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UNM

New Mexico 20 at Air Force 3

AF
2025 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreUNM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:40 · (03:46) #96 D.Hughes punt 46 yards to the AF15 fair catch by #21 C.Harris at AF15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingTime per score still needed
+51.0+25.50−25.5−51.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 99Home team on offense−28.8Score differential−13.6Garbage-time factor−7.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.8Time per score still needed−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:08: (12:08) Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:08, 1ST DOWN #13 L.Drzewiecki kick attempt good (H: #35 C.Steinkamp, LS: #47 T.Dubuc) — UNM win probability +9.5 pts (now 66%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 9:42: (09:41) #13 L.Drzewiecki field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #35 C.Steinkamp, LS: #47 T.Dubuc), clock 09:42 — AF win probability +5.7 pts (now 37%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 9:42: Timeout New Mexico, clock 09:42 — AF win probability +2.8 pts (now 40%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: (15:00) #31 G.Glasgow kickoff 65 yards to the AF00, Touchback — UNM win probability +11.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 10:12: (10:11) #96 R.Tubbs field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #97 L.Freer, LS: #49 K.Chesney), clock 10:12 — AF win probability +2.1 pts (now 6%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UNM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 5:59AF 4th & 15 at AF 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%
    average punt
  2. Q2 9:42UNM 4th & 6 at AF 10, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    62.3%−6.9
    average punt
  3. Q2 6:36AF 4th & 2 at AF 44, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.8%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:58AF 4th & 6 at UNM 35, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    24.8%−0.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    24.1%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:09UNM 4th & 5 at AF 38, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    80.7%−0.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    80.0%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:11AF 4th & 2 at UNM 42, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    18.0%−2.5
    30% to make
    Punt
    18.8%−1.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:48AF 4th & 4 at UNM 33, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    17.6%−0.9
    49% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:40UNM 4th & 15 at UNM 39, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−2.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:59AF 4th & 1 at UNM 24, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    6.6%−2.2
    68% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−8.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:12AF 4th & 10 at UNM 10, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.6%
    88% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−4.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:59UNM 4th & 5 at AF 6, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    91.0%−4.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:53UNM 4th & 2 at UNM 48, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    97.7%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:27UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:08UNM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 5:2850% → 51%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
50.5%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UNM29 (#6 B.Fletcher; #33 B.Bujnoch)Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
50.6%
(14:21) Shotgun #2 J.Layne rush left for 8 yards gain to the UNM37 (#30 I.Hubert), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+22
50.6%
(13:33) Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush right for 22 yards gain to the AF41 (#5 R.Jones; #9 L.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+20
50.6%
(12:55) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete deep left to #6 K.Johnson caught at AF21, for 20 yards to the AF21 (#9 L.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
50.5%
(12:15) Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush right for 5 yards gain to the AF16 (#36 M.Mustell; #9 L.Brown)Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+4
50.5%
(11:34) Shotgun #13 J.Laubstein rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AF12 (#91 L.Rawls, Jr.)Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+1
50.6%
(10:54) Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AF11 (#5 R.Jones; #33 B.Bujnoch), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
50.5%
(10:10) Shotgun #2 J.Layne rush right for 1 yard loss to the AF12 (#33 B.Bujnoch)Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
48.6%
