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SHSU

Sam Houston 14 at Louisiana Tech 55

LT
2025 · Week 10 · Oct 31, 2025 · Joe Aillet Stadium
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Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadSHSU aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreSHSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:53 · (01:59) #35 C.Gerrand punt 39 yards to the LAT18 fair catch by #3 D.Latulas at LAT18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 33Home team on offense+4.3Pregame prior+30.3Score differential+1.5Blowout margin+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:33: Clay Thevenin 6 Yd Run (Drew Henderson Kick) — LT win probability +1.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:39: Clay Thevenin 50 Yd Run (Drew Henderson Kick) — LT win probability +4.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:44: (06:55) Shotgun #5 B.Baker rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SHU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:44 #43 D.Henderson kick attempt failed (H: #48 J.Chance, LS: #41 E.Burch) — LT win probability +2.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:23: (09:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 E.Green rush middle for 28 yards gain to the LAT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:23, 1ST DOWN #49 C.Pavon kick attempt good (H: #81 N.Ottomanelli, LS: #46 C.Whitington) — SHSU win probability +3.2 pts (now 4%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:53: (05:54) Shotgun #22 O.Wiggins rush left for 16 yards gain to the SHU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:53, 1ST DOWN #43 D.Henderson kick attempt good (H: #48 J.Chance, LS: #41 E.Burch) — LT win probability +2.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1SHSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 8:43SHSU 4th & 8 at SHSU 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:53SHSU 4th & 4 at SHSU 43, down 14
    Close callPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:59SHSU 4th & 9 at SHSU 49, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:39SHSU 4th & 5 at LT 14, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−2.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:12SHSU 4th & 1 at LT 2, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    1.9%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−1.9
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:56SHSU 4th & 2 at SHSU 36, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.2%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:24SHSU 4th & 3 at SHSU 32, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:29LT 4th & 6 at LT 33, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:13SHSU 4th & 18 at LT 23, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    -0.0%−0.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:13SHSU 4th & 1 at SHSU 48, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:21SHSU 4th & 15 at LT 34, down 34
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    47% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:32SHSU 4th & 13 at SHSU 22, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 7 of 8SHSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:48LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:33LT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:39LT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:44LT Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:23SHSU Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:53LT Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:25LT Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:13SHSU Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:13LT Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:08LT Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LTDrive 1TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 2:4487% → 87%
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
86.7%
(14:44) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short right to #18 M.Jackson caught at LAT22, for 6 yards to the LAT32 (#4 J.Scott; #7 E.Allen)Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+5
86.6%
(14:16) Shotgun #5 B.Baker rush middle for 5 yards gain to the LAT37 (#7 E.Allen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
86.5%
(13:52) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short right to #4 C.Thevenin caught at LAT36, for 2 yards to the LAT39 (#30 D.Ford)Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+15
86.4%
(13:27) Shotgun #4 C.Thevenin rush middle for 15 yards gain to the SHU46 (#3 T.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
86.4%
(13:04) Shotgun #4 C.Thevenin rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SHU43 (#17 C.Eaton; #4 J.Scott)Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+7
86.3%
(12:30) Shotgun #5 B.Baker rush middle for 7 yards gain to the SHU36 (#6 A.Fish; #0 A.Edwards Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
86.7%
Devin Gandy 36 Yd pass from Blake Baker (Drew Henderson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:5814% → 14%
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.5%
(11:48) Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass incomplete short left to #84 L.Deyon thrown to SHU40Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
86.4%
(11:41) Shotgun #10 H.Watson rush middle for 8 yards gain to the SHU33 (#6 T.Averhart; #22 J.Mayfield)Similar
Q1 10:44
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
86.3%
(11:02) Shotgun #10 H.Watson rush middle for 7 yards gain to the SHU40, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
