ARDLINETry the model
UNM

New Mexico 28 at San José State 35

SJSU
2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · CEFCU Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey play
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDKEY PLAYKEY PLAYTD
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SJSU · Drive 1TD · 15 plays · 75 yds
Q1 15:00
Charles Steinkamp kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
47.9%
0.0
Q1 14:52
Lamar Radcliffe run for 8 yds to the SJSU 33
50.8%
+2.9
Q1 14:27
Walker Eget pass complete to Kyri Shoels for 8 yds to the SJSU 41 for a 1ST down
51.1%
+0.3
Q1 13:55
Lamar Radcliffe run for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSU 38
52.0%
+0.9
Q1 13:16
Walker Eget pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 6 yds to the SJSU 44
51.7%
-0.3
Q1 12:48
Walker Eget pass complete to Kyri Shoels for 6 yds to the 50 yard line
52.0%
+0.3
Q1 12:21
Lamar Radcliffe run for 5 yds to the UNM 45 for a 1ST down
51.6%
-0.3
Q1 11:45
Lamar Radcliffe run for 2 yds to the UNM 43
53.2%
+1.5
Q1 11:07
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 24 yds to the UNM 19 for a 1ST down
53.6%
+0.4
Q1 10:23
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 4 yds to the UNM 15
53.6%
0.0
Q1 9:48
Viliami Teu run for 5 yds to the UNM 10
53.6%
0.0
Q1 9:35
Timeout San José State, clock 09:35
53.3%
-0.3
Q1 9:21
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 6 yds to the UNM 4 for a 1ST down
53.4%
+0.1
Q1 9:10
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 4 yds for a TD (Mathias Brown KICK)
67.5%
+14.0
Q1 9:10
Timeout San José State, clock 09:10
62.2%
-5.2
UNM · Drive 2INT · 10 plays · 36 yds
Q1 9:03
Mathias Brown kickoff for 65 yds , Abraham Williams return for 25 yds to the UNM 25
66.4%
+4.2
Q1 8:56
Damon Bankston run for 5 yds to the UNM 30
62.1%
-4.4
Q1 8:13
Jack Layne pass complete to Cade Keith for 4 yds to the UNM 34
62.3%
+0.2
Q1 7:54
Damon Bankston run for 2 yds to the UNM 36 for a 1ST down
62.3%
0.0
Q1 7:16
Damon Bankston run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
62.3%
0.0
Q1 6:39
Jack Layne pass complete to Damon Bankston for 5 yds to the SJSU 45
60.7%
-1.6
Q1 6:02
Scottre Humphrey run for no gain to the SJSU 45
60.9%
+0.2
Q1 5:24
Jack Layne pass complete to Deshaun Buchanan for 4 yds to the SJSU 41
60.9%
0.0
Q1 4:52
Scottre Humphrey run for 2 yds to the SJSU 39 for a 1ST down
61.3%
+0.4
Q1 4:16
Jack Layne pass intercepted Larry Turner-Gooden return for 9 yds to the SJSU 33
60.3%
-1.0
SJSU · Drive 3TD · 12 plays · 67 yds
Q1 4:16
Timeout San José State, clock 04:16
67.3%
+7.0
Q1 4:05
Lamar Radcliffe run for 4 yds to the SJSU 37
66.8%
-0.4
Q1 3:18
Walker Eget pass complete to Leland Smith for 11 yds to the SJSU 48 for a 1ST down
67.3%
+0.4
Q1 2:55
Lamar Radcliffe run for 4 yds to the UNM 48
67.8%
+0.5
Q1 2:08
Walker Eget pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 4 yds to the UNM 44
67.8%
0.0
Q1 1:31
Walker Eget run for 7 yds to the UNM 37 for a 1ST down
67.7%
0.0
Q1 0:53
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 9 yds to the UNM 28
68.0%
+0.3
Q1 0:52
Timeout San José State, clock 00:52
68.0%
0.0
Q1 0:00
Walker Eget pass complete to Leland Smith for 5 yds to the UNM 23 for a 1ST down
68.0%
-0.1
Q2 14:53
Lamar Radcliffe run for 12 yds to the UNM 11 for a 1ST down
68.0%
0.0
Q2 14:22
Walker Eget pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 11 yds for a TD (Mathias Brown KICK)
78.1%
+10.2
Q2 14:22
Timeout San José State, clock 14:22
76.9%
-1.2
UNM · Drive 4TD · 13 plays · 75 yds
Q2 14:22
Mathias Brown kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
