Try the model
NEV

Nevada 16 at Western Kentucky 31

WKU
2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:21 · Bailey Ettridge punt for 56 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 38Pregame prior+16.1Home team on offense−0.9Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:57: Chubba Purdy run for 6 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK) — NEV win probability +10.0 pts (now 48%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:08: La'Vell Wright run for 2 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — WKU win probability +15.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 7:28: Joe McFadden 43 yd FG GOOD — NEV win probability +4.6 pts (now 47%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:23: George Hart III run for 8 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — WKU win probability +21.3 pts (now 78%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:23: Matthew Henry 48 Yd Kickoff Return (John Cannon Kick) — WKU win probability +6.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7NEV made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 13:34NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:39WKU 4th & 9 at NEV 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    69.9%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:17NEV 4th & 6 at WKU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:16WKU 4th & 6 at NEV 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    65.6%−2.0
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:21NEV 4th & 4 at NEV 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:21NEV 4th & 1 at WKU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    33.0%−1.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    30.1%−4.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:21WKU 4th & 16 at WKU 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−1.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:29WKU 4th & 17 at NEV 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−1.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:41NEV 4th & 5 at midfield, up 7
    Close callPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.4%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:17WKU 4th & 10 at WKU 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−2.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:30NEV 4th & 4 at WKU 8, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.5%−0.5
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    53.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    47.1%−5.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:28NEV 4th & 8 at WKU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    32.4%−8.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:34WKU 4th & 5 at WKU 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:25NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−1.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:23NEV 4th & 9 at WKU 44, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    24.8%−2.0
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%−1.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:04WKU 4th & 1 at NEV 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    81.7%−5.5
    54% to make
    Punt
    77.7%−9.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:29NEV 4th & 6 at WKU 6, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.5%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−2.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4NEV made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 6:57NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:08WKU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 11:23WKU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:49WKU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:23WKU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1229% → 29%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
71.1%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Jace Henry for 1 yd to the NEV 26Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
71.0%
Chubba Purdy run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEV 25Similar
Q1 13:41
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
71.0%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Jordan BrownSimilar
Q1 13:34
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
71.0%
Bailey Ettridge punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jairus Mack at the WKU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 2MISSED FG
10 plays · 38 yds · 3:4171% → 70%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
70.9%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Noah Meyers for 11 yds to the WKU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
71.0%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Moussa Barry for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 4
50
+7
71.0%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Jairus Mack for 7 yds to the NEV 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
71.0%
Jairus Mack run for 1 yd to the NEV 42Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+7
71.0%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Matthew Henry for 7 yds to the NEV 35Similar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+5
70.9%
George Hart III run for 5 yds to the NEV 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
71.0%
George Hart III run for 1 yd to the NEV 29Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
71.0%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Matthew HenrySimilar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 9
OPP 29
0
70.8%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Moussa BarrySimilar
Q1 9:39
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+47
70.4%
John Cannon 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 4:1330% → 32%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+30
70.1%
Herschel Turner run for 30 yds to the WKU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
69.4%
Herschel Turner run for 3 yds to the WKU 38Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+6
69.3%
Caleb Ramseur run for 6 yds to the WKU 32Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+4
69.0%
Caleb Ramseur run for 4 yds to the WKU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
68.6%
Herschel Turner run for 1 yd to the WKU 27Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+2
68.5%
Chubba Purdy run for 2 yds to the WKU 25Similar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+6
68.6%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Jordan Brown for 6 yds to the WKU 19Similar
