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USU

Utah State 14 at New Mexico 33

UNM
2025 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDSAFETYFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:02 · (11:09) #16 L.Rehkow punt 50 yards to the UNM00, Touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 95Home team on offense+16.3Score differential+6.8Garbage-time factor+4.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.3Pregame prior−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:29: (13:35) Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:29. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #13 L.Drzewiecki kick attempt good (H: #35 C.Steinkamp, LS: #47 T.Dubuc) — UNM win probability +7.7 pts (now 67%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:44: (02:52) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short middle to #88 C.Keith caught at USU27, for 40 yards to the USU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:44, 1ST DOWN #13 L.Drzewiecki kick attempt good (H: #35 C.Steinkamp, LS: #47 T.Dubuc) — UNM win probability +9.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:43: (00:49) Shotgun #13 J.Laubstein rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNM05 (#20 J.Miller) — UNM win probability +8.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:49: (12:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete short middle to #11 B.Pegan caught at UNM00, for 13 yards to the UNM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:49, 1ST DOWN #14 T.Rinker kick attempt good (H: #16 L.Rehkow, LS: #13 H.Hatch) — USU win probability +11.4 pts (now 17%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:28: (08:38) Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush middle for 41 yards gain to the USU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:28, 1ST DOWN #13 L.Drzewiecki kick attempt good (H: #35 C.Steinkamp, LS: #47 T.Dubuc) — UNM win probability +5.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 6 of 7USU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 13:19UNM 4th & 2 at UNM 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    59.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:14UNM 4th & 12 at USU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    58.9%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:14USU 4th & 11 at USU 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:27USU 4th & 15 at USU 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−2.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:08UNM 4th & 4 at UNM 48, up 14
    Close callPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:59UNM 4th & 5 at USU 23, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    76.0%−3.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:52USU 4th & 4 at UNM 41, down 19
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    16.0%−0.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:02USU 4th & 4 at midfield, down 19
    Close callPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:31UNM 4th & 14 at UNM 40, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−1.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:09USU 4th & 9 at UNM 38, down 19
    Close callPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    7.5%−0.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:08UNM 4th & 5 at UNM 42, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:42UNM 4th & 1 at UNM 34, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    90.6%−1.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:22USU 4th & 19 at USU 16, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 20 yds · 4:3747% → 48%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
47.1%
(14:59) Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UNM40 (#4 B.Hamblin; #14 B.Olevao Jr.)Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+2
47.2%
(14:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short left to #88 C.Keith caught at UNM39, for 2 yards to the UNM42 (#18 I.Larsen)Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+1
47.3%
(14:02) Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNM43 (#17 M.Brown; #20 J.Miller)Similar
Q1 13:19
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+3
47.4%
(13:26) Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNM46 (#23 T.Saxton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
47.8%
(12:53) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short right to #4 D.McKinney caught at UNM48, for 11 yards to the USU43 (#4 B.Hamblin; #11 B.Taylor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
48.1%
(12:12) Shotgun #2 J.Layne rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USU42 (#20 J.Miller; #28 C.Tujague)Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+7
48.3%
(11:32) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short right to #6 K.Johnson caught at USU35, for 7 yards to the USU35, out of bounds at USU35Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 2
OPP 35
0
48.5%
(10:59) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass incomplete short right to #14 S.Miller thrown to USU30 QB hurried by #17 M.BrownSimilar
Q1 10:49
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+10
48.3%
