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LT

Louisiana Tech 42 at Missouri State 30

MOST
2025 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025 · Plaster Sports Complex
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Win probability · MOST
modelMOST aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playMOST scoreLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-10.8MOST 20.6%No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rushright for 2 yards gain to the MSU00TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:12, 1ST DOWN #38K.Kent kick attempt good (H: #29L.Matthews, LS: #41 E.Burch)AWAY 28 - HOME 17 · Q4 14:12
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:12 · No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush right for 2 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:12, 1ST DOWN #38 K.Kent kick attempt good (H: #29 L.Matthews, LS: #41 E.Burch)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Home team on offense−22.3Score differential−8.7Garbage-time factor−8.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.0Pregame prior+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:18: No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:18 #38 K.Kent kick attempt good (H: #29 L.Matthews, LS: #41 E.Burch) — LT win probability +17.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:25: No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 56 yards gain to the LTU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:25, 1ST DOWN #36 Y.Obeid kick attempt good (H: #25 S.McDonald, LS: #47 A.Kallas) — MOST win probability +19.1 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q4 9:30: Jeron Askren 75 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — MOST win probability +19.9 pts (now 34%) (top driver: MOST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:15: Y. Obeid kickoff for 58 yds, D. Gandy returns for 93 yds for a TD (K. Kent KICK) — LT win probability +19.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MOST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:44: R. Green Jr. run for 12 yds, for a TD (Y. Obeid KICK) — MOST win probability +18.8 pts (now 37%) (top driver: MOST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MOST made the numbers' call on 4 of 6LT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:58MOST 4th & 25 at LT 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    58.3%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:43MOST 4th & 1 at MOST 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.6%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:27MOST 4th & 10 at LT 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    54.0%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:36MOST 4th & 10 at LT 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    35.6%−3.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:25LT 4th & 9 at MOST 49, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:08LT 4th & 1 at MOST 47, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    48.7%−3.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:48MOST 4th & 19 at MOST 38, down 4
    Numbers favored punt by 3.9 ptsWent for it · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.5%−3.9
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    48.5%
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:12LT 4th & 1 at MOST 2, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.2%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    57.2%−6.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    41.2%−22.0
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:12MOST 4th & 4 at MOST 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−0.8
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.0%
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:41LT 4th & 13 at LT 15, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−3.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MOST made the numbers' call on 3 of 4LT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:43LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:54LT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:09MOST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:18LT Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:25MOST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:12LT Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:30MOST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    33.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    32.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:15LT Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.8%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:44MOST Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 3:44LT Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−1.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MOSTDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 40 yds · 4:0253% → 53%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
52.9%
Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush right for 14 yards gain to the MSU39 (#11 C.Woods; #8 J.Fields), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
52.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short left to #85 D.Hipp caught at MSU44, for 8 yards to the MSU47 (#8 J.Fields; #6 J.Foster)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 47
0
52.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete short middle to #11 M.Cope thrown to LTU40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+33
52.9%
No Huddle #12 J.Clark pass complete short right to #40 C.Lair caught at MSU49, for 33 yards to the LTU20 (#6 J.Foster), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-6
52.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark sacked for loss of 6 yards to the LTU26 (#98 D.Rieman)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 26
+1
52.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LTU25 (#91 C.Sims)Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 25
-10
52.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark sacked for loss of 10 yards to the LTU35 (#42 S.Leota)Similar
Q1 10:58
4TH & 25
OPP 35
0
53.3%
#25 S.McDonald punt 33 yards to the LTU02Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2TD