Q1 5:22
4TH & 1
OPP 19
-5
68.6%
PENALTY Nevada False Start (Brown,Jordan) 5 yards from WKU19 to WKU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:17
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+42
68.2%
Joe McFadden 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 4FG
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:5069% → 69%
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
68.5%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Marvis Parrish for 8 yds to the WKU 48Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+9
68.6%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Noah Meyers for 9 yds to the NEV 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+17
68.7%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Noah Meyers for 17 yds to the NEV 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
68.9%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Marvis Parrish for 1 yd to the NEV 25Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+3
68.8%
Marvis Parrish run for 3 yds to the NEV 22Similar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 6
OPP 22
0
68.0%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to K.D. HutchinsonSimilar
Q1 2:16
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+40
69.2%
John Cannon 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4832% → 32%
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
68.0%
Herschel Turner run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEV 24Similar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
67.9%
Chubba Purdy run for 4 yds to the NEV 28Similar
Q1 0:49
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
68.1%
Nevada Penalty, Personal Foul (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 0:21
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
68.1%
Bailey Ettridge punt for 56 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 6INT
3 plays · 29 yds · 0:3668% → 69%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+13
68.2%
George Hart III run for 13 yds to the WKU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
68.4%
George Hart III run for 16 yds to the WKU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-16
69.3%
Maverick McIvor pass intercepted EJ Smith return for 16 yds to the WKU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7FUMBLE
9 plays · 37 yds · 4:3634% → 37%
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
65.6%
Herschel Turner run for 2 yds to the WKU 41Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+15
65.5%
(13:45) No Huddle-Shotgun Purdy,Chubba pass incomplete deep right to Brown,Jordan thrown to WKU03 broken up by Mack,Jaavan PENALTY WKU Pass Interference (Mack,Jaavan) 15 yards from WKU41 to WKU26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
64.7%
Chubba Purdy run for 1 yd to the WKU 25Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+5
64.6%
Herschel Turner run for 5 yds to the WKU 20Similar
Q2 12:07
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+3
64.7%
Chubba Purdy run for 3 yds to the WKU 17Similar
Q2 11:21
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+4
65.3%
Dominic Kelley run for 4 yds to the WKU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
63.5%
PENALTY Nevada False Start (Foster,Jack) 5 yards from WKU13 to WKU18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 15
OPP 18
-1
63.5%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Jett Carpenter for a loss of 1 yard to the WKU 19Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 16
OPP 19
+13
63.5%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Jordan Brown for 13 yds Jordan Brown fumbled, recovered by WKU Jaylen LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:1767% → 65%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
67.3%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Jairus MackSimilar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+2
67.1%
Marvis Parrish run for 2 yds to the WKU 13Similar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 8
OWN 13
-8
66.1%
Maverick McIvor sacked by Nelson Ropati for a loss of 8 yards to the WKU 5Similar
Q2 8:21
4TH & 16
OWN 5
0
65.1%
Cole Maynard punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Marcus Bellon at the WKU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9TD
3 plays · 46 yds · 1:1238% → 48%
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
62.2%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Jett Carpenter for 4 yds to the WKU 42Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+36
61.7%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Jett Carpenter for 36 yds to the WKU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
51.8%
Chubba Purdy run for 6 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:2255% → 53%
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
55.2%
George Hart III run for 2 yds to the WKU 27Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+18
55.1%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Noah Meyers for 18 yds to the WKU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
56.7%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 13 yds to the NEV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
57.6%
George Hart III run for no gain to the NEV 42Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
56.9%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Moussa BarrySimilar
Q2 5:09
3RD & 10
OPP 42
-7
56.0%
Maverick McIvor sacked by Dylan Labarbera for a loss of 7 yards to the NEV 49Similar
Q2 4:29
4TH & 17
OPP 49
0
52.6%
Cole Maynard punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:3847% → 53%
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
52.8%
Herschel Turner run for 1 yd to the NEV 21Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+7
51.4%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 7 yds to the NEV 28Similar
Q2 2:53
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+17
49.3%
Herschel Turner run for 17 yds to the NEV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
46.9%
Herschel Turner run for 1 yd to the NEV 46Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+2
46.6%
Caleb Ramseur run for 2 yds to the NEV 48Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+2
46.8%
Chubba Purdy run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:41
4TH & 5
50
0
47.5%
Bailey Ettridge punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jairus Mack at the WKU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1950% → 49%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
