AF
Air Force 31 at Navy 34
NAVY2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey play
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NAVY · Drive 1FG · 8 plays · 54 yds
Q1 14:54
Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 60 yds , Isaiah Bryant return for 20 yds to the NAVY 25
77.4%
0.0
Q1 14:41
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 36 yds to the AF 39 for a 1ST down
79.3%
+2.0
Q1 14:02
Brandon Chatman run for 7 yds to the AF 32
80.9%
+1.6
Q1 13:18
Blake Horvath pass complete to Cody Howard for 5 yds to the AF 27 for a 1ST down
80.9%
0.0
Q1 12:43
Blake Horvath run for a loss of 2 yards to the AF 29
80.9%
0.0
Q1 12:07
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Nathan Kent
80.9%
0.0
Q1 11:59
Blake Horvath pass complete to Cody Howard for 8 yds to the AF 21
80.8%
-0.2
Q1 11:22
Nathan Kirkwood 39 yd FG GOOD
83.6%
+2.9
AF · Drive 2TD · 6 plays · 75 yds
Q1 11:22
Lance Gossett kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
83.2%
-0.4
Q1 11:09
Liam Szarka run for 61 yds to the NAVY 14 for a 1ST down
81.1%
-2.1
Q1 10:35
Timeout Air Force, clock 10:35
78.1%
-3.0
Q1 10:30
Dylan Carson run for 6 yds to the NAVY 8
78.1%
0.0
Q1 9:52
Liam Szarka run for 1 yd to the NAVY 7
78.1%
0.0
Q1 9:14
Liam Szarka run for 7 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
67.1%
-11.0
NAVY · Drive 3FUMBLE · 3 plays · 17 yds
Q1 9:13
Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 44 yds , Liam Barbee return for no gain to the NAVY 21
68.9%
+1.8
Q1 9:01
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the NAVY 24
72.9%
+4.0
Q1 8:24
Blake Horvath run for 14 yds to the NAVY 38 Blake Horvath fumbled, recovered by AF Mikhail Seiken
72.6%
-0.3
AF · Drive 4MISSED FG · 6 plays · 20 yds
Q1 8:14
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the NAVY 35
66.7%
-5.8
Q1 7:41
(07:46) No Huddle Szarka,Liam pass incomplete deep middle to Dawson,Jonah thrown to Navy00 PENALTY Navy Holding (Hamilton,Phillip) 10 yards from Navy35 to Navy25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
66.7%
0.0
Q1 7:35
Liam Szarka run for 7 yds to the NAVY 18
66.7%
0.0
Q1 6:59
Dylan Carson run for no gain to the NAVY 18
66.7%
0.0
Q1 6:29
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Quin Smith
65.4%
-1.3
Q1 6:24
Jacob Medina 35 yd FG MISSED
66.1%
+0.7
NAVY · Drive 5PUNT · 12 plays · 41 yds
Q1 6:19
Brandon Chatman run for no gain to the NAVY 20
71.4%
+5.3
Q1 5:37
Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 2 yds to the NAVY 22
71.0%
-0.4
Q1 4:53
Blake Horvath run for 9 yds to the NAVY 31 for a 1ST down
71.0%
0.0
Q1 4:12
Jackson Gutierrez run for 5 yds to the NAVY 36
71.0%
0.0
Q1 3:38
Blake Horvath run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
70.8%
-0.2
Q1 3:01
Blake Horvath run for 3 yds to the AF 47
71.6%
+0.8
Q1 2:21
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 8 yds to the AF 39 for a 1ST down
72.3%
+0.7
Q1 1:40
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Joshua Guerin
72.2%
-0.1
Q1 1:35
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the AF 37
72.2%
0.0
Q1 0:53
Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 3 yds to the AF 34
72.0%
-0.2
Q1 0:15
PENALTY Navy Delay Of Game 5 yards from USAFA34 to USAFA39. NO PLAY.
