Try the model
LT

Louisiana Tech 30 at UTEP 11

UTEP
2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Sun Bowl
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UTEP
modelUTEP aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playUTEP scoreLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:24 · Noah Botsford punt for 39 yds , Dedrick Latulas returns for 12 yds to the LT 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+53.5+26.80−26.8−53.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 32Home team on offense−2.1Score differential−0.5Garbage-time factor−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Pregame prior−3.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:14: Blake Baker pass complete to Marques Singleton Jr. for 5 yds for a TD (Drew Henderson KICK) — LT win probability +3.1 pts (now 56%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 5:47: Drew Henderson 37 yd FG GOOD — LT win probability +3.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 14:55: Tanner Cragun 38 yd FG GOOD — UTEP win probability +5.5 pts (now 33%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:22: Malachi Nelson pass intercepted Jakari Foster return for 67 yds for a TD (Drew Henderson KICK) — LT win probability +23.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:34: Skyler Locklear pass complete to Wondame Davis Jr. for 35 yds for a TD (Josh Schuchts pass to for Two-Point Conversion) — UTEP win probability +3.7 pts (now 4%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTEP made the numbers' call on 9 of 12LT made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 5:24UTEP 4th & 8 at UTEP 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:24UTEP 4th & 8 at UTEP 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:57LT 4th & 9 at LT 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:26UTEP 4th & 4 at UTEP 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.0%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:26UTEP 4th & 4 at UTEP 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.0%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:02UTEP 4th & 4 at UTEP 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:41LT 4th & 5 at LT 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:43UTEP 4th & 8 at UTEP 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:43UTEP 4th & 8 at UTEP 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:42LT 4th & 17 at LT 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−2.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:10UTEP 4th & 9 at LT 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    36.1%−1.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:41LT 4th & 1 at LT 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    65.5%−2.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:07LT 4th & 5 at LT 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:47LT 4th & 3 at UTEP 19, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.4%−0.8
    77% to make
    Punt
    61.8%−9.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:55UTEP 4th & 9 at LT 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    15.1%−7.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:45LT 4th & 8 at LT 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%−2.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:13UTEP 4th & 7 at UTEP 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−1.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:24UTEP 4th & 7 at UTEP 28, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:24UTEP 4th & 8 at UTEP 40, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.1%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.3%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:53LT 4th & 20 at LT 44, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−0.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTEP made the numbers' call on 0 of 1LT made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 6:14LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 10:22LT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−0.5
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 4:58LT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:34UTEP Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    3.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:44LT Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    98.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTEPDrive 1INT
14 plays · 47 yds · 4:1146% → 48%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
46.4%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Hahsaun Wilson for 4 yds to the UTEP 29Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
46.5%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Kenny Odom for no gain to the UTEP 29Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
46.6%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Kenny Odom for 6 yds to the UTEP 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
46.8%
Malachi Nelson run for 3 yds to the UTEP 38Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
47.0%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the UTEP 40Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+8
47.1%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 8 yds to the UTEP 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
47.5%
Malachi Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
47.4%
(11:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Nelson,Malachi pass incomplete short middle to Williams,Darnell thrown to LATECH36 PENALTY LATECH Offside (Sims,Caleb) 5 yards from UTEP48 to LATECH47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
47.6%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Trevon TateSimilar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+12
