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JXST

Jacksonville State 25 at Southern Miss 42

USM
2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadJXST aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreJXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:19 · Braylon Braxton run for 6 yds to the JXST 33 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 100Home team on offense+11.8Pregame prior+7.7Score differential+2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.7Garbage-time factor+4.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:38: Jeffery Pittman run for 3 yds for a TD (Creighton Wilbanks KICK) — USM win probability +3.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:52: Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kadinn Morris for 6 yds for a TD (Creighton Wilbanks KICK) — USM win probability +4.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:52: Timeout Southern Miss, clock 05:52 — JXST win probability +3.3 pts (now 5%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:33: Caden Creel pass complete to Brock Rechsteiner for 4 yds for a TD (C. Creel Run For Two-point Conversion) — JXST win probability +5.9 pts (now 11%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:23: Timeout Southern Miss, clock 07:23 — USM win probability +3.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 7 of 8JXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 12:52USM 4th & 8 at USM 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:55JXST 4th & 5 at USM 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    33.9%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:55JXST 4th & 5 at USM 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    33.9%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:45JXST 4th & 7 at USM 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    24.2%−3.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:48USM 4th & 8 at USM 27, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:28JXST 4th & 5 at USM 49, down 11
    Close callPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:34JXST 4th & 3 at USM 3, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    27.8%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    24.0%−4.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:39USM 4th & 5 at USM 41, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:18JXST 4th & 1 at JXST 47, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.4%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:19USM 4th & 1 at JXST 39, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    77.2%−1.4
    36% to make
    Punt
    76.8%−1.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:28JXST 4th & 8 at JXST 32, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−1.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:26USM 4th & 18 at USM 34, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%−2.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:22JXST 4th & 11 at JXST 32, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−2.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:43USM 4th & 3 at USM 49, up 24
    Close callPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:13USM 4th & 1 at midfield, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.0%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:00USM 4th & 4 at JXST 43, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    98.6%−0.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6JXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 11:14USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:38USM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:05USM Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:52USM Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:33JXST Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    5.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:55USM Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:23JXST Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:27USM Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:23JXST Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    1.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:0365% → 65%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
64.9%
Jeffery Pittman run for 5 yds to the USM 30Similar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
64.9%
Jeffery Pittman run for 5 yds to the USM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
64.9%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 5 yds to the USM 30Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+7
64.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kyirin Heath for 7 yds to the USM 37Similar
Q1 13:01
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
64.8%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Matt JonesSimilar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
64.7%
Reed Harradine punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 2FUMBLE
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-4
64.7%
Gavin Wimsatt sacked by JJ Hawkins for a loss of 4 yards to the JXST 25 Gavin Wimsatt fumbled, recovered by USM Ian Foster , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3TD
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:2465% → 66%
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
65.1%
Matt Jones run for 9 yds to the JXST 16Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+1
65.2%
Matt Jones run for 1 yd to the JXST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
65.2%
(11:41) No Huddle-Shotgun Braxton,Braylon pass incomplete short middle to Metcalf,Elijah thrown to JSU05 broken up by Nix,Caleb, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY JSU Pass Interference (Nix,Caleb) 13 yards from JSU15 to JSU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
65.2%
Jeffery Pittman run for 1 yd to the JXST 1Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.4%
Jeffery Pittman run for 1 yd for a TD (Creighton Wilbanks KICK)Similar
Q1 11:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
66.4%
Wilbanks,Creighton kick attempt good (H: McCormick,Kyle, LS: Beard,Luke) PENALTY USM Holding (Beard,Luke) USM Illegal Formation declined 10 yards from JSU03 to JSU13. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 4PUNT
12 plays · 30 yds · 3:1334% → 33%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
65.8%
Cam Cook run for 4 yds to the JXST 29Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
65.8%
Cam Cook run for no gain to the JXST 29Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
66.1%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Cam Cook for 7 yds to the JXST 36 for a 1ST down Southern Miss Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
65.9%
Cam Cook run for a loss of 1 yard to the JXST 35Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+15
66.1%
