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UTEP

UTEP 24 at Missouri State 38

MOST
2025 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025 · Plaster Sports Complex
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Win probability · MOST
modelMOST aheadUTEP aheadconfidence bandkey playMOST scoreUTEP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:16 · #42 N.Botsford punt 51 yards to the MSU00, Touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 13Home team on offense−0.2Pregame prior+11.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:29: #12 J.Clark pass complete short middle to #88 J.Askren caught at UTEP00, for 9 yards to the UTEP00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:29, 1ST DOWN #36 Y.Obeid kick attempt good (H: #25 S.McDonald, LS: #47 A.Kallas) — MOST win probability +12.7 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MOST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:43: Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short right to #88 J.Askren caught at UTEP02, for 2 yards to the UTEP00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:43, 1ST DOWN #36 Y.Obeid kick attempt good (H: #25 S.McDonald, LS: #47 A.Kallas) — MOST win probability +9.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MOST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:06: No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:06 #91 C.Arreola kick attempt good (H: #11 C.McConnell, LS: #39 J.Hancock) — UTEP win probability +13.4 pts (now 32%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:15: Ekow Taylor 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Carlos Arreola Kick) — UTEP win probability +20.4 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  5. TD · Q4 11:09: No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short right to #15 T.Gardner caught at UTEP10, for 12 yards to the UTEP00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:09, 1ST DOWN #36 Y.Obeid kick attempt good (H: #25 S.McDonald, LS: #47 A.Kallas) — MOST win probability +21.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MOST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MOST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UTEP made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 11:16UTEP 4th & 6 at UTEP 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:43MOST 4th & 1 at UTEP 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    67.8%−0.3
    88% to make
    Punt
    66.8%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:11UTEP 4th & 14 at UTEP 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:15MOST 4th & 5 at UTEP 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    68.6%−2.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:50UTEP 4th & 15 at MOST 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.4%
    56% to make
    Punt
    25.7%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:49MOST 4th & 2 at midfield, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    72.4%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:29MOST 4th & 1 at UTEP 9, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    73.1%−1.9
    89% to make
    Punt
    68.4%−6.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:00MOST 4th & 5 at MOST 30, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:00UTEP 4th & 3 at MOST 29, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    11.9%−1.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    6.5%−6.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:52UTEP 4th & 8 at MOST 8, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−7.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:56MOST 4th & 13 at MOST 22, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%−3.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:15MOST 4th & 27 at MOST 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%−5.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:14UTEP 4th & 4 at UTEP 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:26UTEP 4th & 10 at UTEP 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.7%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MOST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UTEP made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:43MOST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:29MOST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:56UTEP Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:43MOST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:06UTEP Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:15UTEP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:09MOST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−0.7
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:12MOST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTEPDrive 1PUNT
13 plays · 31 yds · 3:4438% → 38%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
62.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UTEP19 (#43 C.Dietlin)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 19
0
62.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete deep right to #6 K.Odom thrown to MSU35 PENALTY UTEP Holding offsetting MSU Pass Interference offsetting. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+6
62.0%
Shotgun #1 A.Emory rush right for 6 yards gain to the UTEP25 (#29 C.Ford)Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+9
62.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short middle to #86 J.Andrus caught at UTEP30, for 9 yards to the UTEP34 (#29 C.Ford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
62.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete deep right to #6 K.Odom thrown to MSU40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
62.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete short left to #17 J.Brown thrown to UTEP40 QB hurried by #7 D.WesolakSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+11
62.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear rush left for 11 yards gain to the UTEP45 (#27 D.Rutherford), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
