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BOIS

Boise State 49 at Air Force 37

AF
2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+4.3AF 33.0%Jacob Medina 25 yd FG GOODAWAY 28 - HOME 24 · Q3 1:10
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:10 · Jacob Medina 25 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 129Pregame prior−9.8Home team on offense−4.5Garbage-time factor−3.9Score differential−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:52: Liam Szarka run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK) — AF win probability +17.7 pts (now 42%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:51: Malik Sherrod run for 40 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK) — BOIS win probability +14.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:58: Maddux Madsen pass complete to Dylan Riley for 75 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK) — BOIS win probability +15.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:44: Liam Szarka pass complete to Quin Smith for 12 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — AF win probability +22.6 pts (now 35%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:26: Liam Szarka pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 5 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK) — AF win probability +23.2 pts (now 30%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 7BOIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 14:01BOIS 4th & 9 at BOIS 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:33AF 4th & 15 at AF 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:57AF 4th & 2 at BOIS 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.3%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:12BOIS 4th & 11 at BOIS 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:05AF 4th & 1 at AF 21, down 7
    Close callPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:05AF 4th & 1 at AF 21, down 7
    Close callPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 3:27AF 4th & 1 at BOIS 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    26.1%−3.3
    81% to make
    Punt
    16.0%−13.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:10AF 4th & 4 at BOIS 8, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.4%−1.0
    90% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−12.7
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:19AF 4th & 1 at BOIS 15, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    12.8%−1.9
    83% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−8.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5BOIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 11:54AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:09BOIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:38BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:25BOIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:52AF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:52AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:51BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:58BOIS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:44AF Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    28.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    28.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:18BOIS Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−0.6
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:26AF Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 2:08BOIS Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4881% → 81%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
18.8%
Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the BOIS 25Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
19.1%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Latrell CaplesSimilar
Q1 14:09
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
19.1%
Max Cutforth pass incomplete to Latrell CaplesSimilar
Q1 14:01
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
19.2%
Oscar Doyle punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Cade Harris at the AF 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 2:0419% → 21%
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
19.2%
Josh Johnson pass incomplete to Cade HarrisSimilar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+64
19.3%
Dylan Carson run for 64 yds to the BOIS 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
19.9%
Kade Frew run for 6 yds to the BOIS 4Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
20.3%
Kemper Hodges run for 2 yds to the BOIS 2Similar
Q1 11:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
21.2%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3779% → 78%
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
21.1%
Dylan Riley run for 3 yds to the BOIS 28Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
21.3%
Dylan Riley run for no gain to the BOIS 28Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+13
22.0%
Max Cutforth pass complete to Latrell Caples for 13 yds to the BOIS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
22.2%
Max Cutforth pass complete to Matt Wagner for 4 yds to the BOIS 45Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+10
22.3%
Sire Gaines run for 10 yds to the AF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
22.8%
Dylan Riley run for 12 yds to the AF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+17
23.1%
Max Cutforth pass complete to Latrell Caples for 17 yds to the AF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
23.3%
(07:46) Cutforth,Max pass incomplete short right to Ford,Ben thrown to AF12 QB hurried by Grobe,Daniel PENALTY AF Personal Foul (Grobe,Daniel) 8 yards from AF16 to AF08, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
23.4%
Dylan Riley run for 4 yds to the AF 4Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
21.6%
Dylan Riley run for 4 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 2:3023% → 23%
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
22.6%
Cade Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the AF 23Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+15
22.9%
(06:29) Roberson,Tre pass incomplete deep right to Smith,Quin thrown to BS50 PENALTY BS Roughing The Passer (Stege,Max) 15 yards from AF23 to AF38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
23.3%
(06:25) Frew,Kade rush right for 6 yards gain to the AF44 (Benefield,Ty) PENALTY AF Holding (Fleischmann,Bruin) 10 yards from AF38 to AF28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:54
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+2
23.2%
Cade Harris run for 2 yds to the AF 30Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 18
OWN 30
+3
23.5%
Josh Johnson run for 3 yds to the AF 33Similar
Q1 4:43
3RD & 15
OWN 33
0
23.4%
Josh Johnson pass incomplete to Kade FrewSimilar
Q1 4:33
4TH & 15
OWN 33
+7
23.3%
Luke Freer punt for 42 yds , Malik Sherrod returns for 7 yds to the BOIS 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 1:4677% → 80%
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
23.5%
PENALTY BS False Start (Riley,Dylan) 5 yards from BS32 to BS27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+6
23.8%
Dylan Riley run for 6 yds to the BOIS 33Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+13
23.9%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chris Marshall for 13 yds to the BOIS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+20
23.6%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 20 yds to the AF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
23.3%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Quinton BrownSimilar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+34
20.1%
Dylan Riley run for 34 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6DOWNS
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:3521% → 22%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
20.6%
Dylan Carson run for 9 yds to the AF 34Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+10
21.2%