Cam Cook run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
50
+3
66.1%
Gavin Wimsatt run for 3 yds to the USM 47Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+2
66.2%
Cam Cook run for 2 yds to the USM 45Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
66.1%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete to Caleb CoombsSimilar
Q1 7:55
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
66.6%
Conor Donaghy punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q1 7:55
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
66.6%
Conor Donaghy punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:1168% → 72%
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
67.5%
Jeffery Pittman run for 9 yds to the USM 29Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+43
67.5%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Tychaun Chapman for 43 yds to the JXST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+25
68.2%
Jeffery Pittman run for 25 yds to the JXST 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
71.7%
Jeffery Pittman run for 3 yds for a TD (Creighton Wilbanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 6FG
17 plays · 57 yds · 5:4630% → 30%
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
69.7%
Jacksonville State Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the JXST 20Similar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-5
70.0%
Cam Cook run for a loss of 5 yards to the JXST 15Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 20
OWN 15
-7
70.5%
Gavin Wimsatt sacked by Jameer Lewis for a loss of 7 yards to the JXST 8Similar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 27
OWN 8
+29
71.4%
Gavin Wimsatt run for 14 yds to the JXST 22 for a 1ST down Southern Miss Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Ian Foster) to the JXST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
70.7%
Caden Creel run for 8 yds to the JXST 45Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 2
OWN 45
0
70.3%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete to Caleb CoombsSimilar
Q1 3:52
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+11
70.4%
Gavin Wimsatt run for 11 yds to the USM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
70.6%
Gavin Wimsatt run for 5 yds to the USM 39Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+7
70.8%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 7 yds to the USM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
70.6%
Cam Cook run for 5 yds to the USM 27Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+6
70.6%
Cam Cook run for 6 yds to the USM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
70.8%
Cam Cook run for 3 yds to the USM 18Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 7
OPP 18
0
71.0%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete to Caleb CoombsSimilar
Q1 0:46
3RD & 7
OPP 18
0
71.3%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete to Cam CookSimilar
Q1 0:45
4TH & 7
OPP 18
+35
69.6%
Garrison Rippa 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4975% → 75%
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.1%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Bralon BrownSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
75.6%
Matt Jones run for 2 yds to the USM 27Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
75.2%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Matt JonesSimilar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
74.8%
Reed Harradine punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:1330% → 29%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
70.1%
Caden Creel run for 2 yds to the JXST 35Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
70.3%
Caden Creel pass incomplete to Cam CookSimilar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+11
70.8%
Caden Creel pass complete to Cam Cook for 11 yds to the JXST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
70.1%
Caden Creel run for 3 yds to the JXST 49Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+2
70.1%
Khristian Lando run for 2 yds to the USM 49Similar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
70.3%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Pearson Baldwin for no gain to the USM 49Similar
Q2 12:28
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
70.9%
Conor Donaghy punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Elijah Metcalf at the USM 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9FUMBLE
7 plays · 5 yds · 2:2478% → 79%
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
77.6%
Jeffery Pittman run for 3 yds to the USM 13Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+9
77.8%
Matt Jones run for 9 yds to the USM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
78.5%
Matt Jones run for 5 yds to the USM 27Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+5
78.7%
Matt Jones run for 5 yds to the USM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
79.1%
Braylon Braxton run for 2 yds to the USM 34Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 8
OWN 34
-19
79.0%
Braylon Braxton sacked by Malcolm Jones for a loss of 19 yards to the USM 6 Braylon Braxton fumbled, recovered by JXST Malcolm Jones , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 10DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1528% → 26%
Q2 9:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
72.2%
Gavin Wimsatt run for a loss of 2 yards to the USM 8Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
72.4%
Cam Cook run for 4 yds to the USM 4Similar
Q2 8:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
73.4%
Cam Cook run for 1 yd to the USM 3 Cam Cook fumbled, recovered by JXSTSimilar
Q2 8:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
74.5%
Gavin Wimsatt run for 2 yds to the USM 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11PUNT
11 plays · 40 yds · 2:4480% → 81%
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+7
79.9%
Braylon Braxton run for 7 yds to the USM 8Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 3
OWN 8
+18
79.9%
Jeffery Pittman run for 3 yds to the USM 11 for a 1ST down Jacksonville State Penalty, Personal Foul (Emmanuel Oyebadejo) to the USM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
80.5%
Jeffery Pittman run for 1 yd to the USM 27Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+4
80.6%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Micah Davis for 4 yds to the USM 31Similar
Q2 6:51
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+5
80.5%
(06:56) No Huddle-Shotgun Braxton,Braylon pass incomplete deep left to Davis,Micah thrown to JSU29 PENALTY JSU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from USM31 to USM36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
81.5%
Jeffery Pittman run for 2 yds to the USM 38Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
