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AF

Air Force 26 at San José State 16

SJSU
2025 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2025 · CEFCU Stadium
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Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDSAFETYFGTDTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:04 · (04:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass intercepted by #9 L.Brown at USAFA04 #9 L.Brown return 42 yards to the USAFA46 (#1 L.Smith)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 71Home team on offense−7.8Pregame prior+10.2Garbage-time factor−2.3Score differential−4.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:45: (13:48) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 3 yards gain to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:45 #96 R.Tubbs kick attempt good (H: #97 L.Freer, LS: #49 K.Chesney) — AF win probability +4.2 pts (now 39%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:20: (14:23) Shotgun #15 S.Chavez-Soto rush middle for 8 yards gain to the USAFA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:20, 1ST DOWN #48 D.Lynch kick attempt good (H: #49 T.Carrizosa, LS: #44 A.Campos) — SJSU win probability +22.0 pts (now 53%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:11: (09:15) #9 L.Szarka pass complete short right to #18 Q.Smith caught at SJSU02, for 12 yards to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:11, 1ST DOWN #96 R.Tubbs kick attempt good (H: #97 L.Freer, LS: #49 K.Chesney) — AF win probability +16.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 5:43: (05:47) #48 D.Lynch field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD (H: #49 T.Carrizosa, LS: #44 A.Campos), clock 05:43 — SJSU win probability +9.3 pts (now 27%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:31: (00:32) #96 R.Tubbs field goal attempt from 33 yards GOOD (H: #97 L.Freer, LS: #49 K.Chesney), clock 00:31 — AF win probability +6.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 6AF made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:40AF 4th & 9 at AF 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:44SJSU 4th & 3 at AF 13, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.2%−<0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    66.7%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:16AF 4th & 8 at AF 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:31AF 4th & 1 at SJSU 1, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    46.2%−2.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    40.6%−8.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:04SJSU 4th & 5 at AF 22, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    45.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    41.6%−4.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:51AF 4th & 25 at AF 42, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−2.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:24AF 4th & 8 at SJSU 36, up 13
    Close callWent for it · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.8%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    63.7%
    42% to make
    Punt
    61.6%−2.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:08SJSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 45, down 13
    Close callPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:34SJSU 4th & 6 at AF 6, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    29.6%−6.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:43AF 4th & 23 at AF 47, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−5.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:20SJSU 4th & 1 at AF 8, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    25.1%−3.5
    90% to make
    Punt
    15.1%−13.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:08AF 4th & 1 at midfield, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    52.2%−6.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:43SJSU 4th & 3 at AF 16, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.9%−0.5
    81% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−6.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:31AF 4th & 7 at SJSU 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    86.2%−3.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1AF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 13:45AF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 14:20SJSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 9:11AF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1332% → 32%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.9%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush right for 0 yards to the USAFA25 (#29 J.Thomas)Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
67.9%
(14:26) #5 D.Carson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USAFA26 (#1 J.Pollard)Similar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
67.8%
(13:50) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass incomplete short right to #18 Q.Smith thrown to USAFA41Similar
Q1 13:40
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
67.9%
(13:47) #97 L.Freer punt 34 yards to the SJSU40 fair catch by #29 J.Thomas at SJSU40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 2FG
8 plays · 47 yds · 1:4468% → 68%
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
67.9%
(13:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short left to #10 D.Scudero caught at SJSU38, for 8 yards to the SJSU48 (#36 M.Mustell; #8 D.Daley)Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+11
67.9%
(13:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short right to #4 K.Shoels caught at USAFA46, for 11 yards to the USAFA41 (#9 L.Brown), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+21
68.0%