71.4%
-0.7
Q1 0:08
Jacob Carlson punt for 33 yds
71.4%
0.0
AF · Drive 6FG · 10 plays · 87 yds
Q1 0:00
Kade Frew run for a loss of 4 yards to the AF 2
65.3%
-6.1
Q2 14:44
Liam Szarka run for 7 yds to the AF 9
65.3%
0.0
Q2 14:16
Liam Szarka run for 8 yds to the AF 17 for a 1ST down
65.3%
0.0
Q2 13:45
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the AF 19
65.3%
0.0
Q2 13:00
Liam Szarka pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 68 yds to the NAVY 13 for a 1ST down
65.3%
0.0
Q2 12:24
Dylan Carson run for no gain to the NAVY 13
63.4%
-1.9
Q2 11:45
Kade Frew run for 6 yds to the NAVY 7
63.3%
0.0
Q2 11:08
Timeout Air Force, clock 11:08
63.2%
-0.1
Q2 10:58
Kade Frew run for no gain to the NAVY 7
63.2%
0.0
Q2 10:29
Jacob Medina 24 yd FG GOOD
53.5%
-9.7
NAVY · Drive 7TD · 6 plays · 53 yds
Q2 10:21
Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 61 yds , Isaiah Bryant return for 43 yds to the NAVY 47
54.8%
+1.3
Q2 10:17
(10:19) Shotgun Tecza,Alex rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Navy48 (Hubert,Isaac) PENALTY Navy False Start 5 yards from Navy47 to Navy42. NO PLAY.
58.0%
+3.2
Q2 10:14
Blake Horvath pass complete to Nathan Kent for 36 yds to the AF 22 for a 1ST down
57.3%
-0.7
Q2 10:03
Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 9 yds to the AF 13
59.6%
+2.3
Q2 9:10
Blake Horvath run for a loss of 6 yards to the AF 19 Blake Horvath fumbled, recovered by AF Blake Horvath
59.6%
0.0
Q2 8:46
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 19 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
77.0%
+17.3
AF · Drive 8PUNT · 11 plays · 27 yds
Q2 8:46
Lance Gossett kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
75.5%
-1.5
Q2 8:39
Liam Szarka run for 3 yds to the AF 28
72.1%
-3.4
Q2 8:07
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Cade Harris
69.9%
-2.2
Q2 7:50
Liam Szarka pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 13 yds to the AF 41 for a 1ST down
69.9%
0.0
Q2 7:24
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Jonah Dawson
68.7%
-1.2
Q2 7:20
Liam Szarka run for no gain to the AF 41
68.7%
0.0
Q2 6:38
Liam Szarka pass complete to Quin Smith for 15 yds to the NAVY 44 for a 1ST down
68.7%
0.0
Q2 5:59
Liam Szarka pass complete to Cade Harris for 3 yds to the NAVY 47
67.8%
-0.9
Q2 5:30
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Cade Harris
67.8%
0.0
Q2 5:23
Liam Szarka run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 48
67.8%
0.0
Q2 4:48
Luke Freer punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Brandon Chatman at the NAVY 19
68.1%
+0.3
NAVY · Drive 9TD · 3 plays · 81 yds
Q2 4:39
Brandon Chatman run for 1 yd to the NAVY 20
75.9%
+7.8
Q2 4:02
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 80 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
86.3%
+10.4
Q2 4:02
PENALTY USAFA Personal Foul (Fletcher,Blake) 15 yards from Navy35 to Navy50. NO PLAY.
86.3%
0.0
AF · Drive 10PUNT · 7 plays · 19 yds
Q2 3:56
Nathan Kirkwood kickoff for 46 yds , Kade Frew return for 24 yds to the AF 28
86.8%
+0.5
Q2 3:48
Liam Szarka pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 16 yds to the AF 44 for a 1ST down
84.6%
-2.2
Q2 3:19
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the AF 48
83.9%
-0.8
Q2 2:47
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Bruin Fleischmann
83.4%
-0.4
Q2 2:40
Liam Szarka sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the AF 47
83.4%
0.0
Q2 2:00
Timeout Navy, clock 02:00
83.1%
-0.3
Q2 1:54
Luke Freer punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Brandon Chatman at the NAVY 10
83.1%
0.0
NAVY · Drive 11PUNT · 6 plays · 9 yds
Q2 1:49
Blake Horvath run for 3 yds to the NAVY 13
85.2%
+2.1
Q2 1:13
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Cody Howard
85.2%
0.0
Q2 1:13
PENALTY Navy Delay Of Game (Horvath,Blake) 5 yards from Navy13 to Navy08. NO PLAY.
