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BOIS

Boise State 24 at Nevada 3

NEV
2025 · Week 9 · Oct 24, 2025 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-6.5NEV 7.7%(01:45) #4 M.Madsen rush middle for 1yard gain to the Nevada00 TOUCHDOWN,clock 01:41 #35 C.Boomer kick attemptgood (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #42M.Hutton)AWAY 17 - HOME 3 · Q3 1:41
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:41 · (01:45) #4 M.Madsen rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Nevada00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:41 #35 C.Boomer kick attempt good (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #42 M.Hutton)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 119Pregame prior−17.4Home team on offense−28.4Score differential−12.4Garbage-time factor−6.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.9
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 0:00: Colton Boomer 21 Yd Field Goal — NEV win probability +0.9 pts (now 13%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q1 13:55: (14:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 D.Riley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BSU39 (#43 N.Ropati) — BOIS win probability +5.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:41: (01:45) #4 M.Madsen rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Nevada00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:41 #35 C.Boomer kick attempt good (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #42 M.Hutton) — BOIS win probability +6.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:15: (11:27) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #13 C.Penry caught at BSU28, for 8 yards to the BSU28 (#1 A.Odums) — BOIS win probability +4.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:09: (03:09) #24 D.Riley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Nevada00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:09 #35 C.Boomer kick attempt good (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #42 M.Hutton) — BOIS win probability +2.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 6BOIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 0:00BOIS 4th & 3 at NEV 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.1%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    81.4%−2.0
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:06BOIS 4th & 12 at NEV 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:50NEV 4th & 4 at BOIS 23, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.0%−<0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    14.1%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:40BOIS 4th & 9 at BOIS 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:30NEV 4th & 17 at BOIS 24, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.0%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    16.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    13.2%−2.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:28NEV 4th & 9 at BOIS 39, down 7
    Close callPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    15.8%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:02NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:02BOIS 4th & 11 at BOIS 39, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.5%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    84.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:05BOIS 4th & 4 at BOIS 43, up 10
    Close callPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:24NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:49BOIS 4th & 12 at NEV 46, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−1.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    83.3%−1.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:41BOIS 4th & 1 at NEV 1, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    80.7%−2.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    73.2%−10.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:02NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:01BOIS 4th & 2 at BOIS 28, up 14
    Close callPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%−0.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:37BOIS 4th & 2 at NEV 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    93.5%−1.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    93.6%−1.3
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1DOWNS
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:497% → 8%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
7.4%
(14:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short right to #20 C.Ramseur caught at Nevada24, for 14 yards to the Nevada39 (#53 M.Notarainni), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
7.5%
(14:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 C.Ramseur rush middle for 0 yards to the Nevada39 (#90 B.Fely)Similar
Q1 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
7.7%
(14:08) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass intercepted by #7 A.McCoy at BSU38, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2FG
16 plays · 72 yds · 15:0093% → 87%
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
7.3%
(15:00) #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 0 yards to the Nevada04 (#32 D.Labarbera)Similar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
10.9%