(09:34) Shotgun #2 J.Layne rush right for 12 yards gain to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:27, 1ST DOWN #13 L.Drzewiecki kick attempt good (H: #35 C.Steinkamp, LS: #47 T.Dubuc)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 3:2049% → 48%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
49.3%
(09:24) No Huddle #5 D.Carson rush right for 1 yard gain to the AF26 (#10 D.Agu; #92 B.Booker)Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
49.0%
(08:38) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges pass complete short right to #21 C.Harris caught at AF28, for 5 yards to the AF31 (#7 T.Combs)Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+14
48.9%
(08:09) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges rush right for 14 yards gain to the AF45 (#5 F.Edwards), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
49.4%
(07:27) #8 K.Frew rush left for 4 yards gain to the AF49 (#12 J.Johnson)Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 6
OWN 49
-9
49.6%
(06:42) #18 Q.Smith rush right for 9 yards loss to the AF40 (#94 J.Mciver; #18 C.Coleman)Similar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 15
OWN 40
0
48.4%
(06:01) #4 K.Hodges pass incomplete deep left to #21 C.Harris thrown to UNM35 QB hurried by #45 B.KarhuSimilar
Q1 5:59
4TH & 15
OWN 40
+12
48.2%
(05:59) #97 L.Freer punt 44 yards to the UNM16 #4 D.McKinney return 12 yards to the UNM28 (#46 Z.Juckel) PENALTY UNM Holding (#24 A.Levells) 10 yards from UNM28 to UNM18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3TD
18 plays · 82 yds · 8:3552% → 66%
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+17
47.9%
(05:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short right to #1 D.Bankston caught at UNM16, for 17 yards to the UNM35 (#6 B.Fletcher), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
47.4%
(05:15) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short left to #1 D.Bankston caught at UNM30, for 8 yards to the UNM43 (#36 M.Mustell), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+1
46.9%
(04:47) Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush left for 1 yard gain to the UNM44 (#30 I.Hubert)Similar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+1
46.7%
(04:06) Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush left for 1 yard gain to the UNM45 (#6 B.Fletcher; #33 B.Bujnoch), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
46.3%
(03:23) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short right to #1 D.Bankston caught at UNM42, for 2 yards to the UNM47 (#36 M.Mustell; #9 L.Brown)Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+8
46.0%
(02:39) Shotgun #13 J.Laubstein rush middle for 8 yards gain to the AF45 (#36 M.Mustell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
45.3%
(01:56) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass incomplete deep left to #6 K.Johnson thrown to AF14Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+8
45.3%
(01:52) Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush left for 8 yards gain to the AF37 (#6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q1 1:28
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+5
45.1%
PENALTY UNM False Start (#6 K.Johnson) 5 yards from AF37 to AF42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+9
45.3%
(01:13) Shotgun #2 J.Layne rush middle for 9 yards gain to the AF33 (#9 L.Brown; #6 B.Fletcher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-3
44.5%
(00:27) Shotgun #2 J.Layne sacked for loss of 3 yards to the AF36 (#30 I.Hubert)Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 13
OPP 36
+7
44.8%
(14:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short left to #7 D.Thomas caught at AF31, for 7 yards to the AF29 (#5 R.Jones)Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+6
44.4%
(14:17) Shotgun #2 J.Layne rush middle for 6 yards gain to the AF23 (#6 B.Fletcher; #33 B.Bujnoch), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
43.7%
(13:32) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short left to #6 K.Johnson caught at AF20, for 12 yards to the AF11 (#4 M.Seiken), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
43.5%
(12:56) Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush middle for 9 yards gain to the AF02 (#33 B.Bujnoch; #6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
34.0%
(12:08) Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:08, 1ST DOWN #13 L.Drzewiecki kick attempt good (H: #35 C.Steinkamp, LS: #47 T.Dubuc)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4FUMBLE
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:4440% → 39%
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
39.5%
(12:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Hodges rush left for 3 yards loss to the AF22 (#1 K.James-Newby)Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
38.9%
(11:24) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges pass incomplete deep middle to #81 J.Dawson thrown to UNM36 QB hurried by #6 J.EckSimilar
Q2 11:14
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-8
38.6%
(11:14) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges sacked for loss of 8 yards to the AF14 (#45 B.Karhu), fumble by #4 K.Hodges recovered by UNM #17 O.Olorunfunmi at AF14, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5FG
