UNM
New Mexico 20 at Air Force 3
AF2025 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2025 · Falcon Stadium
Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey play
What moved it - hover a play below
Q4 0:00 · End of 4th quarter.
01
UNM has the ball
−32
02
Blowout context favors the offense
−11
03
Market gave AF a 40% pregame chance
−7
04
UNM leading by 17
−4
Play by play - hover to pin the curve
Q1 15:00
(15:00) #96 R.Tubbs kickoff 65 yards to the UNM00, Touchback
0.0
Q1 14:55
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UNM29 (#6 B.Fletcher; #33 B.Bujnoch)
-3.2
Q1 14:12
(14:21) Shotgun #2 J.Layne rush left for 8 yards gain to the UNM37 (#30 I.Hubert), 1ST DOWN
-0.6
Q1 13:29
(13:33) Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush right for 22 yards gain to the AF41 (#5 R.Jones; #9 L.Brown), 1ST DOWN
-0.3
Q1 12:31
(12:55) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete deep left to #6 K.Johnson caught at AF21, for 20 yards to the AF21 (#9 L.Brown), 1ST DOWN
-2.2
Q1 12:10
(12:15) Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush right for 5 yards gain to the AF16 (#36 M.Mustell; #9 L.Brown)
0.0
Q1 11:31
(11:34) Shotgun #13 J.Laubstein rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AF12 (#91 L.Rawls, Jr.)
0.0
Q1 10:51
(10:54) Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AF11 (#5 R.Jones; #33 B.Bujnoch), 1ST DOWN
0.0
Q1 10:06
(10:10) Shotgun #2 J.Layne rush right for 1 yard loss to the AF12 (#33 B.Bujnoch)
0.0
Q1 9:27
(09:34) Shotgun #2 J.Layne rush right for 12 yards gain to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:27, 1ST DOWN #13 L.Drzewiecki kick attempt good (H: #35 C.Steinkamp, LS: #47 T.Dubuc)
-13.2
Q1 9:27
(09:27) #31 G.Glasgow kickoff 62 yards to the AF03 fair catch by #21 C.Harris at AF03
+1.2
Q1 9:19
(09:24) No Huddle #5 D.Carson rush right for 1 yard gain to the AF26 (#10 D.Agu; #92 B.Booker)
+1.6
Q1 8:32
(08:38) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges pass complete short right to #21 C.Harris caught at AF28, for 5 yards to the AF31 (#7 T.Combs)
-0.5
Q1 8:02
(08:09) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges rush right for 14 yards gain to the AF45 (#5 F.Edwards), 1ST DOWN
+0.3
Q1 7:23
(07:27) #8 K.Frew rush left for 4 yards gain to the AF49 (#12 J.Johnson)
+1.9
Q1 6:01
(06:01) #4 K.Hodges pass incomplete deep left to #21 C.Harris thrown to UNM35 QB hurried by #45 B.Karhu
-0.4
Q1 5:43
(05:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short right to #1 D.Bankston caught at UNM16, for 17 yards to the UNM35 (#6 B.Fletcher), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
-3.4
Q1 5:59
(05:59) #97 L.Freer punt 44 yards to the UNM16 #4 D.McKinney return 12 yards to the UNM28 (#46 Z.Juckel) PENALTY UNM Holding (#24 A.Levells) 10 yards from UNM28 to UNM18
+3.4
Q1 5:51
Timeout Air Force, clock 05:51
-0.4
Q1 5:11
(05:15) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short left to #1 D.Bankston caught at UNM30, for 8 yards to the UNM43 (#36 M.Mustell), out of bounds
-2.9
Q1 4:42
(04:47) Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush left for 1 yard gain to the UNM44 (#30 I.Hubert)
-1.0
Q1 4:01
(04:06) Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush left for 1 yard gain to the UNM45 (#6 B.Fletcher; #33 B.Bujnoch), 1ST DOWN
0.0
Q1 3:15
(03:23) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short right to #1 D.Bankston caught at UNM42, for 2 yards to the UNM47 (#36 M.Mustell; #9 L.Brown)
0.0
Q1 2:35
(02:39) Shotgun #13 J.Laubstein rush middle for 8 yards gain to the AF45 (#36 M.Mustell), 1ST DOWN
0.0
Q1 1:54
(01:56) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass incomplete deep left to #6 K.Johnson thrown to AF14
+0.3
Q1 1:47
(01:52) Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush left for 8 yards gain to the AF37 (#6 B.Fletcher)
0.0
Q1 1:28
PENALTY UNM False Start (#6 K.Johnson) 5 yards from AF37 to AF42. NO PLAY
-0.1
Q1 1:47
Timeout New Mexico, clock 01:47
+0.1
Q1 6:42
(06:42) #18 Q.Smith rush right for 9 yards loss to the AF40 (#94 J.Mciver; #18 C.Coleman)
+4.9
Q1 1:05
(01:13) Shotgun #2 J.Layne rush middle for 9 yards gain to the AF33 (#9 L.Brown; #6 B.Fletcher), 1ST DOWN
-5.0
Q1 0:27
(00:27) Shotgun #2 J.Layne sacked for loss of 3 yards to the AF36 (#30 I.Hubert)
+0.1
Q1 0:00
End of 1st quarter.
