Try the model
NEV

Nevada 17 at Fresno State 20

FRES
2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Valley Children's Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:44 · Joe McFadden punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jordan Malau'ulu at the FRES 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 101Pregame prior+12.0Home team on offense+15.9Garbage-time factor+3.9Score differential+5.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.7Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:25: E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 12 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +4.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:32: E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 24 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +6.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:43: Carter Jones pass complete to Dakota Thomas for 15 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK) — NEV win probability +10.1 pts (now 17%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:36: Carter Jones pass complete to Caleb Ramseur for 17 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK) — NEV win probability +17.7 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:39: Timeout Nevada, clock 03:39 — FRES win probability +10.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 7 of 9NEV made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 9:37FRES 4th & 2 at FRES 10, tied
    Close callPunted · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:35NEV 4th & 5 at FRES 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    21.4%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:37FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:59NEV 4th & 12 at FRES 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    22.4%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:54FRES 4th & 3 at NEV 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    74.5%−0.3
    62% to make
    Punt
    72.6%−2.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:46FRES 4th & 3 at NEV 3, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.9%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    67.4%−5.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:22NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:22NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:19FRES 4th & 7 at NEV 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    76.7%−3.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:58NEV 4th & 5 at NEV 39, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:39FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 37, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:44NEV 4th & 6 at NEV 42, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:35FRES 4th & 16 at FRES 9, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−1.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:35NEV 4th & 4 at FRES 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    6.0%−1.6
    34% to make
    Punt
    6.3%−1.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:44FRES 4th & 12 at FRES 23, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−2.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:48FRES 4th & 21 at FRES 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−8.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:42NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NEV made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 8:25FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:32FRES Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:43NEV Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:36NEV Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 1:1480% → 80%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
79.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jake Tarwater for 12 yds to the FRES 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
79.8%
Bryson Donelson run for 3 yds to the FRES 40Similar
Q1 13:46
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-1
79.6%
E.J. Warner pass intercepted Murvin Kenion III return for 1 yd to the FRES 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 1:5421% → 21%
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
79.4%
Caleb Ramseur run for 5 yds to the FRES 40Similar
Q1 13:46
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+4
79.4%
Ky Woods run for 4 yds to the FRES 36Similar
Q1 13:46
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+1
79.4%
Dominic Kelley run for 1 yd to the FRES 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
78.7%
Chubba Purdy pass intercepted Camryn Bracha return for no gain to the FRES 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:1579% → 78%
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
79.0%
E.J. Warner run for 3 yds to the FRES 5Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+1
79.0%
Rayshon Luke run for 1 yd to the FRES 6Similar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 6
OWN 6
+4
78.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 4 yds to the FRES 10Similar
Q1 9:37
4TH & 2
OWN 10
0
78.1%
Nick Verdugo punt for 23 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4MISSED FG
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:0222% → 22%
Q1 9:37
1ST & 11
OPP 33
-2
77.9%
Herschel Turner run for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 35Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 13
OPP 35
-2
78.0%
Herschel Turner run for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 37Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 15
OPP 37
+10
78.4%
Chubba Purdy run for 10 yds to the FRES 27Similar
Q1 7:35
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+49
77.6%
Joe McFadden 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5878% → 77%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
78.0%
Bryson Donelson run for 5 yds to the FRES 32Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+3
78.2%
Bryson Donelson run for 3 yds to the FRES 35Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 2
OWN 35
-5
78.1%
E.J. Warner sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the FRES 30Similar
Q1 5:37
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
77.0%
Nick Verdugo punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Marcus Bellon at the NEV 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6FG
8 plays · 42 yds · 3:3823% → 25%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
77.0%
Ky Woods run for 17 yds to the FRES 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
76.5%
AJ Bianco pass incomplete to Dakota ThomasSimilar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
76.6%
AJ Bianco run for no gain to the FRES 47Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+27
76.9%
Caleb Ramseur run for 27 yds to the FRES 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
76.3%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to AJ BiancoSimilar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+2
76.3%
Caleb Ramseur run for 2 yds to the FRES 18Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+4
76.6%
AJ Bianco pass complete to Herschel Turner for 4 yds to the FRES 22Similar
Q1 1:59
4TH & 12
OPP 22
+39
75.0%
Joe McFadden 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7DOWNS
6 plays · 48 yds · 2:0575% → 75%
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+41
75.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Ezekiel Avit for 41 yds to the NEV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