(01:57) Johnson,Josh pass incomplete short middle to Harris,Cade thrown to BS50 broken up by Benefield,Ty PENALTY BS Holding (Benefield,Ty) 10 yards from AF34 to AF44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
21.3%
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the AF 48Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+3
21.6%
Josh Johnson run for 3 yds to the BOIS 49Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+1
21.8%
Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the BOIS 48Similar
Q2 14:57
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
21.5%
Dylan Carson run for no gain to the BOIS 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7TD
12 plays · 52 yds · 4:2479% → 84%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+17
20.6%
Malik Sherrod run for 17 yds to the AF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
20.3%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Matt WagnerSimilar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+1
20.3%
Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the AF 34Similar
Q2 13:16
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+17
20.7%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chase Penry for 17 yds to the AF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
20.3%
PENALTY BS False Start (Wagner,Matt) 5 yards from AF17 to AF22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 15
OPP 22
-5
20.4%
PENALTY BS False Start (Holmes,Zach) 5 yards from AF22 to AF27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 20
OPP 27
0
20.5%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Ben FordSimilar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 30
OPP 37
+9
20.9%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Dylan Riley for 9 yds to the AF 28Similar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 21
OPP 28
+24
21.2%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Wagner for 24 yds to the AF 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
20.5%
Dylan Riley run for 1 yd to the AF 3Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
20.5%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Luke VoorheesSimilar
Q2 10:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
16.2%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 3 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8TD
13 plays · 72 yds · 5:2714% → 25%
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
14.3%
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the AF 28Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
14.0%
PENALTY AF Offside (Spencer,Gage) 5 yards from AF28 to AF23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+38
13.8%
Liam Szarka run for 38 yds to the BOIS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
14.7%
Dylan Carson run for 9 yds to the BOIS 30Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+2
14.9%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the BOIS 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
14.7%
Rocco Conti run for 4 yds to the BOIS 24Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+10
14.6%
Cade Harris run for 10 yds to the BOIS 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
14.1%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Cade Harris for 3 yds to the BOIS 11 for a 1ST down Boise State Penalty, (7 Yards) to the BOIS 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
14.0%
Liam Szarka run for 2 yds to the BOIS 5Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
13.9%
Liam Szarka run for 2 yds to the BOIS 3Similar
Q2 4:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
24.8%
Kemper Hodges run for 3 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 22 yds · 2:2778% → 74%
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
22.2%
Dylan Riley run for 1 yd to the BOIS 16Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+22
22.6%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ben Ford for 22 yds to the BOIS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
20.8%
(03:34) Shotgun Madsen,Maddux pass incomplete deep left to Bates,Cameron thrown to AF15 PENALTY BS Holding 10 yards from BS38 to BS28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+10
21.6%
Dylan Riley run for 10 yds to the BOIS 38Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-15
20.0%
Boise State Penalty, (-15 Yards) to the BOIS 25Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 23
OWN 25
0
21.7%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Chris MarshallSimilar
Q2 2:20
3RD & 23
OWN 25
+12
22.2%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 12 yds to the BOIS 37Similar
Q2 2:12
4TH & 11
OWN 37
0
26.2%
Oscar Doyle punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Cade Harris at the AF 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:0223% → 29%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
23.0%
Dylan Carson run for 6 yds to the AF 18Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+2
23.4%
Owen Allen run for 2 yds to the AF 20Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+1
22.9%
Owen Allen run for 1 yd to the AF 21Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 1
OWN 21
+46
28.6%
Luke Freer punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BOIS 33 Air Force Penalty, Defensive Holding (Blake Fletcher) to the BOIS 33Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 1
OWN 21
+36
28.6%
Luke Freer punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BOIS 33 Air Force Penalty, Defensive Holding (Blake Fletcher) to the BOIS 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11INT
11 plays · 42 yds · 0:4976% → 72%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+24
24.1%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 24 yds to the AF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+24
22.9%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 24 yds to the AF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
22.8%
(00:46) Shotgun Madsen,Maddux pass incomplete short left to Ford,Ben thrown to AF00 PENALTY BS Illegal Formation 5 yards from AF09 to AF14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+2
23.1%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the AF 12Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
0
26.7%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Matt WagnerSimilar
Q2 0:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+7
27.4%
(00:27) Shotgun Madsen,Maddux pass incomplete short left to Marshall,Chris thrown to AF01 PENALTY AF Pass Interference (Johnson,Korey) 7 yards from AF12 to AF05, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
26.4%
(00:24) Shotgun Madsen,Maddux pass complete short right to Ford,Ben caught at AF05, for 0 yards to the AF05, out of bounds at AF05 PENALTY BS Holding 10 yards from AF05 to AF15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
0
26.8%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Latrell CaplesSimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
0
27.0%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Chris MarshallSimilar
Q2 0:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
0
27.8%
Maddux Madsen pass intercepted, touchback. Max Mustell return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
29.3%
(00:05) Kneel down by Air Force at AF19 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:0424% → 42%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.8%
Dylan Carson run for no gain to the AF 25Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+74
23.9%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Cade Harris for 74 yds to the BOIS 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.6%
Liam Szarka run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4966% → 80%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
33.6%
Dylan Riley run for 5 yds to the BOIS 30Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
33.0%
Dylan Riley run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 29Similar
Q3 12:29
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+31