62.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UTEP47 (#99 R.Williams; #44 K.Young)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+7
62.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short left to #17 J.Brown caught at MSU47, for 7 yards to the MSU46 (#14 T.Anderson)Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+5
62.0%
PENALTY UTEP False Start (#99 C.Gustafson) 5 yards from MSU46 to UTEP49. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
62.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete short right to #6 K.Odom thrown to MSU47 QB hurried by #31 C.RoySimilar
Q1 11:16
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
61.8%
#42 N.Botsford punt 51 yards to the MSU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 2TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:3362% → 65%
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
61.9%
Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short right to #0 J.Robinson caught at MSU32, for 12 yards to the MSU32 (#12 D.Thompson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
62.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short right to #9 R.Johnson caught at MSU47, for 15 yards to the MSU47, out of bounds at MSU47, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
62.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush right for 13 yards gain to the UTEP40 (#18 J.Content), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+21
62.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short left to #11 M.Cope caught at UTEP28, for 21 yards to the UTEP19 (#12 D.Thompson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
62.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete short right to #9 R.Johnson thrown to UTEP00 QB hurried by #10 J.WilsonSimilar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
62.5%
PENALTY MSU False Start (#74 E.Cade) 5 yards from UTEP19 to UTEP24. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 15
OPP 24
0
62.3%
Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete short left to #1 D.Luke thrown to UTEP05 QB hurried by #48 M.DaveySimilar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 15
OPP 24
+14
62.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short right to #15 T.Gardner caught at UTEP10, for 14 yards to the UTEP10 (#12 D.Thompson)Similar
Q1 7:43
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+10
64.6%
#2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 10 yards gain to the UTEP00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:43, 1ST DOWN #36 Y.Obeid kick attempt good (H: #25 S.McDonald, LS: #47 A.Kallas)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:3236% → 35%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
64.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Emory rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UTEP20 (#17 D.Townley)Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+10
64.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete deep middle to #6 K.Odom caught at MSU40, for 45 yards to the MSU35 (#29 C.Ford) PENALTY UTEP Holding (#60 J.Immediato) 10 yards from UTEP20 to UTEP10. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 19
OWN 10
+5
64.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short left to #17 J.Brown caught at UTEP15, for 5 yards to the UTEP15 (#14 T.Anderson)Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 14
OWN 15
0
64.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete deep left to #6 K.Odom thrown to MSU33 broken up by #12 J.DunbarSimilar
Q1 6:11
4TH & 14
OWN 15
+7
65.4%
#42 N.Botsford punt 43 yards to the MSU42 #1 D.Luke return 7 yards to the MSU49, out of bounds at MSU49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 4FG
10 plays · 39 yds · 3:5666% → 68%
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
65.7%
Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush left for 21 yards gain (14) to the UTEP30 (#22 L.Russell) PENALTY MSU Holding (#0 J.Robinson) 10 yards from UTEP37 to UTEP47Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+10
65.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short right to #5 J.BlackStrain caught at UTEP42, for 10 yards to the UTEP38 (#18 J.Content), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
65.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete short left to #2 S.Lawrence thrown to UTEP35Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
65.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush left for 2 yards gain to the UTEP36 (#19 A.Hall)Similar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+19
65.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short right to #11 M.Cope caught at UTEP21, for 19 yards to the UTEP17 (#13 T.Tillman), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UTEP Holding declinedSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
65.8%
Shotgun #22 R.Green Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UTEP13 (#22 L.Russell)Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 6
OPP 13
-4
65.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short right to #5 J.BlackStrain caught at UTEP17, for 4 yards loss to the UTEP17 (#18 J.Content)Similar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+5
65.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short left to #0 J.Robinson caught at UTEP16, for 5 yards to the UTEP12 (#2 X.Smith; #22 L.Russell)Similar
Q1 2:15
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+29
66.7%
#36 Y.Obeid field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #25 S.McDonald, LS: #47 A.Kallas), clock 02:15Similar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 6
OPP 47
-1
67.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark sacked for loss of 1 yard to the UTEP48 (#6 E.Taylor), fumble by #12 J.Clark recovered by MSU #5 J.BlackStrain at UTEP48, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 5MISSED FG
15 plays · 48 yds · 4:2533% → 31%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
66.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 E.McCoy rush middle for 0 yards to the UTEP22 (#90 S.Smithson; #44 K.Young)Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