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2367% → 63%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
33.2%
(11:14) Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AF11 (#30 I.Hubert)Similar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+1
32.7%
(10:35) Shotgun #13 J.Laubstein rush left for 1 yard gain to the AF10 (#26 A.Perez)Similar
Q2 9:46
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
31.7%
(09:49) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass incomplete short left to #6 K.Johnson thrown to AF04 QB hurried by #5 R.JonesSimilar
Q2 9:42
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+27
37.4%
(09:41) #13 L.Drzewiecki field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #35 C.Steinkamp, LS: #47 T.Dubuc), clock 09:42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6DOWNS
15 plays · 30 yds · 7:3736% → 30%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
36.1%
(09:39) No Huddle #4 K.Hodges rush right for 4 yards gain to the AF29 (#6 J.Eck)Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
35.6%
(09:00) #5 D.Carson rush left for 7 yards gain to the AF36 (#97 C.Thumlert; #18 C.Coleman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
35.9%
(08:16) #4 K.Hodges rush right for 5 yards gain to the AF41 (#1 K.James-Newby; #10 D.Agu)Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+1
36.5%
(07:44) #5 D.Carson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AF42 (#6 J.Eck)Similar
Q2 6:58
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+2
35.6%
(07:02) #4 K.Hodges rush right for 2 yards gain to the AF44 (#10 D.Agu)Similar
Q2 6:36
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+3
34.9%
(06:42) #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AF47 (#22 D.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
35.0%
(06:04) #5 D.Carson rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UNM46 (#7 T.Combs)Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+1
35.0%
(05:21) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNM45 (#20 K.McCray)Similar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+6
33.6%
(04:42) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UNM39 (#17 O.Olorunfunmi; #16 M.Swaim), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
33.3%
(03:59) #21 C.Harris rush left for 1 yard gain to the UNM38 (#16 M.Swaim)Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+3
32.8%
(03:21) Shotgun #21 C.Harris rush left for 3 yards gain to the UNM35 (#16 M.Swaim)Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
31.9%
(02:45) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges rush right for 0 yards to the UNM35 (#21 A.Brawley; #6 J.Eck)Similar
Q2 1:58
4TH & 6
OPP 35
0
30.3%
(02:00) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges sacked for loss of 10 yards to the UNM45 (#18 C.Coleman), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7DOWNS
9 plays · 17 yds · 0:4480% → 77%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
20.1%
(01:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 6 yards gain to the AF49 (#5 R.Jones)Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+6
18.9%
(01:34) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short right to #4 D.McKinney caught at AF46, for 6 yards to the AF43 (#6 B.Fletcher), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
18.6%
PENALTY UNM False Start (#7 D.Thomas) 5 yards from AF43 to AF48. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 15
OPP 48
0
18.9%
(01:29) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass incomplete short right to #6 K.Johnson thrown to AF30Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 15
OPP 48
0
18.9%
(01:21) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass incomplete short left to #4 D.McKinney thrown to AF50 QB hurried by #96 P.ZdroikSimilar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 15
OPP 48
+10
19.1%
(01:18) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short right to #7 D.Thomas caught at AF49, for 10 yards to the AF38 (#33 B.Bujnoch), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:09
4TH & 5
OPP 38
0
22.6%
(01:09) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass incomplete deep right to #7 D.Thomas thrown to AF10, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8END OF HALF
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:5829% → 36%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
28.9%
(01:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Frew rush right for 3 yards loss to the AF35 (#20 K.McCray)Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+10
26.1%
(00:30) #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 10 yards gain to the AF45 (#1 K.James-Newby)Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+5
27.9%
(00:16) #4 K.Hodges rush right for 5 yards gain to the AF50 (#5 F.Edwards), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
50
0
35.8%
(00:09) #4 K.Hodges pass incomplete short left to #8 K.Frew thrown to AF48Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 10
50
-2
35.5%
(00:04) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges sacked for loss of 2 yards to the AF48 (#1 K.James-Newby, #92 B.Booker)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9DOWNS
