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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadUNLV aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreUNLV score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · A. Colandrea takes a knee
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 1:36: Ramon Villela 36 yd FG GOOD — UNLV win probability +4.4 pts (now 62%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
- PUNT · Q2 0:59: Bart Edmiston punt blocked by Kayden McGee blocked by Kayden McGee for a TD , Jaden Bradley returns for 13 yds for a TD (Ramon Villela KICK) — UNLV win probability +8.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:46: Deion DeBlanc run for 12 yds for a TD (Erik Sandvik KICK) — WYO win probability +8.1 pts (now 28%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:20: Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jai'Den Thomas for 8 yds for a TD (Ramon Villela KICK) — UNLV win probability +5.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:55: Kaden Anderson pass complete to Justin Erb for 6 yds for a TD (Erik Sandvik KICK) — WYO win probability +2.3 pts (now 3%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 8 of 8UNLV made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 12:59WYO 4th & 9 at UNLV 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.9% before the snapGo for it40.9%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call40.9%79% to makePunt40.5%−0.4average punt
- Q1 6:29WYO 4th & 7 at WYO 39, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snapGo for it41.0%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.1%average punt
- Q1 4:49UNLV 4th & 1 at WYO 16, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call62.0%71% to convertField goal61.2%−0.781% to makePunt59.0%−3.0average punt
- Q1 1:36UNLV 4th & 13 at WYO 18, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.6% before the snapGo for it61.6%−0.919% to convertField goalTheir call62.5%79% to makePunt59.5%−3.0average punt
- Q2 12:39WYO 4th & 4 at UNLV 40, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call33.6%48% to convertField goal32.6%−1.034% to makePunt32.8%−0.8average punt
- Q2 9:49UNLV 4th & 13 at WYO 49, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.7% before the snapGo for it69.4%−1.821% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.3%average punt
- Q2 7:34WYO 4th & 10 at WYO 49, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snapGo for it28.8%−0.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.1%average punt
- Q2 5:21UNLV 4th & 6 at UNLV 16, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snapGo for it70.4%−1.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.5%average punt
- Q2 3:22UNLV 4th & 7 at UNLV 27, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.8% before the snapGo for it72.4%−0.936% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.3%average punt
- Q2 3:22UNLV 4th & 7 at UNLV 27, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.8% before the snapGo for it72.4%−0.936% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.3%average punt
- Q2 0:59WYO 4th & 6 at WYO 26, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snapGo for it23.0%−0.939% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.9%average punt
- Q3 9:23UNLV 4th & 13 at UNLV 36, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.0% before the snapGo for it79.6%−2.420% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.0%average punt
- Q3 9:23WYO 4th & 2 at UNLV 34, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call22.5%57% to convertField goal21.0%−1.547% to makePunt20.3%−2.1average punt
- Q3 0:00UNLV 4th & 2 at UNLV 47, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call88.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt86.9%−1.3average punt
- Q4 12:41UNLV 4th & 5 at WYO 44, up 14Close callPunted · 90.2% before the snapGo for it90.6%41% to convertField goal88.9%−1.727% to makePuntTheir call90.2%−0.4average punt
- Q4 11:51WYO 4th & 10 at WYO 20, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snapGo for it10.9%−0.627% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.5%average punt
- Q4 1:34WYO 4th & 10 at WYO 46, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.6%29% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.5%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UNLV made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 9:18UNLV Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call58.7%97% to makeGo for two58.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:46WYO Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call20.9%97% to makeGo for two20.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:20UNLV Touchdown, up 20 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%−<0.197% to makeGo for two98.8%45% to convert
- Q4 1:55WYO Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.5%97% to makeGo for two2.5%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUNLVDrive 1FUMBLE2 plays · -6 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
45.5%
Anthony Colandrea run for a loss of 6 yards to the UNLV 19 Anthony Colandrea fumbled, recovered by WYO Evan EllerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 2FG4 plays · 1 yds · 1:5546% → 46%
Q1 14:54
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+2
45.5%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for 2 yds to the UNLV 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3TD8 plays · 67 yds · 3:3454% → 55%
Q1 12:52
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+24
46.2%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jaden Bradley for 24 yds to the WYO 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 4PUNT TD7 plays · 14 yds · 2:4946% → 43%
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
46.0%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Samuel Harris for 11 yds to the WYO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+3
46.0%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for 3 yds to the WYO 37Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 9
OWN 37
-5
45.9%
PENALTY WYO False Start (Davies,Jake) 5 yards from WYO37 to WYO32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+7
45.7%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Samuel Harris for 7 yds to the WYO 39Similar
Q1 6:29
4TH & 7
OWN 39
+16
43.2%
Bart Edmiston punt blocked by Jaden Bradley blocked by Jaden Bradley for a TD , Kayden McGee returns for 16 yds for a TD (Ramon Villela KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 5FUMBLE5 plays · 10 yds · 1:4043% → 43%
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
43.4%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Jaylen Sargent for 12 yds to the WYO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 6FG10 plays · 17 yds · 3:1358% → 62%
WYODrive 7DOWNS12 plays · 50 yds · 3:5237% → 36%
Q1 1:31
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+5
37.3%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Jaylen Sargent for 5 yds to the WYO 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+12
37.6%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Jackson Holman for 12 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
37.8%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for 3 yds to the UNLV 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+3
37.6%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for 3 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 2:5066% → 68%
Q2 12:39
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+7
33.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jaden Bradley for 7 yds to the WYO 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
33.6%
Shotgun Colandrea,Anthony pass incomplete short left to Lyons,Taeshaun thrown to WYO30 PENALTY UNLV Holding 10 yards from WYO46 to UNLV44. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 9PUNT11 plays · 42 yds · 2:1532% → 31%