81.8%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Bralon BrownSimilar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 8
OWN 38
-5
81.1%
PENALTY USM False Start (Slayden,Carlos) 5 yards from USM38 to USM33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:11
3RD & 13
OWN 33
+8
80.7%
Matt Jones run for 8 yds to the USM 41Similar
Q2 5:39
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
81.0%
Reed Harradine punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Gabe Glover at the JXST 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 12FUMBLE
11 plays · 35 yds · 3:3222% → 20%
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
77.8%
Caden Creel run for 5 yds to the JXST 18Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+6
78.0%
Caden Creel pass complete to Brock Rechsteiner for 6 yds to the JXST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
79.1%
Caden Creel pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 9 yds to the JXST 33Similar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+5
78.6%
Cam Cook run for 5 yds to the JXST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
78.9%
Caden Creel run for 3 yds to the JXST 41Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+4
79.0%
Caden Creel run for 4 yds to the JXST 45Similar
Q2 2:36
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+2
79.7%
Caden Creel run for 2 yds to the JXST 47Similar
Q2 2:18
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+2
80.5%
Cam Cook run for 2 yds to the JXST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
80.3%
Caden Creel run for a loss of 1 yard to the JXST 48 Caden Creel fumbled, recovered by USM Avery SledgeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13TD
13 plays · 48 yds · 1:4485% → 84%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
84.5%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Micah DavisSimilar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
84.4%
Braylon Braxton run for 3 yds to the JXST 45Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+6
83.7%
Braylon Braxton run for 6 yds to the JXST 39Similar
Q2 1:19
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+6
83.1%
Braylon Braxton run for 6 yds to the JXST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
84.6%
Braylon Braxton run for 8 yds to the JXST 25Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 2
OPP 25
0
84.1%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Matt JonesSimilar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+3
83.5%
Jeffery Pittman run for 3 yds to the JXST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
84.4%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Bralon Brown for 10 yds to the JXST 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
84.1%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Bralon BrownSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+6
84.5%
Jeffery Pittman run for 6 yds to the JXST 6Similar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+6
83.8%
Braylon Braxton run for 6 yds for a TD (Creighton Wilbanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:0513% → 13%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
87.4%
PENALTY JSU Delay Of Game (Creel,Caden) 5 yards from JSU25 to JSU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
87.5%
Caden Creel pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:1514% → 12%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
86.2%
Cam Cook run for no gain to the JXST 20Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
86.7%
Caden Creel run for 10 yds to the JXST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
86.1%
Caden Creel run for 2 yds to the JXST 32Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
86.4%
Caden Creel run for no gain to the JXST 32Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
87.4%
Caden Creel pass incomplete to Caleb CoombsSimilar
Q3 12:28
4TH & 8
OWN 32
+15
87.6%
Conor Donaghy punt for 41 yds , Elijah Metcalf returns for 15 yds to the USM 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 1:5390% → 89%
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
90.0%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 4 yds to the USM 38Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 14
OWN 38
+3
90.0%
Jeffery Pittman run for 3 yds to the USM 41Similar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 11
OWN 41
-2
90.1%
Braylon Braxton sacked by Malcolm Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the USM 39Similar
Q3 10:32
4TH & 13
OWN 39
-5
89.5%
PENALTY USM Delay Of Game (Harradine,Reed) 5 yards from USM39 to USM34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:26
4TH & 18
OWN 34
0
89.3%
Reed Harradine punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Gabe Glover at the JXST 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5913% → 11%
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
86.8%
Cam Cook run for 2 yds to the JXST 35Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 8
OWN 35
-3
88.3%
Caden Creel run for a loss of 3 yards to the JXST 32Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 11
OWN 32
0
89.5%
Caden Creel pass incomplete to Cam CookSimilar
Q3 9:22
4TH & 11
OWN 32
+7
89.5%
Conor Donaghy punt for 42 yds , Elijah Metcalf returns for 7 yds to the USM 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 3:2093% → 98%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+19
92.9%
Braylon Braxton run for 19 yds to the JXST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
93.3%
Jeffery Pittman run for 5 yds to the JXST 43Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+6
93.5%
Matt Jones run for 6 yds to the JXST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
93.7%
PENALTY USM Illegal Snap (Posey,Jeramie) 5 yards from JSU37 to JSU42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+5
93.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Matt Jones for 5 yds to the JXST 37Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+27
93.9%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Matt Jones for 27 yds to the JXST 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
94.0%
Jeffery Pittman run for 4 yds to the JXST 6Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
98.2%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kadinn Morris for 6 yds for a TD (Creighton Wilbanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 19TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:025% → 11%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+73
94.6%
Caden Creel run for 73 yds to the USM 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
94.6%
(05:23) PENALTY JSU False Start (Griffin,Cameron) 5 yards from USM02 to USM07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
95.3%
Cam Cook run for 3 yds to the USM 4Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
89.5%
