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FIU

Florida International 21 at Missouri State 28

MOST
2025 · Week 10 · Oct 29, 2025 · Plaster Sports Complex
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Win probability · MOST
modelMOST aheadFIU aheadconfidence bandkey playMOST scoreFIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:59 · #6 T.Wilhoit punt 43 yards to the MSU00, Touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorBlowout margin
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 115Home team on offense+7.6Garbage-time factor−0.5Score differential+1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.0Pregame prior+0.9Blowout margin+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:32: No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 41 yards gain to the FIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:32, 1ST DOWN #36 Y.Obeid kick attempt good (H: #25 S.McDonald, LS: #47 A.Kallas) — MOST win probability +9.6 pts (now 68%) (top driver: MOST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:44: Alex Perry 25 Yd pass from Keyone Jenkins (Noah Grant Kick) — FIU win probability +16.7 pts (now 53%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:47: No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short left to #0 J.Robinson caught at FIU00, for 8 yards to the FIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:47, 1ST DOWN #36 Y.Obeid kick attempt good (H: #25 S.McDonald, LS: #47 A.Kallas) — MOST win probability +17.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MOST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:29: No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Pesansky pass complete short right to #18 J.Stone caught at MSU00, for 5 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:29, 1ST DOWN #16 N.Grant kick attempt good (H: #6 T.Wilhoit, LS: #47 J.Wood) — FIU win probability +9.5 pts (now 17%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:48: #12 J.Clark pass complete short right to #0 J.Robinson caught at MSU26, for 5 yards to the MSU26 (#2 B.Blades II), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN — MOST win probability +13.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MOST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MOST made the numbers' call on 3 of 7FIU made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 12:37MOST 4th & 12 at MOST 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:35MOST 4th & 9 at FIU 49, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    61.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:00FIU 4th & 3 at FIU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.4%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:15MOST 4th & 11 at MOST 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:16FIU 4th & 8 at MOST 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    38.5%−3.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:17MOST 4th & 3 at MOST 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:12FIU 4th & 7 at FIU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:00FIU 4th & 4 at MOST 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    30.6%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:11FIU 4th & 5 at FIU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:59FIU 4th & 24 at MOST 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−3.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    24.6%−1.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:49MOST 4th & 4 at MOST 36, up 7
    Close callPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:07FIU 4th & 16 at FIU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−4.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:38MOST 4th & 2 at MOST 38, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:25FIU 4th & 4 at FIU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.1%−1.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:45FIU 4th & 6 at FIU 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:48FIU 4th & 15 at FIU 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:48MOST 4th & 8 at MOST 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 0:44FIU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MOSTDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:2353% → 53%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
53.0%
Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short left to #0 J.Robinson caught at MSU20, for 12 yards to the MSU28 (#23 J.McGrew), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
53.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark rush left for 11 yards gain to the MSU39 (#4 V.Evans III), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
53.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark sacked for loss of 3 yards to the MSU36 (#25 K.Simmons)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+1
53.0%
#2 S.Lawrence rush left for 1 yard gain to the MSU37 (#44 K.Davis; #11 P.Courtney Jr.)Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 37
0
53.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete short middle to #15 T.Gardner thrown to FIU50 broken up by #7 J.CelestineSimilar
Q1 12:37
4TH & 12
OWN 37
0
53.2%
#25 S.McDonald punt 27 yards to the FIU36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 2FUMBLE
3 plays · 14 yds · 3:4847% → 45%
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
53.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins pass incomplete deep right to #7 K.McNeal thrown to MSU30Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
53.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins pass complete short middle to #18 J.Stone caught at FIU40, for 11 yards to the FIU47, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MSU Roughing The Passer (#55 A.Poole) 15 yards from FIU47 to MSU38, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-12
55.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins sacked for loss of 12 yards to the MSU50 (#55 A.Poole), fumble by #1 K.Jenkins recovered by MSU #55 A.Poole at MSU50, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 12:0255% → 56%
