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JXST

Jacksonville State 24 at Middle Tennessee 21

MTSU
2025 · Week 10 · Oct 29, 2025 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
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Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadJXST aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreJXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:57 · (08:56) #32 A.Logan punt 46 yards to the JSU18 fair catch by #1 M.Pettway at JSU18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 56Home team on offense+3.6Pregame prior−3.2Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor+1.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Blowout margin−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:25: (07:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 G.Wimsatt pass complete deep right to #11 D.Johnson caught at MTSU25, for 56 yards to the MTSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:25, 1ST DOWN #37 G.Rippa kick attempt good (H: #29 C.Backe, LS: #50 C.Marszalek) — JXST win probability +12.7 pts (now 56%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 8:35: (08:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass complete short left to #1 N.Cox caught at JSU20, for 0 yards to the JSU19 (#21 M.Butler; #22 J.Jenkins) — MTSU win probability +20.0 pts (now 73%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 13:29: (13:30) #37 G.Rippa field goal attempt from 47 yards GOOD (H: #29 C.Backe, LS: #50 C.Marszalek), clock 13:29 — JXST win probability +9.1 pts (now 33%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:06: Deondre Johnson 30 Yd pass from Caden Creel (Garrison Rippa Kick) — JXST win probability +29.9 pts (now 71%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:00: End of 4th quarter. — JXST win probability +18.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7JXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:59MTSU 4th & 3 at MTSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:43JXST 4th & 3 at JXST 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:04MTSU 4th & 16 at JXST 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:16JXST 4th & 10 at JXST 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:07JXST 4th & 4 at MTSU 42, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    51.1%−1.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    51.5%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:54MTSU 4th & 12 at midfield, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:02JXST 4th & 7 at JXST 21, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−1.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:57MTSU 4th & 10 at MTSU 36, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:17MTSU 4th & 1 at MTSU 36, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:27JXST 4th & 4 at MTSU 49, up 1
    Close callPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:04MTSU 4th & 4 at JXST 48, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    46.4%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:16JXST 4th & 1 at JXST 34, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    54.8%−1.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:06JXST 4th & 2 at JXST 44, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%−1.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:29JXST 4th & 27 at MTSU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−5.1
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.0%
    56% to make
    Punt
    18.9%−3.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:53MTSU 4th & 5 at MTSU 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
JXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q4 10:06JXST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−1.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4645% → 46%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
45.1%
(14:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass complete short right to #6 A.Jones caught at MTSU26, for 3 yards to the MTSU28, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
45.2%
(14:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass complete short right to #9 J.Middlebrook caught at MTSU31, for 5 yards to the MTSU33 (#43 T.Woods), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-1
45.4%
(13:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Middlebrook rush left for 1 yard loss to the MTSU32 (#93 J.Campbell; #40 W.O'Steen)Similar
Q1 12:59
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
45.5%
(12:58) #32 A.Logan punt 43 yards to the JSU25 fair catch by #1 M.Pettway at JSU25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0254% → 54%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
45.6%
(12:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush middle for 3 yards gain to the JSU28 (#3 A.Mitchell)Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
45.6%
(12:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush right for 4 yards gain to the JSU32 (#3 A.Mitchell)Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
45.7%
(12:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush middle for 0 yards to the JSU32 (#98 S.Woods; #9 P.Hughes)Similar
Q1 11:43
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
46.0%
(11:41) #87 C.Donaghy punt 37 yards to the MTSU31 fair catch by #9 J.Middlebrook at MTSU31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:3346% → 46%
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
46.0%
(11:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass incomplete deep right to #13 C.Lacy thrown to JSU35Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+9
46.0%
(11:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass complete short left to #82 H.Tipton caught at MTSU33, for 9 yards to the MTSU40 (#2 T.Franklin, Jr.)Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+1
