SHSU
Sam Houston 10 at New Mexico State 37
NMSU2025 · Week 6 · Oct 3, 2025 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadSHSU aheadconfidence bandkey play
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SHSU · Drive 1MISSED FG · 13 plays · 37 yds
Q1 15:00
Ryan Hawk kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
46.6%
0.0
Q1 14:40
Hunter Watson pass complete to Malik Phillips for 6 yds to the SHSU 31
43.0%
-3.6
Q1 14:00
Hunter Watson pass complete to Qua'Vez Humphreys for 6 yds to the SHSU 37 for a 1ST down
43.0%
0.0
Q1 13:27
Hunter Watson pass complete to Austin Smith for 5 yds to the SHSU 42
42.8%
-0.2
Q1 13:05
Hunter Watson pass complete to Alton McCaskill for 5 yds to the SHSU 47 for a 1ST down
41.6%
-1.2
Q1 12:45
Hunter Watson pass complete to Darrick Bledsoe III for 6 yds to the NMSU 47
40.8%
-0.8
Q1 11:37
Hunter Watson pass complete to Austin Smith for 2 yds to the NMSU 45
40.5%
-0.3
Q1 11:17
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Austin Smith
40.5%
0.0
Q1 11:00
Hunter Watson run for 5 yds to the NMSU 40 for a 1ST down
40.9%
+0.3
Q1 10:30
Alton McCaskill run for 2 yds to the NMSU 38
40.4%
-0.5
Q1 9:59
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Qua'Vez Humphreys
40.4%
0.0
Q1 9:53
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Darrick Bledsoe III
40.4%
0.0
Q1 9:47
RJ Lopez 56 yd FG MISSED
41.2%
+0.8
NMSU · Drive 2FUMBLE · 12 plays · 57 yds
Q1 9:37
Logan Fife pass complete to TK King for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
47.5%
+6.3
Q1 9:20
Kadarius Calloway run for 1 yd to the SHSU 49
48.1%
+0.6
Q1 8:40
Kadarius Calloway run for 1 yd to the SHSU 48
48.9%
+0.8
Q1 7:59
Logan Fife run for 11 yds to the SHSU 37 for a 1ST down
48.7%
-0.2
Q1 7:39
Logan Fife pass incomplete to Donovan Faupel
49.4%
+0.6
Q1 7:26
Logan Fife pass complete to Donovan Faupel for 6 yds to the SHSU 31
49.4%
0.0
Q1 6:29
Logan Fife pass complete to Gavin Harris for 7 yds to the SHSU 24 for a 1ST down
49.3%
-0.1
Q1 5:25
TK King run for 6 yds to the SHSU 18 New Mexico State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Gavin Harris) to the SHSU 28
49.5%
+0.3
Q1 5:20
Logan Fife pass complete to Donovan Faupel for 12 yds to the SHSU 16
49.5%
0.0
Q1 5:13
Logan Fife pass incomplete to PJ Johnson III
49.5%
0.0
Q1 4:58
Isaiah Rudison run for 7 yds to the SHSU 9 for a 1ST down
49.3%
-0.3
Q1 4:23
Isaiah Rudison run for 4 yds to the SHSU 4 Isaiah Rudison fumbled, forced by CJ Brown, recovered by SHSU Emon Allen , return for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 4
49.5%
+0.3
SHSU · Drive 3PUNT · 7 plays · 22 yds
Q1 3:56
Alton McCaskill run for 6 yds to the SHSU 10
43.2%
-6.3
Q1 3:26
Hunter Watson run for 1 yd to the SHSU 11
43.2%
0.0
Q1 2:36
Hunter Watson pass complete to Qua'Vez Humphreys for 6 yds to the SHSU 17 for a 1ST down
43.2%
0.0
Q1 2:18
Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the SHSU 20
43.1%
0.0
Q1 1:26
Alton McCaskill run for 4 yds to the SHSU 24
42.9%
-0.2
Q1 0:28
Landan Brown run for 2 yds to the SHSU 26
43.0%
0.0
Q1 0:20
Curtis Gerrand punt for 72 yds, downed at the NMSU 2
43.0%
0.0
NMSU · Drive 4FG · 15 plays · 87 yds
Q1 0:00
Kadarius Calloway run for 4 yds to the NMSU 6
47.2%
+4.3
Q2 14:50
Kadarius Calloway run for 2 yds to the NMSU 8
47.2%
0.0
Q2 13:45
Logan Fife pass complete to Kadarius Calloway for 7 yds to the NMSU 15 for a 1ST down
47.2%
0.0
Q2 13:00
Logan Fife pass complete to TK King for 40 yds to the SHSU 45 for a 1ST down
47.2%
0.0
Q2 12:49
Logan Fife pass complete to Donovan Faupel for 5 yds to the SHSU 40
49.3%
+2.1
