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FRES

Fresno State 21 at Colorado State 49

CSU
2025 · Week 7 · Oct 10, 2025 · Canvas Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:51 · Bryan Hansen punt for 55 yds , Jordan Malau'ulu returns for 7 yds to the FRES 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 131Home team on offense+21.1Score differential+8.9Pregame prior−2.8Garbage-time factor+11.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.8Blowout margin−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:11: Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Rocky Beers for 4 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — CSU win probability +11.5 pts (now 70%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:42: E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 23 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +12.1 pts (now 43%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:08: Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Rocky Beers for 20 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — CSU win probability +19.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:20: E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 26 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +12.2 pts (now 17%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:51: E.J. Warner pass complete to Rayshon Luke for 23 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +13.5 pts (now 21%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 9FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 11:22FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:36FRES 4th & 3 at CSU 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    49.9%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 7:57CSU 4th & 1 at FRES 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    59.0%−3.4
    47% to make
    Punt
    58.0%−4.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:15CSU 4th & 14 at CSU 21, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%−3.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.8%
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:29CSU 4th & 13 at CSU 22, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%−2.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:33FRES 4th & 26 at FRES 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−2.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:26CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 40, up 21
    Close callPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:26CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 40, up 21
    Close callPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:12CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:18FRES 4th & 6 at CSU 19, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.8%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    15.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    7.5%−7.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:51CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 26, up 14
    Close callPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.5%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:51CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 26, up 14
    Close callPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.5%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:34FRES 4th & 16 at CSU 39, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.2%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    10.1%
    36% to make
    Punt
    9.7%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:19FRES 4th & 13 at CSU 43, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%
    28% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:00FRES 4th & 3 at CSU 21, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.4
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−1.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:33CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 29, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:59CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:13CSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:11CSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:42FRES Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:08CSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 5:58CSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:20FRES Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:51FRES Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:15CSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:12CSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:3161% → 60%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
38.9%
Bryson Donelson run for 3 yds to the FRES 28Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+14
39.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jayon Farrar for 14 yds to the FRES 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
39.2%
Rayshon Luke run for 7 yds to the FRES 49Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 3
OWN 49
-10
39.3%
(13:13) Shotgun Warner,E.J. pass complete short left to Brown,Jordan caught at FRESNO46, for 7 yards to the CSU44 (Myers,Dagan) PENALTY FRESNO Holding (Anderson III,Richie) 10 yards from FRESNO49 to FRESNO39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 13
OWN 39
-7
39.6%
E.J. Warner sacked by Owen Long for a loss of 7 yards to the FRES 32Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 20
OWN 32
+15
40.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Kamron Beachem for 15 yds to the FRES 47Similar
Q1 11:22
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
40.0%
Nick Verdugo punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Dagan Myers at the CSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2TD
3 plays · 86 yds · 1:1840% → 43%
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+10
40.1%
Jalen Dupree run for 10 yds to the CSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
40.4%
Jackson Brousseau run for 3 yds to the CSU 27Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+73
42.6%
Justin Marshall run for 73 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3INT
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:4258% → 56%
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
42.4%
Bryson Donelson run for 4 yds to the FRES 29Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
42.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 2 yds to the FRES 31Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+23
43.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Harold Duvall for 23 yds to the CSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
43.1%
Bryson Donelson run for 2 yds to the CSU 44Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
