2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · War Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreSJSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:13 · Trent Carrizosa punt for 60 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 10:39: Kaden Anderson pass complete to Michael Fitzgerald for 35 yds for a TD (Erik Sandvik KICK) — WYO win probability +6.4 pts (now 49%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:19: Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 2 yds for a TD (Mathias Brown KICK) — SJSU win probability +7.5 pts (now 65%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:59: Xavier Ward pass intercepted Brayden Johnson return for 65 yds for a TD (Erik Sandvik KICK) — WYO win probability +12.8 pts (now 21%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:44: Kaden Anderson pass complete to Charlie Coenen for 45 yds for a TD (Erik Sandvik KICK) — WYO win probability +36.2 pts (now 63%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:40: Terron Kellman run for 28 yds for a TD (Erik Sandvik KICK) — WYO win probability +38.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 7 of 8SJSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
- Q1 10:01WYO 4th & 8 at WYO 48, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snapGo for it46.7%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.8%average punt
- Q1 8:52SJSU 4th & 6 at SJSU 24, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snapGo for it53.3%−0.238% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.5%average punt
- Q1 6:21WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 32, down 7Close callPunted · 45.7% before the snapGo for it46.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.7%−0.3average punt
- Q2 14:10SJSU 4th & 1 at WYO 7, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call57.0%70% to convertField goal55.7%−1.391% to makePunt51.9%−5.0average punt
- Q2 8:20WYO 4th & 7 at WYO 42, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snapGo for it33.8%−0.537% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.3%average punt
- Q2 7:24SJSU 4th & 8 at SJSU 17, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snapGo for it65.3%−1.432% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.7%average punt
- Q2 2:12WYO 4th & 2 at SJSU 18, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call30.3%56% to convertField goal29.7%−0.779% to makePunt26.3%−4.0average punt
- Q2 1:50SJSU 4th & 2 at SJSU 25, up 14Close callPunted · 71.6% before the snapGo for it71.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.8%−0.9average punt
- Q2 0:51WYO 4th & 5 at WYO 47, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snapGo for it28.6%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.7%average punt
- Q2 0:29SJSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 25, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snapGo for it71.5%−0.571% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.0%average punt
- Q3 12:57WYO 4th & 7 at WYO 28, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snapGo for it25.0%−0.836% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.8%average punt
- Q3 10:54SJSU 4th & 4 at SJSU 38, up 14Close callPunted · 77.3% before the snapGo for it77.7%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.5%−0.3average punt
- Q3 2:50SJSU 4th & 13 at WYO 35, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.5% before the snapGo for it84.3%−1.121% to convertField goalTheir call85.4%45% to makePunt84.3%−1.1average punt
- Q3 0:59WYO 4th & 2 at WYO 43, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call17.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt17.0%−0.6average punt
- Q4 14:43SJSU 4th & 8 at WYO 29, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.7% before the snapGo for it86.0%−0.634% to convertField goalTheir call86.5%58% to makePunt80.1%−6.4average punt
- Q4 9:59SJSU 4th & 2 at WYO 36, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.1%57% to convertField goal90.3%−1.842% to makePunt90.1%−2.0average punt
- Q4 4:42SJSU 4th & 9 at SJSU 47, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.9% before the snapGo for it84.2%−0.832% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.0%average punt
- Q4 4:12WYO 4th & 5 at midfield, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call19.5%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt16.2%−3.3average punt
- Q4 1:13SJSU 4th & 5 at SJSU 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snapGo for it43.4%−0.941% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.3%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4SJSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 12:39SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.4%97% to makeGo for two52.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:05SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.7%97% to makeGo for two52.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:10SJSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.7%97% to makeGo for two60.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:39WYO Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call42.1%97% to makeGo for two42.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:19SJSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.7%97% to makeGo for two62.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:59WYO Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call20.6%97% to makeGo for two20.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:44WYO Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.1%97% to makeGo for two46.8%−2.245% to convert
- Q4 0:40WYO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.0%97% to makeGo for two87.3%−1.845% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSJSUDrive 1TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:2148% → 49%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+17
52.1%
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 17 yds to the SJSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
