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LIB

Liberty 19 at UTEP 8

UTEP
2025 · Week 7 · Oct 8, 2025 · Sun Bowl
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Win probability · UTEP
modelUTEP aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playUTEP scoreLIB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:18 · Noah Botsford punt for 42 yds , Reese Smith returns for no gain to the LIB 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 63Home team on offense−9.5Score differential−3.2Garbage-time factor−3.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Pregame prior+1.6
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 8:25: Jay Billingsley 29 yd FG GOOD — LIB win probability +5.1 pts (now 64%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 11:18: Jay Billingsley 50 yd FG GOOD — LIB win probability +3.7 pts (now 78%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 7:27: Jay Billingsley 41 yd FG GOOD — LIB win probability +7.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 7:12: Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Kenny Odom — UTEP win probability +6.9 pts (now 16%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:39: Jackson Cleaver kickoff for 64 yds — UTEP win probability +14.7 pts (now 19%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTEP made the numbers' call on 3 of 6LIB made the numbers' call on 10 of 14
  1. Q1 12:53UTEP 4th & 8 at UTEP 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:23LIB 4th & 2 at UTEP 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    51.8%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    51.1%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:29LIB 4th & 1 at UTEP 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.9%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    51.4%−0.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    50.1%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:16UTEP 4th & 2 at UTEP 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:53LIB 4th & 3 at UTEP 9, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.8%−0.3
    89% to make
    Punt
    53.3%−3.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:35UTEP 4th & 6 at UTEP 16, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:11LIB 4th & 1 at UTEP 35, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    57.6%−1.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    57.2%−1.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:25LIB 4th & 3 at UTEP 11, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.5%−0.5
    87% to make
    Punt
    56.0%−4.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:18UTEP 4th & 4 at UTEP 31, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:06LIB 4th & 3 at LIB 46, up 13
    Close callPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:58UTEP 4th & 2 at UTEP 28, down 13
    Close callPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:45LIB 4th & 7 at LIB 22, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−2.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%
    average punt
  13. Q2 2:30UTEP 4th & 5 at UTEP 30, down 13
    Close callPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:55LIB 4th & 10 at LIB 17, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−3.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 11:18LIB 4th & 15 at UTEP 32, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−2.2
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    74.1%−1.5
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:27LIB 4th & 6 at UTEP 23, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    75.1%−7.1
    average punt
  17. Q3 1:48LIB 4th & 1 at UTEP 44, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    90.7%−3.8
    27% to make
    Punt
    91.9%−2.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:55LIB 4th & 3 at UTEP 35, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    94.2%−1.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    93.6%−1.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:09LIB 4th & 9 at UTEP 44, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    87.6%−0.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.4%
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:21LIB 4th & 4 at UTEP 25, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.9%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    89.1%−3.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LIB made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:21LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTEPDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:0153% → 53%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
52.6%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
52.7%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Kenny Odom for 5 yds to the UTEP 33Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+10
52.8%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Judah Ezinwa for 10 yds to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
52.9%
Skyler Locklear pass incomplete to Kenny OdomSimilar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
52.9%
Skyler Locklear pass incomplete to Jaylan BrownSimilar
Q1 13:19
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+2
52.9%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Hahsaun Wilson for 2 yds to the UTEP 45Similar
Q1 12:53
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
52.9%
Noah Botsford punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LIB 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 2TD
15 plays · 94 yds · 6:2047% → 51%
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+29
53.0%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Julian Gray for 29 yds to the LIB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+31
52.9%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jaylon Coleman for 31 yds to the UTEP 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
52.5%
(11:46) No Huddle-Shotgun Blue,Vaughn rush left for 14 yards gain to the UTEP20 (Content,Justin), out of bounds PENALTY LIB Holding (Ryan,Caleb) 10 yards from UTEP34 to UTEP44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 20
OPP 44
