BOIS
Boise State 49 at Air Force 37
AF2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Falcon Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey play
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BOIS · Drive 1PUNT · 5 plays · 1 yds
Q1 14:55
Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 64 yds , Malik Sherrod return for 23 yds to the BOIS 24
20.5%
0.0
Q1 14:49
Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the BOIS 25
19.0%
-1.5
Q1 14:14
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Latrell Caples
18.6%
-0.4
Q1 14:09
Max Cutforth pass incomplete to Latrell Caples
18.6%
0.0
Q1 14:01
Oscar Doyle punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Cade Harris at the AF 26
18.6%
0.0
AF · Drive 2TD · 6 plays · 74 yds
Q1 13:58
Josh Johnson pass incomplete to Cade Harris
20.7%
+2.1
Q1 13:43
Dylan Carson run for 64 yds to the BOIS 10 for a 1ST down
20.7%
0.0
Q1 13:01
Kade Frew run for 6 yds to the BOIS 4
22.4%
+1.7
Q1 12:24
Kemper Hodges run for 2 yds to the BOIS 2
22.4%
0.0
Q1 11:54
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
32.1%
+9.7
Q1 11:54
Timeout Air Force, clock 11:54
18.0%
-14.2
BOIS · Drive 3TD · 11 plays · 75 yds
Q1 11:54
Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
31.6%
+13.6
Q1 11:46
Dylan Riley run for 3 yds to the BOIS 28
30.9%
-0.7
Q1 11:18
Dylan Riley run for no gain to the BOIS 28
30.9%
0.0
Q1 10:33
Max Cutforth pass complete to Latrell Caples for 13 yds to the BOIS 41 for a 1ST down
30.9%
0.0
Q1 9:59
Max Cutforth pass complete to Matt Wagner for 4 yds to the BOIS 45
30.1%
-0.8
Q1 9:34
Sire Gaines run for 10 yds to the AF 45 for a 1ST down
29.6%
-0.5
Q1 8:53
Dylan Riley run for 12 yds to the AF 33 for a 1ST down
28.8%
-0.8
Q1 8:07
Max Cutforth pass complete to Latrell Caples for 17 yds to the AF 16 for a 1ST down
29.1%
+0.2
Q1 7:45
(07:46) Cutforth,Max pass incomplete short right to Ford,Ben thrown to AF12 QB hurried by Grobe,Daniel PENALTY AF Personal Foul (Grobe,Daniel) 8 yards from AF16 to AF08, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
29.1%
0.0
Q1 7:37
Dylan Riley run for 4 yds to the AF 4
29.1%
0.0
Q1 7:09
Dylan Riley run for 4 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
16.5%
-12.6
AF · Drive 4PUNT · 8 plays · 8 yds
Q1 7:09
Colton Boomer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
18.1%
+1.6
Q1 7:03
Cade Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the AF 23
21.2%
+3.0
Q1 6:28
(06:29) Roberson,Tre pass incomplete deep right to Smith,Quin thrown to BS50 PENALTY BS Roughing The Passer (Stege,Max) 15 yards from AF23 to AF38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
21.2%
0.0
Q1 6:23
(06:25) Frew,Kade rush right for 6 yards gain to the AF44 (Benefield,Ty) PENALTY AF Holding (Fleischmann,Bruin) 10 yards from AF38 to AF28. NO PLAY.
21.7%
+0.4
Q1 5:54
Cade Harris run for 2 yds to the AF 30
21.3%
-0.4
Q1 5:17
Josh Johnson run for 3 yds to the AF 33
21.5%
+0.2
Q1 4:43
Josh Johnson pass incomplete to Kade Frew
21.5%
0.0
Q1 4:33
Luke Freer punt for 42 yds , Malik Sherrod returns for 7 yds to the BOIS 32
21.3%
-0.2
BOIS · Drive 5TD · 8 plays · 68 yds
Q1 4:33
Timeout Air Force, clock 04:33
17.7%
-3.6
Q1 4:24
PENALTY BS False Start (Riley,Dylan) 5 yards from BS32 to BS27. NO PLAY.
