Try the model
SJSU

San José State 10 at Nevada 55

NEV
2025 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025 · Mackay Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreSJSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:20 · (11:44) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short left to #5 D.Thomas caught at SJSU12, for 25 yards to the SJSU05 (#21 C.Cox III), 1ST DOWN
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 128Home team on offense+35.4Score differential+25.3Pregame prior−5.1Blowout margin+10.9Garbage-time factor+12.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+11.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:24: (09:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass intercepted by #0 N.Jackson at Nevada34 #0 N.Jackson return 66 yards to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:24 #84 J.McFadden kick attempt good (H: #39 B.Ettridge, LS: #51 C.Stack) — NEV win probability +2.1 pts (now 29%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 6:20: (06:24) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short middle to #13 C.Purdy caught at SJSU10, for 7 yards to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:20 #84 J.McFadden kick attempt good (H: #39 B.Ettridge, LS: #51 C.Stack) — NEV win probability +4.5 pts (now 37%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:21: (12:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short right to #41 C.Ramseur caught at SJSU33, for 30 yards to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:21, 1ST DOWN #84 J.McFadden kick attempt good (H: #39 B.Ettridge, LS: #51 C.Stack) — NEV win probability +11.2 pts (now 61%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 10:49: (10:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Purdy rush middle for 13 yards gain to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:49, 1ST DOWN #84 J.McFadden kick attempt good (H: #39 B.Ettridge, LS: #51 C.Stack) — NEV win probability +15.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 8:12: (08:13) #99 M.Brown field goal attempt from 46 yards GOOD (H: #49 T.Carrizosa, LS: #44 A.Campos), clock 08:12 — SJSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 3%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 4 of 7SJSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 14:11SJSU 4th & 8 at SJSU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:45NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 9, tied
    Close callPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:24SJSU 4th & 4 at NEV 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    70.0%−0.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    70.0%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:13SJSU 4th & 3 at SJSU 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:51NEV 4th & 1 at SJSU 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    46.0%−3.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    44.9%−4.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:43SJSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 44, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.7%−3.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:01SJSU 4th & 15 at SJSU 45, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−4.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:48NEV 4th & 10 at SJSU 49, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:18SJSU 4th & 4 at NEV 48, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.7%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:54NEV 4th & 5 at SJSU 15, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    97.1%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:12SJSU 4th & 6 at NEV 28, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:24NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 17, up 35
    Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:08SJSU 4th & 13 at SJSU 30, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:20NEV 4th & 7 at SJSU 30, up 35
    Close callWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:37NEV 4th & 8 at SJSU 8, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 4 of 5SJSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:24NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:21NEV Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:49NEV Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:57NEV Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:23SJSU Touchdown, down 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:10NEV Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:1175% → 75%
Q1 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
25.0%
(14:22) No Huddle #2 L.Radcliffe rush left for 2 yards gain to the SJSU37 (#0 N.Jackson; #32 D.Labarbera)Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
25.0%
(14:22) No Huddle #5 W.Eget pass incomplete short middle to #4 K.Shoels thrown to SJSU41Similar
Q1 14:16
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
25.1%
(14:22) No Huddle #5 W.Eget pass incomplete short to #85 J.Canaan thrown to SJSU42Similar
Q1 14:11
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
25.2%
(14:11) #49 T.Carrizosa punt 62 yards to the Nevada01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:1625% → 26%
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
25.2%
(14:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #41 C.Ramseur rush middle for 0 yards to the Nevada01 (#9 N.McNeal-Franklin; #7 J.Apalit-Williams)Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+2
25.6%
(13:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #41 C.Ramseur rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Nevada03 (#50 G.Faga)Similar
