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App State 14 at Boise State 47

BOIS
2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:26 · Oscar Doyle punt for 42 yds , Juan Berchal returns for 45 yds to the BOIS 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 107Pregame prior+20.1Home team on offense+17.0Score differential+8.6Garbage-time factor+5.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.5Blowout margin−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:07: Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ben Ford for 14 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK) — BOIS win probability +4.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:16: AJ Swann pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 7 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK) — APP win probability +7.0 pts (now 13%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:40: Jaquari Lewis run for 3 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK) — APP win probability +7.8 pts (now 15%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 5:59: Colton Boomer 40 yd FG GOOD — BOIS win probability +3.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:24: Maddux Madsen pass complete to Quinton Brown for 29 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — BOIS win probability +4.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 9 of 9APP made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 6:00APP 4th & 19 at APP 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−0.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:00APP 4th & 19 at APP 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−0.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:24BOIS 4th & 7 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:44APP 4th & 2 at APP 33, down 14
    Close callPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:00BOIS 4th & 4 at BOIS 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:00APP 4th & 6 at APP 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:36APP 4th & 1 at BOIS 34, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    4.9%−1.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−1.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:05BOIS 4th & 8 at APP 8, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.6%
    90% to make
    Punt
    86.8%−2.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:16APP 4th & 5 at APP 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:26BOIS 4th & 6 at BOIS 45, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:59BOIS 4th & 7 at APP 22, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    82.6%−4.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:31APP 4th & 9 at APP 17, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:53BOIS 4th & 5 at APP 40, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    91.6%−0.9
    34% to make
    Punt
    91.8%−0.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:54APP 4th & 14 at APP 19, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:31APP 4th & 14 at APP 21, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:54BOIS 4th & 8 at BOIS 49, up 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:10BOIS 4th & 1 at APP 11, up 33
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.2
    87% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:10BOIS 4th & 2 at APP 37, up 33
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 4APP made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:49BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:49BOIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:07BOIS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:16APP Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:40APP Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:24BOIS Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    96.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0489% → 89%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.1%
Dylan Riley run for 4 yds to the BOIS 29Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
88.9%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Dylan Riley for no gain to the BOIS 29Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+16
88.7%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 16 yds to the BOIS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
88.7%
Dylan Riley run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 5
50
+22
88.6%
Malik Sherrod run for 22 yds to the APP 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
88.5%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 6 yds to the APP 22Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+4
88.3%
Sire Gaines run for 4 yds to the APP 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
88.2%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Chris MarshallSimilar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+4
88.1%
Sire Gaines run for 4 yds to the APP 14Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+4
87.9%
PENALTY APP Offside 4 yards from APP14 to APP10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+10
88.6%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 10 yds for a TD App State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ethan Johnson) declined (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2PUNT
13 plays · 31 yds · 3:4012% → 12%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.4%
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the APP 28Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
88.3%
AJ Swann pass complete to William Fowles for 12 yds to the APP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
88.1%
Rashod Dubinion run for 7 yds to the APP 47Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+2
88.0%
AJ Swann pass complete to AJ Swann for 2 yds to the APP 49Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+6
87.9%
Rashod Dubinion run for 6 yds to the BOIS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
87.8%
Rashod Dubinion run for 4 yds to the BOIS 41Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 6
OPP 41
-5
87.7%
PENALTY APP False Start (Flowers,Will) 5 yards from BSU41 to BSU46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+7
87.8%
Jaquari Lewis run for 7 yds to the BOIS 39Similar
Q1 6:36
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
87.6%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Jaden BarnesSimilar
Q1 6:20
4TH & 4
OPP 39
-15
87.7%
(06:36) No Huddle-Shotgun Swann,AJ pass complete short right to Stroman,Dalton caught at BSU36, for 0 yards to the BSU39 PENALTY APP Pass Interference (Dozier,Davion) 15 yards from BSU39 to APP46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:00