Q2 11:55
Tim Gans run for 2 yds to the SHSU 38
49.5%
+0.2
Q2 11:20
Logan Fife pass complete to Lukas Ungar for 4 yds to the SHSU 34 for a 1ST down
49.3%
-0.3
Q2 11:09
Kadarius Calloway run for 2 yds to the SHSU 32
49.4%
+0.1
Q2 9:59
Logan Fife pass complete to Kadarius Calloway for 9 yds to the SHSU 23 for a 1ST down
49.2%
-0.2
Q2 9:28
Tim Gans run for 5 yds to the SHSU 18
49.2%
0.0
Q2 8:50
Kadarius Calloway run for 5 yds to the SHSU 13 for a 1ST down
49.2%
0.0
Q2 8:07
Kadarius Calloway run for 1 yd to the SHSU 12
50.3%
+1.1
Q2 7:14
Isaiah Rudison run for 1 yd to the SHSU 11
50.3%
0.0
Q2 7:05
Logan Fife pass incomplete to Donovan Faupel
50.1%
-0.3
Q2 7:00
Ryan Hawk 28 yd FG GOOD
55.0%
+4.9
SHSU · Drive 5PUNT · 5 plays · -4 yds
Q2 7:00
Ryan Hawk kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
53.5%
-1.4
Q2 6:25
Hunter Watson sacked by Ezra Christensen for a loss of 8 yards to the SHSU 17
50.7%
-2.8
Q2 5:55
Hunter Watson pass complete to Malik Phillips for 4 yds to the SHSU 21
50.8%
+0.1
Q2 5:44
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Chris Reed
50.8%
0.0
Q2 5:33
Curtis Gerrand punt for 47 yds , TJ Pride returns for 15 yds to the NMSU 47
50.8%
0.0
NMSU · Drive 6TD · 6 plays · 53 yds
Q2 5:29
Fife, Logan pass incomplete, PENALTY SHSU personal foul (Jackson, Darien) 15 yards to the SHSU38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NEWMEXST.
55.4%
+4.5
Q2 5:10
TK King run for a loss of 2 yards to the SHSU 40
56.1%
+0.7
Q2 4:04
Logan Fife sacked by Darien Jackson for a loss of 2 yards to the SHSU 42
56.3%
+0.2
Q2 3:54
Logan Fife pass complete to Donovan Faupel for 15 yds to the SHSU 27 for a 1ST down
56.0%
-0.2
Q2 2:58
Logan Fife pass complete to Shawn Brown for 26 yds to the SHSU 1 for a 1ST down
56.3%
+0.2
Q2 2:45
Logan Fife run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Hawk KICK)
71.8%
+15.5
SHSU · Drive 7FG · 10 plays · 42 yds
Q2 2:45
Ryan Hawk kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
71.3%
-0.4
Q2 2:20
Hunter Watson run for 6 yds to the SHSU 31
69.5%
-1.8
Q2 2:00
Alton McCaskill run for 13 yds to the SHSU 44 for a 1ST down
69.4%
-0.1
Q2 1:30
Hunter Watson pass complete to Alton McCaskill for 6 yds to the 50 yard line
69.4%
0.0
Q2 1:21
Hunter Watson pass complete to Grady O'Neill for 16 yds to the NMSU 34 for a 1ST down
68.8%
-0.5
Q2 1:21
Timeout New Mexico State, clock 01:21
68.9%
0.0
Q2 1:00
Alton McCaskill run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMSU 36
68.9%
0.0
Q2 0:45
Hunter Watson run for 3 yds to the NMSU 33
69.2%
+0.3
Q2 0:40
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Grady O'Neill
68.9%
-0.3
Q2 0:35
Christian Pavon 51 yd FG GOOD
60.2%
-8.7
NMSU · Drive 8END OF HALF · 2 plays · 4 yds
Q2 0:35
Christian Pavon kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
61.7%
+1.5
Q2 0:17
Kadarius Calloway run for 4 yds to the NMSU 29
64.8%
+3.1
NMSU · Drive 9PUNT · 6 plays · 19 yds
Q3 15:00
RJ Lopez kickoff for 58 yds , TK King return for 19 yds to the NMSU 26
60.6%
-4.2
Q3 14:23
Logan Fife pass complete to TK King for 13 yds to the NMSU 39 for a 1ST down
66.1%
+5.4
Q3 14:00
Logan Fife run for 2 yds to the NMSU 41
66.6%
+0.6
Q3 13:25
Kadarius Calloway run for 4 yds to the NMSU 45
67.6%
+1.0
Q3 13:11
Logan Fife pass incomplete to Gavin Harris
67.5%
-0.2
Q3 13:03
Max Dean punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SHSU 17
66.9%
-0.6
SHSU · Drive 10FUMBLE · 14 plays · 64 yds
Q3 12:33
Alton McCaskill run for 6 yds to the SHSU 23
60.6%
-6.3
Q3 11:54
Hunter Watson pass complete to Landan Brown for 15 yds to the SHSU 38 for a 1ST down
