2025 · Week 8 · Oct 14, 2025 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
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Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadFIU aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreFIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:57 · Cole Maynard punt for 51 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 14:56: Noah Grant 37 yd FG GOOD — FIU win probability +1.5 pts (now 37%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:57: Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Jackson Verdugo for 8 yds for a TD (Noah Grant KICK) — FIU win probability +6.9 pts (now 51%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 2:57: Noah Grant 51 yd FG GOOD — FIU win probability +8.0 pts (now 65%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Jack Cassidy 55 yd FG GOOD — WKU win probability +3.4 pts (now 42%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:03: Kejon Owens run for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — FIU win probability +10.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7FIU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 12:37FIU 4th & 7 at WKU 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.3% before the snapGo for it25.2%−0.135% to convertField goalTheir call25.3%75% to makePunt24.9%−0.4average punt
- Q1 7:37FIU 4th & 7 at WKU 11, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.1% before the snapGo for it27.0%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call27.0%87% to makePunt26.2%−0.9average punt
- Q1 3:03WKU 4th & 4 at FIU 10, down 6Close callKicked a field goal · 70.7% before the snapGo for it70.6%44% to convertField goalTheir call70.5%−0.188% to makePunt68.0%−2.6average punt
- Q2 14:56FIU 4th & 4 at WKU 20, up 3Close callKicked a field goal · 30.6% before the snapGo for it30.6%47% to convertField goalTheir call30.6%−0.175% to makePunt28.3%−2.3average punt
- Q2 14:02WKU 4th & 4 at WKU 42, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.3% before the snapGo for it67.6%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.6%average punt
- Q2 9:45FIU 4th & 5 at WKU 35, up 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call37.5%42% to convertField goal37.1%−0.545% to makePunt36.7%−0.9average punt
- Q2 2:57FIU 4th & 27 at WKU 34, up 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.1% before the snapGo for it46.8%−3.07% to convertField goalTheir call49.8%47% to makePunt47.7%−2.1average punt
- Q2 1:42WKU 4th & 1 at WKU 25, down 16Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 41.5% before the snapGo for it42.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.8%−1.5average punt
- Q2 0:29FIU 4th & 11 at FIU 35, up 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.3% before the snapGo for it62.9%−3.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.1%average punt
- Q3 12:57WKU 4th & 3 at WKU 49, down 13Close callPunted · 43.5% before the snapGo for it44.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.1%−0.9average punt
- Q3 9:30FIU 4th & 8 at WKU 47, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snapGo for it66.6%−0.834% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.4%average punt
- Q3 7:35WKU 4th & 3 at WKU 31, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snapGo for it35.9%−0.452% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.3%average punt
- Q4 13:11WKU 4th & 21 at WKU 36, down 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snapGo for it5.1%−3.68% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.7%average punt
- Q4 13:11WKU 4th & 21 at WKU 36, down 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snapGo for it5.1%−3.68% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.7%average punt
- Q4 3:16FIU 4th & 4 at WKU 45, up 19Close callPunted · 98.6% before the snapGo for it98.6%48% to convertField goal98.2%−0.425% to makePuntTheir call98.4%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q2 7:57FIU Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.6%97% to makeGo for two46.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:03FIU Touchdown, up 19 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick88.7%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call88.5%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFIUDrive 1FG7 plays · 55 yds · 1:4829% → 29%
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
71.5%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Alex Perry for 16 yds to the FIU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+36
71.4%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Alex Perry for 36 yds to the WKU 23 for a 1ST down Western Kentucky Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 11
OPP 24
+4
71.1%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kejon Owens for 4 yds to the WKU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 2INT8 plays · 71 yds · 2:3871% → 71%
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+46
70.9%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Matthew Henry for 46 yds to the FIU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
71.1%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Noah Meyers for 2 yds to the FIU 10Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 4
OPP 6
0
70.7%
Maverick McIvor pass intercepted Mister Clark return for no gain to the FIU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 3FG6 plays · 87 yds · 1:4730% → 32%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 4FG11 plays · 55 yds · 4:2769% → 68%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