Q2 9:49
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+9
31.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Anderson,Kaden pass incomplete short left to Richardson,Eric thrown to WYO20, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UNLV Pass Interference (Powdrell,Andrew) 9 yards from WYO11 to WYO20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
31.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Anderson,Kaden pass incomplete short left to Sargent,Jaylen thrown to WYO42 broken up by Stewart,Darrien PENALTY UNLV Offside offsetting WYO Holding offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+11
31.8%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Deion DeBlanc for 11 yds to the WYO 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
32.2%
PENALTY UNLV UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Adeleye,Tunmise) 15 yards from WYO34 to WYO49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 2:1369% → 70%
Q2 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 12
-4
30.8%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Evan Eller for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 11FUMBLE2 plays · 6 yds · 0:1732% → 31%
UNLVDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4271% → 71%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 13PUNT TD9 plays · 25 yds · 2:2328% → 19%
Q2 0:59
4TH & 6
OWN 26
+13
19.0%
Bart Edmiston punt blocked by Kayden McGee blocked by Kayden McGee for a TD , Jaden Bradley returns for 13 yds for a TD (Ramon Villela KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14END OF HALF4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5919% → 19%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
19.2%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Sam Scott for 9 yds to the WYO 34Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-10
18.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Scott,Sam rush left for 2 yards gain to the WYO36 (Edmondson,Bryce) PENALTY WYO Holding (Walsh,Jack) 10 yards from WYO34 to WYO24. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 15TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1417% → 28%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
17.1%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Jaylen Sargent for 9 yds to the WYO 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+36
17.8%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Sam Scott for 36 yds to the UNLV 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+9
19.6%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Eric Richardson for 9 yds to the UNLV 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 11 yds · 3:2376% → 80%
Q3 12:46
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
23.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Koy Moore for 10 yds to the UNLV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 5
OWN 44
-8
22.1%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Tyce Westland for a loss of 8 yards to the UNLV 36Similar
Q3 12:46
3RD & 13
OWN 36
0
23.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to DeAngelo Irvin Jr. for no gain to the UNLV 36Similar
Q3 9:23
4TH & 13
OWN 36
0
20.4%
Cameron Brown punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Charlie Coenen at the WYO 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 17INT12 plays · 58 yds · 5:3522% → 20%
Q3 9:23
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+29
22.7%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Jaylen Sargent for 29 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+8
24.3%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Isaac Schoenfeld for 8 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
25.2%
PENALTY WYO False Start (Schoenfeld,Isaac) 5 yards from UNLV32 to UNLV37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+28
25.0%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Terron Kellman for 28 yds to the UNLV 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-15
20.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Anderson,Kaden pass complete short left to Scott,Sam caught at UNLV05, for 6 yards to the UNLV00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 04:01 PENALTY WYO Pass Interference (Svoboda,Evan) 15 yards from UNLV06 to UNLV21. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18PUNT14 plays · 42 yds · 6:0784% → 92%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
9.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jaden Bradley for 3 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 19PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5014% → 13%
Q4 11:51
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+3
12.9%
Bart Edmiston punt for 52 yds , DeAngelo Irvin Jr. returns for 3 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 20TD10 plays · 69 yds · 5:3193% → 99%
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
7.2%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jai'Den Thomas for 9 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
6.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to DeAngelo Irvin Jr. for 3 yds to the UNLV 46Similar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+27
6.6%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jaden Bradley for 27 yds to the WYO 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
6.4%
Anthony Colandrea run for a loss of 2 yards to the WYO 8 Anthony Colandrea fumbled, recovered by UNLVSimilar
Q4 6:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
0.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jai'Den Thomas for 8 yds for a TD (Ramon Villela KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 21TD15 plays · 75 yds · 4:251% → 3%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
1.4%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Justin Erb for 3 yds to the WYO 28Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
1.4%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Jaylan Bean for 15 yds to the WYO 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+7
1.5%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Evan Svoboda for 7 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
1.5%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Samuel Harris for 4 yds to the UNLV 42Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+10
1.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Anderson,Kaden pass complete short left to Bean,Jaylan caught at UNLV32, for 0 yards to the UNLV42 PENALTY UNLV Holding (Fulton,Tre) 10 yards from UNLV42 to UNLV32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+15
1.7%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Michael Fitzgerald for 15 yds to the UNLV 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
1.8%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Jaylan Bean for 6 yds to the UNLV 11Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+5
1.8%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Evan Svoboda for 5 yds to the UNLV 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
3.3%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Justin Erb for 6 yds for a TD (Erik Sandvik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 22DOWNS5 plays · 0 yds · 0:193% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 23END OF GAME6 plays · 18 yds · 1:3498% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
PUNT · Q2 0:59
Bart Edmiston punt blocked by Kayden McGee blocked by Kayden McGee for a TD , Jaden Bradley returns for 13 yds for a TD (Ramon Villela KICK)
-8.1
TD · Q3 12:46
Deion DeBlanc run for 12 yds for a TD (Erik Sandvik KICK)
+8.1
TD · Q4 6:20
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jai'Den Thomas for 8 yds for a TD (Ramon Villela KICK)
-5.5