43.5%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Jake TarwaterSimilar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 8
OPP 44
-27
43.8%
E.J. Warner pass intercepted Jace Bellah return for 27 yds to the CSU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4TD
5 plays · 53 yds · 1:5045% → 52%
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
45.3%
Jackson Brousseau run for 1 yd to the CSU 48Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+4
45.7%
Justin Marshall run for 4 yds to the FRES 48Similar
Q1 5:51
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+19
46.1%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Armani Winfield for 19 yds to the FRES 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
46.9%
Jackson Brousseau pass incomplete to Armani WinfieldSimilar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+29
51.7%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Javion Kinnard for 29 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5DOWNS
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:2850% → 48%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
49.8%
Brandon Ramirez run for 19 yds to the FRES 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
50.0%
Brandon Ramirez run for 5 yds to the FRES 49Similar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+4
50.2%
Bryson Donelson run for 4 yds to the CSU 47Similar
Q1 3:06
3RD & 1
OPP 47
-2
51.1%
Brandon Ramirez run for a loss of 2 yards to the CSU 49Similar
Q1 2:36
4TH & 3
OPP 49
+1
51.8%
Jake Tarwater run for 1 yd to the CSU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6TD
11 plays · 52 yds · 3:2055% → 70%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
54.7%
Fresno State Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jomarion Briggs) to the FRES 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
55.3%
Jackson Brousseau pass incomplete to Armani WinfieldSimilar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+6
54.3%
Lloyd Avant run for 6 yds to the FRES 27Similar
Q1 1:19
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+10
54.8%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Tommy Maher for 10 yds to the FRES 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
55.9%
Lloyd Avant run for 5 yds to the FRES 12Similar
Q1 0:09
2ND & 5
OPP 12
0
57.9%
Jackson Brousseau pass incomplete to Jordan RossSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+8
57.6%
Lloyd Avant run for 8 yds to the FRES 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
58.2%
Jalen Dupree run for no gain to the FRES 4Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
69.7%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Rocky Beers for 4 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 2:1632% → 43%
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
68.1%
Bryson Donelson run for 3 yds to the FRES 27Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+35
69.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 20 yds to the CSU 47 for a 1ST down Colorado State Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Chance Harrison) to the CSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
68.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 6 yds to the CSU 32Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+9
68.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jake Tarwater for 9 yds to the CSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
56.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 23 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:2261% → 84%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
60.8%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Javion Kinnard for 2 yds to the CSU 27Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
61.3%
Javion Kinnard run for 9 yds to the CSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+21
62.7%
Justin Marshall run for 11 yds to the FRES 47 for a 1ST down Fresno State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Deijon Laffitte) to the FRES 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
63.9%
Jackson Brousseau run for 5 yds to the FRES 38Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+4
64.5%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Tay Lanier for 4 yds to the FRES 34Similar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 1
OPP 34
0
64.6%
Lloyd Avant run for no gain to the FRES 34Similar
Q2 7:57
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+3
63.5%
Lloyd Avant run for 3 yds to the FRES 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
65.5%
Jackson Brousseau pass incomplete to Rocky BeersSimilar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+8
65.5%
Lloyd Avant run for 8 yds to the FRES 23Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 2
OPP 23
-2
65.3%
Lloyd Avant run for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 25Similar
Q2 6:34
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+5
64.8%
PENALTY FRESNO Offside (Jordan Jr.,Michael) 5 yards from FRESNO25 to FRESNO20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
84.1%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Rocky Beers for 20 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9FUMBLE RETURN TD
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+36
92.4%
Paul Tangelo 36 Yd Fumble Return (Isaiah Hankins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:258% → 17%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.5%
Bryson Donelson run for no gain to the FRES 25Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
93.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jayon Farrar for 14 yds to the FRES 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
93.2%
Rayshon Luke run for 8 yds to the FRES 47Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 2
OWN 47
-5
94.6%
PENALTY FRESNO False Start 5 yards from FRESNO47 to FRESNO42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+8
93.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
50
0
93.7%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Josiah FreemanSimilar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 10
50
+10
94.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Brown for 10 yds to the CSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
94.3%
Rayshon Luke run for 4 yds to the CSU 36Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+10
94.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 10 yds to the CSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
94.7%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Richie Anderson IIISimilar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
94.9%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Josiah FreemanSimilar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+26
82.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 26 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 1:0088% → 88%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