17.7%
0.0
Q1 4:17
Dylan Riley run for 6 yds to the BOIS 33
17.7%
0.0
Q1 3:53
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chris Marshall for 13 yds to the BOIS 46 for a 1ST down
17.7%
0.0
Q1 3:15
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 20 yds to the AF 34 for a 1ST down
16.6%
-1.1
Q1 2:45
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Quinton Brown
16.1%
-0.4
Q1 2:38
Dylan Riley run for 34 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
8.9%
-7.3
Q1 2:38
Timeout Air Force, clock 02:38
19.1%
+10.2
AF · Drive 6DOWNS · 7 plays · 27 yds
Q1 2:38
Colton Boomer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
9.0%
-10.1
Q1 2:32
Dylan Carson run for 9 yds to the AF 34
12.9%
+3.9
Q1 1:55
(01:57) Johnson,Josh pass incomplete short middle to Harris,Cade thrown to BS50 broken up by Benefield,Ty PENALTY BS Holding (Benefield,Ty) 10 yards from AF34 to AF44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
12.9%
0.0
Q1 1:49
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the AF 48
13.2%
+0.3
Q1 1:08
Josh Johnson run for 3 yds to the BOIS 49
13.5%
+0.4
Q1 0:00
Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the BOIS 48
14.4%
+0.9
Q2 14:57
Dylan Carson run for no gain to the BOIS 48
14.4%
0.0
BOIS · Drive 7TD · 12 plays · 52 yds
Q2 14:49
Malik Sherrod run for 17 yds to the AF 35 for a 1ST down
9.3%
-5.1
Q2 14:13
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Matt Wagner
9.2%
0.0
Q2 14:08
Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the AF 34
9.2%
0.0
Q2 13:16
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chase Penry for 17 yds to the AF 17 for a 1ST down
9.2%
0.0
Q2 12:57
PENALTY BS False Start (Wagner,Matt) 5 yards from AF17 to AF22. NO PLAY.
9.2%
0.0
Q2 12:47
PENALTY BS False Start (Holmes,Zach) 5 yards from AF22 to AF27. NO PLAY.
9.2%
0.0
Q2 12:37
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Ben Ford
9.2%
0.0
Q2 12:02
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Dylan Riley for 9 yds to the AF 28
9.1%
-0.1
Q2 11:33
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Wagner for 24 yds to the AF 4 for a 1ST down
9.1%
0.0
Q2 11:03
Dylan Riley run for 1 yd to the AF 3
9.8%
+0.7
Q2 10:28
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Luke Voorhees
10.1%
+0.3
Q2 10:25
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 3 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
4.8%
-5.3
AF · Drive 8TD · 13 plays · 72 yds
Q2 10:25
Colton Boomer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
5.1%
+0.3
Q2 10:19
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the AF 28
6.6%
+1.5
Q2 9:54
PENALTY AF Offside (Spencer,Gage) 5 yards from AF28 to AF23. NO PLAY.
6.6%
0.0
Q2 9:15
Liam Szarka run for 38 yds to the BOIS 39 for a 1ST down
6.6%
0.0
Q2 8:54
Dylan Carson run for 9 yds to the BOIS 30
7.3%
+0.7
Q2 8:19
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the BOIS 28 for a 1ST down
7.3%
0.0
Q2 7:37
Rocco Conti run for 4 yds to the BOIS 24
6.8%
-0.6
Q2 7:02
Cade Harris run for 10 yds to the BOIS 14 for a 1ST down
6.8%
0.0
Q2 6:28
Liam Szarka pass complete to Cade Harris for 3 yds to the BOIS 11 for a 1ST down Boise State Penalty, (7 Yards) to the BOIS 7 for a 1ST down
6.9%
+0.1
Q2 5:47
Liam Szarka run for 2 yds to the BOIS 5
6.7%
-0.2
Q2 5:24
Liam Szarka run for 2 yds to the BOIS 3
6.7%
0.0
Q2 5:24
Timeout Air Force, clock 05:24
6.1%
-0.6
Q2 4:52
Kemper Hodges run for 3 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
14.4%
+8.4
BOIS · Drive 9PUNT · 10 plays · 22 yds
Q2 4:46
Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 65 yds , Malik Sherrod return for 15 yds to the BOIS 15
13.1%
-1.3
Q2 4:39
Dylan Riley run for 1 yd to the BOIS 16
11.0%
-2.1
Q2 3:54
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ben Ford for 22 yds to the BOIS 38 for a 1ST down
11.0%
0.0
Q2 3:29
(03:34) Shotgun Madsen,Maddux pass incomplete deep left to Bates,Cameron thrown to AF15 PENALTY BS Holding 10 yards from BS38 to BS28. NO PLAY.