Q1 12:23
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+6
25.9%
(12:41) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short left to #13 C.Purdy caught at Nevada09, for 6 yards to the Nevada09 (#29 J.Thomas)Similar
Q1 11:45
4TH & 2
OWN 9
+7
26.1%
(11:53) #39 B.Ettridge punt 58 yards to the SJSU33 #13 C.Hoch return 7 yards to the SJSU40 (#0 N.Jackson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3INT TD
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:0874% → 71%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
26.2%
(11:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short left to #85 J.Canaan for 4 yards to the SJSU44, out of bounds at SJSU44Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+1
26.2%
(11:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Chavez-Soto rush left for 1 yard gain to the SJSU45 (#33 S.Combs)Similar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+11
26.6%
(10:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short right to #10 D.Scudero caught at Nevada49, for 11 yards to the Nevada44 (#0 N.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
26.5%
(10:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass incomplete short right to #10 D.Scudero thrown to Nevada32Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
26.6%
(10:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass incomplete short middle to #1 L.Smith thrown to Nevada30Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+6
26.9%
(10:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short right to #14 M.Coleman caught at Nevada38, for 6 yards to the Nevada38 (#14 D.Warnell; #12 B.Snelling)Similar
Q1 9:24
4TH & 4
OPP 38
-66
29.0%
(09:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass intercepted by #0 N.Jackson at Nevada34 #0 N.Jackson return 66 yards to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:24 #84 J.McFadden kick attempt good (H: #39 B.Ettridge, LS: #51 C.Stack)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 4FUMBLE
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
29.2%
(09:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 L.Radcliffe rush middle for 5 yards gain to the SJSU30 fumbled by #2 L.Radcliffe at SJSU35 forced by #5 M.Kenion III recovered by Nevada #10 L.Va'a at SJSU30, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5TD
5 plays · 30 yds · 2:4030% → 37%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
30.1%
(09:14) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short left to #41 C.Ramseur caught at SJSU32, for 1 yard loss to the SJSU31 (#26 E.Powell)Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+8
30.7%
(08:31) Shotgun #41 C.Ramseur rush middle for 8 yards gain to the SJSU23 (#9 N.McNeal-Franklin)Similar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+4
31.2%
(07:48) Shotgun #13 C.Purdy rush middle for 4 yards gain to the SJSU19 (#9 N.McNeal-Franklin; #4 T.Latu), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
32.0%
(07:07) Shotgun #6 C.Jones rush middle for 12 yards gain to the SJSU07 (#1 J.Pollard; #50 G.Faga), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
36.5%
(06:24) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short middle to #13 C.Purdy caught at SJSU10, for 7 yards to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:20 #84 J.McFadden kick attempt good (H: #39 B.Ettridge, LS: #51 C.Stack)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0165% → 64%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.9%
(06:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass incomplete short left thrown to SJSU39Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
35.1%
(06:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Chavez-Soto rush right for 5 yards gain to the SJSU30 (#9 J.Maldonado)Similar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
35.8%
(05:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Chavez-Soto rush right for 2 yards gain to the SJSU32 (#14 D.Warnell)Similar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
36.3%
(05:19) #49 T.Carrizosa punt 46 yards to the Nevada22 fair catch by #18 M.Bellon at Nevada22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7TD
15 plays · 78 yds · 7:4538% → 61%
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
37.7%
(05:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #41 C.Ramseur rush right for 2 yards gain to the Nevada24 (#15 J.Bainer)Similar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+4
38.6%
(04:21) Shotgun #13 C.Purdy rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Nevada28 (#57 J.Stearns)Similar
Q1 3:25
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+16
39.5%
(03:40) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short middle to #5 D.Thomas caught at Nevada43, for 16 yards to the Nevada44 (#26 E.Powell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
41.4%
(02:53) PENALTY Nevada False Start (#52 T.Scott) 5 yards from Nevada44 to Nevada39. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+3
41.4%
(02:33) Shotgun #41 C.Ramseur rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Nevada42 (#26 E.Powell)Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+11
42.6%
(01:51) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short middle to #18 M.Bellon caught at Nevada47, for 11 yards to the SJSU47 (#20 I.Revis)Similar
Q1 0:48
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+5
43.9%
(01:06) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short middle to #13 C.Purdy caught at SJSU49, for 5 yards to the SJSU42 (#15 J.Bainer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
45.0%
(00:28) Shotgun #13 C.Purdy rush middle for 4 yards gain to the SJSU38 (#90 J.Moe)Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+1
