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MOST

Missouri State 22 at Middle Tennessee 20

MTSU
2025 · Week 7 · Oct 8, 2025 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
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Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadMOST aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreMOST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:53 · Ashton Logan punt for 36 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Defense timeoutsOffense timeoutsHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remainingGarbage-time factor
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 21Defense timeouts−3.7Offense timeouts−4.4Home team on offense+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Time remaining−0.6Garbage-time factor+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:27: Deuce Bailey 5 Yd Run (Yousef Obeid PAT failed) — MOST win probability +7.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  2. TD · Q2 10:06: Cam'ron Lacy 52 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick) — MTSU win probability +6.9 pts (now 34%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  3. TD · Q2 5:29: Ronnel Johnson 20 Yd pass from Deuce Bailey (Yousef Obeid Kick) — MOST win probability +10.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Jacob Hathaway 40 Yd Field Goal — MTSU win probability +5.9 pts (now 18%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · Q4 9:12: Cam'ron Lacy 10 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick) — MTSU win probability +30.0 pts (now 45%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7MOST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 10:42MTSU 4th & 9 at MOST 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    44.9%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:43MOST 4th & 14 at MOST 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%−0.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:53MTSU 4th & 2 at MTSU 30, up 3
    Close callPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 3:53MTSU 4th & 5 at MTSU 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:05MOST 4th & 5 at MTSU 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.5%
    72% to make
    Punt
    52.0%−5.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:33MOST 4th & 6 at MTSU 8, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    48.0%−8.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:27MTSU 4th & 2 at MOST 38, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    37.9%−3.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    37.9%−3.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:30MOST 4th & 3 at MOST 45, up 6
    Close callPunted · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:02MTSU 4th & 10 at MTSU 31, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−3.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:14MOST 4th & 1 at midfield, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    65.2%−3.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:56MTSU 4th & 4 at MOST 43, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    35.5%−4.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    37.2%−2.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:14MOST 4th & 19 at MOST 33, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%−6.8
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:19MOST 4th & 7 at MTSU 12, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−2.7
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.9%
    86% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−9.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:03MTSU 4th & 11 at MOST 31, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    94.7%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MOST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 11:27MOST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    55.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:06MTSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:29MOST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:12MTSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.0%−1.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1FG
10 plays · 38 yds · 4:1848% → 44%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
48.0%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 12 yds to the MTSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
47.6%
Jekail Middlebrook run for no gain to the MTSU 47 Middle Tennessee Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the MTSU 37Similar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+4
47.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to AJ Jones for 4 yds to the MTSU 41Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 16
OWN 41
+15
46.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Cam'ron Lacy for 15 yds to the MOST 44Similar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+16
46.0%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 16 yds to the MOST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
45.8%
Jekail Middlebrook run for no gain to the MOST 28Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
45.3%
Jekail Middlebrook run for no gain to the MOST 28Similar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+1
44.5%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 1 yd to the MOST 27Similar
Q1 10:42
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+45
44.3%
Jacob Hathaway 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:4956% → 56%
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
43.9%
Shomari Lawrence run for 10 yds to the MOST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-9
43.4%
Deuce Bailey sacked by Reggie Johnson for a loss of 9 yards to the MOST 26Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 19
OWN 26
+5
43.4%
Shomari Lawrence run for 5 yds to the MOST 31Similar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 14
OWN 31
0
43.8%
Deuce Bailey pass incomplete to Ramone Green Jr.Similar
Q1 8:43
4TH & 14
OWN 31
0
43.8%
Stewart McDonald punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3Uncategorized
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4243% → 41%
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
42.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Hunter Tipton for no gain to the MTSU 22 Middle Tennessee Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the MTSU 17Similar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+2
42.5%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 2 yds to the MTSU 19Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 13
OWN 19
+11
41.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Hunter Tipton for 11 yds to the MTSU 30Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 2
OWN 30
0
41.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Cam'ron Lacy, broken up by Ryan WilliamsSimilar
Q1 6:53
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
40.6%
Ashton Logan punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4FUMBLE
3 plays · 6 yds · 1:1035% → 34%
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
34.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jekail Middlebrook for 6 yds to the MTSU 37Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 4
OWN 37
0
35.4%
Jekail Middlebrook run for no gain to the MTSU 37Similar
Q2 12:23
3RD & 4
OWN 37
-13
34.1%
run for a loss of 13 yards to the MTSU 24 fumbled, recovered by MOST Jalen BrooksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 5TD
3 plays · 24 yds · 0:5066% → 73%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
34.5%
Deuce Bailey pass incomplete to Dash LukeSimilar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+19
34.6%
Deuce Bailey pass complete to Dash Luke for 19 yds to the MTSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
27.4%
Deuce Bailey 5 Yd Run (Yousef Obeid PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6TD