Q1 12:02
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+2
54.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark rush right for 2 yards gain to the FIU49 (#11 P.Courtney Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 12:02
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
54.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete short left to #9 R.Johnson thrown to FIU40 broken up by #27 M.ClarkSimilar
Q1 10:35
4TH & 9
OPP 49
+4
55.2%
#25 S.McDonald punt 29 yards to the FIU20 #3 C.Jnopierre return 4 yards to the FIU20 fumbled by #3 C.Jnopierre at FIU20 recovered by MSU #91 M.Weisenborn at FIU24, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
50
-1
56.3%
Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 1 yard loss to the MSU49 (#22 S.Sterlin)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 4TD
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:4654% → 55%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
54.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete short right to #5 J.BlackStrain thrown to FIU20Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
54.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete short middle to #5 J.BlackStrain thrown to FIU20 broken up by #19 O.AgunloyeSimilar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+13
54.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short right to #0 J.Robinson caught at FIU11, for 13 yards to the FIU11 (#27 M.Clark), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
54.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush right for 3 yards gain to the FIU08 (#19 O.Agunloye; #99 G.Carter)Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+10
54.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush left for 8 yards gain to the FIU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 00:00 PENALTY MSU Holding (#51 E.Nnabugwu) 10 yards from FIU08 to FIU18. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 17
OPP 18
+15
54.1%
Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete short left to #9 R.Johnson thrown to FIU00 PENALTY FIU Pass Interference (#23 J.McGrew) 15 yards from FIU18 to FIU03, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
54.5%
Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:49 #36 Y.Obeid kick attempt good (H: #25 S.McDonald, LS: #47 A.Kallas)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 5TD
17 plays · 80 yds · 8:4947% → 46%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
53.5%
PENALTY FIU False Start 5 yards from FIU20 to FIU15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+1
53.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Owens rush left for 1 yard gain to the FIU16 (#6 J.Lloyd; #14 T.Anderson)Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+10
53.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins pass complete short middle to #18 J.Stone caught at FIU20, for 10 yards to the FIU26 (#29 C.Ford)Similar
Q1 8:49
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+1
53.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins rush left for 1 yard gain to the FIU27 (#14 T.Anderson)Similar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
53.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins pass incomplete short left to #0 D.Payne thrown to FIU40 QB hurried by #43 C.DietlinSimilar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
53.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins pass complete short left to #7 K.McNeal caught at FIU45, for 6 yards to the FIU45 (#6 J.Lloyd)Similar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+6
53.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Owens rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MSU49 (#2 A.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
52.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Owens rush right for 15 yards gain to the MSU34 (#14 T.Anderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
52.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Owens rush middle for 0 yards to the MSU34 (#7 D.Wesolak)Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+11
52.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins rush left for 11 yards gain to the MSU23 (#0 M.Neal; #6 J.Lloyd), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
52.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins pass complete short left to #4 A.Perry caught at MSU12, for 11 yards to the MSU12 (#14 T.Anderson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
52.4%
No Huddle #5 K.Owens rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MSU06 (#6 J.Lloyd)Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 4
OPP 6
0
52.4%
No Huddle #5 K.Owens rush middle for 0 yards to the MSU06 (#43 C.Dietlin)Similar
Q1 1:04
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+6
51.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins pass complete short right to #0 D.Payne caught at MSU00, for 6 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:04, 1ST DOWN #16 N.Grant kick attempt good (H: #6 T.Wilhoit, LS: #47 J.Wood)Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+12
54.5%
No Huddle #0 D.Payne pass complete short middle to #18 J.Stone caught at FIU25, for 12 yards to the FIU39 (#27 D.Rutherford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:4955% → 53%
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
54.5%
#12 J.Clark sacked for loss of 10 yards to the MSU13 (#43 R.Williams, #99 G.Carter)Similar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 20
OWN 13
+9
54.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short right to #9 R.Johnson caught at MSU18, for 9 yards to the MSU22 (#11 P.Courtney Jr.)Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 22
0
53.7%
Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short left to #15 T.Gardner caught at MSU22, for 0 yards to the MSU22 (#4 V.Evans III)Similar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 11
OWN 22
