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WKU

Western Kentucky 27 at Missouri State 22

MOST
2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Plaster Sports Complex
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Win probability · MOST
modelMOST aheadWKU aheadconfidence bandkey playMOST scoreWKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:45 · Cole Maynard punt for 56 yds , Dash Luke returns for 8 yds to the MOST 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 20Home team on offense−0.2Pregame prior−11.9Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:56: Maverick McIvor pass complete to Noah Meyers for 39 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — WKU win probability +5.8 pts (now 63%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:16: Shomari Lawrence run for 32 yds for a TD (Yousef Obeid KICK) — MOST win probability +19.0 pts (now 64%) (top driver: MOST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:29: La'Vell Wright run for 2 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — WKU win probability +13.3 pts (now 61%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:16: La'Vell Wright run for 17 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — WKU win probability +19.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:13: Deuce Bailey pass complete to Tristian Gardner for 9 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — MOST win probability +13.1 pts (now 30%) (top driver: MOST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MOST made the numbers' call on 6 of 10WKU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:40WKU 4th & 3 at WKU 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:04MOST 4th & 3 at MOST 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:45WKU 4th & 13 at WKU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−0.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:55MOST 4th & 4 at MOST 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:01WKU 4th & 23 at MOST 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−0.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:55MOST 4th & 10 at WKU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.4%
    54% to make
    Punt
    46.0%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:31MOST 4th & 3 at MOST 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:43WKU 4th & 8 at MOST 8, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    51.3%−5.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:31MOST 4th & 2 at WKU 5, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.9%−1.5
    92% to make
    Punt
    30.0%−8.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:11WKU 4th & 10 at WKU 13, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−2.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:59MOST 4th & 2 at WKU 2, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.6%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    35.8%−8.0
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:27WKU 4th & 5 at MOST 47, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    55.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:11MOST 4th & 4 at WKU 35, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    48.8%−2.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    47.0%−4.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:48MOST 4th & 7 at MOST 43, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−1.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:21WKU 4th & 1 at MOST 1, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.5%−3.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    67.3%−12.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:37MOST 4th & 7 at MOST 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:43WKU 4th & 17 at WKU 13, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%−4.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:43MOST 4th & 1 at WKU 43, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    11.3%−4.0
    28% to make
    Punt
    11.9%−3.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MOST made the numbers' call on 1 of 2WKU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 13:56WKU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 12:16MOST Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:29WKU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:16WKU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:13MOST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    22.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    22.0%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WKUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:1563% → 63%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+21
36.7%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Noah Meyers for 21 yds to the WKU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
36.7%
Marvis Parrish run for 6 yds to the WKU 42Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
36.7%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Marvis Parrish for 3 yds to the WKU 45Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-2
36.7%
Marvis Parrish run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKU 43Similar
Q1 12:40
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
37.5%
Cole Maynard punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dash Luke at the MOST 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:3638% → 38%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
37.6%
Shomari Lawrence run for 3 yds to the MOST 17Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+18
37.5%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 18 yds to the MOST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
37.6%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Ramone Green Jr. for 3 yds to the MOST 38Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+4
37.7%
Shomari Lawrence run for 4 yds to the MOST 42Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
37.7%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to James BlackStrainSimilar
Q1 10:04
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
38.4%
Stewart McDonald punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:1962% → 60%
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
38.5%
Maverick McIvor run for 8 yds to the WKU 28Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
38.2%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Cameron FlowersSimilar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+5
38.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun McIvor,Maverick pass incomplete deep right to Henry,Matthew thrown to MSU45 broken up by Dunbar,Jordan PENALTY MSU Offside (Brantley,Tim) 5 yards from WKU28 to WKU33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-8
38.3%
Maverick McIvor sacked by Kanye Young for a loss of 8 yards to the WKU 25Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 18
OWN 25
+5
38.5%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Cameron Flowers for 5 yds to the WKU 30Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 13
OWN 30
0