4 plays · 82 yds · 1:1127% → 34%
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+18
27.4%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 18 yds to the MTSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
27.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 12 yds to the MTSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
34.4%
Cam'ron Lacy 52 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 7TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 4:2864% → 77%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
35.7%
Deuce Bailey pass complete to James BlackStrain for 1 yd to the MOST 22Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
35.6%
Deuce Bailey pass incomplete to James BlackStrain, broken up by Damonte SmithSimilar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+28
36.2%
Deuce Bailey pass complete to Isaiah McMorris for 13 yds to the MOST 35 Middle Tennessee Penalty, personal foul (Kalen Woods) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
50
+7
33.1%
Deuce Bailey run for 7 yds to the MTSU 43Similar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+5
34.7%
Shomari Lawrence run for 5 yds to the MTSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
34.7%
Deuce Bailey pass complete to Jeron Askren for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 39Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 11
OPP 39
0
34.4%
Deuce Bailey pass incomplete to Ronnel Johnson, broken up by Muaaz ByardSimilar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+17
35.4%
Deuce Bailey pass complete to Tristian Gardner for 17 yds to the MTSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
33.7%
Ramone Green Jr. run for 2 yds to the MTSU 20Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+20
23.1%
Ronnel Johnson 20 Yd pass from Deuce Bailey (Yousef Obeid Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3123% → 22%
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
23.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to AJ Jones for 5 yds to the MTSU 40Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
25.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to AJ Jones for 3 yds to the MTSU 43Similar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 2
OWN 43
-3
24.0%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Thomas Anderson for a loss of 3 yards to the MTSU 40 Middle Tennessee Penalty, illegal formation (Yards) to the MTSU 40Similar
Q2 3:53
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
22.0%
Ashton Logan punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 9FG
8 plays · 71 yds · 2:4077% → 89%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+14
23.1%
Deuce Bailey pass complete to Makai Cope for 14 yds to the MOST 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
22.4%
Shomari Lawrence run for 6 yds to the MOST 27Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+4
22.5%
Deuce Bailey run for 4 yds to the MOST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+42
14.4%
Deuce Bailey pass complete to Tristian Gardner for 42 yds to the MTSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
13.5%
Deuce Bailey run for 8 yds to the MTSU 19Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 2
OPP 19
0
13.1%
Deuce Bailey pass incomplete to Tristian Gardner, broken up by De'Arre McDonaldSimilar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 2
OPP 19
-3
13.5%
Deuce Bailey run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTSU 22Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+39
11.3%
Yousef Obeid 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10FG
9 plays · 56 yds · 0:5511% → 18%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
11.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Hunter Tipton for 12 yds to the MTSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
11.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Hunter Tipton for 12 yds to the MTSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
11.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Nahzae Cox, broken up by Jordan DunbarSimilar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
11.5%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 4 yds to the MTSU 49Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+14
11.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Cam'ron Lacy for 14 yds to the MOST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
12.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Hunter TiptonSimilar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+14
11.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 14 yds to the MOST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+40
17.7%
Jacob Hathaway 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 11FG
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:1778% → 85%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+76
21.9%
Deuce Bailey pass complete to Ramone Green Jr. for 76 yds to the MTSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
20.4%
Shomari Lawrence run for 4 yds to the MTSU 8Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 6
OPP 8
-1
20.0%
Deuce Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 9Similar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+1
20.0%
Deuce Bailey run for 1 yd to the MTSU 8Similar
Q3 12:33
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+25
15.4%
Yousef Obeid 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12DOWNS
10 plays · 37 yds · 3:0418% → 19%
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
18.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jekail Middlebrook for 7 yds to the MTSU 32Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
18.9%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 6 yds to the MTSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
18.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Hunter Tipton for 9 yds Nicholas Vattiato fumbled, recovered by MTSUSimilar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 1
OWN 47
0
19.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to AJ JonesSimilar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+7
19.4%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 7 yds to the MOST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
19.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Cam'ron Lacy for 4 yds to the MOST 42Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
19.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Hunter TiptonSimilar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+4
19.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Kason Stokes for 4 yds to the MOST 38Similar
Q3 9:27
4TH & 2
OPP 38
0
18.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Kason Stokes, broken up by Jordan DunbarSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5088% → 90%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
11.8%
Shomari Lawrence run for 7 yds to the MOST 45Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
9.9%
Deuce Bailey pass incomplete to Connor LairSimilar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
9.9%
Deuce Bailey pass incomplete to Brendon McQueen, broken up by Anthony BynumSimilar
Q3 8:30
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
10.4%
Stewart McDonald punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:1816% → 14%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
15.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to AJ Jones for 5 yds to the MTSU 25Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+6
15.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jekail Middlebrook for 6 yds to the MTSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
15.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Hunter TiptonSimilar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
15.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Myles Butler, broken up by Christian FordSimilar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