(12:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short middle to #85 J.Canaan caught at USAFA23, for 21 yards to the USAFA20 (#36 M.Mustell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
68.0%
(12:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass incomplete short right to #85 J.Canaan thrown to USAFA19 QB hurried by #99 A.SwartzSimilar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+7
68.1%
(12:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 L.Radcliffe rush middle for 7 yards gain to the USAFA13 (#5 R.Jones)Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 3
OPP 13
0
67.9%
(11:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass incomplete short left to #10 D.Scudero thrown to USAFA07Similar
Q1 11:44
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+31
68.0%
D. Lynch 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:1932% → 32%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
67.9%
(11:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 C.Harris rush left for 1 yard gain to the USAFA26 (#15 J.Bainer)Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
67.9%
(11:04) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush right for 1 yard gain to the USAFA27 (#1 J.Pollard)Similar
Q1 10:21
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
68.0%
(10:24) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass incomplete short left to #21 C.Harris thrown to USAFA31 QB hurried by #51 S.LangiSimilar
Q1 10:16
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
68.2%
(10:21) #97 L.Freer punt 36 yards to the SJSU37 fair catch by #29 J.Thomas at SJSU37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 4FUMBLE
9 plays · 44 yds · 2:4768% → 69%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
67.9%
(10:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Chavez-Soto rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SJSU39 (#6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+7
68.1%
(09:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short right to #4 K.Shoels caught at SJSU46, for 7 yards to the SJSU46 (#4 M.Seiken)Similar
Q1 8:58
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+1
68.0%
(09:10) Shotgun #15 S.Chavez-Soto rush right for 1 yard gain to the SJSU47 (#96 P.Zdroik; #5 R.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
68.2%
(08:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget rush middle for 12 yards gain to the USAFA41 (#6 B.Fletcher), 1ST DOWN. #5 W.Eget injured on the playSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+17
68.4%
(08:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Chavez-Soto rush right for 17 yards gain to the USAFA24 (#4 M.Seiken), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
68.5%
(07:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 X.Ward pass complete short left to #1 L.Smith caught at USAFA17, for 7 yards to the USAFA17 (#26 A.Perez; #9 L.Brown)Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 3
OPP 17
-2
68.5%
(07:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 X.Ward rush left for 2 yards loss to the USAFA19 fumbled by #7 X.Ward at USAFA19 recovered by USAFA #5 R.Jones at USAFA19, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5TD
18 plays · 81 yds · 8:2732% → 39%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
67.9%
(07:22) No Huddle #5 D.Carson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USAFA22 (#50 G.Faga)Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+4
67.9%
(06:44) #3 M.Long rush right for 4 yards gain to the USAFA26 (#1 J.Pollard), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+21
68.0%
(06:08) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush right for 21 yards gain to the USAFA47 (#4 T.Latu), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
67.1%
(05:29) #5 D.Carson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USAFA50 (#90 J.Moe) PENALTY USAFA Illegal Formation 5 yards from USAFA47 to USAFA42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+8
67.6%
(05:15) #8 K.Frew rush left for 8 yards gain to the USAFA50 (#1 J.Pollard), out of bounds PENALTY USAFA Holding offsetting SJSU Face Mask offsetting. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+1
67.6%
(05:00) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 1 yard gain to the USAFA43 (#26 E.Powell) PENALTY SJSU Face Mask (#26 E.Powell) 15 yards from USAFA43 to SJSU42, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
66.9%
(04:42) #5 D.Carson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SJSU39 (#57 J.Stearns)Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+4
66.8%
(04:09) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 4 yards gain to the SJSU35 (#57 J.Stearns)Similar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+5
66.7%
(03:38) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 5 yards gain to the SJSU30 (#97 J.Norwood), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
66.3%
(03:05) #2 O.Allen rush left for 4 yards gain to the SJSU26 (#9 N.McNeal-Franklin)Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+4
65.7%
(02:32) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 4 yards gain to the SJSU22 (#97 J.Norwood)Similar
Q1 1:55
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+3
66.1%
(02:02) #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SJSU19 (#1 J.Pollard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
65.5%
(01:19) #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 4 yards gain to the SJSU15 (#26 E.Powell; #3 L.Turner-Gooden)Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+2
65.3%
(00:41) #5 D.Carson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SJSU13 (#94 M.Hola; #4 T.Latu)Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+10
65.8%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush left for 10 yards gain to the SJSU03 (#3 L.Turner-Gooden), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
