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UNM

New Mexico 25 at Boise State 41

BOIS
2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreUNM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:22 · Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ben Ford for 7 yds to the UNM 39 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 89Pregame prior+25.1Home team on offense+3.8Score differential+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:47: Damon Bankston 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Luke Drzewiecki Kick) — UNM win probability +2.6 pts (now 13%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:20: Ben Ford 6 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Colton Boomer Kick) — BOIS win probability +6.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:22: Sire Gaines 4 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick) — BOIS win probability +10.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:31: Troy Grizzle 10 Yd pass from Oscar Doyle (Colton Boomer Kick) — BOIS win probability +4.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:16: Keagan Johnson 4 Yd pass from James Laubstein (James Laubstein Run for Two-Point Conversion) — UNM win probability +2.6 pts (now 3%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 9 of 10UNM made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:32BOIS 4th & 1 at UNM 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    83.4%−0.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    82.9%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:19BOIS 4th & 6 at UNM 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    82.5%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:37UNM 4th & 7 at UNM 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:49BOIS 4th & 1 at BOIS 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    81.2%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:20BOIS 4th & 13 at BOIS 16, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:18BOIS 4th & 1 at UNM 12, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    69.6%−1.8
    86% to make
    Punt
    64.7%−6.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:06UNM 4th & 6 at UNM 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:06UNM 4th & 6 at UNM 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:06UNM 4th & 6 at UNM 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:22BOIS 4th & 3 at UNM 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    75.7%−1.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    76.1%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:10BOIS 4th & 18 at UNM 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:22BOIS 4th & 15 at UNM 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%−1.7
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    72.9%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:21UNM 4th & 8 at BOIS 11, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    13.5%−9.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:49UNM 4th & 4 at UNM 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.3%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:49UNM 4th & 4 at UNM 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.3%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:31BOIS 4th & 8 at UNM 10, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.4%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    90.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    86.3%−4.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:14BOIS 4th & 2 at UNM 25, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    97.4%−0.3
    66% to make
    Punt
    96.0%−1.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:59UNM 4th & 4 at UNM 42, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:46UNM 4th & 4 at BOIS 26, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UNM made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 0:00BOIS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:47UNM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:20BOIS Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:22BOIS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:31BOIS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:14BOIS Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:16UNM Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    1.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1FUMBLE
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:129% → 9%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
91.0%
PENALTY UNM Delay Of Game 5 yards from UNM25 to UNM20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:48
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-2
90.9%
Jack Layne sacked by Jayden Virgin-Morgan for a loss of 2 yards to the UNM 18 Jack Layne fumbled, recovered by BOIS Marco Notarainni , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2FG
8 plays · 12 yds · 3:2591% → 90%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
90.9%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Malik SherrodSimilar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+5
90.9%
Dylan Riley run for 5 yds to the UNM 13Similar
Q1 14:03
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+4
90.7%
Dylan Riley run for 4 yds to the UNM 9Similar
Q1 13:32
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+2
90.6%
Sire Gaines run for 2 yds to the UNM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
90.5%
Sire Gaines run for 1 yd to the UNM 6Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
90.3%
Maddux Madsen run for no gain to the UNM 6Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
90.1%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Matt WagnerSimilar
Q1 11:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
90.2%
Colton Boomer 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3INT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:3810% → 10%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
90.1%
Jack Layne pass complete to Dorian Thomas for 10 yds to the UNM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
89.9%
Damon Bankston run for 3 yds to the UNM 38Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
89.7%
Damon Bankston run for 2 yds to the UNM 40Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+4
89.6%
Jack Layne pass intercepted A'Marion McCoy return for a loss of 4 yards to the BOIS 37Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+4
89.6%
Jack Layne pass intercepted A'Marion McCoy return for a loss of 4 yards to the BOIS 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4DOWNS
