Try the model
AF

Air Force 42 at Colorado State 21

CSU
2025 · Week 14 · Nov 28, 2025 · Canvas Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:08 · (02:11) #98 I.Hankins field goal attempt from 36 yards NO GOOD (H: #83 B.Hansen, LS: #56 W.Himebauch), clock 02:08
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Home team on offense−20.2Score differential−10.6Garbage-time factor−6.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.8Pregame prior−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:48: (08:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass complete deep left to #6 T.Lanier caught at AFA00, for 20 yards to the AFA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:48, 1ST DOWN #98 I.Hankins kick attempt good (H: #83 B.Hansen, LS: #46 C.Pettitt) — CSU win probability +9.0 pts (now 44%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:14: (00:16) #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:14 #96 R.Tubbs kick attempt good (H: #97 L.Freer, LS: #49 K.Chesney) — AF win probability +15.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:19: (11:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 L.Avant rush middle for 5 yards gain to the AFA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:19, 1ST DOWN #98 I.Hankins kick attempt good (H: #83 B.Hansen, LS: #56 W.Himebauch) — CSU win probability +12.3 pts (now 40%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:37: (05:39) #11 J.Johnson rush right for 3 yards gain to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:37 #96 R.Tubbs kick attempt good (H: #97 L.Freer, LS: #49 K.Chesney) — AF win probability +13.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:51: (06:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass complete short left to #81 R.Beers caught at AFA22, for 38 yards to the AFA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:51, 1ST DOWN #98 I.Hankins kick attempt good (H: #83 B.Hansen, LS: #56 W.Himebauch) — CSU win probability +4.8 pts (now 7%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 12:39AF 4th & 2 at AF 33, tied
    Close callWent for it · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.4%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    54.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:50AF 4th & 3 at AF 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    53.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:34CSU 4th & 15 at CSU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:11CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:48AF 4th & 6 at AF 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−1.0
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:08CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.0%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:55CSU 4th & 2 at AF 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    32.1%−2.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    33.3%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:56AF 4th & 1 at CSU 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    66.5%−2.9
    89% to make
    Punt
    58.0%−11.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:08CSU 4th & 7 at AF 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−5.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:05CSU 4th & 2 at CSU 10, down 21
    Close callPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 9:50AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:26AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:48CSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:14AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:19CSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:37AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:09AF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:51CSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:05AF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 5:0453% → 54%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
47.4%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Johnson rush right for 3 yards gain to the AFA28 (#12 J.Bellah)Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
47.5%
(14:25) No Huddle #5 D.Carson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AFA31 (#44 J.Ellis; #55 A.Laurich)Similar
Q1 13:41
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
47.6%
(13:42) Shotgun #8 K.Frew rush right for 5 yards gain to the AFA36 (#13 J.Jarmolowich) PENALTY AFA Personal Foul offsetting CSU Personal Foul offsetting. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 13:14
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
47.7%
(13:20) Shotgun #11 J.Johnson rush right for 2 yards gain to the AFA33 (#11 J.Naborne)Similar
Q1 12:39
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+5
47.9%
(12:46) #12 T.Gist rush middle for 5 yards gain to the AFA38 (#11 J.Naborne; #40 O.Long), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
47.9%
(12:00) #5 D.Carson rush left for 4 yards gain to the AFA42 (#23 J.Mitchell; #7 L.Joe)Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+2
47.8%
(11:25) #11 J.Johnson rush right for 2 yards gain to the AFA44 (#7 L.Joe)Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+1
47.9%
(10:38) Shotgun #11 J.Johnson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AFA45 (#40 O.Long; #56 K.Agurs)Similar
Q1 9:50
4TH & 3
OWN 45
+55
46.3%
(09:59) #11 J.Johnson pass complete short right to #88 B.Fleischmann caught at CSU49, for 55 yards to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:50, 1ST DOWN #96 R.Tubbs kick attempt good (H: #97 L.Freer, LS: #49 K.Chesney)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:1047% → 46%
