2025 · Week 2 · Sep 5, 2025 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadEWU aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreEWU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:58 · Landon Ogles punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Malik Sherrod at the BOIS 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 10:01: Sire Gaines run for 8 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK) — BOIS win probability +0.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- TD · Q1 2:49: Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ben Ford for 60 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK) — BOIS win probability +0.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:53: Jared Taylor run for 5 yds for a TD (Soren McKee KICK) — EWU win probability +1.7 pts (now 4%) (top driver: EWU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:26: Maddux Madsen run for 11 yds for a TD (Canaan Moore KICK) — BOIS win probability +1.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:55: Cameron Bates run for 20 yds for a TD (Canaan Moore KICK) — BOIS win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 6EWU made the numbers' call on 14 of 14
- Q1 7:20EWU 4th & 15 at EWU 34, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snapGo for it3.0%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.2%average punt
- Q1 6:07BOIS 4th & 1 at BOIS 13, up 13Close callPunted · 96.9% before the snapGo for it97.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 2:57EWU 4th & 5 at BOIS 40, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.4%42% to convertField goal3.4%−0.134% to makePunt3.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 2:57EWU 4th & 5 at BOIS 40, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.4%42% to convertField goal3.4%−0.134% to makePunt3.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 1:31EWU 4th & 6 at EWU 29, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.3%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.4%average punt
- Q2 13:36BOIS 4th & 9 at EWU 28, up 20Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.6% before the snapGo for it97.5%−0.131% to convertField goalTheir call97.6%60% to makePunt97.1%−0.5average punt
- Q2 8:53EWU 4th & 1 at BOIS 5, down 20Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.2%67% to convertField goal1.8%−0.492% to makePunt0.8%−1.4average punt
- Q2 4:47EWU 4th & 9 at EWU 26, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it1.9%−0.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%average punt
- Q2 3:06BOIS 4th & 11 at BOIS 37, up 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snapGo for it97.8%−0.226% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.0%average punt
- Q2 1:43EWU 4th & 3 at EWU 11, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.151% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q2 0:50BOIS 4th & 16 at EWU 17, up 20Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.3% before the snapGo for it98.0%−0.414% to convertField goalTheir call98.3%80% to makePunt97.4%−0.9average punt
- Q2 0:12EWU 4th & 21 at EWU 14, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.6%−0.38% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q2 0:12EWU 4th & 21 at EWU 14, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.6%−0.38% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q3 9:48EWU 4th & 5 at BOIS 35, down 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.8%42% to convertField goal1.7%−0.145% to makePunt1.6%−0.2average punt
- Q3 9:48EWU 4th & 5 at BOIS 35, down 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.8%42% to convertField goal1.7%−0.145% to makePunt1.6%−0.2average punt
- Q3 2:58EWU 4th & 7 at EWU 46, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 10:59EWU 4th & 10 at EWU 25, down 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 8:16BOIS 4th & 6 at EWU 6, up 37Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.131% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%91% to makePunt99.4%−0.4average punt
- Q4 1:07BOIS 4th & 5 at EWU 11, up 37Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.137% to convertField goal99.9%87% to makePunt99.6%−0.4average punt
- Q4 0:06EWU 4th & 10 at EWU 22, down 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 7EWU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 13:50BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call97.3%97% to makeGo for two97.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 10:01BOIS Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.0%97% to makeGo for two97.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:49BOIS Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.3%97% to makeGo for two97.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:53EWU Touchdown, down 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call4.2%97% to makeGo for two4.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:26BOIS Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.1%97% to makeGo for two97.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:55BOIS Touchdown, up 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:56BOIS Touchdown, up 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:54EWU Touchdown, down 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:54BOIS Touchdown, up 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBOISDrive 1TD4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5998% → 98%
EWUDrive 2FUMBLE5 plays · 16 yds · 1:382% → 2%
BOISDrive 3TD6 plays · 41 yds · 1:5798% → 98%
EWUDrive 4PUNT9 plays · 9 yds · 2:362% → 2%
Q1 7:57
3RD & 12
OWN 37
+3
97.8%
Jared Taylor pass complete to Marceese Yetts for 3 yds to the EWU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0798% → 98%
EWUDrive 6DOWNS8 plays · 21 yds · 3:062% → 3%
Q1 5:10
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+13
97.5%
Jared Taylor pass complete to Noah Cronquist for 13 yds to the BOIS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-5
97.4%
Jared Taylor sacked by Lopez Sanusi for a loss of 5 yards to the BOIS 48Similar
Q1 3:19
3RD & 13
OPP 48
+8
97.5%
Jared Taylor pass complete to Jaxon Branch for 8 yds to the BOIS 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7TD1 play · 60 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
98.2%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ben Ford for 60 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 0:592% → 2%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.2%
Jared Taylor pass complete to Landon Cooper for 5 yds to the EWU 30Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-10
98.2%
(02:23) No Huddle-Shotgun Taylor,Jared pass incomplete short left to Bell,Nate thrown to EWU35 PENALTY EWU Holding 10 yards from EWU30 to EWU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:31