60.6%
0.0
Q3 11:44
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Alton McCaskill
60.1%
-0.6
Q3 11:18
Hunter Watson run for 2 yds to the SHSU 40
60.1%
0.0
Q3 11:00
Hunter Watson pass complete to Landan Brown for 17 yds to the NMSU 43 for a 1ST down
60.1%
0.0
Q3 10:07
Landan Brown run for 8 yds to the NMSU 35
58.3%
-1.7
Q3 9:45
Hunter Watson pass complete to Grady O'Neill for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 36
58.4%
0.0
Q3 9:09
Alton McCaskill run for 6 yds to the NMSU 30 for a 1ST down
58.4%
0.0
Q3 8:54
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Qua'Vez Humphreys
58.4%
0.0
Q3 8:30
Hunter Watson pass complete to Qua'Vez Humphreys for 14 yds to the NMSU 16 for a 1ST down
58.4%
0.0
Q3 7:51
Alton McCaskill run for no gain to the NMSU 16
58.4%
0.0
Q3 7:20
Alton McCaskill run for 1 yd to the NMSU 15
58.4%
0.0
Q3 7:02
Timeout Sam Houston, clock 07:02
58.5%
+0.1
Q3 6:56
Hunter Watson run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMSU 19 Hunter Watson fumbled, recovered by NMSU Cole Schnettgoecke
58.5%
0.0
NMSU · Drive 11FG · 8 plays · 66 yds
Q3 6:56
Sam Houston Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the NMSU 24
69.3%
+10.9
Q3 6:00
Logan Fife pass complete to Kadarius Calloway for no gain to the NMSU 24 for a 1ST down Sam Houston Penalty, Personal Foul (Cecil Powell) to the NMSU 39 for a 1ST down
69.3%
0.0
Q3 5:21
Logan Fife pass complete to TK King for 54 yds to the SHSU 7 for a 1ST down
70.3%
+1.0
Q3 5:15
Kadarius Calloway run for 6 yds to the SHSU 1
70.9%
+0.6
Q3 4:25
Logan Fife run for a loss of 8 yards to the SHSU 9 Logan Fife fumbled, forced by CJ Brown, recovered by NMSU Kadarius Calloway
72.1%
+1.2
Q3 4:25
Timeout New Mexico State, clock 04:25
72.0%
-0.1
Q3 3:45
TK King run for a loss of 6 yards to the SHSU 15
72.0%
0.0
Q3 3:40
Ryan Hawk 32 yd FG GOOD
77.8%
+5.8
SHSU · Drive 12TD · 9 plays · 75 yds
Q3 3:40
Ryan Hawk kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
77.3%
-0.5
Q3 3:08
Alton McCaskill run for 1 yd to the SHSU 26
74.2%
-3.1
Q3 3:00
Alton McCaskill run for no gain to the SHSU 26
74.2%
0.0
Q3 2:26
Hunter Watson run for 12 yds to the SHSU 38 for a 1ST down
74.4%
+0.2
Q3 2:00
Landan Brown run for 1 yd to the SHSU 39
74.4%
0.0
Q3 1:19
Hunter Watson pass complete to Qua'Vez Humphreys for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
76.7%
+2.3
Q3 0:50
Hunter Watson pass complete to Malik Phillips for 26 yds to the NMSU 24 for a 1ST down
76.2%
-0.6
Q3 0:15
Hunter Watson pass complete to Malik Phillips for 9 yds to the NMSU 15
77.6%
+1.4
Q3 0:01
Hunter Watson pass complete to Alton McCaskill for 15 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK)
51.2%
-26.4
NMSU · Drive 13TD · 9 plays · 75 yds
Q3 0:01
Christian Pavon kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
54.3%
+3.1
Q3 0:00
Kadarius Calloway run for 29 yds to the SHSU 46 for a 1ST down
59.8%
+5.6
Q4 14:30
Kadarius Calloway run for 3 yds to the SHSU 43
62.6%
+2.7
Q4 14:23
Logan Fife pass incomplete to TK King
62.9%
+0.4
Q4 14:00
Logan Fife pass complete to Kadarius Calloway for 27 yds to the SHSU 16 for a 1ST down
62.7%
-0.2
Q4 13:37
Logan Fife pass incomplete to TK King
62.9%
+0.2
Q4 12:45
Logan Fife pass complete to TK King for 6 yds to the SHSU 10
62.9%
0.0
Q4 12:30
Logan Fife pass complete to TK King for 7 yds to the SHSU 3 for a 1ST down
62.7%
-0.2
Q4 12:09
Kadarius Calloway run for 3 yds for a TD (Ryan Hawk KICK)
80.9%
+18.3
NMSU · Drive 14TD · 4 plays · 2 yds
Q4 12:05
Ryan Hawk kickoff for 63 yds , Shane Porter return for no gain to the SHSU 2 Shane Porter fumbled, recovered by NMSU Kadarius Calloway