76.6%
Rayshon Luke run for 4 yds to the NEV 30Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+3
76.7%
Rayshon Luke run for 3 yds to the NEV 27Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 27
0
75.5%
Bryson Donelson run for no gain to the NEV 27Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 3
OPP 27
0
75.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Rayshon Luke for no gain to the NEV 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8FUMBLE
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
73.6%
Herschel Turner run for 4 yds to the NEV 31 Herschel Turner fumbled, recovered by FRES Martin OwusuSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9FG
9 plays · 28 yds · 5:0176% → 76%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
76.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 5 yds to the NEV 26Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+3
76.1%
Rayshon Luke run for 3 yds to the NEV 23Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+7
75.5%
Bryson Donelson run for 7 yds to the NEV 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
76.1%
Bryson Donelson run for 7 yds to the NEV 9Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+8
76.1%
Bryson Donelson run for 8 yds to the NEV 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
76.1%
Brandon Ramirez run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEV 2Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
76.1%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Josiah FreemanSimilar
Q2 14:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
75.5%
Bryson Donelson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEV 3Similar
Q2 9:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
75.6%
Dylan Lynch 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.1%
Carter Jones pass intercepted K'Vion Thunderbird return for no gain to the NEV 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11TD
3 plays · 29 yds · 1:1577% → 82%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
77.0%
E.J. Warner run for 5 yds to the NEV 24 for a 1ST down Nevada Penalty, Defensive Holding (Nathaneal Floyd) to the NEV 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
77.0%
Bryson Donelson run for 2 yds to the NEV 12Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
81.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 12 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:0320% → 20%
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
79.8%
Caleb Ramseur run for 4 yds to the NEV 29Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
79.5%
Chubba Purdy run for 3 yds to the NEV 32Similar
Q2 8:25
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
79.8%
Chubba Purdy run for 2 yds to the NEV 34Similar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
80.4%
Joe McFadden punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jordan Malau'ulu at the FRES 20Similar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
80.4%
Bailey Ettridge punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jordan Malau'ulu at the FRES 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13FG
7 plays · 71 yds · 3:0380% → 81%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+68
79.9%
Rayshon Luke run for 68 yds to the NEV 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
81.5%
Bryson Donelson run for 1 yd to the NEV 21Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+3
81.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Rayshon Luke for 3 yds to the NEV 24Similar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 12
OPP 24
+10
80.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 10 yds to the NEV 14Similar
Q2 3:23
4TH & 2
OPP 14
-5
80.3%
(03:30) Shotgun Ramirez,Brandon rush middle for 14 yards gain to the NEV00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 03:23 PENALTY FST False Start 5 yards from NEV14 to NEV19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:19
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+38
81.2%
Dylan Lynch 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14INT
9 plays · 37 yds · 1:4618% → 20%
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
82.3%
Caleb Ramseur run for 4 yds to the NEV 29Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
81.9%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Nakian JacksonSimilar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+14
82.5%
Carter Jones pass complete to Nakian Jackson for 14 yds to the NEV 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
81.4%
Caleb Ramseur run for 2 yds to the NEV 45Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+5
80.9%
Caleb Ramseur run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 3
50
+12
80.4%
Carter Jones pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 12 yds to the FRES 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-4
79.8%
Chubba Purdy pass intercepted Simeon Harris return for 4 yds to the FRES 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 1:0182% → 92%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
81.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Brown for 5 yds to the FRES 39Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+6
82.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 6 yds to the FRES 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+20
82.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 20 yds to the NEV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
83.3%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Jordan Malau'uluSimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+11
83.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Rayshon Luke for 11 yds to the NEV 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
92.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 24 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.6%
Caleb Ramseur run for no gain to the NEV 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:5611% → 9%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-4
89.3%
Ky Woods run for a loss of 4 yards to the NEV 13Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 14
OWN 13
+6
89.6%
Caleb Ramseur run for 6 yds to the NEV 19Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+15
89.6%
(13:30) Shotgun Jones,Carter pass incomplete deep left to Thomas,Dakota thrown to NEV45 PENALTY FST Pass Interference (Hamilton,Al'zillion) 15 yards from NEV19 to NEV34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
88.9%
Carter Jones run for 6 yds to the NEV 40Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 4
OWN 40
-1
88.4%
Dominic Kelley run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEV 39Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
89.0%
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Nakian JacksonSimilar
Q3 11:58
4TH & 5
OWN 39
+7
90.7%
Joe McFadden punt for 36 yds , Jordan Malau'ulu returns for 7 yds to the FRES 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1991% → 92%
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
91.1%
Rayshon Luke run for 1 yd to the FRES 33Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+4
91.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 4 yds to the FRES 37Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
90.9%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Bryson DonelsonSimilar
Q3 10:39
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
92.1%
Nick Verdugo punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Marcus Bellon at the NEV 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:5510% → 9%