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
46.6%
(09:50) Shotgun #25 L.Avant rush left for 1 yard gain to the CSU26 (#15 J.Adams; #5 R.Jones)Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-6
46.4%
(09:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau sacked for loss of 6 yards to the CSU20 (#15 J.Adams)Similar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
45.8%
(08:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass incomplete short right to #25 L.Avant thrown to CSU13 broken up by #15 J.AdamsSimilar
Q1 8:34
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
45.7%
(08:44) #83 B.Hansen punt 48 yards to the AFA32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 6:0154% → 61%
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
45.7%
(08:33) #2 O.Allen rush right for 4 yards gain to the AFA36 (#11 J.Naborne)Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+16
45.3%
(07:55) #11 J.Johnson pass complete short right to #18 Q.Smith caught at AFA46, for 16 yards to the CSU48 (#4 J.Rogers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
44.8%
(07:16) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 9 yards gain to the CSU39 (#11 J.Naborne; #13 J.Jarmolowich)Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+6
44.6%
(06:35) #2 O.Allen rush right for 6 yards gain to the CSU33 (#91 M.Tuitele), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
44.4%
(05:49) #2 O.Allen rush left for 3 yards gain to the CSU30 (#45 R.Edmonson)Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+3
44.1%
(05:05) #2 O.Allen rush right for 3 yards gain to the CSU27 (#47 D.Rodriguez; #29 J.Vincent)Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+7
44.0%
(04:26) #8 K.Frew rush left for 7 yards gain to the CSU20 (#12 J.Bellah), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
43.6%
(03:42) #2 O.Allen rush left for 1 yard gain to the CSU19 (#52 P.Tangelo)Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+13
43.4%
(03:03) #44 R.Conti rush left for 13 yards gain to the CSU06 (#32 D.Hagans), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
38.6%
(02:30) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:26 #96 R.Tubbs kick attempt good (H: #97 L.Freer, LS: #49 K.Chesney)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0340% → 39%
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
39.9%
(02:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass complete short left to #24 J.Kinnard caught at CSU20, for 1 yard loss to the CSU24 (#8 D.Daley; #26 A.Perez)Similar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
39.6%
(01:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.Kinnard rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CSU28 (#5 R.Jones; #99 A.Swartz)Similar
Q1 1:21
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
39.1%
(01:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass incomplete short left to #6 T.Lanier thrown to CSU46Similar
Q1 1:11
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
39.0%
(01:21) #83 B.Hansen punt 45 yards to the AFA27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1762% → 62%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
38.4%
(01:11) #5 D.Carson rush right for 2 yards gain to the AFA29 (#44 J.Ellis; #22 C.Davis)Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 8
OWN 29
-4
38.1%
(00:35) #11 J.Johnson sacked for loss of 4 yards to the AFA25 (#40 O.Long)Similar
Q1 0:12
3RD & 12
OWN 25
+6
38.4%
(00:12) #11 J.Johnson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the AFA31 (#91 M.Tuitele)Similar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
38.2%
(15:00) #97 L.Freer punt 44 yards to the CSU25, out of bounds at CSU25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:5139% → 44%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
38.6%
(14:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass complete short middle to #25 L.Avant caught at CSU30, for 6 yards to the CSU31 (#6 B.Fletcher; #33 B.Bujnoch)Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-4
38.9%
(14:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau sacked for loss of 4 yards to the CSU27 (#45 J.Reese)Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
37.3%
(13:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass complete short left to #6 T.Lanier caught at CSU25, for 7 yards to the CSU34 (#15 J.Adams; #36 M.Mustell)Similar
Q2 13:08
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
36.9%
(13:14) No Huddle #7 J.Brousseau rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CSU35 (#8 D.Daley; #96 P.Zdroik), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
36.4%
(12:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass complete short left to #6 T.Lanier caught at CSU40, for 5 yards to the CSU40 (#2 K.Johnson)Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+6
35.9%
(12:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass complete short right to #8 L.Brown caught at CSU45, for 6 yards to the CSU46 (#9 L.Brown; #6 B.Fletcher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
35.9%
(11:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CSU50 (#33 B.Bujnoch)Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 6
50
0
35.6%
(10:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass incomplete short middle to #6 T.Lanier thrown to AFA45 broken up by #8 D.DaleySimilar
Q2 10:34
3RD & 6
50
+4
35.3%
(10:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass complete short right to #81 R.Beers caught at CSU50, for 4 yards to the AFA46 (#8 D.Daley; #5 R.Jones)Similar
Q2 9:55
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+18
34.6%