0
53.3%
#25 S.McDonald punt 0 yards to the MSU22 blocked by #12 W.Etienne recovered by FIU #21 S.Demps at MSU22, #21 S.Demps for 6 yards to the MSU16, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 7MISSED FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5949% → 47%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
51.0%
Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins pass incomplete short middle to #88 J.Verdugo thrown to MSU00 broken up by #0 M.NealSimilar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+2
51.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 A.Carrie rush right for 2 yards gain to the MSU14 (#55 A.Poole; #99 R.Williams)Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 8
OPP 14
0
51.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins pass incomplete short middle to #4 A.Perry thrown to MSU00Similar
Q2 13:16
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+31
52.9%
#16 N.Grant field goal attempt from 31 yards NO GOOD (H: #6 T.Wilhoit, LS: #47 J.Wood), clock 13:16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5955% → 54%
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
54.7%
Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush right for 0 yards to the MSU20 (#0 J.Chaney Jr.)Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
54.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short right to #9 R.Johnson caught at MSU25, for 6 yards to the MSU26 (#22 S.Sterlin)Similar
Q2 13:16
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+1
54.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short right to #0 J.Robinson caught at MSU27, for 1 yard to the MSU27 (#2 B.Blades II)Similar
Q2 11:17
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
53.6%
#25 S.McDonald punt 50 yards to the FIU23 fair catch by #3 C.Jnopierre at FIU23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 4:0546% → 47%
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
53.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Owens rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FIU25 (#19 J.Brooks)Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+4
53.8%
No Huddle #3 C.Jnopierre rush left for 4 yards gain to the FIU29 (#43 C.Dietlin)Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+6
53.6%
No Huddle #1 K.Jenkins pass complete short right to #18 J.Stone caught at FIU34, for 6 yards to the FIU35 (#9 D.Dixson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
53.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Owens rush right for 2 yards gain to the FIU37 (#90 S.Smithson; #14 T.Anderson)Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
52.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Owens rush left for 5 yards gain to the FIU42 (#19 J.Brooks)Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+1
52.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Owens rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FIU43 (#55 A.Poole; #7 D.Wesolak)Similar
Q2 11:17
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+5
53.3%
PENALTY FIU Delay Of Game 5 yards from FIU43 to FIU38. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 7:12
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
53.1%
#6 T.Wilhoit punt 45 yards to the MSU17 fair catch by #9 R.Johnson at MSU17 PENALTY FIU Kick Catch Interference (#4 V.Evans III) 15 yards from MSU17 to MSU32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 10TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 2:4056% → 68%
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
55.6%
Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short left to #5 J.BlackStrain caught at MSU30, for 13 yards to the MSU45 (#22 S.Sterlin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
57.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU47 (#0 J.Chaney Jr.)Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+5
57.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 5 yards gain to the FIU48 (#99 G.Carter; #0 J.Chaney Jr.)Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+7
57.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short middle to #2 S.Lawrence caught at FIU49, for 7 yards to the FIU41 (#0 J.Chaney Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
58.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete deep right to #9 R.Johnson thrown to FIU14 broken up by #4 V.Evans IIISimilar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+41
67.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 41 yards gain to the FIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:32, 1ST DOWN #36 Y.Obeid kick attempt good (H: #25 S.McDonald, LS: #47 A.Kallas)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 11TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:4835% → 53%
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins rush middle for 0 yards to the FIU25 (#7 D.Wesolak; #17 D.Townley)Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
64.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins pass complete short left to #7 K.McNeal caught at FIU28, for 3 yards to the FIU28 (#19 J.Brooks)Similar
Q2 4:32
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+17
65.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins pass complete short middle to #4 A.Perry caught at FIU45, for 17 yards to the FIU45 (#14 T.Anderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
62.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 A.Carrie rush right for 3 yards gain to the FIU48 (#9 D.Dixson), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+3
62.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 A.Carrie rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU49 (#19 J.Brooks; #43 C.Dietlin)Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
62.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins pass incomplete short middle thrown to MSU50 broken up by #6 J.Lloyd QB hurried by #50 M.ToneySimilar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 4
OPP 49
+14