6 plays · 31 yds · 2:0290% → 89%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
89.7%
Sire Gaines run for 4 yds to the BOIS 41Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+27
89.7%
Sire Gaines run for 12 yds to the UNM 47 for a 1ST down New Mexico Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Drew Speech) to the UNM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
89.7%
Sire Gaines run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNM 33Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 11
OPP 33
0
89.7%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Chris MarshallSimilar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 11
OPP 33
+6
89.4%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chris Marshall for 6 yds to the UNM 27Similar
Q1 7:28
4TH & 5
OPP 27
0
89.2%
Boise State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4311% → 11%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
89.1%
Scottre Humphrey run for 3 yds to the UNM 35Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
88.9%
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Keagan JohnsonSimilar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
89.0%
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Keagan JohnsonSimilar
Q1 6:37
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
89.2%
Daniel Hughes punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Malik Sherrod at the BOIS 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6TD
14 plays · 74 yds · 6:3289% → 89%
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
88.8%
Malik Sherrod run for 4 yds to the BOIS 30Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 6
OWN 30
-1
88.7%
Malik Sherrod run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 29Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+6
88.3%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 6 yds to the BOIS 35Similar
Q1 4:49
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+2
88.2%
Maddux Madsen run for 2 yds to the BOIS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
88.3%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 4 yds to the BOIS 41Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+2
88.5%
Sire Gaines run for 2 yds to the BOIS 43Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+4
88.1%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Sire Gaines for 4 yds to the BOIS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+23
88.0%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chris Marshall for 23 yds to the UNM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
88.1%
Dylan Riley run for 4 yds to the UNM 26Similar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+17
87.9%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chris Marshall for 7 yds to the UNM 19 for a 1ST down New Mexico Penalty, Face Mask (10 yards) (Frankie Edwards III) to the UNM 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
87.8%
Malik Sherrod run for 5 yds to the UNM 4Similar
Q1 0:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
87.7%
Sire Gaines run for 2 yds to the UNM 2Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
89.3%
Sire Gaines run for 2 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:1885% → 83%
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
84.5%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Chris MarshallSimilar
Q2 14:31
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-8
84.4%
Maddux Madsen sacked by Jalen McIver for a loss of 8 yards to the BOIS 11Similar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 18
OWN 11
+5
83.6%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 5 yds to the BOIS 16Similar
Q2 13:20
4TH & 13
OWN 16
0
83.1%
Oscar Doyle punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Shawn Miller at the UNM 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 8TD
11 plays · 58 yds · 2:4617% → 20%
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
83.2%
Damon Bankston run for 4 yds to the UNM 46Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
82.6%
D.J. McKinney pass incomplete to Jack LayneSimilar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
82.8%
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Keagan JohnsonSimilar
Q2 12:46
4TH & 6
OWN 46
+15
83.5%
PENALTY BSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Virgin-Morgan,Jayden) 15 yards from UNM46 to BSU39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
82.4%
D.J. McKinney run for 12 yds to the BOIS 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
81.6%
D.J. McKinney run for 2 yds to the BOIS 25Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+24
81.2%
Jack Layne pass complete to Dorian Thomas for 24 yds to the BOIS 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
80.9%
Deshaun Buchanan run for no gain to the BOIS 1Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.8%
Dorian Thomas 1 Yd pass from Jack Layne (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 7:0381% → 85%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
81.4%
Sire Gaines run for 9 yds to the BOIS 34Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
81.7%
Sire Gaines run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 33Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
80.6%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ben Ford for 5 yds to the BOIS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
80.8%
Maddux Madsen run for no gain to the BOIS 38Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
80.3%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Chris MarshallSimilar
Q2 8:09
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+10
79.0%
(08:16) Shotgun Madsen,Maddux sacked for loss of 3 yards to the BSU35 (Slayton,Xavier) PENALTY UNM Holding (Levells,Azariah) 10 yards from BSU38 to BSU48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+17
80.2%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 17 yds to the UNM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
80.8%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Dylan Riley for 14 yds to the UNM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
80.6%
Boise State Penalty, False Start (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+7
80.4%
Dylan Riley run for 7 yds to the UNM 15Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+3
79.3%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the UNM 12Similar
Q2 5:18
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+2
78.0%
Sire Gaines run for 2 yds to the UNM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
