Try the model
FRES

Fresno State 30 at Boise State 7

BOIS
2025 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2025 · Albertsons Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:06 · (04:12) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass incomplete deep left to #3 L.Caples thrown to BOI45, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 165Pregame prior+3.5Home team on offense−46.3Score differential−25.2Garbage-time factor−16.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−9.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:07: Chase Penry 10 Yd pass from Max Cutforth (Colton Boomer Kick) — BOIS win probability +8.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. INT · Q2 1:28: (01:28) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass intercepted by #5 S.Harris at BOI46, End Of Play — BOIS win probability +6.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:47: B. Ramirez run for 3 yds, for a TD (D. Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +12.4 pts (now 47%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:30: B. Donelson run for 2 yds, for a TD (D. Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +19.5 pts (now 80%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 10:35: D. Lynch 43 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +3.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 9 of 11FRES made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 14:12BOIS 4th & 4 at BOIS 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:05FRES 4th & 21 at FRES 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:21BOIS 4th & 22 at BOIS 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:52FRES 4th & 4 at FRES 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:44BOIS 4th & 12 at BOIS 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:52BOIS 4th & 10 at FRES 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    76.1%−2.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:57FRES 4th & 9 at FRES 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:39BOIS 4th & 5 at BOIS 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:24FRES 4th & 15 at FRES 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−1.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:55BOIS 4th & 1 at FRES 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    68.3%−2.3
    54% to make
    Punt
    66.9%−3.7
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:41FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:53FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−0.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:26FRES 4th & 11 at BOIS 48, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−1.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:21BOIS 4th & 14 at BOIS 3, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−4.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:43BOIS 4th & 4 at BOIS 22, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−1.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:35FRES 4th & 14 at BOIS 25, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−1.3
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.5%
    66% to make
    Punt
    85.2%−5.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:11BOIS 4th & 27 at BOIS 19, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−1.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:58FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 38, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:06BOIS 4th & 23 at BOIS 19, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%−0.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.4%
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:41FRES 4th & 6 at BOIS 15, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−1.7
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:36BOIS 4th & 10 at FRES 30, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 2:28FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:07BOIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:47FRES Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:30FRES Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4290% → 90%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
89.9%
(15:00) #24 D.Riley rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BOI31 (#5 S.Harris)Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
89.7%
(14:27) #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short left to #24 D.Riley thrown to BOI34Similar
Q1 14:18
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
89.7%
(14:23) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete deep right to #80 C.Bates thrown to FS 48 QB hurried by #19 F.ClaypoolSimilar
Q1 14:12
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
89.7%
(14:18) #37 O.Doyle punt 42 yards to the FS 27 fair catch by #10 J.Malau’ulu at FS 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:5410% → 11%
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
89.6%
(14:12) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FS 28 (#0 T.Benefield)Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 9
OWN 28
-4
89.5%
(13:34) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin rush left for 4 yards loss to the FS 24 (#7 A.McCoy), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 13
OWN 24
+5
89.4%
PENALTY FS False Start (#72 E.Fonua) 5 yards from FS 24 to FS 19. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 18
OWN 19
-3
89.3%
(12:53) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 3 yards loss to the FS 16 (#95 M.Stege)Similar
Q1 12:05
4TH & 21
OWN 16
0
89.2%
(12:16) #41 N.Verdugo punt 46 yards to the BOI38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · -12 yds · 2:4289% → 88%
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
89.1%
