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AF

Air Force 31 at Navy 34

NAVY
2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · (00:31) PENALTY USAFA Delay Of Game (Zdroik,Payton) 5 yards from USAFA24 to USAFA19. NO PLAY.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:58: Liam Szarka run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK) — AF win probability +13.5 pts (now 36%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:52: Blake Horvath run for 59 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +12.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:55: Liam Szarka pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 18 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK) — AF win probability +18.5 pts (now 42%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:55: Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 60 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +24.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:59: Liam Szarka pass complete to Jonah Dawson for 53 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK) — AF win probability +27.3 pts (now 45%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 6AF made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 11:22NAVY 4th & 4 at AF 21, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.0%−<0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    80.6%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:24AF 4th & 3 at NAVY 18, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.7%−0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    20.2%−1.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:08NAVY 4th & 10 at AF 39, down 4
    Close callPunted · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    74.8%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:29AF 4th & 4 at NAVY 7, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.4%−0.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    23.4%−4.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:48AF 4th & 14 at NAVY 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:54AF 4th & 7 at AF 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:00NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 19, up 7
    Close callPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:29AF 4th & 1 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.5%−2.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:16NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    67.5%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:47NAVY 4th & 6 at AF 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−0.9
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.3%
    80% to make
    Punt
    40.3%−20.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:40NAVY 4th & 1 at AF 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    83.6%−6.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    77.4%−12.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:14AF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:46NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:02NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:58AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:52NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:55AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:55NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.3%−0.5
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:59AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1FG
8 plays · 54 yds · 3:1984% → 84%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+36
84.3%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 36 yds to the AF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
84.2%
Brandon Chatman run for 7 yds to the AF 32Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+5
84.1%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Cody Howard for 5 yds to the AF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
84.0%
Blake Horvath run for a loss of 2 yards to the AF 29Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 12
OPP 29
0
83.8%
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Nathan KentSimilar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 12
OPP 29
+8
83.7%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Cody Howard for 8 yds to the AF 21Similar
Q1 11:22
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+39
83.6%
Nathan Kirkwood 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5517% → 18%
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+61
83.5%
Liam Szarka run for 61 yds to the NAVY 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
83.1%
Dylan Carson run for 6 yds to the NAVY 8Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+1
82.9%
Liam Szarka run for 1 yd to the NAVY 7Similar
Q1 9:14
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+7
82.0%
Liam Szarka run for 7 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3FUMBLE
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:3782% → 82%
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
82.1%
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the NAVY 24Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+14
81.9%
Blake Horvath run for 14 yds to the NAVY 38 Blake Horvath fumbled, recovered by AF Mikhail SeikenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4MISSED FG
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:5019% → 19%
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
81.4%
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the NAVY 35Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+10
80.9%
(07:46) No Huddle Szarka,Liam pass incomplete deep middle to Dawson,Jonah thrown to Navy00 PENALTY Navy Holding (Hamilton,Phillip) 10 yards from Navy35 to Navy25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
80.9%
Liam Szarka run for 7 yds to the NAVY 18Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 3
OPP 18
0
80.6%
Dylan Carson run for no gain to the NAVY 18Similar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 3
OPP 18
0
80.5%
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Quin SmithSimilar
Q1 6:24
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+35
80.7%
Jacob Medina 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 41 yds · 6:1181% → 78%
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
80.8%
Brandon Chatman run for no gain to the NAVY 20Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
80.5%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 2 yds to the NAVY 22Similar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+9
79.9%
Blake Horvath run for 9 yds to the NAVY 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
80.0%
Jackson Gutierrez run for 5 yds to the NAVY 36Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+14
80.3%
Blake Horvath run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
50
+3
80.3%
Blake Horvath run for 3 yds to the AF 47Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+8
80.1%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 8 yds to the AF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
79.8%
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Joshua GuerinSimilar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
79.8%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the AF 37Similar
Q1 0:53
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+3
79.3%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 3 yds to the AF 34Similar