69.2%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Noah Meyers for 7 yds to the FIU 42Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+2
69.1%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Marvis Parrish for 2 yds to the FIU 40Similar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+9
68.5%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to La'Vell Wright for 9 yds to the FIU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 12
OPP 18
+3
68.2%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Lofton Howard for 3 yds to the FIU 15Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+5
67.4%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Quincy Burroughs for 5 yds to the FIU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 5FG10 plays · 41 yds · 2:5433% → 37%
Q1 1:51
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+34
66.9%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Alex Perry for 34 yds to the WKU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
65.3%
(01:44) No Huddle-Shotgun Jenkins,Keyone pass complete short right to Fournet,Ross caught at WKU29, for 6 yards to the WKU20 (Flowers,Dylan) PENALTY WKU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from WKU26 to WKU21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:48
2ND & 3
OPP 19
-5
64.8%
(00:48) No Huddle-Shotgun Jenkins,Keyone pass incomplete short right to Payne,Dallas thrown to WKU16 PENALTY FIU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Davis,Jaleel) 5 yards from WKU19 to WKU24. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:3964% → 63%
FIUDrive 7TD16 plays · 89 yds · 6:0036% → 51%
Q2 11:40
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+18
60.7%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to JoJo Stone for 18 yds to the FIU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
59.3%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Tyson Carter for 5 yds to the WKU 46Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
58.1%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Ross Fournet for 5 yds to the WKU 35Similar
Q2 9:45
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+15
58.5%
(09:45) No Huddle-Shotgun Jenkins,Keyone pass incomplete deep left to Perry,Alex thrown to WKU09 PENALTY WKU Pass Interference (Flowers,Dylan) 15 yards from WKU35 to WKU20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+9
56.0%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dallas Payne for 9 yds to the WKU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
48.8%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Jackson Verdugo for 8 yds for a TD (Noah Grant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 8INT5 plays · -5 yds · 1:2951% → 48%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-10
51.3%
(07:45) Shotgun McIvor,Maverick rush middle for 10 yards gain to the WKU36 (Courtney Jr.,Percy) PENALTY WKU Holding (Jackson,Marshall) 10 yards from WKU26 to WKU16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 20
OWN 16
+6
50.6%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 6 yds to the WKU 22Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 14
OWN 22
-1
49.9%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for a loss of 1 yard to the WKU 21Similar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 15
OWN 21
-8
47.9%
Maverick McIvor pass intercepted Jessiah McGrew return for 8 yds to the WKU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 9FG7 plays · 5 yds · 3:0854% → 65%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
46.4%
Western Kentucky Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Nazir Ward) to the WKU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
45.6%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kejon Owens for 3 yds to the WKU 14Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
44.9%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Jackson Verdugo for no gain to the WKU 14Similar
Q2 4:27
3RD & 7
OPP 14
-10
44.5%
(04:30) No Huddle-Shotgun Jenkins,Keyone rush left for 10 yards gain to the WKU04 (Flowers,Dylan; Jones,Elin) PENALTY FIU Holding (Buchanon,Jaheim) 10 yards from WKU14 to WKU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:07
3RD & 17
OPP 24
-10
43.8%
(04:09) No Huddle-Shotgun Pesansky,Joe rush right for 19 yards gain to the WKU05 (Ward,Nazir; Brackenridge,Anthony) PENALTY FIU Holding (Michel,Daniel) 10 yards from WKU24 to WKU34. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0340% → 38%
FIUDrive 11PUNT10 plays · 11 yds · 1:0668% → 70%
Q2 1:02
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+9
31.2%
Joe Pesansky pass complete to Dallas Payne for 9 yds to the FIU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-10
30.0%
(00:55) No Huddle-Shotgun Pesansky,Joe rush right for 1 yard gain to the FIU37 (Jones,Elin), out of bounds PENALTY FIU Holding (Michel,Daniel) 10 yards from FIU36 to FIU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 20
OWN 26
+9
30.6%
Joe Pesansky pass complete to Maguire Anderson for 9 yds to the FIU 35Similar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
29.9%
Trey Wilhoit punt for 34 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the WKU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12FG7 plays · 32 yds · 0:2537% → 42%
Q2 0:03
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+20
