Try the model
UNM

New Mexico 28 at San José State 35

SJSU
2025 · Week 6 · Oct 3, 2025 · CEFCU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreUNM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · W. Eget takes a knee
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:30: Damon Bankston run for 4 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK) — UNM win probability +7.0 pts (now 33%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:29: Scottre Humphrey run for 1 yd for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK) — UNM win probability +7.2 pts (now 30%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:27: Steve Chavez-Soto run for 10 yds for a TD (Mathias Brown KICK) — SJSU win probability +9.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:42: Walker Eget pass complete to Leland Smith for 8 yds for a TD (Mathias Brown KICK) — SJSU win probability +8.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:02: J. Layne run for 3 yds for a TD (J. Layne pass to S. Miller for Two-Point Conversion) — UNM win probability +14.2 pts (now 19%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5UNM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 12:21SJSU 4th & 1 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    57.1%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:52UNM 4th & 1 at SJSU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    38.7%−0.8
    32% to make
    Punt
    38.8%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 3:29UNM 4th & 1 at SJSU 1, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    23.0%−2.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    18.5%−6.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:52SJSU 4th & 8 at SJSU 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.2%
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:10UNM 4th & 13 at UNM 6, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−2.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  6. Q4 14:02SJSU 4th & 8 at SJSU 29, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%
    average punt
  7. Q4 6:38SJSU 4th & 2 at UNM 48, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q4 6:38SJSU 4th & 2 at UNM 48, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q4 3:41UNM 4th & 10 at SJSU 14, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.6%−0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−2.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UNM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:10SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:22SJSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:30UNM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:15SJSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:29UNM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:27SJSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:42SJSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:02UNM Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    9.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    10.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:4266% → 68%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
66.3%
Lamar Radcliffe run for 8 yds to the SJSU 33Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
66.3%
Walker Eget pass complete to Kyri Shoels for 8 yds to the SJSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
66.3%
Lamar Radcliffe run for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSU 38Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+6
66.2%
Walker Eget pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 6 yds to the SJSU 44Similar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+6
66.2%
Walker Eget pass complete to Kyri Shoels for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:21
4TH & 1
50
+5
66.2%
Lamar Radcliffe run for 5 yds to the UNM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
66.4%
Lamar Radcliffe run for 2 yds to the UNM 43Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+24
66.4%
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 24 yds to the UNM 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
66.5%
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 4 yds to the UNM 15Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+5
66.5%
Viliami Teu run for 5 yds to the UNM 10Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+6
66.4%
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 6 yds to the UNM 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
68.4%
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 4 yds for a TD (Mathias Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 2INT
10 plays · 36 yds · 4:4032% → 32%
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
67.7%
Damon Bankston run for 5 yds to the UNM 30Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
67.7%
Jack Layne pass complete to Cade Keith for 4 yds to the UNM 34Similar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
67.8%
Damon Bankston run for 2 yds to the UNM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
67.8%
Damon Bankston run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
50
+5
67.5%
Jack Layne pass complete to Damon Bankston for 5 yds to the SJSU 45Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
67.5%
Scottre Humphrey run for no gain to the SJSU 45Similar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+4
67.7%
Jack Layne pass complete to Deshaun Buchanan for 4 yds to the SJSU 41Similar
Q1 4:52
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+2
68.2%
Scottre Humphrey run for 2 yds to the SJSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-9
67.7%
Jack Layne pass intercepted Larry Turner-Gooden return for 9 yds to the SJSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3TD
12 plays · 67 yds · 4:4369% → 77%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
69.1%
Lamar Radcliffe run for 4 yds to the SJSU 37Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+11
69.7%