65.1%
(14:28) #5 D.Carson rush middle for 0 yards to the SJSU03 (#4 T.Latu; #1 J.Pollard)Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
60.9%
(13:48) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 3 yards gain to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:45 #96 R.Tubbs kick attempt good (H: #97 L.Freer, LS: #49 K.Chesney)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 6INT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:4663% → 57%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
62.8%
(13:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass incomplete deep middle to #10 D.Scudero thrown to USAFA30 PENALTY USAFA Pass Interference (#5 R.Jones) 15 yards from SJSU25 to SJSU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
64.0%
(13:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short right to #14 M.Coleman caught at SJSU44, for 4 yards to the SJSU44 (#8 D.Daley)Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-11
56.7%
(12:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass intercepted by #45 J.Reese at USAFA44 #45 J.Reese return 11 yards to the SJSU45 (#1 L.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7TD
8 plays · 45 yds · 4:0846% → 49%
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
53.6%
(12:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.Allen rush right for 15 yards gain to the SJSU30 (#29 J.Thomas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
53.0%
(12:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 9 yards gain to the SJSU21 (#45 V.Taufatofua; #29 J.Thomas)Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+2
52.4%
(11:38) #2 O.Allen rush left for 2 yards gain to the SJSU19 (#90 J.Moe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
51.9%
(11:02) #2 O.Allen rush left for 11 yards gain to the SJSU08 (#29 J.Thomas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
51.4%
(10:29) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 2 yards gain to the SJSU06 (#1 J.Pollard; #4 T.Latu)Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
51.0%
(09:48) Shotgun #2 O.Allen rush right for 5 yards gain to the SJSU01 (#3 L.Turner-Gooden)Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
50.8%
(09:08) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges rush right for 0 yards to the SJSU01 (#50 G.Faga)Similar
Q2 8:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
51.1%
(08:33) #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:31 #96 R.Tubbs kick attempt good (H: #97 L.Freer, LS: #49 K.Chesney)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8INT
12 plays · 53 yds · 4:2752% → 47%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
51.7%
(08:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 L.Radcliffe rush left for 16 yards gain to the SJSU41 (#2 K.Johnson; #8 D.Daley) PENALTY SJSU Holding (#60 H.Mesa) 10 yards from SJSU25 to SJSU15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+21
49.8%
(08:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short right to #1 L.Smith caught at SJSU32, for 21 yards to the SJSU36 (#9 L.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
50.1%
(07:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 L.Radcliffe rush middle for 12 yards gain to the SJSU48 (#5 R.Jones; #8 D.Daley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
50.6%
(07:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short left to #1 L.Smith caught at USAFA48, for 9 yards to the USAFA43 (#6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+1
50.7%
(06:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short right to #4 K.Shoels caught at USAFA44, for 1 yard to the USAFA42 (#8 D.Daley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
50.3%
(06:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short left to #1 L.Smith caught at USAFA33, for 15 yards to the USAFA27 (#2 K.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
51.0%
(05:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 L.Radcliffe rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USAFA24 (#5 R.Jones)Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+2
50.1%
(04:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 L.Radcliffe rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USAFA22 (#15 J.Adams; #6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q2 4:17
3RD & 5
OPP 22
0
48.4%
(04:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass incomplete short right to #15 S.Chavez-Soto thrown to USAFA20 broken up by #95 D.GrobeSimilar
Q2 4:04
4TH & 5
OPP 22
-42
46.6%
(04:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass intercepted by #9 L.Brown at USAFA04 #9 L.Brown return 42 yards to the USAFA46 (#1 L.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · -4 yds · 2:0455% → 55%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
45.1%
(04:04) No Huddle #5 D.Carson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USAFA49 (#94 M.Hola)Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+8
44.7%
(03:33) #5 D.Carson rush middle for 8 yards gain to the SJSU43 (#9 N.McNeal-Franklin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
44.2%
(02:57) #5 D.Carson rush middle for 8 yards gain to the SJSU35 (#9 N.McNeal-Franklin) PENALTY USAFA Holding declined USAFA Holding (#8 K.Frew) 10 yards from SJSU43 to USAFA47. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 20
OWN 47
+3
44.4%
(02:53) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 3 yards gain (3) to the USAFA50 (#29 J.Thomas) PENALTY USAFA Holding (#52 N.Elwood) 10 yards from USAFA50 to USAFA40Similar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 27
OWN 40
+3
44.6%
(02:44) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USAFA43 (#50 G.Faga)Similar
Q2 2:33
3RD & 24
OWN 43
+3
44.9%
(02:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USAFA46 (#91 Q.Likio)Similar
Q2 2:33
3RD & 21
OWN 46