4TH & 19
OWN 46
0
88.1%
Ian Ratliff punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q1 6:00
4TH & 19
OWN 46
0
88.1%
Ian Ratliff punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:3188% → 88%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
87.9%
Dylan Riley run for 6 yds to the BOIS 16Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+3
87.8%
Dylan Riley run for 3 yds to the BOIS 19Similar
Q1 4:47
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+28
87.6%
Sire Gaines run for 28 yds to the BOIS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
88.1%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Latrell CaplesSimilar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
88.1%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 7
50
0
87.8%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Latrell CaplesSimilar
Q1 3:24
4TH & 7
50
0
87.5%
Oscar Doyle punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jaden Barnes at the APP 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4INT TD
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:3012% → 11%
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
87.6%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Dalton StromanSimilar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+7
87.6%
AJ Swann pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 7 yds to the APP 16Similar
Q1 2:38
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+4
87.4%
AJ Swann pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 4 yds to the APP 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
87.1%
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the APP 22Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
87.1%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Davion DozierSimilar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-26
89.3%
AJ Swann pass intercepted A'Marion McCoy return for 26 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5811% → 11%
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.2%
Rashod Dubinion run for 4 yds to the APP 29Similar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
89.1%
Rashod Dubinion run for 4 yds to the APP 33Similar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
89.1%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Jaden BarnesSimilar
Q1 0:44
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
89.3%
Ian Ratliff punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Malik Sherrod at the BOIS 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4290% → 90%
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
89.9%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Chris MarshallSimilar
Q1 0:34
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
89.9%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Sire Gaines for 6 yds to the BOIS 33Similar
Q1 0:02
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
89.9%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Ben FordSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
89.6%
Oscar Doyle punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jaden Barnes at the APP 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 2:0011% → 11%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-8
89.2%
AJ Swann sacked by Braxton Fely for a loss of 8 yards to the APP 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 15
+5
89.3%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jose Leon for 5 yds to the APP 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 20
+7
89.4%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jose Leon for 7 yds to the APP 27Similar
Q2 13:00
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
89.5%
Ian Ratliff punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Malik Sherrod at the BOIS 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 5:3590% → 95%
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
90.1%
Dylan Riley run for 4 yds to the BOIS 24Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
90.1%
Dylan Riley run for 4 yds to the BOIS 28Similar
Q2 11:36
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+5
89.9%
Sire Gaines run for 5 yds to the BOIS 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
90.2%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Wagner for 5 yds to the BOIS 38Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+1
90.6%
Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the BOIS 39Similar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+5
90.3%
(09:59) PENALTY APP Offside (Littlejohn,Brayshawn) 5 yards from BSU39 to BSU44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+18
90.7%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ben Ford for 18 yds to the APP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
90.8%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the APP 35Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+20
90.8%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chris Marshall for 20 yds to the APP 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
90.5%
Dylan Riley run for 1 yd to the APP 14Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+14
95.2%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ben Ford for 14 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 9TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 5:436% → 13%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
94.4%
AJ Swann sacked by Jayden Virgin-Morgan for a loss of 6 yards to the APP 19Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 16
OWN 19
-7
94.6%
App State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+15
94.7%
Boise State Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Max Stege) to the APP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
94.4%
Rashod Dubinion run for 4 yds to the APP 41Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+16
94.4%
Rashod Dubinion run for 16 yds to the BOIS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
94.2%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Davion DozierSimilar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
94.4%
Jaquari Lewis run for 5 yds to the BOIS 38Similar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+4
94.7%
Jaquari Lewis run for 4 yds to the BOIS 34Similar
Q2 3:36
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+1
94.7%
Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd to the BOIS 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
94.6%
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the BOIS 31Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+15