Caden Creel pass complete to Brock Rechsteiner for 4 yds for a TD (C. Creel Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2895% → 99%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
95.3%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Micah Davis for 30 yds to the JXST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
96.6%
Jeffery Pittman run for a loss of 2 yards to the JXST 47Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+3
96.7%
Jeffery Pittman run for 3 yds to the JXST 44Similar
Q3 2:34
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+14
96.9%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Bralon Brown for 14 yds to the JXST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+17
97.1%
Elijah Metcalf run for 17 yds to the JXST 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
99.1%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Carl Chester for 13 yds for a TD Jacksonville State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Caleb Nix) declined (Creighton Wilbanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 21INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:092% → 2%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
97.8%
Caden Creel run for 8 yds to the JXST 33Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
97.6%
Caden Creel pass incomplete to Brock RechsteinerSimilar
Q3 1:06
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
97.9%
Caden Creel run for 4 yds to the JXST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
97.8%
Caden Creel pass intercepted Josh Moten return for no gain to the USM 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:1799% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
99.3%
Jaylin Carter run for 12 yds to the USM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
99.3%
Jaylin Carter run for 6 yds to the USM 48Similar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+1
99.4%
Jaylin Carter run for 1 yd to the USM 49Similar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
99.5%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Kadinn MorrisSimilar
Q4 13:43
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
99.5%
Reed Harradine punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the JXST 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 23TD
18 plays · 89 yds · 6:121% → 4%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
98.7%
Cam Cook run for no gain to the JXST 11Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+5
98.7%
Cam Cook run for 5 yds to the JXST 16Similar
Q4 12:24
3RD & 5
OWN 16
+6
98.8%
Caden Creel run for 6 yds to the JXST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-9
98.8%
Caden Creel sacked by Ian Foster for a loss of 9 yards to the JXST 13Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 19
OWN 13
+9
98.9%
Caden Creel pass complete to Brock Rechsteiner for 9 yds to the JXST 22Similar
Q4 11:02
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+22
98.9%
Caden Creel run for 12 yds to the JXST 34 for a 1ST down Southern Miss Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ahmere Foster) to the JXST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
98.9%
Caden Creel pass incomplete to Caleb CoombsSimilar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
98.9%
Caden Creel pass complete to Pearson Baldwin for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 4
50
+8
99.0%
Caden Creel run for 8 yds to the USM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+20
98.9%
Caden Creel run for 20 yds to the USM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
98.8%
Caden Creel pass complete to Pearson Baldwin for 5 yds to the USM 17Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+9
98.9%
Cam Cook run for 9 yds to the USM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
98.9%
Cam Cook run for 3 yds to the USM 5Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
96.3%
Caden Creel run for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
Q4 7:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
96.3%
Creel,Caden pass attempt failed PENALTY USM Pass Interference (King,Dylan) 1 yard from USM03 to USM02. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24DOWNS
14 plays · 32 yds · 5:15100% → 100%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.5%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 2 yds to the USM 27Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
99.6%
Jaylin Carter run for 7 yds to the USM 34Similar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
99.6%
Jaylin Carter run for 7 yds to the USM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
99.6%
Jaylin Carter run for 5 yds to the USM 46Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+3
99.6%
Jaylin Carter run for 3 yds to the USM 49Similar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+1
99.6%
Jaylin Carter run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:13
4TH & 1
50
+1
99.7%
Braylon Braxton run for 1 yd to the JXST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.7%
Jaylin Carter run for no gain to the JXST 49Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+2
99.8%
Jaylin Carter run for 2 yds to the JXST 47Similar
Q4 2:08
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+4
99.8%
Braylon Braxton run for 4 yds to the JXST 43Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
99.7%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 25INT TD
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:261% → 0%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
98.9%
Caden Creel sacked by Jameer Lewis for a loss of 3 yards to the JXST 40Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 13
OWN 40
-49
99.8%
Caden Creel pass intercepted Ian Foster return for 49 yds for a TD (Creighton Wilbanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 26TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 0:470% → 2%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+54
99.8%
Caden Creel pass complete to Cam Cook for 54 yds to the USM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
99.7%
Caden Creel pass complete to Cam Cook for 5 yds to the USM 16Similar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+2
99.8%
Caden Creel run for 2 yds to the USM 14Similar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+6
99.8%
Cam Cook run for 6 yds to the USM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
98.4%
Cam Cook run for 8 yds for a TD (C. Creel Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
99.3%
B. Braxton takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:33
Caden Creel pass complete to Brock Rechsteiner for 4 yds for a TD (C. Creel Run For Two-point Conversion)
-5.9
TD · Q3 5:52
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kadinn Morris for 6 yds for a TD (Creighton Wilbanks KICK)
+4.2
TD · Q1 6:38
Jeffery Pittman run for 3 yds for a TD (Creighton Wilbanks KICK)
+3.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com