66.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete deep middle to #6 K.Odom thrown to MSU35Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+18
67.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short left to #89 J.Schuchts caught at UTEP40, for 18 yards to the UTEP40 (#0 M.Neal), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
66.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear rush left for 12 yards gain to the MSU48 (#19 J.Brooks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
65.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Taylor rush left for 4 yards loss to the UTEP48 (#9 D.Dixson)Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 14
OWN 48
+9
66.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short right to #19 E.Willis III caught at MSU43, for 9 yards to the MSU43 (#0 M.Neal), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+7
66.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short left to #19 E.Willis III caught at MSU37, for 7 yards to the MSU36 (#9 D.Dixson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
66.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short right to #89 J.Schuchts caught at MSU30, for 11 yards to the MSU25 (#17 D.Townley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
65.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete short right thrown to MSU15 QB hurried by #99 R.WilliamsSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
65.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short right to #6 K.Odom caught at MSU26, for 1 yard loss to the MSU26 lateral to #21 M.Taylor for 1 yard gain to the MSU26 (#9 D.Dixson)Similar
Q2 13:46
3RD & 11
OPP 26
-2
67.1%
Shotgun #9 S.Locklear sacked for loss of 4 yards to the MSU30 (#7 D.Wesolak, #19 J.Brooks)Similar
Q2 12:50
4TH & 15
OPP 30
+47
68.9%
#33 T.Cragun field goal attempt from 47 yards NO GOOD (H: #42 N.Botsford, LS: #39 J.Hancock), clock 12:50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 6TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 6:2167% → 82%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
67.1%
Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU34 (#48 M.Davey)Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+8
67.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short left to #2 S.Lawrence caught at MSU35, for 8 yards to the MSU42 (#2 X.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-8
68.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark sacked for loss of 8 yards to the MSU34 (#3 S.Bowser)Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 18
OWN 34
+6
66.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short right to #5 J.BlackStrain caught at MSU39, for 6 yards to the MSU40 (#9 M.Blocker)Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 12
OWN 40
+10
66.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark rush middle for 10 yards gain to the MSU50 (#10 J.Wilson)Similar
Q2 9:49
4TH & 2
50
+5
68.1%
#12 J.Clark pass complete short left to #0 J.Robinson caught at MSU50, for 5 yards to the UTEP45 (#10 J.Wilson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
70.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UTEP43 (#48 M.Davey)Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+25
70.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete deep right to #9 R.Johnson caught at UTEP18, for 25 yards to the UTEP18 (#9 M.Blocker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
70.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UTEP19 (#18 J.Content; #19 A.Hall)Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 11
OPP 19
0
70.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete short right to #9 R.Johnson thrown to UTEP15 QB hurried by #10 J.WilsonSimilar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 11
OPP 19
+10
69.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short left to #0 J.Robinson caught at UTEP20, for 10 yards to the UTEP09 (#2 X.Smith)Similar
Q2 6:29
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+9
82.3%
#12 J.Clark pass complete short middle to #88 J.Askren caught at UTEP00, for 9 yards to the UTEP00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:29, 1ST DOWN #36 Y.Obeid kick attempt good (H: #25 S.McDonald, LS: #47 A.Kallas)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 7TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 4:3320% → 29%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
80.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Odom rush left for 5 yards gain to the UTEP30 (#19 J.Brooks; #0 M.Neal)Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
79.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete deep left to #89 J.Schuchts thrown to MSU50 PENALTY MSU Holding (#29 C.Ford) 10 yards from UTEP30 to UTEP40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
79.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete short right to #6 K.Odom thrown to MSU45 PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (#12 J.Dunbar) 10 yards from UTEP40 to UTEP50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
50
+2
78.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short right to #88 T.Goins Jr. caught at UTEP50, for 2 yards to the MSU48 (#44 K.Young; #2 A.Smith)Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+16
78.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Emory rush middle for 16 yards gain to the MSU32 (#7 D.Wesolak), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
77.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Emory rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU28 (#44 K.Young; #19 J.Brooks)Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+11
77.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Emory rush middle for 11 yards gain to the MSU17 (#19 J.Brooks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
77.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear rush right for 6 yards gain to the MSU11 (#2 A.Smith)Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 4