46.4%
(10:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Middlebrook rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MTSU41 (#99 E.Oyebadejo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
46.6%
(10:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Middlebrook rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MTSU42 (#91 G.Stansbury)Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+15
46.7%
(09:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass complete short middle to #13 C.Lacy caught at JSU43, for 15 yards to the JSU43 (#1 C.Nix), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
47.2%
(09:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Middlebrook rush middle for 0 yards to the JSU43 (#59 M.Sanders)Similar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
47.2%
(08:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass incomplete short right to #13 C.Lacy thrown to JSU33Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 10
OPP 43
-6
47.1%
(08:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato rush middle for 6 yards loss to the JSU49 fumbled by #11 N.Vattiato at JSU49 recovered by MTSU #11 N.Vattiato at JSU49, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 8:04
4TH & 16
OPP 49
0
46.4%
(08:05) #32 A.Logan punt 39 yards to the JSU10, out of bounds at JSU10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3753% → 53%
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
46.7%
(07:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush right for 0 yards to the JSU10 (#39 C.Noble)Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
46.7%
(07:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short left to #1 M.Pettway thrown to JSU17 broken up by #2 D.McDonaldSimilar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
47.0%
(07:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short left to #9 C.Coombs thrown to JSU22 broken up by #0 A.BynumSimilar
Q1 7:16
4TH & 10
OWN 10
0
47.3%
(07:18) #87 C.Donaghy punt 44 yards to the MTSU46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 54 yds · 2:5748% → 52%
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
47.7%
(07:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato rush left for 12 yards gain to the JSU42 (#12 M.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
48.0%
(06:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass incomplete deep middle to #13 C.Lacy thrown to JSU00Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+14
48.0%
(06:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 K.Stokes rush right for 14 yards gain to the JSU28 (#3 T.Fegans), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
48.5%
(05:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass complete short right to #82 H.Tipton caught at JSU25, for 12 yards to the JSU16 (#49 T.Gallagher), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
48.7%
(05:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 D.Taylor rush middle for 0 yards to the JSU16 (#91 G.Stansbury)Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+6
48.9%
(04:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 D.Taylor rush middle for 6 yards gain to the JSU10 (#21 M.Butler)Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+10
52.1%
(04:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass complete short left to #29 D.Taylor caught at JSU13, for 10 yards to the JSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:05, 1ST DOWN #32 A.Logan rush attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 6DOWNS
11 plays · 36 yds · 4:4649% → 48%
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
50.8%
(03:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush right for 7 yards gain to the JSU32 (#3 A.Mitchell; #39 C.Noble)Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
50.2%
(03:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 6 yards gain to the JSU38 (#46 R.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
50.7%
(02:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 K.Lando rush middle for 5 yards gain to the JSU43 (#7 B.Harris; #98 S.Woods)Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+4
50.1%
(02:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush left for 4 yards gain to the JSU47, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+5
50.2%
(02:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 K.Lando rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MTSU48 (#9 P.Hughes; #46 R.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
50.4%
(01:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 K.Lando rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MTSU47 (#3 A.Mitchell; #11 B.Buckner)Similar
Q1 0:57
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+4
50.3%
(00:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush right for 4 yards gain to the MTSU43 (#58 K.Smith), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 0:19
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+1
50.5%
(00:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 K.Lando rush right for 1 yard gain to the MTSU42 (#0 A.Bynum; #58 K.Smith)Similar
Q2 14:07
4TH & 4
OPP 42
+3
51.8%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush right for 3 yards gain to the MTSU39 (#11 B.Buckner; #39 C.Noble), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:1956% → 54%
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
55.5%
(13:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Middlebrook rush left for 13 yards gain to the JSU48 (#1 C.Nix), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
56.2%
(13:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Middlebrook rush middle for 2 yards loss to the JSU50 (#99 E.Oyebadejo)Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 12
50
0
55.4%