14.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Jekail Middlebrook, broken up by Jalen BrooksSimilar
Q3 7:02
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
14.1%
Ashton Logan punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 15FUMBLE
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:3591% → 91%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
9.5%
Deuce Bailey pass complete to James BlackStrain for 11 yds to the MOST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
9.0%
Shomari Lawrence run for 10 yds to the MOST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
8.2%
Shomari Lawrence run for 2 yds to the MOST 43Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
7.9%
Deuce Bailey pass incomplete to James BlackStrainSimilar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+7
9.0%
Deuce Bailey run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:14
4TH & 1
50
-1
9.0%
Deuce Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the MOST 49 Deuce Bailey fumbled, recovered by MOST Deuce BaileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0917% → 15%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
17.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Evan Poticher for 5 yds to the MOST 44Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+4
17.2%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 4 yds to the MOST 40Similar
Q3 3:02
3RD & 1
OPP 40
-4
16.9%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, false start (Mateo Guevara) to the MOST 44Similar
Q3 2:38
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+1
16.4%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 1 yd to the MOST 43Similar
Q3 1:56
4TH & 4
OPP 43
+1
15.0%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 1 yd to the MOST 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:3893% → 92%
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-20
7.0%
Deuce Bailey sacked by Anthony Bynum for a loss of 20 yards to the MOST 22 Deuce Bailey fumbled, recovered by MOST Jeron Askren , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 0:58
2ND & 30
OWN 22
0
7.5%
Deuce Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:54
3RD & 30
OWN 22
+11
7.8%
Deuce Bailey run for 11 yds to the MOST 33Similar
Q3 0:14
4TH & 19
OWN 33
0
7.7%
Stewart McDonald punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18TD
13 plays · 72 yds · 5:5612% → 45%
Q3 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
11.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 11 yds to the MTSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
12.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Hunter Tipton for 10 yds to the MTSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
12.9%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 5 yds to the MOST 46Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+4
12.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Nahzae Cox for 4 yds to the MOST 42Similar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+3
14.4%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 3 yds to the MOST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
14.2%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Dylan Dixson for a loss of 1 yard to the MOST 40 for a 1ST down Missouri State Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Ryan Williams) to the MOST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
17.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Jekail MiddlebrookSimilar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+3
16.8%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 3 yds to the MOST 22Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+11
14.1%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Cooper Roy for 0 yards to the MOST 22 for a 1ST down Missouri State Penalty, face mask (11 yards) (Mitchell Toney) to the MOST 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-2
15.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Nahzae Cox for a loss of 2 yards to the MOST 13Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 12
OPP 13
0
14.7%
Jekail Middlebrook run for no gain to the MOST 13 Middle Tennessee Penalty, face mask (0 yards) (Kanye Young) to the MOST 13Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 12
OPP 13
+3
14.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Nahzae Cox for 3 yds to the MOST 10Similar
Q4 9:12
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+10
44.8%
Cam'ron Lacy 10 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 19FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 4:4239% → 16%
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
61.1%
Shomari Lawrence run for 4 yds to the MOST 36Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+7
60.8%
Deuce Bailey run for 7 yds to the MOST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
60.6%
Deuce Bailey pass incomplete to Jeron AskrenSimilar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-4
61.2%
Deuce Bailey sacked by Brandon Buckner for a loss of 4 yards to the MOST 39Similar
Q4 7:13
3RD & 14
OWN 39
+26
71.9%
Deuce Bailey pass complete to Tristian Gardner for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down Middle Tennessee Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Korey Smith) to the MTSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+20
70.0%
Deuce Bailey pass complete to Ronnel Johnson for 20 yds Deuce Bailey fumbled, recovered by MOST Cash Hudson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-3
71.4%
Deuce Bailey run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTSU 18Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 13
OPP 18
0
75.7%
Deuce Bailey pass incomplete to James BlackStrain, broken up by De'Arre McDonaldSimilar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 13
OPP 18
+6
78.8%
Deuce Bailey pass complete to Dash Luke for 6 yds to the MTSU 12Similar
Q4 4:19
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+29
84.2%
Yousef Obeid 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20MISSED FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 3:1391% → 91%
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
90.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Cam'ron Lacy for 19 yds to the MTSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
92.3%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 4 yds to the MTSU 48Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+2
94.9%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 4
50
+5
95.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to AJ Jones for 5 yds to the MOST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
95.1%
Jekail Middlebrook run for no gain to the MOST 45 for a 1ST down Missouri State Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Tim Brantley Jr.) to the MOST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
91.9%
Jekail Middlebrook run for a loss of 1 yard to the MOST 31Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 11
OPP 31
0
91.3%
Jekail Middlebrook run for no gain to the MOST 31Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 11
OPP 31
0
91.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Hunter Tipton for no gain to the MOST 31Similar
Q4 1:03
4TH & 11
OPP 31
+50
90.5%
Jacob Hathaway 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 21Uncategorized
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:3931% → 27%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-4
69.2%
Deuce Bailey run for a loss of 4 yards to the MOST 27Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 14
OWN 27
-4
72.0%
Deuce Bailey run for a loss of 4 yards to the MOST 23Similar
Q4 0:17
3RD & 18
OWN 23
-5
72.7%
Deuce Bailey run for a loss of 5 yards to the MOST 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-72.7
TD · Q4 9:12
Cam'ron Lacy 10 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)
+30
TD · Q2 5:29
Ronnel Johnson 20 Yd pass from Deuce Bailey (Yousef Obeid Kick)
-10.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com