94.7%
(02:26) No Huddle-Shotgun Swann,AJ pass incomplete short left to Fowles,William thrown to BSU23 QB hurried by Benefield,Ty PENALTY BSU Face Mask (Stege,Max) 15 yards from BSU31 to BSU16, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
94.6%
Jaquari Lewis run for 1 yd to the BOIS 15Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+9
93.9%
AJ Swann pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 9 yds to the BOIS 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
94.0%
Rashod Dubinion run for 4 yds to the BOIS 2Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
94.0%
PENALTY APP False Start (Sweatt,Cayden) 5 yards from BSU02 to BSU07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
87.1%
AJ Swann pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 7 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10FG
11 plays · 62 yds · 0:5591% → 92%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
91.2%
Dylan Riley run for 5 yds to the BOIS 35Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+15
91.2%
(00:54) No Huddle-Shotgun Madsen,Maddux pass incomplete deep right to Marshall,Chris thrown to APP37 broken up by Floyd,Emory PENALTY APP Pass Interference 15 yards from BSU35 to BSU50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
50
+26
91.8%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chris Marshall for 26 yds to the APP 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
91.9%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Matt LauterSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+6
91.9%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chris Marshall for 6 yds to the APP 18Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+13
91.3%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ben Ford for 13 yds to the APP 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-15
90.9%
Maddux Madsen sacked by Kevin Abrams-Verwayne for a loss of 15 yards to the APP 20 Maddux Madsen fumbled, recovered by BOIS Maddux Madsen , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 20
+12
91.3%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 12 yds to the APP 8Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
90.9%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Chris MarshallSimilar
Q2 0:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
92.0%
Colton Boomer 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
91.8%
App State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:448% → 7%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.3%
Rashod Dubinion run for 5 yds to the APP 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
92.0%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Izayah CummingsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
92.2%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Davion DozierSimilar
Q3 14:16
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
92.8%
Ian Ratliff punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Malik Sherrod at the BOIS 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:5093% → 93%
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
92.7%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the BOIS 26Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
92.7%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Latrell CaplesSimilar
Q3 14:16
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+15
92.4%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Wagner for 15 yds to the BOIS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
93.0%
Dylan Riley run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 40Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+5
92.9%
Dylan Riley run for 5 yds to the BOIS 45Similar
Q3 14:16
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
92.7%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Chris MarshallSimilar
Q3 11:26
4TH & 6
OWN 45
+45
93.2%
Oscar Doyle punt for 42 yds , Juan Berchal returns for 45 yds to the BOIS 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14TD
4 plays · 42 yds · 0:388% → 13%
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
92.4%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to William FowlesSimilar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+39
92.7%
Rashod Dubinion run for 39 yds to the BOIS 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
84.9%
Jaquari Lewis run for 3 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)Similar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
86.9%
PENALTY APP UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Swann,AJ) 15 yards from APP35 to APP20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 4:2588% → 92%
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
87.6%
Sire Gaines run for 4 yds to the BOIS 24Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+15
87.7%
Sire Gaines run for 15 yds to the BOIS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
88.4%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+15
88.2%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 15 yds to the APP 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
88.8%
Maddux Madsen run for 1 yd to the APP 45Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
88.7%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Ben FordSimilar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+20
88.1%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 20 yds to the APP 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
89.2%
Malik Sherrod run for a loss of 1 yard to the APP 26Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+4
89.2%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 4 yds to the APP 22Similar
Q3 6:04
3RD & 7
OPP 22
0
88.7%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Matt LauterSimilar
Q3 5:59
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+40
91.9%
Colton Boomer 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:199% → 8%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
91.1%
Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd to the APP 17Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 9
OWN 17
0
91.2%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jose Leon for no gain to the APP 17Similar
Q3 4:39
3RD & 9
OWN 17
0
91.7%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:31
4TH & 9
OWN 17
0
91.8%
Ian Ratliff punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Malik Sherrod at the BOIS 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 3:0093% → 98%
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
93.1%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 13 yds to the APP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
