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LIB

Liberty 28 at Louisiana Tech 34

LT
2025 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025 · Joe Aillet Stadium
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Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreLIB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:46 · (11:45) #48 J.Chance punt 47 yards to the LUF27 fair catch by #15 B.Green at LUF27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingBlowout margin
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 99Home team on offense−13.2Score differential−4.7Garbage-time factor−4.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.8Blowout margin−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:39: (07:45) Shotgun #15 E.Vasko pass complete short left to #84 J.Jenkins caught at LAT00, for 6 yards to the LAT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:39, 1ST DOWN #15 E.Vasko rush attempt Successful — LIB win probability +13.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:14: (04:34) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 31 yards gain to the LUF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:14, 1ST DOWN #38 K.Kent kick attempt good (H: #29 L.Matthews, LS: #41 E.Burch) — LT win probability +11.8 pts (now 20%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:24: (10:24) Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LUF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:24 #38 K.Kent kick attempt good (H: #29 L.Matthews, LS: #41 E.Burch) — LT win probability +27.2 pts (now 34%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:05: (07:11) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 29 yards gain to the LUF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:05, 1ST DOWN #38 K.Kent kick attempt good (H: #29 L.Matthews, LS: #41 E.Burch) — LT win probability +29.4 pts (now 64%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: (00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush middle for 25 yards gain to the LUF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:00, 1ST DOWN — LT win probability +45.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 4 of 7LIB made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 6:28LIB 4th & 1 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    47.1%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:22LIB 4th & 8 at LT 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    42.6%−2.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:05LT 4th & 8 at LIB 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:12LIB 4th & 5 at LT 5, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    42.8%−3.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:12LT 4th & 2 at LT 43, down 6
    Close callPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:39LIB 4th & 20 at midfield, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−1.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:44LT 4th & 10 at LT 28, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:49LIB 4th & 13 at LIB 45, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−1.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:46LT 4th & 9 at LT 26, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:14LT 4th & 3 at LIB 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    6.9%−1.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−2.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:10LT 4th & 5 at LIB 28, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    13.8%
    60% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−5.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:52LT 4th & 1 at LT 30, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 8.0 ptsPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.6%−8.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:09LIB 4th & 16 at LIB 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−14.0
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4LIB made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 8:23LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:00LIB Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:10LIB Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:39LIB Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    86.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:14LT Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:24LT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:05LT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.0%−1.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LTDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:2148% → 53%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
48.3%
(15:00) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush right for 12 yards gain to the LAT37 (#6 C.Bodnar), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
48.5%
(14:35) Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush middle for 6 yards gain to the LAT43 (#11 D.Farrar; #99 B.Dixon)Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+4
48.7%
(14:04) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LAT47 (#99 B.Dixon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
