2025 · Week 7 · Oct 9, 2025 · Fifth Third Stadium
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Win probability · KENN
modelKENN aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playKENN scoreLT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:40 · John Hoyet Chance punt for 42 yds , Gabriel Benyard returns for 4 yds to the KENN 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:03: Dexter Williams II pass complete to Clayton Coppock for 6 yds for a TD (Britton Williams KICK) — KENN win probability +8.7 pts (now 44%) (top driver: KENN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:15: Gabriel Benyard run for 9 yds for a TD (Britton Williams KICK) — KENN win probability +17.0 pts (now 54%) (top driver: KENN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:19: Dexter Williams II pass complete to Jordan Jackson for 29 yds for a TD (Britton Williams KICK) — KENN win probability +13.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: KENN has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 7:12: Coleman Bennett run for a loss of 1 yard to the KENN 41 — KENN win probability +6.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: KENN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:32: Dexter Williams II pass complete to Lyndon Ravare for 7 yds for a TD (Britton Williams KICK) — KENN win probability +5.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: KENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KENN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6LT made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 13:08KENN 4th & 3 at KENN 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snapGo for it39.4%−<0.151% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.4%average punt
- Q1 5:52KENN 4th & 4 at KENN 12, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snapGo for it38.0%−0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.1%average punt
- Q1 4:51LT 4th & 8 at LT 40, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.7% before the snapGo for it61.6%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.9%average punt
- Q1 3:04KENN 4th & 13 at KENN 41, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snapGo for it37.3%−1.020% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.3%average punt
- Q2 14:45LT 4th & 10 at KENN 44, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snapGo for it62.5%−0.330% to convertField goal62.1%−0.727% to makePuntTheir call62.7%average punt
- Q2 3:40LT 4th & 11 at LT 28, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snapGo for it38.8%−1.825% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.6%average punt
- Q2 1:52KENN 4th & 5 at KENN 39, up 7Close callPunted · 58.7% before the snapGo for it58.1%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.9%−0.2average punt
- Q2 0:42LT 4th & 14 at LT 16, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snapGo for it33.7%−3.917% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.6%average punt
- Q2 0:00KENN 4th & 7 at LT 29, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.4% before the snapGo for it60.4%−0.137% to convertField goalTheir call60.5%58% to makePunt54.8%−5.7average punt
- Q3 11:44LT 4th & 14 at LT 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snapGo for it33.3%−3.817% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.1%average punt
- Q3 7:19LT 4th & 2 at KENN 39, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call21.8%57% to convertField goal19.0%−2.836% to makePunt19.2%−2.6average punt
- Q3 6:14KENN 4th & 16 at KENN 36, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snapGo for it80.9%−3.515% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.4%average punt
- Q4 11:50LT 4th & 2 at LT 20, down 21Close callPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%−0.2average punt
- Q4 0:26LT 4th & 1 at KENN 1, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%59% to convertField goal0.1%−0.194% to makePunt0.0%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KENN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5LT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 7:12LT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.4%97% to makeGo for two60.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:03KENN Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call43.3%97% to makeGo for two43.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:15KENN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call55.1%97% to makeGo for two55.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:19KENN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.9%97% to makeGo for two79.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:32KENN Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:45KENN Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKENNDrive 1PUNT7 plays · -3 yds · 1:5232% → 32%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-4
31.8%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Gabriel Benyard for a loss of 4 yards to the KENN 16Similar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+5
32.2%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Gerard Bullock Jr. for 5 yds to the KENN 27Similar
Q1 13:13
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-5
32.3%
Kennesaw State Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the KENN 22Similar
Q1 13:08
4TH & 3
OWN 22
0
32.4%
Joshua Huiet punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Dedrick Latulas at the LT 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2TD14 plays · 70 yds · 5:4868% → 69%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
32.9%
Blake Baker pass complete to Marques Singleton Jr. for 2 yds to the LT 44Similar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+17
33.3%
Blake Baker pass complete to Clay Thevenin for 17 yds to the KENN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+3
33.5%
Blake Baker pass complete to Omiri Wiggins for 3 yds to the KENN 24Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 0
OPP 2
+1
33.5%
Kukuk, Trey rush for 1 yard to the KENN1, PENALTY KENN neutral zone infraction 1 yards to the KENN1, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5832% → 32%
LTDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5568% → 68%
Q1 4:51
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
32.3%
John Hoyet Chance punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KENN 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 36 yds · 1:4032% → 32%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+12
32.4%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Preston Clemmer for 12 yds to the KENN 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
32.5%
Williams II, Dexter pass incomplete, PENALTY LATECH roughing passer 15 yards to the KENN32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENN.Similar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
33.3%
Dexter Williams II sacked by Zheric Hill for a loss of 5 yards to the KENN 39Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 15
OWN 39
+2
31.8%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Gabriel Benyard for 2 yds to the KENN 41Similar
Q1 3:04
4TH & 13
OWN 41
0
31.5%
