Try the model
APP

App State 34 at Charlotte 11

CLT
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 29, 2025 · Bank of America Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CLT
modelCLT aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playCLT scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+1.5CLT 2.4%C. Harrell pass to E. Jai Mason for 16yds for a TD (two-point conversionpass attempt good)AWAY 27 - HOME 11 · Q4 10:25
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:25 · C. Harrell pass to E. Jai Mason for 16 yds for a TD (two-point conversion pass attempt good)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseDefense timeoutsOffense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factor
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4Play 121Pregame prior−5.5Home team on offense−31.5Defense timeouts−11.5Offense timeouts−15.5Score differential−13.3Garbage-time factor−11.5
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 1:21: Liam Boyd 42 yd FG GOOD — APP win probability +1.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  2. TD · Q2 8:38: Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK) — APP win probability +6.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  3. TD · Q2 0:36: AJ Swann pass complete to Jaden Barnes for 10 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK) — APP win probability +0.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  4. TD · Q4 10:25: C. Harrell pass to E. Jai Mason for 16 yds for a TD (two-point conversion pass attempt good) — CLT win probability +1.5 pts (now 2%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:25: Justin Olson pass complete to Gus McGee for no gain to the CLT 35 — CLT win probability +4.5 pts (now 7%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CLT made the numbers' call on 7 of 10APP made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 13:32CLT 4th & 12 at CLT 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:51APP 4th & 12 at CLT 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    63.5%−0.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:58APP 4th & 22 at CLT 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    72.0%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:56CLT 4th & 4 at CLT 12, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:21CLT 4th & 4 at APP 25, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.0%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    31.8%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:56CLT 4th & 10 at CLT 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:12CLT 4th & 8 at CLT 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:07APP 4th & 1 at CLT 15, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    67.7%−1.3
    83% to make
    Punt
    62.2%−6.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00APP 4th & 4 at CLT 29, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.1%−0.6
    58% to make
    Punt
    81.0%−4.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:22APP 4th & 8 at CLT 17, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    79.5%−6.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00CLT 4th & 6 at APP 48, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00CLT 4th & 10 at APP 33, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    3.2%
    49% to make
    Punt
    3.0%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:25CLT 4th & 6 at APP 16, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%−<0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:43CLT 4th & 7 at CLT 28, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−1.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:20APP 4th & 14 at APP 19, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−2.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:50CLT 4th & 14 at CLT 21, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLT made the numbers' call on 0 of 1APP made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 8:38APP Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:36APP Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:25CLT Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    4.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CLTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:2822% → 21%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
21.7%
Charlotte Penalty, false start (Jesse Ramil) to the CLT 20Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
21.7%
CJ Stokes run for 2 yds to the CLT 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+1
21.7%
CJ Stokes run for 1 yd to the CLT 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
21.7%
Conner Harrell pass incomplete to Jake Young, broken up by Kevin Abrams-VerwayneSimilar
Q1 13:32
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+5
20.9%
Bronson Long punt for 32 yds , Jaden Barnes returns for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 44 yds · 16:0978% → 80%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
21.7%
AJ Swann pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 5 yds to the APP 41Similar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
19.8%
Jaquari Lewis run for 5 yds to the APP 15Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+21
19.9%
AJ Swann pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 21 yds to the APP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+15
19.0%
AJ Swann pass complete to William Fowles for 15 yds to the CLT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
18.8%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to William FowlesSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-2
18.8%
AJ Swann pass complete to Doopah Coleman for a loss of 2 yards to the CLT 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 46
0
19.4%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Doopah ColemanSimilar
Q2 13:51
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
20.2%
Ian Ratliff punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:3479% → 79%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
50
+18
21.1%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jaden Barnes for 18 yds to the CLT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
21.1%
Rashod Dubinion run for no gain to the CLT 32Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
21.1%
AJ Swann pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 3 yds to the CLT 29Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 7
OPP 29
-10
21.2%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to William Fowles App State Penalty, Offensive holding (Shamarr Jackson) to the CLT 39Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 17
OPP 39
0
21.2%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Dalton StromanSimilar