47.5%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 12 yds to the LT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
47.8%
Malachi Nelson run for 6 yds to the LT 29Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+1
48.0%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Josh Schuchts for 1 yd to the LT 28Similar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 3
OPP 28
-5
47.9%
Malachi Nelson pass intercepted Sifa Leota return for 5 yds to the LT 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2TD
13 plays · 60 yds · 4:1953% → 56%
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
47.0%
Blake Baker pass incomplete to Eli FinleySimilar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
47.2%
Blake Baker pass complete to Jalen Mickens for 2 yds to the LT 42Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+11
47.4%
(10:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Baker,Blake pass incomplete short middle to Singleton Jr.,Marques thrown to UTEP40 broken up by Smith,Xavier, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UTEP Pass Interference (Content,Justin) 11 yard from LATECH42 to UTEP47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
47.0%
Blake Baker run for 5 yds to the UTEP 42Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 5
OPP 42
0
47.0%
Blake Baker run for no gain to the UTEP 42Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+5
47.1%
Blake Baker pass complete to Marques Singleton Jr. for 5 yds to the UTEP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
47.1%
Blake Baker pass incomplete to Devin GandySimilar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+10
47.1%
Blake Baker pass complete to Dedrick Latulas for 10 yds to the UTEP 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
46.8%
Blake Baker run for 8 yds to the UTEP 19Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+14
46.8%
(07:03) No Huddle-Shotgun Baker,Blake pass incomplete short middle to Gandy,Devin thrown to UTEP02, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UTEP Pass Interference (Campbell,Neil) 14 yards from UTEP19 to UTEP05, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
46.8%
Omiri Wiggins run for no gain to the UTEP 5Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
43.7%
Blake Baker pass complete to Marques Singleton Jr. for 5 yds for a TD (Drew Henderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:4444% → 44%
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
44.4%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the UTEP 27Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
44.4%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Josh SchuchtsSimilar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
43.8%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Jaylan BrownSimilar
Q1 5:24
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+12
43.6%
Noah Botsford punt for 39 yds , Dedrick Latulas returns for 12 yds to the LT 46Similar
Q1 5:24
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+12
43.6%
Noah Botsford punt for 39 yds , Dedrick Latulas returns for 12 yds to the LT 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2156% → 55%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-4
44.2%
Blake Baker sacked by Cole Gustafson for a loss of 4 yards to the LT 19Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 14
OWN 19
+5
44.3%
Clay Thevenin run for 5 yds to the LT 24Similar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 9
OWN 24
0
44.3%
Blake Baker pass incomplete to David PierroSimilar
Q1 3:57
4TH & 9
OWN 24
+13
44.6%
John Hoyet Chance punt for 47 yds , Eric Willis III returns for 13 yds to the UTEP 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 5DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2545% → 44%
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
44.8%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Eric Willis IIISimilar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
44.4%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Trevon Tate for 2 yds to the UTEP 44Similar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+4
43.9%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Trevon Tate for 4 yds to the UTEP 48Similar
Q1 2:26
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
43.7%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Trevon TateSimilar
Q1 2:26
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
43.7%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Trevon TateSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6INT
6 plays · 42 yds · 2:2558% → 59%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
42.0%
Blake Baker run for 5 yds to the UTEP 43Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+2
41.7%
Blake Baker pass complete to Dedrick Latulas for 2 yds to the UTEP 41Similar
Q1 1:18
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+27
41.6%
Blake Baker pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 27 yds to the UTEP 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
41.0%
Omiri Wiggins run for 9 yds to the UTEP 5Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 5
-1
40.7%
Blake Baker run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 6Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 2
OPP 6
0
40.9%
Blake Baker pass intercepted, touchback. Justin Content return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4843% → 41%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
42.6%
Shay Smith run for 2 yds to the UTEP 22Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
42.4%
Shay Smith run for 4 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
42.1%
Hahsaun Wilson run for no gain to the UTEP 26Similar