86.1%
(10:21) Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass incomplete short middle to #2 C.Reed thrown to SHU50 broken up by #11 C.WoodsSimilar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
86.1%
(09:41) Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass complete short right to #2 C.Reed caught at SHU43, for 2 yards to the SHU42 (#11 C.Woods)Similar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
86.1%
(08:55) Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass incomplete short left thrown to SHU45 PENALTY SHU Holding declinedSimilar
Q1 8:43
4TH & 8
OWN 42
+24
86.2%
(08:43) #35 C.Gerrand punt 40 yards to the LAT18 #3 D.Latulas return 24 yards to the LAT42 (#86 T.Jewett)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 3TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 2:0386% → 88%
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
86.4%
(08:43) Shotgun #22 O.Wiggins rush middle for 8 yards gain to the LAT50 (#44 B.Henderson; #2 C.Powell)Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 2
50
+10
86.5%
(08:31) Shotgun #22 O.Wiggins rush middle for 10 yards gain to the SHU40 (#3 T.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+37
86.4%
(07:53) Shotgun #22 O.Wiggins rush left for 37 yards gain to the SHU03 (#7 E.Allen), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
86.4%
(07:08) Shotgun #22 O.Wiggins rush right for 3 yards loss to the SHU06 (#30 D.Ford; #9 J.Arnold)Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
88.2%
Clay Thevenin 6 Yd Run (Drew Henderson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 4PUNT
12 plays · 31 yds · 4:2513% → 13%
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
87.5%
(06:28) Shotgun #34 L.Brown rush right for 0 yards to the SHU12 (#11 C.Woods; #98 D.Rieman)Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+5
87.5%
PENALTY SHU False Start (#71 J.Dawn II) 5 yards from SHU12 to SHU07. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 15
OWN 7
+3
87.7%
(05:31) Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass complete deep middle to #6 G.O'Neill caught at SHU30, for 23 yards to the SHU30 (#8 J.Fields) PENALTY SHU Holding (#79 K.Dieterich) 3 yards from SHU07 to SHU04. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 18
OWN 4
+7
87.8%
(05:06) Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass complete short right to #2 C.Reed caught at SHU09, for 7 yards to the SHU11 (#11 C.Woods) PENALTY LAT Face Mask (#11 C.Woods) 15 yards from SHU11 to SHU26, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
87.4%
(04:42) Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass complete short right to #2 C.Reed caught at SHU30, for 8 yards to the SHU34 (#11 C.Woods; #8 J.Fields), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 2
OWN 34
0
87.2%
(03:57) Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass incomplete short left to #11 M.Phillips thrown to SHU41Similar
Q1 3:43
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+3
87.6%
(03:52) Shotgun #34 L.Brown rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SHU37 (#90 J.Madkins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
87.6%
(03:04) Shotgun #34 L.Brown rush middle for 7 yards gain to the SHU44 (#9 M.Mason)Similar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 3
OWN 44
0
87.1%
(02:34) Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass incomplete short middle to #7 Q.Humphreys thrown to SHU47 QB hurried by #22 J.MayfieldSimilar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 3
OWN 44
-1
87.1%
(02:18) Shotgun #10 H.Watson sacked for loss of 1 yard to the SHU43 (#98 D.Rieman) PENALTY SHU Holding declinedSimilar
Q1 1:53
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
87.5%
(01:59) #35 C.Gerrand punt 39 yards to the LAT18 fair catch by #3 D.Latulas at LAT18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 5TD
7 plays · 82 yds · 2:5488% → 93%
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
88.3%
(01:53) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short right to #16 M.Singleton Jr. caught at LAT13, for 8 yards to the LAT26 (#7 E.Allen; #8 C.Johnson)Similar
Q1 1:12
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+5
88.4%
(01:12) Shotgun #4 C.Thevenin rush right for 5 yards gain to the LAT31 (#0 A.Edwards Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
88.4%
(00:38) Shotgun #22 O.Wiggins rush middle for 6 yards gain to the LAT37 (#7 E.Allen)Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 4
OWN 37
-3
88.6%
(14:57) Shotgun #22 O.Wiggins rush left for 3 yards loss to the LAT34 (#33 Z.Lawton; #44 B.Henderson)Similar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+16
88.3%
(14:16) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short middle to #84 E.Finley caught at LAT45, for 16 yards to the LAT50 (#13 T.Bailey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
50
+50
92.6%
Clay Thevenin 50 Yd Run (Drew Henderson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 2:278% → 7%
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.2%
(13:39) Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass complete short right to #6 G.O'Neill caught at SHU30, for 5 yards to the SHU30 (#9 M.Mason)Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
92.2%
(13:19) Shotgun #10 H.Watson rush right for 5 yards gain to the SHU35, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
92.4%
(12:38) Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass incomplete short left to #5 L.Adkism thrown to SHU35Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+13
92.6%
