ARDLINETry the model
UNLV

UNLV 31 at Boise State 56

BOIS
2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Albertsons Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadUNLV aheadconfidence bandkey play
Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTD
What moved it - hover a play below
Q4 0:00 · (00:28) Kneel down by Boise State at NLV45 for loss of 1 yard.
01
BOIS has the ball
+25
02
BOIS leading by 25
+9
03
Market gave BOIS a 82% pregame chance
+2
04
Blowout context favors the offense
+1
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
UNLV · Drive 1PUNT · 5 plays · 3 yds
Q1 15:00
Colton Boomer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q1 14:48
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Marco Notarainni for a loss of 7 yards to the UNLV 18
-2.2
Q1 14:21
Jai'Den Thomas run for 10 yds to the UNLV 28
-0.9
Q1 13:43
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Jaden Bradley
0.0
Q1 13:39
Cameron Brown punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BOIS 40
0.0
BOIS · Drive 2TD · 5 plays · 60 yds
Q1 13:34
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Latrell Caples
+3.4
Q1 13:31
Dylan Riley run for 1 yd to the BOIS 41
0.0
Q1 12:36
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ben Ford for 26 yds to the UNLV 33 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q1 12:06
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Latrell Caples
+1.2
Q1 12:01
Dylan Riley run for 31 yds to the UNLV 2 for a 1ST down
0.0
UNLV · Drive 3PUNT · 1 play · 28 yds
Q1 11:27
Colton Boomer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+6.2
BOIS · Drive 2TD · 2 plays · 60 yds
Q1 11:26
Sire Gaines run for 2 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
+1.1
Q1 11:26
Timeout Boise State, clock 11:26
-1.7
UNLV · Drive 3PUNT · 7 plays · 28 yds
Q1 11:20
Anthony Colandrea run for 15 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 10:49
Jai'Den Thomas run for 3 yds to the UNLV 43
-0.3
Q1 10:12
Keyvone Lee run for 6 yds to the UNLV 49
-0.2
Q1 9:36
Keyvone Lee run for 5 yds to the BOIS 46 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q1 9:00
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Jaden Bradley
-0.4
Q1 8:53
Jai'Den Thomas run for no gain to the BOIS 46
0.0
Q1 8:10
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to JoJo Earle for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 47
0.0
BOIS · Drive 4PUNT · 1 play · -5 yds
Q1 7:41
Timeout Boise State, clock 07:41
+1.5
UNLV · Drive 3PUNT · 1 play · 28 yds
Q1 7:39
Cameron Brown punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Malik Sherrod at the BOIS 13
-1.3
BOIS · Drive 4PUNT · 5 plays · -5 yds
Q1 7:35
Dylan Riley run for 3 yds to the BOIS 16
+1.3
Q1 6:59
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Ben Ford
0.0
Q1 6:59
Timeout Boise State, clock 06:59
+0.4
Q1 6:55
Maddux Madsen sacked by Tunmise Adeleye for a loss of 8 yards to the BOIS 8
0.0
Q1 6:15
Oscar Doyle punt for 47 yds, fair catch by DeAngelo Irvin Jr. at the UNLV 45
-0.7
UNLV · Drive 5FG · 8 plays · 35 yds
Q1 6:05
Koy Moore run for no gain to the UNLV 45
-1.2
Q1 5:38
Anthony Colandrea run for 22 yds to the BOIS 33 for a 1ST down Boise State Penalty, Defensive Holding (A'Marion McCoy) to the BOIS 23 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q1 5:22
PENALTY NLV False Start (Makihele,Alani) 5 yards from BOI23 to BOI28. NO PLAY.
-0.5
Q1 4:56
Keyvone Lee run for no gain to the BOIS 28
-0.1
Q1 4:12
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Koy Moore for 13 yds to the BOIS 15
0.0
Q1 3:44
(03:44) PENALTY NLV False Start 5 yards from BOI15 to BOI20. NO PLAY.