45.8%
(15:00) Shotgun #41 C.Ramseur rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SJSU37, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+4
46.2%
(14:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #41 C.Ramseur rush middle for 4 yards gain to the SJSU33 (#3 L.Turner-Gooden; #20 I.Revis)Similar
Q2 13:51
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+3
46.3%
(13:58) Shotgun #41 C.Ramseur rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SJSU30 (#90 J.Moe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
48.9%
(13:07) Shotgun #18 M.Bellon rush right for 0 yards to the SJSU30 (#9 N.McNeal-Franklin)Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
49.6%
(12:32) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass incomplete short right to #9 M.Brown thrown to SJSU28Similar
Q2 12:21
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+30
60.8%
(12:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short right to #41 C.Ramseur caught at SJSU33, for 30 yards to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:21, 1ST DOWN #84 J.McFadden kick attempt good (H: #39 B.Ettridge, LS: #51 C.Stack)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8INT
4 plays · -12 yds · 1:0439% → 38%
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
60.6%
(12:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Chavez-Soto rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SJSU27 (#0 N.Jackson; #96 T.Vaughan)Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
62.1%
(11:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget rush right for 4 yards gain to the SJSU31 (#1 A.Odums)Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+39
62.5%
(11:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass intercepted by #5 M.Kenion III at Nevada48 #5 M.Kenion III return 39 yards to the SJSU20 fumbled by #5 M.Kenion III at SJSU20 forced by #1 L.Smith recovered by Nevada #22 H.McDonald at SJSU13, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9TD
1 play · 13 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
77.7%
(10:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Purdy rush middle for 13 yards gain to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:49, 1ST DOWN #84 J.McFadden kick attempt good (H: #39 B.Ettridge, LS: #51 C.Stack)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 20 yds · 3:4223% → 12%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
77.4%
(10:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 L.Radcliffe rush middle for 10 yards gain to the SJSU35 (#43 N.Ropati), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
78.0%
(10:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass incomplete deep middle to #4 K.Shoels thrown to Nevada36Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-1
78.5%
(10:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 L.Radcliffe rush middle for 1 yard loss to the SJSU34 (#19 S.Cook)Similar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+10
80.5%
(09:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget rush middle for 10 yards gain to the SJSU44 (#8 K.Kinchen)Similar
Q2 8:43
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+6
79.8%
(08:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Chavez-Soto rush middle for 6 yards gain to the SJSU50 (#12 B.Snelling; #22 H.McDonald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
50
0
80.9%
(08:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass incomplete deep right to #4 K.Shoels thrown to Nevada30Similar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 10
50
+5
84.8%
(08:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 L.Radcliffe rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Nevada45 (#96 T.Vaughan)Similar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+10
85.0%
(07:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 L.Radcliffe rush left for 8 yards gain to the Nevada37 (#32 D.Labarbera; #99 T.Witte) PENALTY SJSU Holding (#60 H.Mesa) 10 yards from Nevada45 to SJSU45. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 15
OWN 45
0
87.9%
(07:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass incomplete short right to #15 S.Chavez-Soto thrown to SJSU40Similar
Q2 7:01
4TH & 15
OWN 45
0
88.2%
(07:10) #49 T.Carrizosa punt 55 yards to the Nevada00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:0485% → 90%
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
85.4%
(06:58) Shotgun #41 C.Ramseur rush right for 11 yards gain to the Nevada31 (#29 J.Thomas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
86.8%
(06:13) Shotgun #41 C.Ramseur rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Nevada36 (#29 J.Thomas; #7 J.Apalit-Williams)Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+15
88.2%
(05:27) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short left to #5 D.Thomas caught at Nevada38, for 15 yards to the SJSU49 (#7 J.Apalit-Williams), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
89.3%
(04:47) Shotgun #25 K.Woods rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SJSU47 (#57 J.Stearns; #1 J.Pollard)Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 8
OPP 47
-5
90.1%
(04:03) Shotgun #6 C.Jones rush middle for 5 yards loss to the Nevada48 (#57 J.Stearns)Similar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 13
OWN 48
+3
90.1%
(04:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #41 C.Ramseur rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SJSU49 (#1 J.Pollard)Similar
Q2 3:48
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
89.8%
(03:55) #39 B.Ettridge punt 49 yards to the SJSU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 12DOWNS