(12:03) #24 D.Riley rush right for 13 yards gain to the FS 49 (#22 C.Bracha) PENALTY BOI Holding (#67 J.Steele) 10 yards from BOI38 to BOI28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 11:51
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+5
89.0%
PENALTY BOI False Start (#3 L.Caples) 5 yards from BOI28 to BOI23. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 25
OWN 23
+5
88.9%
PENALTY BOI False Start (#3 L.Caples) 5 yards from BOI23 to BOI18. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 30
OWN 18
-4
88.8%
(11:20) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #24 D.Riley caught at BOI14, for 4 yards loss to the BOI14 (#5 S.Harris)Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 34
OWN 14
0
88.6%
(10:39) Shotgun #24 D.Riley rush right for 0 yards to the BOI14 (#39 J.Pearson)Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 34
OWN 14
+12
88.3%
(10:00) Shotgun #8 M.Sherrod rush middle for 12 yards gain to the BOI26 (#1 J.Embry)Similar
Q1 9:21
4TH & 22
OWN 26
0
88.1%
(09:27) #37 O.Doyle punt 45 yards to the FS 29 #10 J.Malau’ulu return 0 yards to the FS 29 (#24 D.Riley) PENALTY FS Illegal Substitution declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2312% → 12%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
88.2%
(09:21) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush right for 4 yards gain to the FS 33 (#10 D.Ganter Jr.)Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+2
87.8%
(08:44) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short right to #11 J.Farrar caught at FS 30, for 2 yards to the FS 35 (#0 T.Benefield)Similar
Q1 7:59
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
87.7%
(08:02) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short left to #6 B.Donelson thrown to FS 32Similar
Q1 7:52
4TH & 4
OWN 35
0
87.9%
(07:59) #41 N.Verdugo punt 50 yards to the BOI15 fair catch by #8 M.Sherrod at BOI15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:0388% → 87%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
87.7%
(07:52) #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short left to #13 C.Penry thrown to BOI27Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-6
87.6%
(07:47) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen sacked for loss of 6 yards to the BOI09 (#0 K.Foreman)Similar
Q1 7:21
3RD & 16
OWN 9
+4
87.4%
(07:26) Shotgun #8 M.Sherrod rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BOI13 (#35 T.Khajavi)Similar
Q1 6:44
4TH & 12
OWN 13
0
87.1%
(06:51) #37 O.Doyle punt 42 yards to the FS 45 #10 J.Malau’ulu return 0 yards to the FS 45 (#0 T.Benefield)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6TD
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:1213% → 18%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
87.0%
(06:44) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FS 46 (#43 J.Ripp)Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+8
86.7%
(06:08) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short right to #5 J.Freeman caught at BOI47, for 8 yards to the BOI46 (#6 J.Earby)Similar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+1
86.4%
(05:30) #31 B.Ramirez rush right for 1 yard gain to the BOI45 (#0 T.Benefield; #38 T.Anderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
86.2%
(04:56) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short right thrown to BOI30 QB hurried by #15 M.WilliamsSimilar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
86.2%
(04:50) PENALTY FS False Start (#71 R.Fullwood) 5 yards from BOI45 to BOI50. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 15
50
+15
86.5%
(04:50) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short left to #6 B.Donelson thrown to BOI49 QB hurried by #90 B.Fely PENALTY BOI Roughing The Passer (#90 B.Fely) 15 yards from BOI50 to BOI35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
86.0%
(04:43) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush right for 6 yards gain to the BOI29 (#10 D.Ganter Jr.; #5 J.Virgin-Morgan)Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+12
85.6%
(04:06) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 12 yards gain to the BOI17 (#20 J.Mickey), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY BOI UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#20 J.Mickey) 9 yards from BOI17 to BOI08, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
85.5%
(03:51) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BOI02 (#38 T.Anderson)Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
85.2%
(03:17) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush left for 1 yard gain to the BOI01 (#41 B.Phelps)Similar
Q1 2:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.4%
Elijah Gilliam 1 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7MISSED FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 2:2983% → 82%
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.1%
(02:28) Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush left for 3 yards gain to the BOI28 (#99 M.Jordan Jr.)Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+44
82.9%
(02:09) Shotgun #8 M.Sherrod rush left for 44 yards gain to the FS 28 (#22 C.Bracha), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
83.6%
(01:23) #8 M.Sherrod rush right for 1 yard loss to the FS 29 (#5 S.Harris)Similar
Q1 0:43
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+5
83.3%
PENALTY BOI False Start (#72 Z.Holmes) 5 yards from FS 29 to FS 34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 16
OPP 34
+6
82.7%
(00:30) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass complete short right to #85 M.Lauter caught at FS 34, for 6 yards to the FS 28 (#39 J.Pearson)Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
82.3%
(15:00) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass incomplete short left to #3 L.Caples thrown to FS 15 broken up by #99 M.Jordan Jr.Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+45