48.8%
(13:32) Shotgun #4 C.Thevenin rush right for 1 yard loss to the LAT46 (#13 D.Harmon; #29 A.Jones), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+6
48.9%
(13:05) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short middle to #84 E.Finley caught at LUF50, for 6 yards to the LUF48 (#33 A.Vaughan; #13 D.Harmon)Similar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+7
49.2%
(12:25) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short right to #4 C.Thevenin caught at LAT46, for 7 yards to the LUF41 (#57 A.Hester; #29 A.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
49.5%
(11:47) Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LUF37 (#30 E.Crisp; #14 E.Auguste)Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+3
49.6%
(11:17) Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LUF34 (#1 C.Bazile, Jr.; #97 M.Jarvis)Similar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+5
49.7%
(10:43) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 5 yards gain to the LUF29 (#14 E.Auguste; #94 N.Pirolli), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
50.2%
(10:01) Shotgun #18 M.Jackson rush right for 14 yards gain to the LUF15 (#4 M.Pollard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
50.4%
(09:27) Shotgun #4 C.Thevenin rush middle for 5 yards gain to the LUF10 (#94 N.Pirolli; #4 M.Pollard)Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+2
50.4%
(09:08) Shotgun #4 C.Thevenin rush middle for 2 yards gain to the LUF08 (#55 D.Dozier; #94 N.Pirolli)Similar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+8
52.7%
(08:33) Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush right for 8 yards gain to the LUF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:23, 1ST DOWN #43 D.Henderson kick attempt good (H: #48 J.Chance, LS: #41 E.Burch)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 2FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 5:4348% → 48%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
52.3%
(08:23) Shotgun #15 E.Vasko pass complete short middle to #48 C.Ryan caught at LUF37, for 16 yards to the LUF41 (#8 J.Fields), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
52.1%
(07:57) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LUF42 (#90 J.Madkins; #1 M.Richard)Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
52.3%
(07:36) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush right for 0 yards to the LUF42 (#22 J.Mayfield; #7 J.Shelby Jr.)Similar
Q1 6:39
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+8
52.9%
(06:43) Shotgun #15 E.Vasko pass complete short right to #3 J.Person caught at LUF50, for 8 yards to the LUF50 (#7 J.Shelby Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 6:28
4TH & 1
50
+3
52.7%
(06:35) Shotgun #15 E.Vasko rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LAT47 (#8 J.Fields; #6 J.Foster), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
52.5%
(05:59) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 12 yards gain to the LAT35 (#8 J.Fields), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
52.3%
(05:37) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LAT34 (#0 S.Fongang; #9 M.Mason)Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+17
52.6%
(05:05) Shotgun #15 E.Vasko pass complete short left to #9 D.Lee Jr. caught at LAT17, for 17 yards to the LAT17 (#22 J.Mayfield; #11 C.Woods), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
52.5%
(04:28) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 1 yard loss to the LAT18 (#8 J.Fields; #94 E.Oguns)Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+7
53.0%
(03:39) Shotgun #15 E.Vasko pass complete short right to #0 J.Coleman caught at LAT15, for 7 yards to the LAT11 (#21 Z.Hill; #7 J.Shelby Jr.)Similar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 4
OPP 11
-4
53.7%
(02:58) Shotgun #0 J.Coleman rush left for 4 yards loss to the LAT15 (#22 J.Mayfield; #17 A.Butler)Similar
Q1 2:22
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+33
51.8%
(02:22) #43 J.Billingsley field goal attempt from 33 yards GOOD (H: #37 M.Morgan, LS: #47 R.Manis), clock 02:22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:0352% → 53%
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
52.3%
(02:22) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short middle to #84 E.Finley caught at LAT26, for 8 yards to the LAT33 (#33 A.Vaughan)Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
53.1%
(01:51) Shotgun #22 O.Wiggins rush left for 2 yards gain to the LAT35 (#97 M.Jarvis; #13 D.Harmon), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY LUF Face Mask (#97 M.Jarvis) 15 yards from LAT35 to LAT50, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
50
+2
53.8%
(01:22) Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush right for 2 yards gain to the LUF48 (#8 B.Williams)Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
54.0%
(00:55) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass incomplete deep right to #1 D.Gandy thrown to LUF25Similar
Q1 0:43
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
53.5%