64.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins pass complete short right to #88 J.Verdugo caught at MSU40, for 14 yards to the MSU35 (#29 C.Ford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
60.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 A.Carrie rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MSU30 (#19 J.Brooks; #50 M.Toney)Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+2
59.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Owens rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU28 (#7 D.Wesolak)Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+3
61.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Owens rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU25 (#7 D.Wesolak), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
46.8%
Alex Perry 25 Yd pass from Keyone Jenkins (Noah Grant Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 12END OF HALF
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:3656% → 58%
Q2 0:39
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
55.7%
Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete short left to #15 T.Gardner thrown to MSU40Similar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
56.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete short right to #5 J.BlackStrain thrown to MSU42Similar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+14
54.3%
Shotgun #12 J.Clark rush left for 14 yards gain to the MSU42, out of bounds at MSU42, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
58.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete short right to #22 R.Green Jr. thrown to FIU47Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
57.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short middle to #22 R.Green Jr. caught at MSU46, for 5 yards to the MSU47 (#23 J.McGrew)Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+14
57.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short right to #9 R.Johnson caught at FIU39, for 14 yards to the FIU39 (#27 M.Clark), 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:4948% → 47%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
52.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Owens rush middle for 14 yards gain to the FIU39 (#99 R.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
50.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Owens rush middle for 1 yard loss to the FIU38 (#17 D.Townley)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 38
-4
51.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins pass complete short left to #5 K.Owens caught at FIU35, for 4 yards loss to the FIU34 (#29 C.Ford)Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 34
+10
54.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins rush left for 10 yards gain to the FIU44 (#19 J.Brooks), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 12:11
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
53.3%
#6 T.Wilhoit punt 42 yards to the MSU14 fair catch by #9 R.Johnson at MSU14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 14TD
10 plays · 86 yds · 5:2456% → 78%
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
55.6%
Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU16 (#27 M.Clark)Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+1
55.7%
No Huddle #2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU17 (#22 S.Sterlin)Similar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+12
54.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark rush left for 12 yards gain to the MSU29 (#4 V.Evans III), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-3
56.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark sacked for loss of 5 yards to the MSU24 (#19 O.Agunloye, #44 K.Davis)Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 15
OWN 24
+4
55.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 K.Davis rush left for 4 yards gain to the MSU28 (#22 S.Sterlin)Similar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 11
OWN 28
+27
54.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete deep right to #11 M.Cope caught at FIU45, for 27 yards to the FIU45, out of bounds at FIU45, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY FIU Offside declinedSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
59.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short left to #5 J.BlackStrain caught at FIU38, for 10 yards to the FIU35 (#0 J.Chaney Jr.; #4 V.Evans III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+25
60.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short middle to #11 M.Cope caught at FIU20, for 25 yards to the FIU10 (#27 M.Clark), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
60.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FIU08 (#22 S.Sterlin)Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
77.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short left to #0 J.Robinson caught at FIU00, for 8 yards to the FIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:47, 1ST DOWN #36 Y.Obeid kick attempt good (H: #25 S.McDonald, LS: #47 A.Kallas)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 2:4831% → 28%
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
69.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins rush left for 4 yards gain to the FIU41 (#7 D.Wesolak)Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+12
67.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins pass complete short left to #84 M.Anderson caught at FIU40, for 12 yards to the MSU47 (#19 J.Brooks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+18
67.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Pesansky pass complete short middle to #11 E.Nelson caught at MSU29, for 18 yards to the MSU29 (#0 M.Neal; #29 C.Ford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
64.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 A.Carrie rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MSU22 (#44 K.Young)Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 3
OPP 22
-1