10 plays · 35 yds · 3:158% → 9%
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
91.9%
(03:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget rush middle for 9 yards gain to the SJSU29 (#9 J.Maldonado)Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+6
89.1%
(03:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short left to #10 D.Scudero caught at SJSU33, for 6 yards to the SJSU35 (#18 A.Walker), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
90.7%
(02:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget rush for 2 yards gain to the SJSU37 (#44 A.Harnetiaux)Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+1
91.2%
(02:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short to #39 T.Tagovailoa-Amosa caught at SJSU37, for 1 yard to the SJSU38 (#44 A.Harnetiaux)Similar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+8
92.3%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget rush right for 8 yards gain to the SJSU46 (#0 N.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
92.6%
(01:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short right to #1 L.Smith caught at Nevada50, for 8 yards to the Nevada46 (#33 S.Combs)Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+10
90.9%
(01:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass incomplete short right to #1 L.Smith thrown to Nevada45 PENALTY SJSU Holding (#62 T.Chen) 10 yards from Nevada46 to SJSU44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+2
92.5%
(01:05) No Huddle-Shotgun rush right for 2 yards gain to the SJSU46 (#33 S.Combs), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+6
92.8%
(00:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short left to #39 T.Tagovailoa-Amosa caught at Nevada50, for 6 yards to the Nevada48 (#22 H.McDonald)Similar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 4
OPP 48
+3
91.2%
(00:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short left to #1 L.Smith caught at Nevada45, for 3 yards to the Nevada45 (#33 S.Combs), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13FG
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:1095% → 94%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
95.0%
(00:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #41 C.Ramseur rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Nevada49 (#90 J.Moe)Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+18
94.2%
(00:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short middle to #5 D.Thomas caught at SJSU47, for 18 yards to the SJSU33 (#26 E.Powell), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+50
94.4%
(00:01) #84 J.McFadden field goal attempt from 50 yards GOOD (H: #39 B.Ettridge, LS: #51 C.Stack), clock 00:01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15MISSED FG
9 plays · 60 yds · 4:0095% → 97%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.0%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #41 C.Ramseur rush left for 4 yards gain to the Nevada29 (#1 J.Pollard; #9 N.McNeal-Franklin)Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
95.6%
(14:14) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short left to #5 D.Thomas caught at Nevada35, for 6 yards to the Nevada35, out of bounds at Nevada35, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
96.0%
(13:37) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short right to #9 M.Brown caught at Nevada45, for 10 yards to the Nevada45, out of bounds at Nevada45, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+20
96.5%
(12:59) Shotgun #41 C.Ramseur rush left for 20 yards gain to the SJSU35 (#7 J.Apalit-Williams), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY SJSU Face Mask (#7 J.Apalit-Williams) 15 yards from SJSU35 to SJSU20, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
96.9%
(12:25) Shotgun #41 C.Ramseur rush right for 1 yard gain to the SJSU19 (#90 J.Moe; #1 J.Pollard)Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+4
97.3%
(11:47) Shotgun #13 C.Purdy rush right for 4 yards gain to the SJSU15 (#4 T.Latu)Similar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 5
OPP 15
0
97.6%
(11:02) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass incomplete short right to #9 M.Brown thrown to SJSU14 broken up by #1 J.PollardSimilar
Q3 10:54
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+38
97.4%
(10:54) #84 J.McFadden field goal attempt from 38 yards NO GOOD (H: #39 B.Ettridge, LS: #51 C.Stack), clock 10:54Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 16FG
7 plays · 52 yds · 2:342% → 3%
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
97.7%
(10:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Chavez-Soto rush middle for 10 yards gain to the SJSU30 (#9 J.Maldonado), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
97.8%
(10:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short right to #4 K.Shoels caught at SJSU47, for 17 yards to the SJSU47, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
97.8%
(09:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short left to #10 D.Scudero caught at SJSU45, for 6 yards to the Nevada47 (#12 B.Snelling) PENALTY Nevada Horse Collar Tackle (#12 B.Snelling) 15 yards from Nevada47 to Nevada32, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
97.7%
(09:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Chavez-Soto rush right for 2 yards loss to the Nevada34 (#32 D.Labarbera; #9 J.Maldonado)Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 12
OPP 34
+6
97.9%
(09:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short left to #39 T.Tagovailoa-Amosa caught at Nevada30, for 6 yards to the Nevada28 (#33 S.Combs)Similar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 6