Q1 0:15
4TH & 5
OPP 34
-5
78.7%
PENALTY Navy Delay Of Game 5 yards from USAFA34 to USAFA39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:08
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
78.0%
Jacob Carlson punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6FG
10 plays · 87 yds · 4:3122% → 29%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-4
78.4%
Kade Frew run for a loss of 4 yards to the AF 2Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 14
OWN 2
+7
78.3%
Liam Szarka run for 7 yds to the AF 9Similar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 7
OWN 9
+8
78.3%
Liam Szarka run for 8 yds to the AF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
77.4%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the AF 19Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+68
77.1%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 68 yds to the NAVY 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
74.8%
Dylan Carson run for no gain to the NAVY 13Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+6
74.4%
Kade Frew run for 6 yds to the NAVY 7Similar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 4
OPP 7
0
74.2%
Kade Frew run for no gain to the NAVY 7Similar
Q2 10:29
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+24
71.0%
Jacob Medina 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 1:3174% → 80%
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
73.8%
(10:19) Shotgun Tecza,Alex rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Navy48 (Hubert,Isaac) PENALTY Navy False Start 5 yards from Navy47 to Navy42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+36
72.7%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Nathan Kent for 36 yds to the AF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
75.0%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 9 yds to the AF 13Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 1
OPP 13
-6
74.2%
Blake Horvath run for a loss of 6 yards to the AF 19 Blake Horvath fumbled, recovered by AF Blake HorvathSimilar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+19
80.0%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 19 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 3:5123% → 25%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
76.9%
Liam Szarka run for 3 yds to the AF 28Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
75.9%
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Cade HarrisSimilar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+13
76.2%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 13 yds to the AF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
74.3%
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Jonah DawsonSimilar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
74.6%
Liam Szarka run for no gain to the AF 41Similar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+15
74.9%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Quin Smith for 15 yds to the NAVY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
72.7%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Cade Harris for 3 yds to the NAVY 47Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 13
OPP 47
0
73.4%
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Cade HarrisSimilar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 13
OPP 47
-1
74.1%
Liam Szarka run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 48Similar
Q2 4:48
4TH & 14
OPP 48
0
74.8%
Luke Freer punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Brandon Chatman at the NAVY 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9TD
3 plays · 81 yds · 0:3777% → 84%
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
76.9%
Brandon Chatman run for 1 yd to the NAVY 20Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+80
83.5%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 80 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
83.8%
PENALTY USAFA Personal Foul (Fletcher,Blake) 15 yards from Navy35 to Navy50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:5416% → 17%
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+16
83.7%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 16 yds to the AF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
82.9%
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the AF 48Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 6
OWN 48
0
82.2%
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Bruin FleischmannSimilar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 6
OWN 48
-1
82.5%
Liam Szarka sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the AF 47Similar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
83.4%
Luke Freer punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Brandon Chatman at the NAVY 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:4983% → 82%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
82.8%
Blake Horvath run for 3 yds to the NAVY 13Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 7
OWN 13
0
82.6%
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Cody HowardSimilar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 7
OWN 13
-5
82.2%
PENALTY Navy Delay Of Game (Horvath,Blake) 5 yards from Navy13 to Navy08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 16
OWN 4
+15
82.1%
Blake Horvath run for 15 yds to the NAVY 19Similar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 1
OWN 19
0
81.7%
Jacob Carlson punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Cade Harris at the AF 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5316% → 18%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
83.6%
Liam Szarka run for 7 yds to the AF 36Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+8
82.0%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Kade Frew for 8 yds to the AF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-7
82.4%
Liam Szarka sacked by Landon Robinson for a loss of 7 yards to the AF 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 4:5719% → 36%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
81.4%
Liam Szarka run for 8 yds to the AF 38Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+3
80.0%
Liam Szarka run for 3 yds to the AF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
80.5%
Kade Frew run for 1 yd to the AF 42Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+2
80.4%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the AF 44Similar
Q3 12:31
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+6
80.6%
Liam Szarka run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:29
4TH & 1
50
+37
80.3%
Kemper Hodges pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 37 yds to the NAVY 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
77.4%
Kade Frew run for 1 yd to the NAVY 12Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+10
77.3%
(10:33) Shotgun Szarka,Liam pass incomplete short right to Smith,Quin thrown to Navy00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Navy Pass Interference (Ross,Justin) 10 yards from Navy12 to Navy02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
77.3%
Kemper Hodges run for 1 yd to the NAVY 1Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.8%
Liam Szarka run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14TD
9 plays · 97 yds · 3:5771% → 85%
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
70.6%
Blake Horvath run for 5 yds to the NAVY 8Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+23