(00:52) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 0 yards to the LUF48 (#8 B.Williams; #57 A.Hester)Similar
Q1 0:05
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
52.5%
(00:19) #48 J.Chance punt 33 yards to the LUF15, out of bounds at LUF15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 4FG
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:5347% → 48%
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
53.1%
(00:05) Shotgun #15 E.Vasko rush middle for 8 yards gain to the LUF23 (#42 S.Leota; #91 C.Sims)Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+36
52.7%
(15:00) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush right for 36 yards gain to the LAT41 (#6 J.Foster), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
51.5%
(14:35) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 5 yards gain to the LAT36 (#8 J.Fields; #98 D.Rieman)Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+15
51.4%
(13:55) Shotgun #15 E.Vasko pass incomplete deep left to #8 T.Mobley thrown to LAT00 PENALTY LAT Pass Interference (#7 J.Shelby Jr.) 15 yards from LAT36 to LAT21, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
50.9%
(13:51) Shotgun #24 V.Blue rush left for 9 yards gain to the LAT12 (#97 C.Davis)Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+8
51.0%
(13:17) Shotgun #24 V.Blue rush middle for 8 yards gain to the LAT04 (#22 J.Mayfield), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
51.1%
(12:39) Shotgun #15 E.Vasko rush middle for 1 yard loss to the LAT05 (#4 K.Franklin; #9 M.Mason)Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
51.1%
(12:22) Shotgun #15 E.Vasko pass incomplete short middle to #8 T.Mobley thrown to LAT00Similar
Q2 11:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
51.9%
(12:01) Shotgun #15 E.Vasko rush middle for 0 yards to the LAT05 (#97 C.Davis)Similar
Q2 11:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
52.2%
(11:19) #43 J.Billingsley field goal attempt from 23 yards GOOD (H: #37 M.Morgan, LS: #47 R.Manis), clock 11:12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 5INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:4953% → 54%
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
53.3%
(11:08) Shotgun #4 C.Thevenin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LAT20 (#35 D.Glaud)Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 6
OWN 20
-26
53.5%
(10:46) Shotgun #0 A.Burnette pass intercepted by #13 D.Harmon at LUF49 #13 D.Harmon return 26 yards to the LAT25 (#60 R.Brackins III; #6 T.Averhart)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 6TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:5250% → 59%
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+21
50.2%
(10:11) Shotgun #15 E.Vasko pass complete deep middle to #0 J.Coleman caught at LAT04, for 21 yards to the LAT04, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
50.2%
(09:32) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 2 yards gain to the LAT02 (#6 J.Foster; #90 J.Madkins)Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
41.2%
(08:59) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 2 yards gain to the LAT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:00 #43 J.Billingsley kick attempt good (H: #37 M.Morgan, LS: #45 C.Comer) #43 J.Billingsley kick attempt good (H: #37 M.Morgan, LS: #47 R.Manis)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:3945% → 44%
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
45.2%
(09:00) Shotgun #22 O.Wiggins rush middle for 5 yards gain to the LAT40 (#97 M.Jarvis; #56 S.Cohen)Similar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+5
46.6%
(08:44) PENALTY LAT False Start (#18 M.Jackson) 5 yards from LAT40 to LAT35. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
45.0%
(08:34) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 6 yards gain to the LAT41 (#11 D.Farrar; #7 D.Henderson)Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+2
44.9%
(07:55) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 2 yards gain to the LAT43 (#35 D.Glaud; #56 S.Cohen)Similar
Q2 7:12
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
44.0%
(07:12) #48 J.Chance punt 42 yards to the LUF15 fair catch by #15 B.Green at LUF15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 45 yds · 2:2658% → 59%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
42.0%
(07:08) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush right for 1 yard gain to the LUF16 (#8 J.Fields)Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+25
42.1%
(06:34) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush right for 25 yards gain to the LUF41 (#21 Z.Hill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
39.6%
(05:58) Shotgun #15 E.Vasko rush right for 19 yards gain to the LAT40 (#7 J.Shelby Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
39.0%
(05:27) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush left for 0 yards to the LAT40 (#8 J.Fields)Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
38.9%
(05:00) Shotgun #15 E.Vasko pass incomplete short middle to #3 J.Person thrown to LAT27Similar
Q2 4:47
3RD & 10
OPP 40
-10
39.2%