39.3%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Matthew HenrySimilar
Q1 7:45
4TH & 13
OWN 30
+8
39.6%
Cole Maynard punt for 56 yds , Dash Luke returns for 8 yds to the MOST 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:5039% → 39%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
39.1%
PENALTY MSU False Start (Hutchinson,Mark) 5 yards from MSU22 to MSU17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 15
OWN 17
0
39.1%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Dash LukeSimilar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+2
39.0%
Shomari Lawrence run for 12 yds Missouri State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jmariyae Robinson) to the MOST 19Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 13
OWN 19
+12
39.0%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Ronnel Johnson for 12 yds to the MOST 31Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 1
OWN 31
-3
39.1%
Shomari Lawrence run for a loss of 3 yards to the MOST 28Similar
Q1 5:55
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
39.1%
Stewart McDonald punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jairus Mack at the WKU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:5460% → 59%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+19
39.7%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Marvis Parrish for 19 yds to the WKU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
39.0%
Marvis Parrish run for 9 yds to the MOST 49Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+13
38.6%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Moussa Barry for 13 yds to the MOST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
38.7%
Maverick McIvor sacked by Ryan Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the MOST 41Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 15
OPP 41
+8
39.2%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Noah Meyers for 8 yds to the MOST 33Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 7
OPP 33
-15
38.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun McIvor,Maverick pass incomplete deep right to Henry,Matthew thrown to MSU10 PENALTY WKU Pass Interference (Henry,Matthew) 15 yards from MSU33 to MSU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 22
OPP 48
+5
39.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun McIvor,Maverick pass intercepted by Ford,Christian at MSU15, End Of Play PENALTY MSU Offside (Wesolak,DJ) 5 yards from MSU48 to MSU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 17
OPP 43
-15
39.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun McIvor,Maverick pass complete short middle to Burroughs,Quincy caught at MSU38, for 16 yards to the MSU27 (Ford,Christian) PENALTY WKU Personal Foul (Meyers,Noah) 15 yards from MSU43 to WKU42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 32
OWN 42
+9
39.8%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Quincy Burroughs for 9 yds to the MOST 49Similar
Q1 2:01
4TH & 23
OPP 49
0
41.0%
Cole Maynard punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 6FG
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:0641% → 44%
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+25
41.4%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Dash Luke for 25 yds to the MOST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+24
42.6%
Ramone Green Jr. run for 24 yds to the WKU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
43.2%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Shomari LawrenceSimilar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
43.1%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Jmariyae RobinsonSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
43.4%
Jacob Clark sacked by Harper Holloman for 0 yards to the WKU 31Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+49
43.5%
Yousef Obeid 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5957% → 63%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
43.3%
George Hart III run for 2 yds to the WKU 27Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+34
43.2%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Matthew Henry for 34 yds to the MOST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
37.4%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Noah Meyers for 39 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2539% → 38%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
38.6%
Shomari Lawrence run for 5 yds to the MOST 30Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
38.9%
Shomari Lawrence run for 2 yds to the MOST 32Similar
Q2 13:56
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
38.4%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Dash LukeSimilar
Q2 12:31
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
38.1%
Stewart McDonald punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WKU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9FG
10 plays · 56 yds · 3:4862% → 67%
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
38.1%
Marvis Parrish run for a loss of 4 yards to the WKU 32Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+31
39.0%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 16 yds to the MOST 48 for a 1ST down Missouri State Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Dylan Dixson) to the MOST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
37.1%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to La'Vell WrightSimilar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+13
37.2%
La'Vell Wright run for 13 yds to the MOST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
36.4%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to K.D. HutchinsonSimilar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+15
36.7%
La'Vell Wright run for 15 yds to the MOST 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
36.4%
George Hart III run for a loss of 3 yards to the MOST 12Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+2
36.6%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Cameron Flowers for 2 yds to the MOST 10Similar
Q2 12:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
37.4%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to George Hart III for 2 yds to the MOST 8Similar
Q2 8:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
33.5%
John Cannon 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 10FG
13 plays · 70 yds · 5:1235% → 38%
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
34.8%
Ramone Green Jr. run for 18 yds to the MOST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
36.4%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Ronnel JohnsonSimilar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+19
35.8%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Ronnel Johnson for 19 yds to the WKU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
37.4%
Shomari Lawrence run for 3 yds to the WKU 35Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+8
38.2%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Dillon Hipp for 8 yds to the WKU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