(12:37) Shotgun #34 L.Brown rush right for 13 yards gain to the SHU48 (#8 J.Fields; #22 J.Mayfield), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
92.5%
(12:09) Shotgun #34 L.Brown rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SHU49 (#9 M.Mason; #96 Z.Nason)Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
92.8%
(11:22) Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass incomplete deep right to #7 Q.Humphreys thrown to LAT20 broken up by #3 K.CarterSimilar
Q2 11:12
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
92.9%
(11:12) Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass incomplete short middle to #5 L.Adkism thrown to LAT46 broken up by #96 Z.NasonSimilar
Q2 10:59
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
93.0%
(11:07) #35 C.Gerrand punt 41 yards to the LAT10 #3 D.Latulas return 21 yards to the LAT31 (#36 O.Henderson) PENALTY LAT Illegal Block in Back (#36 Z.Hayes) 5 yards from LAT10 to LAT05Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 7TD
8 plays · 95 yds · 4:0993% → 97%
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+9
93.0%
(10:54) Shotgun #22 O.Wiggins rush right for 9 yards gain to the LAT14 (#3 T.Harris), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 1
OWN 14
+42
93.8%
(10:23) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete deep middle to #1 D.Gandy caught at SHU44, for 42 yards to the SHU44, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
94.3%
(09:48) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short left to #16 M.Singleton Jr. caught at LAT50, for 5 yards to the SHU39 (#6 A.Fish; #13 T.Bailey)Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+7
94.4%
(09:15) Shotgun #5 B.Baker rush middle for 7 yards gain to the SHU32 (#95 S.Boyd), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
94.5%
(08:37) Shotgun #22 O.Wiggins rush right for 6 yards gain to the SHU26 (#3 T.Harris; #9 J.Arnold)Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+11
94.3%
(08:01) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short left to #2 T.Kukuk caught at SHU30, for 11 yards to the SHU15 (#0 A.Edwards Jr.; #6 A.Fish), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
94.6%
(07:28) Shotgun #22 O.Wiggins rush left for 14 yards gain to the SHU01 (#44 B.Henderson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.2%
(06:55) Shotgun #5 B.Baker rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SHU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:44 #43 D.Henderson kick attempt failed (H: #48 J.Chance, LS: #41 E.Burch)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 8DOWNS
8 plays · 61 yds · 1:483% → 2%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
97.3%
(06:43) Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass complete short middle to #6 G.O'Neill caught at SHU37, for 15 yards to the SHU40 (#8 J.Fields), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
97.2%
(06:12) Shotgun #10 H.Watson rush left for 9 yards gain to the SHU49 (#97 C.Davis)Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+32
97.1%
(05:56) Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass complete deep right to #2 C.Reed caught at LAT23, for 32 yards to the LAT19 (#11 C.Woods), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
97.7%
(05:19) Shotgun #34 L.Brown rush middle for 5 yards gain to the LAT14 (#2 J.Cobbs; #22 J.Mayfield)Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 5
OPP 14
0
97.8%
(04:53) Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass incomplete short right to #85 D.Burk thrown to LAT00 broken up by #14 J.McraeSimilar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 5
OPP 14
0
97.9%
(04:42) Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass incomplete short left to #80 T.Burns Jr. thrown to LAT00 broken up by #7 J.Shelby Jr.Similar
Q2 4:39
4TH & 5
OPP 14
0
97.8%
(04:43) Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass incomplete short right to #34 L.Brown thrown to LAT00, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 9INT
7 plays · 63 yds · 3:1498% → 99%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
97.9%
(04:33) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short right to #15 D.Pierro caught at LAT19, for 7 yards to the LAT21 (#17 C.Eaton; #20 D.Wilson)Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+6
97.8%
(03:55) Shotgun #4 C.Thevenin rush middle for 6 yards gain to the LAT27 (#0 A.Edwards Jr.; #44 B.Henderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
98.1%
(03:20) Shotgun #4 C.Thevenin rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LAT30 (#95 S.Boyd)Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+17
98.2%
(02:47) Shotgun #5 B.Baker rush middle for 17 yards gain to the LAT47 (#6 A.Fish), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
98.4%
(02:00) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short right to #16 M.Singleton Jr. caught at LAT48, for 10 yards to the SHU43 (#3 T.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+20
98.4%
(01:33) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short right to #18 M.Jackson caught at SHU27, for 20 yards to the SHU23 (#0 A.Edwards Jr.; #3 T.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-28
98.5%
(01:07) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass intercepted by #0 A.Edwards Jr. at SHU01 #0 A.Edwards Jr. return 28 yards to the SHU29 (#1 D.Gandy; #84 E.Finley)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 10END OF HALF
12 plays · 69 yds · 0:462% → 3%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
98.4%
(01:04) Shotgun #34 L.Brown rush middle for 11 yards gain to the SHU40 (#94 E.Oguns; #96 Z.Nason), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
