ARDLINETry the model
FIU

Florida International 25 at Western Kentucky 6

WKU
2025 · Week 8 · Oct 15, 2025 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadFIU aheadconfidence bandkey play
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4KEY PLAYFGKEY PLAYFGKEY PLAYKEY PLAYTDTD
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
FIU · Drive 1FG · 7 plays · 55 yds
Q1 15:00
Jack Cassidy kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
71.8%
0.0
Q1 14:25
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Alex Perry for 16 yds to the FIU 41 for a 1ST down
69.0%
-2.8
Q1 14:23
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Alex Perry for 36 yds to the WKU 23 for a 1ST down Western Kentucky Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined for a 1ST down
67.8%
-1.2
Q1 14:03
Keyone Jenkins pass incomplete to Alex Perry
66.7%
-1.1
Q1 13:51
Keyone Jenkins sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the WKU 24
66.7%
0.0
Q1 13:06
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kejon Owens for 4 yds to the WKU 20
66.7%
0.0
Q1 12:37
Noah Grant 37 yd FG GOOD
63.2%
-3.5
WKU · Drive 2INT · 8 plays · 71 yds
Q1 12:30
Noah Grant kickoff for 60 yds , Cameron Flowers return for 18 yds to the WKU 23
64.4%
+1.2
Q1 12:19
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Matthew Henry for 46 yds to the FIU 31 for a 1ST down
69.0%
+4.6
Q1 12:00
K.D. Hutchinson run for 6 yds to the FIU 25
71.4%
+2.4
Q1 11:37
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Noah Meyers
71.4%
0.0
Q1 11:29
Maverick McIvor run for 13 yds to the FIU 12 for a 1ST down
71.2%
-0.2
Q1 10:51
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Noah Meyers for 2 yds to the FIU 10
71.4%
+0.2
Q1 10:09
Maverick McIvor run for 4 yds to the FIU 6
71.4%
0.0
Q1 9:41
Maverick McIvor pass intercepted Mister Clark return for no gain to the FIU 2
71.2%
-0.2
FIU · Drive 3FG · 6 plays · 87 yds
Q1 9:24
Kejon Owens run for 84 yds to the WKU 14 for a 1ST down
64.5%
-6.7
Q1 9:24
Timeout Western Kentucky, clock 09:24
60.1%
-4.4
Q1 9:00
Kejon Owens run for no gain to the WKU 14
59.7%
-0.4
Q1 8:20
Anthony Carrie run for 3 yds to the WKU 11
59.8%
0.0
Q1 7:42
Keyone Jenkins pass incomplete to Alex Perry
59.8%
0.0
Q1 7:37
Noah Grant 28 yd FG GOOD
53.3%
-6.5
WKU · Drive 4FG · 11 plays · 55 yds
Q1 7:37
Noah Grant kickoff for 62 yds
54.1%
+0.8
Q1 7:30
Marvis Parrish run for 16 yds to the FIU 49 for a 1ST down
61.6%
+7.5
Q1 6:55
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Noah Meyers for 7 yds to the FIU 42
63.4%
+1.8
Q1 6:29
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Marvis Parrish for 2 yds to the FIU 40
63.3%
0.0
Q1 5:57
Maverick McIvor pass complete to La'Vell Wright for 9 yds to the FIU 31 for a 1ST down
60.8%
-2.6
Q1 5:35
Marvis Parrish run for 15 yds to the FIU 16 for a 1ST down
61.0%
+0.2
Q1 4:59
La'Vell Wright run for a loss of 2 yards to the FIU 18
61.0%
0.0
Q1 4:59
Timeout Western Kentucky, clock 04:59
62.3%
+1.3
Q1 4:06
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Lofton Howard for 3 yds to the FIU 15
62.3%
0.0
Q1 3:33
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Quincy Burroughs for 5 yds to the FIU 10
62.0%
-0.3
Q1 3:03
John Cannon 28 yd FG GOOD
67.8%
+5.8
FIU · Drive 5FG · 10 plays · 41 yds
Q1 2:55
Jack Cassidy kickoff for 60 yds , C'Quan Jnopierre return for 34 yds to the FIU 39
65.8%
-2.0
Q1 2:50
Keyone Jenkins pass incomplete to Jackson Verdugo
60.1%
-5.7
Q1 2:43
Anthony Carrie run for 1 yd to the FIU 40
60.1%
0.0
Q1 1:51
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Alex Perry for 34 yds to the WKU 26 for a 1ST down
58.7%
-1.4
Q1 1:44
(01:44) No Huddle-Shotgun Jenkins,Keyone pass complete short right to Fournet,Ross caught at WKU29, for 6 yards to the WKU20 (Flowers,Dylan) PENALTY WKU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from WKU26 to WKU21. NO PLAY.