0.0
Q2 14:52
(14:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short left to #7 D.Thomas caught at AF31, for 7 yards to the AF29 (#5 R.Jones)
+0.1
Q2 14:10
(14:17) Shotgun #2 J.Layne rush middle for 6 yards gain to the AF23 (#6 B.Fletcher; #33 B.Bujnoch), 1ST DOWN
0.0
Q2 13:25
(13:32) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short left to #6 K.Johnson caught at AF20, for 12 yards to the AF11 (#4 M.Seiken), 1ST DOWN
0.0
Q2 12:54
(12:56) Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush middle for 9 yards gain to the AF02 (#33 B.Bujnoch; #6 B.Fletcher)
0.0
Q2 12:08
(12:08) Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:08, 1ST DOWN #13 L.Drzewiecki kick attempt good (H: #35 C.Steinkamp, LS: #47 T.Dubuc)
-8.4
Q2 12:08
(12:08) #31 G.Glasgow kickoff 61 yards to the AF04 fair catch by #21 C.Harris at AF04
+0.7
Q2 11:58
(12:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Hodges rush left for 3 yards loss to the AF22 (#1 K.James-Newby)
+1.2
Q2 11:24
(11:24) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges pass incomplete deep middle to #81 J.Dawson thrown to UNM36 QB hurried by #6 J.Eck
0.0
Q2 11:14
(11:14) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges sacked for loss of 8 yards to the AF14 (#45 B.Karhu), fumble by #4 K.Hodges recovered by UNM #17 O.Olorunfunmi at AF14, End Of Play
+0.3
Q2 11:05
(11:14) Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AF11 (#30 I.Hubert)
-1.9
Q2 10:29
(10:35) Shotgun #13 J.Laubstein rush left for 1 yard gain to the AF10 (#26 A.Perez)
-0.7
Q2 9:46
(09:49) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass incomplete short left to #6 K.Johnson thrown to AF04 QB hurried by #5 R.Jones
-0.6
Q2 9:42
(09:41) #13 L.Drzewiecki field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #35 C.Steinkamp, LS: #47 T.Dubuc), clock 09:42
+0.7
Q2 9:42
(09:42) #31 G.Glasgow kickoff 65 yards to the AF00, Touchback
-0.2
Q2 9:42
Timeout New Mexico, clock 09:42
-0.1
Q2 9:35
(09:39) No Huddle #4 K.Hodges rush right for 4 yards gain to the AF29 (#6 J.Eck)
+0.3
Q2 8:56
(09:00) #5 D.Carson rush left for 7 yards gain to the AF36 (#97 C.Thumlert; #18 C.Coleman), 1ST DOWN
0.0
Q2 8:12
(08:16) #4 K.Hodges rush right for 5 yards gain to the AF41 (#1 K.James-Newby; #10 D.Agu)
-0.2
Q2 7:41
(07:44) #5 D.Carson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AF42 (#6 J.Eck)
+0.4
Q2 6:58
(07:02) #4 K.Hodges rush right for 2 yards gain to the AF44 (#10 D.Agu)
0.0
Q2 6:36
(06:42) #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AF47 (#22 D.Johnson), 1ST DOWN
+0.2
Q2 6:01
(06:04) #5 D.Carson rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UNM46 (#7 T.Combs)
-0.1
Q2 5:10
(05:21) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNM45 (#20 K.McCray)
+0.8
Q2 4:38
(04:42) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UNM39 (#17 O.Olorunfunmi; #16 M.Swaim), 1ST DOWN
-0.9
Q2 3:55
(03:59) #21 C.Harris rush left for 1 yard gain to the UNM38 (#16 M.Swaim)
+0.3
Q2 3:18
(03:21) Shotgun #21 C.Harris rush left for 3 yards gain to the UNM35 (#16 M.Swaim)
0.0
Q2 2:41
(02:45) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges rush right for 0 yards to the UNM35 (#21 A.Brawley; #6 J.Eck)
0.0
Q2 1:58
(02:00) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges sacked for loss of 10 yards to the UNM45 (#18 C.Coleman), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
-0.2
Q2 1:53