-4
44.9%
(02:33) No Huddle #9 L.Szarka rush right for 4 yards loss to the USAFA42 (#45 V.Taufatofua)Similar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 25
OWN 42
0
44.9%
(01:59) #97 L.Freer punt 52 yards to the SJSU06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10SF
1 play · -6 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-6
41.5%
Payton Zdroik SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11DOWNS
10 plays · 20 yds · 1:0762% → 63%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
38.4%
(01:37) No Huddle #21 C.Harris rush left for 3 yards gain to the USAFA47 (#29 J.Thomas), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+4
38.0%
(01:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.Allen rush right for 4 yards gain to the SJSU49 (#15 J.Bainer)Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+11
38.3%
(01:01) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass complete short right to #88 B.Fleischmann caught at SJSU39, for 11 yards to the SJSU38 (#15 J.Bainer), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
37.0%
(00:43) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass incomplete short left to #3 M.Long thrown to SJSU37 broken up by #4 T.LatuSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
36.9%
(00:41) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass incomplete deep right to #88 B.Fleischmann thrown to SJSU07Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+2
37.0%
(00:33) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SJSU36 (#91 Q.Likio)Similar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 8
OPP 36
0
37.5%
(00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass incomplete short right to #21 C.Harris thrown to SJSU27 broken up by #15 J.Bainer, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:1142% → 42%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
42.1%
(00:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass incomplete short middle to #85 J.Canaan thrown to SJSU44 broken up by #30 I.Hubert. #62 T.Chen injured on the playSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
41.9%
(00:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass incomplete short right thrown to SJSU43 QB hurried by #96 P.ZdroikSimilar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+9
40.4%
(00:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short right to #4 K.Shoels caught at SJSU45, for 9 yards to the SJSU45, out of bounds at SJSU45Similar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
41.9%
(00:08) #49 T.Carrizosa punt 48 yards to the USAFA07Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13FG
12 plays · 69 yds · 4:2641% → 40%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
40.7%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 L.Radcliffe rush middle for 6 yards gain to the SJSU31 (#30 I.Hubert) PENALTY SJSU Holding (#74 S.Nomani) 10 yards from SJSU25 to SJSU15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 14:31
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+13
40.0%
(14:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short left to #10 D.Scudero caught at SJSU22, for 13 yards to the SJSU28 (#6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
40.3%
(14:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass incomplete short right to #4 K.Shoels thrown to SJSU42Similar
Q3 13:57
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
38.9%
(14:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short right to #1 L.Smith caught at SJSU30, for 10 yards to the SJSU38 (#26 A.Perez), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+40
40.3%
(13:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete deep right to #4 K.Shoels caught at USAFA22, for 40 yards to the USAFA22 (#4 M.Seiken), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
41.8%
(13:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short right to #2 L.Radcliffe caught at USAFA24, for 9 yards to the USAFA13 (#93 A.Tillett)Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+4
41.3%
(12:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Chavez-Soto rush right for 4 yards gain to the USAFA09 (#5 R.Jones), 1ST DOWN. #4 M.Seiken injured on the playSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
41.0%
(11:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Chavez-Soto rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USAFA07 (#8 D.Daley)Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
40.6%
(11:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass incomplete short right to #4 K.Shoels thrown to USAFA01 QB hurried by #96 P.ZdroikSimilar
Q3 11:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
38.7%
(11:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short left to #1 L.Smith caught at USAFA09, for 1 yard to the USAFA06 (#8 D.Daley)Similar
Q3 10:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+29
39.9%
(10:34) #99 M.Brown field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #49 T.Carrizosa, LS: #44 A.Campos), clock 10:34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14PUNT
15 plays · 22 yds · 6:4461% → 68%
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
39.4%
(10:34) No Huddle #5 D.Carson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USAFA28 (#1 J.Pollard)Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
38.6%
(09:59) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush right for 9 yards gain to the USAFA37 (#26 E.Powell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
37.5%
(09:20) #5 D.Carson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USAFA40 (#50 G.Faga)Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+7
36.4%
(08:46) #8 K.Frew rush left for 7 yards gain to the USAFA47 (#29 J.Thomas), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
35.7%