Q2 13:02
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
41.2%
Noah Botsford punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dedrick Latulas at the LT 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1559% → 58%
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
41.3%
Clay Thevenin run for no gain to the LT 31Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
41.5%
Blake Baker pass incomplete to Devin GandySimilar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+5
42.2%
Blake Baker pass complete to Devin Gandy for 5 yds to the LT 36Similar
Q2 11:41
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
41.7%
John Hoyet Chance punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:4842% → 40%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
41.9%
Ashten Emory run for 1 yd to the UTEP 13Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+10
41.7%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Ashten Emory for 10 yds to the UTEP 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
41.8%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Kenny OdomSimilar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+2
41.6%
Ashten Emory run for 2 yds to the UTEP 25Similar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
40.5%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Wondame Davis Jr.Similar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 8
OWN 25
+21
40.3%
Noah Botsford punt for 58 yds , Dedrick Latulas returns for 21 yds to the LT 38Similar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 8
OWN 25
+21
40.3%
Noah Botsford punt for 58 yds , Dedrick Latulas returns for 21 yds to the LT 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:4959% → 60%
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
41.1%
Blake Baker pass complete to Marques Singleton Jr. for 9 yds to the LT 18Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+6
40.1%
Omiri Wiggins run for 6 yds to the LT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
40.3%
Omiri Wiggins run for no gain to the LT 24Similar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
40.6%
Blake Baker pass incomplete to Marques Singleton Jr.Similar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 10
OWN 24
-7
41.2%
Blake Baker sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the LT 17Similar
Q2 7:42
4TH & 17
OWN 17
0
40.5%
John Hoyet Chance punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Eric Willis III at the UTEP 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:2642% → 39%
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
41.5%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 5 yds to the UTEP 46Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+7
41.8%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Josh Schuchts for 7 yds to the LT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
42.3%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Hahsaun WilsonSimilar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-1
41.8%
Hahsaun Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 48Similar
Q2 5:51
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+2
40.4%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Hahsaun Wilson for 2 yds to the LT 46Similar
Q2 5:10
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
39.3%
Malachi Nelson punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12FUMBLE
15 plays · 44 yds · 5:0262% → 69%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
38.1%
Clay Thevenin run for 4 yds to the LT 24Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+10
37.2%
Blake Baker pass complete to Devin Gandy for 10 yds to the LT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
36.6%
Clay Thevenin run for 2 yds to the LT 36Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+10
36.2%
Blake Baker pass complete to Dane Benedix for 10 yds to the LT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
34.2%
Blake Baker run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 6
50
+7
33.2%
Clay Thevenin run for 7 yds to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-4
32.3%
Clay Thevenin run for a loss of 4 yards to the UTEP 47Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 14
OPP 47
+12
33.3%
Blake Baker pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 12 yds to the UTEP 35Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+8
31.5%
Omiri Wiggins run for 8 yds to the UTEP 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
31.0%
Blake Baker run for 2 yds to the UTEP 25Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+2
30.8%
Blake Baker pass complete to Dane Benedix for 2 yds to the UTEP 23Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 6
OPP 23
-13
31.1%
Blake Baker sacked by Udoka Ezeani for a loss of 13 yards to the LT 30 Blake Baker fumbled, recovered by LT Jayden Wilson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 6
OPP 23
-13
31.1%
Blake Baker sacked by Udoka Ezeani for a loss of 13 yards to the LT 30 Blake Baker fumbled, recovered by LT Jayden Wilson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 13MISSED FG
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+47
45.1%
Carlos Arreola 47 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Kameron CarterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14FUMBLE
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:0964% → 66%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
35.6%
Blake Baker pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 5 yds to the LT 30Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
34.7%
Omiri Wiggins run for 7 yds to the LT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
34.3%
Omiri Wiggins run for 4 yds to the LT 41Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