10.4%
-0.6
Q2 3:23
Dylan Riley run for 10 yds to the BOIS 38
9.9%
-0.5
Q2 2:47
Boise State Penalty, (-15 Yards) to the BOIS 25
9.4%
-0.5
Q2 2:32
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Chris Marshall
9.9%
+0.5
Q2 2:20
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 12 yds to the BOIS 37
10.0%
+0.1
Q2 2:20
Timeout Air Force, clock 02:20
10.4%
+0.4
Q2 2:12
Oscar Doyle punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Cade Harris at the AF 12
10.4%
0.0
AF · Drive 10PUNT · 6 plays · 9 yds
Q2 2:07
Dylan Carson run for 6 yds to the AF 18
13.4%
+3.0
Q2 1:54
Owen Allen run for 2 yds to the AF 20
13.4%
0.0
Q2 1:11
Owen Allen run for 1 yd to the AF 21
15.8%
+2.4
Q2 1:11
Timeout Air Force, clock 01:11
17.7%
+2.0
Q2 1:05
Luke Freer punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BOIS 33 Air Force Penalty, Defensive Holding (Blake Fletcher) to the BOIS 33
17.7%
0.0
Q2 1:05
Luke Freer punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BOIS 33 Air Force Penalty, Defensive Holding (Blake Fletcher) to the BOIS 43
17.7%
0.0
BOIS · Drive 11INT · 11 plays · 42 yds
Q2 0:57
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 24 yds to the AF 33 for a 1ST down
11.7%
-6.0
Q2 0:47
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 24 yds to the AF 9 for a 1ST down
11.6%
-0.1
Q2 0:43
(00:46) Shotgun Madsen,Maddux pass incomplete short left to Ford,Ben thrown to AF00 PENALTY BS Illegal Formation 5 yards from AF09 to AF14. NO PLAY.
11.6%
0.0
Q2 0:38
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the AF 12
11.6%
0.0
Q2 0:38
Timeout Air Force, clock 00:38
12.5%
+0.9
Q2 0:30
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Matt Wagner
12.5%
0.0
Q2 0:26
(00:27) Shotgun Madsen,Maddux pass incomplete short left to Marshall,Chris thrown to AF01 PENALTY AF Pass Interference (Johnson,Korey) 7 yards from AF12 to AF05, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
12.4%
-0.1
Q2 0:20
(00:24) Shotgun Madsen,Maddux pass complete short right to Ford,Ben caught at AF05, for 0 yards to the AF05, out of bounds at AF05 PENALTY BS Holding 10 yards from AF05 to AF15. NO PLAY.
12.4%
0.0
Q2 0:16
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Latrell Caples
12.4%
0.0
Q2 0:12
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Chris Marshall
12.6%
+0.2
Q2 0:08
Maddux Madsen pass intercepted, touchback. Max Mustell return for no gain
12.6%
0.0
AF · Drive 12END OF HALF · 1 play · -1 yds
Q2 0:00
(00:05) Kneel down by Air Force at AF19 for loss of 1 yard.