(10:49) Shotgun #13 J.Laubstein rush left for 16 yards gain to the USU19, out of bounds at USU19 PENALTY UNM Holding (#22 D.Johnson) 10 yards from USU35 to USU45. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 10:14
4TH & 12
OPP 45
0
47.9%
(10:20) #96 D.Hughes punt 41 yards to the USU04 fair catch by #8 J.Jacobs at USU04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2PUNT TD
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5352% → 49%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-1
48.2%
(10:12) Shotgun #8 J.Jacobs rush middle for 1 yard loss to the USU03 (#6 J.Eck)Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 11
OWN 3
0
48.3%
(09:39) Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass incomplete short left to #11 B.Pegan thrown to USU09Similar
Q1 9:31
3RD & 11
OWN 3
0
48.8%
(09:34) Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass incomplete short middle to #10 A.Garcia thrown to USU17 QB hurried by #16 M.SwaimSimilar
Q1 9:14
4TH & 11
OWN 3
+49
51.1%
(09:28) #16 L.Rehkow punt 46 yards to the USU49 #4 D.McKinney return 49 yards to the USU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:14 #13 L.Drzewiecki kick attempt good (H: #35 C.Steinkamp, LS: #47 T.Dubuc)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3INT
11 plays · 46 yds · 3:4549% → 49%
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
50.6%
(09:13) Shotgun #2 M.Davis rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USU29 (#7 T.Combs; #6 J.Eck)Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
50.7%
(08:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete short left to #11 B.Pegan caught at USU37, for 8 yards to the USU37 (#18 C.Coleman), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
50.9%
(08:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Davis rush middle for 11 yards gain to the USU48 (#7 T.Combs; #12 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
50.8%
(07:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete short right to #23 N.White caught at USU47, for 13 yards to the UNM39 (#92 B.Booker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
50.9%
(07:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 N.White rush left for 2 yards loss to the UNM41 (#26 C.McBean), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+5
51.3%
PENALTY USU False Start (#55 J.Liston) 5 yards from UNM41 to UNM46. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 17
OPP 46
+12
51.7%
(06:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes rush left for 12 yards gain to the UNM34 (#7 T.Combs), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+15
51.5%
(06:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass incomplete deep right to #11 B.Pegan thrown to UNM09 broken up by #2 A.Williams PENALTY UNM Pass Interference (#2 A.Williams) 15 yards from UNM34 to UNM19, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
50.9%
(05:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Garcia rush right for 7 yards gain to the UNM12 (#26 C.McBean) PENALTY USU Holding (#2 M.Davis) 10 yards from UNM19 to UNM29. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 20
OPP 29
0
51.5%
(05:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass intercepted by #26 C.McBean at UNM00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 4TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 6:4553% → 67%
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
53.4%
(05:20) Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UNM27 (#4 B.Hamblin; #1 N.Avinger)Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+6
53.8%
(04:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush right for 6 yards gain to the UNM33 (#4 B.Hamblin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
54.2%
(04:25) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short middle to #0 Z.Smith caught at UNM29, for 6 yards to the UNM39 (#28 C.Tujague; #20 J.Miller)Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+5
55.3%
(03:46) Shotgun #2 J.Layne rush right for 5 yards gain to the UNM44, out of bounds at UNM44, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
55.7%
(03:10) Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush right for 0 yards to the UNM44 (#17 M.Brown; #14 B.Olevao Jr.)Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+9
55.6%
(02:31) Shotgun #2 J.Layne rush middle for 9 yards gain to the USU47 (#1 N.Avinger)Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+3
56.2%
(01:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 S.Humphrey rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USU44 (#9 T.Morris; #28 C.Tujague), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+23
57.1%
(01:13) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short middle to #88 C.Keith caught at USU27, for 23 yards to the USU21 (#18 I.Larsen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
57.7%
(00:30) Shotgun #22 S.Humphrey rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USU16 (#4 B.Hamblin)Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+11
58.3%
(14:59) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short right to #88 C.Keith caught at USU08, for 11 yards to the USU05 (#4 B.Hamblin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
58.6%
(14:19) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass incomplete short left to #4 D.McKinney thrown to USU00 broken up by #18 I.LarsenSimilar
