NEV
Nevada 22 at New Mexico 24
UNM2025 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2025 · University Stadium (NM)
Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey play
What moved it - hover a play below
Q4 0:00 · (00:34) Kneel down by New Mexico at NEV41 for loss of 1 yard.
01
Market gave UNM a 84% pregame chance
+21
02
UNM has the ball
+9
03
Blowout context favors the offense
+4
04
0:00 left in regulation
−1
Play by play - hover to pin the curve
Q1 15:00
Keaton Emmett kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q1 14:55
Scottre Humphrey run for 3 yds to the UNM 28
+1.3
Q1 14:19
(14:23) Shotgun Layne,Jack pass complete short left to Humphrey,Scottre caught at UNM35, for 7 yards to the UNM35 (Kenion III,Murvin), out of bounds PENALTY NEV Offside 5 yards from UNM28 to UNM33. NO PLAY.
-0.2
Q1 14:03
Scottre Humphrey run for 3 yds to the UNM 36 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 13:23
Damon Bankston run for 5 yds to the UNM 41
+0.1
Q1 12:49
Damon Bankston run for 1 yd to the UNM 42
+0.3
Q1 12:11
Damon Bankston run for 7 yds to the UNM 49 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q1 11:21
Jack Layne run for 5 yds to the NEV 46
+0.2
Q1 10:50
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Damon Bankston
+0.4
Q1 10:45
Jack Layne pass incomplete
-0.1
Q1 10:40
(10:43) Shotgun Layne,Jack pass incomplete deep right to Johnson,Keagan thrown to NEV24 broken up by Odums,AJ PENALTY NEV Offside (Maldonado,Jonathan) 5 yards from NEV46 to NEV41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
-0.1
Q1 10:31
Jack Layne pass complete to Dorian Thomas for 14 yds to the NEV 27 for a 1ST down
+0.4
Q1 10:10
D.J. McKinney run for 8 yds to the NEV 19
0.0
Q1 9:31
Jack Layne run for a loss of 3 yards to the NEV 22 Jack Layne fumbled, recovered by UNM Jack Layne
+0.1
Q1 9:09
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 4 yds to the NEV 18
-0.1
Q1 8:40
James Laubstein run for 7 yds to the NEV 11 for a 1ST down
-0.4
Q1 8:03
Scottre Humphrey run for 3 yds to the NEV 8
+0.3
Q1 7:26
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Dorian Thomas
0.0
Q1 7:21
(07:24) Shotgun Layne,Jack pass incomplete short right to Johnson,Keagan thrown to NEV00 broken up by Odums,AJ PENALTY NEV Offside declined NEV Pass Interference (Odums,AJ) 6 yards from NEV08 to NEV02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
-0.1
Q1 7:16
D.J. McKinney run for 2 yds for a TD Nevada Penalty, Defensive Offside (Nakian Jackson) declined (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)
+5.1
Q1 7:10
Charles Steinkamp kickoff for 65 yds , Ky Woods return for 19 yds to the NEV 19
-0.2
Q1 7:03
Caleb Ramseur run for 2 yds to the NEV 21
-0.5
Q1 6:19
Carter Jones run for 2 yds to the NEV 23
-0.2
Q1 5:48
Carter Jones pass incomplete
-0.1
Q1 5:37
Bailey Ettridge punt for 49 yds
-0.1
Q1 5:29
Carter Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNM 21
-0.9
Q1 4:56
Herschel Turner run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNM 22
0.0
Q1 4:24
Timeout Nevada, clock 04:24
-0.5
Q1 4:13
Carter Jones pass complete to Jordan Brown for 6 yds to the UNM 16
0.0
Q1 3:41
Joe McFadden 33 yd FG GOOD
-4.9
Q1 3:41
Keaton Emmett kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+1.0
Q1 3:34
Scottre Humphrey run for 6 yds to the UNM 31
+2.3
Q1 2:58
Scottre Humphrey run for 23 yds to the NEV 46 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 2:23
D.J. McKinney run for 2 yds to the NEV 44
+0.4
Q1 1:46
D.J. McKinney run for 2 yds to the NEV 42
-0.3
Q1 1:07
Jack Layne pass complete to D.J. McKinney for no gain to the NEV 42
+0.1
Q1 0:33
Jack Layne sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the NEV 49
-0.5
Q1 0:24
Carter Jones pass complete to Jace Henry for 7 yds to the UNM 44
-3.1
Q1 0:00
Carter Jones pass complete to Dakota Thomas for 5 yds to the UNM 39 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q2 14:53
Caleb Ramseur run for 1 yd to the UNM 38
-0.3
Q2 14:16
(14:21) No Huddle-Shotgun Purdy,Chubba rush left for 8 yards gain to the UNM30 (Williams,Abraham) PENALTY NEV Illegal Formation 5 yards from UNM38 to UNM43. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q2 13:58
Carter Jones pass complete to Dakota Thomas for 6 yds to the UNM 37
+0.1
Q2 13:25
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Jordan Brown
-0.1
Q2 13:14
Bailey Ettridge punt for 28 yds
+0.4
Q2 13:07
(13:14) Shotgun Bankston,Damon rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNM12 (Smith,EJ; Combs,Stone) PENALTY UNM Holding (Aliane,Malik) 4 yards from UNM09 to UNM05. NO PLAY.