16.9%
+4.3
AF · Drive 13TD · 5 plays · 75 yds
Q3 15:00
Colton Boomer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
10.8%
-6.2
Q3 14:56
Dylan Carson run for no gain to the AF 25
16.7%
+5.9
Q3 14:11
Liam Szarka pass complete to Cade Harris for 74 yds to the BOIS 1 for a 1ST down
17.5%
+0.8
Q3 13:52
Liam Szarka run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
31.9%
+14.4
Q3 13:52
Timeout Air Force, clock 13:52
11.4%
-20.5
BOIS · Drive 14TD · 5 plays · 75 yds
Q3 13:52
Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
29.7%
+18.4
Q3 13:40
Dylan Riley run for 5 yds to the BOIS 30
24.6%
-5.1
Q3 13:08
Dylan Riley run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 29
24.6%
0.0
Q3 12:29
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 31 yds to the AF 40 for a 1ST down
24.6%
0.0
Q3 11:51
Malik Sherrod run for 40 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
11.1%
-13.5
AF · Drive 15FG · 21 plays · 67 yds
Q3 11:51
Colton Boomer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
11.9%
+0.8
Q3 11:43
Liam Szarka pass complete to Kade Frew for a loss of 1 yard to the AF 24
16.1%
+4.2
Q3 11:17
Liam Szarka run for 10 yds to the AF 34
16.1%
0.0
Q3 10:46
Liam Szarka run for 3 yds to the AF 37 for a 1ST down
16.1%
0.0
Q3 10:14
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the AF 39
16.8%
+0.8
Q3 9:33
Liam Szarka pass complete to Cade Harris for 12 yds to the BOIS 49 for a 1ST down
17.4%
+0.5
Q3 8:55
Owen Allen run for 3 yds to the BOIS 46
18.3%
+0.9
Q3 8:12
Liam Szarka run for 4 yds to the BOIS 42
18.3%
0.0
Q3 7:35
PENALTY AF False Start (Cooley,Costen) 5 yards from BS42 to BS47. NO PLAY.
18.8%
+0.5
Q3 7:19
Liam Szarka run for 11 yds to the BOIS 36 for a 1ST down
18.2%
-0.6
Q3 6:42
Owen Allen run for 1 yd to the BOIS 35
19.1%
+0.9
Q3 6:03
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Cade Harris
19.1%
0.0
Q3 5:56
Kade Frew run for 10 yds to the BOIS 25 for a 1ST down
18.9%
-0.2
Q3 5:19
Liam Szarka run for no gain to the BOIS 25
19.1%
+0.2
Q3 4:43
Liam Szarka pass complete to Cade Harris for 7 yds to the BOIS 18
20.3%
+1.2
Q3 4:06
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the BOIS 16
21.2%
+0.9
Q3 3:27
Liam Szarka run for 2 yds to the BOIS 14 for a 1ST down
19.3%
-2.0
Q3 2:52
Liam Szarka run for 5 yds to the BOIS 9
19.5%
+0.3
Q3 2:11
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the BOIS 7
19.5%
0.0
Q3 1:41
Cade Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 8
20.6%
+1.1
Q3 1:10
Jacob Medina 25 yd FG GOOD
26.3%
+5.7
BOIS · Drive 16TD · 3 plays · 75 yds
Q3 1:10
Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
24.3%
-2.0
Q3 0:58
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Dylan Riley for 75 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
6.5%
-17.9
Q3 0:58
Timeout Air Force, clock 00:58
24.3%
+17.9
AF · Drive 17TD · 13 plays · 75 yds
Q3 0:58
Colton Boomer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
6.5%
-17.9
Q3 0:53
Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the AF 26
9.5%
+3.1
Q3 0:00
Kade Frew run for a loss of 5 yards to the AF 21
9.4%
-0.1
Q4 14:49
Liam Szarka pass complete to Quin Smith for 21 yds to the AF 42 for a 1ST down
9.2%
-0.2
Q4 14:14
Kade Frew run for 2 yds to the AF 44
9.3%
0.0
Q4 13:36
Liam Szarka run for 5 yds to the AF 49
9.3%
0.0
Q4 13:23
Liam Szarka run for 4 yds to the BOIS 47 for a 1ST down
9.3%
0.0
Q4 12:44
Liam Szarka pass complete to Cade Harris for 23 yds to the BOIS 24 for a 1ST down
9.9%
+0.6
Q4 12:00
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the BOIS 22