Walker Eget pass complete to Leland Smith for 11 yds to the SJSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
70.1%
Lamar Radcliffe run for 4 yds to the UNM 48Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+4
70.1%
Walker Eget pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 4 yds to the UNM 44Similar
Q1 1:31
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+7
70.0%
Walker Eget run for 7 yds to the UNM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
70.5%
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 9 yds to the UNM 28Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+5
70.9%
Walker Eget pass complete to Leland Smith for 5 yds to the UNM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
70.9%
Lamar Radcliffe run for 12 yds to the UNM 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
76.7%
Walker Eget pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 11 yds for a TD (Mathias Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 4TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:4326% → 33%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
74.2%
Jack Layne pass complete to Cade Keith for 15 yds to the UNM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
74.3%
D.J. McKinney run for 3 yds to the UNM 43Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+1
74.5%
D.J. McKinney run for 1 yd to the UNM 44Similar
Q2 12:13
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+11
74.9%
Jack Layne pass complete to Michael Buckley for 11 yds to the SJSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
74.5%
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Dorian ThomasSimilar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
74.9%
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 7 yds to the SJSU 38Similar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+5
74.6%
Jack Layne run for 5 yds to the SJSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+22
74.5%
Jack Layne pass complete to Simon Mapa for 22 yds to the SJSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
74.6%
Damon Bankston run for 7 yds to the SJSU 4Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+4
67.5%
Damon Bankston run for 4 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 92 yds · 2:5471% → 79%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
70.9%
Lamar Radcliffe run for no gain to the SJSU 8Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 17
OWN 8
+16
71.6%
Walker Eget pass complete to Leland Smith for 16 yds to the SJSU 24Similar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+5
71.5%
Lamar Radcliffe run for 5 yds to the SJSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
72.3%
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 1 yd to the SJSU 30Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
72.3%
Walker Eget pass complete to Matthew Coleman for no gain to the SJSU 30Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+70
78.6%
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 70 yds for a TDSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
79.3%
PENALTY UNM Roughing The Kicker (Swaim,Mercury) 15 yards from SJSU35 to SJSU50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 6TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 2:2522% → 30%
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+42
78.5%
Jack Layne pass complete to Shawn Miller for 42 yds to the SJSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+28
77.6%
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 19 yds to the SJSU 17 for a 1ST down San José State Penalty, (9 Yards) to the SJSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
76.6%
Scottre Humphrey run for 1 yd to the SJSU 7Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
76.8%
Scottre Humphrey run for 3 yds to the SJSU 4Similar
Q2 4:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
77.7%
Scottre Humphrey run for 3 yds to the SJSU 1Similar
Q2 3:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.5%
Scottre Humphrey run for 1 yd for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 1:2473% → 72%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
73.3%
Lamar Radcliffe run for 11 yds to the SJSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
74.6%
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 3 yds to the SJSU 43Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+4
74.7%
Walker Eget run for 4 yds to the SJSU 47Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
74.0%
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Danny ScuderoSimilar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 3
OWN 47
-5
72.7%
(02:00) PENALTY SJSU False Start (Shoels,Kyri) 5 yards from SJSU47 to SJSU42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:52
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
71.9%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 8FG
20 plays · 72 yds · 1:5228% → 33%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
72.3%
PENALTY SJSU Personal Foul (Pollard,Jordan) 15 yards from UNM20 to UNM35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
71.8%
(01:52) No Huddle-Shotgun Layne,Jack pass complete deep middle to Buckley,Michael caught at SJSU24, for 65 yards to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 01:43 PENALTY UNM Holding (Pearce,Richard) 10 yards from UNM35 to UNM25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+10
72.5%
Jack Layne pass complete to Dorian Thomas for 10 yds to the UNM 35Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
72.2%
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 5 yds to the UNM 40Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+9
71.5%
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 9 yds to the UNM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
70.2%
Jack Layne sacked by Jalen Bainer for a loss of 1 yard to the UNM 48Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+15
72.4%