+4.1
Q2 12:38
Jack Layne run for no gain to the UNM 5
0.0
Q2 12:05
Jack Layne pass complete to Dorian Thomas for 11 yds to the UNM 16
0.0
Q2 11:22
Jack Layne run for 10 yds to the UNM 26 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 11:03
Damon Bankston run for 4 yds to the UNM 30
0.0
Q2 10:23
Jack Layne pass complete to Dorian Thomas for 28 yds to the NEV 42 for a 1ST down Nevada Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (AJ Odums) to the NEV 27 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 9:53
Jack Layne pass complete to James Laubstein for 13 yds to the NEV 14 for a 1ST down Nevada Penalty, Personal Foul (Dylan Labarbera) to the NEV 7 for a 1ST down
+0.6
Q2 9:46
Timeout New Mexico, clock 09:46
-0.4
Q2 9:46
(09:45) PENALTY UNM False Start (Brown,Nevell) 5 yards from NEV07 to NEV12. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q2 9:46
Timeout Nevada, clock 09:46
0.0
Q2 9:40
Scottre Humphrey run for 2 yds to the NEV 10
0.0
Q2 9:07
(09:10) Shotgun Layne,Jack pass incomplete short middle to Smith,Zhaiel thrown to NEV00 PENALTY NEV Offside declined NEV Pass Interference (Kenion III,Murvin) 8 yards from NEV10 to NEV02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q2 9:01
(09:04) Shotgun Layne,Jack pass incomplete short right to Keith,Cade thrown to NEV00 PENALTY UNM Holding (Sillemon,Isaiah) 10 yards from NEV02 to NEV12. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q2 9:01
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Cade Keith
0.0
Q2 8:39
Scottre Humphrey run for 2 yds to the NEV 10
0.0
Q2 8:13
Jack Layne pass complete to Dorian Thomas for 5 yds to the NEV 5
+0.2
Q2 7:34
Jack Layne run for 4 yds to the NEV 1
-0.1
Q2 6:51
Scottre Humphrey run for 1 yd for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)
+7.2
Q2 6:51
Charles Steinkamp kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q2 6:44
Caleb Ramseur run for 1 yd to the NEV 26
-2.7
Q2 6:05
Caleb Ramseur run for 3 yds to the NEV 29
+0.1
Q2 5:20
Carter Jones pass complete to Marshaun Brown for 14 yds to the NEV 43 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 4:51
Carter Jones pass complete to Marshaun Brown for 18 yds to the UNM 39 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 4:13
Carter Jones pass complete to Dakota Thomas for 5 yds to the UNM 34
-0.3
Q2 3:43
Caleb Ramseur run for 7 yds to the UNM 27 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q2 3:00
Carter Jones pass complete to Jett Carpenter for a loss of 1 yard to the UNM 28
+0.5
Q2 2:23
Carter Jones pass complete to Dakota Thomas for 6 yds to the UNM 22
0.0
Q2 2:00
Timeout New Mexico, clock 02:00
0.0
Q2 2:00
PENALTY NEV False Start (Madrigal,Andrew) 5 yards from UNM22 to UNM27. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q2 1:54
Carter Jones pass complete to Dakota Thomas for 8 yds to the UNM 19
0.0
Q2 1:54
Timeout New Mexico, clock 01:54
+0.2
Q2 1:51
Joe McFadden 36 yd FG GOOD
-2.4
Q2 1:51
Keaton Emmett kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+0.4
Q2 1:45
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 10 yds to the UNM 35 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q2 1:37
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Keagan Johnson
0.0
Q2 1:37
PENALTY UNM False Start (Robnett,Kaden) 5 yards from UNM35 to UNM30. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q2 1:30