98.4%
(00:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass complete short right to #7 Q.Humphreys caught at LAT50, for 11 yards to the LAT49, out of bounds at LAT49, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+38
98.3%
(00:47) Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass complete deep right to #7 Q.Humphreys caught at LAT23, for 38 yards to the LAT11 (#11 C.Woods), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
98.0%
(00:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass incomplete short right to #7 Q.Humphreys thrown to LAT00 broken up by #11 C.WoodsSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-9
98.0%
(00:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Watson sacked for loss of 9 yards to the LAT20 (#22 J.Mayfield)Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 19
OPP 20
+18
98.7%
(00:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass complete short middle to #6 G.O'Neill caught at LAT02, for 18 yards to the LAT02 (#6 J.Foster; #8 J.Fields)Similar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 1
OPP 2
0
97.5%
(00:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #34 L.Brown rush middle for 0 yards to the LAT02 (#96 Z.Nason; #9 M.Mason), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 11DOWNS
6 plays · 38 yds · 2:041% → 2%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+15
98.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass complete short middle to #2 C.Reed caught at SHU16, for 15 yards to the SHU28 (#8 J.Fields), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
98.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #34 L.Brown rush left for 1 yard gain to the SHU29 (#42 S.Leota)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
98.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass incomplete short left to #6 G.O'Neill thrown to SHU30Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+7
97.4%
(13:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass complete short middle to #6 G.O'Neill caught at SHU36, for 7 yards to the SHU36 (#8 J.Fields)Similar
Q3 12:56
4TH & 2
OWN 36
+15
97.8%
(13:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass incomplete short right to #2 C.Reed thrown to SHU50 broken up by #11 C.Woods, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12FUMBLE
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1699% → 99%
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
99.1%
PENALTY LAT UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#1 M.Richard) 15 yards from SHU36 to LAT49. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
99.1%
PENALTY LAT UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#16 M.Singleton Jr.) 15 yards from SHU36 to LAT49. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 25
OWN 49
+6
99.1%
#11 J.Mickens rush left for 6 yards gain to the SHU45 (#30 D.Ford)Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 19
OPP 45
+4
99.1%
#5 B.Baker pass complete short right to #4 C.Thevenin caught at SHU50, for 4 yards to the SHU41 (#7 E.Allen; #13 T.Bailey)Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 15
OPP 41
+8
99.2%
#4 C.Thevenin rush middle for 8 yards gain to the SHU33 fumbled by #4 C.Thevenin at SHU41 forced by #3 T.Harris recovered by SHU #3 T.Harris at SHU33, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 13TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 2:051% → 4%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
99.2%
(11:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #34 L.Brown rush right for 1 yard loss to the SHU32 (#97 C.Davis; #98 D.Rieman)Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+15
99.3%
(10:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Watson rush right for 15 yards gain to the SHU47, out of bounds at SHU47, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+25
99.3%
(10:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 E.Green rush right for 25 yards gain to the LAT28 (#8 J.Fields), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.3%
(09:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass incomplete deep left to #7 Q.Humphreys thrown to LAT00Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+28
96.0%
(09:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 E.Green rush middle for 28 yards gain to the LAT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:23, 1ST DOWN #49 C.Pavon kick attempt good (H: #81 N.Ottomanelli, LS: #46 C.Whitington)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:1397% → 100%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
97.1%
(09:14) #5 B.Baker pass complete short left to #11 J.Mickens caught at LAT20, for 0 yards to the LAT23 (#7 E.Allen)Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
97.1%
(08:43) #5 B.Baker pass incomplete short right to #18 M.Jackson thrown to LAT30Similar
Q3 8:34
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+23
97.1%
(08:40) #22 O.Wiggins rush left for 23 yards gain to the LAT46 (#20 D.Wilson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
97.2%
(08:06) #22 O.Wiggins rush left for 5 yards gain to the SHU49 (#8 C.Johnson)Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+6
97.2%
(07:43) #5 B.Baker pass complete short middle to #84 E.Finley caught at SHU45, for 6 yards to the SHU43 (#8 C.Johnson; #3 T.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+23
97.4%
(07:09) #5 B.Baker pass complete short right to #84 E.Finley caught at SHU31, for 23 yards to the SHU20 (#3 T.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
97.5%