87.9%
Justin Marshall run for 3 yds to the CSU 28Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-4
88.9%
Jackson Brousseau sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the CSU 24Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-3
88.7%
Lloyd Avant run for a loss of 3 yards to the CSU 21Similar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
88.2%
Bryan Hansen punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0410% → 13%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
90.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Brown for 9 yds to the FRES 46Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 46
-5
86.8%
PENALTY FRESNO False Start (Freeman,Josiah) 5 yards from FRESNO46 to FRESNO41. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2088% → 88%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
88.0%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Armani Winfield for 5 yds to the CSU 30Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-8
88.8%
Justin Marshall run for a loss of 8 yards to the CSU 22Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
88.4%
Jackson Brousseau pass incomplete to Justin MarshallSimilar
Q3 13:29
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+10
87.9%
Bryan Hansen punt for 54 yds , Jordan Malau'ulu returns for 10 yds to the FRES 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:4413% → 10%
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
87.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 12 yds to the FRES 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-6
87.9%
E.J. Warner sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the FRES 40Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 16
OWN 40
0
89.3%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Jahlil McClainSimilar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 16
OWN 40
-10
89.5%
(12:03) Shotgun Warner,E.J. pass complete short right to Freeman,Josiah caught at CSU45, for 15 yards to the CSU45 (Rogers,Jahari) PENALTY FRESNO Holding (Polendo,Julian) 10 yards from FRESNO40 to FRESNO30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 26
OWN 30
0
89.7%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Jordan BrownSimilar
Q3 11:33
4TH & 26
OWN 30
0
90.0%
Nick Verdugo punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0191% → 92%
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
90.9%
Lloyd Avant run for 2 yds to the CSU 33Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+3
91.3%
Lloyd Avant run for 3 yds to the CSU 36Similar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+4
92.0%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Lloyd Avant for 4 yds to the CSU 40Similar
Q3 9:26
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
91.9%
Bryan Hansen punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jordan Malau'ulu at the FRES 12Similar
Q3 9:26
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
91.9%
Bryan Hansen punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jordan Malau'ulu at the FRES 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 3:299% → 23%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
91.5%
Brandon Ramirez run for 4 yds to the FRES 31Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
91.7%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Richie Anderson IIISimilar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+15
91.9%
PENALTY CSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 15 yards from FRESNO31 to FRESNO46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
91.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 6 yds to the CSU 48Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+12
91.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jayon Farrar for 12 yds to the CSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
92.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 6 yds to the CSU 30Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+4
91.8%
Rayshon Luke run for 14 yds to the CSU 16 for a 1ST down Fresno State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kamron Beachem) to the CSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
91.9%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Harold DuvallSimilar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
92.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Brown for 3 yds to the CSU 23Similar
Q3 5:51
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+23
78.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Rayshon Luke for 23 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
Q3 5:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-15
77.0%
Warner,E.J. pass attempt failed PENALTY FRESNO Face Mask (Penright,Toreon) 15 yards from CSU03 to CSU18. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3684% → 85%
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.4%
Jackson Brousseau pass incomplete to Justin MarshallSimilar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
84.4%
Lloyd Avant run for 3 yds to the CSU 28Similar
Q3 5:01
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
84.7%
Lloyd Avant run for 4 yds to the CSU 32Similar
Q3 4:12
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+4
85.3%
Bryan Hansen punt for 42 yds , Jordan Malau'ulu returns for 4 yds to the FRES 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:4617% → 15%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
83.1%
Brandon Ramirez run for 7 yds to the FRES 37Similar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+25
82.5%
Brandon Ramirez run for 10 yds to the CSU 47 for a 1ST down Colorado State Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Alton Tarber IV) to the CSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
82.0%
PENALTY FRESNO False Start (Walton,Brayden) 5 yards from CSU38 to CSU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+15
83.1%
Colorado State Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the CSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
81.1%
E.J. Warner sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 24Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+5
82.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 5 yds to the CSU 19Similar
Q3 1:27
3RD & 6
OPP 19
0
83.5%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Brandon RamirezSimilar
Q3 1:18
4TH & 6
OPP 19
0
85.0%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Josiah FreemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:2490% → 89%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
90.4%
Justin Marshall run for 7 yds to the CSU 26Similar
Q3 0:38
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+2
90.9%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Rocky Beers for 2 yds to the CSU 28Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 28
