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AF

Air Force 30 at Utah State 49

USU
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Maverik Stadium
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Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:02 · Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Adam Hrynciw
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Offense timeoutsDefense timeoutsHome team on offensePregame priorTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:04: L. Szarka run for 1 yd for a TD (J. Medina KICK) — USU win probability +4.3 pts (now 30%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  2. TD · Q3 12:36: Anthony Garcia 17 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick) — USU win probability +10.7 pts (now 45%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  3. TD · Q3 9:19: Bryson Barnes 11 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick) — USU win probability +36.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:25: Braden Pegan 38 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Rinker Kick) — USU win probability +29.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:30: Liam Szarka 1 Yd Run (Cade Harris Run for Two-Point Conversion) — AF win probability +28.7 pts (now 39%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5AF made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 7:39AF 4th & 8 at AF 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:27USU 4th & 5 at USU 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:46AF 4th & 9 at USU 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.6%
    84% to make
    Punt
    46.0%−3.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:04AF 4th & 1 at USU 1, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    50.8%−1.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    47.0%−5.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:41USU 4th & 18 at USU 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−1.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:50AF 4th & 1 at AF 37, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    46.6%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:39USU 4th & 5 at AF 42, up 4
    Close callPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    54.0%−0.8
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:24AF 4th & 1 at AF 40, down 4
    Close callPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:18AF 4th & 8 at AF 27, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:52AF 4th & 5 at USU 12, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.0%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    10.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−8.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:21AF 4th & 1 at USU 1, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    15.5%−3.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−11.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:44USU 4th & 2 at USU 38, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%−3.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:15AF 4th & 12 at AF 23, down 3
    Numbers favored punt by 3.8 ptsWent for it · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.2%−3.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    30.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:10USU 4th & 15 at AF 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−6.4
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    57.6%−20.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4AF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:04USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 12:36USU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:19USU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:25USU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:30AF Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    10.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    10.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1FUMBLE
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:3061% → 63%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
39.3%
Josh Johnson run for 2 yds to the AF 27Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
38.6%
Dylan Carson run for 7 yds to the AF 34Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
38.0%
Josh Johnson run for 1 yd to the AF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
37.3%
Cade Harris run for a loss of 6 yards to the AF 29Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 16
OWN 29
-2
36.9%
Josh Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the AF 27 Josh Johnson fumbled, recovered by USU William HolmesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2TD
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:2337% → 36%
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
37.3%
Miles Davis run for 2 yds to the AF 25Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+16
36.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Javen Jacobs for 16 yds to the AF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
36.7%
Javen Jacobs run for no gain to the AF 9Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
36.2%
Bryson Barnes run for 7 yds to the AF 2Similar
Q1 10:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
35.6%
Utah State Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the AF 7Similar
Q1 10:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
35.9%
Bryson Barnes 7 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:2562% → 63%
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
37.6%
Dylan Carson run for 6 yds to the AF 31Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
37.6%
Johnson,Josh rush middle , fumble by Johnson,Josh recovered by AFA Johnson,Josh, Johnson,Josh rush. Josh Johnson fumbled, recovered by AF Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
36.7%
Josh Johnson run for 4 yds to the AF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
36.4%
Josh Johnson pass incomplete to Quin SmithSimilar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
36.5%
Owen Allen run for 2 yds to the AF 37Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
36.3%
Josh Johnson pass incomplete to Kade FrewSimilar
Q1 7:39
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
36.6%
Luke Freer punt for 60 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0033% → 31%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
32.8%
Miles Davis run for no gain to the USU 3Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 10
OWN 3
-2
32.3%
Bryson Barnes run for a loss of 2 yards to the USU 1Similar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 12
OWN 1
+7
30.7%
Bryson Barnes run for 7 yds to the USU 8Similar
Q1 5:27
4TH & 5
OWN 8
0
30.5%
Landon Rehkow punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5FG
12 plays · 39 yds · 5:3966% → 67%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
34.5%
Owen Allen run for 6 yds to the USU 47Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+3
34.2%
Owen Allen run for 3 yds to the USU 44Similar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+3
34.0%
Liam Szarka run for 3 yds to the USU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
33.9%
Liam Szarka run for 6 yds to the USU 35Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+10
33.2%
Liam Szarka run for 10 yds to the USU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
32.3%
Owen Allen run for 3 yds to the USU 22Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+6
32.0%
Owen Allen run for 6 yds to the USU 16Similar
Q1 1:16
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+1
31.6%
Owen Allen run for 1 yd to the USU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
30.6%
Cade Harris run for 1 yd to the USU 14Similar
Q2 14:59
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
30.3%
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Quin Smith, broken up by Brevin HamblinSimilar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 9
OPP 14
0
31.8%