+6
52.7%
Eric Smith run for 6 yds to the UTEP 38Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 14
OPP 38
+13
52.8%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jamari Person for 13 yds to the UTEP 25Similar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 1
OPP 25
-1
52.5%
Vaughn Blue run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 26Similar
Q1 9:23
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+11
52.9%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Julian Gray for 11 yds to the UTEP 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
52.3%
Vaughn Blue run for 3 yds to the UTEP 12Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
52.2%
Ethan Vasko pass incomplete to Tyson MobleySimilar
Q1 8:13
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+6
52.5%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Donte Lee Jr. for 6 yds to the UTEP 6Similar
Q1 7:29
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+2
52.8%
Ethan Vasko run for 2 yds to the UTEP 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
52.0%
Vaughn Blue run for 2 yds to the UTEP 2Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
48.9%
Ethan Vasko run for 2 yds for a TD (Jay Billingsley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5950% → 49%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
49.8%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the UTEP 26Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-4
49.6%
Hahsaun Wilson run for a loss of 4 yards to the UTEP 22Similar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+11
49.0%
Skyler Locklear run for 11 yds to the UTEP 33Similar
Q1 4:16
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
49.0%
Noah Botsford punt for 35 yds , Reese Smith returns for no gain to the LIB 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 4FG
13 plays · 62 yds · 4:1751% → 55%
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
49.0%
Caden Williams run for 5 yds to the LIB 34Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+23
48.5%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Julian Gray for 23 yds to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
47.7%
Caden Williams run for 1 yd to the UTEP 42Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+7
47.4%
Caden Williams run for 7 yds to the UTEP 35Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+5
47.0%
Ethan Vasko run for 5 yds to the UTEP 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
46.5%
Ethan Vasko pass incomplete to Tyson MobleySimilar
Q1 1:12
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+14
46.6%
Ethan Vasko run for 14 yds to the UTEP 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
45.7%
Caden Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 18Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 18
+9
45.4%
Caden Williams run for 9 yds to the UTEP 9Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 3
OPP 9
0
45.5%
Ethan Vasko pass incomplete to Vaughn BlueSimilar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 3
OPP 9
+27
44.8%
Jay Billingsley 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0444% → 43%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
44.2%
Elijah McCoy run for 5 yds to the UTEP 17Similar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 5
OWN 17
-1
44.1%
Elijah McCoy run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 16Similar
Q2 13:46
3RD & 6
OWN 16
0
43.0%
Skyler Locklear pass incomplete to Toric Goins Jr.Similar
Q2 13:35
4TH & 6
OWN 16
+6
42.7%
Noah Botsford punt for 46 yds , Reese Smith returns for 6 yds to the LIB 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 6FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 5:0656% → 64%
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
43.6%
Eric Smith run for 7 yds to the UTEP 49Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+5
43.2%
Vaughn Blue run for 5 yds to the UTEP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
42.9%
Ethan Vasko pass incomplete to Donte Lee Jr.Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
42.9%
Ethan Vasko run for no gain to the UTEP 44Similar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+9
42.6%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jamari Person for 9 yds to the UTEP 35Similar
Q2 11:11
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+1
42.3%
Ethan Vasko run for 1 yd to the UTEP 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+16
41.3%
Vaughn Blue run for 16 yds to the UTEP 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
40.8%
Vaughn Blue run for 5 yds to the UTEP 13Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+3
40.7%
Ethan Vasko run for 3 yds to the UTEP 10Similar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 2
OPP 10
-1
41.1%
Ethan Vasko run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 11Similar
Q2 8:25
4TH & 3
OPP 11
+29
36.1%
Jay Billingsley 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0133% → 31%
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
32.8%
Elijah McCoy run for 6 yds to the UTEP 31Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
32.6%
Elijah McCoy run for no gain to the UTEP 31Similar
Q2 7:28
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
31.7%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Trevon TateSimilar
Q2 7:18
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
31.3%
Noah Botsford punt for 42 yds , Reese Smith returns for no gain to the LIB 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:1264% → 65%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
36.5%
PENALTY UTEP UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Lowe,Kode) 15 yards from LIB24 to LIB39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
35.5%
Ethan Vasko pass incomplete to Tyson MobleySimilar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
35.7%
Darius Copeland run for 6 yds to the LIB 45Similar
Q2 6:31
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+1
35.5%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Reese Smith for 1 yd to the LIB 46Similar
Q2 6:06
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
34.9%
Max Morgan punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0331% → 30%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