Joshua Huiet punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Dedrick Latulas at the LT 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6PUNT9 plays · 36 yds · 3:0968% → 69%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
32.0%
Blake Baker pass complete to Devin Gandy for 15 yds to the LT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:58
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+8
30.8%
Blake Baker pass complete to Omiri Wiggins for 8 yds to the KENN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
31.4%
John Hoyet Chance punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Gabriel Benyard at the KENN 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 7TD15 plays · 92 yds · 6:1732% → 44%
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
31.5%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Lyndon Ravare for 7 yds to the KENN 15Similar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+22
31.1%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Christian Moss for 22 yds to the KENN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+8
33.6%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Clayton Coppock for 8 yds to the LT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+5
34.9%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Clayton Coppock for 5 yds to the LT 25Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+13
33.7%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Gerard Bullock Jr. for 13 yds to the LT 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+6
43.5%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Clayton Coppock for 6 yds for a TD (Britton Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8INT6 plays · 17 yds · 1:2761% → 63%
Q2 7:07
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
39.0%
Trey Kukuk pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 11 yds to the LT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-20
37.3%
Trey Kukuk pass intercepted Kody Jones return for 29 yds to the KENN 29 Louisiana Tech Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (-9 Yards) to the LT 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 9TD1 play · 9 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 10 yds · 2:2049% → 45%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
51.1%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Marques Singleton Jr. for 7 yds to the LT 25Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 4
OWN 35
-7
51.7%
Evan Bullock sacked by Roderick Daniels for a loss of 7 yards to the LT 28Similar
Q2 3:40
4TH & 11
OWN 28
+4
55.0%
John Hoyet Chance punt for 42 yds , Gabriel Benyard returns for 4 yds to the KENN 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4154% → 54%
LTDrive 12PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 1:0446% → 42%
KENNDrive 13DOWNS8 plays · 28 yds · 0:3359% → 57%
LTDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 8 yds · 3:0043% → 38%
KENNDrive 15TD5 plays · 59 yds · 1:5264% → 80%
Q3 10:55
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+11
62.7%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Clayton Coppock for 11 yds to the LT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+19
66.7%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Lyndon Ravare for 19 yds to the LT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
79.6%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Jordan Jackson for 29 yds for a TD (Britton Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16DOWNS6 plays · 33 yds · 1:4924% → 24%
KENNDrive 17PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:5883% → 81%
Q3 6:20
4TH & 11
OWN 41
-5
81.5%
Huiet, Joshua punt 41 yards to the LATECH18, Latulas, Dedrick return -2 yards to the LATECH16, PENALTY KENN illegal formation 5 yards to the KENN36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:14
4TH & 16
OWN 36
0
81.4%
Joshua Huiet punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Dedrick Latulas at the LT 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18INT9 plays · 66 yds · 2:3621% → 20%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+21
79.1%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Devin Gandy for 21 yds to the LT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+15
77.9%
Kennesaw State Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the KENN 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
78.6%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 10 yds to the KENN 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
78.8%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Fred Robertson for 3 yds to the KENN 7Similar
Q3 3:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
80.5%
Evan Bullock pass intercepted, touchback. Antonio Stevens return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 19TD10 plays · 80 yds · 4:2686% → 98%
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
85.9%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Gabriel Benyard for 17 yds to the KENN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
88.6%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Gabriel Benyard for 3 yds to the KENN 40Similar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
90.5%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Christian Moss for 10 yds to the LT 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+7
91.1%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Coleman Bennett for 7 yds to the LT 14Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+5
91.2%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Lyndon Ravare for 5 yds to the LT 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
97.8%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Lyndon Ravare for 7 yds for a TD (Britton Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 20PUNT7 plays · -5 yds · 1:422% → 2%
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-13
97.8%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-13 Yards) to the LT 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 21TD11 plays · 87 yds · 6:4399% → 100%
LTDrive 22DOWNS18 plays · 85 yds · 3:540% → 0%
Q4 3:59
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+9
99.9%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Eli Finley for 9 yds to the LT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+15
99.9%
Omiri Wiggins run for no gain to the KENN 42 for a 1ST down Kennesaw State Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the KENN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+8
99.9%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Clay Thevenin for 8 yds to the KENN 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
99.9%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Devin Gandy for 9 yds to the KENN 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 23END OF GAME1 play · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:15
Gabriel Benyard run for 9 yds for a TD (Britton Williams KICK)
+17
TD · Q3 9:19
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Jordan Jackson for 29 yds for a TD (Britton Williams KICK)
+13
TD · Q2 8:03
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Clayton Coppock for 6 yds for a TD (Britton Williams KICK)
+8.7