OPP 11
0
77.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear rush right for 0 yards to the MSU11 (#7 D.Wesolak)Similar
Q2 6:29
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+10
78.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short left to #19 E.Willis III caught at MSU08, for 10 yards to the MSU01 (#12 J.Dunbar), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
77.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Emory rush middle for 0 yards to the MSU01 (#9 D.Dixson; #7 D.Wesolak) PENALTY MSU Offside (#12 J.Dunbar). NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
77.3%
#9 S.Locklear rush middle for 0 yards to the MSU01 (#90 S.Smithson; #50 M.Toney) PENALTY MSU Offside (#90 S.Smithson). NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
77.3%
#9 S.Locklear rush middle for 0 yards to the MSU01 (#6 J.Lloyd; #50 M.Toney)Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.5%
#9 S.Locklear rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:56 #91 C.Arreola kick attempt good (H: #11 C.McConnell, LS: #39 J.Hancock)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 8TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 1:0875% → 88%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
74.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark rush right for 3 yards gain to the MSU29 (#48 M.Davey), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+7
74.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short middle to #22 R.Green Jr. caught at MSU36, for 7 yards to the MSU36 (#5 S.Barnes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
75.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short right to #15 T.Gardner caught at MSU40, for 9 yards to the MSU45 (#5 S.Barnes), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+45
76.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short middle to #0 J.Robinson caught at UTEP36, for 45 yards to the UTEP10 (#22 L.Russell; #48 M.Davey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
77.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 R.Green Jr. rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UTEP11 (#32 E.Baldwin)Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+9
78.4%
Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete short left to #9 R.Johnson thrown to UTEP00 PENALTY UTEP Pass Interference (#18 J.Content) 9 yards from UTEP11 to UTEP02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
77.7%
Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete short right to #11 M.Cope thrown to UTEP00 broken up by #9 M.BlockerSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
87.5%
Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short right to #88 J.Askren caught at UTEP02, for 2 yards to the UTEP00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:43, 1ST DOWN #36 Y.Obeid kick attempt good (H: #25 S.McDonald, LS: #47 A.Kallas)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 9END OF HALF
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0016% → 17%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
83.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short left to #23 W.Davis Jr. caught at UTEP32, for 8 yards to the UTEP33 (#14 T.Anderson), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-7
82.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear sacked for loss of 7 yards to the UTEP26 (#7 D.Wesolak)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:0085% → 85%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
84.9%
Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MSU31 (#5 S.Barnes)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
85.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short left to #2 S.Lawrence caught at MSU28, for 2 yards loss to the MSU29 (#48 M.Davey)Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+1
84.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short left to #15 T.Gardner caught at MSU30, for 1 yard to the MSU30 (#18 J.Content)Similar
Q3 13:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+41
84.7%
#25 S.McDonald punt 47 yards to the UTEP23 #13 N.Henry return 41 yards to the MSU36 (#30 C.Wiest; #25 S.McDonald)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 11FG
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:0816% → 17%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
84.5%
Shotgun #21 M.Taylor rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU33 (#6 J.Lloyd; #7 D.Wesolak)Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+4
83.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short right to #19 E.Willis III caught at MSU34, for 4 yards to the MSU29 (#6 J.Lloyd; #44 K.Young)Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 3
OPP 29
0
84.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete short right to #19 E.Willis III thrown to MSU25 broken up by #7 D.WesolakSimilar
Q3 13:00
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+5
85.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Emory rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MSU24 (#55 A.Poole; #44 K.Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
83.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short left to #19 E.Willis III caught at MSU20, for 15 yards to the MSU09 (#12 J.Dunbar), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
83.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear sacked for loss of 2 yards to the MSU11 (#7 D.Wesolak)Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+3
83.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear rush left for 3 yards gain to the MSU08 (#12 J.Dunbar)Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
84.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete short left to #21 M.Taylor thrown to MSU02 QB hurried by #55 A.PooleSimilar
Q3 9:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
82.9%
#33 T.Cragun field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD (H: #42 N.Botsford, LS: #39 J.Hancock), clock 09:52Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:5686% → 85%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
