2025 · Week 6 · Oct 3, 2025 · Delaware Stadium
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Win probability · DEL
modelDEL aheadWKU aheadconfidence bandkey playDEL scoreWKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:55 · John Cannon 41 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:55: K.D. Hutchinson run for 5 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — WKU win probability +12.3 pts (now 52%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:00: Nick Minicucci run for 1 yd for a TD Delaware Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Anthony Caccese) to the WKU 0 (Nate Reed KICK) — DEL win probability +10.4 pts (now 68%) (top driver: DEL has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:20: Nick Minicucci pass intercepted Koron Hayward return for 25 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — WKU win probability +19.8 pts (now 54%) (top driver: DEL has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:38: Maverick McIvor pass complete to George Hart III for 5 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — WKU win probability +15.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:54: Nick Minicucci run for 2 yds for a TD (Nate Reed KICK) — DEL win probability +21.1 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
DEL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6WKU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 3:31DEL 4th & 11 at DEL 35, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.4% before the snapGo for it62.2%−0.726% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.0%average punt
- Q2 14:55WKU 4th & 15 at DEL 23, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.6% before the snapGo for it34.6%−1.016% to convertField goalTheir call35.6%70% to makePunt32.7%−2.9average punt
- Q2 7:55DEL 4th & 6 at WKU 6, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.0% before the snapGo for it62.4%−0.131% to convertField goalTheir call62.5%91% to makePunt58.4%−4.1average punt
- Q2 0:00DEL 4th & 1 at WKU 1, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call62.9%59% to convertField goal59.4%−3.594% to makePunt52.3%−10.6average punt
- Q3 13:07WKU 4th & 17 at midfield, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snapGo for it27.6%−2.414% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.1%average punt
- Q3 10:58DEL 4th & 11 at DEL 15, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snapGo for it68.4%−2.225% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.6%average punt
- Q3 8:01WKU 4th & 12 at DEL 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.8% before the snapGo for it26.6%−1.522% to convertField goalTheir call28.1%66% to makePunt20.3%−7.8average punt
- Q4 8:03WKU 4th & 16 at WKU 30, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snapGo for it54.5%−7.115% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.6%average punt
- Q4 8:03DEL 4th & 1 at WKU 33, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call45.3%71% to convertField goal40.4%−5.049% to makePunt35.2%−10.1average punt
- Q4 3:40DEL 4th & 1 at WKU 22, down 3Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 41.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call40.9%−1.171% to convertField goal42.0%72% to makePunt22.4%−19.6average punt
- Q4 0:54WKU 4th & 4 at WKU 43, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.0% before the snapGo for it84.6%−0.548% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DEL made the numbers' call on 2 of 3WKU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 8:36DEL Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.8%97% to makeGo for two60.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:55WKU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call39.5%97% to makeGo for two39.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:00DEL Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.4%97% to makeGo for two68.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:20WKU Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call50.6%97% to makeGo for two50.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 0:38WKU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.3%97% to makeGo for two74.1%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 9:54DEL Touchdown, down 4 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call37.2%−0.297% to makeGo for two37.4%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartDELDrive 1TD16 plays · 75 yds · 6:2453% → 57%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+33
53.0%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Jake Thaw for 33 yds to the WKU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+11
53.0%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Ja'Carree Kelly for 11 yds to the WKU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
53.0%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Viron Ellison Jr. for 2 yds to the WKU 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+8
53.0%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Connor Witthoft for 8 yds to the WKU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 2FUMBLE9 plays · 44 yds · 4:0844% → 43%
Q1 8:30
2ND & 1
OWN 26
-1
56.0%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for a loss of 1 yard to the WKU 25Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+6
56.3%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 6 yds to the WKU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+10
56.4%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 10 yds to the WKU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+12
57.0%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Moussa Barry for 12 yds Moussa Barry fumbled, recovered by DEL KT SeaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 3PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5159% → 58%
Q1 3:31
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
58.0%
Brenden Lach punt for 43 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the WKU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 4FG9 plays · 55 yds · 3:3642% → 43%
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+48
58.3%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Matthew Henry for 48 yds to the DEL 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
56.7%
PENALTY WKU Illegal Formation (McIvor,Maverick) 5 yards from DEL18 to DEL23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 20
+3
58.7%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Cameron Flowers for 3 yds to the DEL 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 5FG15 plays · 69 yds · 6:5257% → 65%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.6%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Sean Wilson for 5 yds to the DEL 30Similar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
57.2%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Sean Wilson for 6 yds to the DEL 45Similar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
50
+8
57.9%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Max Patterson for 8 yds to the WKU 42Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+6
58.1%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Sean Wilson for 6 yds to the WKU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
58.1%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Elijah Sessoms for 11 yds to the WKU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
58.4%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Jo Silver for 5 yds to the WKU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 6TD15 plays · 75 yds · 6:0037% → 52%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
63.5%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Cameron Flowers for 2 yds to the WKU 27Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
63.3%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Cameron Flowers for 9 yds to the WKU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+15
62.7%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 15 yds to the DEL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
