NEV
Nevada 16 at Western Kentucky 31
WKU2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey play
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
NEV · Drive 1PUNT · 5 plays · 0 yds
Q1 15:00
Jack Cassidy kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
71.0%
0.0
Q1 14:46
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Jace Henry for 1 yd to the NEV 26
69.2%
-1.8
Q1 14:18
Chubba Purdy run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEV 25
68.3%
-0.9
Q1 13:41
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Jordan Brown
68.3%
0.0
Q1 13:34
Bailey Ettridge punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jairus Mack at the WKU 33
68.3%
0.0
WKU · Drive 2MISSED FG · 10 plays · 38 yds
Q1 13:20
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Noah Meyers for 11 yds to the WKU 44 for a 1ST down
70.8%
+2.6
Q1 13:07
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Moussa Barry for 6 yds to the 50 yard line
71.8%
+0.9
Q1 12:37
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Jairus Mack for 7 yds to the NEV 43 for a 1ST down
71.8%
0.0
Q1 12:06
Jairus Mack run for 1 yd to the NEV 42
72.8%
+1.1
Q1 11:33
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Matthew Henry for 7 yds to the NEV 35
72.8%
0.0
Q1 10:57
George Hart III run for 5 yds to the NEV 30 for a 1ST down
72.6%
-0.2
Q1 10:20
George Hart III run for 1 yd to the NEV 29
72.8%
+0.2
Q1 9:50
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Matthew Henry
72.8%
0.0
Q1 9:43
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Moussa Barry
72.6%
-0.2
Q1 9:39
John Cannon 47 yd FG MISSED
72.3%
-0.3
NEV · Drive 3FG · 11 plays · 47 yds
Q1 9:30
Herschel Turner run for 30 yds to the WKU 41 for a 1ST down
68.4%
-3.9
Q1 8:57
Herschel Turner run for 3 yds to the WKU 38
65.7%
-2.7
Q1 8:20
Caleb Ramseur run for 6 yds to the WKU 32
65.7%
0.0
Q1 7:40
Caleb Ramseur run for 4 yds to the WKU 28 for a 1ST down
65.7%
0.0
Q1 7:06
Herschel Turner run for 1 yd to the WKU 27
65.7%
0.0
Q1 6:20
Chubba Purdy run for 2 yds to the WKU 25
65.0%
-0.7
Q1 5:36
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Jordan Brown for 6 yds to the WKU 19
65.0%
0.0
Q1 5:36
Timeout Western Kentucky, clock 05:36
63.9%
-1.1
Q1 5:22
PENALTY Nevada False Start (Brown,Jordan) 5 yards from WKU19 to WKU24. NO PLAY.
63.9%
0.0
Q1 5:17
Joe McFadden 42 yd FG GOOD
59.0%
-4.9
Q1 5:17
Keaton Emmett kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback Nevada Penalty, Personal Foul (Austin Ambush)
65.8%
+6.8
WKU · Drive 4FG · 7 plays · 38 yds
Q1 5:06
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Marvis Parrish for 8 yds to the WKU 48
64.5%
-1.2
Q1 4:34
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Noah Meyers for 9 yds to the NEV 43 for a 1ST down
64.8%
+0.3
Q1 4:13
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Noah Meyers for 17 yds to the NEV 26 for a 1ST down
66.6%
+1.7
Q1 3:33
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Marvis Parrish for 1 yd to the NEV 25
66.5%
-0.1
Q1 2:54
Marvis Parrish run for 3 yds to the NEV 22
66.5%
0.0
Q1 2:21
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to K.D. Hutchinson
66.2%
-0.3
Q1 2:16
John Cannon 40 yd FG GOOD
70.0%
+3.8
NEV · Drive 5PUNT · 5 plays · 6 yds
Q1 2:16
Jack Cassidy kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
68.4%
-1.6
Q1 2:09
Herschel Turner run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEV 24
65.4%
-3.0
Q1 1:26
Chubba Purdy run for 4 yds to the NEV 28