36.6%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Kelby Williams for 20 yds to the FIU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 24 yds · 1:5743% → 41%
FIUDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 33 yds · 3:1864% → 68%
WKUDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 1:3636% → 33%
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
36.1%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Cameron Flowers for 2 yds to the WKU 9Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 12
OWN 9
+5
35.0%
(08:58) Shotgun McIvor,Maverick pass incomplete short left to Williams,Kelby thrown to WKU16 broken up by Evans III,Victor PENALTY FIU Offside (Simmons,Kenton) 5 yards from WKU09 to WKU14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
33.2%
Cole Maynard punt for 44 yds, fair catch by C'Quan Jnopierre at the FIU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 16TD13 plays · 75 yds · 5:2172% → 93%
Q3 6:41
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
24.8%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Maguire Anderson for 4 yds to the FIU 31Similar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
24.5%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dallas Payne for 5 yds to the FIU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
21.1%
PENALTY FIU False Start (Fournet,Ross) 5 yards from WKU48 to FIU47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+14
20.3%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to JoJo Stone for 14 yds to the WKU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17PUNT10 plays · 11 yds · 3:4513% → 8%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-14
11.8%
Maverick McIvor sacked by Xion Chapman for a loss of 14 yards to the WKU 33 Maverick McIvor fumbled, recovered by WKU Marshall Jackson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 18
OWN 39
+3
8.1%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to La'Vell Wright for 3 yds to the WKU 36Similar
Q4 13:11
4TH & 21
OWN 36
0
7.9%
Cole Maynard punt for 49 yds, fair catch by C'Quan Jnopierre at the FIU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
4TH & 21
OWN 36
0
7.9%
Cole Maynard punt for 49 yds, fair catch by C'Quan Jnopierre at the FIU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 0 yds · 3:3095% → 97%
Q4 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+2
3.6%
Joe Pesansky pass complete to Maguire Anderson for 2 yds to the FIU 38Similar
Q4 9:23
3RD & 6
OWN 38
-15
3.3%
(09:24) No Huddle-Shotgun Jenkins,Keyone pass incomplete short right to Anderson,Maguire thrown to FIU35 PENALTY FIU Personal Foul (Payne,Dallas) 15 yards from FIU38 to FIU23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:17
3RD & 21
OWN 23
0
3.5%
Trey Wilhoit punt for 36 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the WKU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19INT7 plays · 41 yds · 2:146% → 6%
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
6.1%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Moussa Barry for 11 yds to the FIU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:52
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+5
6.0%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Cameron Flowers for 5 yds to the FIU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+17
5.9%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Noah Meyers for 17 yds to the FIU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 8
OPP 18
-31
6.1%
Maverick McIvor pass intercepted Jessiah McGrew return for 31 yds to the FIU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 20PUNT12 plays · 22 yds · 3:2697% → 99%
Q4 6:04
2ND & 6
OWN 37
-2
2.2%
Kejon Owens run for 8 yds to the FIU 45 Florida International Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ross Fournet) to the FIU 35Similar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+14
2.0%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Maguire Anderson for 14 yds to the FIU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-5
1.4%
PENALTY FIU False Start (Tripp Jr.,Antonio) 5 yards from WKU48 to FIU47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 9
50
+5
1.2%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Jackson Verdugo for 5 yds to the WKU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21END OF HALF9 plays · 72 yds · 2:181% → 1%
Q4 2:38
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+19
0.8%
Rodney Tisdale Jr. pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 19 yds to the WKU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
0.8%
Rodney Tisdale Jr. pass complete to George Hart III for no gain to the WKU 27Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+11
0.7%
Rodney Tisdale Jr. pass complete to Noah Meyers for 11 yds to the WKU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
0.7%
Rodney Tisdale Jr. pass complete to Noah Meyers for 16 yds to the FIU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+20
0.8%
Rodney Tisdale Jr. pass complete to Kelby Williams for 20 yds to the FIU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+2
0.8%
Rodney Tisdale Jr. pass complete to George Hart III for 2 yds to the FIU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:03
Kejon Owens run for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-10.4
FG · Q2 2:57
Noah Grant 51 yd FG GOOD
-8
TD · Q2 7:57
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Jackson Verdugo for 8 yds for a TD (Noah Grant KICK)
-6.9