(10:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass complete short left to #10 T.Maher caught at AFA31, for 18 yards to the AFA28 (#26 A.Perez), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
35.1%
(09:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass incomplete deep left to #81 R.Beers thrown to AFA07Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+8
35.0%
(09:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass complete short left to #6 T.Lanier caught at AFA29, for 8 yards to the AFA20 (#5 R.Jones), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 8:48
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+20
44.0%
(08:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass complete deep left to #6 T.Lanier caught at AFA00, for 20 yards to the AFA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:48, 1ST DOWN #98 I.Hankins kick attempt good (H: #83 B.Hansen, LS: #46 C.Pettitt)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7TD
23 plays · 75 yds · 8:2459% → 80%
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
41.0%
(08:48) #21 C.Harris rush left for 8 yards gain to the AFA33 (#40 O.Long)Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
38.7%
(08:10) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 5 yards gain to the AFA38 (#39 D.Gill; #55 A.Laurich), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
37.9%
(07:35) #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 5 yards gain to the AFA43 (#13 J.Jarmolowich; #91 M.Tuitele)Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+6
37.5%
(06:58) Shotgun #21 C.Harris rush right for 6 yards gain to the AFA49 (#7 L.Joe), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
37.0%
(06:23) #2 O.Allen rush right for 6 yards gain to the CSU45 (#11 J.Naborne; #32 D.Hagans)Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+6
36.3%
(05:41) #2 O.Allen rush right for 6 yards gain to the CSU39 (#52 P.Tangelo; #45 R.Edmonson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
36.1%
(04:58) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CSU34 (#7 L.Joe; #32 D.Hagans)Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+3
35.4%
(04:19) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CSU31 (#47 D.Rodriguez)Similar
Q2 3:31
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+6
35.5%
(03:36) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CSU25 (#47 D.Rodriguez; #45 R.Edmonson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
33.4%
(02:54) #2 O.Allen rush right for 1 yard gain to the CSU24 (#7 L.Joe; #23 J.Mitchell)Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+12
33.1%
(02:13) #8 K.Frew rush right for 12 yards gain to the CSU12 (#40 O.Long; #77 J.Moran), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
33.2%
(02:00) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CSU09 (#40 O.Long; #91 M.Tuitele)Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 7
OPP 9
-1
32.3%
(01:56) #21 C.Harris rush right for 1 yard loss to the CSU10 (#44 J.Ellis; #23 J.Mitchell)Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+9
32.8%
(01:51) #11 J.Johnson rush middle for 9 yards gain to the CSU01 (#39 D.Gill; #7 L.Joe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
31.4%
(01:13) #11 J.Johnson rush middle for 0 yards to the CSU01 (#4 J.Rogers; #40 O.Long)Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
31.0%
(00:22) #11 J.Johnson rush middle for 0 yards to the CSU01 (#40 O.Long; #23 J.Mitchell)Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
19.6%
(00:16) #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:14 #96 R.Tubbs kick attempt good (H: #97 L.Freer, LS: #49 K.Chesney)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8END OF HALF
4 plays · 37 yds · 0:0025% → 27%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
25.1%
(00:14) Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass complete short left to #6 T.Lanier caught at CSU23, for 22 yards to the CSU47 lateral to #25 L.Avant for 24 yards gain to the CSU47 (#6 B.Fletcher; #99 A.Swartz), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
27.3%
(00:00) Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass complete short right to #8 L.Brown caught at AFA38, for 15 yards to the AFA38 (#26 A.Perez), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2927% → 40%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
27.0%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass complete short right to #25 L.Avant caught at CSU20, for 5 yards to the CSU30 (#5 R.Jones; #8 D.Daley)Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
27.6%
(14:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass complete short left to #6 T.Lanier caught at CSU29, for 5 yards to the CSU35 (#26 A.Perez; #9 L.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
27.1%
(14:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass complete short right to #6 T.Lanier caught at CSU40, for 6 yards to the CSU41 (#9 L.Brown), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+8
28.4%
(13:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass complete short right to #25 L.Avant caught at CSU36, for 8 yards to the CSU49 (#2 K.Johnson; #96 P.Zdroik), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
28.4%
(13:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass complete short right to #10 T.Maher caught at AFA49, for 3 yards to the AFA48 (#2 K.Johnson), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+38
27.3%
(12:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass complete short right to #25 L.Avant caught at CSU49, for 38 yards to the AFA10 (#95 D.Grobe), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