77.9%
+0.9
Q2 14:13
Jack Layne pass complete to Cade Keith for 15 yds to the UNM 40 for a 1ST down
76.9%
-0.9
Q2 13:41
D.J. McKinney run for 3 yds to the UNM 43
76.9%
0.0
Q2 13:05
D.J. McKinney run for 1 yd to the UNM 44
76.9%
0.0
Q2 12:13
Jack Layne pass complete to Michael Buckley for 11 yds to the SJSU 45 for a 1ST down
76.9%
0.0
Q2 11:43
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Dorian Thomas
76.1%
-0.9
Q2 11:34
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 7 yds to the SJSU 38
76.1%
0.0
Q2 10:54
Jack Layne run for 5 yds to the SJSU 33 for a 1ST down
75.9%
-0.2
Q2 10:11
Jack Layne pass complete to Simon Mapa for 22 yds to the SJSU 11 for a 1ST down
75.3%
-0.5
Q2 9:48
Damon Bankston run for 7 yds to the SJSU 4
75.3%
0.0
Q2 9:30
Damon Bankston run for 4 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)
60.6%
-14.8
Q2 9:30
Timeout San José State, clock 09:30
67.2%
+6.6
Q2 9:18
Charles Steinkamp kickoff for 60 yds , Jahari Johnson return for 95 yds San José State Penalty, (10 Yards) to the SJSU 15
63.1%
-4.1
SJSU · Drive 5TD · 7 plays · 92 yds
Q2 9:09
Lamar Radcliffe run for no gain to the SJSU 8
67.2%
+4.1
Q2 8:10
Walker Eget pass complete to Leland Smith for 16 yds to the SJSU 24
68.2%
+1.0
Q2 7:58
Lamar Radcliffe run for 5 yds to the SJSU 29 for a 1ST down
68.2%
0.0
Q2 7:18
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 1 yd to the SJSU 30
68.2%
0.0
Q2 6:49
Walker Eget pass complete to Matthew Coleman for no gain to the SJSU 30
68.2%
0.0
Q2 6:15
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 70 yds for a TD
78.3%
+10.2
Q2 6:15
PENALTY UNM Roughing The Kicker (Swaim,Mercury) 15 yards from SJSU35 to SJSU50. NO PLAY.
78.3%
0.0
UNM · Drive 6TD · 8 plays · 78 yds
Q2 6:10
Mathias Brown kickoff for 42 yds , Damon Bankston return for 14 yds to the UNM 22
78.4%
+0.1
Q2 5:54
Jack Layne pass complete to Shawn Miller for 42 yds to the SJSU 36 for a 1ST down
77.4%
-1.1
Q2 5:19
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 19 yds to the SJSU 17 for a 1ST down San José State Penalty, (9 Yards) to the SJSU 8 for a 1ST down
76.1%
-1.3
Q2 5:08
Scottre Humphrey run for 1 yd to the SJSU 7
75.8%
-0.3
Q2 4:34
Scottre Humphrey run for 3 yds to the SJSU 4
76.0%
+0.2
Q2 4:03
Scottre Humphrey run for 3 yds to the SJSU 1
76.0%
0.0
Q2 3:29
Scottre Humphrey run for 1 yd for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)
62.4%
-13.6
Q2 3:29
Timeout San José State, clock 03:29
68.4%
+6.0
SJSU · Drive 7PUNT · 8 plays · 13 yds
Q2 3:23
Charles Steinkamp kickoff for 56 yds , Jahari Johnson return for 20 yds to the SJSU 29
64.2%
-4.3
Q2 3:16
Lamar Radcliffe run for 11 yds to the SJSU 40 for a 1ST down
68.4%
+4.3
Q2 3:00
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 3 yds to the SJSU 43
69.0%
+0.5
Q2 2:37
Walker Eget run for 4 yds to the SJSU 47
69.0%
0.0
Q2 2:00
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Danny Scudero
69.0%
+0.1
Q2 2:00
Timeout San José State, clock 02:00
68.4%
-0.6
Q2 2:00
(02:00) PENALTY SJSU False Start (Shoels,Kyri) 5 yards from SJSU47 to SJSU42. NO PLAY.
68.4%
0.0
Q2 1:52
Trent Carrizosa punt for 58 yds for a touchback
68.1%
-0.4
UNM · Drive 8FG · 20 plays · 72 yds
Q2 1:52
PENALTY SJSU Personal Foul (Pollard,Jordan) 15 yards from UNM20 to UNM35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
64.0%
-4.0
Q2 1:43
(01:52) No Huddle-Shotgun Layne,Jack pass complete deep middle to Buckley,Michael caught at SJSU24, for 65 yards to the SJSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 01:43 PENALTY UNM Holding (Pearce,Richard) 10 yards from UNM35 to UNM25. NO PLAY.