33.3%
Blake Baker pass incomplete to Devin GandySimilar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+5
33.6%
Blake Baker pass complete to Marques Singleton Jr. for 5 yds to the LT 46Similar
Q3 12:41
4TH & 1
OWN 46
-9
34.5%
Blake Baker sacked by Udoka Ezeani for a loss of 9 yards to the LT 37 Blake Baker fumbled, recovered by LT Micah Davey , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 15INT
3 plays · 17 yds · 1:0940% → 42%
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
40.4%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Josh Schuchts for 2 yds to the LT 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
41.6%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Kenny OdomSimilar
Q3 11:23
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+8
41.6%
Malachi Nelson pass intercepted Kolbe Fields return for a loss of 8 yards to the LT 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 3:0965% → 66%
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+13
35.4%
Clay Thevenin run for 13 yds to the LT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
34.7%
Blake Baker pass complete to Marques Singleton Jr. for 9 yds to the LT 28Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+3
33.0%
Clay Thevenin run for 3 yds to the LT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
33.5%
Clay Thevenin run for 1 yd to the LT 32Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+4
33.6%
Clay Thevenin run for 4 yds to the LT 36Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 5
OWN 36
0
33.7%
Blake Baker pass incomplete to Omiri WigginsSimilar
Q3 8:07
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
34.2%
John Hoyet Chance punt for 42 yds , Eric Willis III returns for no gain to the UTEP 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 17INT
3 plays · -10 yds · 0:2434% → 34%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-10
34.3%
(08:05) No Huddle-Shotgun Wilson,Hahsaun rush right for 5 yards gain to the UTEP27 (Shelby Jr.,Jhamal), out of bounds PENALTY UTEP Holding (Immediato,Joseph) 10 yards from UTEP22 to UTEP12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 20
OWN 12
0
33.9%
Malachi Nelson pass intercepted Michael Richard return for no gain to the UTEP 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4471% → 74%
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
28.7%
Omiri Wiggins run for 2 yds to the UTEP 24Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+1
28.6%
Omiri Wiggins run for 1 yd to the UTEP 23Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+4
29.4%
Clay Thevenin run for 4 yds to the UTEP 19Similar
Q3 5:47
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+37
26.0%
Drew Henderson 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 19FG
16 plays · 54 yds · 5:4326% → 33%
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
26.0%
Marquez Taylor run for 4 yds to the UTEP 29Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
26.3%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Marquez Taylor for 7 yds to the UTEP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
26.3%
Marquez Taylor run for 7 yds to the UTEP 43Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+8
27.3%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Eric Willis III for 8 yds to the LT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
27.8%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Eric Willis III for 5 yds to the LT 44Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+3
27.9%
Marquez Taylor run for 3 yds to the LT 41Similar
Q3 3:08
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+6
27.7%
Ashten Emory run for 6 yds to the LT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
31.5%
Ashten Emory run for 4 yds to the LT 31Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+2
31.5%
Ashten Emory run for 2 yds to the LT 29Similar
Q3 1:43
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+7
29.1%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Trevon Tate for 7 yds Trevon Tate fumbled, recovered by LT Trevon Tate for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
31.2%
Ashten Emory run for a loss of 2 yards to the LT 24Similar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 12
OPP 24
+2
30.4%
Ashten Emory run for 2 yds to the LT 22Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+1
27.9%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Marquez Taylor for 1 yd to the LT 21Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 9
OPP 21
+38
33.4%
Tanner Cragun 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4775% → 73%
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
25.3%
Clay Thevenin run for 1 yd to the LT 31Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 9
OWN 31
-9
25.4%
Blake Baker sacked by Ekow Taylor for a loss of 9 yards to the LT 22Similar
Q4 13:28
3RD & 18
OWN 22
+10
27.4%
Blake Baker pass complete to David Pierro for 10 yds to the LT 32Similar
Q4 12:45
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
27.2%
John Hoyet Chance punt for 68 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:2129% → 24%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
29.0%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Kenny Odom for 2 yds to the UTEP 22Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+1
28.9%
Marquez Taylor run for 1 yd to the UTEP 23Similar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
24.7%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Kenny OdomSimilar
Q4 11:13
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
23.9%
Noah Botsford punt for 46 yds , Dedrick Latulas returns for no gain to the LT 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 22FUMBLE
