Try the model
ARMY

Army 20 at Air Force 17

AF
2025 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2025 · Falcon Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:05 · (07:06) #46 J.Wagenseller punt 49 yards to the AF35 fair catch by #21 C.Harris at AF35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingOne-score game
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 107Home team on offense−10.7Garbage-time factor−4.0Score differential−3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.9One-score game−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:35: (00:35) #95 D.Jones field goal attempt from 44 yards GOOD (H: #38 C.Allan, LS: #55 O.Walter), clock 00:35 — ARMY win probability +5.8 pts (now 63%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:00: Liam Szarka 3 Yd Run (Reagan Tubbs Kick) — AF win probability +22.9 pts (now 60%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:00: (07:03) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush right for 10 yards gain to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:00, 1ST DOWN #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #38 C.Allan, LS: #55 O.Walter) — ARMY win probability +30.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:26: (01:26) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 2 yards gain to the Army00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:26 #96 R.Tubbs kick attempt good (H: #97 L.Freer, LS: #49 K.Chesney) — AF win probability +49.8 pts (now 67%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Dawson Jones 27 Yd Field Goal — ARMY win probability +32.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ARMY made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:35ARMY 4th & 6 at ARMY 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:27AF 4th & 6 at ARMY 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:43ARMY 4th & 7 at ARMY 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:54AF 4th & 1 at ARMY 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    49.8%−0.7
    45% to make
    Punt
    49.6%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:25AF 4th & 12 at ARMY 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.3%
    45% to make
    Punt
    50.1%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:52AF 4th & 16 at ARMY 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:46ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    50.8%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:57ARMY 4th & 6 at AF 43, up 4
    Close callPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    53.3%−1.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:35ARMY 4th & 9 at AF 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%−1.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    51.0%−5.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:05ARMY 4th & 6 at ARMY 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−1.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:17AF 4th & 6 at ARMY 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    17.5%−3.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    16.2%−4.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:19ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    86.0%−2.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:32ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    48.0%−3.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ARMY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 0:05ARMY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 0:00AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 7:00ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:26AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.6%−2.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARMYDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1949% → 49%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
51.0%
(14:58) Shotgun #8 H.Reed rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Army27 (#4 M.Seiken)Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
51.1%
(14:23) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete short left to #15 N.Short caught at Army23, for 2 yards to the Army29 (#8 D.Daley)Similar
Q1 13:41
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
51.3%
(13:41) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass incomplete short left to #15 N.Short thrown to Army37Similar
Q1 13:35
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
51.3%
(13:36) #46 J.Wagenseller punt 47 yards to the AF24 fair catch by #21 C.Harris at AF24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:0151% → 52%
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
51.3%
(13:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 C.Harris rush right for 9 yards gain to the AF33 (#53 K.Fortner)Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+4
51.5%
(12:59) #5 D.Carson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AF37 (#53 K.Fortner), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
51.6%
(12:26) Shotgun #21 C.Harris rush left for 11 yards gain to the AF48 (#30 C.Matteson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
51.8%
(12:17) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush left for 2 yards gain to the AF50 (#30 C.Matteson)Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 8
50
+3
52.0%
(11:44) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass complete short left to #21 C.Harris caught at Army47, for 3 yards to the Army47 (#92 J.Latore)Similar
Q1 11:03
3RD & 5
OPP 47
-1
52.1%
(11:08) Shotgun #21 C.Harris rush left for 1 yard loss to the Army48 (#51 A.Thomas)Similar
Q1 10:27
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
51.8%
(10:34) #97 L.Freer punt 48 yards to the Army00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3648% → 48%
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
51.7%
(10:25) No Huddle #15 N.Short rush right for 4 yards loss to the Army16 (#8 D.Daley; #96 P.Zdroik)Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+7