#24 D.Riley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Nevada41 (#44 A.Harnetiaux; #0 N.Jackson)Similar
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
11.9%
(03:50) Shotgun #24 D.Riley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BSU27 (#32 D.Labarbera; #0 N.Jackson)Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+16
12.2%
(03:16) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short to #5 C.Marshall caught at BSU39, for 16 yards to the BSU43 (#4 E.Rhambo; #44 A.Harnetiaux), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
12.1%
(02:39) #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short middle to #3 L.Caples thrown to BSU45 PENALTY Nevada Pass Interference (#1 A.Odums) 14 yards from BSU43 to Nevada43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
11.9%
#4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short left to #5 C.Marshall thrown to Nevada41Similar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+11
12.0%
#4 M.Madsen pass complete short to #5 C.Marshall caught at Nevada30, for 11 yards to the Nevada30 (#4 E.Rhambo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
11.8%
#4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short right to #3 L.Caples thrown to Nevada30Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+2
11.8%
#26 S.Gaines rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Nevada28 (#96 T.Vaughan)Similar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+11
12.0%
#4 M.Madsen pass complete short to #3 L.Caples for 11 yards to the Nevada17 (#17 Z.Abercrombie), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
11.7%
#26 S.Gaines rush right for 1 yard gain to the Nevada03 (#32 D.Labarbera; #15 B.Turner)Similar
Q1 2:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
11.9%
#26 S.Gaines rush right for 0 yards to the Nevada03 (#32 D.Labarbera; #15 B.Turner)Similar
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+13
12.5%
(00:29) #26 S.Gaines rush left for 13 yards gain to the Nevada04 (#1 A.Odums), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
13.4%
Colton Boomer 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 2:4992% → 91%
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
7.7%
(14:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 D.Riley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BSU39 (#43 N.Ropati)Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+6
7.9%
(13:24) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #24 D.Riley caught at BSU43, for 6 yards to the BSU45 (#33 S.Combs)Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+9
8.0%
(12:51) Shotgun #8 M.Sherrod rush middle for 9 yards gain to the Nevada46 (#32 D.Labarbera; #99 T.Witte), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
8.2%
(12:16) No Huddle #4 M.Madsen rush left for 1 yard gain to the Nevada45 (#32 D.Labarbera), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+2
8.3%
(11:52) No Huddle #24 D.Riley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Nevada43 (#32 D.Labarbera)Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
8.5%
(11:18) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short right to #5 C.Marshall thrown to Nevada29Similar
Q1 11:15
4TH & 7
OPP 43
+5
8.6%
PENALTY BSU Delay Of Game (#4 M.Madsen) 5 yards from Nevada43 to Nevada48. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 11:06
4TH & 12
OPP 48
0
8.7%
(11:07) #37 O.Doyle punt 48 yards to the Nevada00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4FG
14 plays · 58 yds · 6:499% → 12%
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
8.7%
(11:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short right to #13 C.Purdy caught at Nevada30, for 13 yards to the Nevada33 (#20 J.Mickey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
8.9%
(10:19) Shotgun #2 H.Turner rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Nevada34 (#53 M.Notarainni)Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+8
9.2%
(09:37) Shotgun #2 H.Turner rush right for 8 yards gain to the Nevada42 (#10 D.Ganter Jr.)Similar
Q1 8:47
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+5
9.5%
(08:53) Shotgun #20 C.Ramseur rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Nevada47 (#41 B.Phelps), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
10.0%
(08:15) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short middle to #41 D.Thomas caught at BSU40, for 14 yards to the BSU39 (#7 A.McCoy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
10.4%
(07:22) Shotgun #13 C.Purdy pass complete short middle to #18 M.Bellon caught at BSU39, for 3 yards to the BSU36 (#41 B.Phelps; #10 D.Ganter Jr.)Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 7
OPP 36
-4
10.6%
(06:45) Shotgun #6 C.Jones sacked for loss of 7 yards to the BSU43 (#5 J.Virgin-Morgan, #15 M.Williams)Similar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 14
OPP 43
+14
10.4%
(06:07) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short right to #9 M.Brown caught at BSU35, for 14 yards to the BSU29 (#10 D.Ganter Jr.; #0 T.Benefield), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
11.1%
(05:38) Shotgun #13 C.Purdy rush left for 2 yards gain to the BSU27 (#10 D.Ganter Jr.)Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+5
11.3%
(05:09) Shotgun #6 C.Jones rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BSU22, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 3
OPP 22
-1
11.4%
(04:28) Shotgun #20 C.Ramseur rush middle for 1 yard loss to the BSU23 (#53 M.Notarainni)Similar