28.0%
(12:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass incomplete short right to #81 R.Beers thrown to AFA00 QB hurried by #6 B.FletcherSimilar
Q3 12:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
28.0%
(12:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 L.Avant rush middle for 5 yards gain to the AFA05 (#8 D.Daley; #6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q3 11:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
40.3%
(11:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 L.Avant rush middle for 5 yards gain to the AFA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:19, 1ST DOWN #98 I.Hankins kick attempt good (H: #83 B.Hansen, LS: #56 W.Himebauch)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10TD
10 plays · 45 yds · 5:3568% → 85%
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
32.2%
(11:18) #5 D.Carson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CSU42 (#11 J.Naborne)Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+3
32.0%
(10:32) #5 D.Carson rush right for 3 yards gain to the CSU39 (#40 O.Long; #44 J.Ellis)Similar
Q3 9:41
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+21
32.1%
(09:46) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 21 yards gain to the CSU18 (#17 C.Blocker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
30.8%
(09:04) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CSU12 (#40 O.Long; #13 J.Jarmolowich)Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+3
30.5%
(08:23) #5 D.Carson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CSU09 (#23 J.Mitchell; #44 J.Ellis)Similar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 1
OPP 9
0
30.1%
(07:50) #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 0 yards to the CSU09 (#11 J.Naborne; #91 M.Tuitele)Similar
Q3 6:56
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+3
31.3%
(07:00) #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CSU06 (#40 O.Long; #39 D.Gill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
28.8%
(06:24) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges rush right for 3 yards gain to the CSU03 (#40 O.Long; #12 J.Bellah)Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
15.1%
(05:39) #11 J.Johnson rush right for 3 yards gain to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:37 #96 R.Tubbs kick attempt good (H: #97 L.Freer, LS: #49 K.Chesney)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11MISSED FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:1919% → 17%
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
18.5%
(05:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass complete short right to #8 L.Brown caught at CSU33, for 12 yards to the CSU37 (#2 K.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
18.3%
(05:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass complete short right to #8 L.Brown caught at CSU35, for 1 yard to the CSU38 (#5 R.Jones)Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+12
17.9%
(04:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass complete short left to #6 T.Lanier caught at CSU50, for 12 yards to the CSU50, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
50
+29
18.6%
(03:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass complete short middle to #25 L.Avant caught at AFA49, for 29 yards to the AFA21 (#5 R.Jones), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
19.5%
(03:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass incomplete short right to #81 R.Beers thrown to AFA10 QB hurried by #8 D.DaleySimilar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
19.2%
(03:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass incomplete short right to #24 J.Kinnard thrown to AFA08Similar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+4
18.5%
(03:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass complete short right to #25 L.Avant caught at AFA25, for 4 yards to the AFA17 (#5 R.Jones) PENALTY CSU Holding (#8 L.Brown) 10 yards from AFA17 to AFA27Similar
Q3 2:41
3RD & 16
OPP 27
+9
17.4%
(02:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass complete short right to #25 L.Avant caught at AFA30, for 9 yards to the AFA18 (#9 L.Brown; #6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q3 2:08
4TH & 7
OPP 18
+36
17.2%
(02:11) #98 I.Hankins field goal attempt from 36 yards NO GOOD (H: #83 B.Hansen, LS: #56 W.Himebauch), clock 02:08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 7:5186% → 98%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
14.0%
(02:08) #21 C.Harris rush right for 8 yards gain to the AFA28 (#52 P.Tangelo)Similar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+1
13.3%
(01:27) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AFA29 (#40 O.Long; #52 P.Tangelo)Similar
Q3 0:40
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
13.5%
(00:46) #2 O.Allen rush right for 3 yards gain to the AFA32 (#44 J.Ellis; #13 J.Jarmolowich), 1ST DOWN. #67 C.Cooley injured on the playSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
12.7%
(00:15) #2 O.Allen rush left for 2 yards gain to the AFA34 (#56 K.Agurs; #44 J.Ellis)Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+27
12.4%
(15:00) #11 J.Johnson pass complete deep middle to #18 Q.Smith caught at CSU40, for 27 yards to the CSU39 (#13 J.Jarmolowich), 1ST DOWN. #18 Q.Smith injured on the playSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
9.9%
(14:21) #3 M.Long rush left for 7 yards gain to the CSU32 (#29 J.Vincent)Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+12
8.8%
(13:38) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 12 yards gain to the CSU20 (#13 J.Jarmolowich), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