81.5%
(14:51) #35 C.Boomer field goal attempt from 45 yards NO GOOD blocked by #6 J.Jacks (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #42 M.Hutton), clock 14:52 recovered by BOI #35 C.Boomer at FS 41, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:4720% → 20%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
80.3%
(14:50) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush left for 7 yards gain to the FS 48 (#0 T.Benefield), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+5
79.9%
PENALTY FS False Start (#88 R.Anderson III) 5 yards from FS 48 to FS 43. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+5
79.6%
(13:55) PENALTY FS False Start (#71 R.Fullwood) 5 yards from FS 43 to FS 38. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+4
79.9%
(13:40) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FS 42 (#10 D.Ganter Jr.)Similar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
79.2%
(13:05) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short right to #5 J.Freeman thrown to BOI47 broken up by #7 A.McCoySimilar
Q2 12:57
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
79.9%
(13:03) #41 N.Verdugo punt 36 yards to the BOI22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:0480% → 77%
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
79.8%
(12:49) #24 D.Riley rush middle for 0 yards to the BOI22 (#11 J.Davis)Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+9
79.2%
(12:15) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass complete short left to #13 C.Penry caught at BOI28, for 9 yards to the BOI31 (#39 J.Pearson)Similar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+3
79.2%
(11:38) #24 D.Riley rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BOI34 (#11 J.Davis; #19 F.Claypool), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
78.7%
(11:06) #80 C.Bates rush left for 3 yards gain to the BOI37 (#5 S.Harris), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+2
78.8%
(10:33) #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BOI39 (#6 J.Jacks)Similar
Q2 9:46
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
77.7%
(09:49) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass incomplete short left to #3 L.Caples thrown to BOI42Similar
Q2 9:39
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
76.8%
(09:44) #37 O.Doyle punt 45 yards to the FS 16 fair catch by #10 J.Malau’ulu at FS 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:0923% → 23%
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
76.7%
(09:39) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FS 18 (#0 T.Benefield)Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
76.4%
(09:00) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short middle to #88 R.Anderson III thrown to FS 22Similar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 8
OWN 18
-7
76.8%
(08:59) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short right to #6 B.Donelson caught at FS 11, for 7 yards loss to the FS 11 (#20 J.Mickey), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 8:24
4TH & 15
OWN 11
0
76.9%
(08:29) punt 39 yards to the FS 50 fair catch by #8 M.Sherrod at BOI50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11TD
12 plays · 50 yds · 6:1278% → 81%
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
50
0
77.6%
(08:24) #14 M.Cutforth pass incomplete deep left to #85 M.Lauter thrown to FS 25Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 10
50
+2
76.5%
(08:19) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass complete short right to #88 M.Wagner caught at FS 48, for 2 yards to the FS 48 (#17 E.Tierney)Similar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+8
75.7%
(07:42) Shotgun #8 M.Sherrod rush middle for 8 yards gain to the FS 40 (#2 A.Cobb), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-4
76.1%
(07:07) Shotgun #8 M.Sherrod rush right for 4 yards loss to the FS 44 (#39 J.Pearson)Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 14
OPP 44
+3
74.4%
(06:31) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass complete short middle to #85 M.Lauter caught at FS 41, for 3 yards to the FS 41 (#39 J.Pearson; #35 T.Khajavi)Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+10
73.6%
(05:50) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass complete short left to #85 M.Lauter caught at FS 44, for 10 yards to the FS 31 (#39 J.Pearson)Similar
Q2 4:55
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+3
73.3%
(05:08) #14 M.Cutforth rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FS 28 (#94 J.Gandy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
74.8%
(04:33) #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 9 yards gain to the FS 19 (#1 J.Embry; #17 E.Tierney)Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+5
74.2%
(03:53) #26 S.Gaines rush right for 5 yards gain to the FS 14 (#6 J.Jacks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
73.7%
(03:18) #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FS 11 (#35 T.Khajavi; #11 J.Davis)Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+1
73.0%
(02:46) #24 D.Riley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FS 10 (#39 J.Pearson)Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+10
81.0%
Chase Penry 10 Yd pass from Max Cutforth (Colton Boomer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:2123% → 22%
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.8%
(02:05) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short right to #5 J.Freeman thrown to FS 30 QB hurried by #95 M.StegeSimilar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
76.9%
(02:02) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short left to #84 E.Avit thrown to FS 44 broken up by #6 J.EarbySimilar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