Q1 3:50
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+40
11.5%
(03:53) #84 J.McFadden field goal attempt from 40 yards GOOD (H: #10 A.Bianco, LS: #51 C.Stack), clock 03:50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4686% → 85%
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
13.9%
(12:32) Shotgun #8 M.Sherrod rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BSU14 (#0 N.Jackson; #5 M.Kenion III)Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 9
OWN 14
0
14.3%
(11:54) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short left to #13 C.Penry thrown to BSU19Similar
Q2 11:47
3RD & 9
OWN 14
0
14.7%
(11:53) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete deep left to #88 M.Wagner thrown to BSU38 broken up by #44 A.HarnetiauxSimilar
Q2 11:40
4TH & 9
OWN 14
0
15.0%
(11:40) #37 O.Doyle punt 36 yards to the BSU50 fair catch by #18 M.Bellon at Nevada50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6DOWNS
9 plays · 26 yds · 3:0216% → 13%
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
50
+3
15.6%
(11:38) Shotgun #13 C.Purdy rush left for 3 yards gain to the BSU47 (#41 B.Phelps)Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+12
16.0%
(11:03) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short left to #85 J.Carpenter caught at Nevada50, for 12 yards to the BSU35 (#0 T.Benefield), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
16.6%
(10:47) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short right to #9 M.Brown caught at BSU27, for 6 yards to the BSU29 (#6 J.Earby)Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+13
14.2%
(10:18) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short middle to #41 D.Thomas caught at BSU18, for 13 yards to the BSU16 (#6 J.Earby), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
14.3%
(09:31) Shotgun #13 C.Purdy rush left for 14 yards gain to the BSU03 () PENALTY Nevada Holding (#85 J.Carpenter) 10 yards from BSU17 to BSU27. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 20
OPP 26
0
14.2%
(09:15) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass incomplete short middle to #41 D.Thomas thrown to BSU09Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 19
OPP 26
0
13.9%
(09:11) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass incomplete short right to #2 H.Turner thrown to BSU28Similar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 19
OPP 26
+2
13.4%
(09:08) Shotgun #20 C.Ramseur rush left for 2 yards gain to the BSU24 (#99 M.Madrie; #5 J.Virgin-Morgan)Similar
Q2 8:30
4TH & 17
OPP 24
0
12.9%
(08:30) Shotgun #10 A.Bianco pass complete short left to #85 J.Carpenter caught at BSU24, for 0 yards to the BSU24 (#5 J.Virgin-Morgan), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
12.8%
(08:30) #4 M.Madsen pass intercepted by #15 B.Turner at BSU43 #15 B.Turner return 2 yards to the BSU41, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3114% → 13%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
14.1%
(07:59) Shotgun #20 C.Ramseur rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BSU39 (#95 M.Stege)Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
14.2%
(07:39) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass incomplete short left to #20 C.Ramseur thrown to BSU35Similar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 9
OPP 39
0
13.9%
(07:35) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass incomplete short left to #20 C.Ramseur thrown to BSU37Similar
Q2 7:28
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
13.1%
(07:34) #39 B.Ettridge punt 33 yards to the BSU06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9TD
15 plays · 94 yds · 5:3987% → 89%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+9
12.9%
(07:20) #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 9 yards gain to the BSU15 (#43 N.Ropati; #33 S.Combs)Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 1
OWN 15
+7
12.8%
(06:48) #26 S.Gaines rush right for 7 yards gain to the BSU22 (#4 E.Rhambo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
13.0%
(06:22) Shotgun #24 D.Riley rush middle for 0 yards to the BSU22 (#5 M.Kenion III)Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+5
13.2%
(05:53) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #24 D.Riley caught at BSU27, for 8 yards to the BSU30 (#2 E.Smith) PENALTY Nevada Offside (#33 S.Combs) 5 yards from BSU22 to BSU27. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+5
12.8%
(05:22) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #85 M.Lauter caught at BSU31, for 5 yards to the BSU32 (#33 S.Combs), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
12.8%
(04:58) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short left to #85 M.Lauter thrown to BSU34Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+7
13.2%
(04:58) Shotgun #8 M.Sherrod rush right for 7 yards gain to the BSU39 (#33 S.Combs; #96 T.Vaughan)Similar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+5
12.7%
(04:18) #8 M.Sherrod rush right for 5 yards gain to the BSU44 (#4 E.Rhambo; #2 E.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
12.7%
(03:35) Shotgun #8 M.Sherrod rush right for 2 yards gain to the BSU46 (#44 A.Harnetiaux; #0 N.Jackson)Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+37
12.5%
(03:16) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete deep right to #80 C.Bates caught at Nevada17, for 37 yards to the Nevada17 (#4 E.Rhambo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