-0.1
Q1 3:17
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Quandarius Keyes
0.0
Q1 3:10
Ramon Villela 38 yd FG GOOD
-6.8
BOIS · Drive 6TD · 5 plays · 75 yds
Q1 3:10
Caden Costa kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+1.5
Q1 2:50
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Demetric Whitlock Jr. for 14 yds to the BOIS 39 for a 1ST down
+2.3
Q1 2:27
Sire Gaines run for 7 yds to the BOIS 46
+0.3
Q1 1:45
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chris Marshall for 19 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 1:14
Cameron Bates run for 35 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
+9.4
UNLV · Drive 7PUNT · 5 plays · 9 yds
Q1 1:14
Colton Boomer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-0.3
Q1 1:09
Jai'Den Thomas run for 3 yds to the UNLV 28
-2.2
Q1 0:41
Jai'Den Thomas run for 6 yds to the UNLV 34
-0.2
Q1 0:00
Jai'Den Thomas run for no gain to the UNLV 34
0.0
Q2 14:51
Cameron Brown punt for 45 yds , Malik Sherrod returns for no gain to the BOIS 21
0.0
BOIS · Drive 8INT · 6 plays · 18 yds
Q2 14:45
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Chase Penry
+2.2
Q2 14:37
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chase Penry for 9 yds to the BOIS 30
0.0
Q2 14:10
Sire Gaines run for 6 yds to the BOIS 36 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 13:37
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Matt Lauter
+0.1
Q2 13:29
Sire Gaines run for 3 yds to the BOIS 39
+1.0
Q2 12:56
Maddux Madsen pass intercepted Laterrance Welch return for no gain to the BOIS 46
0.0
UNLV · Drive 9PUNT · 5 plays · 2 yds
Q2 12:46
Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd to the BOIS 45
-3.6
Q2 12:13
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 6 yds to the BOIS 39
0.0
Q2 11:49
Keyvone Lee run for no gain to the BOIS 39
-0.1
Q2 11:15
PENALTY NLV False Start (Thomas,Will) 5 yards from BOI39 to BOI44. NO PLAY.
+0.2
Q2 11:01
Cameron Brown punt for 30 yds
+0.9
UNLV · Drive 10TD · 5 plays · 16 yds
Q2 10:52
Anthony Colandrea run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 17
-0.4
Q2 10:16
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Aamaris Brown for 4 yds to the BOIS 13
0.0
Q2 9:40
Anthony Colandrea run for 10 yds to the BOIS 3 for a 1ST down Boise State Penalty, Personal Foul (A'Marion McCoy) to the BOIS 1 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 9:37
PENALTY BOI UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (McCoy,A'Marion), 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q2 9:33
Jai'Den Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Ramon Villela KICK)
-13.1
BOIS · Drive 11TD · 6 plays · 76 yds
Q2 9:27
Caden Costa kickoff for 62 yds , Malik Sherrod return for 21 yds to the BOIS 24
+2.2
Q2 9:17
Dylan Riley run for 65 yds to the UNLV 11 for a 1ST down
+4.7
Q2 9:00
Malik Sherrod run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 13
+0.9
Q2 8:17
Maddux Madsen run for 6 yds to the UNLV 7
-0.2
Q2 7:46
Timeout UNLV, clock 07:46
-1.8
Q2 7:40
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 7 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
+10.7
UNLV · Drive 12TD · 7 plays · 75 yds
Q2 7:40
Colton Boomer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q2 7:28
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to DeAngelo Irvin Jr. for 2 yds to the UNLV 27
-3.0
Q2 6:58
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to DeAngelo Irvin Jr. for 27 yds to the BOIS 46 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 6:35
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jaylon Glover for 5 yds to the BOIS 41
-0.2
Q2 6:20
Jaylon Glover run for 4 yds to the BOIS 37
-0.1
Q2 5:39
Anthony Colandrea run for 2 yds to the BOIS 35 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 5:09
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jaden Bradley for 35 yds for a TD (Ramon Villela KICK)
-12.6
BOIS · Drive 13TD · 3 plays · 75 yds
Q2 5:09
Caden Costa kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+2.1
Q2 4:54
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Cameron Bates for 26 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST down
+2.4
Q2 4:24
Dylan Riley run for 49 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
+11.7
UNLV · Drive 14PUNT · 7 plays · 29 yds
Q2 4:24
Colton Boomer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q2 4:11
Anthony Colandrea run for 27 yds to the BOIS 48 for a 1ST down
-3.1
Q2 3:39
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Jaden Mickey for a loss of 12 yards to the UNLV 40
-0.2
Q2 2:53
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Nick Elksnis for 6 yds to the UNLV 46
+1.0
Q2 2:27
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 8 yds to the BOIS 46