(13:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass incomplete deep right to #1 N.Cox thrown to JSU23 broken up by #22 J.JenkinsSimilar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 12
50
0
54.8%
(13:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass incomplete short left to #5 M.Butler thrown to JSU32 broken up by #43 T.WoodsSimilar
Q2 12:54
4TH & 12
50
0
53.8%
(12:55) #32 A.Logan punt 43 yards to the JSU07Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:3846% → 44%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
53.7%
(12:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush middle for 5 yards gain to the JSU12 (#3 A.Mitchell; #95 Z.Simpson-Smith)Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+2
53.8%
(12:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush middle for 2 yards gain to the JSU14 (#3 A.Mitchell; #95 Z.Simpson-Smith)Similar
Q2 11:36
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+4
54.7%
(11:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush middle for 4 yards gain to the JSU18 (#2 D.McDonald; #7 B.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
54.1%
(11:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush left for 2 yards gain to the JSU20 (#3 A.Mitchell; #9 P.Hughes)Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+1
54.4%
(10:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush middle for 1 yard gain to the JSU21 (#9 P.Hughes; #3 A.Mitchell)Similar
Q2 10:16
3RD & 7
OWN 21
0
55.4%
(10:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short left to #13 P.Baldwin thrown to JSU23 QB hurried by #46 R.JohnsonSimilar
Q2 10:02
4TH & 7
OWN 21
0
56.2%
(10:10) #87 C.Donaghy punt 43 yards to the MTSU36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0057% → 56%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
57.4%
(09:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass incomplete short left to #9 J.Middlebrook thrown to MTSU43Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
57.2%
(09:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Middlebrook rush middle for 0 yards to the MTSU36 (#59 M.Sanders)Similar
Q2 9:06
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
56.8%
(09:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass incomplete deep left to #8 A.Walker thrown to JSU43Similar
Q2 8:57
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
55.9%
(08:56) #32 A.Logan punt 46 yards to the JSU18 fair catch by #1 M.Pettway at JSU18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 10TD
4 plays · 82 yds · 1:2045% → 56%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
55.5%
(08:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush left for 0 yards to the JSU18 (#31 M.Malaki-Donaldson)Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+6
55.9%
(08:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #2 G.Wimsatt caught at JSU15, for 6 yards to the JSU24 (#7 B.Harris), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+20
57.1%
(07:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 G.Wimsatt pass complete short left to #4 C.Cook caught at JSU20, for 20 yards to the JSU44 (#25 J.Lowe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
44.5%
(07:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 G.Wimsatt pass complete deep right to #11 D.Johnson caught at MTSU25, for 56 yards to the MTSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:25, 1ST DOWN #37 G.Rippa kick attempt good (H: #29 C.Backe, LS: #50 C.Marszalek)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:4648% → 48%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
47.9%
(07:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass complete short right to #1 N.Cox caught at MTSU30, for 4 yards to the MTSU31 (#22 J.Jenkins)Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+4
48.3%
(06:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 D.Taylor rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MTSU35 (#44 K.Perry; #92 T.Carter)Similar
Q2 6:04
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+1
48.6%
(06:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 D.Taylor rush right for 1 yard gain to the MTSU36 (#31 M.Woods)Similar
Q2 5:17
4TH & 1
OWN 36
+3
47.5%
(05:26) #32 A.Logan punt 45 yards to the JSU19 #1 M.Pettway return 3 yards to the JSU22 (#9 P.Hughes) PENALTY JSU Holding (#80 C.Williams) 10 yards from JSU22 to JSU12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 12PUNT
13 plays · 39 yds · 3:3954% → 55%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
46.1%
(05:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 A.Paul rush middle for 1 yard loss to the JSU11 (#31 M.Malaki-Donaldson)Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 11
OWN 11
+5
46.5%
(04:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush middle for 5 yards gain to the JSU16 (#98 S.Woods)Similar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+12
47.3%
(04:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #0 A.Paul caught at JSU12, for 12 yards to the JSU28 (#0 A.Bynum), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
45.6%
(03:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush left for 5 yards loss to the JSU23 (#35 M.Byard)Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 15
OWN 23
0
46.3%
(02:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #3 B.Rechsteiner caught at JSU23, for 0 yards to the JSU23 (#21 A.Muhammad)Similar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 15
OWN 23
+7
47.3%
(02:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush middle for 7 yards gain to the JSU30 (#0 A.Bynum)Similar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 8
OWN 30
+15
47.9%
(01:50) #87 C.Donaghy punt 34 yards to the MTSU36 fair catch by #9 J.Middlebrook at MTSU36 PENALTY MTSU Face Mask (#17 G.Carter) 15 yards from JSU30 to JSU45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