64.0%
-1.4
Q1 0:49
Nevada Penalty, Personal Foul (Yards) declined
64.0%
0.0
Q1 0:21
Bailey Ettridge punt for 56 yds
63.8%
-0.2
WKU · Drive 6INT · 3 plays · 29 yds
Q1 0:00
George Hart III run for 13 yds to the WKU 26 for a 1ST down
67.3%
+3.5
Q2 14:53
George Hart III run for 16 yds to the WKU 42 for a 1ST down
67.3%
0.0
Q2 14:24
Maverick McIvor pass intercepted EJ Smith return for 16 yds to the WKU 43
68.1%
+0.8
NEV · Drive 7FUMBLE · 9 plays · 37 yds
Q2 14:17
Herschel Turner run for 2 yds to the WKU 41
61.5%
-6.6
Q2 13:42
(13:45) No Huddle-Shotgun Purdy,Chubba pass incomplete deep right to Brown,Jordan thrown to WKU03 broken up by Mack,Jaavan PENALTY WKU Pass Interference (Mack,Jaavan) 15 yards from WKU41 to WKU26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
61.5%
0.0
Q2 13:35
Chubba Purdy run for 1 yd to the WKU 25
61.2%
-0.4
Q2 12:54
Herschel Turner run for 5 yds to the WKU 20
61.2%
0.0
Q2 12:07
Chubba Purdy run for 3 yds to the WKU 17
61.2%
0.0
Q2 11:21
Dominic Kelley run for 4 yds to the WKU 13 for a 1ST down
61.7%
+0.5
Q2 10:49
PENALTY Nevada False Start (Foster,Jack) 5 yards from WKU13 to WKU18. NO PLAY.
60.5%
-1.1
Q2 10:17
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Jett Carpenter for a loss of 1 yard to the WKU 19
60.5%
0.0
Q2 9:41
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Jordan Brown for 13 yds Jordan Brown fumbled, recovered by WKU Jaylen Lewis
60.5%
0.0
WKU · Drive 8PUNT · 4 plays · -6 yds
Q2 9:38
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Jairus Mack
67.0%
+6.4
Q2 9:31
Marvis Parrish run for 2 yds to the WKU 13
67.0%
0.0
Q2 8:52
Maverick McIvor sacked by Nelson Ropati for a loss of 8 yards to the WKU 5
67.0%
0.0
Q2 8:21
Cole Maynard punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Marcus Bellon at the WKU 46
66.7%
-0.3
NEV · Drive 9TD · 3 plays · 46 yds
Q2 8:09
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Jett Carpenter for 4 yds to the WKU 42
59.0%
-7.7
Q2 7:31
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Jett Carpenter for 36 yds to the WKU 6 for a 1ST down
58.9%
-0.1
Q2 6:57
Chubba Purdy run for 6 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)
41.5%
-17.4
WKU · Drive 10PUNT · 8 plays · 26 yds
Q2 6:57
Keaton Emmett kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
43.3%
+1.8
Q2 6:51
George Hart III run for 2 yds to the WKU 27
48.8%
+5.4
Q2 6:21
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Noah Meyers for 18 yds to the WKU 45 for a 1ST down
47.8%
-0.9
Q2 5:58
Maverick McIvor pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 13 yds to the NEV 42 for a 1ST down
48.5%
+0.7
Q2 5:46
George Hart III run for no gain to the NEV 42
50.5%
+2.0
Q2 5:16
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Moussa Barry
50.5%
0.0
Q2 5:09
Maverick McIvor sacked by Dylan Labarbera for a loss of 7 yards to the NEV 49
50.2%
-0.3
Q2 4:29
Cole Maynard punt for 49 yds for a touchback
49.5%
-0.7
NEV · Drive 11PUNT · 9 plays · 30 yds
Q2 4:19
Herschel Turner run for 1 yd to the NEV 21
43.3%
-6.2
Q2 3:24
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 7 yds to the NEV 28
40.5%
-2.8
Q2 2:53
Herschel Turner run for 17 yds to the NEV 45 for a 1ST down
40.1%
-0.4
Q2 2:12
Herschel Turner run for 1 yd to the NEV 46
38.7%
-1.4
Q2 1:55
Caleb Ramseur run for 2 yds to the NEV 48
38.6%
-0.1
Q2 1:55
Timeout Western Kentucky, clock 01:55
38.6%
0.0
Q2 1:48
Chubba Purdy run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line