1 play · 98 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+98
51.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush right for 98 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:43, 1ST DOWN #38 K.Kent kick attempt good (H: #29 L.Matthews, LS: #41 E.Burch)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 3PUNT
15 plays · 30 yds · 6:1652% → 50%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
51.9%
Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush right for 4 yards loss to the MSU21 (#22 J.Mayfield; #98 D.Rieman)Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+12
51.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short middle to #11 M.Cope caught at MSU33, for 12 yards to the MSU33 (#7 J.Shelby Jr.)Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
51.9%
No Huddle #12 J.Clark pass complete short left to #2 S.Lawrence caught at MSU34, for 1 yard to the MSU34 (#7 J.Shelby Jr.)Similar
Q1 10:43
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
51.7%
#12 J.Clark rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU36 (#6 J.Foster), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
52.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete deep right to #0 J.Robinson thrown to LTU30Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-3
52.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush right for 3 yards loss to the MSU33 (#9 M.Mason)Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 13
OWN 33
+14
51.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short right to #9 R.Johnson caught at MSU47, for 14 yards to the MSU47 (#11 C.Woods), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
52.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush right for 5 yards loss to the MSU42 (#22 J.Mayfield)Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+8
52.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short middle to #2 S.Lawrence caught at MSU45, for 8 yards to the MSU50 (#22 J.Mayfield; #21 Z.Hill)Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 7
50
+5
52.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete short middle to #1 D.Luke thrown to LTU45 PENALTY LTU Pass Interference (#8 J.Fields) 5 yards from MSU50 to LTU45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
52.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 0 yards to the LTU45 (#42 S.Leota)Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
52.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete short middle to #1 D.Luke thrown to LTU39 broken up by #0 S.FongangSimilar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
52.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete short left to #2 S.Lawrence thrown to LTU45 broken up by #42 S.LeotaSimilar
Q1 4:27
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
49.9%
#25 S.McDonald punt 30 yards to the LTU15 fair catch by #3 D.Latulas at LTU15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 5:3350% → 61%
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
49.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass incomplete short left to #0 A.Burnette thrown to LTU10Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+3
49.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #18 M.Jackson rush left for 3 yards gain to the LTU18 (#0 M.Neal)Similar
Q1 4:27
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+24
50.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush left for 24 yards gain to the LTU42 (#29 C.Ford), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
48.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short right to #4 C.Thevenin caught at LTU40, for 4 yards to the LTU46 (#44 K.Young)Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+30
48.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short right to #4 C.Thevenin caught at LTU45, for 30 yards to the MSU24 (#14 T.Anderson), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MSU Offside declinedSimilar
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
48.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush right for 4 yards gain to the MSU20 (#6 J.Lloyd; #98 D.Barnes)Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+3
48.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Thevenin rush right for 3 yards gain to the MSU17 (#44 K.Young; #6 J.Lloyd)Similar
Q1 4:27
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+3
48.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU14 (#91 T.Brantley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
46.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush right for 9 yards gain to the MSU05 (#44 K.Young; #6 J.Lloyd)Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+4
46.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU01 (#30 C.Wiest; #6 J.Lloyd), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:54 #38 K.Kent kick attempt good (H: #29 L.Matthews, LS: #41 E.Burch)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 5FG
16 plays · 53 yds · 7:0942% → 39%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
41.6%
Shotgun #22 R.Green Jr. rush left for 8 yards gain to the MSU30 (#8 J.Fields)Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+5
42.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 R.Green Jr. rush right for 5 yards gain to the MSU35 (#94 E.Oguns), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
41.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short left to #40 C.Lair caught at MSU30, for 4 yards loss to the MSU31 (#1 M.Richard)Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+12
41.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short middle to #0 J.Robinson caught at MSU35, for 12 yards to the MSU43 (#97 C.Davis)Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+5
42.7%
No Huddle #12 J.Clark rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MSU48 (#96 Z.Nason), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
43.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 7 yards gain to the LTU45 (#20 K.McNeese; #14 J.Mcrae)Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+2
43.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush left for 2 yards gain to the LTU43 (#22 J.Mayfield; #21 Z.Hill)Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+6
