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UNCO

Northern Colorado 17 at Colorado State 21

CSU
2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Canvas Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadUNCO aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreUNCO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Eric Gibson Jr. pass intercepted Jahari Rogers return for 16 yds to the CSU 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:14: Aliou-Rocco Traore run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Willig KICK) — UNCO win probability +11.3 pts (now 38%) (top driver: UNCO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:25: Lloyd Avant run for 6 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — CSU win probability +21.5 pts (now 76%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:18: Brandon Johnson run for 2 yds to the UNCO 42 — UNCO win probability +23.2 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UNCO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:44: Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 13 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — CSU win probability +58.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. INT · Q4 0:00: Eric Gibson Jr. pass intercepted Jahari Rogers return for 16 yds to the CSU 16 — UNCO win probability +18.2 pts (now 43%) (top driver: UNCO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UNCO made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 13:31CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:29UNCO 4th & 3 at UNCO 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:17CSU 4th & 6 at UNCO 29, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.0%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    94.6%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:10UNCO 4th & 6 at UNCO 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:01UNCO 4th & 1 at CSU 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.3%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:59UNCO 4th & 13 at CSU 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:12UNCO 4th & 4 at CSU 6, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.9%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    9.6%−2.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:56CSU 4th & 2 at UNCO 16, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    81.0%−0.5
    81% to make
    Punt
    78.1%−3.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:43UNCO 4th & 11 at UNCO 14, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−1.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:32UNCO 4th & 8 at CSU 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    18.3%−0.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    18.7%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:05UNCO 4th & 12 at midfield, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−2.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:30CSU 4th & 17 at CSU 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−5.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:14UNCO 4th & 7 at UNCO 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−1.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:49UNCO 4th & 5 at UNCO 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UNCO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:37UNCO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 13:23CSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:14UNCO Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:25CSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:44CSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.7%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:2198% → 98%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
98.3%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Fowler-Nicolosi,Brayden pass incomplete deep right to Ross,Jordan thrown to UNC25 PENALTY UNC Pass Interference (Jones,Derrick) 15 yards from CSU25 to CSU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
98.3%
PENALTY CSU False Start (Urionabarrenechea,Aitor) 5 yards from CSU40 to CSU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:39
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+6
98.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Javion Kinnard for 6 yds to the CSU 41Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+3
98.2%
Jalen Dupree run for 3 yds to the CSU 44Similar
Q1 13:39
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
98.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Tommy MaherSimilar
Q1 13:31
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
98.2%
Bryan Hansen punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:532% → 2%
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
98.1%
Eric Gibson Jr. pass complete to Aliou-Rocco Traore for 3 yds to the UNCO 23Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
98.1%
Aliou-Rocco Traore run for 5 yds to the UNCO 28Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-1
98.0%
Aliou-Rocco Traore run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNCO 27Similar
Q1 11:29
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
97.9%
Leo Blumentritt punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1798% → 98%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+21
97.9%
Javion Kinnard run for 21 yds to the UNCO 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
97.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Tay LanierSimilar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
97.9%
Justin Marshall run for 3 yds to the UNCO 43Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 7
OPP 43
-18
97.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi sacked by Ezra Ekuban for a loss of 18 yards to the CSU 39 Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi fumbled, recovered by UNCO Brennen Acosta , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 4TD
7 plays · 39 yds · 3:202% → 3%
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
97.7%
Aliou-Rocco Traore run for 3 yds to the CSU 36Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+7
97.6%
Eric Gibson Jr. pass complete to Carver Cheeks for 7 yds to the CSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
97.4%
Brandon Johnson run for no gain to the CSU 29Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+6
97.4%
Eric Gibson Jr. run for 6 yds to the CSU 23Similar
Q1 7:39
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+8