(04:51) Shotgun #15 E.Vasko pass incomplete short left to #9 D.Lee Jr. thrown to LAT30 QB hurried by #22 J.Mayfield PENALTY LUF Intentional Grounding (#15 E.Vasko)Similar
Q2 4:39
4TH & 20
50
0
41.5%
(04:47) #37 M.Morgan punt 40 yards to the LAT10 fair catch by #3 D.Latulas at LAT10 PENALTY LUF Kick Catch Interference (#0 J.Coleman) 15 yards from LAT13 to LAT28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:4442% → 39%
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
41.9%
(04:39) Shotgun #18 M.Jackson rush left for 2 yards gain to the LAT30 (#6 C.Bodnar; #55 D.Dozier)Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
41.6%
(04:06) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass incomplete short middle to #84 E.Finley thrown to LAT35 broken up by #94 N.PirolliSimilar
Q2 4:01
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+10
40.4%
(04:01) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 12 yards gain to the LAT42 (#4 M.Pollard) PENALTY LAT Holding (#4 C.Thevenin) 10 yards from LAT30 to LAT20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:29
3RD & 18
OWN 20
+8
39.9%
(03:36) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 8 yards gain to the LAT28 (#1 C.Bazile, Jr.; #4 M.Pollard)Similar
Q2 2:44
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
39.0%
(02:57) #48 J.Chance punt 72 yards to the LUF00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 1:4860% → 60%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
39.6%
(02:42) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush left for 17 yards gain to the LUF37 (#1 M.Richard), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
37.7%
(02:23) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 2 yards gain to the LUF39 (#8 J.Fields; #97 C.Davis)Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+9
37.0%
(02:00) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush right for 9 yards gain to the LUF48 (#6 J.Foster; #22 J.Mayfield), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
36.5%
(01:41) Shotgun #15 E.Vasko pass incomplete short middle to #6 R.Smith thrown to LUF50 broken up by #42 S.LeotaSimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-3
36.6%
(01:40) Shotgun #15 E.Vasko rush middle for 3 yards loss to the LUF45 (#22 J.Mayfield; #21 Z.Hill)Similar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 13
OWN 45
0
39.2%
(01:13) Shotgun #15 E.Vasko pass incomplete short middle to #8 T.Mobley thrown to LUF45Similar
Q2 0:49
4TH & 13
OWN 45
0
40.3%
(00:54) #37 M.Morgan punt 38 yards to the LAT17 fair catch by #3 D.Latulas at LAT17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 11MISSED FG
9 plays · 53 yds · 0:3340% → 44%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
40.4%
(00:49) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short right to #11 J.Mickens caught at LAT15, for 3 yards to the LAT20 (#6 C.Bodnar; #11 D.Farrar)Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+21
40.1%
(00:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short middle to #84 E.Finley caught at LAT35, for 21 yards to the LAT41 (#6 C.Bodnar; #15 B.Green), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
41.6%
(00:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush left for 9 yards gain to the LAT50, out of bounds at LAT50Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 1
50
+20
42.9%
(00:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short right to #1 D.Gandy caught at LUF32, for 20 yards to the LUF30 (#13 D.Harmon), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY LUF Offside declinedSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
44.7%
(00:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush right for 0 yards to the LUF30 (#4 M.Pollard)Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+47
44.0%
#43 D.Henderson field goal attempt from 47 yards NO GOOD (H: #48 J.Chance, LS: #41 E.Burch), clock 00:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 12TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4461% → 75%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
39.1%
(15:00) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LUF26 (#94 E.Oguns; #22 J.Mayfield)Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+56
38.9%
(14:27) Shotgun #15 E.Vasko pass complete deep middle to #48 C.Ryan caught at LAT45, for 56 yards to the LAT18 (#1 M.Richard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
35.8%
(13:54) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LAT17 (#9 M.Mason; #42 S.Leota)Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
35.6%
(13:26) Shotgun #15 E.Vasko pass incomplete short right to #2 C.Cain thrown to LAT10 QB hurried by #42 S.LeotaSimilar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+9
36.5%
(13:20) Shotgun #15 E.Vasko pass incomplete short right to #9 D.Lee Jr. thrown to LAT00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY LAT Pass Interference (#7 J.Shelby Jr.) 15 yards from LAT17 to LAT02, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
24.9%