85.7%
Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush left for 17 yards gain (4) to the MSU42 (#18 J.Content) PENALTY MSU Holding (#51 E.Nnabugwu) 10 yards from MSU29 to MSU19Similar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 16
OWN 19
-6
85.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark sacked for loss of 6 yards to the MSU13 (#7 K.Johnson)Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 22
OWN 13
0
85.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete short right to #5 J.BlackStrain thrown to MSU25Similar
Q3 9:52
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+9
85.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short middle to #22 R.Green Jr. caught at MSU21, for 9 yards to the MSU22 (#10 J.Wilson)Similar
Q3 7:56
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
85.4%
#25 S.McDonald punt 32 yards to the UTEP46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 13TD
8 plays · 54 yds · 2:5017% → 32%
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
83.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear rush left for 9 yards gain to the MSU45 (#2 A.Smith)Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+15
82.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete short left to #19 E.Willis III thrown to MSU30 PENALTY MSU Targeting (#0 M.Neal) 15 yards from MSU45 to MSU30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
81.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear rush right for 11 yards gain to the MSU19 (#14 T.Anderson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
81.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Emory rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU18 (#90 S.Smithson; #43 C.Dietlin)Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
81.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete short middle to #17 J.Brown thrown to MSU02 broken up by #29 C.FordSimilar
Q3 7:56
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+9
83.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear rush right for 9 yards gain to the MSU09 (#2 A.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
81.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Emory rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MSU04 (#7 D.Wesolak)Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
68.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:06 #91 C.Arreola kick attempt good (H: #11 C.McConnell, LS: #39 J.Hancock)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 14TD
7 plays · -2 yds · 2:4578% → 56%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
77.5%
No Huddle #2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU21 (#48 M.Davey; #0 U.Ezeani)Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+11
77.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short middle to #1 D.Luke caught at MSU32, for 11 yards to the MSU32 (#12 D.Thompson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
77.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark sacked for loss of 10 yards to the MSU22 (#0 U.Ezeani)Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 20
OWN 22
-7
77.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark sacked for loss of 7 yards to the MSU15 (#7 K.Johnson)Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 27
OWN 15
0
76.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete short right to #1 D.Luke thrown to MSU20Similar
Q3 2:15
4TH & 27
OWN 15
0
55.8%
Ekow Taylor 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Carlos Arreola Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 15TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:0659% → 87%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
59.1%
Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 1 yard loss to the MSU24 (#7 K.Johnson)Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+8
58.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short right to #11 M.Cope caught at MSU29, for 8 yards to the MSU32 (#0 U.Ezeani; #13 T.Tillman)Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
58.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short left to #0 J.Robinson caught at MSU34, for 9 yards to the MSU41 (#13 T.Tillman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
61.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU45 (#0 U.Ezeani)Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+2
62.9%
Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush right for 2 yards gain to the MSU47 (#48 M.Davey)Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+14
61.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short left to #9 R.Johnson caught at MSU49, for 14 yards to the UTEP39 (#12 D.Thompson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
63.9%
Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush right for 5 yards gain to the UTEP34 (#48 M.Davey)Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+3
65.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UTEP31 (#0 U.Ezeani)Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+19
63.3%
No Huddle #12 J.Clark pass complete short left to #40 C.Lair caught at UTEP30, for 19 yards to the UTEP12 (#2 X.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
65.1%
No Huddle #2 S.Lawrence rush right for 0 yards to the UTEP12 (#5 S.Barnes)Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
65.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete short left to #0 J.Robinson thrown to UTEP00Similar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+12
86.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short right to #15 T.Gardner caught at UTEP10, for 12 yards to the UTEP00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:09, 1ST DOWN #36 Y.Obeid kick attempt good (H: #25 S.McDonald, LS: #47 A.Kallas)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5519% → 18%
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete short right to #1 A.Emory thrown to UTEP30 QB hurried by #7 D.WesolakSimilar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