15 plays · 42 yds · 7:0325% → 20%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
24.7%
(14:58) No Huddle #4 K.Hodges rush left for 1 yard gain to the AF26 (#6 J.Eck)Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
23.7%
(14:20) #8 K.Frew rush right for 2 yards gain to the AF28 (#18 C.Coleman; #21 A.Brawley)Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+11
23.2%
(13:43) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 11 yards gain to the AF39 (#13 C.Gant Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
24.2%
(13:09) #21 C.Harris rush right for 8 yards gain to the AF47 (#6 J.Eck), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+3
24.6%
(12:36) #5 D.Carson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AF50 (#20 K.McCray), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:51
1ST & 10
50
0
23.8%
(11:53) #5 D.Carson rush middle for 0 yards to the AF50 (#10 D.Agu)Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 10
50
+3
23.1%
(11:23) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNM47 (#20 K.McCray)Similar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+5
23.0%
(10:49) #44 R.Conti rush right for 5 yards gain to the UNM42 (#6 J.Eck)Similar
Q3 10:11
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+3
22.3%
(10:16) #4 K.Hodges rush right for 3 yards gain to the UNM39 (#16 M.Swaim), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
22.2%
(09:43) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges rush left for 0 yards to the UNM39 (#16 M.Swaim)Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
21.5%
(09:03) #4 K.Hodges rush left for 2 yards gain to the UNM37 (#18 C.Coleman)Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+4
20.9%
(08:29) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UNM33 (#7 T.Combs; #10 D.Agu)Similar
Q3 7:48
4TH & 4
OPP 33
0
20.4%
(07:48) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges pass incomplete short left to #18 Q.Smith thrown to UNM17 broken up by #21 A.Brawley QB hurried by #18 C.Coleman, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 4:0283% → 86%
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
16.6%
(07:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 9 yards gain to the UNM42 (#26 A.Perez)Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 1
OWN 42
-1
15.0%
(06:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Layne sacked for loss of 1 yard to the UNM41 (#33 B.Bujnoch, #99 A.Swartz)Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+3
14.7%
(06:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNM44 (#96 P.Zdroik), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
13.9%
(05:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 2 yards loss to the UNM42 (#96 P.Zdroik)Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+3
13.4%
(05:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short right to #6 K.Johnson caught at UNM45, for 3 yards to the UNM45 (#4 M.Seiken)Similar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 9
OWN 45
-6
13.0%
(04:26) Shotgun #2 J.Layne sacked for loss of 6 yards to the UNM39 (#30 I.Hubert)Similar
Q3 3:40
4TH & 15
OWN 39
0
13.6%
(03:46) #96 D.Hughes punt 46 yards to the AF15 fair catch by #21 C.Harris at AF15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11FG
23 plays · 75 yds · 8:2215% → 6%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
15.4%
(03:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Frew rush left for 0 yards to the AF15 (#92 B.Booker; #16 M.Swaim)Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+18
14.9%
(03:04) #11 J.Johnson pass complete short right to #21 C.Harris caught at AF14, for 18 yards to the AF33 (#16 M.Swaim), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
15.2%
(02:22) Shotgun #11 J.Johnson rush right for 7 yards gain to the AF40, out of bounds at AF40Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+1
15.8%
(01:49) Shotgun #11 J.Johnson rush left for 1 yard gain to the AF41 (#16 M.Swaim; #28 J.Torres)Similar
Q3 1:07
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+3
15.2%
(01:09) #2 O.Allen rush right for 3 yards gain to the AF44 (#6 J.Eck; #94 J.Mciver), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-8
13.9%
(00:31) Shotgun #11 J.Johnson sacked for loss of 8 yards to the AF36 (#16 M.Swaim)Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 18
OWN 36
+21
11.9%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Johnson pass complete deep middle to #81 J.Dawson caught at UNM43, for 21 yards to the UNM43 (#12 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
13.5%
(14:29) Shotgun #11 J.Johnson pass complete short left to #81 J.Dawson caught at UNM38, for 7 yards to the UNM36 (#12 J.Johnson)Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+3
11.5%
(13:53) #2 O.Allen rush right for 3 yards gain to the UNM33 (#97 C.Thumlert), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
11.9%
(13:19) Shotgun #2 O.Allen rush middle for 0 yards to the UNM33 (#16 M.Swaim; #17 O.Olorunfunmi)Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+8
10.2%
(12:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Johnson rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UNM25 (#10 D.Agu; #5 F.Edwards)Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+1