80.4%
-0.5
Q4 11:46
Kadarius Calloway run for a loss of 2 yards to the SHSU 4
81.3%
+0.8
Q4 11:20
Logan Fife pass incomplete to Gavin Harris
81.3%
0.0
Q4 11:15
Logan Fife pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 4 yds for a TD (Ryan Hawk KICK)
89.3%
+8.0
SHSU · Drive 15DOWNS · 8 plays · 15 yds
Q4 11:15
Ryan Hawk kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
89.3%
0.0
Q4 11:05
Hunter Watson pass complete to Darrick Bledsoe III for 17 yds to the SHSU 42 for a 1ST down
88.1%
-1.2
Q4 10:30
Hunter Watson pass complete to Malik Phillips for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 41
88.1%
0.0
Q4 10:20
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Alton McCaskill
88.1%
0.0
Q4 10:00
Watson, Hunter pass complete to Humphreys, Qua'Vez for 8 yards to the SHSU49, PENALTY NEWMEXST offside 5 yards to the SHSU46, NO PLAY.
88.2%
+0.1
Q4 9:14
Hunter Watson sacked by Tory Gethers for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 45
88.2%
0.0
Q4 9:00
Sam Houston Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SHSU 40
88.2%
0.0
Q4 8:29
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Grady O'Neill
88.2%
0.0
NMSU · Drive 16FG · 7 plays · 12 yds
Q4 8:14
Kadarius Calloway run for 3 yds to the SHSU 37
89.3%
+1.1
Q4 7:00
Isaiah Rudison run for 9 yds to the SHSU 28 for a 1ST down
89.3%
0.0
Q4 6:00
Isaiah Rudison run for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 29
89.3%
0.0
Q4 5:43
Isaiah Rudison run for no gain to the SHSU 29
89.3%
0.0
Q4 5:38
Timeout New Mexico State, clock 05:38
89.4%
+0.1
Q4 5:00
Logan Fife pass complete to Kadarius Calloway for 1 yd to the SHSU 28
89.4%
0.0
Q4 4:56
Ryan Hawk 45 yd FG GOOD
91.1%
+1.6
SHSU · Drive 17INT TD · 7 plays · 36 yds
Q4 4:56
Ryan Hawk kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
91.1%
0.0
Q4 4:30
Hunter Watson pass complete to Tim Burns Jr. for 28 yds to the NMSU 47 for a 1ST down
90.1%
-1.0
Q4 4:17
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Grady O'Neill
90.6%
+0.5
Q4 3:50
Hunter Watson pass complete to Landan Brown for 10 yds to the NMSU 37 for a 1ST down
90.6%
0.0
Q4 3:15
Alton McCaskill run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMSU 39
90.4%
-0.2
Q4 2:55
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Qua'Vez Humphreys
90.4%
0.0
Q4 2:39
Hunter Watson pass intercepted Naeten Mitchell return for 71 yds for a TD (Ryan Hawk KICK)
91.6%
+1.3
SHSU · Drive 18END OF GAME · 8 plays · 26 yds
Q4 2:39
Ryan Hawk kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
91.7%
+0.1
Q4 2:25
Landan Brown run for no gain to the SHSU 25
91.8%
+0.1
Q4 2:00
Mabrey Mettauer pass complete to Landan Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the SHSU 23
91.7%
-0.1
Q4 1:19
Mabrey Mettauer pass complete to Landan Brown for 9 yds to the SHSU 32
91.9%
+0.2
Q4 0:50
Mabrey Mettauer pass complete to Chris Reed for 11 yds to the SHSU 43 for a 1ST down
91.9%
0.0
Q4 0:34
Mabrey Mettauer pass complete to Landan Brown for 5 yds to the SHSU 48
91.9%
0.0
Q4 0:10
Mabrey Mettauer run for 4 yds to the NMSU 48
91.9%
0.0
Q4 0:00
Mabrey Mettauer pass complete to Landan Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 49
91.8%
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:01
Hunter Watson pass complete to Alton McCaskill for 15 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK)
-26.4
TD · Q4 12:09
Kadarius Calloway run for 3 yds for a TD (Ryan Hawk KICK)
+18.3
TD · Q2 2:45
Logan Fife run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Hawk KICK)
+15.5