(13:10) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 2 yards gain to the LAT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:10 #43 J.Billingsley kick attempt good (H: #37 M.Morgan, LS: #45 C.Comer) #43 J.Billingsley kick attempt good (H: #37 M.Morgan, LS: #47 R.Manis)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0730% → 28%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
30.1%
(13:10) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short right to #4 C.Thevenin caught at LAT22, for 1 yard loss to the LAT24 (#11 D.Farrar; #29 A.Jones)Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
29.4%
(12:41) Shotgun #4 C.Thevenin rush left for 2 yards gain to the LAT26 (#11 D.Farrar)Similar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
28.3%
(12:16) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass incomplete short right to #18 M.Jackson thrown to LAT37 broken up by #29 A.Jones QB hurried by #8 B.WilliamsSimilar
Q3 11:46
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
28.2%
(11:45) #48 J.Chance punt 47 yards to the LUF27 fair catch by #15 B.Green at LUF27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 14TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 3:5775% → 93%
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+31
25.4%
(11:46) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush left for 31 yards gain to the LAT42 (#1 M.Richard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
21.9%
(11:12) Shotgun #15 E.Vasko rush left for 12 yards gain to the LAT30 (#8 J.Fields), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
22.2%
(10:30) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 2 yards loss to the LAT32 (#9 M.Mason)Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+10
21.6%
(10:02) Shotgun #15 E.Vasko pass complete short right to #0 J.Coleman caught at LAT36, for 10 yards to the LAT22 (#8 J.Fields)Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 2
OPP 22
0
21.4%
(09:21) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 0 yards to the LAT22 (#9 M.Mason; #8 J.Fields) PENALTY LAT Illegal Use Of Hands 10 yards from LAT22 to LAT12, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
20.6%
(08:50) Shotgun #24 V.Blue rush left for 8 yards gain to the LAT04 (#8 J.Fields), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 2
OPP 4
-2
20.3%
(08:22) Shotgun #24 V.Blue rush middle for 2 yards loss to the LAT06 (#9 M.Mason)Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+6
7.3%
(07:45) Shotgun #15 E.Vasko pass complete short left to #84 J.Jenkins caught at LAT00, for 6 yards to the LAT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:39, 1ST DOWN #15 E.Vasko rush attempt SuccessfulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1611% → 20%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
10.7%
(07:36) Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush left for 12 yards gain to the LAT37, out of bounds at LAT37, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
11.0%
(07:18) Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LAT40 (#44 J.Strickland; #94 N.Pirolli)Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+7
11.1%
(06:44) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short right to #22 O.Wiggins caught at LAT35, for 7 yards to the LAT47 (#11 D.Farrar), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
8.7%
PENALTY LUF UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#26 A.Williams) 15 yards from LAT47 to LUF38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
8.9%
(06:09) Shotgun #22 O.Wiggins rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LUF35 (#3 E.Griffin; #44 J.Strickland)Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+1
9.6%
(05:47) Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LUF34 (#3 E.Griffin)Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+3
8.2%
(05:20) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short middle to #4 C.Thevenin caught at LUF32, for 3 yards to the LUF31 (#4 M.Pollard)Similar
Q3 4:14
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+31
20.0%
(04:34) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 31 yards gain to the LUF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:14, 1ST DOWN #38 K.Kent kick attempt good (H: #29 L.Matthews, LS: #41 E.Burch)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16INT
3 plays · 27 yds · 0:2584% → 86%
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
16.1%
(04:10) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush right for 27 yards gain to the LAT48 (#6 J.Foster), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
14.5%
(03:49) Shotgun #15 E.Vasko pass intercepted by #6 J.Foster at LAT04, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17TD
21 plays · 96 yds · 8:1018% → 34%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
17.6%
(03:41) Shotgun #4 C.Thevenin rush middle for 5 yards gain to the LAT09 (#91 M.Clark)Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 5
OWN 9
+7
16.8%
(03:20) Shotgun #4 C.Thevenin rush middle for 7 yards gain to the LAT16 (#11 D.Farrar; #8 B.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
17.3%
(02:59) Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush middle for 6 yards gain to the LAT22 (#4 M.Pollard)Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+3
16.7%