81.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Emory rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UTEP31 (#44 K.Young)Similar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
81.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete short middle to #88 T.Goins Jr. thrown to UTEP35 broken up by #6 J.LloydSimilar
Q4 10:14
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
82.5%
#42 N.Botsford punt 43 yards to the MSU26, out of bounds at MSU26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 17TD
14 plays · 74 yds · 7:0286% → 98%
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
85.9%
#2 S.Lawrence rush right for 11 yards gain to the MSU37 (#48 M.Davey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
86.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short right to #0 J.Robinson caught at MSU39, for 2 yards to the MSU39 (#5 S.Barnes)Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+5
87.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark rush right for 5 yards gain to the MSU44, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 10:14
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+10
86.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush right for 10 yards gain to the UTEP46, out of bounds at UTEP46 PENALTY MSU Holding (#85 D.Hipp) 10 yards from MSU44 to MSU34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 10:14
3RD & 13
OWN 34
0
84.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete short right to #15 T.Gardner thrown to UTEP49Similar
Q4 10:14
4TH & 13
OWN 34
+10
84.0%
#25 S.McDonald punt 57 yards to the UTEP09 #13 N.Henry return 50 yards to the MSU41 (#25 S.McDonald) PENALTY UTEP Holding (#22 L.Russell) 10 yards from MSU34 to MSU44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
87.5%
Shotgun #22 R.Green Jr. rush right for 1 yard gain to the MSU45 (#5 S.Barnes)Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+26
87.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete deep middle to #88 J.Askren caught at UTEP35, for 26 yards to the UTEP29 (#5 S.Barnes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
88.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush left for 3 yards gain to the UTEP26 (#19 A.Hall; #10 J.Wilson)Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+1
88.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush right for 1 yard gain to the UTEP25 (#48 M.Davey)Similar
Q4 10:14
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+10
87.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete short right to #15 T.Gardner thrown to UTEP24 PENALTY UTEP Holding (#18 J.Content) 10 yards from UTEP25 to UTEP15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
88.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 13 yards gain to the UTEP02 (#6 E.Taylor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
88.2%
Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UTEP03 (#99 C.Gustafson; #3 S.Bowser)Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.6%
Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short left to #1 D.Luke caught at UTEP02, for 3 yards to the UTEP00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:12 #36 Y.Obeid kick attempt good (H: #25 S.McDonald, LS: #47 A.Kallas)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 18DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:464% → 4%
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
95.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short left to #18 R.Campbell caught at UTEP41, for 21 yards to the UTEP46, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
95.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete short left to #18 R.Campbell thrown to UTEP50Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
95.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete short left to #23 W.Davis Jr. thrown to UTEP50Similar
Q4 3:12
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
95.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete short left to #23 W.Davis Jr. thrown to MSU40Similar
Q4 2:26
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
96.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass incomplete short right thrown to UTEP40 QB hurried by #7 D.Wesolak, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 19END OF GAME
13 plays · 33 yds · 0:2698% → 99%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
97.7%
Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush left for 3 yards gain to the UTEP43 (#0 U.Ezeani; #48 M.Davey)Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+5
97.7%
Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush right for 5 yards gain to the UTEP38 (#22 L.Russell)Similar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+15
98.2%
#12 J.Clark pass intercepted by #12 D.Thompson at UTEP10, End Of Play PENALTY UTEP Pass Interference (#12 D.Thompson) 15 yards from UTEP38 to UTEP23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
98.3%
Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UTEP19 (#18 J.Content)Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+9
98.2%
#12 J.Clark rush right for 9 yards gain to the UTEP11, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
98.4%
Kneel down by #12 J.Clark at UTEP12 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 11
OPP 12
-1
98.4%
Kneel down by #12 J.Clark at UTEP13 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 6
OPP 19
-1
98.6%
#2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UTEP20 (#48 M.Davey; #10 J.Wilson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:09
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short right to #15 T.Gardner caught at UTEP10, for 12 yards to the UTEP00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:09, 1ST DOWN #36 Y.Obeid kick attempt good (H: #25 S.McDonald, LS: #47 A.Kallas)
+21.6
TD · Q3 2:15
Ekow Taylor 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Carlos Arreola Kick)
-20.4
TD · Q3 5:06
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:06 #91 C.Arreola kick attempt good (H: #11 C.McConnell, LS: #39 J.Hancock)
-13.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com