51.9%
(09:37) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 7 yards gain to the Army23 (#36 M.Mustell)Similar
Q1 8:54
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
52.0%
(08:55) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass incomplete short middle to #44 P.Poloskey thrown to Army32Similar
Q1 8:43
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+1
52.2%
(08:52) #46 J.Wagenseller punt 49 yards to the AF28 #21 C.Harris return 1 yard to the AF29 (#8 J.Porter)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4FG
12 plays · 36 yds · 6:1152% → 53%
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
51.9%
(08:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 6 yards gain to the AF35 (#98 D.Gray; #20 C.Larkin)Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 4
OWN 35
0
52.4%
(08:06) Shotgun #21 C.Harris rush left for 0 yards to the AF35 (#51 A.Thomas)Similar
Q1 7:17
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+21
52.0%
(07:27) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass complete short left to #88 B.Fleischmann caught at Army48, for 21 yards to the Army44 (#17 J.Hammond), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
53.2%
(06:47) Shotgun #2 O.Allen rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Army42 (#52 K.Harris-Miller)Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+5
53.3%
(06:12) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass complete short right to #21 C.Harris caught at Army37, for 5 yards to the Army37, out of bounds at Army37Similar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+2
53.2%
(05:39) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush left for 2 yards gain to the Army35 (#96 D.Stowers)Similar
Q1 4:54
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+2
52.9%
(04:57) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Army33 (#10 C.Searight; #40 E.Ford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-4
54.0%
(04:20) Shotgun #8 K.Frew rush right for 4 yards loss to the Army37 (#20 C.Larkin)Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 14
OPP 37
+1
53.3%
(03:45) Shotgun #21 C.Harris rush right for 1 yard gain to the Army36 (#30 C.Matteson), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 13
OPP 36
+1
53.1%
(03:04) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Army35 (#53 K.Fortner)Similar
Q1 2:25
4TH & 12
OPP 35
+52
53.4%
(02:25) #96 R.Tubbs field goal attempt from 52 yards GOOD (H: #97 L.Freer, LS: #49 K.Chesney), clock 02:25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 5TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1146% → 50%
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+38
54.2%
(02:23) Shotgun #29 B.Bartosh rush left for 38 yards gain to the AF37 (#36 M.Mustell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
52.9%
(01:51) Shotgun #29 B.Bartosh rush middle for 5 yards gain to the AF32 (#4 M.Seiken)Similar
Q1 1:19
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+15
52.3%
(01:19) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush left for 6 yards gain to the AF26 (#8 D.Daley; #5 R.Jones) PENALTY Army Personal Foul (#44 P.Poloskey) 15 yards from AF32 to AF47. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 0:48
2ND & 20
OPP 47
+7
53.8%
(00:52) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush left for 7 yards gain to the AF40 (#8 D.Daley)Similar
Q1 0:05
3RD & 13
OPP 40
+40
50.0%
(00:08) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete deep right to #15 N.Short caught at AF00, for 40 yards to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:05, 1ST DOWN #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #38 C.Allan, LS: #55 O.Walter)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 3:1150% → 49%
Q1 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
50.2%
(00:03) No Huddle #21 C.Harris rush left for 7 yards gain to the AF32 (#51 A.Thomas), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+11
51.3%
(14:59) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 11 yards gain to the AF43 (#30 C.Matteson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
51.6%
(14:24) Shotgun #2 O.Allen rush left for 0 yards to the AF43 (#51 A.Thomas)Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+14
50.9%
(13:46) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass complete short right to #21 C.Harris caught at Army48, for 14 yards to the Army43, out of bounds at Army43, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-8
52.2%
(13:16) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka sacked for loss of 8 yards to the AF49 (#99 J.Bousum), fumble by #9 L.Szarka recovered by AF #52 N.Elwood at AF49, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 18
OWN 49
+2
50.5%
(12:39) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Army49 (#51 A.Thomas)Similar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 16
OPP 49
0
50.0%
(11:59) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass incomplete short left to #81 J.Dawson thrown to Army35Similar
Q2 11:52
4TH & 16
OPP 49
0
49.2%
(11:56) #97 L.Freer punt 34 yards to the Army15 fair catch by #23 L.Benson III at Army15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 7PUNT
13 plays · 42 yds · 6:4850% → 53%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
49.8%
(11:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 B.Bartosh rush left for 3 yards gain to the Army18 (#15 J.Adams; #2 K.Johnson)Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+3
49.7%
(11:16) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush left for 3 yards gain to the Army21 (#8 D.Daley; #5 R.Jones)Similar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+3
50.3%
(10:33) Shotgun #8 H.Reed rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Army24 (#2 K.Johnson; #99 A.Swartz)Similar
Q2 9:46
4TH & 1
OWN 24
+1
50.6%
(09:50) #3 C.Hellums rush left for 1 yard gain to the Army25 (#6 B.Fletcher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