43.6%
(01:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #3 B.Rechsteiner caught at JSU41, for 9 yards to the MTSU46 (#3 A.Mitchell; #7 B.Harris)Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 1
OPP 46
0
42.1%
(01:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short left to #13 P.Baldwin thrown to MTSU42Similar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 1
OPP 46
-3
42.4%
(01:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush left for 3 yards loss to the MTSU49 (#46 R.Johnson)Similar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
44.8%
(01:23) #87 C.Donaghy punt 27 yards to the MTSU22 fair catch by #9 J.Middlebrook at MTSU22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13INT
12 plays · 30 yds · 1:1448% → 49%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
47.5%
(01:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass complete short left to #82 H.Tipton caught at MTSU24, for 7 yards to the MTSU29 (#59 M.Sanders) PENALTY MTSU Holding (#56 E.Harris) 10 yards from MTSU22 to MTSU12. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 20
OWN 12
0
47.6%
(01:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass incomplete short right to #9 J.Middlebrook thrown to MTSU07Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 20
OWN 12
+22
47.3%
(01:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass complete short right to #9 J.Middlebrook caught at MTSU15, for 22 yards to the MTSU34 (#43 T.Woods), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
48.0%
(00:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass incomplete short left to #6 A.Jones thrown to MTSU38 broken up by #3 T.FegansSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-4
47.8%
(00:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato sacked for loss of 4 yards to the MTSU30 (#99 E.Oyebadejo)Similar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 14
OWN 30
+16
46.5%
(00:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass complete short middle to #9 J.Middlebrook caught at MTSU35, for 16 yards to the MTSU46 (#12 M.Jones; #40 W.O'Steen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
50.9%
(00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass incomplete deep left to #17 G.Carter thrown to JSU33Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
49.2%
(00:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass complete short middle to #17 G.Carter caught at JSU49, for 6 yards to the JSU48 (#31 M.Woods)Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
51.0%
(00:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass incomplete short right to #13 C.Lacy thrown to JSU38Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 4
OPP 48
-72
49.3%
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass intercepted by #1 C.Nix at JSU07 #1 C.Nix return 72 yards to the MTSU21 (#9 J.Middlebrook)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:4254% → 53%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
46.3%
(14:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #4 C.Cook caught at JSU22, for 2 yards loss to the JSU23 (#3 A.Mitchell)Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+9
46.6%
(14:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short middle to #3 B.Rechsteiner caught at JSU31, for 9 yards to the JSU32 (#2 D.McDonald)Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
46.3%
(13:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 K.Lando rush middle for 2 yards gain to the JSU34 (#0 A.Bynum; #46 R.Johnson)Similar
Q3 13:16
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
47.2%
(13:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush middle for 2 yards gain to the JSU36 (#11 B.Buckner), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
45.4%
(12:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush left for 6 yards gain to the JSU42 (#9 P.Hughes)Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 4
OWN 42
-1
44.0%
(12:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 K.Lando rush middle for 1 yard loss to the JSU41 (#3 A.Mitchell)Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+3
45.2%
(11:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #13 P.Baldwin caught at JSU41, for 3 yards to the JSU44 (#2 D.McDonald; #9 P.Hughes)Similar
Q3 11:06
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
46.9%
(11:08) #87 C.Donaghy punt 56 yards to the MTSU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 5:1848% → 75%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
48.4%
(11:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass complete short right to #6 A.Jones caught at MTSU25, for 12 yards to the MTSU32 (#40 W.O'Steen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
49.1%
(10:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Middlebrook rush middle for 2 yards loss to the MTSU30 (#92 T.Carter; #40 W.O'Steen)Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 12
OWN 30
0
48.4%
(09:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass incomplete short right to #1 N.Cox thrown to MTSU41Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+28
46.9%
(09:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass complete short middle to #82 H.Tipton caught at MTSU34, for 28 yards to the JSU42 (#31 M.Woods; #1 C.Nix), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+23
53.3%
(09:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass complete short middle to #1 N.Cox caught at JSU29, for 23 yards to the JSU19 (#43 T.Woods), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
73.3%
(08:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass complete short left to #1 N.Cox caught at JSU20, for 0 yards to the JSU19 (#21 M.Butler; #22 J.Jenkins)Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
74.9%