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.4%
Carter Jones pass complete to Jett Carpenter for 2 yds to the NEV 27Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
90.4%
Caleb Ramseur run for 7 yds to the NEV 34Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
89.8%
Dominic Kelley run for 4 yds to the NEV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
89.7%
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Nathaneal FloydSimilar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
89.9%
Dominic Kelley run for 4 yds to the NEV 42Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
89.9%
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Nathaneal FloydSimilar
Q3 7:44
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
90.7%
Joe McFadden punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jordan Malau'ulu at the FRES 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 2:0993% → 93%
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
93.4%
Bryson Donelson run for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 13Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 12
OWN 13
-9
93.3%
E.J. Warner sacked by Jonathan Maldonado for a loss of 9 yards to the FRES 4Similar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 21
OWN 4
+5
92.9%
Rayshon Luke run for 5 yds to the FRES 9Similar
Q3 5:35
4TH & 16
OWN 9
0
92.9%
Nick Verdugo punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21TD
11 plays · 46 yds · 4:529% → 17%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
91.5%
Dominic Kelley run for 3 yds to the FRES 43Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+2
91.5%
Carter Jones pass complete to Jace Henry for 2 yds to the FRES 41Similar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+1
91.7%
Carter Jones pass complete to Nathaneal Floyd for 1 yd to the FRES 40Similar
Q3 5:35
4TH & 4
OPP 40
+5
91.7%
Carter Jones pass complete to Caleb Ramseur for 5 yds to the FRES 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
91.0%
Caleb Ramseur run for 2 yds to the FRES 33Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+8
90.9%
Caleb Ramseur run for 8 yds to the FRES 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
90.6%
Caleb Ramseur run for 3 yds to the FRES 22Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+6
90.6%
Carter Jones pass complete to Nathaneal Floyd for 6 yds to the FRES 16Similar
Q3 1:28
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+1
93.4%
Chubba Purdy run for 1 yd to the FRES 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
83.3%
Carter Jones pass complete to Dakota Thomas for 15 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:1688% → 86%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
87.6%
Rayshon Luke run for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
87.5%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Rayshon LukeSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
86.7%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Richie Anderson IIISimilar
Q4 14:44
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
86.2%
Nick Verdugo punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Marcus Bellon at the NEV 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 2:0812% → 33%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+45
87.6%
Carter Jones pass complete to Nate Burleson II for 45 yds to the FRES 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
84.6%
Caleb Ramseur run for 1 yd to the FRES 19Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+2
84.6%
Carter Jones run for 2 yds to the FRES 17Similar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+17
67.0%
Carter Jones pass complete to Caleb Ramseur for 17 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 1:4874% → 72%
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.2%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
73.9%
(12:29) Shotgun Warner,E.J. pass incomplete short right to Malauulu,Jordan thrown to FST43 PENALTY FST Holding (Fullwood,Rolan) 10 yards from FST25 to FST15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+5
73.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 5 yds to the FRES 20Similar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-6
72.1%
E.J. Warner sacked by Jonathan Maldonado for a loss of 6 yards to the FRES 14Similar
Q4 10:48
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
71.8%
Nick Verdugo punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:0631% → 29%
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
69.4%
Caleb Ramseur run for 7 yds to the NEV 44Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+2
66.7%
Carter Jones pass complete to Daijon Calimon for 2 yds to the NEV 46Similar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 1
OWN 46
-6
66.9%
Caleb Ramseur run for a loss of 6 yards to the NEV 40Similar
Q4 8:42
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
71.4%
Bailey Ettridge punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jordan Malau'ulu at the FRES 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 26END OF GAME
20 plays · 68 yds · 8:4276% → 96%
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
75.6%
Bryson Donelson run for 1 yd to the FRES 17Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+1
75.2%
Bryson Donelson run for 1 yd to the FRES 18Similar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+13
73.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 13 yds to the FRES 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
76.0%
Shotgun Luke,Rayshon rush middle for 0 yards to the FST31 (Floyd,Nathaneal) PENALTY FST Holding 10 yards from FST31 to FST21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 20
OWN 21
+14
75.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 14 yds to the FRES 35Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+7
76.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jake Tarwater for 7 yds to the FRES 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
78.5%
(05:31) PENALTY FST False Start 5 yards from FST42 to FST37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+4
76.0%
Bryson Donelson run for 4 yds to the FRES 41Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 11
OWN 41
0
77.2%
E.J. Warner pass incomplete to Bryson DonelsonSimilar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 11
OWN 41
+11
75.3%
E.J. Warner run for 11 yds to the NEV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
86.1%
Brandon Ramirez run for 6 yds to the NEV 42Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+10
86.1%
Brandon Ramirez run for 10 yds to the NEV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
86.8%
Brandon Ramirez run for 5 yds to the NEV 27Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+18
86.8%
Brandon Ramirez run for 18 yds to the NEV 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
91.1%
E. Warner takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
-2
91.1%
E. Warner takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
-3
95.9%
E. Warner takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:36
Carter Jones pass complete to Caleb Ramseur for 17 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)
-17.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:39
Timeout Nevada, clock 03:39
+10.8
TD · Q3 0:43
Carter Jones pass complete to Dakota Thomas for 15 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)
-10.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com