57.5%
-1.2
Q1 1:24
Anthony Carrie run for 2 yds to the WKU 19
57.5%
0.0
Q1 0:48
(00:48) No Huddle-Shotgun Jenkins,Keyone pass incomplete short right to Payne,Dallas thrown to WKU16 PENALTY FIU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Davis,Jaleel) 5 yards from WKU19 to WKU24. NO PLAY.
57.5%
0.0
Q1 0:43
Keyone Jenkins pass incomplete to Kejon Owens
57.3%
-0.2
Q1 0:00
Anthony Carrie run for 4 yds to the WKU 20
55.5%
-1.8
Q2 14:56
Noah Grant 37 yd FG GOOD
48.8%
-6.7
WKU · Drive 6PUNT · 5 plays · 6 yds
Q2 14:46
Noah Grant kickoff for 63 yds , Cameron Flowers return for 34 yds to the WKU 36
49.7%
+0.9
Q2 14:41
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Isaiah Myers
56.4%
+6.7
Q2 14:29
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Moussa Barry for 6 yds to the WKU 42
56.4%
0.0
Q2 14:08
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Cameron Flowers
56.8%
+0.4
Q2 14:02
Cole Maynard punt for 47 yds, fair catch by C'Quan Jnopierre at the FIU 11
56.8%
0.0
FIU · Drive 7TD · 16 plays · 89 yds
Q2 13:57
Kejon Owens run for 7 yds to the FIU 18
49.7%
-7.1
Q2 13:20
Kejon Owens run for 12 yds to the FIU 30 for a 1ST down
49.7%
0.0
Q2 12:33
Kejon Owens run for 1 yd to the FIU 31
49.7%
0.0
Q2 11:40
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to JoJo Stone for 18 yds to the FIU 49 for a 1ST down
48.8%
-0.9
Q2 11:35
Keyone Jenkins pass incomplete to Alex Perry
47.3%
-1.5
Q2 11:23
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Tyson Carter for 5 yds to the WKU 46
47.3%
0.0
Q2 10:48
Kejon Owens run for 6 yds to the WKU 40 for a 1ST down
47.3%
0.0
Q2 10:31
Keyone Jenkins pass incomplete to Tyson Carter
47.2%
-0.1
Q2 10:18
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Ross Fournet for 5 yds to the WKU 35
47.2%
0.0
Q2 9:50
Keyone Jenkins pass incomplete to Kejon Owens
47.2%
0.0
Q2 9:45
Keyone Jenkins pass incomplete to Alex Perry
48.0%
+0.8
Q2 9:45
(09:45) No Huddle-Shotgun Jenkins,Keyone pass incomplete deep left to Perry,Alex thrown to WKU09 PENALTY WKU Pass Interference (Flowers,Dylan) 15 yards from WKU35 to WKU20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
48.0%
0.0
Q2 9:38
Kejon Owens run for 3 yds to the WKU 17
47.2%
-0.8
Q2 9:02
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dallas Payne for 9 yds to the WKU 8 for a 1ST down
47.2%
0.0
Q2 8:37
Kejon Owens run for no gain to the WKU 8
47.2%
0.0
Q2 7:57
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Jackson Verdugo for 8 yds for a TD (Noah Grant KICK)
29.0%
-18.2
WKU · Drive 8INT · 5 plays · -5 yds
Q2 7:51
Noah Grant kickoff for 58 yds , Cameron Flowers return for 19 yds to the WKU 26
30.5%
+1.5
Q2 7:41
(07:45) Shotgun McIvor,Maverick rush middle for 10 yards gain to the WKU36 (Courtney Jr.,Percy) PENALTY WKU Holding (Jackson,Marshall) 10 yards from WKU26 to WKU16. NO PLAY.
33.8%
+3.2
Q2 7:15
Maverick McIvor pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 6 yds to the WKU 22
33.8%
0.0
Q2 6:39
Maverick McIvor pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for a loss of 1 yard to the WKU 21
33.8%
0.0
Q2 6:12
Maverick McIvor pass intercepted Jessiah McGrew return for 8 yds to the WKU 39
33.2%
-0.6
FIU · Drive 9FG · 7 plays · 5 yds
Q2 6:05
Western Kentucky Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Nazir Ward) to the WKU 17 for a 1ST down
28.4%
-4.8
Q2 5:42
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kejon Owens for 3 yds to the WKU 14
28.4%
0.0
Q2 5:00
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Jackson Verdugo for no gain to the WKU 14
28.4%
0.0
Q2 4:27
(04:30) No Huddle-Shotgun Jenkins,Keyone rush left for 10 yards gain to the WKU04 (Flowers,Dylan; Jones,Elin) PENALTY FIU Holding (Buchanon,Jaheim) 10 yards from WKU14 to WKU24. NO PLAY.