77.6%
(01:58) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short left to #88 R.Anderson III thrown to FS 34 QB hurried by #95 M.Stege and #90 B.FelySimilar
Q2 1:41
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
78.3%
(01:51) #41 N.Verdugo punt 37 yards to the BOI38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0780% → 80%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
79.8%
(01:41) Shotgun #8 M.Sherrod rush right for 1 yard gain to the BOI39 (#3 A.Hamilton; #39 J.Pearson)Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
80.4%
(01:28) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass intercepted by #5 S.Harris at BOI46, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14FG
10 plays · 28 yds · 1:1826% → 31%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
74.2%
(01:28) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short right to #2 R.Luke caught at BOI45, for 4 yards to the BOI42 (#53 M.Notarainni)Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
74.2%
(01:21) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete deep right to #5 J.Freeman thrown to BOI05Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+15
74.5%
(01:15) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete deep left to #1 J.McClain thrown to BOI17 PENALTY BOI Pass Interference (#0 T.Benefield) 15 yards from BOI42 to BOI27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
73.1%
(01:07) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush left for 11 yards gain to the BOI16 (#10 D.Ganter Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
73.0%
(01:04) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush right for 1 yard loss to the BOI17 (#15 M.Williams)Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 11
OPP 17
+4
72.7%
(00:43) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short left to #88 R.Anderson III caught at BOI23, for 4 yards to the BOI13 (#15 M.Williams)Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+5
73.1%
(00:08) PENALTY FS False Start (#71 R.Fullwood) 5 yards from BOI13 to BOI18. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 12
OPP 18
+36
68.8%
D. Lynch 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 3:0728% → 28%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
72.5%
Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FS 09 (#6 J.Earby)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+8
72.7%
Shotgun #31 B.Ramirez rush middle for 8 yards gain to the FS 17 (#96 L.Sanusi; #7 A.McCoy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
72.0%
Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short right to #88 R.Anderson III caught at FS 22, for 5 yards to the FS 22 (#0 T.Benefield) PENALTY FS UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#10 J.Malau’ulu) 11 yard from FS 22 to FS 11Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 11
+3
72.4%
Shotgun #17 C.Conklin rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FS 14 (#5 J.Virgin-Morgan)Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 14
+6
73.3%
Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short left to #5 J.Freeman caught at FS 20, for 6 yards to the FS 20 (#7 A.McCoy)Similar
Q3 11:53
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
72.1%
#41 N.Verdugo punt 49 yards to the BOI31 fair catch by #8 M.Sherrod at BOI31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-4
70.7%
(11:53) #14 M.Cutforth sacked for loss of 4 yards to the BOI27 (#5 S.Harris), fumble by #14 M.Cutforth recovered by FS #6 J.Jacks at BOI27, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18TD
3 plays · 27 yds · 0:5634% → 47%
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
65.9%
(11:48) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 9 yards gain to the BOI18 (#6 J.Earby; #5 J.Virgin-Morgan)Similar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+15
65.2%
(11:11) Shotgun #31 B.Ramirez rush middle for 15 yards gain to the BOI03 (#0 T.Benefield; #7 A.McCoy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
52.8%
B. Ramirez run for 3 yds, for a TD (D. Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19INT
4 plays · 17 yds · 1:0954% → 54%
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
54.3%
(10:47) Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush left for 15 yards gain to the BOI40 (#37 R.Wilson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
54.9%
(10:11) Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BOI42 (#6 J.Jacks)Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-2
54.2%
(09:32) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass intercepted by #35 T.Khajavi at BOI49 #35 T.Khajavi return 2 yards to the BOI47, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:4649% → 50%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
50.8%
(09:19) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 0 yards to the BOI47 (#0 T.Benefield)Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
50.0%
(08:40) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush right for 4 yards gain to the BOI43 (#10 D.Ganter Jr.)Similar
Q3 7:54
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+5
49.0%
PENALTY FS Delay Of Game 5 yards from BOI43 to BOI48. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:32
3RD & 11
OPP 48
0
49.1%
(07:36) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short right thrown to BOI45 QB hurried by #53 M.NotarainniSimilar
Q3 7:26
4TH & 11
OPP 48
0
49.7%
(07:32) #41 N.Verdugo punt 41 yards to the BOI07 fair catch by #8 M.Sherrod at BOI07Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:5950% → 43%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-1
49.8%
(07:26) #8 M.Sherrod rush middle for 1 yard loss to the BOI06 (#0 K.Foreman)Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 11