0.0
Q2 2:00
Timeout Boise State, clock 02:00
-1.2
Q2 1:52
Cameron Brown punt for 46 yds for a touchback
0.0
BOIS · Drive 15PUNT · 5 plays · 2 yds
Q2 1:50
Dylan Riley run for 2 yds to the BOIS 22
+2.1
Q2 1:27
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Dylan Riley
0.0
Q2 1:27
Timeout Boise State, clock 01:27
0.0
Q2 1:19
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Chris Marshall
0.0
Q2 1:13
Oscar Doyle punt for 45 yds, fair catch by DeAngelo Irvin Jr. at the UNLV 33
-0.2
UNLV · Drive 16TD · 7 plays · 67 yds
Q2 1:03
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to DeAngelo Irvin Jr. for 60 yds to the BOIS 7 for a 1ST down
-1.6
Q2 0:58
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Jaden Bradley
-0.7
Q2 0:52
Boise State Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Ty Benefield) to the BOIS 2 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 0:48
Timeout UNLV, clock 00:48
-0.6
Q2 0:48
Keyvone Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 3
0.0
Q2 0:48
PENALTY NLV False Start (Elksnis,Nick) 5 yards from BOI03 to BOI08. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q2 0:43
Anthony Colandrea run for 8 yds for a TD (Ramon Villela KICK)
-15.3
BOIS · Drive 17END OF HALF · 2 plays · 6 yds
Q2 0:43
Caden Costa kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+2.4
Q2 0:00
Dylan Riley run for 6 yds to the BOIS 31
+0.7
BOIS · Drive 18PUNT · 5 plays · 0 yds
Q3 14:52
Caden Costa kickoff for 65 yds , Malik Sherrod return for 40 yds to the BOIS 40
+1.2
Q3 14:44
Dylan Riley run for no gain to the BOIS 40
+5.0
Q3 14:09
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Malik Sherrod for no gain to the BOIS 40
0.0
Q3 13:49
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Matt Wagner
-0.4
Q3 13:43
Oscar Doyle punt for 44 yds, fair catch by DeAngelo Irvin Jr. at the UNLV 16
-0.4
UNLV · Drive 19PUNT · 6 plays · 1 yds
Q3 13:30
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to JoJo Earle for 9 yds to the UNLV 25
-4.5
Q3 12:56
Jai'Den Thomas run for 3 yds to the UNLV 28 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q3 12:22
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Daejon Reynolds
0.0
Q3 12:12
Jai'Den Thomas run for 7 yds to the UNLV 35
0.0
Q3 11:35
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jai'Den Thomas for 2 yds to the UNLV 37
-0.2
Q3 10:42
Cameron Brown punt for 51 yds for a 1ST down
+1.3
BOIS · Drive 20TD · 3 plays · 68 yds
Q3 10:30
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chris Marshall for 45 yds to the UNLV 23 for a 1ST down
+4.0
Q3 10:04
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Cameron Bates for 3 yds to the UNLV 20
+1.0
Q3 9:38
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Sire Gaines for 20 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
+10.0
UNLV · Drive 21PUNT · 10 plays · 25 yds
Q3 9:38
Colton Boomer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-0.2
Q3 9:31
Keyvone Lee run for 3 yds to the UNLV 28
-1.6
Q3 8:50
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to DeAngelo Irvin Jr. for 1 yd to the UNLV 29
0.0
Q3 8:00
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Koy Moore for 8 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 7:46
Keyvone Lee run for 8 yds to the UNLV 45
0.0
Q3 7:07
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Koy Moore for 8 yds to the BOIS 47 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 6:44
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Jaden Bradley
-0.2
Q3 6:33
Anthony Colandrea sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the UNLV 44
0.0
Q3 5:55
Anthony Colandrea run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line
+0.3
Q3 5:48
Cameron Brown punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Malik Sherrod at the BOIS 12
-0.2
BOIS · Drive 22TD · 6 plays · 88 yds
Q3 5:38
Dylan Riley run for 2 yds to the BOIS 14
+2.4
Q3 4:58
Maddux Madsen run for 25 yds to the BOIS 39 for a 1ST down
+0.2
Q3 4:05
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Cameron Bates for 25 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 3:39
Dylan Riley run for 4 yds to the UNLV 32
+0.1
Q3 2:56
Maddux Madsen run for no gain to the UNLV 32
+0.5
Q3 2:21
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chris Marshall for 32 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
+4.4
UNLV · Drive 23INT TD · 5 plays · 29 yds
Q3 2:21
Colton Boomer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q3 2:15
Jai'Den Thomas run for 1 yd to the UNLV 26
-1.3
Q3 1:36
Anthony Colandrea run for 28 yds to the BOIS 46 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 1:05
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to DeAngelo Irvin Jr.