(06:28) Shotgun #5 B.Baker rush middle for 4 yards gain to the SHU16 (#33 Z.Lawton)Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+16
99.6%
(05:54) Shotgun #22 O.Wiggins rush left for 16 yards gain to the SHU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:53, 1ST DOWN #43 D.Henderson kick attempt good (H: #48 J.Chance, LS: #41 E.Burch)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:150% → 0%
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.6%
(05:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass complete short right to #21 E.Green caught at SHU23, for 7 yards to the SHU32, out of bounds at SHU32Similar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
99.6%
(05:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 E.Green rush left for 0 yards to the SHU32 (#97 C.Davis; #42 S.Leota)Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
99.6%
(04:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass incomplete short right to #21 E.Green thrown to SHU35 QB hurried by #42 S.LeotaSimilar
Q3 4:24
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.7%
(04:26) #35 C.Gerrand punt 34 yards to the LAT34 fair catch by #3 D.Latulas at LAT34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16TD
3 plays · 66 yds · 0:49100% → 100%
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+26
99.7%
(04:21) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short left to #2 T.Kukuk caught at LAT28, for 26 yards to the SHU40 (#0 A.Edwards Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
99.7%
(03:57) Shotgun #4 C.Thevenin rush left for 15 yards gain to the SHU25 (#0 A.Edwards Jr.; #3 T.Harris), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
99.8%
(03:29) Shotgun #4 C.Thevenin rush middle for 25 yards gain to the SHU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:25, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY SHU Illegal Use Of Hands (#55 C.Adams) 10 yards from SHU00 to SHU03, 1ST DOWN #43 D.Henderson kick attempt good (H: #48 J.Chance, LS: #41 E.Burch)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 17TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
99.8%
(03:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 E.Green rush left for 80 yards gain to the LAT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:13, 1ST DOWN #49 C.Pavon kick attempt good (H: #81 N.Ottomanelli, LS: #46 C.Whitington)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 2:31100% → 100%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
99.7%
(03:03) Shotgun #4 C.Thevenin rush middle for 7 yards gain to the LAT26 (#5 J.Stanford)Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 3
OWN 26
0
99.7%
(02:35) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass incomplete short middle to #1 D.Gandy thrown to LAT37Similar
Q3 2:27
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+3
99.7%
(02:31) Shotgun #22 O.Wiggins rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LAT29 (#23 A.Sargent), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
99.8%
(01:59) Shotgun #22 O.Wiggins rush middle for 5 yards gain to the LAT34 (#5 J.Stanford; #9 J.Arnold)Similar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 5
OWN 34
0
99.8%
(01:26) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass incomplete short middle to #18 M.Jackson thrown to LAT45Similar
Q3 1:11
3RD & 5
OWN 34
-1
99.8%
(01:23) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short right to #4 C.Thevenin caught at LAT30, for 1 yard loss to the LAT33 (#8 C.Johnson)Similar
Q3 0:29
4TH & 6
OWN 33
+4
99.8%
(00:34) #48 J.Chance punt 51 yards to the SHU16 #80 T.Burns Jr. return 4 yards to the SHU20 (#35 C.Watson; #23 A.Jackson Jr.)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 19INT TD
13 plays · 57 yds · 4:160% → 0%
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.8%
(00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 E.Green rush left for 0 yards to the SHU20 (#9 M.Mason; #94 E.Oguns)Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass incomplete short left to #80 T.Burns Jr. thrown to SHU35 broken up by #4 K.FranklinSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass incomplete short right to #6 G.O'Neill thrown to SHU30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.9%
PENALTY SHU Delay Of Game (#10 H.Watson) 5 yards from SHU20 to SHU15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+25
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Watson rush middle for 25 yards gain to the SHU40, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+45
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 E.Green rush middle for 45 yards gain to the LAT15 (#6 T.Averhart; #2 J.Cobbs), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 E.Green rush middle for 1 yard loss to the LAT16 (#42 S.Leota; #92 L.Condry)Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+5
99.8%
PENALTY SHU False Start (#54 M.Joseph) 5 yards from LAT16 to LAT21. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 21
+3
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #34 L.Brown rush right for 3 yards gain to the LAT18 (#23 A.Jackson Jr.)Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 18
+5
99.8%
PENALTY SHU False Start (#54 M.Joseph) 5 yards from LAT18 to LAT23. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 18
OPP 23
0
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass incomplete short middle to #6 G.O'Neill thrown to LAT05Similar
Q4 11:13
4TH & 18
OPP 23
-85
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass intercepted by #8 J.Fields at LAT15 #8 J.Fields return 85 yards to the SHU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:13 #43 D.Henderson kick attempt good (H: #48 J.Chance, LS: #41 E.Burch)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 20DOWNS