(01:01) No Huddle-Shotgun Layne,Jack pass incomplete deep right to Johnson,Keagan thrown to SJSU28 PENALTY SJSU Pass Interference (Thomas,Jaylen) 15 yards from UNM48 to SJSU37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
70.6%
Jack Layne sacked by Etu Finau for a loss of 10 yards to the SJSU 47Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 20
OPP 47
+15
73.9%
(00:47) No Huddle-Shotgun Layne,Jack sacked for loss of 10 yards to the UNM43 (Finau,Etu) PENALTY SJSU Face Mask (Siaosi,Noa) 15 yards from SJSU47 to SJSU32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
70.7%
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Keagan JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+12
70.7%
Jack Layne pass complete to Michael Buckley for 12 yds to the SJSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
70.4%
Jack Layne pass complete to Dorian Thomas for 13 yds to the SJSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
70.4%
Jack Layne sacked by Quincy Likio for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSU 8Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
69.9%
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Dorian ThomasSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
67.0%
Luke Drzewiecki 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:2332% → 31%
Q3 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
67.7%
Jack Layne pass complete to Dorian Thomas for 2 yds to the UNM 11Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 11
0
67.7%
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Dorian ThomasSimilar
Q3 14:03
3RD & 8
OWN 11
0
68.7%
(14:10) Shotgun Layne,Jack pass incomplete deep middle to Johnson,Keagan thrown to UNM48 PENALTY SJSU Pass Interference offsetting UNM Personal Foul offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 8
OWN 11
-5
68.7%
(14:03) Shotgun Layne,Jack pass complete short right to Miller,Shawn caught at UNM18, for 28 yards to the UNM39 (Latu,Taniela) PENALTY UNM Holding (Aliane,Malik) 5 yards from UNM11 to UNM06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 13
OWN 6
0
68.9%
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Michael BuckleySimilar
Q3 13:10
4TH & 13
OWN 6
0
69.5%
Daniel Hughes punt for 64 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 2:3368% → 83%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
68.0%
Lamar Radcliffe run for 6 yds to the SJSU 36Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+7
68.9%
Walker Eget pass complete to Kyri Shoels for 7 yds to the SJSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+39
69.4%
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 39 yds to the UNM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
73.6%
Lamar Radcliffe run for 8 yds to the UNM 10Similar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+10
82.7%
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 10 yds for a TD (Mathias Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:2320% → 20%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
80.2%
Damon Bankston run for 9 yds to the UNM 34Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
79.5%
Damon Bankston run for 4 yds to the UNM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
80.0%
Jack Layne pass intercepted Jalen Bainer return for no gain to the SJSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 12TD
13 plays · 86 yds · 6:0582% → 95%
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
82.4%
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 5 yds to the SJSU 19Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 5
OWN 19
-9
82.7%
(08:25) No Huddle-Shotgun Radcliffe,Lamar rush middle for 0 yards to the SJSU19 (Booker,Brian) PENALTY SJSU Holding (Hale,Nate) 9 yards from SJSU19 to SJSU10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 14
OWN 10
+9
82.6%
Walker Eget pass complete to Kyri Shoels for 9 yds to the SJSU 19Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+8
82.2%
Walker Eget pass complete to Kyri Shoels for 8 yds to the SJSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+35
83.3%
Walker Eget pass complete to Kyri Shoels for 35 yds to the UNM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
84.7%
San José State Penalty, (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+15
85.1%
Walker Eget pass complete to Leland Smith for 15 yds to the UNM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
85.4%
Lamar Radcliffe run for no gain to the UNM 23Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+6
85.9%
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 6 yds to the UNM 17Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+11
85.5%
Walker Eget pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 11 yds to the UNM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
86.7%
Walker Eget run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNM 8Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
95.0%
Walker Eget pass complete to Leland Smith for 8 yds for a TD (Mathias Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13INT
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:276% → 6%
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
93.6%
Jack Layne pass complete to Zhaiel Smith for 10 yds to the UNM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
93.5%
Deshaun Buchanan run for 5 yds to the UNM 39Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+9
93.5%
Jack Layne pass complete to Shawn Miller for 9 yds to the UNM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+20
93.9%
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 20 yds to the SJSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-8
93.7%
Jack Layne sacked by Jireh Moe for a loss of 8 yards to the SJSU 40Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 18
OPP 40
0
94.5%
Jack Layne pass intercepted Jalen Bainer return for no gain to the SJSU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4396% → 96%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
96.0%
Lamar Radcliffe run for 2 yds to the SJSU 29Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
96.3%