28.4%
0.0
Q2 4:07
(04:09) No Huddle-Shotgun Pesansky,Joe rush right for 19 yards gain to the WKU05 (Ward,Nazir; Brackenridge,Anthony) PENALTY FIU Holding (Michel,Daniel) 10 yards from WKU24 to WKU34. NO PLAY.
27.2%
-1.2
Q2 3:22
Joe Pesansky run for no gain to the WKU 34
27.2%
0.0
Q2 2:57
Noah Grant 51 yd FG GOOD
24.6%
-2.6
WKU · Drive 10PUNT · 5 plays · 9 yds
Q2 2:52
Noah Grant kickoff for 62 yds , Cameron Flowers return for 13 yds to the WKU 16
24.9%
+0.3
Q2 2:45
La'Vell Wright run for no gain to the WKU 16
27.8%
+2.9
Q2 2:18
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Quincy Burroughs for 6 yds to the WKU 22
27.5%
-0.2
Q2 1:56
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Marvis Parrish for 3 yds to the WKU 25
27.4%
-0.1
Q2 1:42
Cole Maynard punt for 51 yds
27.4%
0.0
FIU · Drive 11PUNT · 10 plays · 11 yds
Q2 1:35
Devonte Lyons run for 3 yds to the FIU 27
24.3%
-3.2
Q2 1:08
Joe Pesansky run for no gain to the FIU 27
24.3%
0.0
Q2 1:08
Timeout Western Kentucky, clock 01:08
24.3%
0.0
Q2 1:02
Joe Pesansky pass complete to Dallas Payne for 9 yds to the FIU 36 for a 1ST down
24.3%
0.0
Q2 0:56
Joe Pesansky pass incomplete to Ross Fournet
24.3%
0.0
Q2 0:50
(00:55) No Huddle-Shotgun Pesansky,Joe rush right for 1 yard gain to the FIU37 (Jones,Elin), out of bounds PENALTY FIU Holding (Michel,Daniel) 10 yards from FIU36 to FIU26. NO PLAY.
23.0%
-1.3
Q2 0:40
Joe Pesansky pass complete to Maguire Anderson for 9 yds to the FIU 35
23.0%
0.0
Q2 0:40
Timeout Florida International, clock 00:40
22.6%
-0.4
Q2 0:35
Joe Pesansky pass incomplete to Alex Perry
22.6%
0.0
Q2 0:29
Trey Wilhoit punt for 34 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the WKU 31
22.6%
0.0
WKU · Drive 12FG · 7 plays · 32 yds
Q2 0:25
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Matthew Henry
26.0%
+3.4
Q2 0:20
George Hart III run for 12 yds to the WKU 43 for a 1ST down
26.0%
0.0
Q2 0:18
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete
26.7%
+0.6
Q2 0:12
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to George Hart III
26.7%
0.0
Q2 0:03
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Kelby Williams for 20 yds to the FIU 37 for a 1ST down
26.7%
0.0
Q2 0:03
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete
28.9%
+2.3
Q2 0:00
Jack Cassidy 55 yd FG GOOD
34.4%
+5.5
WKU · Drive 13PUNT · 7 plays · 24 yds
Q3 15:00
Noah Grant kickoff for 64 yds
28.9%
-5.6
Q3 14:54
Marvis Parrish run for 5 yds to the WKU 30
31.3%
+2.4
Q3 14:25
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Matthew Henry for 12 yds to the WKU 42 for a 1ST down
31.3%
0.0
Q3 14:07
Marvis Parrish run for 2 yds to the WKU 44
31.4%
+0.1
Q3 13:37
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Marvis Parrish for 5 yds to the WKU 49
31.0%
-0.4
Q3 13:05
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to K.D. Hutchinson
30.9%
-0.1
Q3 12:57
Cole Maynard punt for 51 yds for a touchback
30.9%
0.0
FIU · Drive 14PUNT · 8 plays · 33 yds
Q3 12:48
Kejon Owens run for 5 yds to the FIU 25
27.1%
-3.7
Q3 12:20
Kejon Owens run for 14 yds to the FIU 39 for a 1ST down
27.1%
0.0
Q3 11:38
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Ross Fournet for 4 yds to the FIU 43
26.1%
-1.1
Q3 11:07
Kejon Owens run for 8 yds to the WKU 49 for a 1ST down
25.9%
-0.2
Q3 10:49
Keyone Jenkins pass incomplete to Jackson Verdugo
25.9%
0.0
Q3 10:38
Keyone Jenkins run for 2 yds to the WKU 47
25.9%
0.0
Q3 10:09
Kejon Owens run for no gain to the WKU 47
25.9%
0.0
Q3 9:30
Trey Wilhoit punt for 36 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the WKU 11
26.0%
+0.1
WKU · Drive 15PUNT · 7 plays · 20 yds
Q3 9:11
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Cameron Flowers for 2 yds to the WKU 9
28.1%
+2.1
Q3 8:58
(08:58) Shotgun McIvor,Maverick pass incomplete short left to Williams,Kelby thrown to WKU16 broken up by Evans III,Victor PENALTY FIU Offside (Simmons,Kenton) 5 yards from WKU09 to WKU14. NO PLAY.