52.1%
Walker Eget pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 9 yds to the WYO 47Similar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
51.3%
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 43 yds for a TD (Mathias Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 2PUNT9 plays · 23 yds · 2:3352% → 51%
SJSUDrive 3PUNT RETURN TD4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0949% → 47%
Q1 8:52
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+73
53.3%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 49 yds , Deion DeBlanc returns for 73 yds for a TD (Erik Sandvik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 4TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4747% → 50%
WYODrive 5PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3850% → 50%
Q1 7:59
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+5
50.1%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Eric Richardson for 5 yds to the WYO 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 6TD14 plays · 80 yds · 7:1150% → 60%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
49.6%
Walker Eget pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 7 yds to the SJSU 27Similar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+15
49.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Eget,Walker pass incomplete deep right to Scudero,Danny thrown to WYO48 PENALTY WYO Pass Interference 15 yards from SJS26 to SJS41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
48.9%
Walker Eget pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 13 yds to the WYO 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+19
48.7%
Walker Eget pass complete to Leland Smith for 19 yds to the WYO 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
48.6%
Walker Eget pass complete to Kyri Shoels for a loss of 1 yard to the WYO 29Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+6
48.7%
Walker Eget pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 6 yds to the WYO 23Similar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+7
48.8%
Walker Eget pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 7 yds to the WYO 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+7
40.0%
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 7 yds for a TD (Mathias Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 7TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:3141% → 49%
Q2 14:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
41.0%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Jaylen Sargent for 7 yds to the WYO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
41.1%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for 5 yds to the WYO 41Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+10
41.8%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for 10 yds to the SJSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
48.8%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Michael Fitzgerald for 35 yds for a TD (Erik Sandvik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8TD3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 10:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
34.9%
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 2 yds for a TD (Mathias Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 9PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 1:5937% → 36%
SJSUDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5665% → 65%
Q2 7:24
4TH & 8
OWN 17
0
35.2%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Deion DeBlanc at the WYO 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 11DOWNS14 plays · 48 yds · 5:1235% → 32%
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
34.7%
Kaden Anderson sacked by Vili Taufatofua for a loss of 1 yard to the WYO 34Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+10
34.4%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Evan Svoboda for 10 yds to the WYO 44Similar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+15
34.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Anderson,Kaden pass incomplete deep middle to Fitzgerald,Michael thrown to SJS20 PENALTY SJS Pass Interference (Thomas,Jaylen) 15 yards from WYO46 to SJS39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+6
36.0%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for 6 yds to the SJSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 0:2270% → 70%
WYODrive 13PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 0:5924% → 24%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
24.1%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Evan Svoboda for 9 yds to the WYO 41Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 1
OWN 41
-1
25.2%
Kaden Anderson sacked by Vili Taufatofua for a loss of 1 yard to the WYO 42 Kaden Anderson fumbled, recovered by WYO Rex Johnsen , return for 0 yards for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
25.3%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Evan Svoboda for 2 yds to the WYO 44Similar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
24.4%
Bart Edmiston punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Thomas at the SJSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 0:2272% → 77%
WYODrive 15END OF HALF6 plays · 53 yds · 0:2926% → 25%
WYODrive 16PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 2:0329% → 27%
SJSUDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 2:0374% → 76%
SJSUDrive 18FUMBLE4 plays · -18 yds · 1:4778% → 80%
Q3 9:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
-14
19.9%
Walker Eget sacked by Tyce Westland for a loss of 14 yards to the WYO 43 Walker Eget fumbled, recovered by WYO Chisom Ifeanyi , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 19INT2 plays · 4 yds · 0:4126% → 25%
SJSUDrive 20MISSED FG14 plays · 31 yds · 5:3680% → 84%
Q3 8:26
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+10