64.0%
0.0
Q2 1:36
Jack Layne pass complete to Dorian Thomas for 10 yds to the UNM 35
64.0%
0.0
Q2 1:19
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 5 yds to the UNM 40
64.0%
0.0
Q2 1:05
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 9 yds to the UNM 49 for a 1ST down
63.5%
-0.5
Q2 1:01
Jack Layne sacked by Jalen Bainer for a loss of 1 yard to the UNM 48
62.7%
-0.8
Q2 1:01
Timeout New Mexico, clock 01:01
62.8%
+0.2
Q2 0:56
(01:01) No Huddle-Shotgun Layne,Jack pass incomplete deep right to Johnson,Keagan thrown to SJSU28 PENALTY SJSU Pass Interference (Thomas,Jaylen) 15 yards from UNM48 to SJSU37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
62.8%
0.0
Q2 0:47
Jack Layne sacked by Etu Finau for a loss of 10 yards to the SJSU 47
61.7%
-1.1
Q2 0:47
Timeout New Mexico, clock 00:47
62.3%
+0.6
Q2 0:38
(00:47) No Huddle-Shotgun Layne,Jack sacked for loss of 10 yards to the UNM43 (Finau,Etu) PENALTY SJSU Face Mask (Siaosi,Noa) 15 yards from SJSU47 to SJSU32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
62.3%
0.0
Q2 0:35
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Keagan Johnson
61.7%
-0.6
Q2 0:27
Jack Layne pass complete to Michael Buckley for 12 yds to the SJSU 20 for a 1ST down
61.4%
-0.3
Q2 0:16
Jack Layne pass complete to Dorian Thomas for 13 yds to the SJSU 7 for a 1ST down
61.4%
0.0
Q2 0:07
Jack Layne sacked by Quincy Likio for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSU 8
61.4%
0.0
Q2 0:07
Timeout New Mexico, clock 00:07
61.2%
-0.2
Q2 0:03
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Dorian Thomas
61.2%
0.0
Q2 0:03
Timeout San José State, clock 00:03
61.2%
0.0
Q2 0:00
Luke Drzewiecki 25 yd FG GOOD
53.3%
-7.9
Q3 14:56
Mathias Brown kickoff for 61 yds , D.J. McKinney return for 13 yds to the UNM 48 New Mexico Penalty, Offensive Holding (8 Yards) to the UNM 9
69.4%
+16.1
UNM · Drive 9PUNT · 6 plays · -3 yds
Q3 14:33
Jack Layne pass complete to Dorian Thomas for 2 yds to the UNM 11
56.2%
-13.2
Q3 14:10
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Dorian Thomas
56.2%
0.0
Q3 14:03
(14:10) Shotgun Layne,Jack pass incomplete deep middle to Johnson,Keagan thrown to UNM48 PENALTY SJSU Pass Interference offsetting UNM Personal Foul offsetting. NO PLAY.
56.2%
0.0
Q3 13:53
(14:03) Shotgun Layne,Jack pass complete short right to Miller,Shawn caught at UNM18, for 28 yards to the UNM39 (Latu,Taniela) PENALTY UNM Holding (Aliane,Malik) 5 yards from UNM11 to UNM06. NO PLAY.
56.2%
0.0
Q3 13:23
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Michael Buckley
56.2%
0.0
Q3 13:10
Daniel Hughes punt for 64 yds
56.2%
0.0
SJSU · Drive 10TD · 7 plays · 70 yds
Q3 13:10
Timeout San José State, clock 13:10
62.7%
+6.5
Q3 13:00
Lamar Radcliffe run for 6 yds to the SJSU 36
62.3%
-0.5
Q3 12:16
Walker Eget pass complete to Kyri Shoels for 7 yds to the SJSU 43 for a 1ST down
62.7%
+0.5
Q3 11:43
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 39 yds to the UNM 18 for a 1ST down
63.1%
+0.3
Q3 11:00
Lamar Radcliffe run for 8 yds to the UNM 10
65.0%
+1.9
Q3 10:27
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 10 yds for a TD (Mathias Brown KICK)
79.2%
+14.2
Q3 10:27
Timeout San José State, clock 10:27
77.9%
-1.4
UNM · Drive 11INT · 4 plays · 13 yds
Q3 10:27
Mathias Brown kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
78.8%
+0.9
Q3 10:18
Damon Bankston run for 9 yds to the UNM 34
77.9%
-0.9
Q3 9:35
Damon Bankston run for 4 yds to the UNM 38 for a 1ST down
77.9%
+0.1
Q3 8:55
Jack Layne pass intercepted Jalen Bainer return for no gain to the SJSU 14
77.9%
0.0
SJSU · Drive 12TD · 13 plays · 86 yds
Q3 8:55
Timeout San José State, clock 08:55
78.8%
+0.9
Q3 8:47
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 5 yds to the SJSU 19
78.8%
0.0
Q3 8:18
(08:25) No Huddle-Shotgun Radcliffe,Lamar rush middle for 0 yards to the SJSU19 (Booker,Brian) PENALTY SJSU Holding (Hale,Nate) 9 yards from SJSU19 to SJSU10. NO PLAY.