97.3%
Eric Gibson Jr. pass complete to Carver Cheeks for 8 yds to the CSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
97.2%
Justin Guin run for 14 yds to the CSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.7%
Kia'i Keone run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Willig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5MISSED FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 3:1197% → 96%
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
96.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 11 yds to the CSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
96.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Jordan RossSimilar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+20
96.7%
Lloyd Avant run for 20 yds to the UNCO 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
96.7%
Lloyd Avant run for 11 yds to the UNCO 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-3
96.6%
Lloyd Avant run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNCO 36Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 13
OPP 36
+7
96.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jordan Ross for 7 yds to the UNCO 29Similar
Q1 3:19
3RD & 6
OPP 29
0
96.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Tommy MaherSimilar
Q1 3:17
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+46
96.1%
Isaiah Hankins 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:594% → 4%
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
95.8%
Brandon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNCO 28Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 11
OWN 28
0
95.7%
Eric Gibson Jr. pass incomplete to Carver CheeksSimilar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 11
OWN 28
+5
95.7%
Northern Colorado Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 2:10
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
95.6%
Leo Blumentritt punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7INT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:5496% → 95%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
95.5%
Jalen Dupree run for 4 yds to the CSU 34Similar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+7
95.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 7 yds to the CSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
95.3%
Justin Marshall run for 4 yds to the CSU 45Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
95.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Jaxxon WarrenSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+10
94.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for 10 yds to the UNCO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
95.1%
Tahj Bullock run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNCO 46Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 11
OPP 46
0
94.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 8PUNT
13 plays · 33 yds · 5:046% → 9%
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
94.3%
Aliou-Rocco Traore run for 1 yd to the UNCO 19Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+25
94.0%
Eric Gibson Jr. pass complete to Dawson Menegatti for 10 yds to the UNCO 29 for a 1ST down Colorado State Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Jeremy Naborne) to the UNCO 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
93.5%
Justin Guin run for 1 yd to the UNCO 45Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+7
93.2%
Justin Guin run for 7 yds to the CSU 48Similar
Q2 11:31
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+1
92.7%
Kia'i Keone run for 1 yd to the CSU 47Similar
Q2 11:01
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+1
92.4%
Aliou-Rocco Traore run for 1 yd to the CSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
91.7%
Aliou-Rocco Traore run for a loss of 2 yards to the CSU 48Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+4
91.2%
Eric Gibson Jr. pass complete to Brayden Munroe for 4 yds to the CSU 44Similar
Q2 9:07
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
90.8%
Eric Gibson Jr. pass incomplete to Carver CheeksSimilar
Q2 9:07
4TH & 8
OPP 44
-5
91.1%
PENALTY UNC Delay Of Game 5 yards from CSU44 to CSU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:59
4TH & 13
OPP 49
+37
91.5%
Leo Blumentritt punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 9FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3810% → 12%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
90.3%
Aliou-Rocco Traore run for no gain to the CSU 12Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+5
89.9%
Justin Guin run for 5 yds to the CSU 7Similar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+1
89.0%
Eric Gibson Jr. pass complete to Aliou-Rocco Traore for 1 yd to the CSU 6Similar
Q2 7:12
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+23
88.3%
Jacob Willig 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10DOWNS
14 plays · 60 yds · 5:0888% → 82%
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
88.3%
Jalen Dupree run for a loss of 2 yards to the CSU 23Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
88.0%
Justin Marshall run for 4 yds to the CSU 27Similar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
87.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 9 yds to the CSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
87.3%
Lloyd Avant run for 6 yds to the CSU 42Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+6
87.1%
Tahj Bullock run for 6 yds to the CSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
86.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jaxxon Warren for 16 yds to the UNCO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
86.3%
Lloyd Avant run for 7 yds to the UNCO 29Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+5
86.2%
Tahj Bullock run for 5 yds to the UNCO 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
85.4%
Javion Kinnard run for 1 yd to the UNCO 23Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
84.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Jaxxon WarrenSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+7
84.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jordan Ross for 7 yds to the UNCO 16Similar
Q2 1:56
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+1
82.1%
Tahj Bullock run for 1 yd to the UNCO 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 11PUNT
8 plays · -1 yds · 1:0517% → 14%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