OWN 6
-1
48.8%
(06:46) Shotgun #8 M.Sherrod rush middle for 1 yard loss to the BOI05 (#54 S.Noa)Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 12
OWN 5
-2
44.4%
(06:00) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass complete short right to #26 S.Gaines caught at BOI01, for 2 yards loss to the BOI03 (#39 J.Pearson)Similar
Q3 5:21
4TH & 14
OWN 3
0
43.2%
(05:23) #37 O.Doyle punt 40 yards to the BOI43 fair catch by #10 J.Malau’ulu at BOI43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22TD
5 plays · 43 yds · 0:4660% → 80%
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
40.5%
(05:23) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush right for 3 yards gain to the BOI40 (#41 B.Phelps)Similar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+15
40.5%
PENALTY BOI UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#7 A.McCoy) 15 yards from BOI40 to BOI25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+23
39.3%
(05:09) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush left for 23 yards gain to the BOI02 (#23 S.Smith), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
19.8%
B. Donelson run for 2 yds, for a TD (D. Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:3428% → 27%
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
27.7%
(04:22) #14 M.Cutforth pass incomplete short right to #3 L.Caples thrown to BOI16 broken up by #5 J.FreemanSimilar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+6
27.1%
(04:16) Shotgun #24 D.Riley rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BOI22 (#39 J.Pearson)Similar
Q3 3:52
3RD & 4
OWN 22
0
26.9%
(03:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass incomplete short right to #13 C.Penry thrown to BOI27Similar
Q3 3:43
4TH & 4
OWN 22
-2
26.6%
(03:48) #37 O.Doyle punt 51 yards to the FS 27 #10 J.Malau’ulu return for loss of 2 yards to the FS 25 (#24 D.Riley)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24FG
17 plays · 50 yds · 8:0080% → 96%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
20.4%
(03:41) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush right for 9 yards gain to the FS 34 (#7 A.McCoy)Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
18.6%
(02:52) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 11 yards gain to the FS 45 (#0 T.Benefield), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
14.6%
(02:15) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the FS 50 (#0 T.Benefield)Similar
Q3 1:32
2ND & 5
50
-1
13.1%
(01:37) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 1 yard loss to the FS 49 (#92 D.Latu)Similar
Q3 0:44
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+8
12.5%
(00:58) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short left to #5 J.Freeman caught at FS 46, for 8 yards to the BOI43 (#10 D.Ganter Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
11.4%
(00:11) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush right for 5 yards gain to the BOI38 (#43 J.Ripp; #5 J.Virgin-Morgan)Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+3
10.9%
(14:57) Shotgun #31 B.Ramirez rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BOI35 (#5 J.Virgin-Morgan)Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+2
9.9%
(14:16) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin rush left for 2 yards gain to the BOI33, out of bounds at BOI33, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
9.2%
(13:45) Shotgun #31 B.Ramirez rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BOI31 (#5 J.Virgin-Morgan; #43 J.Ripp)Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
8.6%
(13:04) #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short right to #87 J.Tarwater thrown to BOI24 broken up by #20 J.MickeySimilar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+10
8.9%
(12:57) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 10 yards gain to the BOI21 (#41 B.Phelps), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
8.0%
(12:14) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush right for 8 yards gain to the BOI13 (#0 T.Benefield) PENALTY FS Holding declined FS Holding (#72 E.Fonua) 10 yards from BOI21 to BOI31. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 20
OPP 31
0
7.4%
(11:51) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short left to #5 J.Freeman thrown to BOI25 QB hurried by #5 J.Virgin-MorganSimilar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 20
OPP 31
+1
7.4%
(11:47) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush right for 1 yard gain to the BOI30 (#7 A.McCoy; #5 J.Virgin-Morgan)Similar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 19
OPP 30
+5
7.0%
(11:08) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short left to #5 J.Freeman caught at BOI32, for 5 yards to the BOI25 (#6 J.Earby), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 10:35
4TH & 14
OPP 25
+43
3.6%
D. Lynch 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:144% → 4%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
4.2%
(10:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass complete short left to #85 M.Lauter caught at BOI31, for 11 yards to the BOI36 (#35 T.Khajavi; #2 A.Cobb), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-17
4.0%
(10:10) #14 M.Cutforth sacked for loss of 17 yards to the BOI19 (#19 F.Claypool), fumble by #14 M.Cutforth recovered by BOI #72 Z.Holmes at BOI19, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 27
OWN 19
0
3.7%
(09:25) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass incomplete short left to #13 C.Penry thrown to BOI30 broken up by #1 J.Embry PENALTY BOI Holding declinedSimilar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 27
OWN 19
0
3.7%
(09:21) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass incomplete short left to #13 C.Penry thrown to BOI28 QB hurried by #96 N.YehSimilar
