Try the model
BUCK

Bucknell 13 at Air Force 49

AF
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025 · Falcon Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadBUCK aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreBUCK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFUMBLETDTDFGFGTDFGFGEnd of GameTD—AF 99.9%Maguire Martin run for 1 yd for a TD(Reagan Tubbs KICK)AWAY 10 - HOME 49 · Q4 6:24
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:24 · Maguire Martin run for 1 yd for a TD (Reagan Tubbs KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginGarbage-time factor
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 145Pregame prior+8.4Home team on offense+34.0Score differential+29.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+18.8Blowout margin+15.8Garbage-time factor+12.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:54: Ralph Rucker IV pass complete to Sam Milligan for 12 yds for a TD (Matt Schearer KICK) — BUCK win probability +1.4 pts (now 6%) (top driver: BUCK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:54: Timeout Air Force, clock 12:54 — AF win probability +1.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:14: Dylan Carson run for 2 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK) — AF win probability +1.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:41: Josh Johnson pass complete to Cade Harris for 62 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK) — AF win probability +2.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. FUMBLE · Q3 13:04: Ralph Rucker IV run for no gain Ralph Rucker IV fumbled, recovered by AF Korey Johnson for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK) — AF win probability +1.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BUCK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BUCK made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 12:32AF 4th & 7 at AF 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:09BUCK 4th & 13 at BUCK 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:53BUCK 4th & 8 at BUCK 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 3:09BUCK 4th & 3 at BUCK 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:15AF 4th & 11 at BUCK 25, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    97.1%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:04BUCK 4th & 1 at BUCK 34, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.2%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:40BUCK 4th & 15 at BUCK 20, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:49BUCK 4th & 19 at AF 20, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 6:24AF 4th & 1 at BUCK 1, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 3:39BUCK 4th & 3 at BUCK 42, down 39
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:44BUCK 4th & 18 at AF 22, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6BUCK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:22AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:28AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:54BUCK Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:14AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:41AF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:34AF Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:24AF Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:2397% → 97%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.9%
Dylan Carson run for 6 yds to the AF 31Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+12
96.8%
Kade Frew run for 12 yds to the AF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
96.8%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the AF 45Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+1
96.7%
Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the AF 46Similar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
96.6%
Josh Johnson pass incomplete to Quin SmithSimilar
Q1 12:32
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
96.5%
Luke Freer punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BUCK 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:174% → 4%
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
96.5%
Tariq Thomas run for 11 yds to the BUCK 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
96.4%
Tariq Thomas run for 5 yds to the BUCK 27Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+6
96.3%
Ralph Rucker IV pass complete to Josh Gary for 6 yds to the BUCK 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
96.2%
Ralph Rucker IV pass complete to Charlie Kreinbucher for 14 yds to the BUCK 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
96.1%
Michael Cadden run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 7
50
-6
96.0%
Ralph Rucker IV sacked by Isaac Hubert for a loss of 6 yards to the BUCK 44Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 13
OWN 44
0
95.9%
Ralph Rucker IV pass incomplete to Josh GarySimilar
Q1 9:09
4TH & 13
OWN 44
0
96.0%
Matt Schearer punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:4796% → 96%
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
96.0%
PENALTY BU Offside (Gerke,Thomas) 5 yards from AF20 to AF25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 5
OWN 25
+9
95.9%
Cade Harris run for 9 yds to the AF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
95.8%
Kade Frew run for 14 yds to the AF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
95.8%
Josh Johnson run for 5 yds to the BUCK 47Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+4
95.7%
Josh Johnson run for 4 yds to the BUCK 43Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+3
95.6%
Owen Allen run for 3 yds to the BUCK 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
96.1%
Josh Johnson pass complete to Quin Smith for 40 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:154% → 4%
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
95.8%
Tariq Thomas run for 4 yds to the BUCK 26Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 6
OWN 26
-2
95.7%
Ralph Rucker IV sacked by Jackson Adams for a loss of 2 yards to the BUCK 24Similar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
95.7%
Ralph Rucker IV pass incomplete to TJ CaddenSimilar
Q1 4:53
4TH & 8
OWN 24
+7
95.8%
Matt Schearer punt for 44 yds , Cade Harris returns for 7 yds to the AF 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 2:1696% → 97%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
96.3%
Terrence Gist run for 4 yds to the AF 43Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+29
96.3%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Tre Roberson for 29 yds to the BUCK 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
96.3%
Terrence Gist run for 1 yd to the BUCK 27Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+18
96.3%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Cade Harris for 18 yds to the BUCK 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
97.1%
Cade Harris run for 9 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 6TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:274% → 6%