Q1 13:32
4TH & 17
OPP 39
-5
21.3%
App State Penalty, delay of game (Jaelin Willis) to the CLT 44Similar
Q1 11:58
4TH & 22
OPP 44
0
20.8%
Ian Ratliff punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:0221% → 20%
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
20.7%
CJ Stokes run for 3 yds to the CLT 9Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 7
OWN 9
-4
20.7%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Gus McGee for no gain to the CLT 9 Charlotte Penalty, Offensive holding (Jesse Ramil) to the CLT 5Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 11
OWN 5
-2
20.7%
Conner Harrell pass complete to CJ Stokes for a loss of 2 yards to the CLT 3Similar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 13
OWN 3
+9
20.6%
CJ Stokes run for 9 yds to the CLT 12Similar
Q1 9:56
4TH & 4
OWN 12
0
19.9%
Bronson Long punt for 50 yds , Jaden Barnes returns for no gain to the APP 12 App State Penalty, personal foul (Brooks Yurachek) to the APP 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 5FUMBLE
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:0780% → 80%
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
20.3%
Rashod Dubinion run for 12 yds to the APP 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
20.2%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Jaden BarnesSimilar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+9
20.3%
AJ Swann pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 9 yds to the APP 40Similar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+1
20.1%
Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd to the APP 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
20.1%
Rashod Dubinion run for no gain to the APP 41 App State Penalty, Offensive holding (Shamarr Jackson) to the APP 31Similar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 20
OWN 31
+10
20.3%
AJ Swann run for 10 yds to the APP 41Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
20.2%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Dalton Stroman, broken up by Dwight Bootle IISimilar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+59
20.4%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jaden Barnes for 59 yds AJ Swann fumbled, recovered by CLT Ja'Qurious ConleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 6FG
14 plays · 55 yds · 6:2820% → 19%
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
20.1%
Charlotte Penalty, false start (Dallas Shirley) to the CLT 15Similar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+1
20.1%
Conner Harrell run for 1 yd to the CLT 16Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+3
20.1%
Conner Harrell run for 3 yds to the CLT 19Similar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+12
19.9%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Sean Brown for 12 yds to the CLT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
20.2%
CJ Stokes run for 7 yds to the CLT 38Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+1
20.6%
CJ Stokes run for 1 yd to the CLT 39Similar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+2
20.4%
CJ Stokes run for 2 yds to the CLT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
20.5%
CJ Stokes run for 3 yds to the CLT 44Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+3
20.6%
Cameren Smith run for 3 yds to the CLT 47Similar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+22
20.4%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 7 yds to the APP 46 App State Penalty, roughing passer (Caleb Sandstrom) to the APP 31Similar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
20.8%
Conner Harrell pass incomplete to CJ StokesSimilar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+9
20.8%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Justin Olson for 9 yds to the APP 22Similar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 1
OPP 22
-3
20.8%
CJ Stokes run for a loss of 3 yards to the APP 25Similar
Q1 1:21
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+42
19.1%
Liam Boyd 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:5518% → 17%
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
18.1%
Cameren Smith run for 9 yds to the CLT 21Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+2
18.2%
Cameren Smith run for 2 yds to the CLT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
18.2%
Conner Harrell pass incomplete to Ta'ir BrooksSimilar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
18.1%
Cameren Smith run for no gain to the CLT 23Similar
Q2 13:51
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
17.7%
Conner Harrell pass incomplete to Jayden McGowanSimilar
Q2 11:56
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
16.9%
Bronson Long punt for 57 yds , Jaden Barnes returns for no gain to the APP 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 3:1881% → 87%
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
19.4%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Izayah CummingsSimilar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+15
19.5%
AJ Swann pass complete to William Fowles for 15 yds to the APP 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
19.1%
Rashod Dubinion run for 8 yds to the APP 42Similar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+7
18.6%
AJ Swann pass complete to David Larkins for 7 yds to the APP 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+18
18.4%
AJ Swann pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 18 yds to the CLT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
18.2%
Rashod Dubinion run for 5 yds to the CLT 28Similar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 5
OPP 28
0
18.3%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Rashod DubinionSimilar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+26
18.9%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jaden Barnes for 26 yds to the CLT 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
12.7%
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 24 yds · 3:2613% → 13%
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
13.3%
CJ Stokes run for 3 yds to the CLT 28Similar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
13.4%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 9 yds to the CLT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
13.7%
Conner Harrell pass incomplete to Javen Nicholas, broken up by Ethan JohnsonSimilar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
13.6%
CJ Stokes run for 9 yds to the CLT 46Similar
Q2 8:38
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+1
14.2%
CJ Stokes run for 1 yd to the CLT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
14.3%
Conner Harrell pass incomplete to Jayden McGowan, broken up by Elijah Mc-CantosSimilar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+7