49.2%
(09:07) Shotgun #29 B.Bartosh rush middle for 7 yards gain to the Army32 (#2 K.Johnson; #9 L.Brown)Similar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
48.2%
(08:27) #29 B.Bartosh rush right for 2 yards gain to the Army34 (#9 L.Brown)Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
47.5%
(07:50) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush right for 4 yards gain to the Army38 (#2 K.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
46.7%
(07:12) #3 C.Hellums pass incomplete deep middle to #15 N.Short thrown to AF20 PENALTY AF Pass Interference (#2 K.Johnson) 15 yards from Army38 to AF47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
45.9%
(07:04) #7 J.Mayes rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AF46 (#6 B.Fletcher; #95 D.Grobe)Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+2
45.8%
(06:23) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AF44 (#6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+1
46.0%
(05:46) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush right for 1 yard gain to the AF43 (#45 J.Reese)Similar
Q2 4:57
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
47.4%
(05:01) #46 J.Wagenseller punt 41 yards to the AF02Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8INT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:2648% → 47%
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
47.5%
(04:54) #9 L.Szarka rush left for 4 yards gain to the AF06 (#92 J.Latore; #14 G.Shields)Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+4
47.4%
(04:25) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 4 yards gain to the AF10 (#92 J.Latore; #99 J.Bousum)Similar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 2
OWN 10
+3
46.4%
(03:42) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 3 yards gain to the AF13 (#99 J.Bousum), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
47.6%
(03:06) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass complete short right to #21 C.Harris caught at AF11, for 1 yard to the AF14 (#40 E.Ford)Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 9
OWN 14
0
47.0%
(02:27) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass intercepted by #20 C.Larkin at AF41, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 9FG
11 plays · 14 yds · 1:4157% → 63%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
43.5%
(02:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 5 yards gain to the AF36 (#6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+3
42.3%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AF33 (#96 P.Zdroik)Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+5
42.5%
(01:22) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush left for 5 yards gain to the AF28 (#6 B.Fletcher; #33 B.Bujnoch), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
42.4%
(01:01) Shotgun #29 B.Bartosh rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AF24 (#36 M.Mustell)Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+5
42.4%
(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush left for 16 yards gain to the AF08, out of bounds at AF08 PENALTY Army Illegal Formation 5 yards from AF24 to AF29. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+2
42.5%
(00:48) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AF27 (#36 M.Mustell)Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 9
OPP 27
0
42.7%
(00:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass incomplete short right to #15 N.Short thrown to AF14 QB hurried by #96 P.ZdroikSimilar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+44
36.9%
(00:35) #95 D.Jones field goal attempt from 44 yards GOOD (H: #38 C.Allan, LS: #55 O.Walter), clock 00:35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10MISSED FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 0:2841% → 45%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
41.4%
(00:33) No Huddle #2 O.Allen rush middle for 13 yards gain to the AF38 (#20 C.Larkin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
41.5%
(00:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass complete short left to #18 Q.Smith caught at Army47, for 16 yards to the Army46 (#51 A.Thomas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
44.0%
(00:22) No Huddle #9 L.Szarka pass incomplete, SpikeSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+8
43.5%
(00:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass complete short right to #21 C.Harris caught at Army41, for 8 yards to the Army38, out of bounds at Army38Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+15
43.9%
(00:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass complete short middle to #81 J.Dawson caught at Army25, for 15 yards to the Army23 (#30 C.Matteson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
44.6%
(00:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass incomplete deep middle to #21 C.Harris thrown to Army00 broken up by #51 A.Thomas QB hurried by #40 E.FordSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+40
44.5%
(00:01) #96 R.Tubbs field goal attempt from 40 yards NO GOOD (H: #97 L.Freer, LS: #49 K.Chesney), clock 00:01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
37.8%
(00:00) Kneel down by Army West Point at Army22 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12INT
14 plays · 57 yds · 6:2240% → 40%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
39.9%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush right for 3 yards gain to the AF28 (#30 C.Matteson)Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+18
40.0%
(14:16) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass complete short middle to #81 J.Dawson caught at AF41, for 18 yards to the AF46 (#53 K.Fortner), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
42.0%
(13:48) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AF50 (#92 J.Latore)Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 6