OPP 28
0
98.1%
(08:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass incomplete deep right to #4 K.Shoels thrown to Nevada04Similar
Q3 8:12
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+46
97.4%
(08:13) #99 M.Brown field goal attempt from 46 yards GOOD (H: #49 T.Carrizosa, LS: #44 A.Campos), clock 08:12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 5:0698% → 99%
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
98.3%
(08:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short right to #9 M.Brown caught at Nevada41, for 22 yards to the Nevada47 (#7 J.Apalit-Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
98.7%
(07:23) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short right to #85 J.Carpenter caught at Nevada44, for 15 yards to the SJSU38 (#29 J.Thomas; #91 Q.Likio), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
98.9%
(06:30) Shotgun #6 C.Jones rush middle for 2 yards loss to the SJSU40 (#4 T.Latu; #91 Q.Likio)Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+5
99.0%
(05:51) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short left to #5 D.Thomas caught at SJSU35, for 5 yards to the SJSU35 (#0 C.Presley)Similar
Q3 5:18
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+10
99.1%
(05:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass incomplete short right thrown to SJSU30 PENALTY SJSU Holding (#1 J.Pollard) 10 yards from SJSU35 to SJSU25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
99.1%
(05:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #41 C.Ramseur rush middle for 5 yards gain to the SJSU20 (#20 I.Revis)Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+6
99.2%
(04:29) Shotgun #41 C.Ramseur rush middle for 6 yards gain to the SJSU14 (#1 J.Pollard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
99.3%
(03:44) Shotgun #41 C.Ramseur rush left for 3 yards gain to the SJSU11 (#9 N.McNeal-Franklin; #94 M.Hola)Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+11
99.3%
(03:01) Shotgun #41 C.Ramseur rush right for 11 yards gain to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:53, 1ST DOWN #84 J.McFadden kick attempt good (H: #39 B.Ettridge, LS: #51 C.Stack)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 18INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.4%
(02:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass intercepted by #5 M.Kenion III at Nevada08, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0199% → 100%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
99.3%
(02:36) Shotgun #13 C.Purdy rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Nevada10 (#51 S.Langi)Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+2
99.4%
(01:50) Shotgun #25 K.Woods rush left for 2 yards gain to the Nevada12 (#19 D.Tuihalangingie)Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+5
99.4%
(01:08) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short left to #85 J.Carpenter caught at Nevada15, for 5 yards to the Nevada17 (#15 J.Bainer; #9 N.McNeal-Franklin)Similar
Q3 0:24
4TH & 1
OWN 17
-5
99.5%
(00:29) #39 B.Ettridge punt 45 yards to the SJSU38 #29 J.Thomas return for loss of 5 yards to the SJSU33 (#15 K.Babalola)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 1:160% → 0%
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
99.6%
PENALTY SJSU False Start (#74 S.Nomani) 5 yards from SJSU33 to SJSU28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 0:23
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+14
99.6%
(00:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 R.McDaniel pass incomplete short left to #1 L.Smith thrown to SJSU36 PENALTY SJSU Face Mask (#74 S.Nomani) 14 yards from SJSU28 to SJSU14. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 0:21
1ST & 29
OWN 14
-7
99.7%
(00:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 R.McDaniel sacked for loss of 7 yards to the SJSU07 (#92 M.Williams)Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 36
OWN 7
+23
99.7%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Chavez-Soto rush middle for 23 yards gain to the SJSU30 (#18 A.Walker), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 13
OWN 30
0
99.7%
(14:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 R.McDaniel pass incomplete short left to #85 J.Canaan thrown to SJSU34 broken up by #96 T.VaughanSimilar
Q4 14:08
4TH & 13
OWN 30
+14
99.7%
(14:14) #49 T.Carrizosa punt 49 yards to the Nevada21 #88 G.Robinson return 14 yards to the Nevada35 (#4 K.Shoels)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:59100% → 100%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+32
99.6%
(14:08) Shotgun #41 C.Ramseur rush middle for 32 yards gain to the SJSU33 (#18 D.Lee; #26 E.Powell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
99.7%
(13:17) Shotgun #25 K.Woods rush left for 1 yard gain to the SJSU32 (#51 S.Langi; #18 D.Lee)Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 9
OPP 32
0
99.7%
(12:32) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass incomplete deep right to #85 J.Carpenter thrown to SJSU12Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+2
99.7%
(12:26) Shotgun #25 K.Woods rush left for 2 yards gain to the SJSU30 (#57 J.Stearns; #18 D.Lee)Similar
Q4 11:20
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+25
99.7%
(11:44) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short left to #5 D.Thomas caught at SJSU12, for 25 yards to the SJSU05 (#21 C.Cox III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.8%
(10:56) #22 D.Kelley rush middle for 5 yards gain to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:57 #84 J.McFadden kick attempt good (H: #39 B.Ettridge, LS: #51 C.Stack)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 22INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:330% → 0%