(01:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 6 yards gain to the AF49 (#5 R.Jones)
-2.0
Q2 1:58
Timeout Air Force, clock 01:58
+2.0
Q2 1:31
(01:34) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short right to #4 D.McKinney caught at AF46, for 6 yards to the AF43 (#6 B.Fletcher), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
-2.0
Q2 1:31
PENALTY UNM False Start (#7 D.Thomas) 5 yards from AF43 to AF48. NO PLAY
-0.2
Q2 1:27
(01:29) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass incomplete short right to #6 K.Johnson thrown to AF30
+0.2
Q2 1:21
(01:21) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass incomplete short left to #4 D.McKinney thrown to AF50 QB hurried by #96 P.Zdroik
0.0
Q2 1:14
(01:18) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short right to #7 D.Thomas caught at AF49, for 10 yards to the AF38 (#33 B.Bujnoch), out of bounds
+0.1
Q2 1:09
(01:09) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass incomplete deep right to #7 D.Thomas thrown to AF10, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
-0.2
Q2 1:14
Timeout New Mexico, clock 01:14
+0.2
Q2 1:02
(01:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Frew rush right for 3 yards loss to the AF35 (#20 K.McCray)
+1.0
Q2 1:09
Timeout New Mexico, clock 01:09
-1.2
Q2 0:26
(00:30) #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 10 yards gain to the AF45 (#1 K.James-Newby)
+0.5
Q2 0:13
(00:16) #4 K.Hodges rush right for 5 yards gain to the AF50 (#5 F.Edwards), 1ST DOWN
+0.5
Q2 0:09
(00:09) #4 K.Hodges pass incomplete short left to #8 K.Frew thrown to AF48
-0.1
Q2 0:13
Timeout Air Force, clock 00:13
0.0
Q2 0:04
(00:04) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges sacked for loss of 2 yards to the AF48 (#1 K.James-Newby, #92 B.Booker)
0.0
Q2 0:00
End of 2nd quarter.
0.0
Q3 15:00
(15:00) #31 G.Glasgow kickoff 65 yards to the AF00, Touchback
-1.3
Q3 14:51
(14:58) No Huddle #4 K.Hodges rush left for 1 yard gain to the AF26 (#6 J.Eck)
-0.4
Q3 14:15
(14:20) #8 K.Frew rush right for 2 yards gain to the AF28 (#18 C.Coleman; #21 A.Brawley)
0.0
Q3 13:39
(13:43) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 11 yards gain to the AF39 (#13 C.Gant Jr.), 1ST DOWN
0.0
Q3 13:03
(13:09) #21 C.Harris rush right for 8 yards gain to the AF47 (#6 J.Eck), out of bounds
+0.7
Q3 12:34
(12:36) #5 D.Carson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AF50 (#20 K.McCray), 1ST DOWN
-0.4
Q3 11:51
(11:53) #5 D.Carson rush middle for 0 yards to the AF50 (#10 D.Agu)
0.0
Q3 11:15
(11:23) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNM47 (#20 K.McCray)
0.0
Q3 10:44
(10:49) #44 R.Conti rush right for 5 yards gain to the UNM42 (#6 J.Eck)
+0.5
Q3 10:11
(10:16) #4 K.Hodges rush right for 3 yards gain to the UNM39 (#16 M.Swaim), 1ST DOWN
-0.9
Q3 9:39
(09:43) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges rush left for 0 yards to the UNM39 (#16 M.Swaim)
0.0
Q3 9:01
(09:03) #4 K.Hodges rush left for 2 yards gain to the UNM37 (#18 C.Coleman)
0.0
Q3 8:25
(08:29) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UNM33 (#7 T.Combs; #10 D.Agu)
0.0
Q3 7:48
(07:48) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges pass incomplete short left to #18 Q.Smith thrown to UNM17 broken up by #21 A.Brawley QB hurried by #18 C.Coleman, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
0.0
Q3 7:42
(07:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 9 yards gain to the UNM42 (#26 A.Perez)