(01:35) Shotgun Bankston,Damon rush right for 6 yards gain to the UNM36 (Witte,Thomas) PENALTY UNM Holding (Lawrence,Tyler) 10 yards from UNM30 to UNM20. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q2 1:24
Timeout Nevada, clock 01:24
0.0
Q2 1:23
Damon Bankston run for 3 yds to the UNM 23
0.0
Q2 1:14
Damon Bankston run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNM 22 Damon Bankston fumbled, recovered by NEV Bishop Turner
0.0
Q2 1:05
Carter Jones pass complete to Caleb Ramseur for 10 yds to the UNM 12 for a 1ST down
-0.9
Q2 0:55
Carter Jones run for 9 yds to the UNM 3
0.0
Q2 0:41
Caleb Ramseur run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-10.7
Q2 0:41
Timeout New Mexico, clock 00:41
+10.7
Q2 0:33
Keaton Emmett kickoff for 65 yds , Damon Bankston return for 21 yds to the UNM 21
-8.9
Q2 0:00
(00:34) Kneel down by New Mexico at UNM20 for loss of 1 yard.
-0.6
Q3 14:53
Charles Steinkamp kickoff for 61 yds , Ky Woods return for 19 yds to the NEV 23
+4.0
Q3 14:46
Caleb Ramseur run for 2 yds to the NEV 25
-3.4
Q3 13:58
Carter Jones pass complete to Chubba Purdy for 4 yds to the NEV 29
0.0
Q3 13:37
Caleb Ramseur run for 3 yds to the NEV 32
-0.3
Q3 12:57
Caleb Ramseur run for no gain to the NEV 32
-0.1
Q3 12:49
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Keagan Johnson
+4.3
Q3 12:43
D.J. McKinney run for 2 yds to the NEV 30
0.0
Q3 12:03
Jack Layne run for 8 yds to the NEV 22 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q3 11:45
D.J. McKinney run for 22 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)
+7.4
Q3 11:45
Charles Steinkamp kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-0.2
Q3 11:37
Carter Jones pass complete to Marshaun Brown for 4 yds to the NEV 29
-0.7
Q3 10:41
Chubba Purdy run for 1 yd to the NEV 30
0.0
Q3 10:21
Carter Jones pass complete to Marshaun Brown for 8 yds to the NEV 38 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 9:56
Carter Jones pass complete to Stone Combs for 9 yds to the NEV 47
0.0
Q3 9:24
Dominic Kelley run for no gain to the NEV 47
+0.6
Q3 8:45
Dominic Kelley run for no gain to the NEV 47
0.0
Q3 7:51
Carter Jones run for 2 yds to the NEV 49 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 7:15
Carter Jones run for 2 yds to the UNM 49
-0.1
Q3 6:28
Carter Jones pass complete to Dakota Thomas for 6 yds to the UNM 43
+0.9
Q3 5:48
Carter Jones pass complete to Dakota Thomas for 7 yds to the UNM 36 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q3 5:17
Herschel Turner run for 1 yd to the UNM 35
0.0
Q3 4:40
Carter Jones run for 7 yds to the UNM 28
-0.5
Q3 3:58
Caleb Ramseur run for 11 yds to the UNM 17 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q3 3:30
Carter Jones pass complete to Marshaun Brown for 13 yds to the UNM 4 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 3:25
Caleb Ramseur run for 4 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)
-15.6
Q3 3:25
Keaton Emmett kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+2.0
Q3 3:14
James Laubstein run for 6 yds to the UNM 31
+3.6
Q3 2:35
Scottre Humphrey run for 4 yds to the UNM 35 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 2:13
Jack Layne run for 54 yds to the NEV 11 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 1:58
Scottre Humphrey run for 4 yds to the NEV 7
+1.0
Q3 1:38
Scottre Humphrey run for 2 yds to the NEV 5
0.0
Q3 0:55
PENALTY UNM False Start (Aliane,Malik) 5 yards from NEV05 to NEV10. NO PLAY.