11.9%
(02:58) #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #13 C.Penry caught at Nevada07, for 10 yards to the Nevada07, out of bounds at Nevada07, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
11.8%
(02:28) #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Nevada04 (#0 N.Jackson)Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
11.6%
(02:00) #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 0 yards to the Nevada04 (#0 N.Jackson)Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
11.0%
PENALTY Nevada UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#0 N.Jackson) 2 yards from Nevada04 to Nevada02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+2
11.1%
Sire Gaines 2 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:2712% → 13%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
12.0%
(01:35) Shotgun #20 C.Ramseur rush middle for 11 yards gain to the Nevada36 (#0 T.Benefield), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
12.5%
(01:18) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short left to #20 C.Ramseur caught at Nevada36, for 1 yard to the Nevada37 (#41 B.Phelps), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
12.4%
(01:15) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass incomplete deep left to #18 M.Bellon thrown to BSU39Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+1
12.2%
(01:10) Shotgun #20 C.Ramseur rush left for 1 yard gain to the Nevada38 (#99 M.Madrie)Similar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
12.5%
(01:02) #39 B.Ettridge punt 47 yards to the BSU15 PENALTY Nevada Personal Foul (#45 C.Smalley) 15 yards from BSU15 to BSU30, 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11END OF HALF
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0087% → 88%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 15
OWN 35
0
12.8%
#4 M.Madsen pass incomplete deep left to #5 C.Marshall thrown to Nevada35Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 15
OWN 25
-4
13.1%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen sacked for loss of 4 yards to the BSU29 (#9 J.Maldonado)Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 21
OWN 29
+10
13.4%
Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 10 yards gain to the BSU39 (#2 E.Smith)Similar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
13.3%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete deep right to #3 L.Caples thrown to Nevada20, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
12.5%
PENALTY BSU False Start (#75 D.Metoyer) 5 yards from BSU30 to BSU25. NO PLAYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:5087% → 87%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
13.2%
(15:00) Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BSU29 (#0 N.Jackson)Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
13.1%
(14:26) Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 8 yards gain to the BSU37 (#0 N.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
13.0%
(13:40) Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush right for 2 yards gain to the BSU39 (#0 N.Jackson; #33 S.Combs)Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
12.6%
(13:03) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short right to #5 C.Marshall thrown to BSU49 broken up by #1 A.OdumsSimilar
Q3 12:33
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+4
12.9%
(13:00) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen rush left for 4 yards gain to the BSU43 (#0 N.Jackson)Similar
Q3 12:05
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
13.4%
(12:09) #37 O.Doyle punt 42 yards to the Nevada15 fair catch by #18 M.Bellon at Nevada15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 4:3513% → 14%
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
13.2%
(12:04) Shotgun #25 K.Woods rush left for 4 yards gain to the Nevada19 (#53 M.Notarainni)Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 6
OWN 19
0
13.4%
(11:27) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass incomplete short left to #25 K.Woods thrown to Nevada29Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+7
12.8%
(11:25) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short left to #85 J.Carpenter caught at Nevada26, for 7 yards to the Nevada26 (#10 D.Ganter Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
13.8%
(10:41) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass incomplete short right to #85 J.Carpenter thrown to Nevada28 broken up by #53 M.NotarainniSimilar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+5
13.6%
(10:37) Shotgun #6 C.Jones rush right for 5 yards gain to the Nevada31 (#6 J.Earby)Similar
Q3 9:36
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+6
13.6%
(09:52) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short right to #18 M.Bellon caught at Nevada37, for 6 yards to the Nevada37 (#6 J.Earby), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
14.4%
(09:06) Shotgun #2 H.Turner rush left for 7 yards gain to the Nevada44 (#51 R.Caywood)Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 3
OWN 44
-3
15.3%
(08:22) Shotgun #6 C.Jones sacked for loss of 5 yards to the Nevada39 (#90 B.Fely, #92 D.Latu)Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
14.4%