-2
90.4%
Lloyd Avant run for a loss of 2 yards to the CSU 26Similar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 3
OWN 26
+8
89.4%
Bryan Hansen punt for 55 yds , Jordan Malau'ulu returns for 8 yds to the FRES 27Similar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 3
OWN 26
+7
89.4%
Bryan Hansen punt for 55 yds , Jordan Malau'ulu returns for 7 yds to the FRES 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 45 yds · 3:0713% → 11%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
87.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 8 yds to the FRES 24Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+10
86.3%
Bryson Donelson run for 10 yds to the FRES 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+33
87.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jahlil McClain for 33 yds to the CSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
85.1%
Brandon Ramirez run for a loss of 2 yards to the CSU 35Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 12
OPP 35
-4
85.7%
E.J. Warner sacked by Paul Tangelo for a loss of 4 yards to the CSU 39Similar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 16
OPP 39
0
89.0%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Josiah FreemanSimilar
Q4 11:34
4TH & 16
OPP 39
0
89.5%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Jahlil McClainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 2:1094% → 99%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
93.5%
Justin Marshall run for 3 yds to the CSU 42Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+2
94.0%
Lloyd Avant run for 2 yds to the CSU 44Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+41
94.2%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Javion Kinnard for 41 yds to the FRES 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
94.9%
Lloyd Avant run for 3 yds to the FRES 12Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+12
99.0%
Lloyd Avant run for 12 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22INT
19 plays · 69 yds · 4:352% → 1%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 5 yds to the FRES 30Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
98.4%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Rayshon LukeSimilar
Q4 8:38
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
98.4%
E.J. Warner run for 6 yds to the FRES 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+24
98.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 24 yds to the CSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-3
98.5%
Bryson Donelson run for a loss of 3 yards to the CSU 43Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 13
OPP 43
0
98.6%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Jahlil McClainSimilar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 13
OPP 43
0
98.7%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Jordan Malau'uluSimilar
Q4 7:19
4TH & 13
OPP 43
0
98.8%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Kamron BeachemSimilar
Q4 7:19
4TH & 13
OPP 43
+15
98.8%
(07:25) Shotgun Warner,E.J. pass incomplete short right to Beachem,Kamron thrown to CSU25 PENALTY CSU Pass Interference (Long,Owen) 15 yards from CSU43 to CSU28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
98.3%
E.J. Warner sacked by Lemondre Joe for a loss of 3 yards to the CSU 31Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 13
OPP 31
+10
98.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 10 yds to the CSU 21Similar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 3
OPP 21
0
98.9%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Josiah FreemanSimilar
Q4 6:00
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+5
98.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jahlil McClain for 5 yds to the CSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
98.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jahlil McClain for 9 yds to the CSU 7Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+6
98.8%
E.J. Warner run for 6 yds to the CSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
98.9%
(04:51) PENALTY FRESNO False Start (Tarwater,Jake) 5 yards from CSU01 to CSU06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.0%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Josiah FreemanSimilar
Q4 4:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.0%
E.J. Warner pass intercepted, touchback. CJ Blocker return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:5799% → 100%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
99.4%
PENALTY CSU False Start (Karas,Aaron) 5 yards from CSU20 to CSU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 15
OWN 15
-1
99.4%
Jalen Dupree run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 14Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+14
99.5%
Jalen Dupree run for 14 yds to the CSU 28Similar
Q4 3:22
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
99.7%
Jalen Dupree run for 1 yd to the CSU 29Similar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
99.7%
Bryan Hansen punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24INT
3 plays · -12 yds · 0:251% → 1%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
99.4%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Jahlil McClainSimilar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-12
99.4%
(02:28) Shotgun Warner,E.J. pass complete short middle to Anderson III,Richie caught at FRESNO35, for 17 yards to the FRESNO41 (Vincent,Jett) PENALTY FRESNO Pass Interference (Anderson III,Richie) 12 yards from FRESNO24 to FRESNO12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 22
OWN 12
-26
99.4%
E.J. Warner pass intercepted Jace Bellah return for 26 yds to the FRES 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 25TD
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:41100% → 100%
Q4 1:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
99.7%
Jalen Dupree run for 3 yds to the FRES 4Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
100.0%
Jalen Dupree run for 4 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · 14 yds · 1:030% → 0%
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Johnathan Arceneaux run for 5 yds to the FRES 30Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
99.9%
Elijah Gilliam run for 9 yds to the FRES 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:08
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Rocky Beers for 20 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
+19.3
TD · Q3 5:51
E.J. Warner pass complete to Rayshon Luke for 23 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
-13.5
TD · Q2 1:20
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 26 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
-12.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com