(08:10) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush left for 5 yards gain to the SJSU48 (#20 I.Revis; #90 J.Moe)Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+4
34.4%
(07:33) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 4 yards gain to the SJSU44 (#51 S.Langi; #57 J.Stearns)Similar
Q3 6:56
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
34.3%
(07:01) #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SJSU42 (#57 J.Stearns), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
32.1%
(06:23) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SJSU40 (#92 N.Siaosi)Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 8
OPP 40
-2
31.5%
(05:43) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass complete short middle to #21 C.Harris caught at SJSU42, for 2 yards loss to the SJSU42 (#97 J.Norwood)Similar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+2
30.2%
(05:08) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 9 yards gain (2) to the SJSU33 (#7 J.Apalit-Williams) PENALTY USAFA Holding (#88 B.Fleischmann) 10 yards from SJSU40 to SJSU50Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 18
50
+5
30.8%
(04:45) PENALTY USAFA False Start (#21 C.Harris) 5 yards from SJSU50 to USAFA45. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 25
OWN 45
+2
30.6%
(04:21) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass complete short right to #21 C.Harris caught at USAFA45, for 2 yards to the USAFA47 (#4 T.Latu; #9 N.McNeal-Franklin)Similar
Q3 3:43
4TH & 23
OWN 47
0
32.1%
(03:48) #97 L.Freer punt 41 yards to the SJSU12 fair catch by #29 J.Thomas at SJSU12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15TD
12 plays · 88 yds · 4:1531% → 53%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
30.8%
(03:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short left to #10 D.Scudero caught at SJSU17, for 7 yards to the SJSU19, out of bounds at SJSU19Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 3
OWN 19
0
31.2%
(03:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass incomplete short right to #10 D.Scudero thrown to SJSU20 broken up by #96 P.ZdroikSimilar
Q3 3:02
3RD & 3
OWN 19
+6
29.4%
(03:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short right to #10 D.Scudero caught at SJSU21, for 6 yards to the SJSU25, out of bounds at SJSU25, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
29.8%
(02:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short left to #1 L.Smith caught at SJSU34, for 15 yards to the SJSU40 (#26 A.Perez), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+30
31.0%
(02:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete deep middle to #1 L.Smith caught at USAFA39, for 30 yards to the USAFA30 (#9 L.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
33.9%
(01:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Chavez-Soto rush middle for 8 yards gain to the USAFA22 (#45 J.Reese; #15 J.Adams)Similar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+5
33.5%
(00:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Chavez-Soto rush right for 5 yards gain to the USAFA17 (#5 R.Jones), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
33.0%
(00:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short left to #10 D.Scudero caught at USAFA13, for 7 yards to the USAFA10 (#36 M.Mustell; #95 D.Grobe)Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 3
OPP 10
0
32.9%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass incomplete short right to #10 D.Scudero thrown to USAFA13Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+2
30.9%
(14:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Chavez-Soto rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USAFA08 (#99 A.Swartz; #95 D.Grobe)Similar
Q4 14:20
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+8
52.8%
(14:23) Shotgun #15 S.Chavez-Soto rush middle for 8 yards gain to the USAFA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:20, 1ST DOWN #48 D.Lynch kick attempt good (H: #49 T.Carrizosa, LS: #44 A.Campos)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:0153% → 84%
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
46.7%
(14:20) No Huddle #5 D.Carson rush right for 1 yard gain to the USAFA26 (#4 T.Latu) PENALTY SJSU Personal Foul (#26 E.Powell) 15 yards from USAFA26 to USAFA41, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
43.4%
(13:57) No Huddle #9 L.Szarka rush right for 2 yards gain to the USAFA43 (#4 T.Latu; #94 M.Hola)Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+4
43.1%
(13:24) No Huddle #5 D.Carson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USAFA47 (#3 L.Turner-Gooden)Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+3
42.7%
(12:47) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USAFA50 (#45 V.Taufatofua)Similar
Q4 12:08
4TH & 1
50
+2
42.2%
(12:12) #8 K.Frew rush left for 2 yards gain to the SJSU48, out of bounds at SJSU48, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+18
38.6%
(11:40) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass complete short left to #88 B.Fleischmann caught at SJSU36, for 18 yards to the SJSU30 (#3 L.Turner-Gooden), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+17
34.4%
(11:14) Shotgun #8 K.Frew rush right for 17 yards gain to the SJSU13 (#90 J.Moe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
33.0%
(10:28) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush left for 0 yards to the SJSU13 (#51 S.Langi)Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+1
32.1%
(09:51) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 1 yard gain to the SJSU12 (#51 S.Langi)Similar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+12
15.9%
(09:15) #9 L.Szarka pass complete short right to #18 Q.Smith caught at SJSU02, for 12 yards to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:11, 1ST DOWN #96 R.Tubbs kick attempt good (H: #97 L.Freer, LS: #49 K.Chesney)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 3:2018% → 27%