(07:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass incomplete short left thrown to JSU15 QB hurried by #91 G.StansburySimilar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+11
73.8%
(07:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato rush middle for 11 yards gain to the JSU08 (#40 W.O'Steen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
75.5%
(07:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Middlebrook rush middle for 4 yards gain to the JSU04 (#96 D.Prater; #2 T.Franklin, Jr.)Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
76.0%
(06:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato rush middle for 2 yards gain to the JSU02 (#99 E.Oyebadejo)Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
75.2%
(05:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass complete short left to #9 J.Middlebrook caught at JSU03, for 2 yards to the JSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:32 #11 N.Vattiato pass attempt Successful #82 H.Tipton pass attempt SuccessfulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 16FG
16 plays · 45 yds · 6:5131% → 33%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
68.9%
(05:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 G.Wimsatt rush right for 9 yards gain to the JSU34 (#3 A.Mitchell)Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
67.3%
(04:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 4 yards gain to the JSU38 (#3 A.Mitchell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
68.5%
(04:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #4 C.Cook caught at JSU35, for 3 yards to the JSU41 (#21 A.Muhammad)Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+7
68.1%
(03:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #11 D.Johnson caught at JSU45, for 7 yards to the JSU48 (#2 D.McDonald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
67.4%
(03:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 1 yard gain to the JSU49 (#0 A.Bynum; #9 P.Hughes)Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+6
68.1%
(02:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MTSU45 (#39 C.Noble)Similar
Q3 1:57
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+7
67.9%
(02:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush right for 7 yards gain to the MTSU38, out of bounds at MTSU38, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
69.3%
(01:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush middle for 9 yards gain to the MTSU29 (#7 B.Harris)Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+2
67.1%
(00:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MTSU27 (#3 A.Mitchell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
67.3%
(00:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #3 B.Rechsteiner caught at MTSU27, for 14 yards to the MTSU13 (#39 C.Noble), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-11
67.5%
(14:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 C.Coombs rush right for 11 yards loss to the MTSU24 (#46 R.Johnson)Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 21
OPP 24
-6
72.7%
(14:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel sacked for loss of 6 yards to the MTSU30 (#46 R.Johnson)Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 27
OPP 30
0
76.0%
(13:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short right to #13 P.Baldwin thrown to MTSU35 QB hurried by #0 A.BynumSimilar
Q4 13:29
4TH & 27
OPP 30
+47
66.9%
(13:30) #37 G.Rippa field goal attempt from 47 yards GOOD (H: #29 C.Backe, LS: #50 C.Marszalek), clock 13:29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2168% → 66%
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.3%
(13:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass complete short left to #13 C.Lacy caught at MTSU25, for 0 yards to the MTSU25 (#2 T.Franklin, Jr.)Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
68.1%
(12:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass incomplete short right to #9 J.Middlebrook thrown to MTSU40 broken up by #99 E.OyebadejoSimilar
Q4 12:39
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
66.5%
(12:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato rush left for 5 yards gain to the MTSU30 (#10 R.Rainer), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 11:53
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
66.2%
(11:56) #32 A.Logan punt 43 yards to the JSU27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 18TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 1:3935% → 71%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
65.5%
(11:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush left for 7 yards gain to the JSU34 (#7 B.Harris)Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 3
OWN 34
-7
63.1%
(11:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush left for 7 yards loss to the JSU27 (#31 M.Malaki-Donaldson)Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+38
68.3%
(10:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete deep right to #11 D.Johnson caught at MTSU33, for 38 yards to the MTSU35 (#2 D.McDonald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
59.4%
(09:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MTSU33 (#9 P.Hughes; #98 S.Woods) PENALTY MTSU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from MTSU35 to MTSU30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 5
OPP 30
+30
29.5%
Deondre Johnson 30 Yd pass from Caden Creel (Garrison Rippa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:06
Deondre Johnson 30 Yd pass from Caden Creel (Garrison Rippa Kick)
-29.9
KEY PLAY · Q3 8:35
(08:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass complete short left to #1 N.Cox caught at JSU20, for 0 yards to the JSU19 (#21 M.Butler; #22 J.Jenkins)
+20
TD · Q4 0:00
End of 4th quarter.
-18.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com