78.8%
0.0
Q3 8:01
Walker Eget pass complete to Kyri Shoels for 9 yds to the SJSU 19
78.8%
0.0
Q3 7:31
Walker Eget pass complete to Kyri Shoels for 8 yds to the SJSU 27 for a 1ST down
78.8%
0.0
Q3 6:45
Walker Eget pass complete to Kyri Shoels for 35 yds to the UNM 38 for a 1ST down
79.2%
+0.4
Q3 6:21
San José State Penalty, (Yards) declined
79.7%
+0.4
Q3 5:45
Walker Eget pass complete to Leland Smith for 15 yds to the UNM 23 for a 1ST down
81.1%
+1.4
Q3 5:08
Lamar Radcliffe run for no gain to the UNM 23
81.0%
0.0
Q3 4:32
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 6 yds to the UNM 17
81.0%
0.0
Q3 3:53
Walker Eget pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 11 yds to the UNM 6 for a 1ST down
80.9%
-0.2
Q3 3:13
Walker Eget run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNM 8
82.4%
+1.5
Q3 2:42
Walker Eget pass complete to Leland Smith for 8 yds for a TD (Mathias Brown KICK)
88.3%
+5.9
UNM · Drive 13INT · 7 plays · 36 yds
Q3 2:35
Mathias Brown kickoff for 64 yds , D.J. McKinney return for 23 yds to the UNM 24
88.0%
-0.3
Q3 2:19
Jack Layne pass complete to Zhaiel Smith for 10 yds to the UNM 34 for a 1ST down
88.9%
+1.0
Q3 2:01
Deshaun Buchanan run for 5 yds to the UNM 39
88.9%
0.0
Q3 1:42
Jack Layne pass complete to Shawn Miller for 9 yds to the UNM 48 for a 1ST down
88.9%
0.0
Q3 1:02
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 20 yds to the SJSU 32 for a 1ST down
88.9%
0.0
Q3 0:00
Jack Layne sacked by Jireh Moe for a loss of 8 yards to the SJSU 40
88.7%
-0.2
Q4 14:52
Jack Layne pass intercepted Jalen Bainer return for no gain to the SJSU 27
89.0%
+0.3
SJSU · Drive 14PUNT · 4 plays · 2 yds
Q4 14:45
Lamar Radcliffe run for 2 yds to the SJSU 29
89.0%
0.0
Q4 14:14
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Danny Scudero
89.0%
0.0
Q4 14:08
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Danny Scudero
89.0%
0.0
Q4 14:02
Trent Carrizosa punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Shawn Miller at the UNM 28
89.0%
0.0
UNM · Drive 15TD · 11 plays · 72 yds
Q4 14:02
Timeout San José State, clock 14:02
89.7%
+0.7
Q4 13:56
Jack Layne pass complete to Dorian Thomas for 15 yds to the UNM 43 for a 1ST down
89.7%
0.0
Q4 13:27
D.J. McKinney run for 4 yds to the UNM 47
89.7%
0.0
Q4 13:04
Jack Layne pass complete to Shawn Miller for 9 yds to the SJSU 44 for a 1ST down
89.7%
0.0
Q4 12:25
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 16 yds to the SJSU 28 for a 1ST down
89.7%
0.0
Q4 12:14
Damon Bankston run for 5 yds to the SJSU 23
89.3%
-0.4
Q4 11:52
Damon Bankston run for 1 yd to the SJSU 22
89.3%
0.0
Q4 11:24
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 16 yds to the SJSU 6 for a 1ST down
89.3%
0.0
Q4 11:04
D.J. McKinney run for 3 yds to the SJSU 3
89.4%
+0.1
Q4 11:04
Timeout San José State, clock 11:04
89.4%
0.0
Q4 11:02
J. Layne run for 3 yds for a TD (J. Layne pass to S. Miller for Two-Point Conversion)
80.4%
-9.0
SJSU · Drive 16PUNT · 12 plays · 41 yds
Q4 10:57
Charles Steinkamp kickoff for 50 yds , Tuli Tagovailoa-Amosa return for 1 yd to the SJSU 16
81.5%
+1.2
Q4 10:47
Steve Chavez-Soto run for no gain to the SJSU 16
81.6%
0.0
Q4 10:05
Walker Eget pass complete to Leland Smith for 6 yds to the SJSU 22
82.3%
+0.7
Q4 9:30
Walker Eget pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 9 yds to the SJSU 31 for a 1ST down
82.3%
0.0
Q4 8:52
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 13 yds to the SJSU 44 for a 1ST down
83.9%
+1.6
Q4 8:09
Steve Chavez-Soto run for no gain to the SJSU 44
84.5%
+0.6
Q4 7:31
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Leland Smith
84.5%
0.0
Q4 7:31
(07:31) PENALTY SJSU False Start (Lapuaho,Peseti) 5 yards from SJSU44 to SJSU39. NO PLAY.