14.2%
CJ Stokes run for 7 yds to the APP 46Similar
Q2 8:38
3RD & 3
OPP 46
-5
14.4%
Charlotte Penalty, false start (Mason Bowers) to the CLT 49Similar
Q2 8:38
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
13.9%
Conner Harrell pass incomplete to Gus McGeeSimilar
Q2 5:12
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
12.7%
Bronson Long punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 4:3687% → 94%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
12.6%
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the APP 22Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+7
12.7%
Rashod Dubinion run for 7 yds to the APP 29Similar
Q2 5:12
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
12.4%
Rashod Dubinion run for 5 yds to the APP 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
12.2%
Rashod Dubinion run for 5 yds to the APP 39Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+8
11.8%
AJ Swann pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 8 yds to the APP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
11.7%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Jaquari LewisSimilar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+17
11.8%
AJ Swann pass complete to David Larkins for 17 yds to the CLT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
11.6%
AJ Swann pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 12 yds to the CLT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
7.3%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to William FowlesSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+5
7.3%
Rashod Dubinion run for 5 yds to the CLT 19Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+4
7.3%
AJ Swann pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 4 yds to the CLT 15Similar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+2
7.9%
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the CLT 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
7.2%
AJ Swann pass complete to David Larkins for 3 yds to the CLT 10Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+10
6.3%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jaden Barnes for 10 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 11INT
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:364% → 7%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
4.1%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Miles Burris for 17 yds to the CLT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
6.6%
Conner Harrell pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12FG
4 plays · -16 yds · 0:3697% → 96%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
3.2%
AJ Swann pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 3 yds to the CLT 32Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
3.2%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Dalton StromanSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+3
3.3%
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the CLT 29Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+47
4.0%
Dominic De Freitas 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 4:3893% → 93%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
7.5%
Rashod Dubinion run for 6 yds to the APP 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
7.5%
Rashod Dubinion run for 6 yds to the APP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
7.2%
AJ Swann pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+9
6.9%
AJ Swann pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 9 yds to the CLT 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+3
6.7%
Jaquari Lewis run for 3 yds to the CLT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+19
6.9%
AJ Swann run for 19 yds to the CLT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
7.0%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Jaden BarnesSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
7.3%
Rashod Dubinion run for 5 yds to the CLT 14Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 14
-3
7.0%
AJ Swann pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for a loss of 3 yards to the CLT 17Similar
Q3 10:22
4TH & 8
OPP 17
+35
6.6%
Dominic De Freitas 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 14TD
15 plays · 57 yds · 19:358% → 7%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
7.8%
Rod Gainey Jr. run for 4 yds to the APP 48Similar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
0.9%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Joey Bearns III for no gain to the CLT 43 Charlotte Penalty, Offensive holding (Dallas Shirley) to the CLT 33Similar
Q3 0:49
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+15
0.9%
Conner Harrell sacked by Nick Campbell for 0 yards to the CLT 48 Conner Harrell fumbled, recovered by APP Jaelin Willis , return for 0 yards for a 1ST down App State Penalty, personal foul (Jaelin Willis) to the CLT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
0.9%
Conner Harrell run for no gain to the CLT 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
0.8%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Rod Gainey Jr.Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 48
+15
0.8%
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to E. Jai Mason for a 1ST down App State Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Ethan Johnson) to the APP 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
0.9%
Rod Gainey Jr. run for 1 yd to the APP 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 32
-2
0.9%
Javen Nicholas run for a loss of 2 yards to the APP 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 34
+1
0.9%
CJ Stokes run for 1 yd to the APP 33Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 33
+13
0.8%
Conner Harrell pass complete to E. Jai Mason for 13 yds to the APP 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
1.0%
CJ Stokes run for 3 yds to the APP 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 17
-1
1.0%
Conner Harrell run for a loss of 1 yard to the APP 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+2
0.9%
Conner Harrell run for 2 yds to the APP 16Similar
Q4 10:25
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+16
2.4%
C. Harrell pass to E. Jai Mason for 16 yds for a TD (two-point conversion pass attempt good)Similar
Q4 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-62
7.0%
Justin Olson pass complete to Gus McGee for no gain to the CLT 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:398% → 6%
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
7.8%
CJ Stokes run for no gain to the CLT 25 Charlotte Penalty, Offensive holding (Jonny King) to the CLT 15Similar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+5