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:3577% → 78%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
23.5%
Blake Baker pass complete to Devin Gandy for 2 yds to the LT 31Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+7
22.4%
Blake Baker pass complete to Jalen Mickens for 7 yds Jalen Mickens fumbled, recovered by LT Solo BarnesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 23INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0530% → 7%
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
29.9%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Trevon TateSimilar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-67
6.6%
Malachi Nelson pass intercepted Jakari Foster return for 67 yds for a TD (Drew Henderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 24DOWNS
10 plays · 17 yds · 1:435% → 4%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
5.4%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Kenny Odom for 3 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
5.7%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Kenny OdomSimilar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
5.4%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Kenny OdomSimilar
Q4 9:24
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+10
4.6%
Malachi Nelson run for 10 yds to the UTEP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
5.0%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Eric Willis IIISimilar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
4.9%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Marcus TorresSimilar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+2
4.0%
Marquez Taylor run for 2 yds to the UTEP 40Similar
Q4 8:24
4TH & 8
OWN 40
+2
3.7%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Marcus Torres for 2 yds to the UTEP 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 25TD
7 plays · 42 yds · 3:1997% → 100%
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
2.6%
Clay Thevenin run for 14 yds to the UTEP 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
2.3%
Clay Thevenin run for 8 yds to the UTEP 20Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 2
OPP 20
-4
2.1%
Clay Thevenin run for a loss of 4 yards to the UTEP 24Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+9
1.9%
Blake Baker run for 9 yds to the UTEP 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
1.8%
UTEP Penalty, Face Mask (5 yards) (Ashton Coker) to the UTEP 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.4%
Clay Thevenin run for 4 yds for a TD (Drew Henderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 26TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:140% → 4%
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.4%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Eric Willis III for 5 yds to the UTEP 30Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+23
0.4%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Wondame Davis Jr. for 23 yds to the LT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
0.4%
Ashten Emory run for 12 yds to the LT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
4.1%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Wondame Davis Jr. for 35 yds for a TD (Josh Schuchts pass to for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · -10 yds · 1:3599% → 99%
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
1.5%
Clay Thevenin run for 2 yds to the UTEP 44Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
1.4%
Blake Baker run for no gain to the UTEP 44Similar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 8
OPP 44
-10
1.3%
(02:40) No Huddle-Shotgun Thevenin,Clay rush right for 7 yards gain to the UTEP37 (Russell,Lantz; Smith,Xavier) PENALTY LATECH Holding (Brackins III,Roy) 10 yards from UTEP44 to LATECH46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:06
3RD & 18
OWN 46
-2
1.4%
Clay Thevenin run for a loss of 2 yards to the LT 44Similar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 20
OWN 44
0
1.0%
John Hoyet Chance punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Eric Willis III at the UTEP 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 28INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-23
0.5%
Skyler Locklear pass intercepted Alonzo Jackson Jr. return for 23 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 29END OF GAME
8 plays · 30 yds · 1:401% → 0%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.5%
Skyler Locklear pass incomplete to Wondame Davis Jr.Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
0.4%
Ashten Emory run for 8 yds to the UTEP 33Similar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+13
0.4%
Ashten Emory run for 13 yds to the UTEP 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
0.4%
Ashten Emory run for 2 yds to the UTEP 48Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 8
OWN 48
-10
0.5%
(00:50) Shotgun Locklear,Skyler pass complete short right to Wilson,Hahsaun caught at UTEP46, for 3 yards to the LATECH49 (Mayfield,Jadon; Jackson Jr.,Alonzo) PENALTY UTEP Holding (Immediato,Joseph) 10 yards from UTEP48 to UTEP38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:11
2ND & 18
OWN 38
+6
0.4%
Skyler Locklear run for 6 yds to the UTEP 44Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 44
+11
0.4%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Josh Schuchts for 11 yds to the LT 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:22
Malachi Nelson pass intercepted Jakari Foster return for 67 yds for a TD (Drew Henderson KICK)
-23.3
FG · Q4 14:55
Tanner Cragun 38 yd FG GOOD
+5.5
TD · Q4 3:34
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Wondame Davis Jr. for 35 yds for a TD (Josh Schuchts pass to for Two-Point Conversion)
+3.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com