31.0%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the UTEP 23Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
30.7%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Hahsaun Wilson for 5 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
29.9%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Alex SzczesniakSimilar
Q2 4:58
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
29.6%
Noah Botsford punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LIB 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0466% → 66%
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
34.5%
Ethan Vasko pass incomplete to Julian GraySimilar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+3
34.6%
Vaughn Blue run for 3 yds to the LIB 22Similar
Q2 4:01
3RD & 7
OWN 22
0
33.8%
Liberty Penalty, Personal Foul (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 3:45
4TH & 7
OWN 22
0
34.2%
Max Morgan punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTEP 25 , Eric Willis III returns for no gain to the UTEP 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0330% → 28%
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
29.9%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Jaylan Brown for 5 yds to the UTEP 30Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
30.0%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Jaylan BrownSimilar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
29.4%
Hahsaun Wilson run for no gain to the UTEP 30Similar
Q2 2:30
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+4
28.3%
Noah Botsford punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LIB 17 , Reese Smith returns for 4 yds to the LIB 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 1:2968% → 74%
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
31.9%
Vaughn Blue run for 4 yds to the LIB 21Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+4
26.2%
Eric Smith run for 4 yds to the LIB 25Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 2
OWN 25
-12
26.0%
PENALTY LIB UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Smith,Eric) 12 yards from LIB25 to LIB12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 15
OWN 12
+5
27.0%
Vaughn Blue run for 5 yds to the LIB 17Similar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 10
OWN 17
0
25.6%
Max Morgan punt for 45 yds , Eric Willis III returns for no gain to the UTEP 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 13Uncategorized
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:0027% → 28%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
27.4%
PENALTY LIB UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Ricks, Jr.,Dexter) 15 yards from UTEP28 to UTEP43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
28.3%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Kenny Odom for 4 yds to the UTEP 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 14INT
15 plays · 12 yds · 4:1168% → 78%
Q2 0:29
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+10
32.2%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Wondame Davis Jr. for 10 yds to the LIB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
32.2%
Skyler Locklear sacked by Joe Strickland for a loss of 5 yards to the LIB 48Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 15
OPP 48
+7
31.0%
Skyler Locklear run for 7 yds to the LIB 41Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 41
-70
31.1%
Skyler Locklear pass intercepted Jiquavious Marshall return for 70 yds to the UTEP 23Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
30.7%
Vaughn Blue run for 7 yds to the LIB 32Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
29.6%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 15 yds to the LIB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
28.0%
Vaughn Blue run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 7
50
+12
26.6%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jamari Person for 12 yds to the UTEP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
25.9%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jamari Person for 11 yds to the UTEP 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
25.2%
Ethan Vasko pass incomplete to Eric SmithSimilar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
25.3%
Vaughn Blue run for 2 yds to the UTEP 25Similar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 8
OPP 25
-7
25.3%
Liberty Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Ethan Vasko) to the UTEP 32Similar
Q3 11:18
4TH & 15
OPP 32
+50
21.6%
Jay Billingsley 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 15PUNT
12 plays · -4 yds · 3:3976% → 90%
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
23.7%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Judah Ezinwa for 2 yds to the UTEP 27Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
23.5%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Kenny OdomSimilar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-6
22.9%
Malachi Nelson sacked by Bryce Dixon for a loss of 6 yards to the UTEP 21Similar
Q3 10:09
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
22.3%
Noah Botsford punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LIB 39Similar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+22
18.8%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Donte Lee Jr. for 22 yds to the UTEP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
18.2%
Caden Williams run for 12 yds to the UTEP 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
17.5%
Caden Williams run for 1 yd to the UTEP 26Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 9
OPP 26
0
17.4%
Ethan Vasko pass incomplete to Caleb RyanSimilar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+3
17.6%
Caden Williams run for 3 yds to the UTEP 23Similar
Q3 7:27
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+41
10.5%
Jay Billingsley 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16PUNT
20 plays · 3 yds · 7:1784% → 95%
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
16.4%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Kenny OdomSimilar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+2