64.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Owens rush right for 1 yard loss to the MSU23 (#91 T.Brantley)Similar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+15
66.7%
PENALTY FIU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#7 K.McNeal) 15 yards from MSU23 to MSU38. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 19
OPP 38
0
70.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins pass incomplete short right to #11 E.Nelson thrown to MSU25 QB hurried by #7 D.WesolakSimilar
Q3 6:47
4TH & 19
OPP 38
+5
71.7%
PENALTY FIU Delay Of Game 5 yards from MSU38 to MSU43. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:59
4TH & 24
OPP 43
0
73.5%
#6 T.Wilhoit punt 43 yards to the MSU00, TouchbackSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 16
OWN 19
+18
72.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins pass complete short left to #7 K.McNeal caught at FIU35, for 18 yards to the FIU37 (#19 J.Brooks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 2:1076% → 77%
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
75.8%
Shotgun #22 R.Green Jr. rush middle for 10 yards gain to the MSU30 (#23 J.McGrew), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
76.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 R.Green Jr. rush right for 7 yards gain to the MSU37 (#22 S.Sterlin; #99 G.Carter)Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 3
OWN 37
-1
77.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 R.Green Jr. rush right for 1 yard loss to the MSU36 (#7 J.Celestine)Similar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
76.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete short right to #0 J.Robinson thrown to MSU40 broken up by #27 M.ClarkSimilar
Q3 1:49
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
77.0%
#25 S.McDonald punt 34 yards to the FIU30 fair catch by #3 C.Jnopierre at FIU30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:4227% → 22%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
72.6%
No Huddle #6 A.Carrie rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FIU32 (#9 D.Dixson)Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
72.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins pass incomplete short left to #84 M.Anderson thrown to FIU40 broken up by #12 J.Dunbar QB hurried by #43 C.DietlinSimilar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 8
OWN 32
-4
74.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins sacked for loss of 8 yards to the FIU24 (#43 C.Dietlin, #50 M.Toney)Similar
Q3 0:07
4TH & 16
OWN 24
+6
78.0%
#6 T.Wilhoit punt 52 yards to the MSU24 #9 R.Johnson return 6 yards to the MSU30 (#88 J.Verdugo)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2982% → 82%
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
82.1%
Shotgun #12 J.Clark rush right for 4 yards gain to the MSU34 (#7 J.Celestine), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+4
82.6%
Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU38 (#0 J.Chaney Jr.)Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 38
0
82.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 0 yards to the MSU38 (#25 K.Simmons; #19 O.Agunloye)Similar
Q4 13:38
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
82.2%
#25 S.McDonald punt 39 yards to the FIU23 fair catch by #3 C.Jnopierre at FIU23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:1321% → 20%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
78.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Owens rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FIU27 (#7 D.Wesolak)Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+14
77.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins pass complete short right to #3 C.Jnopierre caught at FIU32, for 14 yards to the FIU41 (#6 J.Lloyd), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
76.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins pass complete short left to #5 K.Owens caught at FIU39, for 2 yards loss to the FIU39 (#7 D.Wesolak)Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 12
OWN 39
0
78.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins pass incomplete short left to #3 C.Jnopierre thrown to FIU45 broken up by #9 D.DixsonSimilar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 12
OWN 39
+8
79.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 A.Carrie rush left for 8 yards gain to the FIU47 (#19 J.Brooks), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 11:25
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
79.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins pass incomplete short left to #6 A.Carrie thrown to FIU50 broken up by #44 K.Young QB hurried by #43 C.Dietlin, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 20FUMBLE
1 play · 38 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+38
86.5%
#9 R.Johnson rush right for 38 yards gain to the FIU09 fumbled by #9 R.Johnson at FIU13 forced by #0 J.Chaney Jr. recovered by FIU #2 B.Blades II at FIU09, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2519% → 17%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
80.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Owens rush right for 0 yards to the FIU09 (#6 J.Lloyd; #9 D.Dixson)Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+4
80.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Owens rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FIU13 (#19 J.Brooks)Similar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 6
OWN 13
0
81.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Pesansky pass incomplete short right to #84 M.Anderson thrown to FIU20Similar
Q4 9:45
4TH & 6
OWN 13
0
82.7%
#6 T.Wilhoit punt 38 yards to the MSU49 #9 R.Johnson return 0 yards to the MSU49, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 22TD
3 plays · 51 yds · 1:2487% → 96%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
87.2%
#2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU50 (#22 S.Sterlin)Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 9
50
+42
87.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush right for 42 yards gain to the FIU08 (#22 S.Sterlin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