43.1%
#2 S.Lawrence rush left for 6 yards gain to the LTU37 (#21 Z.Hill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
43.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 R.Green Jr. rush left for 0 yards to the LTU37 (#22 J.Mayfield)Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-3
43.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark sacked for loss of 3 yards to the LTU40 (#95 T.Vivians)Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 13
OPP 40
+15
42.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete deep right to #0 J.Robinson thrown to LTU15 PENALTY LTU Pass Interference (#7 J.Shelby Jr.) 15 yards from LTU40 to LTU25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
43.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete deep middle to #88 J.Askren thrown to LTU03Similar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
43.5%
Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete deep left to #9 R.Johnson thrown to LTU02Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
43.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete short middle thrown to LTU25 broken up by #6 J.FosterSimilar
Q2 6:36
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+42
39.0%
#36 Y.Obeid field goal attempt from 42 yards GOOD (H: #25 S.McDonald, LS: #47 A.Kallas), clock 06:36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 4:1160% → 64%
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
39.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush middle for 7 yards gain to the LTU32 (#91 T.Brantley; #7 D.Wesolak)Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
39.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush left for 2 yards gain to the LTU34 fumbled by #0 A.Burnette at LTU33 forced by #55 A.Poole recovered by LTU #55 L.Nelson at LTU34, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
39.7%
PENALTY MSU Offside (#55 A.Poole) 5 yards from LTU34 to LTU39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
38.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Thevenin rush left for 7 yards gain to the LTU46 (#6 J.Lloyd; #29 C.Ford)Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+4
38.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LTU50 (#6 J.Lloyd), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
50
0
38.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Thevenin rush left for 0 yards to the LTU50 (#19 J.Brooks)Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 10
50
0
38.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass incomplete short right thrown to MSU45 QB hurried by #6 J.LloydSimilar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 10
50
+1
36.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short left to #18 M.Jackson caught at LTU48, for 1 yard to the MSU49 (#14 T.Anderson), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 2:25
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
36.0%
#48 J.Chance punt 34 yards to the MSU15, out of bounds at MSU15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 7TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 1:1635% → 51%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
35.0%
Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete short left to #1 D.Luke thrown to MSU19 broken up by #8 J.FieldsSimilar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+1
34.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush right for 1 yard gain to the MSU16 (#90 J.Madkins)Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+10
33.9%
Shotgun #12 J.Clark rush right for 10 yards gain to the MSU26 (#22 J.Mayfield), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
35.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete short right to #15 T.Gardner thrown to MSU42 PENALTY LTU Pass Interference (#7 J.Shelby Jr.) 15 yards from MSU26 to MSU41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
36.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete short left to #2 S.Lawrence thrown to MSU37Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+27
35.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete deep middle to #15 T.Gardner caught at LTU32, for 27 yards to the LTU32 (#7 J.Shelby Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
38.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short right to #1 D.Luke caught at LTU25, for 9 yards to the LTU23 (#6 J.Foster), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+23
51.4%
J. Clark pass to J. Robinson for 23 yds, for a TD (Y. Obeid KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8END OF HALF
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:3654% → 56%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
46.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Thevenin rush left for 5 yards gain to the LTU20 (#91 T.Brantley; #44 K.Young)Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+2
45.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Thevenin rush right for 2 yards gain to the LTU22 (#12 J.Dunbar)Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+7
46.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush right for 7 yards gain to the LTU29 (#44 K.Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
44.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short middle to #4 C.Thevenin caught at LTU30, for 9 yards to the LTU38 (#9 D.Dixson; #44 K.Young)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 9DOWNS
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:4054% → 54%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
45.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 O.Wiggins rush right for 11 yards gain to the LTU44 (#0 M.Neal), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
44.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 O.Wiggins rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MSU49 (#29 C.Ford; #44 K.Young)Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+2
43.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU47 (#91 T.Brantley; #55 A.Poole)Similar
Q3 13:18
3RD & 1
OPP 47
0
43.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush middle for 0 yards to the MSU47 (#91 T.Brantley)Similar
Q3 12:08
4TH & 1
OPP 47
0
45.7%
Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass incomplete deep right to #18 M.Jackson thrown to MSU20, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 10DOWNS
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2051% → 45%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
50.5%
PENALTY MSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from MSU47 to MSU42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+6
47.9%
Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short left to #9 R.Johnson caught at MSU45, for 6 yards to the MSU48 (#6 J.Foster; #7 J.Shelby Jr.)Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
50.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete short right to #11 M.Cope thrown to LTU42 broken up by #9 M.MasonSimilar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 9
OWN 48
-10
47.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark sacked for loss of 10 yards to the MSU38 (#94 E.Oguns)Similar
Q3 10:48
4TH & 19
OWN 38
+11
44.9%
No Huddle #25 S.McDonald rush right for 11 yards gain to the MSU49 fumbled by #25 S.McDonald at LTU45 forced by #11 C.Woods, out of bounds at MSU49, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 11TD
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:3057% → 74%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+20
42.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 O.Wiggins rush left for 20 yards gain to the MSU29 (#0 M.Neal), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+22
41.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 22 yards gain to the MSU07 (#44 K.Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
41.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 O.Wiggins rush left for 2 yards loss to the MSU09 (#0 M.Neal)Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
41.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU05 (#44 K.Young; #30 C.Wiest)Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
42.7%
PENALTY LTU False Start (#55 L.Nelson) 5 yards from MSU05 to MSU10. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 10:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
43.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass incomplete short middle to #18 M.Jackson thrown to MSU00 PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (#12 J.Dunbar) 8 yards from MSU10 to MSU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
26.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:18 #38 K.Kent kick attempt good (H: #29 L.Matthews, LS: #41 E.Burch)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 12TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:5329% → 48%
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
29.1%
Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short middle to #11 M.Cope caught at MSU41, for 19 yards to the MSU44 (#8 J.Fields; #11 C.Woods), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
48.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 56 yards gain to the LTU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:25, 1ST DOWN #36 Y.Obeid kick attempt good (H: #25 S.McDonald, LS: #47 A.Kallas)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 13TD
19 plays · 78 yds · 8:0957% → 79%
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
43.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short right to #11 J.Mickens caught at LTU25, for 4 yards to the LTU26 (#12 J.Dunbar)Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+3
43.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush left for 16 yards gain (3) to the LTU42 (#44 K.Young) PENALTY LTU Holding (#55 L.Nelson) 10 yards from LTU29 to LTU19Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 13
OWN 19
0
44.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass incomplete short right to #11 J.Mickens thrown to LTU25 QB hurried by #6 J.LloydSimilar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 13
OWN 19
+17
45.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short right to #4 C.Thevenin caught at LTU19, for 17 yards to the LTU36 (#29 C.Ford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
40.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LTU40 (#44 K.Young)Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+16
39.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Thevenin rush middle for 16 yards gain to the MSU44 (#29 C.Ford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
38.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Thevenin rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU41 (#0 M.Neal; #17 D.Townley)Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+3
38.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU38 (#31 C.Roy; #17 D.Townley)Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+5
38.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short right to #11 J.Mickens caught at MSU35, for 5 yards to the MSU33 (#14 T.Anderson; #0 M.Neal), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
36.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush middle for 0 yards to the MSU33 (#44 K.Young; #6 J.Lloyd)Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
37.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass incomplete deep middle to #84 E.Finley thrown to MSU00 broken up by #0 M.NealSimilar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+22
38.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush right for 22 yards gain to the MSU11 (#12 J.Dunbar; #9 D.Dixson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
36.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Thevenin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU07 (#17 D.Townley)Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+2
36.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush right for 2 yards gain to the MSU05 (#91 T.Brantley)Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+3
31.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU02 (#6 J.Lloyd)Similar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+2
20.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush right for 2 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:12, 1ST DOWN #38 K.Kent kick attempt good (H: #29 L.Matthews, LS: #41 E.Burch)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