(02:15) Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LAT25 (#11 D.Farrar; #30 E.Crisp)Similar
Q3 1:33
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+4
16.3%
(01:51) Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush left for 4 yards gain to the LAT29 (#4 M.Pollard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
16.1%
(01:05) Shotgun #4 C.Thevenin rush right for 12 yards gain to the LAT41, out of bounds at LAT41, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
17.5%
(00:33) Shotgun #4 C.Thevenin rush left for 4 yards gain to the LAT45 (#94 N.Pirolli)Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
17.2%
(15:00) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass incomplete deep left to #8 J.Fields thrown to LUF20 broken up by #13 D.HarmonSimilar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+12
16.9%
(14:54) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 12 yards gain to the LUF43 (#15 B.Green), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY LUF Illegal Use Of Hands (#29 A.Jones) 10 yards from LUF43 to LUF33, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
16.9%
(12:32) Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LUF30 (#11 D.Farrar; #4 M.Pollard)Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
17.1%
(12:07) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass incomplete deep right to #6 T.Averhart thrown to LUF00 broken up by #15 B.GreenSimilar
Q4 11:33
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+2
15.9%
(11:38) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 2 yards gain to the LUF28 (#97 M.Jarvis)Similar
Q4 11:10
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+9
15.1%
(11:21) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short left to #84 E.Finley caught at LUF20, for 9 yards to the LUF19, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
16.6%
(11:04) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush left for 4 yards gain to the LUF15 (#29 A.Jones; #8 B.Williams)Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+2
14.3%
(10:28) Shotgun #22 O.Wiggins rush middle for 2 yards gain to the LUF13 (#11 D.Farrar; #94 N.Pirolli)Similar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+4
13.3%
Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LUF09 (#94 N.Pirolli; #26 A.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
14.3%
Shotgun #22 O.Wiggins rush right for 2 yards gain to the LUF07 (#55 D.Dozier; #4 M.Pollard)Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
14.3%
Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LUF03 (#97 M.Jarvis; #4 M.Pollard)Similar
Q4 10:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
33.8%
(10:24) Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LUF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:24 #38 K.Kent kick attempt good (H: #29 L.Matthews, LS: #41 E.Burch)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 18INT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:1477% → 77%
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
23.0%
(10:24) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush left for 5 yards gain to the LUF30 (#1 M.Richard) PENALTY LUF Illegal Block in Back 10 yards from LUF25 to LUF15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
23.7%
(09:59) Shotgun #15 E.Vasko pass incomplete short middle to #6 R.Smith thrown to LUF27 broken up by #1 M.RichardSimilar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+8
22.9%
(09:55) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 8 yards gain to the LUF23 (#6 J.Foster; #96 Z.Nason)Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
23.0%
(09:10) Shotgun #15 E.Vasko pass intercepted by #1 M.Richard at LUF45, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 1:5734% → 64%
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
33.7%
(09:10) Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LUF42 (#97 M.Jarvis; #57 A.Hester)Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+10
32.6%
(08:29) Shotgun #25 A.Givens rush middle for 10 yards gain to the LUF32 (#14 E.Auguste), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
34.9%
(08:01) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LUF29 (#94 N.Pirolli; #57 A.Hester)Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 7
OPP 29
0
34.3%
(07:11) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass incomplete short left to #11 J.Mickens thrown to LUF20 QB hurried by #57 A.HesterSimilar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+29
63.7%
(07:11) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 29 yards gain to the LUF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:05, 1ST DOWN #38 K.Kent kick attempt good (H: #29 L.Matthews, LS: #41 E.Burch)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 20INT
4 plays · 28 yds · 1:0648% → 55%
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
51.6%
(07:04) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush right for 26 yards gain to the LAT49 (#11 C.Woods; #97 C.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
45.5%