83.2%
Justin Guin run for no gain to the UNCO 15Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-5
83.3%
PENALTY UNC False Start (Bacon,Jack) 5 yards from UNC15 to UNC10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 15
OWN 10
+2
85.6%
Justin Guin run for 2 yds to the UNCO 12Similar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 13
OWN 12
+2
86.8%
Justin Guin run for 2 yds to the UNCO 14Similar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 11
OWN 14
+29
86.1%
Leo Blumentritt punt for 40 yds , Tommy Maher returns for 29 yds to the UNCO 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 31 yds · 0:1816% → 23%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
84.3%
Eric Gibson Jr. pass complete to Carver Cheeks for 4 yds to the UNCO 29Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
83.2%
Eric Gibson Jr. pass complete to Aliou-Rocco Traore for 7 yds to the UNCO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
77.4%
Colorado State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Lavon Brown) to the CSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 13FUMBLE
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3920% → 21%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
80.3%
Justin Guin run for 5 yds to the UNCO 30Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-3
78.9%
Eric Gibson Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNCO 12 Eric Gibson Jr. fumbled, recovered by CSU Owen LongSimilar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-3
78.9%
Eric Gibson Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNCO 12 Eric Gibson Jr. fumbled, recovered by CSU Owen LongSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14TD
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:4281% → 88%
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
81.0%
Tahj Bullock run for 6 yds to the UNCO 6Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+4
79.9%
(13:28) No Huddle-Shotgun Fowler-Nicolosi,Brayden pass incomplete short right to Lanier,Tay thrown to UNC00 broken up by Jones,Derrick PENALTY UNC Pass Interference (Jones,Derrick) 4 yards from UNC06 to UNC02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
87.9%
Lloyd Avant run for 2 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 15TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:5715% → 38%
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
84.7%
Eric Gibson Jr. pass complete to Carver Cheeks for 6 yds to the UNCO 31Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
83.4%
Eric Gibson Jr. pass incomplete to Dawson MenegattiSimilar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+13
84.0%
Eric Gibson Jr. pass complete to Dawson Menegatti for 13 yds to the UNCO 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
82.0%
Eric Gibson Jr. pass complete to Brayden Munroe for 14 yds to the CSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
81.3%
Eric Gibson Jr. pass incomplete to Brayden MunroeSimilar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
81.2%
Justin Guin run for 2 yds to the CSU 40Similar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 8
OPP 40
0
80.4%
Eric Gibson Jr. pass incomplete to Fisher ClementsSimilar
Q3 10:32
4TH & 8
OPP 40
+29
81.5%
Eric Gibson Jr. pass complete to Carver Cheeks for 29 yds to the CSU 11 for a 1ST down Colorado State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
78.4%
Justin Guin run for 1 yd to the CSU 10Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+4
76.4%
Kia'i Keone run for 4 yds to the CSU 6Similar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+3
76.7%
(09:00) Shotgun Keone,Kia'i rush middle for 0 yards to the CSU06 (Jarmolowich,Jake; Evans,JaQues) PENALTY CSU Face Mask (Evans,JaQues) 3 yards from CSU06 to CSU03, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
74.6%
Aliou-Rocco Traore run for 2 yds to the CSU 1Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
73.6%
Kia'i Keone run for no gain to the CSU 1Similar
Q3 7:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.3%
Aliou-Rocco Traore run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Willig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:4163% → 76%
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
63.4%
Jalen Dupree run for 9 yds to the CSU 34Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
63.8%
Jalen Dupree run for 7 yds to the CSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
61.7%
Jalen Dupree run for 5 yds to the CSU 46Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+16
60.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jalen Dupree for 16 yds to the UNCO 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
60.5%
Jalen Dupree run for 7 yds to the UNCO 31Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+4
60.2%
Justin Marshall run for 4 yds to the UNCO 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
59.0%
Justin Marshall run for 7 yds to the UNCO 20Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+3
58.1%
Jalen Dupree run for 3 yds to the UNCO 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
56.3%
Jalen Dupree run for 4 yds to the UNCO 13Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+7
54.7%
Lloyd Avant run for 7 yds to the UNCO 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
76.2%
Lloyd Avant run for 6 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:2032% → 34%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
67.8%
(01:28) Gibson,Eric pass incomplete short left to Cheeks,Carver thrown to UNC35 broken up by Joe,Lemondre, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY CSU Pass Interference (Joe,Lemondre) 10 yards from UNC25 to UNC35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
66.4%
Brandon Johnson run for no gain to the UNCO 35Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+17
65.7%
Eric Gibson Jr. pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 17 yds to the CSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
61.4%
Brandon Johnson run for no gain to the CSU 48Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
61.6%
Eric Gibson Jr. pass incomplete to Dawson MenegattiSimilar
Q4 14:42
3RD & 10
OPP 48
-2
62.6%
Eric Gibson Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:05
4TH & 12
50
0
65.6%
Leo Blumentritt punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 4 yds · 3:2765% → 51%
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+7
64.5%