84.5%
0.0
Q4 7:26
Walker Eget pass complete to Kyri Shoels for 8 yds to the SJSU 47
84.5%
0.0
Q4 6:48
(06:54) Carrizosa,Trent punt 35 yards to the UNM18 fair catch by Miller,Shawn at UNM18 PENALTY UNM Running Into The Kicker (Johnson,Dimitri) 5 yards from SJSU47 to UNM48. NO PLAY.
84.5%
0.0
Q4 6:38
Trent Carrizosa punt for 37 yds
84.5%
0.0
Q4 6:38
Trent Carrizosa punt for 37 yds
84.5%
0.0
UNM · Drive 17FG · 13 plays · 80 yds
Q4 6:24
Jack Layne pass complete to Shawn Miller for 6 yds to the UNM 12
85.7%
+1.2
Q4 6:06
Jack Layne pass complete to Damon Bankston for 10 yds to the UNM 22 for a 1ST down
85.8%
+0.1
Q4 5:46
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 5 yds to the UNM 27
85.8%
0.0
Q4 5:29
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Keagan Johnson
85.8%
0.0
Q4 5:22
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 24 yds to the SJSU 49 for a 1ST down
85.8%
0.0
Q4 4:57
Jack Layne run for 11 yds to the SJSU 38 for a 1ST down
86.3%
+0.5
Q4 4:38
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 3 yds to the SJSU 35
86.1%
-0.2
Q4 4:14
Jack Layne pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 21 yds to the SJSU 14 for a 1ST down
86.6%
+0.5
Q4 3:55
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Keagan Johnson
86.6%
0.0
Q4 3:51
Jack Layne pass incomplete to D.J. McKinney
86.6%
0.0
Q4 3:45
Jack Layne pass incomplete to Michael Buckley
86.6%
0.0
Q4 3:41
Luke Drzewiecki 31 yd FG GOOD
78.8%
-7.8
Q4 3:41
Timeout San José State, clock 03:41
85.2%
+6.4
SJSU · Drive 18END OF GAME · 14 plays · 32 yds
Q4 3:41
Charles Steinkamp kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
80.9%
-4.4
Q4 3:34
Lamar Radcliffe run for no gain to the SJSU 25
83.7%
+2.8
Q4 2:55
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 8 yds to the SJSU 33
83.7%
0.0
Q4 2:55
Timeout New Mexico, clock 02:55
85.3%
+1.6
Q4 2:38
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 2 yds to the SJSU 35 for a 1ST down
85.4%
+0.1
Q4 2:10
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 1 yd to the SJSU 36
86.0%
+0.6
Q4 2:10
Timeout New Mexico, clock 02:10
86.1%
+0.1
Q4 2:01
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
86.1%
0.0
Q4 2:00
Timeout San José State, clock 02:00
86.1%
0.0
Q4 1:54
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 3 yds to the UNM 47
86.6%
+0.5
Q4 1:54
Timeout New Mexico, clock 01:54
86.6%
0.0
Q4 1:48
Walker Eget run for 8 yds to the UNM 39 for a 1ST down
86.6%
0.0
Q4 1:17
W. Eget takes a knee
86.6%
0.0
Q4 0:00
W. Eget takes a knee
87.1%
+0.5
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q3 14:56
Mathias Brown kickoff for 61 yds , D.J. McKinney return for 13 yds to the UNM 48 New Mexico Penalty, Offensive Holding (8 Yards) to the UNM 9
+16.1
TD · Q2 9:30
Damon Bankston run for 4 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)
-14.8
TD · Q3 10:27
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 10 yds for a TD (Mathias Brown KICK)
+14.2
YardLine · model v2Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com