20.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Ward,Xavier pass incomplete deep right to Scudero,Danny thrown to WYO28 PENALTY WYO Holding 10 yards from SJS37 to SJS47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
19.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Ward,Xavier pass incomplete short left to Smith,Leland thrown to WYO50 PENALTY SJS Ineligible Downfield on Pass 5 yards from SJS47 to SJS42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
19.0%
Xavier Ward pass complete to Grant Norberg for 4 yds to the WYO 38Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+6
18.9%
Xavier Ward pass complete to Sir Autry for 6 yds to the WYO 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
18.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Ward,Xavier rush left for 8 yards gain to the WYO24 (Johnson,Brayden) PENALTY SJS Holding 10 yards from WYO32 to WYO42. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 21DOWNS6 plays · 9 yds · 1:5119% → 18%
Q3 2:50
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-10
19.6%
No Huddle Harris,Samuel rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WYO41 (Pollard,Jordan; Latu,Taniela) PENALTY WYO Holding 10 yards from WYO40 to WYO30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+13
17.4%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Jackson Holman for 13 yds to the WYO 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 22MISSED FG5 plays · 15 yds · 1:1687% → 86%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 23INT4 plays · 22 yds · 1:2816% → 17%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
16.0%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Samuel Harris for 6 yds to the WYO 35Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+7
16.6%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Deion DeBlanc for 7 yds to the WYO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 1
OPP 49
0
17.4%
Kaden Anderson pass intercepted Taniela Latu return for no gain to the SJSU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 24INT TD7 plays · 20 yds · 3:1690% → 79%
Q4 13:15
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+7
10.2%
Tama Amisone pass complete to Leland Smith for 7 yds to the WYO 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+5
10.2%
Xavier Ward pass complete to Danny Scudero for 5 yds to the WYO 36Similar
Q4 9:59
4TH & 2
OPP 36
-65
20.7%
Xavier Ward pass intercepted Brayden Johnson return for 65 yds for a TD (Erik Sandvik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 25PUNT14 plays · 27 yds · 5:1279% → 86%
Q4 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
21.8%
Tama Amisone pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 5 yds to the SJSU 25Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+9
21.3%
Tama Amisone pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 9 yds to the SJSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
20.0%
Tama Amisone pass complete to Danny Scudero for 5 yds to the SJSU 39Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+4
18.7%
Tama Amisone pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 4 yds to the SJSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 11
OWN 45
0
18.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Amisone,Tama pass incomplete short right to Coleman,Matthew thrown to SJS45 QB hurried by Johnson,Brayden PENALTY SJS Intentional Grounding. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+15
19.0%
Wyoming Penalty, Personal Foul (Ben Florentine) to the SJSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
18.1%
San José State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jahari Johnson) declinedSimilar
Q4 4:42
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
14.1%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Charlie Coenen at the WYO 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 26TD9 plays · 85 yds · 1:5821% → 63%
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
21.0%
Shotgun Anderson,Kaden pass incomplete deep middle to Durr,Chris thrown to WYO35 PENALTY SJS Pass Interference 15 yards from WYO15 to WYO30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
22.1%
No Huddle Anderson,Kaden pass complete short right to Harris,Samuel caught at WYO29, for 1 yard loss to the WYO29 (Revis,Isiah) PENALTY SJS Roughing The Passer 15 yards from WYO30 to WYO45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
24.5%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Deion DeBlanc for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:12
4TH & 5
50
+5
22.6%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Deion DeBlanc for 5 yds to the SJSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+45
63.4%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Charlie Coenen for 45 yds for a TD (Erik Sandvik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 27PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 1:3151% → 52%
WYODrive 28TD6 plays · 80 yds · 0:3355% → 98%
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+52
54.7%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Samuel Harris for 52 yds to the SJSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 29END OF GAME10 plays · 30 yds · 0:4012% → 16%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
88.1%
Walker Eget pass complete to Kyri Shoels for 8 yds to the SJSU 33Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
87.1%
Walker Eget pass complete to Leland Smith for 9 yds to the SJSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
86.8%
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 9 yds to the SJSU 46Similar
Q4 0:14
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+9
85.2%
Walker Eget pass complete to Kyri Shoels for 9 yds to the WYO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:40
Terron Kellman run for 28 yds for a TD (Erik Sandvik KICK)
+38.3
TD · Q4 2:44
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Charlie Coenen for 45 yds for a TD (Erik Sandvik KICK)
+36.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+15.9