8.2%
(12:54) #2 O.Allen rush left for 3 yards gain to the CSU17 (#47 D.Rodriguez; #49 J.Tafia)Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+5
7.7%
(12:08) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CSU12 (#77 J.Moran; #40 O.Long)Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+4
7.2%
(11:22) #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CSU08 (#40 O.Long; #96 J.Murray), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
6.8%
(10:41) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CSU06 (#39 D.Gill; #12 J.Bellah)Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
6.1%
(09:57) #4 K.Hodges rush right for 0 yards to the CSU06 (#40 O.Long)Similar
Q4 9:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
1.6%
(09:14) #11 J.Johnson pass complete short right to #88 B.Fleischmann caught at CSU00, for 6 yards to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:09 #96 R.Tubbs kick attempt good (H: #97 L.Freer, LS: #49 K.Chesney)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:092% → 7%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
2.3%
(09:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass complete short middle to #10 T.Maher caught at CSU28, for 11 yards to the CSU36 (#36 M.Mustell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
2.3%
(08:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CSU38 (#96 P.Zdroik; #99 A.Swartz)Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+12
2.2%
(08:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass complete short left to #6 T.Lanier caught at CSU48, for 12 yards to the CSU50 (#9 L.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
50
+12
2.0%
(07:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass complete short left to #25 L.Avant caught at CSU47, for 12 yards to the AFA38, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
6.8%
(06:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass complete short left to #81 R.Beers caught at AFA22, for 38 yards to the AFA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:51, 1ST DOWN #98 I.Hankins kick attempt good (H: #83 B.Hansen, LS: #56 W.Himebauch)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14TD
11 plays · 56 yds · 3:3795% → 99%
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
5.1%
(06:47) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AFA48 (#7 L.Joe; #77 J.Moran)Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+2
4.7%
(06:05) #2 O.Allen rush right for 2 yards gain to the AFA50 (#7 L.Joe; #44 J.Ellis)Similar
Q4 5:13
3RD & 4
50
+5
4.5%
(05:19) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CSU45 (#44 J.Ellis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
3.9%
(04:38) Shotgun #2 O.Allen rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CSU42 (#44 J.Ellis)Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+27
3.3%
(03:55) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 27 yards gain to the CSU15 (#13 J.Jarmolowich), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
2.7%
(03:22) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CSU12 (#12 J.Bellah)Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+5
2.7%
(03:18) #4 K.Hodges rush right for 5 yards gain to the CSU07 (#12 J.Bellah; #77 J.Moran)Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+7
0.6%
(03:09) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 7 yards gain to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:05, 1ST DOWN #96 R.Tubbs kick attempt good (H: #97 L.Freer, LS: #49 K.Chesney)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:550% → 0%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
0.4%
(03:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass incomplete short right to #81 R.Beers thrown to CSU20 QB hurried by #30 I.HubertSimilar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 10
OWN 2
0
0.4%
(03:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass incomplete short left to #10 T.Maher thrown to CSU05Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 10
OWN 2
+8
0.3%
(02:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass complete short left to #88 J.McIntyre caught at CSU08, for 8 yards to the CSU10 (#26 A.Perez; #33 B.Bujnoch)Similar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 2
OWN 10
0
0.3%
(02:12) #83 B.Hansen punt 67 yards to the AFA23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16Uncategorized
4 plays · 17 yds · 1:14100% → 100%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
0.5%
(02:00) Shotgun #12 T.Gist rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AFA25 (#12 J.Bellah; #77 J.Moran)Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+7
0.5%
(01:14) Shotgun #25 T.Latham rush right for 7 yards gain to the AFA32 (#40 O.Long; #7 L.Joe)Similar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+8
0.5%
(00:39) #12 T.Gist rush middle for 8 yards gain to the AFA40 (#13 J.Jarmolowich), 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:14
(00:16) #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:14 #96 R.Tubbs kick attempt good (H: #97 L.Freer, LS: #49 K.Chesney)
-15.4
TD · Q3 5:37
(05:39) #11 J.Johnson rush right for 3 yards gain to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:37 #96 R.Tubbs kick attempt good (H: #97 L.Freer, LS: #49 K.Chesney)
-13.8
TD · Q3 11:19
(11:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 L.Avant rush middle for 5 yards gain to the AFA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:19, 1ST DOWN #98 I.Hankins kick attempt good (H: #83 B.Hansen, LS: #56 W.Himebauch)
+12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com