38.2%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Jmariyae RobinsonSimilar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+14
38.1%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Tristian Gardner for 14 yds to the WKU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
38.2%
Ramone Green Jr. run for 5 yds to the WKU 8Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+3
38.2%
Jacob Clark run for 3 yds to the WKU 5Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 2
OPP 5
0
37.3%
Shomari Lawrence run for no gain to the WKU 5Similar
Q2 3:31
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+22
38.0%
Yousef Obeid 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 1:1461% → 61%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
38.6%
K.D. Hutchinson run for no gain to the WKU 13Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+5
38.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun McIvor,Maverick pass complete short middle to Meyers,Noah caught at WKU15, for 6 yards to the WKU19 (Lloyd,Jared; Ford,Christian) PENALTY MSU Offside (Townley,Davon) 5 yards from WKU13 to WKU18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 5
OWN 18
0
38.6%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Marvis ParrishSimilar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 5
OWN 18
0
39.5%
Maverick McIvor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:25
4TH & 5
OWN 18
-5
40.6%
PENALTY WKU False Start (Malone,Miller) 5 yards from WKU18 to WKU13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:11
4TH & 10
OWN 13
+19
39.5%
Cole Maynard punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line , Dash Luke returns for 19 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 12FG
7 plays · 48 yds · 1:1238% → 41%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
50
+44
38.2%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Dash Luke for 44 yds to the WKU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
42.9%
Shomari Lawrence run for a loss of 3 yards to the WKU 9Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-6
42.9%
Shomari Lawrence run for a loss of 6 yards to the WKU 15Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+13
39.4%
Jacob Clark run for 13 yds to the WKU 2Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
40.6%
Yousef Obeid 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 13DOWNS
6 plays · 28 yds · 0:3259% → 60%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
40.6%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Matthew Henry for 23 yds to the WKU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
38.4%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to George Hart III for 5 yds to the MOST 47Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
37.5%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to K.D. HutchinsonSimilar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 5
OPP 47
0
38.0%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Jairus MackSimilar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
40.1%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Matthew HenrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 14MISSED FG
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:2742% → 45%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
42.0%
Deuce Bailey run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down Western Kentucky Penalty, Defensive Holding (Matthew Henry) to the WKU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
42.8%
Deuce Bailey run for 10 yds to the WKU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
44.2%
Deuce Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
44.1%
Deuce Bailey pass incomplete to Jmariyae RobinsonSimilar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+5
44.3%
PENALTY WKU Offside (Holloman,Harper) 5 yards from WKU30 to WKU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+43
44.6%
Yousef Obeid 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 15TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4444% → 64%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
44.0%
Shomari Lawrence run for 9 yds to the MOST 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+9
46.3%
Deuce Bailey pass complete to Ronnel Johnson for 9 yds to the MOST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
46.7%
Deuce Bailey run for 11 yds to the WKU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
47.7%
Deuce Bailey pass incomplete to Dash LukeSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-7
47.5%
Ramone Green Jr. run for 3 yds Missouri State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dash Luke) to the MOST 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 47
+21
44.8%
Shomari Lawrence run for 21 yds to the WKU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
63.8%
Shomari Lawrence run for 32 yds for a TD (Yousef Obeid KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 16TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:4742% → 61%
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.9%
Marvis Parrish run for no gain to the WKU 25Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
58.1%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Marvis Parrish for 7 yds to the WKU 32Similar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
57.9%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Matthew Henry for 4 yds to the WKU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
56.8%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Matthew Henry for 6 yds to the WKU 42Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
55.0%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Noah MeyersSimilar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+6
55.6%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Matthew Henry for 6 yds to the WKU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
54.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun McIvor,Maverick pass incomplete deep middle to Flowers,Cameron thrown to MSU15 PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (Dixson,Dylan) 15 yards from WKU48 to MSU37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
54.3%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Quincy Burroughs for 5 yds to the MOST 32Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+3
52.4%
Marvis Parrish run for 3 yds to the MOST 29Similar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+13
54.0%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to La'Vell Wright for 13 yds to the MOST 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
52.4%
La'Vell Wright run for 8 yds to the MOST 8Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+6
52.4%
La'Vell Wright run for 6 yds to the MOST 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
39.1%
La'Vell Wright run for 2 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 17DOWNS
9 plays · 40 yds · 3:1846% → 48%
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
45.9%
Ramone Green Jr. run for 6 yds to the MOST 31Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
48.5%
Deuce Bailey pass incomplete to Ronnel JohnsonSimilar
Q3 5:51
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