85.2%
0.0
Q2 1:06
Blake Horvath run for 15 yds to the NAVY 19
85.2%
0.0
Q2 1:06
Timeout Air Force, clock 01:06
84.9%
-0.3
Q2 1:00
Jacob Carlson punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Cade Harris at the AF 29
84.9%
0.0
AF · Drive 12END OF HALF · 4 plays · 8 yds
Q2 0:53
Liam Szarka run for 7 yds to the AF 36
83.6%
-1.3
Q2 0:30
Liam Szarka pass complete to Kade Frew for 8 yds to the AF 44 for a 1ST down
83.6%
-0.1
Q2 0:00
Liam Szarka sacked by Landon Robinson for a loss of 7 yards to the AF 37
81.5%
-2.0
Q3 15:00
Lance Gossett kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback Navy Penalty, Defensive Offside (Nolan McCamy)
86.1%
+4.6
AF · Drive 13TD · 10 plays · 70 yds
Q3 14:55
Liam Szarka run for 8 yds to the AF 38
83.5%
-2.6
Q3 14:21
Liam Szarka run for 3 yds to the AF 41 for a 1ST down
83.2%
-0.3
Q3 13:45
Kade Frew run for 1 yd to the AF 42
82.8%
-0.4
Q3 13:08
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the AF 44
82.7%
-0.1
Q3 12:31
Liam Szarka run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line
82.4%
-0.3
Q3 11:29
Kemper Hodges pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 37 yds to the NAVY 13 for a 1ST down
82.2%
-0.1
Q3 11:01
Kade Frew run for 1 yd to the NAVY 12
81.3%
-0.9
Q3 10:31
(10:33) Shotgun Szarka,Liam pass incomplete short right to Smith,Quin thrown to Navy00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Navy Pass Interference (Ross,Justin) 10 yards from Navy12 to Navy02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
81.3%
0.0
Q3 10:21
Kemper Hodges run for 1 yd to the NAVY 1
81.3%
0.0
Q3 9:58
Liam Szarka run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
64.6%
-16.7
NAVY · Drive 14TD · 9 plays · 97 yds
Q3 9:57
Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 63 yds , Isaiah Bryant return for 1 yd to the NAVY 3
67.0%
+2.4
Q3 9:49
Blake Horvath run for 5 yds to the NAVY 8
73.4%
+6.4
Q3 9:12
Jackson Gutierrez run for 23 yds to the NAVY 31 for a 1ST down
73.4%
0.0
Q3 8:40
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Brandon Chatman
73.4%
0.0
Q3 8:33
Jackson Gutierrez run for 3 yds to the NAVY 34
73.3%
-0.1
Q3 7:52
Blake Horvath pass complete to Nathan Kent for 5 yds to the NAVY 39
73.3%
0.0
Q3 7:16
Blake Horvath run for 3 yds to the NAVY 42 for a 1ST down
73.4%
0.0
Q3 6:39
Brandon Chatman run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 41
74.1%
+0.7
Q3 5:52
Blake Horvath run for 59 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
87.1%
+13.1
AF · Drive 15TD · 12 plays · 75 yds
Q3 5:52
Lance Gossett kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
86.8%
-0.3
Q3 5:43
Liam Szarka run for 13 yds to the AF 38 for a 1ST down
82.8%
-4.0
Q3 5:13
Cade Harris run for 5 yds to the AF 43
82.4%
-0.4
Q3 4:37
Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the AF 48 for a 1ST down
81.3%
-1.1
Q3 4:03
Kade Frew run for 5 yds to the NAVY 47
80.6%
-0.8
Q3 3:19
Liam Szarka run for 8 yds to the NAVY 39 for a 1ST down
82.6%
+2.0
Q3 2:33
Terrence Gist run for 10 yds to the NAVY 29 for a 1ST down
82.2%
-0.4
Q3 1:59
Liam Szarka run for 5 yds to the NAVY 24
81.8%
-0.4
Q3 1:09
Liam Szarka pass complete to Cade Harris for 5 yds to the NAVY 19 for a 1ST down
83.1%
+1.3
Q3 0:39
Kade Frew run for 1 yd to the NAVY 18
83.1%
0.0
Q3 0:00
Liam Szarka run for no gain to the NAVY 18
83.1%
0.0
Q4 14:55
Liam Szarka pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 18 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
62.2%
-20.9
NAVY · Drive 16TD · 5 plays · 71 yds
Q4 14:50
Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 57 yds , Isaiah Bryant return for 21 yds to the NAVY 29
64.6%
+2.4
Q4 14:41
Brandon Chatman run for 1 yd to the NAVY 30
70.8%
+6.2
Q4 14:02
Blake Horvath pass complete to Jackson Gutierrez for 4 yds to the NAVY 34
70.8%
0.0
Q4 13:29
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 6 yds to the NAVY 40 for a 1ST down