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.8%
(09:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass incomplete deep right to #10 D.Scudero thrown to USAFA38 broken up by #36 M.MustellSimilar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
17.2%
(09:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget rush left for 7 yards gain to the SJSU32 (#30 I.Hubert)Similar
Q4 8:17
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
16.6%
(08:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short middle to #85 J.Canaan caught at SJSU36, for 9 yards to the SJSU41 (#6 B.Fletcher; #8 D.Daley), 1ST DOWN. #8 D.Daley injured on the playSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+25
18.1%
(08:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete deep right to #4 K.Shoels caught at USAFA34, for 25 yards to the USAFA34, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
20.9%
(07:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short right to #85 J.Canaan caught at USAFA29, for 11 yards to the USAFA23 (#33 B.Bujnoch), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
20.4%
(06:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass incomplete short middle to #10 D.Scudero thrown to USAFA05 broken up by #6 B.FletcherSimilar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+4
19.7%
(06:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget rush right for 4 yards gain to the USAFA19 (#96 P.Zdroik), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 6:01
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+3
17.5%
(06:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short right to #85 J.Canaan caught at USAFA16, for 3 yards to the USAFA16 (#26 A.Perez), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 5:43
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+34
26.8%
(05:47) #48 D.Lynch field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD (H: #49 T.Carrizosa, LS: #44 A.Campos), clock 05:43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18FG
19 plays · 60 yds · 5:0583% → 95%
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
17.5%
(05:43) No Huddle #2 O.Allen rush right for 11 yards gain to the USAFA36 (#9 N.McNeal-Franklin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
14.5%
(05:08) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USAFA39 (#50 G.Faga)Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+4
13.4%
(04:28) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USAFA43 (#9 N.McNeal-Franklin)Similar
Q4 3:34
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+20
13.2%
(03:45) #2 O.Allen rush right for 20 yards gain to the SJSU37 (#45 V.Taufatofua), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
10.5%
(03:03) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SJSU34 (#50 G.Faga)Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+4
10.1%
(02:59) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 4 yards gain to the SJSU30 (#4 T.Latu)Similar
Q4 2:51
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+2
10.4%
(02:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SJSU28 (#45 V.Taufatofua)Similar
Q4 2:51
4TH & 1
OPP 28
0
12.1%
(02:51) No Huddle #9 L.Szarka rush right for 0 yards to the SJSU28 (#29 J.Thomas) PENALTY SJSU Holding (#26 E.Powell) 10 yards from SJSU28 to SJSU18, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
9.2%
(02:22) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SJSU16 (#97 J.Norwood)Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+1
8.3%
(02:00) No Huddle #9 L.Szarka rush left for 1 yard gain to the SJSU15 (#20 I.Revis)Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 7
OPP 15
0
8.5%
(01:16) No Huddle #2 O.Allen rush middle for 0 yards to the SJSU15, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 0:31
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+33
4.7%
(00:32) #96 R.Tubbs field goal attempt from 33 yards GOOD (H: #97 L.Freer, LS: #49 K.Chesney), clock 00:31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19END OF GAME
7 plays · 38 yds · 0:185% → 5%
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
4.9%
(00:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short middle to #14 M.Coleman caught at SJSU31, for 12 yards to the SJSU37, out of bounds at SJSU37, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
5.4%
(00:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete short right to #4 K.Shoels caught at USAFA49, for 14 yards to the USAFA49 (#4 M.Seiken) PENALTY SJSU Holding (#62 T.Chen) 10 yards from SJSU37 to SJSU27. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 0:12
1ST & 20
OWN 27
0
4.8%
(00:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass incomplete deep left to #1 L.Smith thrown to USAFA40 broken up by #9 L.BrownSimilar
Q4 0:07
2ND & 20
OWN 27
0
4.7%
(00:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass incomplete deep left to #1 L.Smith thrown to SJSU50Similar
Q4 0:07
3RD & 20
OWN 27
+36
4.5%
(00:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Eget pass complete deep left to #1 L.Smith caught at USAFA37, for 36 yards to the USAFA37, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:20
(14:23) Shotgun #15 S.Chavez-Soto rush middle for 8 yards gain to the USAFA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:20, 1ST DOWN #48 D.Lynch kick attempt good (H: #49 T.Carrizosa, LS: #44 A.Campos)
+22
TD · Q4 9:11
(09:15) #9 L.Szarka pass complete short right to #18 Q.Smith caught at SJSU02, for 12 yards to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:11, 1ST DOWN #96 R.Tubbs kick attempt good (H: #97 L.Freer, LS: #49 K.Chesney)
-16.2
FG · Q4 5:43
(05:47) #48 D.Lynch field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD (H: #49 T.Carrizosa, LS: #44 A.Campos), clock 05:43
+9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com