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Danny ScuderoSimilar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
96.5%
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Danny ScuderoSimilar
Q4 14:02
4TH & 8
OWN 29
0
96.2%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Shawn Miller at the UNM 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 2:545% → 19%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
95.2%
Jack Layne pass complete to Dorian Thomas for 15 yds to the UNM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
95.2%
D.J. McKinney run for 4 yds to the UNM 47Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+9
95.3%
Jack Layne pass complete to Shawn Miller for 9 yds to the SJSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
95.5%
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 16 yds to the SJSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
94.8%
Damon Bankston run for 5 yds to the SJSU 23Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+1
95.3%
Damon Bankston run for 1 yd to the SJSU 22Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+16
95.8%
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 16 yds to the SJSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
95.5%
D.J. McKinney run for 3 yds to the SJSU 3Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
81.3%
J. Layne run for 3 yds for a TD (J. Layne pass to S. Miller for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 16PUNT
12 plays · 41 yds · 4:0987% → 91%
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
86.9%
Steve Chavez-Soto run for no gain to the SJSU 16Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+6
87.0%
Walker Eget pass complete to Leland Smith for 6 yds to the SJSU 22Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+9
86.8%
Walker Eget pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 9 yds to the SJSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
89.5%
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 13 yds to the SJSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
91.1%
Steve Chavez-Soto run for no gain to the SJSU 44Similar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
91.0%
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Leland SmithSimilar
Q4 7:31
3RD & 10
OWN 44
-5
90.5%
(07:31) PENALTY SJSU False Start (Lapuaho,Peseti) 5 yards from SJSU44 to SJSU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:26
3RD & 15
OWN 39
+8
90.0%
Walker Eget pass complete to Kyri Shoels for 8 yds to the SJSU 47Similar
Q4 6:48
4TH & 7
OWN 47
+5
90.7%
(06:54) Carrizosa,Trent punt 35 yards to the UNM18 fair catch by Miller,Shawn at UNM18 PENALTY UNM Running Into The Kicker (Johnson,Dimitri) 5 yards from SJSU47 to UNM48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:38
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
90.8%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 37 ydsSimilar
Q4 6:38
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
90.8%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17FG
13 plays · 80 yds · 2:438% → 14%
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
92.0%
Jack Layne pass complete to Shawn Miller for 6 yds to the UNM 12Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+10
92.0%
Jack Layne pass complete to Damon Bankston for 10 yds to the UNM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
92.0%
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 5 yds to the UNM 27Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
91.1%
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Keagan JohnsonSimilar
Q4 5:22
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+24
91.9%
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 24 yds to the SJSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
90.1%
Jack Layne run for 11 yds to the SJSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
90.1%
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 3 yds to the SJSU 35Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+21
89.1%
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 21 yds to the SJSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
89.1%
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Keagan JohnsonSimilar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
89.2%
Jack Layne pass incomplete to D.J. McKinneySimilar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 10
OPP 14
0
91.2%
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Michael BuckleySimilar
Q4 3:41
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+31
85.9%
Luke Drzewiecki 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 18END OF GAME
14 plays · 32 yds · 3:3493% → 97%
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.6%
Lamar Radcliffe run for no gain to the SJSU 25Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
92.9%
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 8 yds to the SJSU 33Similar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
94.5%
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 2 yds to the SJSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
94.7%
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 1 yd to the SJSU 36Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+14
95.1%
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
50
+3
95.9%
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 3 yds to the UNM 47Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+8
96.1%
Walker Eget run for 8 yds to the UNM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
97.0%
W. Eget takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 40
-3
97.1%
W. Eget takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:02
J. Layne run for 3 yds for a TD (J. Layne pass to S. Miller for Two-Point Conversion)
-14.2
TD · Q3 10:27
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 10 yds for a TD (Mathias Brown KICK)
+9.1
TD · Q3 2:42
Walker Eget pass complete to Leland Smith for 8 yds for a TD (Mathias Brown KICK)
+8.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com