16 plays · 41 yds · 5:520% → 0%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass complete short right to #2 C.Reed caught at SHU25, for 15 yards to the SHU40 (#0 S.Fongang) PENALTY SHU Targeting (#54 M.Joseph) 15 yards from SHU40 to SHU25Similar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 G.O'Neill rush right for 5 yards loss to the SHU20 (#0 S.Fongang)Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+6
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #34 L.Brown rush right for 6 yards gain to the SHU26 (#93 J.Bradford; #21 Z.Hill)Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+13
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Watson pass complete short right to #7 Q.Humphreys caught at SHU30, for 13 yards to the SHU39 (#20 K.McNeese), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Watson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the SHU45, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+3
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 E.Green rush left for 3 yards gain to the SHU48 (#9 M.Mason)Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 E.Green rush middle for 0 yards to the SHU48 (#98 D.Rieman; #91 C.Sims)Similar
Q4 11:13
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+12
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Mettauer pass complete short right to #11 M.Phillips caught at LAT48, for 12 yards to the LAT40, out of bounds at LAT40, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 E.Green rush right for 11 yards gain to the LAT29 (#20 K.McNeese), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Mettauer pass complete short left to #5 L.Adkism caught at LAT29, for 0 yards to the LAT29 (#18 J.Hampton)Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-5
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Mettauer pass incomplete short middle to #5 L.Adkism thrown to LAT20Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 15
OPP 34
0
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Mettauer pass incomplete deep right to #7 Q.Humphreys thrown to LAT00 broken up by #17 A.ButlerSimilar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+5
99.9%
PENALTY SHU Delay Of Game (#3 M.Mettauer) 5 yards from LAT29 to LAT34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 15
OPP 34
0
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Mettauer pass incomplete deep right to #7 Q.Humphreys thrown to LAT00 broken up by #17 A.ButlerSimilar
Q4 5:21
4TH & 15
OPP 34
0
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Mettauer pass incomplete short middle to #6 G.O'Neill thrown to LAT20, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21TD
1 play · 66 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+66
99.9%
Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush middle for 66 yards gain to the SHU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:08, 1ST DOWN #43 D.Henderson kick attempt good (H: #48 J.Chance, LS: #41 E.Burch)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:250% → 0%
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
100.0%
(05:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #34 L.Brown rush right for 4 yards loss to the SHU21 (#35 C.Watson; #39 J.Crowe)Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
100.0%
(04:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Mettauer pass incomplete short left to #9 J.Parker thrown to SHU15Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+1
100.0%
(04:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Mettauer pass complete short left to #9 J.Parker caught at SHU20, for 1 yard to the SHU22 (#23 A.Jackson Jr.; #14 J.Mcrae)Similar
Q4 3:32
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
100.0%
(03:36) #35 C.Gerrand punt 38 yards to the LAT40 #16 M.Singleton Jr. return 20 yards to the SHU40 (#35 C.Gerrand) PENALTY LAT Holding (#30 S.Simpson) 1 yard from LAT40 to LAT39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 23END OF GAME
6 plays · 32 yds · 2:32100% → 100%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
100.0%
(03:05) Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush right for 2 yards gain to the LAT41 (#8 C.Johnson)Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+18
100.0%
(02:45) Shotgun #25 A.Givens rush left for 18 yards gain to the SHU41 (#13 T.Bailey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
100.0%
(02:00) Shotgun #25 A.Givens rush middle for 5 yards gain to the SHU36 (#8 C.Johnson; #20 D.Wilson)Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+3
100.0%
(01:09) Shotgun #19 M.Welch rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SHU33 (#8 C.Johnson)Similar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+4
100.0%
(00:29) Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush middle for 4 yards gain to the SHU29 (#5 J.Stanford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:39
Clay Thevenin 50 Yd Run (Drew Henderson Kick)
+4.3
TD · Q3 9:23
(09:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 E.Green rush middle for 28 yards gain to the LAT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:23, 1ST DOWN #49 C.Pavon kick attempt good (H: #81 N.Ottomanelli, LS: #46 C.Whitington)
-3.2
TD · Q2 6:44
(06:55) Shotgun #5 B.Baker rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SHU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:44 #43 D.Henderson kick attempt failed (H: #48 J.Chance, LS: #41 E.Burch)
+2.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com