(07:36) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass incomplete deep right to #41 D.Thomas thrown to BSU31 broken up by #31 C.MillerSimilar
Q3 7:24
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
13.6%
(07:29) #39 B.Ettridge punt 50 yards to the BSU11 fair catch by #8 M.Sherrod at BSU11 PENALTY Nevada Personal Foul (#3 C.Brown) 15 yards from BSU11 to BSU26, 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:2586% → 86%
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
14.3%
(07:24) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short middle to #3 L.Caples caught at BSU34, for 11 yards to the BSU37 (#22 H.McDonald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
13.9%
(06:51) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete deep right to #3 L.Caples thrown to Nevada31Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
14.0%
(06:47) #24 D.Riley rush right for 4 yards gain to the BSU41 (#32 D.Labarbera)Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+15
13.3%
(06:02) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short middle to #13 C.Penry caught at BSU44, for 15 yards to the Nevada44 (#4 E.Rhambo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
12.2%
(05:21) Shotgun Boise State rush middle for 3 yards loss to the Nevada47 fumbled by Boise State at recovered by BSU #4 M.Madsen at Nevada47, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+1
12.4%
(04:29) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #8 M.Sherrod caught at Nevada46, for 1 yard to the Nevada46 (#0 N.Jackson; #99 T.Witte)Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 12
OPP 46
0
12.7%
(04:00) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short right to #3 L.Caples thrown to Nevada30 broken up by #4 E.RhamboSimilar
Q3 3:49
4TH & 12
OPP 46
+1
14.4%
(03:58) #37 O.Doyle punt 41 yards to the Nevada05 muffed by Nevada at Nevada05 recovered by BSU #55 M.Tuioti at Nevada06, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15TD
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5088% → 92%
Q3 3:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
11.9%
(03:47) #4 M.Madsen rush right for 5 yards gain to the Nevada01 (#43 N.Ropati)Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
11.9%
(03:05) #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 0 yards to the Nevada01 (#0 N.Jackson; #98 D.Paine Jr.)Similar
Q3 2:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
12.6%
(02:32) #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 0 yards to the Nevada01 (#33 S.Combs)Similar
Q3 1:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
14.1%
(01:47) #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 0 yards to the Nevada01 (#32 D.Labarbera) PENALTY Nevada Offside. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 1:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.7%
(01:45) #4 M.Madsen rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Nevada00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:41 #35 C.Boomer kick attempt good (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #42 M.Hutton)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16Uncategorized
7 plays · 2 yds · 1:399% → 9%
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
8.9%
(01:41) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass incomplete short right to #85 J.Carpenter thrown to Nevada30 PENALTY Nevada Holding (#11 J.Henry) 10 yards from Nevada25 to Nevada15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+1
8.7%
(01:35) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short right to #13 C.Purdy caught at Nevada16, for 1 yard to the Nevada16 (#53 M.Notarainni)Similar
Q3 0:37
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+11
8.7%
(00:45) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short right to #85 J.Carpenter caught at Nevada19, for 11 yards to the Nevada27 (#0 T.Benefield)Similar
Q3 0:04
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
8.6%
(00:09) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass incomplete short right to #41 D.Thomas thrown to Nevada35Similar
Q3 0:02
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
8.6%
(00:02) #39 B.Ettridge punt 53 yards to the BSU20 #8 M.Sherrod return 0 yards to the BSU20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4992% → 93%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
7.6%
(15:00) #4 M.Madsen rush left for 9 yards gain to the BSU29 (#5 M.Kenion III), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 1
OWN 29
-1
6.5%
(14:23) #8 M.Sherrod rush left for 1 yard loss to the BSU28 (#99 T.Witte)Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
6.9%
(14:10) #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short left to #83 Q.Williams Jr. thrown to BSU35Similar
Q4 14:01
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+3
7.1%
(14:07) #37 O.Doyle punt 47 yards to the Nevada25 #18 M.Bellon return 3 yards to the Nevada28 (#20 J.Mickey)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18INT
5 plays · 47 yds · 2:249% → 10%
Q4 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+24
9.1%
(14:01) Shotgun #2 H.Turner rush right for 24 yards gain to the BSU48 (#7 A.McCoy), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+23
10.3%
(13:23) Shotgun #2 H.Turner rush right for 23 yards gain to the BSU25 (#0 T.Benefield), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-3
11.1%
(12:40) Shotgun #13 C.Purdy rush middle for 3 yards loss to the BSU28 (#0 T.Benefield)Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 13