28.1%
0.0
Q3 8:52
Marvis Parrish run for 10 yds to the WKU 24 for a 1ST down
28.1%
0.0
Q3 8:22
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Kelby Williams
28.0%
-0.1
Q3 8:17
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Cameron Flowers
28.0%
0.0
Q3 8:06
Maverick McIvor run for 7 yds to the WKU 31
28.0%
0.0
Q3 7:35
Cole Maynard punt for 44 yds, fair catch by C'Quan Jnopierre at the FIU 25
28.0%
0.0
FIU · Drive 16TD · 13 plays · 75 yds
Q3 7:24
Kejon Owens run for 2 yds to the FIU 27
25.8%
-2.3
Q3 6:41
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Maguire Anderson for 4 yds to the FIU 31
25.3%
-0.4
Q3 6:01
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dallas Payne for 5 yds to the FIU 36 for a 1ST down
24.9%
-0.4
Q3 5:40
Anthony Carrie run for no gain to the FIU 36
24.7%
-0.2
Q3 5:08
Anthony Carrie run for 16 yds to the WKU 48 for a 1ST down
20.9%
-3.8
Q3 4:55
PENALTY FIU False Start (Fournet,Ross) 5 yards from WKU48 to FIU47. NO PLAY.
19.9%
-1.0
Q3 4:35
Anthony Carrie run for 14 yds to the WKU 39
19.9%
0.0
Q3 4:11
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to JoJo Stone for 14 yds to the WKU 25 for a 1ST down
19.5%
-0.4
Q3 3:39
Anthony Carrie run for 1 yd to the WKU 24
19.2%
-0.4
Q3 3:03
Kejon Owens run for 9 yds to the WKU 15 for a 1ST down
19.2%
0.0
Q3 2:27
JoJo Stone pass incomplete to Keyone Jenkins
19.5%
+0.3
Q3 2:20
Kejon Owens run for 9 yds to the WKU 6
19.5%
0.0
Q3 2:03
Kejon Owens run for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
11.3%
-8.2
WKU · Drive 17PUNT · 10 plays · 11 yds
Q3 2:03
Noah Grant kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
11.3%
0.0
Q3 1:56
Marvis Parrish run for 11 yds to the WKU 36 for a 1ST down
12.6%
+1.3
Q3 1:23
Marvis Parrish run for 7 yds to the WKU 43
12.2%
-0.4
Q3 0:58
Marvis Parrish run for 2 yds to the WKU 45
12.2%
0.0
Q3 0:00
Maverick McIvor run for 2 yds to the WKU 47 for a 1ST down
12.0%
-0.2
Q4 14:50
Maverick McIvor sacked by Xion Chapman for a loss of 14 yards to the WKU 33 Maverick McIvor fumbled, recovered by WKU Marshall Jackson , return for 0 yards
11.8%
-0.3
Q4 14:07
La'Vell Wright run for 6 yds to the WKU 39
11.7%
-0.1
Q4 13:23
Maverick McIvor pass complete to La'Vell Wright for 3 yds to the WKU 36
11.7%
0.0
Q4 13:11
Cole Maynard punt for 49 yds, fair catch by C'Quan Jnopierre at the FIU 15 for a 1ST down
11.7%
0.0
Q4 13:11
Cole Maynard punt for 49 yds, fair catch by C'Quan Jnopierre at the FIU 23 for a 1ST down
11.7%
0.0
FIU · Drive 18PUNT · 7 plays · 0 yds
Q4 12:47
Anthony Carrie run for 1 yd to the FIU 24
11.1%
-0.6
Q4 12:15
Anthony Carrie run for 2 yds to the FIU 26
11.1%
0.0
Q4 11:29
Kejon Owens run for 8 yds to the FIU 34 for a 1ST down
11.1%
0.0
Q4 10:42
Kejon Owens run for 2 yds to the FIU 36
11.1%
0.0
Q4 10:00
Joe Pesansky pass complete to Maguire Anderson for 2 yds to the FIU 38
11.0%
-0.1
Q4 9:23
(09:24) No Huddle-Shotgun Jenkins,Keyone pass incomplete short right to Anderson,Maguire thrown to FIU35 PENALTY FIU Personal Foul (Payne,Dallas) 15 yards from FIU38 to FIU23. NO PLAY.