Jalen Dupree run for 7 yds to the CSU 8Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 3
OWN 8
+2
63.5%
Jalen Dupree run for 2 yds to the CSU 10Similar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 1
OWN 10
+2
61.7%
Tahj Bullock run for 2 yds to the CSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-7
61.0%
Colorado State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-7 Yards) to the CSU 7Similar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 15
OWN 7
+5
58.9%
Lloyd Avant run for 5 yds to the CSU 12Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+3
58.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jalen Dupree for 3 yds to the CSU 9Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 13
OWN 9
0
54.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Tommy MaherSimilar
Q4 10:42
4TH & 13
OWN 9
-4
52.9%
PENALTY CSU Illegal Substitution 4 yards from CSU09 to CSU05. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:30
4TH & 17
OWN 5
0
50.8%
Bryan Hansen punt for 58 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 2:1251% → 53%
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
49.4%
Aliou-Rocco Traore run for 2 yds to the UNCO 39Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-1
46.1%
Justin Guin run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNCO 38Similar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+2
46.7%
Eric Gibson Jr. pass complete to Dawson Menegatti for 2 yds to the UNCO 40Similar
Q4 8:14
4TH & 7
OWN 40
+5
46.8%
Leo Blumentritt punt for 41 yds , Tommy Maher returns for 5 yds to the CSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20FUMBLE
6 plays · 51 yds · 2:4052% → 54%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
52.3%
Justin Marshall run for 6 yds to the CSU 30Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+5
54.0%
Justin Marshall run for 5 yds to the CSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
50.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Lavon Brown for 14 yds to the CSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
54.2%
Justin Marshall run for 4 yds to the UNCO 47Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+17
53.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for 17 yds to the UNCO 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
54.1%
Lloyd Avant run for 5 yds to the UNCO 40 Lloyd Avant fumbled, recovered by UNCO Sione TuhaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2969% → 70%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
30.9%
Brandon Johnson run for 2 yds to the UNCO 42Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+3
28.5%
Eric Gibson Jr. pass complete to Aliou-Rocco Traore for 3 yds to the UNCO 45Similar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
27.1%
Eric Gibson Jr. pass incomplete to Brayden MunroeSimilar
Q4 3:49
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
30.1%
Leo Blumentritt punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22TD
14 plays · 77 yds · 3:0141% → 94%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
41.4%
Jalen Dupree run for 2 yds to the CSU 25Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+9
39.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tommy Maher for 9 yds to the CSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
40.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Jordan RossSimilar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+11
40.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jordan Ross for 11 yds to the CSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
40.5%
Jalen Dupree run for 7 yds to the UNCO 48Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+8
42.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for 8 yds to the UNCO 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
34.8%
Tay Lanier pass complete to Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi for 9 yds to the UNCO 31Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 1
OPP 31
0
38.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Petey TuckerSimilar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+4
33.8%
Tahj Bullock run for 4 yds to the UNCO 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
36.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for 14 yds to the UNCO 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
34.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Petey TuckerSimilar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
35.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Jordan RossSimilar
Q4 0:44
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+13
93.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 13 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 23INT
11 plays · 47 yds · 0:4023% → 43%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.5%
Eric Gibson Jr. pass incomplete to Luke WootenSimilar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+29
78.4%
Eric Gibson Jr. pass complete to Brayden Munroe for 29 yds to the CSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
68.9%
(00:27) Shotgun Gibson,Eric pass incomplete deep right to Menegatti,Dawson thrown to CSU15 PENALTY CSU Roughing The Passer 15 yards from CSU46 to CSU31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
65.3%
Eric Gibson Jr. pass incomplete to Brayden MunroeSimilar
Q4 0:13
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+3
61.9%
Eric Gibson Jr. pass complete to Dawson Menegatti for 3 yds to the CSU 28Similar
Q4 0:08
3RD & 7
OPP 28
0
65.2%
Eric Gibson Jr. pass incomplete to Carver CheeksSimilar
Q4 0:08
4TH & 7
OPP 28
-15
68.9%
PENALTY UNC UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Cheeks,Carver) 15 yards from CSU28 to CSU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:01
4TH & 22
OPP 43
+15
75.4%
(00:08) Shotgun Gibson,Eric pass incomplete deep left to Menegatti,Dawson thrown to CSU05 broken up by Rogers,Jahari PENALTY CSU Pass Interference (Blocker,CJ) 15 yards from CSU43 to CSU28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-16
57.2%
Eric Gibson Jr. pass intercepted Jahari Rogers return for 16 yds to the CSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:44
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 13 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
+58.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+42.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 5:18
Brandon Johnson run for 2 yds to the UNCO 42
-23.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com