0.0
Q3 0:54
Anthony Colandrea pass intercepted A'Marion McCoy return for 60 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
+1.5
UNLV · Drive 24DOWNS · 10 plays · 57 yds
Q3 0:54
Colton Boomer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+0.4
Q3 0:34
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jaylon Glover for 5 yds to the UNLV 30
-0.4
Q3 0:00
Jaylon Glover run for 13 yds to the UNLV 43 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 14:53
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Jaden Bradley
0.0
Q4 14:44
Jaylon Glover run for 37 yds to the BOIS 20 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 14:32
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Taeshaun Lyons
0.0
Q4 14:24
Jai'Den Thomas run for 4 yds to the BOIS 16
0.0
Q4 13:47
Anthony Colandrea run for a loss of 2 yards to the BOIS 18
0.0
Q4 13:03
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to JoJo Earle
0.0
Q4 13:03
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to JoJo Earle
0.0
BOIS · Drive 25TD · 14 plays · 82 yds
Q4 12:56
Dylan Riley run for 2 yds to the BOIS 20
+0.5
Q4 12:13
Dylan Riley run for 27 yds to the BOIS 47 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 11:29
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line
0.0
Q4 10:49
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the UNLV 48
0.0
Q4 10:05
Dylan Riley run for 3 yds to the UNLV 45
0.0
Q4 9:38
PENALTY BOI False Start (Wagner,Matt) 5 yards from NLV45 to NLV50. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q4 8:53
Oscar Doyle pass complete to Matt Wagner for 11 yds to the UNLV 39 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 8:15
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 6 yds to the UNLV 33
0.0
Q4 8:00
Dylan Riley run for 3 yds to the UNLV 30
0.0
Q4 7:18
Sire Gaines run for 5 yds to the UNLV 25 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 6:37
Dylan Riley run for 3 yds to the UNLV 22
0.0
Q4 5:56
Sire Gaines run for 1 yd to the UNLV 21
0.0
Q4 5:11
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 21 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
+0.3
Q4 5:11
PENALTY BOI UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 15 yards from BOI35 to BOI20. NO PLAY.
0.0
UNLV · Drive 26TD · 7 plays · 72 yds
Q4 5:03
Colton Boomer kickoff for 71 yds , Jaylon Glover return for 19 yds to the UNLV 28
0.0
Q4 5:01
(05:03) PENALTY NLV False Start 5 yards from NLV28 to NLV23. NO PLAY.
-0.5
Q4 4:45
Jaylon Glover run for 4 yds to the UNLV 27
0.0
Q4 4:26
Jaylon Glover run for 11 yds to the UNLV 38 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 3:45
Jaylon Glover run for 43 yds to the BOIS 19 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 3:13
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the BOIS 17
0.0
Q4 2:45
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Troy Omeire for 17 yds for a TD (Ramon Villela KICK)
-0.4
BOIS · Drive 27END OF GAME · 6 plays · 8 yds
Q4 2:44
Caden Costa kickoff for 18 yds
0.0
Q4 2:32
Jambres Dubar run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line
+0.6
Q4 2:00
Timeout Boise State, clock 02:00
-0.1
Q4 1:53
Jambres Dubar run for 7 yds to the UNLV 43 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 1:11
(01:17) Kneel down by Boise State at NLV44 for loss of 1 yard.
0.0
Q4 0:00
(00:28) Kneel down by Boise State at NLV45 for loss of 1 yard.
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:43
Anthony Colandrea run for 8 yds for a TD (Ramon Villela KICK)
-15.3
TD · Q2 9:33
Jai'Den Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Ramon Villela KICK)
-13.1
TD · Q2 5:09
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jaden Bradley for 35 yds for a TD (Ramon Villela KICK)
-12.6
YardLine · model v2Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com