79.3%
Dylan Riley run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNM 12Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
-5
78.9%
PENALTY BSU False Start (Steele,Jason) 5 yards from UNM12 to UNM17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
+11
78.2%
Dylan Riley run for 11 yds to the UNM 6Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
84.5%
Ben Ford 6 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Colton Boomer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:5317% → 17%
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
82.6%
Jack Layne run for no gain to the UNM 9Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+3
82.6%
New Mexico Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 7
OWN 12
+1
82.9%
New Mexico Penalty, Illegal Formation (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:06
4TH & 6
OWN 13
+24
83.2%
Daniel Hughes punt for 54 yds , Malik Sherrod returns for 24 yds to the UNM 43Similar
Q2 2:06
4TH & 6
OWN 13
+24
83.2%
Daniel Hughes punt for 54 yds , Malik Sherrod returns for 24 yds to the BOIS 30Similar
Q2 2:06
4TH & 6
OWN 13
+24
83.2%
Daniel Hughes punt for 54 yds , Malik Sherrod returns for 24 yds to the BOIS 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11PUNT
15 plays · 23 yds · 1:4983% → 83%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
82.5%
Dylan Riley run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 29Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+18
82.1%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chris Marshall for 18 yds to the BOIS 47 for a 1ST down New Mexico Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Damon Bankston) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
83.9%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Matt LauterSimilar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+7
83.0%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 7 yds to the UNM 46Similar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
82.8%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Matt LauterSimilar
Q2 1:22
4TH & 3
OPP 46
+7
82.3%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ben Ford for 7 yds to the UNM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
83.9%
PENALTY BSU False Start (Carreon,Roger) 5 yards from UNM39 to UNM44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+5
82.9%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 5 yds to the UNM 39Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-2
83.4%
Maddux Madsen sacked by Keyshawn James-Newby for a loss of 2 yards to the UNM 41Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 12
OPP 41
-6
83.8%
Maddux Madsen sacked by Xavier Slayton for a loss of 6 yards to the UNM 47Similar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 18
OPP 47
0
82.6%
Oscar Doyle punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
83.5%
J. Laubstein takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13FG
14 plays · 43 yds · 5:3182% → 83%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
81.5%
Sire Gaines run for 1 yd to the BOIS 26Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+18
82.0%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ben Ford for 18 yds to the BOIS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
83.2%
Sire Gaines run for 2 yds to the BOIS 46Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+6
83.0%
Sire Gaines run for 6 yds to the UNM 48Similar
Q3 12:22
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+4
82.5%
Sire Gaines run for 4 yds to the UNM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
82.8%
Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the UNM 43Similar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+16
82.4%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chris Marshall for 16 yds to the UNM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
82.9%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Dylan RileySimilar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+5
82.8%
Dylan Riley run for 5 yds to the UNM 22Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 5
OPP 22
-5
82.2%
PENALTY BSU False Start (Metoyer,Daylon) 5 yards from UNM22 to UNM27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 10
OPP 27
-5
82.0%
PENALTY BSU False Start (Casey,Kage) 5 yards from UNM27 to UNM32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 15
OPP 32
0
80.8%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Dylan RileySimilar
Q3 9:22
4TH & 15
OPP 32
+50
83.1%
Colton Boomer 50 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 14FG
12 plays · 64 yds · 4:5617% → 24%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
82.6%
Damon Bankston run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNM 21Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+7
82.8%
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 7 yds to the UNM 28Similar
Q3 7:54
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+36
82.9%
Jack Layne pass complete to Damon Bankston for 36 yds to the BOIS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
79.3%
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Cade KeithSimilar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+7
79.3%
Damon Bankston run for 7 yds to the BOIS 29Similar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 3
OPP 29
-5
78.8%
PENALTY UNM False Start (Lawrence,Tyler) 5 yards from BSU29 to BSU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+21
79.2%
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 21 yds to the BOIS 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
77.1%
Damon Bankston run for 1 yd to the BOIS 12Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 9
OPP 12
0
76.9%
D.J. McKinney pass incomplete to Jack LayneSimilar
Q3 4:53
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+1
78.3%
Jack Layne run for 1 yd to the BOIS 11Similar
Q3 4:21
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+29
76.2%
Luke Drzewiecki 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:5178% → 92%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
77.7%
Dylan Riley run for 28 yds to the UNM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+17
80.2%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ben Ford for 17 yds to the UNM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
80.8%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 5 yds to the UNM 25Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 5
OPP 25
-5
80.7%
PENALTY BSU False Start (Metoyer,Daylon) 5 yards from UNM25 to UNM30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+1
80.5%
Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the UNM 29Similar
Q3 1:31
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+11
79.0%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Cameron Bates for 11 yds to the UNM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
80.1%
Sire Gaines run for 3 yds to the UNM 15Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+7
79.8%
Sire Gaines run for 7 yds to the UNM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
81.0%
Sire Gaines run for 4 yds to the UNM 4Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
91.6%
Sire Gaines 4 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 21 yds · 2:279% → 10%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.6%
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Keagan JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
90.8%
Damon Bankston run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNM 24Similar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+16
91.3%
Jack Layne pass complete to Damon Bankston for 16 yds to the UNM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
89.1%
Damon Bankston run for 8 yds to the UNM 48Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 2
OWN 48
-2
88.3%
Damon Bankston run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNM 46Similar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
89.0%
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Keagan JohnsonSimilar
Q4 11:49
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
89.9%
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Dorian ThomasSimilar
Q4 11:49
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
89.9%
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Dorian ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17TD
10 plays · 46 yds · 4:1491% → 98%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
91.4%
Dylan Riley run for 7 yds to the UNM 39Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+2
91.2%
Dylan Riley run for 2 yds to the UNM 37Similar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+11
90.8%
Dylan Riley run for 11 yds to the UNM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
91.6%
Dylan Riley run for 3 yds to the UNM 23Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+11
91.7%
Dylan Riley run for 11 yds to the UNM 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
93.0%
Dylan Riley run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNM 13Similar
Q4 8:17
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+3
93.6%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the UNM 10Similar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
93.4%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Latrell CaplesSimilar
Q4 7:31
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+10
97.8%
Troy Grizzle 10 Yd pass from Oscar Doyle (Colton Boomer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 18INT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:413% → 3%
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
97.2%
PENALTY UNM Delay Of Game 5 yards from UNM25 to UNM20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-6
97.2%
Jack Layne sacked by Braxton Fely for a loss of 6 yards to the UNM 14Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 21
OWN 14
0
97.3%
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Keagan JohnsonSimilar
Q4 6:50
3RD & 21
OWN 14
-14
97.3%
Jack Layne pass intercepted Ty Benefield return for 14 yds to the UNM 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19TD
5 plays · 33 yds · 1:2999% → 100%
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
99.1%
Dylan Riley run for 7 yds to the UNM 26Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+1
99.2%
Dylan Riley run for 1 yd to the UNM 25Similar
Q4 5:19
3RD & 2
OPP 25
0
99.3%
Sire Gaines run for no gain to the UNM 25Similar
Q4 5:14
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+25
99.7%
Ben Ford 25 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Colton Boomer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 20TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 3:510% → 3%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.6%
Scottre Humphrey run for 2 yds to the UNM 27Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
99.6%
James Laubstein pass complete to Scottre Humphrey for 6 yds to the UNM 33Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
99.6%
Scottre Humphrey run for 3 yds to the UNM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
99.6%
James Laubstein pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 6 yds to the UNM 42Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
99.6%
James Laubstein pass incomplete to Keagan JohnsonSimilar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
99.6%
James Laubstein pass complete to Keagan Johnson for no gain to the UNM 42Similar
Q4 2:59
4TH & 4
OWN 42
+26
99.6%
James Laubstein pass complete to Dorian Thomas for 26 yds to the BOIS 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
99.5%
New Mexico Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BOIS 38Similar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 16
OPP 38
+3
99.6%
James Laubstein pass complete to Shawn Miller for 3 yds to the BOIS 35Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+9
99.5%
James Laubstein pass complete to Cade Keith for 9 yds to the BOIS 26Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 4
OPP 26
0
99.5%
James Laubstein pass incomplete to Keagan JohnsonSimilar
Q4 1:46
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+9
99.6%
James Laubstein run for 9 yds to the BOIS 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+13
99.5%
James Laubstein pass complete to Cade Keith for 13 yds to the BOIS 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.4%
James Laubstein pass incomplete to Zhaiel SmithSimilar
Q4 1:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.8%
Keagan Johnson 4 Yd pass from James Laubstein (James Laubstein Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 1:0499% → 99%
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
50
-1
99.3%
(01:09) Kneel down by Boise State at BSU49 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 49
-1
99.3%
(00:36) Kneel down by Boise State at BSU48 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:22
Sire Gaines 4 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)
+10.6
TD · Q2 3:20
Ben Ford 6 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Colton Boomer Kick)
+6.2
TD · Q4 7:31
Troy Grizzle 10 Yd pass from Oscar Doyle (Colton Boomer Kick)
+4.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com