45.4%
Deuce Bailey pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 8 yds to the MOST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+20
47.9%
Deuce Bailey run for 20 yds to the WKU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
50.9%
Deuce Bailey pass incomplete to Brendon McQueenSimilar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+1
50.8%
Ramone Green Jr. run for 1 yd to the WKU 40Similar
Q3 5:51
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+5
49.7%
Deuce Bailey pass complete to Brendon McQueen for 5 yds to the WKU 35Similar
Q3 3:11
4TH & 4
OPP 35
0
48.4%
Deuce Bailey pass incomplete to Jmariyae RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 1:5557% → 81%
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+26
43.5%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Cameron Flowers for 26 yds to the MOST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
40.6%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Quincy Burroughs for 14 yds to the MOST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
38.8%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Marvis Parrish for 8 yds to the MOST 17Similar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+17
19.3%
La'Vell Wright run for 17 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:2224% → 22%
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
24.4%
Deuce Bailey pass complete to Dash Luke for 2 yds to the MOST 25Similar
Q3 0:34
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+15
22.9%
Shotgun Bailey,Deuce pass incomplete deep right to Luke,Dash thrown to WKU50 broken up by Emery,Jalen PENALTY WKU Roughing The Passer (Brackenridge,Anthony) 15 yards from MSU25 to MSU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
25.6%
Deuce Bailey pass incomplete to Jmariyae RobinsonSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
24.2%
Shomari Lawrence run for 3 yds to the MOST 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
23.5%
Deuce Bailey pass incomplete to Ramone Green Jr.Similar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
22.2%
Stewart McDonald punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 20FG
7 plays · 79 yds · 2:2778% → 84%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
21.6%
K.D. Hutchinson run for 20 yds to the WKU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
19.0%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 17 yds to the MOST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+36
18.4%
George Hart III run for 36 yds to the MOST 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
17.5%
La'Vell Wright run for 6 yds to the MOST 1Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
17.5%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Noah MeyersSimilar
Q4 14:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
18.3%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to K.D. HutchinsonSimilar
Q4 12:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
15.8%
John Cannon 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4416% → 12%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.0%
Deuce Bailey pass incomplete to Jeron AskrenSimilar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
15.8%
Shomari Lawrence run for a loss of 4 yards to the MOST 21Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+7
15.1%
Deuce Bailey run for 7 yds to the MOST 28Similar
Q4 10:37
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
12.0%
Stewart McDonald punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:5487% → 88%
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
13.3%
Marvis Parrish run for 2 yds to the WKU 22Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+1
13.4%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Marvis Parrish for 1 yd to the WKU 23Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-10
13.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun McIvor,Maverick pass complete short right to Hutchinson,K.D. caught at WKU38, for 15 yards to the WKU38, out of bounds at WKU38 PENALTY WKU Holding (Jenkins,Quincy) 10 yards from WKU23 to WKU13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 17
OWN 13
0
14.0%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Matthew HenrySimilar
Q4 8:43
4TH & 17
OWN 13
+12
12.5%
Cole Maynard punt for 51 yds , Dash Luke returns for 12 yds to the MOST 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 23TD
12 plays · 52 yds · 4:3015% → 32%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
14.8%
Shomari Lawrence run for no gain to the MOST 48Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
14.4%
Deuce Bailey pass complete to Ronnel Johnson for 9 yds to the WKU 43Similar
Q4 8:43
3RD & 1
OPP 43
0
16.1%
Deuce Bailey pass incomplete to Shomari LawrenceSimilar
Q4 8:43
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+3
14.5%
Deuce Bailey run for 3 yds to the WKU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
15.8%
Deuce Bailey run for 11 yds to the WKU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+22
17.2%
Deuce Bailey pass complete to Ronnel Johnson for 15 yds to the WKU 14 for a 1ST down Western Kentucky Penalty, Personal Foul (Mackavelli Malotumau) to the WKU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
17.2%
Jmariyae Robinson run for 2 yds to the WKU 5Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
17.2%
Deuce Bailey run for a loss of 4 yards to the WKU 9Similar
Q4 4:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
30.3%
Deuce Bailey pass complete to Tristian Gardner for 9 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
Q4 4:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
32.4%
Bailey,Deuce pass attempt failed PENALTY WKU Holding offsetting MSU Holding offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
32.4%
Bailey,Deuce pass attempt failed PENALTY WKU Holding offsetting MSU Holding offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 24END OF GAME
13 plays · 39 yds · 4:1383% → 97%
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
16.6%
Marvis Parrish run for 5 yds to the WKU 30Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
16.0%
Marvis Parrish run for 1 yd to the WKU 31Similar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+11
17.3%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 11 yds to the WKU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
14.5%
La'Vell Wright run for 14 yds to the MOST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
7.0%
La'Vell Wright run for 6 yds to the MOST 38Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+4
6.1%
La'Vell Wright run for 4 yds to the MOST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
4.5%
M. McIvor takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 35
-1
3.4%
M. McIvor takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:16
La'Vell Wright run for 17 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
-19.5
TD · Q3 12:16
Shomari Lawrence run for 32 yds for a TD (Yousef Obeid KICK)
+19
TD · Q3 6:29
La'Vell Wright run for 2 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
-13.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com