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Quin SmithSimilar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 9
OPP 14
+31
33.3%
J. Medina 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 88 yds · 1:4229% → 29%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
28.8%
Javen Jacobs run for 1 yd to the USU 13Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+15
28.4%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 15 yds to the USU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
28.3%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Javen Jacobs for 6 yds to the USU 34Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+12
28.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Brady Boyd for 12 yds to the USU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
29.2%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Broc LaneSimilar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+54
28.5%
Braden Pegan 54 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Rinker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5972% → 70%
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
28.5%
Liam Szarka run for 5 yds to the AF 30Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
27.9%
Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the AF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
27.6%
Dylan Carson run for 6 yds to the AF 41Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+49
26.4%
Cade Harris run for 49 yds to the USU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
25.9%
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the USU 6Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
26.6%
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the USU 3Similar
Q2 9:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
26.1%
Liam Szarka run for 2 yds to the USU 1Similar
Q2 9:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
30.4%
L. Szarka run for 1 yd for a TD (J. Medina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:2328% → 28%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
28.0%
Miles Davis run for 12 yds to the USU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
28.4%
Utah State Penalty, false start (Jr Sia) to the USU 32Similar
Q2 8:24
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+3
27.7%
Miles Davis run for 3 yds to the USU 35Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 12
OWN 35
-3
29.6%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Jackson Adams for a loss of 3 yards to the USU 32Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 15
OWN 32
-3
28.7%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Isaac Hubert for a loss of 3 yards to the USU 29Similar
Q2 6:41
4TH & 18
OWN 29
0
27.6%
Landon Rehkow punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9INT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:5469% → 70%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
31.1%
Owen Allen run for 5 yds to the AF 33Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+3
30.4%
Liam Szarka run for 3 yds to the AF 36Similar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+1
30.3%
Owen Allen run for 1 yd to the AF 37Similar
Q2 4:50
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+2
31.1%
Liam Szarka run for 2 yds to the AF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
29.4%
Owen Allen run for no gain to the AF 39Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
29.6%
Liam Szarka pass intercepted Noah Avinger return for no gain to the USU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 1:5428% → 21%
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
28.1%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 13 yds to the USU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
29.3%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Brady BoydSimilar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+7
28.9%
Bryson Barnes run for 7 yds to the USU 46Similar
Q2 2:34
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+7
31.0%
Javen Jacobs run for 7 yds to the AF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
22.2%
Javen Jacobs run for 7 yds to the AF 40Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 3
OPP 40
0
22.3%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Braden PeganSimilar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 3
OPP 40
-2
21.6%
Javen Jacobs run for a loss of 2 yards to the AF 42Similar
Q2 1:39
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
20.6%
Landon Rehkow punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 26 yds · 1:1078% → 78%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+17
22.1%
Dylan Carson run for 17 yds to the AF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
21.6%
Liam Szarka sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the AF 21 Air Force Penalty, intentional grounding (Liam Szarka) to the AF 21Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 20
OWN 21
+5
22.4%
Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the AF 26Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 15
OWN 26
+14
22.9%
Owen Allen run for 14 yds to the AF 40Similar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+59
21.8%
Luke Freer punt for 59 yds Utah State Penalty, Offensive holding (Chris Joe) to the USU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0620% → 18%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
19.7%
Bryson Barnes run for 1 yd to the USU 2Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+3
18.7%
Bryson Barnes run for 3 yds to the USU 5Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+7
18.1%
Bryson Barnes run for 7 yds to the AF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2431% → 45%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
31.1%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 9 yds to the USU 34Similar
Q3 14:43
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+13
32.3%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 13 yds to the USU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
33.3%
Miles Davis run for 2 yds to the USU 49Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+5
33.1%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 5 yds to the AF 46Similar
Q3 13:19
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+15
32.3%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Braden Pegan for a 1ST down Air Force Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Korey Johnson) to the AF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
34.4%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Javen Jacobs for 14 yds to the AF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
45.1%
Anthony Garcia 17 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1849% → 48%
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
51.1%
Owen Allen run for 1 yd to the AF 26Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
50.6%
Cade Harris run for 1 yd to the AF 27Similar
Q3 11:23
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
51.7%
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Cade HarrisSimilar
Q3 11:18
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+5
52.5%
Luke Freer punt for 51 yds , Javen Jacobs returns for 5 yds to the USU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15TD
5 plays · 73 yds · 1:4943% → 83%
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+30
43.1%
Miles Davis run for 30 yds to the AF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
44.7%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Josh Sterzer for 18 yds to the AF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
46.5%
Miles Davis run for 2 yds to the AF 23Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+12
46.7%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Noah White for 12 yds to the AF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
83.0%
Bryson Barnes 11 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:5823% → 42%
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
76.7%
Terrence Gist run for 3 yds to the AF 28Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