Q2 14:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
58.7%
(14:17) Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USU01 (#4 B.Hamblin)Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.7%
(13:35) Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:29. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #13 L.Drzewiecki kick attempt good (H: #35 C.Steinkamp, LS: #47 T.Dubuc)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 1:5736% → 33%
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
64.1%
(13:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete short left to #8 J.Jacobs caught at USU22, for 5 yards to the USU30 (#2 A.Williams), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
64.1%
(13:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes rush left for 4 yards gain to the USU34 (#7 T.Combs), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
64.3%
(12:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USU37 (#22 D.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
65.0%
(12:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes sacked for loss of 5 yards to the USU32 (#16 M.Swaim)Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 15
OWN 32
0
65.9%
(11:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass incomplete short right to #11 B.Pegan thrown to USU39Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 15
OWN 32
0
66.3%
(11:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass incomplete short right to #5 B.Boyd thrown to USU39 QB hurried by #6 J.EckSimilar
Q2 11:27
4TH & 15
OWN 32
0
66.6%
(11:33) #16 L.Rehkow punt 37 yards to the UNM31 fair catch by #4 D.McKinney at UNM31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:0968% → 70%
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
68.2%
(11:25) Shotgun #13 J.Laubstein rush middle for 11 yards gain to the UNM42 (#1 N.Avinger; #15 D.Mayes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
69.7%
(10:44) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass incomplete short middle to #7 D.Thomas thrown to UNM43 broken up by #4 B.Hamblin QB hurried by #28 C.TujagueSimilar
Q2 10:31
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+7
69.5%
(10:37) Shotgun #13 J.Laubstein rush left for 7 yards gain to the UNM49 (#18 I.Larsen), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 3
OWN 49
-1
69.8%
(10:02) Shotgun #22 S.Humphrey rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UNM48 (#14 B.Olevao Jr.; #20 J.Miller)Similar
Q2 9:08
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
70.0%
(09:16) #96 D.Hughes punt 51 yards to the USU01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7SF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 1
-1
71.1%
Jaxton Eck SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 8FG
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:4675% → 79%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
75.2%
(08:52) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short right to #6 K.Johnson caught at USU41, for 16 yards to the USU41 (#15 D.Mayes), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
74.6%
(08:19) Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USU38 (#25 C.Joe; #20 J.Miller)Similar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+10
76.2%
(07:40) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short left to #14 S.Miller caught at USU28, for 10 yards to the USU28, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
76.6%
(07:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USU25 (#55 T.Tuha)Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+2
77.2%
(06:47) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short right to #6 K.Johnson caught at USU24, for 2 yards to the USU23 (#11 B.Taylor)Similar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 5
OPP 23
0
77.4%
(06:06) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass incomplete short right to #6 K.Johnson thrown to USU14 QB hurried by #14 B.Olevao Jr.Similar
Q2 5:59
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+41
79.2%
(05:59) #13 L.Drzewiecki field goal attempt from 41 yards GOOD (H: #35 C.Steinkamp, LS: #47 T.Dubuc), clock 05:59 PENALTY USU Offside declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5923% → 29%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
76.6%
(05:57) Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete short right to #8 J.Jacobs caught at USU26, for 6 yards to the USU31 (#12 J.Johnson; #16 M.Swaim)Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
76.4%
(05:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Davis rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USU36 (#45 B.Karhu), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
71.4%
(05:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Davis rush middle for 64 yards gain to the UNM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:51, 1ST DOWN #14 T.Rinker kick attempt good (H: #16 L.Rehkow, LS: #13 H.Hatch)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 10TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:5873% → 85%
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
73.1%