OPP 28
+3
10.7%
(12:00) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short right to #9 M.Brown caught at BSU25, for 3 yards to the BSU25 (#7 A.McCoy), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 11:27
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
10.3%
(11:32) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass intercepted by #6 J.Earby at BSU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 8:0694% → 99%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
5.7%
(11:27) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #13 C.Penry caught at BSU28, for 8 yards to the BSU28 (#1 A.Odums)Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+13
5.5%
(11:04) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short to #3 L.Caples caught at BSU31, for 13 yards to the BSU41 (#9 J.Maldonado), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
5.1%
(10:35) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #85 M.Lauter caught at BSU50, for 12 yards to the Nevada47 (#1 A.Odums), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-4
4.6%
(09:56) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen sacked for loss of 4 yards to the BSU49 (#32 D.Labarbera)Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 14
OWN 49
+4
4.7%
(09:15) Shotgun #8 M.Sherrod rush left for 4 yards gain to the Nevada47 (#44 A.Harnetiaux)Similar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+8
4.8%
(08:29) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short middle to #88 M.Wagner caught at Nevada44, for 8 yards to the Nevada39 (#14 D.Warnell; #0 N.Jackson)Similar
Q4 7:37
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+5
5.0%
(07:52) #4 M.Madsen rush left for 5 yards gain to the Nevada34 (#33 S.Combs), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
4.2%
(07:04) Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Nevada33 (#98 D.Paine Jr.)Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+6
4.0%
(06:33) #24 D.Riley rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Nevada27 (#0 N.Jackson; #96 T.Vaughan)Similar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+5
4.1%
(05:48) Shotgun #24 D.Riley rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Nevada22 (#32 D.Labarbera), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
3.9%
(05:18) #24 D.Riley rush middle for 1 yard loss to the Nevada23 (#5 M.Kenion III)Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+4
3.6%
(04:38) #24 D.Riley rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Nevada19 (#32 D.Labarbera)Similar
Q4 3:42
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+10
3.1%
(03:54) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #24 D.Riley caught at Nevada16, for 10 yards to the Nevada09 (#22 H.McDonald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
2.7%
(03:40) #24 D.Riley rush middle for 8 yards gain to the Nevada01 (#98 D.Paine Jr.; #25 A.Ambush)Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.6%
(03:09) #24 D.Riley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Nevada00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:09 #35 C.Boomer kick attempt good (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #42 M.Hutton)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20FUMBLE
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:021% → 1%
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
0.9%
(03:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 H.Turner rush middle for 10 yards gain to the Nevada35 (#18 S.Brooks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
0.9%
(02:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short right to #9 M.Brown caught at Nevada47, for 12 yards to the Nevada47 (#16 F.Johnson Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
0.9%
(02:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass incomplete deep right to #12 N.Burleson II thrown to BSU33 broken up by #23 S.SmithSimilar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
0.9%
(02:16) Shotgun #2 H.Turner rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BSU49 (#43 J.Ripp)Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
0.8%
(02:00) Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short right to #18 M.Bellon caught at BSU47, for 0 yards to the BSU49 fumbled by #18 M.Bellon at BSU49 forced by #14 D.Freeney recovered by BSU #41 B.Phelps at BSU49, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 2:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 49
-3
0.5%
(00:00) Kneel down by #4 M.Madsen at BSU48 for loss of 3 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
0.4%
(00:00) #1 J.Dubar rush left for 2 yards gain to the Nevada49 (#0 N.Jackson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:41
(01:45) #4 M.Madsen rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Nevada00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:41 #35 C.Boomer kick attempt good (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #42 M.Hutton)
-6.5
KEY PLAY · Q1 13:55
(14:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 D.Riley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BSU39 (#43 N.Ropati)
-5.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 11:15
(11:27) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #13 C.Penry caught at BSU28, for 8 yards to the BSU28 (#1 A.Odums)
-4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com