Q4 9:11
4TH & 27
OWN 19
0
3.6%
(09:18) #37 O.Doyle punt 47 yards to the FS 34 fair catch by #10 J.Malau’ulu at FS 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 2:0897% → 98%
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
2.9%
(09:10) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FS 36 (#53 M.Notarainni)Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+2
2.6%
(08:31) Shotgun #31 B.Ramirez rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FS 38 (#5 J.Virgin-Morgan)Similar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
2.3%
(07:47) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass complete short left to #6 B.Donelson caught at FS 32, for 0 yards to the FS 38 (#41 B.Phelps; #53 M.Notarainni)Similar
Q4 6:58
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
2.2%
(07:15) #41 N.Verdugo punt 44 yards to the BOI18 fair catch by #8 M.Sherrod at BOI18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 27DOWNS
8 plays · 1 yds · 2:343% → 1%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
2.5%
(06:50) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass complete short right to #8 M.Sherrod caught at BOI20, for 3 yards to the BOI21 (#5 S.Harris)Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+6
1.8%
(06:25) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass complete short left to #13 C.Penry caught at BOI25, for 6 yards to the BOI27 (#1 J.Embry)Similar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+5
1.8%
(05:49) #8 M.Sherrod rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BOI32 (#0 K.Foreman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
1.7%
(05:14) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass incomplete deep right to #13 C.Penry thrown to FS 35 PENALTY BOI Pass Interference (#13 C.Penry) 15 yards from BOI32 to BOI17. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 25
OWN 17
+12
1.6%
(05:10) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass complete short right to #13 C.Penry caught at BOI30, for 12 yards to the BOI29 (#3 A.Hamilton)Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 13
OWN 29
-10
1.5%
(04:48) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth sacked for loss of 10 yards to the BOI19 (#19 F.Claypool)Similar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 23
OWN 19
0
1.4%
(04:15) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass incomplete short left to #85 M.Lauter thrown to BOI20Similar
Q4 4:06
4TH & 23
OWN 19
0
1.4%
(04:12) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass incomplete deep left to #3 L.Caples thrown to BOI45, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 28FG
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:1899% → 99%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
1.0%
(04:04) Shotgun #0 J.Arceneaux rush left for 3 yards gain to the BOI16 (#43 J.Ripp)Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+1
1.0%
(03:58) Shotgun #33 E.Gilliam rush left for 1 yard gain to the BOI15 (#53 M.Notarainni)Similar
Q4 3:48
3RD & 6
OPP 15
0
1.0%
(03:51) Shotgun #0 J.Arceneaux rush middle for 0 yards to the BOI15 (#10 D.Ganter Jr.)Similar
Q4 3:41
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+33
0.8%
D. Lynch 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 29DOWNS
8 plays · 36 yds · 0:521% → 1%
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
0.5%
(03:38) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass complete short left to #13 C.Penry caught at BOI38, for 7 yards to the BOI41 (#25 J.Johnson)Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+13
0.4%
(03:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass complete short left to #80 C.Bates caught at FS 46, for 13 yards to the FS 46 (#37 R.Wilson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+16
0.5%
(03:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass complete short middle to #3 L.Caples caught at FS 30, for 16 yards to the FS 30 (#22 C.Bracha), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
0.5%
(02:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass incomplete short left to #13 C.Penry thrown to FS 20Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
0.5%
(02:52) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass incomplete deep left to #83 Q.Williams Jr. thrown to FS 00 broken up by #1 J.EmbrySimilar
Q4 2:39
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
0.5%
(02:44) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass incomplete short left to #3 L.Caples thrown to FS 26Similar
Q4 2:36
4TH & 10
OPP 30
0
0.5%
(02:41) Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass incomplete short right to #80 C.Bates thrown to FS 15, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 30END OF GAME
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:0899% → 100%
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
0.6%
(02:36) Shotgun #33 E.Gilliam rush left for 3 yards gain to the FS 33 (#95 M.Stege)Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+12
0.4%
(01:57) Shotgun #0 J.Arceneaux rush right for 12 yards gain to the FS 45 (#43 J.Ripp), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
0.4%
(01:20) Kneel down by Fresno State at FS 44 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 11
OWN 44
-1
0.3%
(00:43) Kneel down by Fresno State at FS 43 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 12
OWN 43
-1
0.3%
(00:19) Kneel down by Fresno State at FS 42 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:30
B. Donelson run for 2 yds, for a TD (D. Lynch KICK)
-19.5
TD · Q3 10:47
B. Ramirez run for 3 yds, for a TD (D. Lynch KICK)
-12.4
TD · Q2 2:07
Chase Penry 10 Yd pass from Max Cutforth (Colton Boomer Kick)
+8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com