(04:50) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short left to #88 C.Keith caught at UNM40, for 14 yards to the UNM44 (#1 N.Avinger; #17 M.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
74.5%
(04:11) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short left to #88 C.Keith caught at UNM48, for 9 yards to the USU47 (#17 M.Brown), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+7
75.3%
(03:34) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short right to #14 S.Miller caught at USU40, for 7 yards to the USU40 (#21 N.Flores), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
85.2%
(02:52) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short middle to #88 C.Keith caught at USU27, for 40 yards to the USU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:44, 1ST DOWN #13 L.Drzewiecki kick attempt good (H: #35 C.Steinkamp, LS: #47 T.Dubuc)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 1:4320% → 20%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
80.4%
(02:42) Shotgun #2 M.Davis rush right for 6 yards loss to the USU19 (#10 D.Agu)Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+15
81.3%
(02:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes sacked for loss of 10 yards to the USU09 (#1 K.James-Newby) PENALTY UNM Face Mask (#1 K.James-Newby) 15 yards from USU19 to USU34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+19
80.0%
(01:58) Shotgun #8 J.Jacobs rush middle for 19 yards gain to the UNM47 (#26 C.McBean), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
78.5%
(01:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass incomplete deep to #5 B.Boyd thrown to UNM22Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+1
79.5%
(01:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Jacobs rush right for 1 yard gain to the UNM46 (#9 G.Lopez; #6 J.Eck)Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+5
80.2%
(01:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass incomplete deep left to #10 A.Garcia thrown to UNM01 broken up by #2 A.Williams PENALTY UNM Offside (#7 T.Combs) 5 yards from UNM46 to UNM41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 4
OPP 41
0
79.3%
(01:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass incomplete short to #5 B.Boyd thrown to UNM35Similar
Q2 0:52
4TH & 4
OPP 41
0
79.8%
(00:59) #16 L.Rehkow punt 39 yards to the UNM02Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:3388% → 88%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
88.0%
(00:49) Shotgun #13 J.Laubstein rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNM05 (#20 J.Miller)Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 7
OWN 5
-1
88.0%
(00:14) Kneel down by New Mexico at UNM04 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 3:4718% → 15%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.2%
(14:59) Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete short right to #11 B.Pegan caught at USU29, for 5 yards to the USU30 (#2 A.Williams)Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
81.8%
(14:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Davis rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USU32 (#16 M.Swaim; #2 A.Williams)Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+12
82.4%
(14:00) Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete short left to #5 B.Boyd caught at USU35, for 12 yards to the USU44 (#5 F.Edwards), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
82.0%
(13:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Davis rush right for 2 yards gain to the USU46 (#25 D.Speech) PENALTY USU Illegal Shift (#15 T.Olsen) 5 yards from USU44 to USU39. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+1
83.3%
(13:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Davis rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USU40 (#92 B.Booker)Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 14
OWN 40
+10
84.8%
(12:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete short middle to #5 B.Boyd caught at USU38, for 16 yards to the UNM44 (#5 F.Edwards), out of bounds PENALTY USU Holding (#6 D.Starling) 10 yards from USU40 to USU30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 24
OWN 30
+3
85.5%
(12:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete short right to #2 M.Davis caught at USU25, for 3 yards to the USU33 (#92 B.Booker)Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 21
OWN 33
+17
86.1%
(11:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Davis rush middle for 17 yards gain to the USU50 (#26 C.McBean)Similar
Q3 11:02
4TH & 4
50
0
85.5%
(11:09) #16 L.Rehkow punt 50 yards to the UNM00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:2691% → 92%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
90.5%
(11:02) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass incomplete short right to #6 K.Johnson thrown to UNM38 broken up by #21 N.FloresSimilar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+24
90.6%
(10:56) Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 24 yards gain to the UNM44 (#1 N.Avinger; #4 B.Hamblin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
91.5%
(10:17) Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNM45 (#28 C.Tujague)Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+5
91.9%
(09:35) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short middle to #88 C.Keith caught at UNM49, for 5 yards to the UNM50 (#4 B.Hamblin)Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 4