-0.1
Q3 0:24
Jack Layne pass complete to Dorian Thomas for 2 yds to the NEV 12
0.0
Q3 0:00
Luke Drzewiecki 29 yd FG GOOD
+5.1
Q4 15:00
Grant Glasgow kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-0.6
Q4 14:49
Carter Jones pass complete to Chubba Purdy for 11 yds to the NEV 36 for a 1ST down
-3.9
Q4 14:14
Carter Jones pass complete to Dakota Thomas for 24 yds to the UNM 40 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q4 13:41
Caleb Ramseur run for no gain to the UNM 40
-1.6
Q4 13:01
Carter Jones sacked by Brett Karhu for a loss of 5 yards to the UNM 45
0.0
Q4 12:14
Carter Jones pass complete to Marshaun Brown for 20 yds to the UNM 25 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q4 11:46
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Zedekiah Anahu-Ambrosio
-0.3
Q4 11:31
Herschel Turner run for 1 yd to the UNM 24
0.0
Q4 11:00
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Marshaun Brown
0.0
Q4 10:55
Joe McFadden 41 yd FG GOOD
-5.0
Q4 10:55
Keaton Emmett kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+1.4
Q4 10:37
Jack Layne pass complete to D.J. McKinney for 39 yds to the NEV 36 for a 1ST down
+5.7
Q4 10:24
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 2 yds to the NEV 34
+0.8
Q4 9:48
D.J. McKinney run for 2 yds to the NEV 32
-0.2
Q4 9:04
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 8 yds to the NEV 24 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q4 8:44
PENALTY NEV Delay Of Game (Paine Jr.,David) 5 yards from NEV24 to NEV19. NO PLAY.
+0.1
Q4 8:22
D.J. McKinney run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEV 20
-0.2
Q4 7:44
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Shawn Miller
-0.6
Q4 7:35
James Laubstein run for 11 yds to the NEV 9 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q4 6:54
(07:00) Shotgun Laubstein,James rush left for 9 yards gain to the NEV00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 06:54 PENALTY UNM Holding (Brown,Nevell) 10 yards from NEV09 to NEV19. NO PLAY.
+0.1
Q4 6:33
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 2 yds to the NEV 17
+0.4
Q4 6:07
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Keagan Johnson
-0.1
Q4 6:04
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Keagan Johnson
-0.1
Q4 6:00
Luke Drzewiecki 34 yd FG MISSED
-0.4
Q4 5:48
Carter Jones pass complete to Marshaun Brown for 2 yds to the NEV 18
-4.4
Q4 5:17
(05:20) Shotgun Jones,Carter pass incomplete deep left to Thomas,Dakota thrown to NEV49 PENALTY UNM Pass Interference (Coleman,Caleb) 15 yards from NEV18 to NEV33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q4 5:10
Caleb Ramseur run for no gain to the NEV 33
0.0
Q4 4:17
Carter Jones pass complete to Jett Carpenter for 14 yds to the NEV 47 for a 1ST down
+1.2
Q4 3:55
Caleb Ramseur run for 2 yds to the NEV 49
-1.1
Q4 3:10
Carter Jones run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line
0.0
Q4 2:34
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Jett Carpenter
-0.4
Q4 2:34
Timeout Nevada, clock 02:34
+0.5
Q4 2:28
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Dakota Thomas
0.0
Q4 2:24
Scottre Humphrey run for 3 yds to the NEV 47
+6.9
Q4 2:24
Timeout Nevada, clock 02:24
0.0
Q4 2:20
James Laubstein run for 2 yds to the NEV 45
0.0
Q4 2:20
Timeout Nevada, clock 02:20
-0.1
Q4 2:07
Jack Layne pass complete to D.J. McKinney for 4 yds to the NEV 41
0.0
Q4 1:55
Scottre Humphrey run for 2 yds to the NEV 39 for a 1ST down
+1.0
Q4 1:20
(01:22) Kneel down by New Mexico at NEV40 for loss of 1 yard.
+1.7
Q4 0:00
(00:34) Kneel down by New Mexico at NEV41 for loss of 1 yard.
+5.5
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:25
Caleb Ramseur run for 4 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)
-15.6
TD · Q2 0:41
Caleb Ramseur run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-10.7
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:41
Timeout New Mexico, clock 00:41
+10.7