49.9%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Matthew HenrySimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
49.5%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Moussa BarrySimilar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 10
OWN 16
0
48.9%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to George Hart IIISimilar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 10
OWN 16
0
48.5%
Cole Maynard punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Marcus Bellon at the NEV 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13INT
11 plays · 62 yds · 0:5953% → 56%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+22
47.3%
Caleb Ramseur run for 22 yds to the WKU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
44.4%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Caleb RamseurSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+25
44.7%
Western Kentucky Penalty, Defensive Holding (Dylan Flowers) to the WKU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
43.4%
Herschel Turner run for 4 yds to the WKU 10Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+2
43.3%
Chubba Purdy run for 2 yds to the WKU 8Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 4
OPP 8
0
44.1%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Marcus BellonSimilar
Q2 0:30
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+7
45.7%
AJ Bianco run for 7 yds to the WKU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
43.6%
Dominic Kelley run for a loss of 3 yards to the WKU 4Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
43.5%
Chubba Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
43.6%
Chubba Purdy pass intercepted, touchback. Jaylen Lewis return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
49.3%
M. McIvor takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4451% → 69%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
50.5%
Marvis Parrish run for 10 yds to the WKU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
50.8%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Moussa BarrySimilar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+19
50.5%
Marvis Parrish run for 19 yds to the NEV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
53.7%
Marvis Parrish run for 1 yd to the NEV 45Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+5
52.8%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Noah Meyers for 5 yds to the NEV 40Similar
Q3 12:46
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+5
52.2%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 5 yds to the NEV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+30
53.5%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Cameron Flowers for 30 yds to the NEV 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
53.1%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Justin Wolf for 3 yds to the NEV 2Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
68.5%
La'Vell Wright run for 2 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 3:1839% → 47%
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
60.9%
Caleb Ramseur run for 1 yd to the NEV 30Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+10
60.8%
(10:12) Shotgun Purdy,Chubba pass complete short right to Brown,Jordan caught at Nevada29, for 7 yards to the Nevada37 (Brackenridge,Anthony), out of bounds PENALTY WKU Holding (Hayward,Koron) 10 yards from Nevada30 to Nevada40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+32
58.9%
Caleb Ramseur run for 17 yds to the WKU 43 for a 1ST down Western Kentucky Penalty, Personal Foul (Jaylen Lewis) to the WKU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
55.9%
Herschel Turner run for no gain to the WKU 28Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+1
56.0%
Herschel Turner run for 1 yd to the WKU 27Similar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+1
57.2%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 1 yd to the WKU 26Similar
Q3 7:28
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+43
52.7%
Joe McFadden 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4356% → 54%
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
55.6%
Marvis Parrish run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKU 31Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+2
54.6%
Marvis Parrish run for 2 yds to the WKU 33Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+5
52.9%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to La'Vell Wright for 5 yds to the WKU 38Similar
Q3 5:34
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
53.8%
Cole Maynard punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 37 yds · 4:5048% → 51%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+20
51.7%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 20 yds to the NEV 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
50.1%
Ky Woods run for 6 yds to the NEV 36Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 4
OWN 36
0
48.3%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Herschel TurnerSimilar
Q3 3:56
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+9
49.0%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Jett Carpenter for 9 yds to the NEV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
46.9%
Herschel Turner run for a loss of 2 yards to the NEV 43Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+2
47.9%
Caleb Ramseur run for 2 yds to the NEV 45Similar
Q3 1:44
3RD & 10
OWN 45
-10
47.9%
(01:46) Shotgun Purdy,Chubba pass complete short right to Thomas,Dakota caught at WKU41, for 26 yards to the WKU29 (Lewis,Jaylen) PENALTY Nevada Holding (Cochnauer,Zach) 10 yards from Nevada45 to Nevada35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:19
3RD & 20
OWN 35
+7
50.8%
Caleb Ramseur run for 7 yds to the NEV 42Similar
Q3 0:38
4TH & 13
OWN 42
+5
50.7%
PENALTY WKU Offside (Micatrotto,Kai) 5 yards from Nevada42 to Nevada47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:25
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
49.2%
Bailey Ettridge punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jairus Mack at the WKU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 3:3751% → 78%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
50.9%
Jairus Mack run for 6 yds to the WKU 21Similar
Q4 14:37
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+1
51.5%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Moussa Barry for 1 yd to the WKU 22Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+8
49.6%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Jairus Mack for 8 yds to the WKU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+21