70.2%
Jackson Gutierrez run for 23 yds to the NAVY 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
70.9%
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Brandon ChatmanSimilar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
70.6%
Jackson Gutierrez run for 3 yds to the NAVY 34Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+5
69.4%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Nathan Kent for 5 yds to the NAVY 39Similar
Q3 7:16
4TH & 2
OWN 39
+3
69.4%
Blake Horvath run for 3 yds to the NAVY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
71.9%
Brandon Chatman run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 41Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+59
84.9%
Blake Horvath run for 59 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:4819% → 42%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
80.7%
Liam Szarka run for 13 yds to the AF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
79.6%
Cade Harris run for 5 yds to the AF 43Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+5
78.9%
Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the AF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
78.7%
Kade Frew run for 5 yds to the NAVY 47Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+8
78.0%
Liam Szarka run for 8 yds to the NAVY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
77.9%
Terrence Gist run for 10 yds to the NAVY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
75.9%
Liam Szarka run for 5 yds to the NAVY 24Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+5
77.1%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Cade Harris for 5 yds to the NAVY 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
76.9%
Kade Frew run for 1 yd to the NAVY 18Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
76.8%
Liam Szarka run for no gain to the NAVY 18Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+18
58.3%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 18 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16TD
5 plays · 71 yds · 1:4666% → 89%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
66.3%
Brandon Chatman run for 1 yd to the NAVY 30Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+4
65.7%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Jackson Gutierrez for 4 yds to the NAVY 34Similar
Q4 13:29
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+6
64.4%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 6 yds to the NAVY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
88.8%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 60 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4616% → 45%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
83.9%
Liam Szarka run for 11 yds to the AF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
83.3%
Cade Harris run for 9 yds to the AF 45Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
81.4%
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Bruin FleischmannSimilar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
82.1%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the AF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
54.9%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Jonah Dawson for 53 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 3:5864% → 76%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
63.7%
Blake Horvath run for 3 yds to the NAVY 26Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+42
63.9%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 27 yds to the AF 47 for a 1ST down Air Force Penalty, (15 Yards) to the AF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
69.8%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Shane Reynolds for 3 yds to the AF 29Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+4
69.6%
Shane Reynolds run for 4 yds to the AF 25Similar
Q4 8:17
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+4
67.4%
Shane Reynolds run for 4 yds to the AF 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
69.1%
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Cody HowardSimilar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
69.1%
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Cody HowardSimilar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+9
66.6%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Joshua Guerin for 9 yds to the AF 12Similar
Q4 6:51
4TH & 1
OPP 12
-5
63.6%
PENALTY Navy False Start 5 yards from USAFA12 to USAFA17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:47
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+34
75.5%
Nathan Kirkwood 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19FUMBLE
9 plays · 24 yds · 3:3530% → 35%
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.3%
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Cade HarrisSimilar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
70.8%
Liam Szarka run for 7 yds to the AF 32Similar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
69.8%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Cade Harris for 5 yds to the AF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
68.0%
Liam Szarka run for 1 yd to the AF 38Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+14
67.7%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 14 yds to the NAVY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
62.7%
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Jonah DawsonSimilar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+1
63.9%
Liam Szarka run for 1 yd to the NAVY 47Similar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 9
OPP 47
-4
65.4%
Liam Szarka run for a loss of 4 yards to the AF 49 Liam Szarka fumbled, recovered by AF Landon RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20END OF GAME
11 plays · 30 yds · 2:3788% → 96%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
87.7%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 4 yds to the AF 45Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 6
OPP 45
-1
88.2%
Navy Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 2:08
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+8
86.8%
Blake Horvath run for 8 yds to the AF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
90.2%
Blake Horvath run for 1 yd to the AF 38Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+7
90.1%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 7 yds to the AF 31Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+1
90.0%
Blake Horvath run for 1 yd to the AF 30Similar
Q4 1:40
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+8
89.0%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Jackson Gutierrez for 8 yds to the AF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
93.5%
(01:07) Kneel down by Navy at USAFA24 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 24
+5
96.2%
(00:31) PENALTY USAFA Delay Of Game (Zdroik,Payton) 5 yards from USAFA24 to USAFA19. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:59
Liam Szarka pass complete to Jonah Dawson for 53 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
-27.3
TD · Q4 12:55
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 60 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
+24.5
TD · Q4 14:55
Liam Szarka pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 18 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
-18.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com