7.7%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Miles Burris for 5 yds to the CLT 20Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
7.7%
Conner Harrell pass incomplete to Jake YoungSimilar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+8
7.5%
Conner Harrell pass complete to CJ Stokes for 8 yds to the CLT 28Similar
Q3 8:43
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+5
6.3%
Bronson Long punt for 50 yds , Jaden Barnes returns for 5 yds to the APP 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 4:1695% → 95%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
5.4%
AJ Swann pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 12 yds to the APP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
5.0%
Rashod Dubinion run for 4 yds to the APP 43Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+9
5.1%
AJ Swann pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 9 yds to the CLT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
5.0%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+13
5.0%
Rashod Dubinion run for 13 yds to the CLT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
5.0%
Jaquari Lewis run for 8 yds to the CLT 27Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+1
5.1%
Jaquari Lewis run for 1 yd to the CLT 26Similar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+2
5.3%
AJ Swann pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 2 yds to the CLT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
5.2%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+5
5.2%
Jaquari Lewis run for 5 yds to the CLT 19Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+19
4.8%
AJ Swann pass complete to Kanen Hamlett for 19 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 17FUMBLE
5 plays · 72 yds · 1:466% → 8%
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
6.2%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Cameren Smith for 5 yds to the CLT 30Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+47
6.3%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Justin Olson for 47 yds to the APP 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+20
8.8%
Conner Harrell run for 17 yds to the APP 6 App State Penalty, personal foul (Elijah Mc-Cantos) to the APP 3Similar
Q3 2:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-12
8.3%
Cameren Smith run for a loss of 12 yards to the APP 23 Cameren Smith fumbled, recovered by APP Kyle Arnholt Smith,Cameren rush left for loss of 12 yards to the APP15, fumble by Smith,Cameren recovered by APP Arnholt,Kyle, Arnholt,Kyle rush (King,Jonny).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:2195% → 95%
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
4.6%
Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd to the APP 24Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
4.7%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to William FowlesSimilar
Q3 2:41
3RD & 9
OWN 24
-5
4.8%
AJ Swann sacked by Macyo Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the APP 19Similar
Q3 1:20
4TH & 14
OWN 19
0
4.7%
Ian Ratliff punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:2596% → 98%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
4.4%
Rashod Dubinion run for 10 yds to the APP 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
4.3%
AJ Swann pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 12 yds to the APP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
3.9%
Rashod Dubinion run for 9 yds to the CLT 44Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+1
3.6%
Jaquari Lewis run for 1 yd to the CLT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
3.8%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Rashod DubinionSimilar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
3.8%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jaden Barnes for 5 yds to the CLT 38Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+15
3.9%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to William Fowles for a 1ST down Charlotte Penalty, Defensive pass interference (CJ Clinkscales Jr.) to the CLT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
3.8%
Jaquari Lewis run for 7 yds to the CLT 16Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+2
3.8%
Jaquari Lewis run for 2 yds to the CLT 14Similar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 1
OPP 14
-10
2.2%
Rashod Dubinion run for no gain to the CLT 14 App State Penalty, Offensive holding (Jayden Ramsey) to the CLT 24Similar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 11
OPP 24
+22
2.3%
AJ Swann pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 22 yds to the CLT 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
2.1%
AJ Swann run for 1 yd to the CLT 1Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
2.3%
Rashod Dubinion run for no gain to the CLT 1Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.9%
AJ Swann pass complete to Alex Sanchez for 1 yd for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:105% → 4%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
4.9%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Rod Gainey Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the CLT 21Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
4.7%
Conner Harrell pass incomplete to Justin Olson, broken up by Kevin Abrams-VerwayneSimilar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
4.5%
Conner Harrell pass incomplete to Javen Nicholas, broken up by Juan BerchalSimilar
Q4 2:50
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+1
3.8%
Bronson Long punt for 50 yds , Jaden Barnes returns for 1 yd to the APP 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 42 yds · 0:5098% → 100%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
1.7%
Khamani Alexander run for 3 yds to the APP 33Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+17
1.7%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
50
+3
0.5%
Khamani Alexander run for 3 yds to the CLT 47Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
0.5%
JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Chris Lawson Jr., broken up by Thai BaldwinSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
0.5%
Khamani Alexander run for 6 yds to the CLT 22Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+2
0.5%
Khamani Alexander run for 2 yds to the CLT 22Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
0.5%
JJ Kohl pass incomplete to Joshua Acord, broken up by Gavin WillisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:38
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)
-6.1
TD · Q4 10:25
Justin Olson pass complete to Gus McGee for no gain to the CLT 35
+4.5
FG · Q1 1:21
Liam Boyd 42 yd FG GOOD
-1.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com