50
+2
42.6%
(13:08) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Army48 (#96 D.Stowers; #98 D.Gray)Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+17
41.8%
(12:34) Shotgun #21 C.Harris rush right for 17 yards gain to the Army31 (#40 E.Ford; #53 K.Fortner), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
42.6%
(11:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush left for 2 yards gain to the Army29 (#99 J.Bousum)Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+5
42.5%
(11:06) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Army24 (#20 C.Larkin)Similar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+3
40.7%
(10:28) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Army21 (#53 K.Fortner; #98 D.Gray), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
42.2%
(09:49) Shotgun #21 C.Harris rush right for 5 yards gain to the Army16 (#52 K.Harris-Miller)Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 5
OPP 16
-2
42.1%
(09:12) Shotgun #8 K.Frew rush right for 2 yards loss to the Army18 (#53 K.Fortner)Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 7
OPP 18
0
40.1%
(08:34) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass intercepted by #14 G.Shields at Army12, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1665% → 65%
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
35.0%
(08:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 B.Bartosh rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Army14 (#99 A.Swartz)Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
34.1%
(07:47) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass incomplete deep right to #15 N.Short thrown to AF46Similar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+2
34.8%
(07:43) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush right for 2 yards gain to the Army16 (#96 P.Zdroik)Similar
Q3 7:05
4TH & 6
OWN 16
0
35.5%
(07:06) #46 J.Wagenseller punt 49 yards to the AF35 fair catch by #21 C.Harris at AF35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 6:5236% → 60%
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
35.9%
(07:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass complete short left to #81 J.Dawson caught at Army47, for 18 yards to the Army47, out of bounds at Army47, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
39.7%
(06:33) No Huddle #2 O.Allen rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Army44 (#40 E.Ford)Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+5
39.5%
(06:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Army42 (#51 A.Thomas) PENALTY AF Illegal Formation 5 yards from Army44 to Army49. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+8
37.4%
(05:31) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 8 yards gain to the Army41 (#30 C.Matteson)Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+10
38.4%
(04:51) #9 L.Szarka rush left for 10 yards gain to the Army31 (#30 C.Matteson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
40.7%
(04:10) #2 O.Allen rush right for 3 yards gain to the Army28 (#40 E.Ford; #53 K.Fortner)Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+6
40.5%
(03:31) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Army22 (#40 E.Ford)Similar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+1
38.4%
(02:59) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 1 yard gain to the Army21 (#99 J.Bousum; #20 C.Larkin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
40.2%
(02:22) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 7 yards gain to the Army14 (#51 A.Thomas)Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+4
40.0%
(01:47) #2 O.Allen rush left for 4 yards gain to the Army10 (#51 A.Thomas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
39.9%
(01:08) Shotgun #2 O.Allen rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Army07 (#98 D.Gray)Similar
Q3 0:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
37.3%
(00:37) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush right for 4 yards gain to the Army03 (#14 G.Shields)Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
60.2%
Liam Szarka 3 Yd Run (Reagan Tubbs Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 7:5348% → 86%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
51.6%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 B.Bartosh rush left for 2 yards gain to the Army27 (#5 R.Jones)Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
51.1%
(14:15) Shotgun #15 N.Short rush left for 10 yards gain to the Army37 (#5 R.Jones; #30 I.Hubert), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
49.3%
(13:38) #7 G.Nwawuihe rush left for 7 yards gain to the Army44 (#6 B.Fletcher; #95 D.Grobe)Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+7
46.8%
(12:57) #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 7 yards gain to the AF49 (#2 K.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
45.8%
(12:18) #29 B.Bartosh rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AF47 (#6 B.Fletcher; #99 A.Swartz)Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+7
45.8%
(11:42) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush left for 7 yards gain to the AF40 (#33 B.Bujnoch; #4 M.Seiken)Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+2
45.1%
(11:07) #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AF38 (#96 P.Zdroik), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
45.5%
(10:24) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete short left to #29 B.Bartosh caught at AF41, for 8 yards to the AF30 (#6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+5
43.0%
(09:43) #29 B.Bartosh rush left for 5 yards gain to the AF25 (#2 K.Johnson; #33 B.Bujnoch), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
42.9%
(09:06) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AF21 (#30 I.Hubert)Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 6
OPP 21
-1
42.7%