50
+10
92.0%
(08:53) Shotgun #13 J.Laubstein rush left for 10 yards gain to the USU40 (#11 B.Taylor) PENALTY UNM Holding (#85 S.Mapa) 10 yards from UNM50 to UNM40. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 14
OWN 40
0
92.1%
(08:19) Shotgun #22 S.Humphrey rush middle for 0 yards to the UNM40 (#28 C.Tujague; #25 C.Joe)Similar
Q3 7:31
4TH & 14
OWN 40
0
91.8%
(07:38) #96 D.Hughes punt 60 yards to the USU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 42 yds · 4:1411% → 9%
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
89.0%
(07:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes rush right for 1 yard gain to the USU21 (#22 D.Johnson)Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+28
89.6%
(07:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete short right to #11 B.Pegan caught at USU40, for 28 yards to the USU49 (#28 J.Torres), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
89.3%
(06:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Davis rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UNM43 (#20 K.McCray; #22 D.Johnson)Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+4
89.1%
(05:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Davis rush right for 4 yards gain to the UNM39 (#7 T.Combs; #22 D.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
89.8%
(05:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes sacked for loss of 2 yards to the UNM41 (#17 O.Olorunfunmi)Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+7
90.4%
(04:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Jacobs rush right for 7 yards gain to the UNM34 (#7 T.Combs)Similar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+5
90.4%
PENALTY USU False Start (#57 T.Andersen) 5 yards from UNM34 to UNM39. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+1
90.9%
(03:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Jacobs rush right for 1 yard gain to the UNM38 (#6 J.Eck)Similar
Q3 3:09
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
91.3%
(03:15) #16 L.Rehkow punt 38 yards to the UNM00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 2:4895% → 96%
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
94.5%
(03:07) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short right to #7 D.Thomas caught at UNM37, for 17 yards to the UNM37 (#21 N.Flores), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
94.9%
(02:27) Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNM38 (#10 G.Iniguez Jr.; #18 I.Larsen)Similar
Q3 1:32
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+3
95.4%
(01:43) Shotgun #2 J.Layne rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNM41 (#17 M.Brown)Similar
Q3 0:46
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+1
95.7%
(00:57) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short right to #1 D.Bankston caught at UNM42, for 1 yard to the UNM42 (#18 I.Larsen)Similar
Q3 0:08
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
96.0%
(00:14) #96 D.Hughes punt 45 yards to the USU13 fair catch by #7 K.Davis at USU13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17TD
10 plays · 87 yds · 2:176% → 17%
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
93.8%
(00:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete short right to #2 M.Davis caught at USU12, for 0 yards to the USU13, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 14:58
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+6
93.9%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Davis rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USU17 (#45 B.Karhu) PENALTY USU Holding (#55 J.Liston) 6 yards from USU13 to USU07. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 16
OWN 7
+2
94.3%
(14:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete short left to #8 J.Jacobs caught at USU05, for 2 yards to the USU09 (#10 D.Agu; #6 J.Eck)Similar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 14
OWN 9
+15
94.8%
(14:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete short right to #5 B.Boyd caught at USU24, for 15 yards to the USU24 (#24 A.Levells), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
94.4%
(13:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass incomplete short left to #5 B.Boyd thrown to USU25 broken up by #25 D.SpeechSimilar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+4
94.5%
(13:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Jacobs rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USU28 (#6 J.Eck; #92 B.Booker)Similar
Q4 13:14
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+5
95.2%
(13:14) PENALTY UNM Offside (#1 K.James-Newby) 5 yards from USU28 to USU33. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+54
95.0%
(13:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete short middle to #11 B.Pegan caught at USU48, for 54 yards to the UNM13, out of bounds at UNM13, 1ST DOWN. #10 A.Garcia injured on the playSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
83.5%
(12:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete short middle to #11 B.Pegan caught at UNM00, for 13 yards to the UNM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:49, 1ST DOWN #14 T.Rinker kick attempt good (H: #16 L.Rehkow, LS: #13 H.Hatch)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 18TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 4:1290% → 98%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.9%