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
99.8%
(10:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 R.McDaniel pass complete short left to #85 J.Canaan caught at SJSU15, for 12 yards to the SJSU25 (#1 A.Odums), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
(10:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 R.McDaniel pass incomplete short right to #10 D.Scudero thrown to SJSU36 broken up by #12 B.SnellingSimilar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
(10:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 R.McDaniel pass intercepted by #12 B.Snelling at SJSU50 #12 B.Snelling return 0 yards to the SJSU50 (#4 K.Shoels)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23FG
8 plays · 42 yds · 5:22100% → 100%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
50
+5
99.8%
(10:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 D.Kelley rush middle for 5 yards gain to the SJSU45 (#19 D.Tuihalangingie)Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+10
99.8%
(09:23) Shotgun #22 D.Kelley rush left for 10 yards gain to the SJSU35 (#21 C.Cox III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
99.9%
(08:35) Shotgun #22 D.Kelley rush middle for 7 yards gain to the SJSU28 (#0 C.Presley; #19 D.Tuihalangingie)Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+18
99.9%
(07:49) Shotgun #13 C.Purdy rush left for 18 yards gain to the SJSU10 (#21 C.Cox III; #0 C.Presley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
99.9%
(06:59) Shotgun #22 D.Kelley rush middle for 5 yards gain to the SJSU05 (#21 C.Cox III)Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
99.9%
(06:14) Shotgun #22 D.Kelley rush middle for 5 yards loss to the SJSU10 (#20 I.Revis)Similar
Q4 5:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
99.9%
(05:26) Shotgun #13 C.Purdy rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SJSU08 (#51 S.Langi; #4 T.Latu)Similar
Q4 4:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
99.9%
(04:40) #84 J.McFadden field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD (H: #39 B.Ettridge, LS: #51 C.Stack), clock 04:37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 24TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:020% → 0%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.9%
(04:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Amisone rush middle for 2 yards loss to the SJSU23 (#19 S.Cook)Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+8
100.0%
(04:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Amisone pass complete short right to #4 K.Shoels caught at SJSU31, for 8 yards to the SJSU31, out of bounds at SJSU31Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+23
100.0%
(03:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Amisone pass complete deep left to #85 J.Canaan caught at Nevada46, for 23 yards to the Nevada46, out of bounds at Nevada46, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+22
100.0%
(03:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Amisone pass complete deep right to #4 K.Shoels caught at Nevada24, for 22 yards to the Nevada24 (#24 J.Wyatt Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.9%
(02:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Amisone pass incomplete deep right to #1 L.Smith thrown to Nevada04Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+6
100.0%
(02:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Amisone pass complete short left to #10 D.Scudero caught at Nevada19, for 6 yards to the Nevada18 (#44 A.Harnetiaux)Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+6
100.0%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Amisone rush right for 6 yards gain to the Nevada12 (#17 Z.Abercrombie), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.9%
(01:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Amisone rush left for 12 yards gain to the Nevada00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:23, 1ST DOWN #48 D.Lynch kick attempt good (H: #46 M.Fadelli, LS: #44 A.Campos)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 26END OF GAME
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:290% → 0%
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
100.0%
(01:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #34 V.Teu rush middle for 5 yards gain to the SJSU30 (#44 A.Harnetiaux; #0 N.Jackson)Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
100.0%
(00:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Amisone rush left for 7 yards gain to the SJSU37 (#44 A.Harnetiaux), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
100.0%
(00:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #34 V.Teu rush left for 1 yard gain to the SJSU38 (#19 S.Cook)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:49
(10:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Purdy rush middle for 13 yards gain to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:49, 1ST DOWN #84 J.McFadden kick attempt good (H: #39 B.Ettridge, LS: #51 C.Stack)
+15.1
TD · Q2 12:21
(12:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short right to #41 C.Ramseur caught at SJSU33, for 30 yards to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:21, 1ST DOWN #84 J.McFadden kick attempt good (H: #39 B.Ettridge, LS: #51 C.Stack)
+11.2
TD · Q1 6:20
(06:24) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short middle to #13 C.Purdy caught at SJSU10, for 7 yards to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:20 #84 J.McFadden kick attempt good (H: #39 B.Ettridge, LS: #51 C.Stack)
+4.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com