(06:26) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush right for 2 yards gain to the LAT47 (#9 M.Mason; #6 J.Foster)Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
45.5%
(05:54) Shotgun #15 E.Vasko pass intercepted by #8 J.Fields at LAT21, End Of Play PENALTY LUF Pass Interference declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4759% → 56%
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
58.5%
(05:44) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LAT24 (#55 D.Dozier; #8 B.Williams)Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+3
59.4%
(05:09) Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LAT27 (#4 M.Pollard; #30 E.Crisp)Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+3
57.7%
(04:43) Shotgun #4 C.Thevenin rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LAT30 (#4 M.Pollard; #8 B.Williams)Similar
Q4 3:52
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
56.4%
(03:56) #48 J.Chance punt 54 yards to the LUF16 fair catch by #15 B.Green at LUF16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 2:3648% → 45%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
51.6%
(03:52) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LUF19 (#90 J.Madkins; #8 J.Fields)Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+10
51.6%
(03:13) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush left for 10 yards gain to the LUF29 (#1 M.Richard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
50.8%
(02:40) Shotgun #0 J.Coleman rush left for 8 yards gain to the LUF37 (#6 J.Foster)Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+5
47.5%
(02:15) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 5 yards gain to the LUF42 (#4 K.Franklin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
46.7%
(02:00) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush right for 1 yard loss to the LUF41 (#9 M.Mason)Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 11
OWN 41
0
48.3%
(01:31) Shotgun #15 E.Vasko pass incomplete short left thrown to LUF50Similar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 11
OWN 41
+5
50.1%
PENALTY LUF Illegal Substitution 5 yards from LUF41 to LUF36. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 16
OWN 36
0
53.0%
(01:20) Shotgun #15 E.Vasko pass incomplete short middle to #9 D.Lee Jr. thrown to LUF36 broken up by #11 C.WoodsSimilar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 16
OWN 36
0
54.7%
(01:12) #37 M.Morgan punt 45 yards to the LAT19 fair catch by #3 D.Latulas at LAT19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 23MISSED FG
11 plays · 40 yds · 0:5259% → 64%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
59.0%
(01:08) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short right to #11 J.Mickens caught at LAT20, for 5 yards to the LAT24 (#26 A.Williams; #94 N.Pirolli)Similar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+16
60.0%
(00:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short left to #4 C.Thevenin caught at LAT25, for 16 yards to the LAT40 fumbled by #4 C.Thevenin at LAT40 forced by #4 M.Pollard recovered by LAT #4 C.Thevenin at LAT40, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
60.8%
(00:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass incomplete short right to #4 C.Thevenin thrown to LAT37Similar
Q4 0:09
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
59.1%
(00:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 5 yards gain to the LAT45 (#94 N.Pirolli)Similar
Q4 0:06
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+14
60.3%
(00:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk pass complete short middle to #84 E.Finley caught at LUF45, for 14 yards to the LUF41 (#6 C.Bodnar), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
63.8%
(00:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LUF37 (#4 M.Pollard)Similar
Q4 0:03
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+54
63.7%
John Hoyet Chance 54 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 24INT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
41.1%
(00:00) Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush left for 3 yards gain to the LAT22 (#8 J.Fields; #7 J.Shelby Jr.)Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
41.1%
(00:00) Shotgun #15 E.Vasko pass intercepted by #6 J.Foster at LAT00, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 25TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
86.1%
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush middle for 25 yards gain to the LUF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:00, 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush middle for 25 yards gain to the LUF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:00, 1ST DOWN
+45
TD · Q4 7:05
(07:11) Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 29 yards gain to the LUF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:05, 1ST DOWN #38 K.Kent kick attempt good (H: #29 L.Matthews, LS: #41 E.Burch)
+29.4
TD · Q4 10:24
(10:24) Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LUF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:24 #38 K.Kent kick attempt good (H: #29 L.Matthews, LS: #41 E.Burch)
+27.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com