10.1%
(12:29) #2 O.Allen rush left for 1 yard gain to the UNM24 (#20 K.McCray; #6 J.Eck)Similar
Q4 11:59
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+1
8.5%
(12:04) #11 J.Johnson rush right for 1 yard gain to the UNM23 (#21 A.Brawley; #16 M.Swaim), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
8.4%
(11:28) Shotgun #11 J.Johnson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UNM19 (#21 A.Brawley)Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+9
8.2%
(10:57) #8 K.Frew rush left for 9 yards gain to the UNM10 (#6 J.Eck), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
4.0%
(10:38) No Huddle #11 J.Johnson pass incomplete short right to #88 B.Fleischmann thrown to UNM00 broken up by #16 M.Swaim QB hurried by #92 B.BookerSimilar
Q4 10:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
4.1%
(10:32) No Huddle #11 J.Johnson pass incomplete short left to #88 B.Fleischmann thrown to UNM00Similar
Q4 10:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
4.0%
(10:22) Shotgun #11 J.Johnson rush right for 0 yards to the UNM10, out of bounds at UNM10 PENALTY AF Holding declinedSimilar
Q4 10:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
6.1%
(10:11) #96 R.Tubbs field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #97 L.Freer, LS: #49 K.Chesney), clock 10:12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 12FG
15 plays · 63 yds · 6:0195% → 98%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
5.4%
(10:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush right for 1 yard gain to the UNM32 (#6 B.Fletcher; #99 A.Swartz)Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 9
OWN 32
-1
4.7%
(09:21) Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush left for 1 yard loss to the UNM31 (#96 P.Zdroik)Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+20
4.7%
(08:40) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete deep right to #6 K.Johnson caught at AF49, for 20 yards to the AF49 (#26 A.Perez), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
3.9%
(08:04) Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush left for 15 yards gain to the AF34 (#9 L.Brown), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
3.7%
(07:26) Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush middle for 6 yards gain to the AF28 (#93 A.Tillett)Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+1
3.3%
(06:43) Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AF27 (#33 B.Bujnoch; #15 J.Adams)Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+16
2.2%
(06:23) Shotgun #13 J.Laubstein rush middle for 16 yards gain to the AF11 (#36 M.Mustell; #5 R.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
2.1%
(05:31) Shotgun #13 J.Laubstein rush left for 4 yards gain to the AF07 (#6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
1.8%
(04:49) Shotgun #13 J.Laubstein rush left for 0 yards to the AF07 (#99 A.Swartz; #96 P.Zdroik)Similar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+1
1.3%
(04:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Laubstein rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AF06 (#15 J.Adams)Similar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+23
2.4%
(04:00) #13 L.Drzewiecki field goal attempt from 23 yards GOOD (H: #35 C.Steinkamp, LS: #47 T.Dubuc), clock 03:59Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
1.2%
(03:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Johnson pass intercepted by #12 J.Johnson at UNM40 QB hurried by #1 K.James-Newby #12 J.Johnson return 0 yards to the UNM40 (#18 Q.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 14END OF GAME
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:0197% → 99%
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
2.6%
(03:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush left for 2 yards gain to the UNM42 (#99 A.Swartz)Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+3
2.2%
(03:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNM45 (#33 B.Bujnoch; #26 A.Perez)Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+3
2.1%
(02:16) Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNM48 (#5 R.Jones)Similar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+10
1.1%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Laubstein rush middle for 10 yards gain to the AF42 (#6 B.Fletcher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
0.9%
(01:25) Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AF40 (#59 C.Barnett; #9 L.Brown)Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
0.8%
(00:40) Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush left for 0 yards to the AF40 (#38 T.Hubert)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00
(15:00) #31 G.Glasgow kickoff 65 yards to the AF00, Touchback
-11.6
TD · Q2 12:08
(12:08) Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:08, 1ST DOWN #13 L.Drzewiecki kick attempt good (H: #35 C.Steinkamp, LS: #47 T.Dubuc)
-9.5
FG · Q2 9:42
(09:41) #13 L.Drzewiecki field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #35 C.Steinkamp, LS: #47 T.Dubuc), clock 09:42
+5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com