-1.4
Q3 7:48
Timeout Air Force, clock 07:48
+1.4
Q3 6:10
(06:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNM44 (#96 P.Zdroik), 1ST DOWN
-2.0
Q3 6:57
(06:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Layne sacked for loss of 1 yard to the UNM41 (#33 B.Bujnoch, #99 A.Swartz)
+0.3
Q3 5:40
(05:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 2 yards loss to the UNM42 (#96 P.Zdroik)
-0.3
Q3 4:48
(05:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short right to #6 K.Johnson caught at UNM45, for 3 yards to the UNM45 (#4 M.Seiken)
0.0
Q3 4:21
(04:26) Shotgun #2 J.Layne sacked for loss of 6 yards to the UNM39 (#30 I.Hubert)
0.0
Q3 3:40
(03:46) #96 D.Hughes punt 46 yards to the AF15 fair catch by #21 C.Harris at AF15
-0.7
Q3 3:34
(03:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Frew rush left for 0 yards to the AF15 (#92 B.Booker; #16 M.Swaim)
+1.6
Q3 3:40
Timeout New Mexico, clock 03:40
-1.6
Q3 2:57
(03:04) #11 J.Johnson pass complete short right to #21 C.Harris caught at AF14, for 18 yards to the AF33 (#16 M.Swaim), 1ST DOWN
+1.6
Q3 2:19
(02:22) Shotgun #11 J.Johnson rush right for 7 yards gain to the AF40, out of bounds at AF40
0.0
Q3 1:46
(01:49) Shotgun #11 J.Johnson rush left for 1 yard gain to the AF41 (#16 M.Swaim; #28 J.Torres)
+0.9
Q3 1:07
(01:09) #2 O.Allen rush right for 3 yards gain to the AF44 (#6 J.Eck; #94 J.Mciver), 1ST DOWN
-0.4
Q3 0:31
(00:31) Shotgun #11 J.Johnson sacked for loss of 8 yards to the AF36 (#16 M.Swaim)
-1.3
Q3 0:00
End of 3rd quarter.
0.0
Q4 14:45
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Johnson pass complete deep middle to #81 J.Dawson caught at UNM43, for 21 yards to the UNM43 (#12 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWN
-1.4
Q4 14:24
(14:29) Shotgun #11 J.Johnson pass complete short left to #81 J.Dawson caught at UNM38, for 7 yards to the UNM36 (#12 J.Johnson)
+0.6
Q4 13:49
(13:53) #2 O.Allen rush right for 3 yards gain to the UNM33 (#97 C.Thumlert), 1ST DOWN
-1.3
Q4 13:15
(13:19) Shotgun #2 O.Allen rush middle for 0 yards to the UNM33 (#16 M.Swaim; #17 O.Olorunfunmi)
+0.2
Q4 12:52
(12:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Johnson rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UNM25 (#10 D.Agu; #5 F.Edwards)
0.0
Q4 13:08
Timeout Air Force, clock 13:08
0.0
Q4 12:26
(12:29) #2 O.Allen rush left for 1 yard gain to the UNM24 (#20 K.McCray; #6 J.Eck)
0.0
Q4 11:59
(12:04) #11 J.Johnson rush right for 1 yard gain to the UNM23 (#21 A.Brawley; #16 M.Swaim), 1ST DOWN
-0.1
Q4 11:25
(11:28) Shotgun #11 J.Johnson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UNM19 (#21 A.Brawley)
0.0
Q4 10:54
(10:57) #8 K.Frew rush left for 9 yards gain to the UNM10 (#6 J.Eck), 1ST DOWN
0.0
Q4 10:38
(10:38) No Huddle #11 J.Johnson pass incomplete short right to #88 B.Fleischmann thrown to UNM00 broken up by #16 M.Swaim QB hurried by #92 B.Booker
0.0
Q4 10:51
Timeout Air Force, clock 10:51
0.0
Q4 10:32
(10:32) No Huddle #11 J.Johnson pass incomplete short left to #88 B.Fleischmann thrown to UNM00
0.0
Q4 10:22
(10:22) Shotgun #11 J.Johnson rush right for 0 yards to the UNM10, out of bounds at UNM10 PENALTY AF Holding declined
0.0
Q4 10:12
(10:11) #96 R.Tubbs field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #97 L.Freer, LS: #49 K.Chesney), clock 10:12
+2.1
Q4 10:07
(10:10) #96 R.Tubbs kickoff 48 yards to the UNM17 #8 D.Buchanan return 14 yards to the UNM31 (#20 J.Tomescko)