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.0%
Tariq Thomas run for 3 yds to the BUCK 28Similar
Q1 1:46
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+13
95.9%
Tariq Thomas run for 13 yds to the BUCK 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
95.8%
Logan Bush run for 4 yds to the BUCK 45Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
95.7%
Ralph Rucker IV pass incomplete to Sam MilliganSimilar
Q1 0:37
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+14
95.8%
Ralph Rucker IV pass complete to TJ Cadden for 14 yds to the AF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
95.6%
Ralph Rucker IV pass complete to AJ Bosch for 9 yds to the AF 32Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+7
95.4%
Tariq Thomas run for 7 yds to the AF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
95.3%
Michael Cadden run for 1 yd to the AF 24Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
95.3%
Ralph Rucker IV pass incomplete to TJ CaddenSimilar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+15
95.4%
(13:40) No Huddle-Shotgun Rucker IV,Ralph pass incomplete deep left to Anderson,Nate thrown to AF00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY AF Pass Interference (Brown,Levi) 15 yards from AF24 to AF09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
95.2%
Bucknell Penalty, False Start (Derrick Anderson Jr.) to the AF 14Similar
Q2 13:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+2
95.3%
Tariq Thomas run for 2 yds to the AF 12Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
93.9%
Ralph Rucker IV pass complete to Sam Milligan for 12 yds for a TD (Matt Schearer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:3395% → 96%
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
95.3%
Dylan Carson run for 17 yds to the AF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
95.5%
Bucknell Penalty, Defensive Holding (Brandon Biagiarelli) to the BUCK 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
95.5%
Cade Harris run for 2 yds to the BUCK 42Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+4
95.4%
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the BUCK 38Similar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+9
95.3%
Liam Szarka run for 9 yds to the BUCK 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
95.4%
Kade Frew run for 9 yds to the BUCK 20Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+6
95.1%
Dylan Carson run for 6 yds to the BUCK 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
95.1%
Cade Harris run for 9 yds to the BUCK 5Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 1
OPP 5
-2
94.9%
Liam Szarka run for a loss of 2 yards to the BUCK 7Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+5
94.7%
Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the BUCK 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.0%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 8INT
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:175% → 5%
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
95.5%
Tariq Thomas run for 7 yds to the BUCK 32Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
95.4%
Tariq Thomas run for 2 yds to the BUCK 34Similar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
95.5%
Tariq Thomas run for 3 yds to the BUCK 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
95.3%
Ralph Rucker IV pass complete to Jack Bohm-Squicciarini for 11 yds to the BUCK 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
95.1%
Ralph Rucker IV pass intercepted Roger Jones Jr. return for 3 yds to the AF 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9TD
2 plays · 62 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
98.4%
Josh Johnson pass complete to Cade Harris for 62 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:262% → 2%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.7%
Tariq Thomas run for 3 yds to the BUCK 28Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
97.8%
Ralph Rucker IV pass incomplete to Nate AndersonSimilar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
97.9%
Ralph Rucker IV run for 4 yds to the BUCK 32Similar
Q2 3:09
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
97.9%
Matt Schearer punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Cade Harris at the AF 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11MISSED FG
15 plays · 47 yds · 2:4899% → 98%
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
98.5%
Kade Frew run for 6 yds to the AF 34Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+4
98.5%
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the AF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
98.6%
Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the AF 39Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
98.4%
Cade Harris run for 10 yds to the AF 49 for a 1ST down Air Force Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tre Roberson) to the AF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
98.5%
Cade Harris run for 10 yds to the AF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
98.5%
Josh Johnson pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 7 yds to the BUCK 44Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+9
98.5%
Cade Harris run for 9 yds to the BUCK 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
98.6%
Josh Johnson pass incomplete to Tre RobersonSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+11
98.6%
Kade Frew run for 11 yds to the BUCK 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-4
98.6%
Josh Johnson sacked by Deuce Geter for a loss of 4 yards to the BUCK 28Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 14
OPP 28
+3
98.5%
Josh Johnson pass complete to Cade Harris for 3 yds to the BUCK 25Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 11
OPP 25
0
98.4%
Josh Johnson pass incomplete to Tre RobersonSimilar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 11
OPP 25
+42
98.2%
Jacob Medina 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:082% → 2%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
97.9%
Ralph Rucker IV pass complete to Michael Cadden for 16 yds to the BUCK 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
98.0%
Ralph Rucker IV pass complete to Michael Cadden for 8 yds to the BUCK 49Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 49
-4
97.8%
Ralph Rucker IV sacked by Lukia Rawls Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the BUCK 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 13FUMBLE TD
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:512% → 1%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.8%
Tariq Thomas run for 1 yd to the BUCK 26Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
97.8%
Ralph Rucker IV pass complete to TJ Cadden for 7 yds to the BUCK 33Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
97.7%
Tariq Thomas run for 1 yd to the BUCK 34Similar
Q3 13:04
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
99.5%