95.6%
Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short left to #0 J.Robinson caught at FIU09, for 8 yards to the FIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:21 #36 Y.Obeid kick attempt good (H: #25 S.McDonald, LS: #47 A.Kallas)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 1:278% → 6%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
92.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 A.Carrie rush middle for 8 yards gain to the FIU31 (#19 J.Brooks; #44 K.Young)Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+4
91.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 A.Carrie rush right for 4 yards gain to the FIU35 (#29 C.Ford; #44 K.Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
91.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Pesansky pass incomplete short right thrown to FIU40 QB hurried by #50 M.ToneySimilar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
91.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Pesansky pass incomplete short left to #84 M.Anderson thrown to FIU48 QB hurried by #50 M.ToneySimilar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+5
92.6%
PENALTY FIU Delay Of Game 5 yards from FIU35 to FIU30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 15
OWN 30
0
92.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Pesansky pass incomplete short right to #4 A.Perry thrown to FIU40 broken up by #44 K.YoungSimilar
Q4 6:48
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
93.7%
#6 T.Wilhoit punt 48 yards to the MSU22 fair catch by #9 R.Johnson at MSU22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0096% → 96%
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
95.7%
Shotgun #22 R.Green Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU24 (#35 J.Taylor; #22 S.Sterlin)Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
95.7%
Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete short left to #11 M.Cope thrown to MSU30 broken up by #22 S.SterlinSimilar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
95.6%
Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass incomplete short left to #22 R.Green Jr. thrown to MSU22Similar
Q4 5:48
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
95.8%
#25 S.McDonald punt 41 yards to the FIU35 #3 C.Jnopierre return 0 yards to the FIU35 (#14 T.Anderson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 25TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:197% → 17%
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
93.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Pesansky pass incomplete deep right to #4 A.Perry thrown to MSU20Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+23
93.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Pesansky pass complete short middle to #3 C.Jnopierre caught at FIU48, for 23 yards to the MSU42 (#19 J.Brooks; #0 M.Neal), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+20
93.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Pesansky pass complete short right to #3 C.Jnopierre caught at MSU25, for 20 yards to the MSU22, out of bounds at MSU22, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MSU Personal Foul (#44 K.Young) 11 yard from MSU22 to MSU11, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
92.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Pesansky pass complete short right to #0 D.Payne caught at MSU11, for 2 yards to the MSU09 (#14 T.Anderson)Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+4
92.1%
Shotgun #16 J.Pesansky pass complete short middle to #18 J.Stone caught at MSU10, for 4 yards to the MSU05 (#0 M.Neal; #19 J.Brooks)Similar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+5
82.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Pesansky pass complete short right to #18 J.Stone caught at MSU00, for 5 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:29, 1ST DOWN #16 N.Grant kick attempt good (H: #6 T.Wilhoit, LS: #47 J.Wood)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 26END OF GAME
16 plays · 20 yds · 2:2692% → 96%
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
92.2%
Shotgun #40 C.Lair rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU17 (#0 J.Chaney Jr.)Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+4
92.0%
Shotgun #40 C.Lair rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU21 (#25 K.Simmons)Similar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
94.2%
#40 C.Lair rush right for 4 yards gain to the MSU30 (#2 B.Blades II)Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
94.3%
Shotgun #40 C.Lair rush left for 0 yards to the MSU30 fumbled by #40 C.Lair at MSU35 forced by #23 J.McGrew recovered by MSU #40 C.Lair at MSU30, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+5
94.6%
#12 J.Clark pass complete short right to #0 J.Robinson caught at MSU26, for 5 yards to the MSU26 (#2 B.Blades II), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+8
94.9%
Shotgun #12 J.Clark rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MSU38, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
95.1%
Kneel down by #12 J.Clark at MSU37 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 11
OWN 37
-1
94.8%
Kneel down by #12 J.Clark at MSU36 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 1:02
3RD & 12
OWN 36
-2
95.7%
Kneel down by #12 J.Clark at MSU34 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:47
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete short left to #0 J.Robinson caught at FIU00, for 8 yards to the FIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:47, 1ST DOWN #36 Y.Obeid kick attempt good (H: #25 S.McDonald, LS: #47 A.Kallas)
+17.1
TD · Q2 0:44
Alex Perry 25 Yd pass from Keyone Jenkins (Noah Grant Kick)
-16.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:48
#12 J.Clark pass complete short right to #0 J.Robinson caught at MSU26, for 5 yards to the MSU26 (#2 B.Blades II), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
+13.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com