2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · CEFCU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadIDHO aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreIDHO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:02 · Trent Carrizosa punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tony Harste at the IDHO 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 5:11: Joshua Wood pass complete to Ryan Jezioro for 15 yds for a TD (Owen Forsman KICK) — IDHO win probability +18.6 pts (now 57%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:51: Floyd Chalk IV run for 7 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK) — SJSU win probability +19.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:17: Joshua Wood pass complete to Noah West-Baranco for 18 yds for a TD (Owen Forsman KICK) — IDHO win probability +31.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:21: Floyd Chalk IV run for 1 yd for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK) — SJSU win probability +33.6 pts (now 68%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:08: Denis Lynch 48 yd FG GOOD — SJSU win probability +32.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3IDHO made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
- Q1 4:35SJSU 4th & 3 at IDHO 49, down 7Close callPunted · 77.0% before the snapGo for it77.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.0%−0.2average punt
- Q1 2:38IDHO 4th & 5 at IDHO 19, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snapGo for it24.2%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.4%average punt
- Q1 1:02SJSU 4th & 10 at SJSU 46, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.7% before the snapGo for it73.4%−0.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.9%average punt
- Q2 9:56IDHO 4th & 3 at SJSU 28, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call31.8%52% to convertField goal31.3%−0.560% to makePunt28.5%−3.2average punt
- Q2 5:56IDHO 4th & 8 at IDHO 27, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snapGo for it33.7%−1.233% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.9%average punt
- Q2 0:46IDHO 4th & 1 at SJSU 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call31.9%70% to convertField goal30.4%−1.527% to makePunt30.4%−1.5average punt
- Q2 0:13IDHO 4th & 2 at SJSU 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.4% before the snapGo for it31.2%−1.456% to convertField goalTheir call32.6%80% to makePunt28.0%−4.6average punt
- Q3 12:52IDHO 4th & 1 at IDHO 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call32.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt30.4%−1.9average punt
- Q4 14:06IDHO 4th & 2 at SJSU 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call42.0%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt39.6%−2.4average punt
- Q4 9:17IDHO 4th & 2 at SJSU 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call45.5%56% to convertField goal42.0%−3.579% to makePunt22.1%−23.3average punt
- Q4 3:23IDHO 4th & 17 at IDHO 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 43.5% before the snapGo for it34.2%−12.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.4%average punt
- Q4 0:08SJSU 4th & 4 at IDHO 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.3% before the snapGo for it56.8%−8.448% to convertField goalTheir call65.2%56% to makePunt47.7%−17.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4IDHO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 7:03IDHO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call21.1%97% to makeGo for two21.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:12IDHO Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.2%97% to makeGo for two40.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:53SJSU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.0%97% to makeGo for two63.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:55SJSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.9%97% to makeGo for two69.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:11IDHO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call50.9%97% to makeGo for two50.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 1:51SJSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.7%97% to makeGo for two62.4%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 9:17IDHO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.4%97% to makeGo for two66.1%−0.445% to convert
- Q4 5:21SJSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.1%97% to makeGo for two50.9%−1.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSJSUDrive 1FUMBLE6 plays · 29 yds · 1:4486% → 85%
Q1 14:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
85.5%
Walker Eget pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 7 yds to the SJSU 32Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 9
OPP 44
-2
85.2%
Walker Eget run for a loss of 2 yards to the IDHO 46 Walker Eget fumbled, recovered by IDHO Walker Eget Walker Eget fumbled, recovered by IDHO Dylan LayneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 2TD13 plays · 54 yds · 6:0615% → 19%
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
85.0%
(13:09) PENALTY IDA False Start (Evans,Leon) 5 yards from IDA46 to IDA41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+11
84.2%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Daveon Superales for 11 yds to the SJSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+8
83.6%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Ryan Jezioro for 8 yds to the SJSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+11
83.1%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Emmerson Cortez-Menjivar for 11 yds to the SJSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 26 yds · 2:2181% → 80%
IDHODrive 4PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4421% → 21%
Q1 3:49
2ND & 7
OWN 17
-8
79.2%
(03:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Wood,Joshua pass complete short middle to Hoffmann,Gabe caught at IDA27, for 21 yards to the IDA38 (Apalit-Williams,Jalen) PENALTY IDA Holding (Henson,Kiegan) 8 yards from IDA17 to IDA09. NO PLAY. The previous play is under automatic review - "First down". PLAY STANDS.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 1:2778% → 77%
Q1 1:02
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
76.8%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tony Harste at the IDHO 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 6TD17 plays · 85 yds · 8:4123% → 41%
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+18
76.2%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Emmerson Cortez-Menjivar for 18 yds to the IDHO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