19.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush right for 1 yard gain to the MSU26 (#9 M.Mason)Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
19.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush left for 5 yards gain to the MSU31 (#42 S.Leota)Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
19.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete deep left to #15 T.Gardner thrown to LTU45Similar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-8
19.2%
#25 S.McDonald punt 41 yards to the LTU28 #11 C.Woods return for loss of 8 yards to the LTU20 (#18 D.Quist) PENALTY LTU Holding (#1 D.Gandy) 10 yards from LTU28 to LTU18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 4:3179% → 86%
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
21.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 O.Wiggins rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LTU21 (#35 A.Yelder)Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 7
OWN 21
-2
21.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush middle for 2 yards loss to the LTU19 (#30 C.Wiest; #35 A.Yelder)Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+7
22.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush left for 51 yards gain (7) to the MSU30 (#0 M.Neal) PENALTY LTU Personal Foul (#1 D.Gandy) 13 yards from LTU26 to LTU13Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 15
OWN 13
+2
22.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Thevenin rush middle for 2 yards gain to the LTU15 (#35 A.Yelder)Similar
Q4 9:41
4TH & 13
OWN 15
0
14.5%
#48 J.Chance punt 50 yards to the MSU35 PENALTY MSU Holding (#3 K.Anderson) 10 yards from MSU25 to MSU25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 16TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
34.4%
Jeron Askren 75 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 18TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3114% → 37%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
14.4%
Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete deep middle to #0 J.Robinson caught at LTU44, for 31 yards to the LTU44, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
16.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete short right to #11 M.Cope thrown to LTU25Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
16.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LTU40 (#9 M.Mason; #8 J.Fields)Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+15
16.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short middle to #1 D.Luke caught at LTU29, for 15 yards to the LTU25 (#8 J.Fields), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
18.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 R.Green Jr. rush right for 13 yards gain to the LTU12 (#6 J.Foster), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
37.1%
R. Green Jr. run for 12 yds, for a TD (Y. Obeid KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19TD
6 plays · 82 yds · 2:5576% → 95%
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
23.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Thevenin rush left for 4 yards gain to the LTU22 (#29 C.Ford)Similar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+2
23.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 2 yards gain to the LTU24 (#7 D.Wesolak)Similar
Q4 6:39
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+17
24.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short middle to #84 E.Finley caught at LTU41, for 17 yards to the LTU41 (#29 C.Ford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
20.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LTU42 (#91 T.Brantley; #6 J.Lloyd)Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+58
5.5%
T. Kukuk run for 58 yds, for a TD (K. Kent KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 20INT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:436% → 7%
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.8%
Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete deep left to #85 D.Hipp thrown to LTU50Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
5.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete short left to #5 J.BlackStrain thrown to MSU35, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY LTU Pass Interference (#11 C.Woods) 13 yards from MSU25 to MSU38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
6.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short left to #5 J.BlackStrain caught at MSU43, for 5 yards to the MSU43 (#11 C.Woods)Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
6.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass intercepted by #6 J.Foster at LTU36, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21END OF GAME
11 plays · 7 yds · 1:0196% → 97%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
4.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 0 yards to the LTU36 (#6 J.Lloyd)Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
4.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush middle for 2 yards gain to the LTU38 (#6 J.Lloyd; #91 T.Brantley)Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+5
4.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass incomplete short right to #1 D.Gandy thrown to MSU43 PENALTY MSU Offside (#31 C.Roy) 5 yards from LTU38 to LTU43. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+4
3.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush left for 4 yards gain to the LTU47 (#90 S.Smithson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
2.9%
Kneel down by #2 T.Kukuk at LTU45 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 12
OWN 45
-1
2.6%
Kneel down by #2 T.Kukuk at LTU44 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 13
OWN 44
-1
2.7%
Kneel down by #2 T.Kukuk at LTU43 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:30
Jeron Askren 75 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+19.9
TD · Q4 9:15
Y. Obeid kickoff for 58 yds, D. Gandy returns for 93 yds for a TD (K. Kent KICK)
-19.5
TD · Q3 7:25
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 56 yards gain to the LTU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:25, 1ST DOWN #36 Y.Obeid kick attempt good (H: #25 S.McDonald, LS: #47 A.Kallas)
+19.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com