(12:47) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short right to #7 D.Thomas caught at UNM25, for 2 yards to the UNM27 (#18 I.Larsen)Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
91.1%
(12:10) Shotgun #13 J.Laubstein rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UNM34 (#1 N.Avinger; #14 B.Olevao Jr.)Similar
Q4 11:36
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
91.1%
(11:41) Shotgun #22 S.Humphrey rush middle for 0 yards to the UNM34 (#28 C.Tujague)Similar
Q4 10:42
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+14
90.7%
(10:50) #8 D.Buchanan rush right for 14 yards gain to the UNM48 (#1 N.Avinger), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
92.4%
(10:04) Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush middle for 9 yards gain to the USU43 (#24 W.Holmes; #1 N.Avinger)Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+2
92.8%
(09:27) Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush right for 2 yards gain to the USU41 (#24 W.Holmes; #4 B.Hamblin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
98.1%
(08:38) Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush middle for 41 yards gain to the USU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:28, 1ST DOWN #13 L.Drzewiecki kick attempt good (H: #35 C.Steinkamp, LS: #47 T.Dubuc)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:584% → 3%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.5%
(08:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass incomplete deep right to #11 B.Pegan thrown to USU48 broken up by #12 J.JohnsonSimilar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
96.5%
(08:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass incomplete short right to #11 B.Pegan thrown to USU40Similar
Q4 7:50
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-9
96.7%
(08:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes sacked for loss of 9 yards to the USU16 (#10 D.Agu)Similar
Q4 7:22
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
96.9%
(07:31) #16 L.Rehkow punt 54 yards to the UNM30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 20END OF GAME
14 plays · 42 yds · 6:5398% → 99%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
98.1%
(07:19) Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNM31 (#28 C.Tujague; #20 J.Miller)Similar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+9
98.4%
(06:38) Shotgun #13 J.Laubstein rush left for 9 yards gain to the UNM40 (#1 N.Avinger), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
98.6%
(05:59) Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNM43 (#10 G.Iniguez Jr.; #20 J.Miller)Similar
Q4 5:13
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+1
98.7%
(05:18) Shotgun #13 J.Laubstein rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNM44 (#28 C.Tujague; #10 G.Iniguez Jr.)Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+11
98.8%
(04:28) Shotgun #13 J.Laubstein rush middle for 11 yards gain to the USU45 (#18 I.Larsen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
98.8%
(03:37) Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush left for 4 yards gain to the USU41 (#17 M.Brown)Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+5
99.0%
(02:57) Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USU36 (#20 J.Miller; #92 J.Papu)Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+4
99.0%
(02:11) Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USU32 (#44 B.Maile), 1ST DOWN. #58 J.Tasi injured on the playSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
99.2%
(01:58) Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USU31 (#14 B.Olevao Jr.; #9 T.Morris)Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+3
99.2%
(01:16) Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USU28 (#28 C.Tujague; #20 J.Miller)Similar
Q4 0:26
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+5
99.3%
(00:26) Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush left for 3 yards gain to the USU25 (#14 B.Olevao Jr.; #1 N.Avinger) PENALTY UNM Illegal Formation 5 yards from USU28 to USU33. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 11
OPP 33
+5
99.3%
(00:19) Shotgun #1 D.Bankston rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USU28 (#4 B.Hamblin; #28 C.Tujague)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:49
(12:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass complete short middle to #11 B.Pegan caught at UNM00, for 13 yards to the UNM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:49, 1ST DOWN #14 T.Rinker kick attempt good (H: #16 L.Rehkow, LS: #13 H.Hatch)
-11.4
TD · Q2 2:44
(02:52) Shotgun #2 J.Layne pass complete short middle to #88 C.Keith caught at USU27, for 40 yards to the USU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:44, 1ST DOWN #13 L.Drzewiecki kick attempt good (H: #35 C.Steinkamp, LS: #47 T.Dubuc)
+9.9
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:43
(00:49) Shotgun #13 J.Laubstein rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNM05 (#20 J.Miller)
+8.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com