73.2%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Nolan McWilliams for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 7
50
+15
72.6%
(12:09) Shotgun Thomas,Nate rush left for 0 yards to the IDA50 (McNeal-Franklin,Noah) PENALTY SJSU Personal Foul (Pollard,Jordan) 15 yards from IDA50 to SJSU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-10
69.6%
(09:29) Shotgun Williams,Art rush middle for 15 yards gain to the SJSU06 (Revis,Isiah) PENALTY IDA Holding (Skinner,Tyler) 10 yards from SJSU21 to SJSU31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 20
OPP 31
-7
69.3%
Joshua Wood sacked by Vili Taufatofua for a loss of 7 yards to the SJSU 38Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 27
OPP 38
+36
69.9%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Daveon Superales for 36 yds to the SJSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7TD2 plays · 87 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 8PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5132% → 32%
Q2 6:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
67.1%
Art Williams pass intercepted Larry Turner-Gooden return for no gain to the IDHO 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9TD9 plays · 80 yds · 3:4168% → 77%
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+56
67.5%
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 56 yds to the IDHO 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+9
69.9%
Walker Eget pass complete to Leland Smith for 9 yds to the IDHO 15Similar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
69.3%
Walker Eget pass complete to Leland Smith for 8 yds to the IDHO 5Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 2
OPP 5
-5
69.0%
(02:55) PENALTY SJSU False Start (Hale,Nate) 5 yards from IDA05 to IDA10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 12
OPP 15
+15
77.0%
Walker Eget pass complete to Kyri Shoels for 15 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 10MISSED FG18 plays · 58 yds · 1:3327% → 30%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
72.6%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Art Williams for 1 yd to the IDHO 26Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
72.7%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Daveon Superales for 9 yds to the IDHO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+12
73.2%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Emmerson Cortez-Menjivar for 12 yds to the IDHO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+9
71.4%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Tony Harste for 9 yds to the SJSU 44Similar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
69.3%
Joshua Wood pass intercepted Isiah Revis return for no gain to the SJSU 6Similar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
69.3%
(00:45) No Huddle-Shotgun Wood,Joshua pass intercepted by Revis,Isiah at SJSU06, End Of Play PENALTY SJSU Pass Interference (Revis,Isiah) 15 yards from SJSU40 to SJSU25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+8
69.2%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Art Williams for 8 yds to the SJSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · 10 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 12TD17 plays · 74 yds · 9:2629% → 57%
Q3 13:29
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+8
71.8%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Art Williams for 8 yds to the IDHO 35Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+17
67.9%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Emmerson Cortez-Menjivar for 17 yds to the SJSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:51
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+9
66.5%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Tony Harste for 9 yds to the SJSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
62.4%
(07:07) Shotgun Wood,Joshua rush right for 3 yards gain to the SJSU15, End Of Play PENALTY IDA Illegal Shift 5 yards from SJSU18 to SJSU23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+15
43.4%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Ryan Jezioro for 15 yds for a TD (Owen Forsman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13TD11 plays · 75 yds · 3:1250% → 68%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+40
49.7%
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 40 yds to the IDHO 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:31
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+13
51.9%
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 13 yds to the IDHO 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
68.0%
PENALTY SJSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Manukainiu,Makoni) 15 yards from SJSU35 to SJSU20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 14TD14 plays · 57 yds · 7:1840% → 74%
Q3 1:05
2ND & 8
OWN 45
-5
59.8%
PENALTY IDA False Start (Evans,Leon) 5 yards from IDA45 to IDA40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:06
4TH & 2
OPP 49
+11
60.3%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Emmerson Cortez-Menjivar for 11 yds to the SJSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:17
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+18
26.0%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Noah West-Baranco for 18 yds for a TD (Owen Forsman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15TD8 plays · 68 yds · 3:4135% → 68%
IDHODrive 16PUNT8 plays · 8 yds · 1:4945% → 43%
SJSUDrive 17FG15 plays · 31 yds · 3:0664% → 95%
Q4 2:31
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+7
63.0%
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 7 yds to the SJSU 45Similar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
50
+14
65.9%
Walker Eget pass complete to Kyri Shoels for 14 yds to the IDHO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+5
65.5%
(00:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Eget,Walker pass incomplete short right to Scudero,Danny thrown to IDA30 broken up by Layne,Dylan PENALTY IDA Offside (Heims,Maurice) 5 yards from IDA35 to IDA30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
95.1%
PENALTY IDA Leaping (Jackson,Tim) 15 yards from SJSU35 to SJSU50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 18FUMBLE2 plays · 28 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
88.9%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Jake Cox for 28 yds to the SJSU 47 Idaho Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:21
Floyd Chalk IV run for 1 yd for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)
+33.6
FG · Q4 0:08
Denis Lynch 48 yd FG GOOD
+32.4
TD · Q4 9:17
Joshua Wood pass complete to Noah West-Baranco for 18 yds for a TD (Owen Forsman KICK)
-31.2