10.3%
-0.7
Q4 9:17
Trey Wilhoit punt for 36 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the WKU 41
10.3%
0.0
WKU · Drive 19INT · 7 plays · 41 yds
Q4 9:08
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Moussa Barry for 11 yds to the FIU 48 for a 1ST down
11.7%
+1.4
Q4 8:50
Marvis Parrish run for 6 yds to the FIU 42
11.7%
0.0
Q4 8:25
Maverick McIvor run for no gain to the FIU 42
11.9%
+0.2
Q4 7:52
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Cameron Flowers for 5 yds to the FIU 37 for a 1ST down
11.8%
-0.1
Q4 7:37
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Noah Meyers for 17 yds to the FIU 20 for a 1ST down
11.8%
0.0
Q4 7:22
George Hart III run for 2 yds to the FIU 18
12.2%
+0.4
Q4 6:54
Maverick McIvor pass intercepted Jessiah McGrew return for 31 yds to the FIU 33
12.2%
0.0
FIU · Drive 20PUNT · 12 plays · 22 yds
Q4 6:42
Kejon Owens run for 4 yds to the FIU 37
10.2%
-2.0
Q4 6:04
Kejon Owens run for 8 yds to the FIU 45 Florida International Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ross Fournet) to the FIU 35
10.1%
-0.1
Q4 5:31
Kejon Owens run for no gain to the FIU 35
10.1%
0.0
Q4 5:31
Timeout Western Kentucky, clock 05:31
9.1%
-1.0
Q4 5:25
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Maguire Anderson for 14 yds to the FIU 49 for a 1ST down
9.1%
0.0
Q4 4:39
Ross Fournet run for 3 yds to the WKU 48
9.0%
-0.1
Q4 4:03
PENALTY FIU False Start (Tripp Jr.,Antonio) 5 yards from WKU48 to FIU47. NO PLAY.
9.0%
0.0
Q4 3:33
Timeout Western Kentucky, clock 03:33
9.0%
0.0
Q4 3:31
Anthony Carrie run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line
9.0%
0.0
Q4 3:25
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Jackson Verdugo for 5 yds to the WKU 45
9.0%
0.0
Q4 3:25
Timeout Western Kentucky, clock 03:25
9.0%
0.0
Q4 3:16
Trey Wilhoit punt for 38 yds
9.0%
0.0
WKU · Drive 21END OF HALF · 9 plays · 72 yds
Q4 3:04
George Hart III run for 1 yd to the WKU 8
11.1%
+2.1
Q4 2:38
Rodney Tisdale Jr. pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 19 yds to the WKU 27 for a 1ST down
11.1%
0.0
Q4 2:20
Rodney Tisdale Jr. pass incomplete to K.D. Hutchinson
11.1%
0.0
Q4 2:11
Rodney Tisdale Jr. pass complete to George Hart III for no gain to the WKU 27
11.1%
0.0
Q4 1:54
Rodney Tisdale Jr. pass complete to Noah Meyers for 11 yds to the WKU 38 for a 1ST down
10.8%
-0.3
Q4 1:34
Rodney Tisdale Jr. pass complete to Noah Meyers for 16 yds to the FIU 46 for a 1ST down
10.8%
0.0
Q4 1:24
Rodney Tisdale Jr. pass complete to Kelby Williams for 20 yds to the FIU 26 for a 1ST down
10.8%
0.0
Q4 1:10
Rodney Tisdale Jr. run for 5 yds to the FIU 21
11.4%
+0.6
Q4 0:46
Rodney Tisdale Jr. pass complete to George Hart III for 2 yds to the FIU 23
11.4%
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:57
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Jackson Verdugo for 8 yds for a TD (Noah Grant KICK)
-18.2
TD · Q3 2:03
Kejon Owens run for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-8.2
KEY PLAY · Q1 7:30
Marvis Parrish run for 16 yds to the FIU 49 for a 1ST down
+7.5
YardLine · model v2Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com