-0.7
Q4 10:12
Timeout Air Force, clock 10:12
+0.7
Q4 10:00
(10:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush right for 1 yard gain to the UNM32 (#6 B.Fletcher; #99 A.Swartz)
+0.1
Q4 9:18
(09:21) Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush left for 1 yard loss to the UNM31 (#96 P.Zdroik)
-0.4
Q4 8:33
(08:40) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete deep right to #6 K.Johnson caught at AF49, for 20 yards to the AF49 (#26 A.Perez), 1ST DOWN
0.0
Q4 7:58
(08:04) Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush left for 15 yards gain to the AF34 (#9 L.Brown), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
0.0
Q4 7:23
(07:26) Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush middle for 6 yards gain to the AF28 (#93 A.Tillett)
0.0
Q4 6:40
(06:43) Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AF27 (#33 B.Bujnoch; #15 J.Adams)
0.0
Q4 6:15
(06:23) Shotgun #13 J.Laubstein rush middle for 16 yards gain to the AF11 (#36 M.Mustell; #5 R.Jones), 1ST DOWN
+0.1
Q4 6:28
Timeout New Mexico, clock 06:28
0.0
Q4 5:26
(05:31) Shotgun #13 J.Laubstein rush left for 4 yards gain to the AF07 (#6 B.Fletcher)
0.0
Q4 4:42
(04:49) Shotgun #13 J.Laubstein rush left for 0 yards to the AF07 (#99 A.Swartz; #96 P.Zdroik)
0.0
Q4 4:01
(04:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Laubstein rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AF06 (#15 J.Adams)
+0.5
Q4 4:05
Timeout New Mexico, clock 04:05
-0.5
Q4 3:59
(04:00) #13 L.Drzewiecki field goal attempt from 23 yards GOOD (H: #35 C.Steinkamp, LS: #47 T.Dubuc), clock 03:59
+0.5
Q4 4:02
Timeout Air Force, clock 04:02
-2.1
Q4 3:55
(03:59) #31 G.Glasgow kickoff 58 yards to the AF07 #21 C.Harris return 18 yards to the AF25 (#26 C.McBean) PENALTY UNM UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#33 R.Kpai) 15 yards from AF25 to AF40
+2.1
Q4 3:41
(03:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush left for 2 yards gain to the UNM42 (#99 A.Swartz)
+0.9
Q4 2:55
(03:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNM45 (#33 B.Bujnoch; #26 A.Perez)
0.0
Q4 2:12
(02:16) Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNM48 (#5 R.Jones)
0.0
Q4 1:53
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Laubstein rush middle for 10 yards gain to the AF42 (#6 B.Fletcher), 1ST DOWN
+0.1
Q4 2:00
Timeout New Mexico, clock 02:00
+0.4
Q4 3:53
(03:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Johnson pass intercepted by #12 J.Johnson at UNM40 QB hurried by #1 K.James-Newby #12 J.Johnson return 0 yards to the UNM40 (#18 Q.Smith)
-4.4
Q4 1:20
(01:25) Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AF40 (#59 C.Barnett; #9 L.Brown)
+4.0
Q4 0:40
(00:40) Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush left for 0 yards to the AF40 (#38 T.Hubert)
0.0
Q4 0:00
End of 4th quarter.
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 9:27
(09:34) Shotgun #2 J.Layne rush right for 12 yards gain to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:27, 1ST DOWN #13 L.Drzewiecki kick attempt good (H: #35 C.Steinkamp, LS: #47 T.Dubuc)
-13.2
TD · Q2 12:08
(12:08) Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:08, 1ST DOWN #13 L.Drzewiecki kick attempt good (H: #35 C.Steinkamp, LS: #47 T.Dubuc)
-8.4
KEY PLAY · Q1 1:05
(01:13) Shotgun #2 J.Layne rush middle for 9 yards gain to the AF33 (#9 L.Brown; #6 B.Fletcher), 1ST DOWN
-5