10.5%
+0.6
Q4 11:32
Liam Szarka run for 6 yds to the BOIS 16
10.1%
-0.4
Q4 10:54
Liam Szarka run for 1 yd to the BOIS 15
10.1%
0.0
Q4 10:19
Liam Szarka run for 3 yds to the BOIS 12 for a 1ST down
9.3%
-0.9
Q4 9:44
Liam Szarka pass complete to Quin Smith for 12 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
26.6%
+17.3
BOIS · Drive 18TD · 9 plays · 75 yds
Q4 9:44
Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
24.1%
-2.5
Q4 9:36
Dylan Riley run for 3 yds to the BOIS 28
15.3%
-8.8
Q4 9:01
Dylan Riley run for 27 yds to the AF 45 for a 1ST down
15.2%
0.0
Q4 8:21
Boise State Penalty, (-10 Yards) to the BOIS 49
13.7%
-1.6
Q4 7:34
Malik Sherrod run for 15 yds to the AF 36
13.4%
-0.2
Q4 7:15
Sire Gaines run for 13 yds to the AF 23 for a 1ST down
13.2%
-0.2
Q4 6:41
Sire Gaines run for 11 yds to the AF 12 for a 1ST down
13.4%
+0.1
Q4 5:56
Dylan Riley run for 4 yds to the AF 8
12.9%
-0.4
Q4 5:18
Dylan Riley run for 8 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
3.2%
-9.7
AF · Drive 19TD · 7 plays · 75 yds
Q4 5:18
Colton Boomer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
3.2%
0.0
Q4 5:12
Cade Harris run for 6 yds to the AF 31
6.1%
+2.9
Q4 4:26
Liam Szarka pass complete to Cade Harris for 29 yds to the BOIS 40 for a 1ST down
5.4%
-0.7
Q4 4:05
Liam Szarka run for 4 yds to the BOIS 36
5.3%
-0.1
Q4 3:21
Liam Szarka pass complete to Quin Smith for 32 yds to the BOIS 4 for a 1ST down
5.0%
-0.3
Q4 2:57
Liam Szarka run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 5
4.9%
-0.1
Q4 2:26
Liam Szarka pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 5 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
18.6%
+13.7
BOIS · Drive 20TD · 6 plays · 50 yds
Q4 2:24
Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 10 yds
15.6%
-3.0
Q4 2:19
Dylan Riley run for 5 yds to the AF 45
8.9%
-6.8
Q4 2:19
Timeout Air Force, clock 02:19
8.9%
+0.1
Q4 2:15
Dylan Riley run for 2 yds to the AF 43
8.9%
0.0
Q4 2:15
Timeout Air Force, clock 02:15
8.8%
-0.2
Q4 2:08
Dylan Riley run for 43 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
2.9%
-5.8
AF · Drive 21INT · 10 plays · 42 yds
Q4 2:08
Colton Boomer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
3.0%
0.0
Q4 2:03
Liam Szarka pass complete to Cade Harris for 20 yds to the AF 45 for a 1ST down
4.2%
+1.3
Q4 1:56
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Quin Smith
4.1%
-0.1
Q4 1:50
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Tre Roberson
4.1%
0.0
Q4 1:45
Liam Szarka pass complete to Cade Harris for 11 yds to the BOIS 44 for a 1ST down
4.1%
0.0
Q4 1:33
Liam Szarka sacked by Malakai Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 45
4.2%
+0.1
Q4 1:33
Timeout Air Force, clock 01:33
4.2%
0.0
Q4 1:26
Liam Szarka run for 12 yds to the BOIS 33 for a 1ST down
4.2%
0.0
Q4 1:04
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Cade Harris
4.5%
+0.3
Q4 0:55
Liam Szarka pass intercepted Ty Benefield return for 23 yds to the BOIS 38
4.5%
0.0
BOIS · Drive 22END OF GAME · 2 plays · -3 yds
Q4 0:35
(00:42) Kneel down by Boise St. at BS37 for loss of 1 yard.
3.3%
-1.2
Q4 0:00
(00:28) Kneel down by Boise St. at BS35 for loss of 2 yards.
3.3%
0.0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q3 13:52
Timeout Air Force, clock 13:52
-20.5
KEY PLAY · Q3 13:52
Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+18.4
TD · Q3 0:58
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Dylan Riley for 75 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
-17.9