51.1%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Noah Meyers for 21 yds to the NEV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
55.9%
George Hart III run for 2 yds to the NEV 47Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+5
56.0%
George Hart III run for 5 yds to the NEV 42Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+32
53.5%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Jairus Mack for 32 yds to the NEV 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
56.5%
Marvis Parrish run for 2 yds to the NEV 8Similar
Q4 11:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
77.8%
George Hart III run for 8 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 31 yds · 3:5529% → 30%
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.7%
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Marcus BellonSimilar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
70.9%
Chubba Purdy run for 3 yds to the NEV 28Similar
Q4 10:31
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+7
72.0%
Chubba Purdy run for 7 yds to the NEV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
69.1%
Marcus Bellon run for 5 yds to the NEV 40Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+15
66.2%
(09:18) No Huddle-Shotgun Purdy,Chubba pass intercepted by Ward,Nazir at WKU30, End Of Play PENALTY WKU Pass Interference (Ward,Nazir) 15 yards from Nevada40 to WKU45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
64.8%
Caleb Ramseur run for 5 yds to the WKU 40Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 5
OPP 40
-10
63.9%
(08:10) No Huddle Purdy,Chubba rush right for 10 yards gain to the WKU30, out of bounds at WKU30 PENALTY Nevada Holding (Henry,Jace) 10 yards from WKU40 to WKU50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 15
50
+6
68.7%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Dakota Thomas for 6 yds to the WKU 44Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
66.8%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Jett CarpenterSimilar
Q4 7:23
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
70.1%
Bailey Ettridge punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jairus Mack at the WKU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21TD
18 plays · 87 yds · 5:2879% → 98%
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
78.6%
La'Vell Wright run for 5 yds to the WKU 18Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+6
78.7%
La'Vell Wright run for 6 yds to the WKU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
79.3%
La'Vell Wright run for 14 yds to the WKU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
82.6%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Moussa Barry for 5 yds to the WKU 43Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+15
85.4%
Nevada Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Tanner Vaughan) to the NEV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
87.1%
Marvis Parrish run for 6 yds to the NEV 34Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+1
87.8%
Marvis Parrish run for 1 yd to the NEV 33Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+2
87.4%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Marvis Parrish for 2 yds to the NEV 31Similar
Q4 3:04
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+3
86.9%
La'Vell Wright run for 3 yds to the NEV 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
89.5%
La'Vell Wright run for 9 yds to the NEV 19Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+10
92.1%
George Hart III run for 10 yds to the NEV 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
92.2%
George Hart III run for 1 yd to the NEV 8Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
93.3%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Jaylen WesterSimilar
Q4 1:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
97.5%
La'Vell Wright run for 8 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22FG
15 plays · 69 yds · 1:133% → 8%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
97.3%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Ky Woods for 12 yds to the NEV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
97.0%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Jett Carpenter for 19 yds to the WKU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
96.7%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Jett CarpenterSimilar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
96.9%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Jett CarpenterSimilar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+12
97.0%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Caleb Ramseur for 12 yds to the WKU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
95.9%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Marcus BellonSimilar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+26
96.1%
Chubba Purdy run for 26 yds to the WKU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
95.8%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Jordan BrownSimilar
Q4 0:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
95.8%
(00:47) Shotgun Purdy,Chubba pass incomplete short right to Brown,Jordan thrown to WKU01 PENALTY WKU Pass Interference (Ward,Nazir), 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
95.9%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Marcus BellonSimilar
Q4 0:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
95.9%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Jordan BrownSimilar
Q4 0:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
96.2%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Jett CarpenterSimilar
Q4 0:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+22
92.3%
Joe McFadden 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23INT
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:151% → 1%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
99.1%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Dakota Thomas for 17 yds to the NEV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.1%
Chubba Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-12
99.1%
Chubba Purdy pass intercepted Nazir Ward return for 12 yds to the NEV 46 Nazir Ward fumbled, recovered by NEV Andrew MadrigalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:23
George Hart III run for 8 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
+21.3
TD · Q3 11:08
La'Vell Wright run for 2 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
+15.4
TD · Q2 6:57
Chubba Purdy run for 6 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)
-10
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com