93.2%
Sire Gaines run for 5 yds to the APP 40 Boise State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Matt Lauter) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 15
50
+9
93.0%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 9 yds to the APP 41Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+2
93.2%
Sire Gaines run for 2 yds to the APP 39Similar
Q3 2:28
3RD & 4
OPP 39
-1
93.2%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Sire Gaines for a loss of 1 yard to the APP 40Similar
Q3 1:53
4TH & 5
OPP 40
+11
92.8%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 11 yds to the APP 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
97.5%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Quinton Brown for 29 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:214% → 4%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
96.0%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+1
96.2%
AJ Swann pass complete to David Larkins for 1 yd to the APP 24Similar
Q3 0:27
3RD & 9
OWN 24
-5
96.4%
(00:29) PENALTY APP Delay Of Game 5 yards from APP24 to APP19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 14
OWN 19
0
96.5%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 14
OWN 19
0
96.5%
Ian Ratliff punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Malik Sherrod at the BOIS 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 3:2398% → 100%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
97.9%
Malik Sherrod run for 9 yds to the BOIS 40Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+8
98.0%
Malik Sherrod run for 8 yds to the BOIS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
98.2%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 8
50
-1
98.3%
Dylan Riley run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 49Similar
Q4 12:33
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+11
98.3%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Cameron Bates for 11 yds to the APP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
98.4%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Wagner for 9 yds to the APP 31Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 1
OPP 31
-3
99.6%
Sire Gaines run for a loss of 3 yards to the APP 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20INT TD
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:210% → 0%
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Rashod Dubinion run for 4 yds to the APP 29Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-33
99.9%
Boen Phelps 33 Yd Interception Return (Colton Boomer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:490% → 0%
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.9%
PENALTY APP Delay Of Game 5 yards from APP25 to APP20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
99.9%
Jaquari Lewis run for 1 yd to the APP 21Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Noah Gillon pass incomplete to Jaden BarnesSimilar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Noah Gillon pass incomplete to Jaquari LewisSimilar
Q4 9:31
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Ian Ratliff punt for 48 yds , Malik Sherrod returns for no gain to the BOIS 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:31100% → 100%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
99.9%
Sire Gaines run for a loss of 2 yards to the BOIS 29Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+15
99.9%
App State Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Jordan Favors) to the BOIS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
99.9%
Dylan Riley run for a loss of 2 yards to the BOIS 45Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+4
99.9%
Dylan Riley run for 4 yds to the BOIS 49Similar
Q4 6:59
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Max Cutforth pass incomplete to Demetric Whitlock Jr.Similar
Q4 6:54
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Oscar Doyle punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jaden Barnes at the APP 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23FUMBLE
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:260% → 0%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
99.9%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Jaquari Lewis for 1 yd to the APP 15Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 9
OWN 15
-5
99.9%
Billy Wiles sacked by Malakai Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the APP 20 Billy Wiles fumbled, recovered by BOIS Mana Tuioti , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
99.9%
Dylan Riley run for 2 yds to the APP 18Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+6
99.9%
Dylan Riley run for 6 yds to the APP 12Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+1
99.9%
Dylan Riley run for 1 yd to the APP 11Similar
Q4 4:10
4TH & 1
OPP 11
-9
99.9%
Max Cutforth sacked by Joseph Bakhole for a loss of 9 yards to the APP 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 25INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:560% → 0%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
99.9%
Billy Wiles sacked by Sterling Lane II for a loss of 1 yard to the APP 19Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+2
100.0%
Jaquari Lewis run for 2 yds to the APP 21Similar
Q4 3:04
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+2
100.0%
Billy Wiles pass intercepted Sherrod Smith return for a loss of 2 yards to the APP 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 26END OF GAME
7 plays · 10 yds · 3:04100% → 100%
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
99.9%
PENALTY BSU False Start (Steele,Jake) 5 yards from APP45 to APP50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 15
50
+4
99.9%
Sire Gaines run for 4 yds to the APP 46Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+5
99.9%
Seth Knothe run for 5 yds to the APP 41Similar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+4
99.9%
Seth Knothe run for 4 yds to the APP 37Similar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+3
99.9%
Seth Knothe run for 3 yds to the APP 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
100.0%
(00:30) Kneel down by Boise State at APP35 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:40
Jaquari Lewis run for 3 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)
-7.8
TD · Q2 1:16
AJ Swann pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 7 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)
-7
TD · Q2 7:07
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ben Ford for 14 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
+4.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com