70.8%
0.0
Q4 12:55
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 60 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
88.9%
+18.1
AF · Drive 17TD · 6 plays · 75 yds
Q4 12:55
Lance Gossett kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
88.8%
-0.2
Q4 12:45
Liam Szarka run for 11 yds to the AF 36 for a 1ST down
87.7%
-1.1
Q4 12:14
Cade Harris run for 9 yds to the AF 45
88.1%
+0.4
Q4 11:41
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Bruin Fleischmann
87.9%
-0.1
Q4 11:34
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the AF 47 for a 1ST down
87.9%
0.0
Q4 10:59
Liam Szarka pass complete to Jonah Dawson for 53 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
62.4%
-25.5
NAVY · Drive 18FG · 12 plays · 60 yds
Q4 10:52
Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 54 yds , Isaiah Bryant return for 12 yds to the NAVY 23
64.5%
+2.1
Q4 10:45
Blake Horvath run for 3 yds to the NAVY 26
70.8%
+6.4
Q4 10:04
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 27 yds to the AF 47 for a 1ST down Air Force Penalty, (15 Yards) to the AF 32 for a 1ST down
70.8%
0.0
Q4 9:34
Blake Horvath pass complete to Shane Reynolds for 3 yds to the AF 29
72.1%
+1.3
Q4 8:57
Shane Reynolds run for 4 yds to the AF 25
72.1%
0.0
Q4 8:17
Shane Reynolds run for 4 yds to the AF 21 for a 1ST down
71.6%
-0.5
Q4 7:41
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Cody Howard
70.3%
-1.4
Q4 7:36
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Cody Howard
70.0%
-0.2
Q4 7:20
Blake Horvath pass complete to Joshua Guerin for 9 yds to the AF 12
69.8%
-0.2
Q4 6:51
Timeout Navy, clock 06:51
68.8%
-1.0
Q4 6:51
PENALTY Navy False Start 5 yards from USAFA12 to USAFA17. NO PLAY.
68.8%
0.0
Q4 6:47
Nathan Kirkwood 34 yd FG GOOD
79.4%
+10.6
AF · Drive 19FUMBLE · 9 plays · 24 yds
Q4 6:47
Lance Gossett kickoff for 63 yds
78.3%
-1.0
Q4 6:42
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Cade Harris
75.9%
-2.5
Q4 6:33
Liam Szarka run for 7 yds to the AF 32
75.9%
0.0
Q4 5:51
Liam Szarka pass complete to Cade Harris for 5 yds to the AF 37 for a 1ST down
75.7%
-0.2
Q4 5:16
Liam Szarka run for 1 yd to the AF 38
75.7%
0.0
Q4 4:33
Liam Szarka pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 14 yds to the NAVY 48 for a 1ST down
74.9%
-0.8
Q4 3:57
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Jonah Dawson
73.8%
-1.1
Q4 3:45
Liam Szarka run for 1 yd to the NAVY 47
73.8%
0.0
Q4 3:07
Liam Szarka run for a loss of 4 yards to the AF 49 Liam Szarka fumbled, recovered by AF Landon Robinson
75.2%
+1.4
NAVY · Drive 20END OF GAME · 11 plays · 30 yds
Q4 2:37
Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 4 yds to the AF 45
84.3%
+9.1
Q4 2:15
Navy Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declined
84.5%
+0.2
Q4 2:08
Blake Horvath run for 8 yds to the AF 39 for a 1ST down
84.3%
-0.1
Q4 2:00
Timeout Navy, clock 02:00
84.9%
+0.6
Q4 1:56
Blake Horvath run for 1 yd to the AF 38
85.4%
+0.5
Q4 1:56
Timeout Air Force, clock 01:56
85.8%
+0.4
Q4 1:52
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 7 yds to the AF 31
85.8%
0.0
Q4 1:48
Blake Horvath run for 1 yd to the AF 30
85.7%
-0.1
Q4 1:40
Blake Horvath pass complete to Jackson Gutierrez for 8 yds to the AF 22 for a 1ST down
85.6%
-0.2
Q4 1:00
(01:07) Kneel down by Navy at USAFA24 for loss of 2 yards.
88.0%
+2.4
Q4 0:00
(00:31) PENALTY USAFA Delay Of Game (Zdroik,Payton) 5 yards from USAFA24 to USAFA19. NO PLAY.
91.9%
+3.9
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:59
Liam Szarka pass complete to Jonah Dawson for 53 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
-25.5
TD · Q4 14:55
Liam Szarka pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 18 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
-20.9
TD · Q4 12:55
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 60 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
+18.1