34.8%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 31 yds to the AF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
19.8%
Malik Sherrod run for 40 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15FG
21 plays · 67 yds · 10:3323% → 33%
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
23.1%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Kade Frew for a loss of 1 yard to the AF 24Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
23.0%
Liam Szarka run for 10 yds to the AF 34Similar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
24.0%
Liam Szarka run for 3 yds to the AF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
24.2%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the AF 39Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+12
25.4%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Cade Harris for 12 yds to the BOIS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
27.0%
Owen Allen run for 3 yds to the BOIS 46Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+4
27.3%
Liam Szarka run for 4 yds to the BOIS 42Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 3
OPP 42
-5
27.2%
PENALTY AF False Start (Cooley,Costen) 5 yards from BS42 to BS47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+11
26.1%
Liam Szarka run for 11 yds to the BOIS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
27.8%
Owen Allen run for 1 yd to the BOIS 35Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
29.2%
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Cade HarrisSimilar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+10
27.3%
Kade Frew run for 10 yds to the BOIS 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
29.7%
Liam Szarka run for no gain to the BOIS 25Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+7
29.4%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Cade Harris for 7 yds to the BOIS 18Similar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+2
28.1%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the BOIS 16Similar
Q3 3:27
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+2
26.6%
Liam Szarka run for 2 yds to the BOIS 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
30.1%
Liam Szarka run for 5 yds to the BOIS 9Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+2
30.3%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the BOIS 7Similar
Q3 1:41
3RD & 3
OPP 7
-1
28.7%
Cade Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 8Similar
Q3 1:10
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+25
33.0%
Jacob Medina 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
16.4%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Dylan Riley for 75 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:0915% → 35%
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
15.2%
Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the AF 26Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
14.7%
Kade Frew run for a loss of 5 yards to the AF 21Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+21
14.1%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Quin Smith for 21 yds to the AF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
15.3%
Kade Frew run for 2 yds to the AF 44Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+5
15.3%
Liam Szarka run for 5 yds to the AF 49Similar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+4
15.4%
Liam Szarka run for 4 yds to the BOIS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+23
15.8%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Cade Harris for 23 yds to the BOIS 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
16.9%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the BOIS 22Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+6
16.9%
Liam Szarka run for 6 yds to the BOIS 16Similar
Q4 10:54
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+1
15.9%
Liam Szarka run for 1 yd to the BOIS 15Similar
Q4 10:19
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+3
12.6%
Liam Szarka run for 3 yds to the BOIS 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
35.1%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Quin Smith for 12 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:1877% → 95%
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
23.2%
Dylan Riley run for 3 yds to the BOIS 28Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+27
22.2%
Dylan Riley run for 27 yds to the AF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
18.9%
Boise State Penalty, (-10 Yards) to the BOIS 49Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 16
OWN 49
+15
20.8%
Malik Sherrod run for 15 yds to the AF 36Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+13
16.6%
Sire Gaines run for 13 yds to the AF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
15.3%
Sire Gaines run for 11 yds to the AF 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
15.1%
Dylan Riley run for 4 yds to the AF 8Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+8
5.2%
Dylan Riley run for 8 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:466% → 30%
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
6.2%
Cade Harris run for 6 yds to the AF 31Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+29
6.7%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Cade Harris for 29 yds to the BOIS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
7.0%
Liam Szarka run for 4 yds to the BOIS 36Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+32
5.7%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Quin Smith for 32 yds to the BOIS 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
6.9%
Liam Szarka run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 5Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
30.0%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 5 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 0:1190% → 97%
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
50
+5
9.8%
Dylan Riley run for 5 yds to the AF 45Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+2
9.0%
Dylan Riley run for 2 yds to the AF 43Similar
Q4 2:08
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+43
2.8%
Dylan Riley run for 43 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21INT
10 plays · 42 yds · 1:086% → 7%
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
5.8%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Cade Harris for 20 yds to the AF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
5.2%
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Quin SmithSimilar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
5.1%
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Tre RobersonSimilar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+11
4.9%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Cade Harris for 11 yds to the BOIS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
5.7%
Liam Szarka sacked by Malakai Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 45Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+12
4.8%
Liam Szarka run for 12 yds to the BOIS 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
6.7%
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Cade HarrisSimilar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-23
6.5%
Liam Szarka pass intercepted Ty Benefield return for 23 yds to the BOIS 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:3598% → 98%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
1.9%
(00:42) Kneel down by Boise St. at BS37 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 37
-2
1.8%
(00:28) Kneel down by Boise St. at BS35 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:26
Liam Szarka pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 5 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
+23.2
TD · Q4 9:44
Liam Szarka pass complete to Quin Smith for 12 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+22.6
TD · Q3 13:52
Liam Szarka run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
+17.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com