16.1%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the UTEP 25Similar
Q3 6:24
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+9
15.6%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Josh Schuchts for 9 yds to the UTEP 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
15.9%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Wondame Davis Jr.Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-8
15.6%
Malachi Nelson sacked by A'Khori Jones for a loss of 8 yards to the UTEP 26Similar
Q3 5:01
3RD & 18
OWN 26
0
14.2%
Malachi Nelson run for no gain to the UTEP 26Similar
Q3 4:30
4TH & 18
OWN 26
0
12.9%
Noah Botsford punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LIB 30Similar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
6.6%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jamari Person for 7 yds to the LIB 37Similar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+1
6.2%
Vaughn Blue run for 1 yd to the LIB 38Similar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+9
5.7%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jacob Jenkins for 9 yds to the LIB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
5.2%
Ethan Vasko pass incomplete to Jacob JenkinsSimilar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
5.2%
Ethan Vasko pass incomplete to Julian GraySimilar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+9
5.2%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Austin Henderson for 9 yds to the UTEP 44Similar
Q3 1:48
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+2
5.2%
Ethan Vasko run for 2 yds to the UTEP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
4.5%
Vaughn Blue run for 2 yds to the UTEP 40Similar
Q3 0:34
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
4.3%
Ethan Vasko pass incomplete to Donte Lee Jr.Similar
Q3 0:34
3RD & 8
OPP 40
-5
4.4%
PENALTY LIB Delay Of Game (Vasko,Ethan) 5 yards from UTEP40 to UTEP45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 45
+10
4.3%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Caleb Ryan for 10 yds to the UTEP 35Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 3
OPP 35
0
4.7%
Ethan Vasko pass incomplete to Elijah CanionSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 17PUNT
15 plays · 31 yds · 6:2483% → 89%
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
16.9%
Ethan Vasko run for 2 yds to the LIB 27Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
14.7%
Caden Williams run for no gain to the LIB 27Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+14
14.2%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Casey Cain for 14 yds to the LIB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
12.0%
Caden Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the LIB 40Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+15
12.1%
UTEP Penalty, Personal Foul (Micah Davey) to the UTEP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
10.9%
Caden Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 47Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+3
10.4%
Caden Williams run for 3 yds to the UTEP 44Similar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
9.8%
Ethan Vasko pass incomplete to Casey CainSimilar
Q4 7:09
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
10.7%
Max Morgan punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
12.8%
Skyler Locklear run for 15 yds to the UTEP 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
11.4%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Josh Schuchts for 4 yds to the UTEP 39Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
12.5%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Josh Schuchts for 5 yds to the UTEP 44Similar
Q4 5:29
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
12.3%
Hahsaun Wilson run for no gain to the UTEP 44Similar
Q4 5:07
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
11.3%
Ashten Emory run for no gain to the UTEP 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 24 yds · 1:4192% → 94%
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
7.6%
Vaughn Blue run for 2 yds to the UTEP 42Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+11
7.4%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Austin Henderson for 11 yds to the UTEP 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
6.6%
Ethan Vasko run for 4 yds to the UTEP 27Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+2
6.1%
Vaughn Blue run for 2 yds to the UTEP 25Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 4
OPP 25
0
5.1%
Ethan Vasko pass incomplete to Donte Lee Jr.Similar
Q4 3:21
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+43
5.8%
Jay Billingsley 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 19MISSED FG
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:355% → 5%
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
4.9%
Skyler Locklear run for 12 yds to the UTEP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
5.2%
Skyler Locklear pass incomplete to Trevon TateSimilar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
5.1%
Skyler Locklear pass incomplete to Wondame Davis Jr.Similar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
4.7%
Skyler Locklear pass intercepted Eldric Griffin return for no gain to the LIB 41Similar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+15
4.7%
Liberty Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the LIB 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 20INT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:3795% → 97%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
4.8%
Ethan Vasko run for 4 yds to the LIB 30Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+14
4.8%
Vaughn Blue run for 14 yds to the LIB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
3.1%
E. Vasko takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 42
-1
3.3%
E. Vasko takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 41
-2
3.3%
E. Vasko takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 11:39
Jackson Cleaver kickoff for 64 yds
+14.7
FG · Q3 7:27
Jay Billingsley 41 yd FG GOOD
-7
KEY PLAY · Q3 7:12
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Kenny Odom
+6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com