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
98.3%
Landon Ogles punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Malik Sherrod at the BOIS 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9MISSED FG8 plays · 36 yds · 2:4998% → 98%
EWUDrive 10TD10 plays · 72 yds · 4:362% → 4%
BOISDrive 11TD6 plays · 80 yds · 2:1697% → 98%
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+29
97.0%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chris Marshall for 29 yds to the EWU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 1:332% → 2%
Q2 5:05
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-5
98.3%
PENALTY EWU False Start (Pruett,Cole) 5 yards from EWU31 to EWU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:47
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+16
98.3%
Landon Ogles punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BOIS 38 , Malik Sherrod returns for 16 yds to the BOIS 42 Boise State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Syncere Brackett-Lambey) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13PUNT6 plays · -1 yds · 1:3599% → 98%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
98.5%
(04:40) Shotgun Madsen,Maddux pass incomplete deep middle to Caples,Latrell thrown to EWU25 PENALTY BSU Holding (Schmidt,Hall) 10 yards from BSU38 to BSU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+5
98.4%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Dylan Riley for 5 yds to the BOIS 33Similar
Q2 3:29
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+25
98.5%
(03:29) Shotgun Madsen,Maddux pass complete deep right to Ford,Ben caught at EWU40, for 25 yards to the EWU38, End Of Play PENALTY BSU Illegal Shift offsetting EWU Offside offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 1:172% → 2%
Q2 1:55
3RD & 8
OWN 6
0
98.3%
Eastern Washington Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tylin Jackson) declinedSimilar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 8
OWN 6
+5
98.3%
(01:52) Ogles,Landon punt 35 yards to the EWU41, out of bounds at EWU41 PENALTY BSU Running Into The Kicker (Gaines,Sire) 5 yards from EWU06 to EWU11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:43
4TH & 3
OWN 11
0
98.3%
Landon Ogles punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Malik Sherrod at the EWU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15FG5 plays · 31 yds · 0:4399% → 99%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+37
98.6%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chris Marshall for 37 yds to the EWU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 16PUNT8 plays · -11 yds · 0:312% → 2%
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
98.3%
Jared Taylor pass complete to Noah Cronquist for a loss of 1 yard to the EWU 24Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-10
98.3%
(00:27) Shotgun Taylor,Jared rush left for 11 yards gain to the EWU35 (Notarainni,Marco) PENALTY EWU Holding 10 yards from EWU24 to EWU14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
98.3%
Landon Ogles punt for 50 yds , Malik Sherrod returns for no gain to the BOIS 36Similar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
98.3%
Landon Ogles punt for 50 yds , Malik Sherrod returns for no gain to the BOIS 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 18DOWNS13 plays · 40 yds · 5:032% → 2%
BOISDrive 19TD9 plays · 65 yds · 4:4299% → 100%
Q3 8:50
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+11
98.8%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Sire Gaines for 11 yds to the BOIS 41Similar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+11
98.8%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 11 yds to the EWU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
98.9%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Lauter for 8 yds to the EWU 40Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+16
99.0%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ben Ford for 16 yds to the EWU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 1:420% → 0%
BOISDrive 21TD13 plays · 90 yds · 5:55100% → 100%
Q3 2:05
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+20
99.8%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chris Marshall for 20 yds to the BOIS 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+4
99.8%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Wagner for 4 yds to the BOIS 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+46
99.8%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chris Marshall for 46 yds to the EWU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-10
99.9%
(12:47) Shotgun Gaines,Sire rush left for 1 yard gain to the EWU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 12:47 PENALTY BSU Holding (Carreon,Roger) 10 yards from EWU01 to EWU11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ben Ford for 6 yds for a TD (Canaan Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:500% → 0%
Q4 10:59
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Landon Ogles punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 23MISSED FG7 plays · 44 yds · 2:36100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 24TD9 plays · 80 yds · 4:160% → 0%
Q4 7:39
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+15
99.9%
(07:44) No Huddle-Shotgun Bell,Nate pass incomplete deep left to Ulm,Nolan thrown to EWU48 PENALTY BSU Pass Interference (Freeney,Demetrius) 15 yards from EWU26 to EWU41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:31
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+49
99.9%
Nate Bell pass complete to Noah Cronquist for 49 yds to the BOIS 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-9
99.9%
(06:05) No Huddle-Shotgun Bell,Nate rush right for 4 yards gain to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 06:06 PENALTY EWU Holding (Corning,Aidan) 9 yards from BSU04 to BSU13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+11
99.9%
Nate Bell pass complete to Kevin Allen III for 11 yds to the BOIS 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 25TD4 plays · 75 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Max Cutforth pass complete to Jaylen Webb for 2 yds to the BOIS 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 26INT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:280% → 0%
BOISDrive 27DOWNS6 plays · 9 yds · 1:48100% → 100%
Q4 2:00
3RD & 4
OPP 10
-5
100.0%
PENALTY BSU False Start (Steele,Jake) 5 yards from EWU10 to EWU15. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 28PUNT5 plays · 15 yds · 0:500% → 0%
BOISDrive 29END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:53
Jared Taylor run for 5 yds for a TD (Soren McKee KICK)
-1.7
TD · Q2 6:26
Maddux Madsen run for 11 yds for a TD (Canaan Moore KICK)
+1.3
TD · Q3 4:55
Cameron Bates run for 20 yds for a TD (Canaan Moore KICK)
+0.8