(08:26) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 1 yard loss to the AF22 (#46 Z.Juckel)Similar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+12
45.0%
(07:40) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 12 yards gain to the AF10 (#5 R.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
14.5%
(07:03) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush right for 10 yards gain to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:00, 1ST DOWN #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #38 C.Allan, LS: #55 O.Walter)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16FUMBLE
10 plays · 64 yds · 3:4123% → 29%
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
23.0%
(06:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush right for 3 yards gain to the AF28 (#51 A.Thomas)Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+13
22.9%
(06:29) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass complete short left to #21 C.Harris caught at AF41, for 13 yards to the AF41, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Army Roughing The Passer (#99 J.Bousum) 15 yards from AF41 to Army44, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
28.2%
(06:14) Shotgun #21 C.Harris rush right for 1 yard loss to the Army45 (#14 G.Shields)Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+5
25.6%
(05:40) Shotgun #21 C.Harris rush left for 5 yards gain to the Army40 (#14 G.Shields)Similar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
26.3%
(05:06) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush right for 0 yards to the Army40 (#56 N.Buchys; #40 E.Ford)Similar
Q4 4:17
4TH & 6
OPP 40
+13
22.8%
(04:30) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass complete short left to #8 K.Frew caught at Army45, for 13 yards to the Army27 (#30 C.Matteson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+16
29.3%
(03:48) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass complete short middle to #81 J.Dawson caught at Army13, for 16 yards to the Army11 (#30 C.Matteson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-6
29.1%
(03:15) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka sacked for loss of 6 yards to the Army17 (#10 C.Searight), fumble by #9 L.Szarka recovered by Army #98 D.Gray at Army17, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:4488% → 89%
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
11.7%
(03:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 7 yards gain to the Army24 (#8 D.Daley)Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 3
OWN 24
0
9.9%
(02:26) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush left for 0 yards to the Army24 (#6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+2
10.3%
(02:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Army26 (#95 D.Grobe; #5 R.Jones)Similar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 1
OWN 26
0
11.4%
(02:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush left for 0 yards to the Army26 (#96 P.Zdroik), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18TD
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:4621% → 67%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
21.2%
(02:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush left for 3 yards gain to the Army23 (#20 C.Larkin; #51 A.Thomas)Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+6
20.8%
(01:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush right for 6 yards gain to the Army17 (#30 C.Matteson; #92 J.Latore)Similar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+15
17.2%
(01:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass incomplete short middle to #18 Q.Smith thrown to Army00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Army Pass Interference (#7 J.Mayes) 15 yards from Army17 to Army02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
67.0%
(01:26) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 2 yards gain to the Army00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:26 #96 R.Tubbs kick attempt good (H: #97 L.Freer, LS: #49 K.Chesney)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 19FG
12 plays · 63 yds · 1:2151% → 95%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
49.2%
(01:21) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete short middle to #15 N.Short caught at Army23, for 10 yards to the Army35, out of bounds at Army35, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
47.5%
(01:19) Shotgun #15 N.Short rush left for 3 yards gain to the Army38 (#5 R.Jones), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+4
45.4%
(01:12) Shotgun #29 B.Bartosh rush right for 4 yards gain to the Army42 (#9 L.Brown)Similar
Q4 0:42
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+2
43.8%
(00:52) #3 C.Hellums rush right for 2 yards gain to the Army44 (#8 D.Daley)Similar
Q4 0:32
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+2
46.0%
(00:32) #3 C.Hellums rush left for 2 yards gain to the Army46 (#36 M.Mustell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+42
44.4%
(00:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete deep middle to #84 B.Anderson caught at AF15, for 42 yards to the AF12 (#36 M.Mustell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
37.3%
(00:15) #3 C.Hellums rush right for 2 yards gain to the AF10 (#36 M.Mustell; #8 D.Daley)Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+27
4.8%
Dawson Jones 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:26
(01:26) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 2 yards gain to the Army00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:26 #96 R.Tubbs kick attempt good (H: #97 L.Freer, LS: #49 K.Chesney)
+49.8
FG · Q4 0:00
Dawson Jones 27 Yd Field Goal
-32.7
TD · Q4 7:00
(07:03) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush right for 10 yards gain to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:00, 1ST DOWN #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #38 C.Allan, LS: #55 O.Walter)
-30.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com