75.0%
Josh Johnson run for 8 yds to the AF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+36
75.3%
Josh Johnson pass complete to Cade Harris for 36 yds to the USU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
73.8%
Cade Harris run for 11 yds to the USU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
75.4%
Terrence Gist run for 3 yds to the USU 14Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+1
74.7%
Josh Johnson run for 1 yd to the USU 13Similar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 6
OPP 13
-1
79.4%
Cade Harris run for 9 yds Air Force Penalty, Offensive holding (Tre Roberson) to the USU 14Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+2
79.5%
Cade Harris run for 2 yds to the USU 12Similar
Q3 4:52
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+5
79.7%
Cade Harris run for 5 yds to the USU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
81.8%
Owen Allen run for 4 yds to the USU 3Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
77.6%
Owen Allen run for 2 yds to the USU 1Similar
Q3 3:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
70.5%
Josh Johnson run for no gain to the USU 1Similar
Q3 2:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-62
54.5%
Liam Szarka run for no gain to the AF 35Similar
Q3 2:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.4%
Owen Allen 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5462% → 95%
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
61.6%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Brady Boyd for 17 yds to the USU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
64.8%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Brady Boyd for 19 yds to the AF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
66.1%
Miles Davis run for 1 yd to the AF 38Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
66.0%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Josh SterzerSimilar
Q3 0:25
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+38
95.1%
Braden Pegan 38 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Rinker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5513% → 39%
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
87.2%
Kade Frew run for 8 yds to the AF 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+32
86.0%
Josh Johnson pass complete to Quin Smith for 32 yds to the USU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+27
85.5%
Josh Johnson pass complete to Cade Harris for 27 yds to the USU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
89.0%
Owen Allen run for 2 yds to the USU 6Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
90.2%
Josh Johnson run for 5 yds to the USU 1Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.5%
Liam Szarka 1 Yd Run (Cade Harris Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4638% → 43%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
38.2%
Bryson Barnes run for 6 yds to the USU 36Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+2
40.8%
Miles Davis run for 2 yds to the USU 38Similar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 2
OWN 38
0
44.7%
Bryson Barnes run for no gain to the USU 38Similar
Q4 10:44
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
42.5%
Landon Rehkow punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20INT
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:2356% → 47%
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
43.9%
Josh Johnson pass incomplete to Quin Smith, broken up by Brevin HamblinSimilar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
44.6%
Josh Johnson run for no gain to the AF 12Similar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+13
46.6%
Josh Johnson run for 13 yds to the AF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
46.3%
Owen Allen run for 2 yds to the AF 27Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-7
46.2%
Josh Johnson sacked by John Miller for a loss of 7 yards to the AF 20Similar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+3
46.4%
Josh Johnson pass complete to Kade Frew for 3 yds to the AF 23Similar
Q4 7:15
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+14
52.8%
Josh Johnson pass complete to Tre Roberson for 14 yds to the AF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:3962% → 72%
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
61.8%
Utah State Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the AF 38Similar
Q4 6:37
1ST & 15
OPP 38
0
58.2%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 15
OPP 38
+24
59.0%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Brady Boyd for 24 yds to the AF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
64.6%
Javen Jacobs run for 2 yds to the AF 12Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+4
64.9%
Javen Jacobs run for 4 yds to the AF 8Similar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 4
OPP 8
-11
64.9%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Daniel Grobe and Brody Bujnoch for a loss of 11 yards to the AF 19Similar
Q4 4:10
4TH & 15
OPP 19
+46
64.9%
Tanner Rinker 36 yd FG GOOD for a 1ST down Air Force Penalty, personal foul (Roger Jones Jr.) to the AF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
71.7%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Anthony Garcia for 2 yds to the AF 7Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
71.8%
Bryson Barnes 7 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 2:1935% → 65%
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
64.6%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 7 yds to the AF 29Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+8
63.0%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Tre Roberson for 8 yds to the AF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
65.9%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 5 yds to the AF 42Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+29
66.6%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Tre Roberson for 29 yds to the USU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
66.7%
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Tre RobersonSimilar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+5
67.4%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Tylor Latham for 5 yds to the USU 24Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+13
37.3%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Quin Smith for 13 yds to the USU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-62
34.6%
Cade Harris run for no gain to the AF 35 Cade Harris fumbled, recovered by AFSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
34.6%
Liam Szarka 11 Yd Run ( Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 23TD
3 plays · 52 yds · 0:0960% → 63%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 14
OWN 48
0
60.2%
Javen Jacobs run for no gain to the USU 48Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 14
OWN 48
+52
62.5%
Javen Jacobs 52 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 24Uncategorized
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:1256% → 55%
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
43.7%
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Tylor Latham, broken up by Brevin HamblinSimilar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
46.3%
Liam Szarka run for 6 yds to the AF 36Similar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+6
46.5%
Kaden Cloud run for 6 yds to the AF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
44.9%
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Kaden CloudSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
46.5%
Terrence Gist run for 3 yds to the AF 45Similar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
45.4%
Liam Szarka pass incomplete to Adam HrynciwSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+54.6
TD · Q3 9:19
Bryson Barnes 11 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)
+36.3
TD · Q3 0:25
Braden Pegan 38 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Rinker Kick)
+29
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com