Ralph Rucker IV run for no gain Ralph Rucker IV fumbled, recovered by AF Korey Johnson for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:150% → 0%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.6%
Ty Stauffer run for 2 yds to the BUCK 27Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
99.5%
Ralph Rucker IV pass incomplete to Nate AndersonSimilar
Q3 12:23
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-7
99.6%
Ralph Rucker IV sacked by Isaac Hubert for a loss of 7 yards to the BUCK 20Similar
Q3 11:40
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
99.6%
Matt Schearer punt for 12 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15TD
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 11:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.7%
Cade Harris run for 8 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 16FG
15 plays · 55 yds · 5:390% → 1%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Tariq Thomas run for no gain to the BUCK 25Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.7%
Tariq Thomas run for 11 yds to the BUCK 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
99.7%
Michael Cadden run for 1 yd to the BUCK 37Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+19
99.7%
Ralph Rucker IV pass complete to Sam Milligan for 29 yds to the AF 34 for a 1ST down Bucknell Penalty, Illegal Block (AJ Bosch) to the AF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.7%
Tariq Thomas run for no gain to the AF 44Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+6
99.7%
Tariq Thomas run for 6 yds to the AF 38Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+11
99.7%
Michael Cadden run for 11 yds to the AF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
99.7%
Air Force Penalty, Personal Foul (Blake Fletcher) to the AF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
99.7%
Ralph Rucker IV run for 5 yds to the AF 6Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+1
99.7%
Tariq Thomas run for 1 yd to the AF 5Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 4
OPP 5
-15
99.8%
(06:02) No Huddle-Shotgun Rucker IV,Ralph pass complete short right to Gary,Josh caught at AF00, for 5 yards to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 06:00 PENALTY BU Pass Interference (Bosch,AJ) 15 yards from AF05 to AF20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 19
OPP 20
0
99.8%
Ralph Rucker IV pass incomplete to Jack Bohm-SquicciariniSimilar
Q3 5:49
4TH & 19
OPP 20
+37
99.2%
Matt Schearer 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 14:17100% → 100%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.8%
Terrence Gist run for 7 yds to the AF 32Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
99.8%
Maguire Martin run for 4 yds to the AF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
99.8%
Terrence Gist run for 7 yds to the AF 43Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 3
OWN 43
-5
99.8%
(03:44) Gist,Terrence rush left for 6 yards gain to the AF49 (Goheen,Jack) PENALTY AF Illegal Formation 5 yards from AF43 to AF38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+5
99.8%
Kaden Cloud run for 5 yds to the AF 43Similar
Q3 2:26
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+9
99.8%
Terrence Gist run for 9 yds to the BUCK 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
99.9%
Terrence Gist run for 4 yds to the BUCK 44Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+5
99.9%
Terrence Gist run for 5 yds to the BUCK 39Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+4
99.9%
Maguire Martin run for 4 yds to the BUCK 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
99.9%
Gage LaDue run for 4 yds to the BUCK 31Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+11
99.9%
Kaden Cloud run for 11 yds to the BUCK 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
99.9%
Gage LaDue run for 6 yds to the BUCK 14Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+3
99.9%
Gage LaDue run for 3 yds to the BUCK 11Similar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+2
99.9%
Maguire Martin run for 2 yds to the BUCK 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
99.9%
Gage LaDue run for 5 yds to the BUCK 4Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
99.9%
Matt Long run for 2 yds to the BUCK 2Similar
Q4 7:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.9%
Gage LaDue run for 1 yd to the BUCK 1Similar
Q4 6:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Maguire Martin run for 1 yd for a TD (Reagan Tubbs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 18FG
17 plays · 53 yds · 5:300% → 0%
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Logan Bush run for no gain to the BUCK 25Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.9%
Christopher Dietrich pass complete to Owen Garwood for 10 yds to the BUCK 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.9%
Logan Bush run for 1 yd to the BUCK 36Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+6
100.0%
Christopher Dietrich pass complete to Kaleb Lampkins for 6 yds to the BUCK 42Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
100.0%
Ty Stauffer run for no gain to the BUCK 42Similar
Q4 3:39
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+7
100.0%
Christopher Dietrich pass complete to Alex Brown for 7 yds to the BUCK 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
100.0%
Christopher Dietrich pass complete to Owen Garwood for 7 yds to the AF 44Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+6
99.9%
Christopher Dietrich pass complete to Caden Allard for 6 yds to the AF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
100.0%
Air Force Penalty, Personal Foul (Vinnie Canosa) to the AF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-9
99.9%
Christopher Dietrich sacked by Grady Forsythe for a loss of 9 yards to the AF 23Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 19
OPP 23
-5
100.0%
PENALTY BU False Start (Johal,Herschel) 5 yards from AF23 to AF28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 24
OPP 28
+7
100.0%
Christopher Dietrich pass complete to Kaleb Lampkins for 7 yds to the AF 21Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 17
OPP 21
-1
100.0%
Christopher Dietrich sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the AF 22Similar
Q4 0:44
4TH & 18
OPP 22
+39
100.0%
Matt Schearer 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:29100% → 100%
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
100.0%
(00:33) Kneel down by Air Force at AF23 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-1
100.0%
(00:13) Kneel down by Air Force at AF22 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:41
Josh Johnson pass complete to Cade Harris for 62 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
+2.2
FUMBLE · Q3 13:04
Ralph Rucker IV run for no gain Ralph Rucker IV fumbled, recovered by AF Korey Johnson for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
+1.8
TD · Q2 12:54
Timeout Air Force, clock 12:54
+1.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com