61.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hart III,George rush left for 7 yards gain to the DEL37 (Kolagbodi,Jamarion) PENALTY WKU Illegal Formation (McIvor,Maverick) 5 yards from DEL44 to DEL49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 15
OPP 49
+23
63.5%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Cameron Flowers for 23 yds to the DEL 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
59.9%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 5 yds to the DEL 21Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+6
59.9%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 6 yds to the DEL 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
59.9%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Matthew Henry for 6 yds to the DEL 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 7TD11 plays · 61 yds · 1:4757% → 68%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
57.1%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Ja'Carree Kelly for 18 yds to the WKU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
59.0%
Nick Minicucci pass incomplete to Nick Laboy for a 1ST down Western Kentucky Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Nazir Ward) to the WKU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+23
59.8%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Kyre Duplessis for 23 yds to the WKU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.6%
Nick Minicucci run for 1 yd for a TD Delaware Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Anthony Caccese) to the WKU 0 (Nate Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 8PUNT6 plays · -7 yds · 1:4436% → 31%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
64.2%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Marvis Parrish for no gain to the DEL 43Similar
Q3 14:51
3RD & 7
OPP 40
-10
64.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Wright,La'Vell rush left for 6 yards gain to the DEL34 (Moul,Gavin) PENALTY WKU Holding (Wolf,Justin) 10 yards from DEL40 to DEL50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:07
4TH & 17
50
0
68.8%
Cole Maynard punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kyre Duplessis at the DEL 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 10 yds · 2:0969% → 68%
Q3 10:58
4TH & 11
OWN 15
0
67.5%
Brenden Lach punt for 41 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the WKU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 10FG8 plays · 31 yds · 2:5733% → 35%
DELDrive 11INT TD4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4166% → 46%
Q3 7:20
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-25
46.3%
Nick Minicucci pass intercepted Koron Hayward return for 25 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 12FUMBLE7 plays · 80 yds · 2:2848% → 54%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
47.8%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Jake Thaw for 7 yds to the DEL 27Similar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+30
52.6%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Donovan Lewis for 30 yds to the WKU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
54.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Minicucci,Nick pass incomplete short left to Lewis,Donovan thrown to WKU00 broken up by Ward,Nazir PENALTY WKU Pass Interference (Ward,Nazir) 10 yards from WKU14 to WKU04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
54.0%
Nick Minicucci run for 4 yds Nick Minicucci fumbled, recovered by WKU Elin JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 13TD11 plays · 80 yds · 4:0956% → 80%
Q3 4:47
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
43.3%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Noah Meyers for 3 yds to the WKU 22Similar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+33
46.0%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Matthew Henry for 33 yds to the DEL 45 for a 1ST down Delaware Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+22
40.8%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to La'Vell Wright for 22 yds to the DEL 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
39.1%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for no gain to the DEL 23Similar
Q3 1:54
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+12
38.6%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Matthew Henry for 12 yds to the DEL 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
20.2%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to George Hart III for 5 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 14TD14 plays · 75 yds · 5:4423% → 48%
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
22.6%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Viron Ellison Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the DEL 24Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+14
22.0%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Elijah Sessoms for 14 yds to the DEL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+11
23.3%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Kyre Duplessis for 11 yds to the WKU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
25.3%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Jo Silver for 11 yds to the WKU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
26.7%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Jo Silver for 2 yds to the WKU 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+9
26.7%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Elijah Sessoms for 9 yds to the WKU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+6
26.7%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Jake Thaw for 6 yds to the WKU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 5 yds · 1:5166% → 64%
Q4 9:54
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-15
32.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun McIvor,Maverick pass complete short right to Hutchinson,K.D. caught at WKU45, for 8 yards to the WKU47 (Matthews,Blake) PENALTY WKU Pass Interference (Henry,Matthew) 15 yards from WKU39 to WKU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 22
OWN 24
+6
36.3%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Cameron Flowers for 6 yds to the WKU 30Similar
Q4 8:03
4TH & 16
OWN 30
0
36.3%
Cole Maynard punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kyre Duplessis at the DEL 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 16DOWNS12 plays · 33 yds · 4:2344% → 40%
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
43.6%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Elijah Sessoms for 5 yds to the DEL 49Similar
Q4 8:03
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+11
42.0%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Nick Laboy for 11 yds to the WKU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+9
43.2%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Jake Thaw for 9 yds to the WKU 33Similar
Q4 8:03
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+9
44.1%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Jo Silver for 9 yds to the WKU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17PUNT10 plays · 20 yds · 2:4677% → 90%
DELDrive 18MISSED FG6 plays · 70 yds · 0:5418% → 18%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
18.4%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Elijah Sessoms for 4 yds to the DEL 9Similar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+28
17.8%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Jo Silver for 28 yds to the DEL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
16.6%
Nick Minicucci pass incomplete to Sean Wilson for a 1ST down Western Kentucky Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Dylan Flowers) to the WKU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+23
19.9%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Sean Wilson for 23 yds to the WKU 25 for a 1ST down Western Kentucky Penalty, Defensive Holding (Matthew Henry) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:54
Nick Minicucci run for 2 yds for a TD (Nate Reed KICK)
+21.1
TD · Q3 7:20
Nick Minicucci pass intercepted Koron Hayward return for 25 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
-19.8
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-17.5