38.6%
0.0
Q2 1:48
Timeout Western Kentucky, clock 01:48
38.9%
+0.3
Q2 1:41
Bailey Ettridge punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jairus Mack at the WKU 16
38.9%
0.0
WKU · Drive 12PUNT · 4 plays · 0 yds
Q2 1:36
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Matthew Henry
47.2%
+8.3
Q2 1:27
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Moussa Barry
47.2%
0.0
Q2 1:24
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to George Hart III
47.2%
0.0
Q2 1:17
Cole Maynard punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Marcus Bellon at the NEV 34
47.2%
0.0
NEV · Drive 13INT · 11 plays · 62 yds
Q2 1:10
Caleb Ramseur run for 22 yds to the WKU 44 for a 1ST down
40.0%
-7.2
Q2 0:57
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Caleb Ramseur
38.6%
-1.4
Q2 0:50
Western Kentucky Penalty, Defensive Holding (Dylan Flowers) to the WKU 14 for a 1ST down
38.6%
0.0
Q2 0:43
Herschel Turner run for 4 yds to the WKU 10
38.2%
-0.4
Q2 0:38
Chubba Purdy run for 2 yds to the WKU 8
37.9%
-0.2
Q2 0:38
Timeout Nevada, clock 00:38
37.4%
-0.5
Q2 0:34
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Marcus Bellon
37.4%
0.0
Q2 0:30
AJ Bianco run for 7 yds to the WKU 1 for a 1ST down
38.2%
+0.7
Q2 0:30
Dominic Kelley run for a loss of 3 yards to the WKU 4
37.4%
-0.7
Q2 0:30
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete
37.4%
0.0
Q2 0:11
Chubba Purdy pass intercepted, touchback. Jaylen Lewis return for no gain
36.3%
-1.1
WKU · Drive 14END OF HALF · 1 play · -1 yds
Q2 0:00
M. McIvor takes a knee
43.9%
+7.6
WKU · Drive 15TD · 10 plays · 75 yds
Q3 15:00
Keaton Emmett kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
39.2%
-4.8
Q3 14:52
Marvis Parrish run for 10 yds to the WKU 35 for a 1ST down
46.1%
+6.9
Q3 14:33
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Moussa Barry
46.1%
0.0
Q3 14:26
Marvis Parrish run for 19 yds to the NEV 46 for a 1ST down
46.1%
0.0
Q3 14:04
Marvis Parrish run for 1 yd to the NEV 45
48.0%
+2.0
Q3 13:10
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Noah Meyers for 5 yds to the NEV 40
47.4%
-0.6
Q3 12:46
Maverick McIvor pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 5 yds to the NEV 35 for a 1ST down
48.2%
+0.8
Q3 12:16
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Cameron Flowers for 30 yds to the NEV 5 for a 1ST down
48.5%
+0.3
Q3 11:36
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Justin Wolf for 3 yds to the NEV 2
48.5%
0.0
Q3 11:08
La'Vell Wright run for 2 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
68.2%
+19.7
NEV · Drive 16FG · 8 plays · 45 yds
Q3 11:01
Jack Cassidy kickoff for 61 yds , Ky Woods return for 25 yds to the NEV 29
66.0%
-2.2
Q3 10:46
Caleb Ramseur run for 1 yd to the NEV 30
59.9%
-6.1
Q3 10:10
(10:12) Shotgun Purdy,Chubba pass complete short right to Brown,Jordan caught at Nevada29, for 7 yards to the Nevada37 (Brackenridge,Anthony), out of bounds PENALTY WKU Holding (Hayward,Koron) 10 yards from Nevada30 to Nevada40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
59.9%
0.0
Q3 9:56
Caleb Ramseur run for 17 yds to the WKU 43 for a 1ST down Western Kentucky Penalty, Personal Foul (Jaylen Lewis) to the WKU 28 for a 1ST down
58.6%
-1.3
Q3 9:37
Herschel Turner run for no gain to the WKU 28
57.1%
-1.5
Q3 8:51
Herschel Turner run for 1 yd to the WKU 27
57.1%
0.0
Q3 8:03
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 1 yd to the WKU 26
57.1%
0.0
Q3 7:28
Joe McFadden 43 yd FG GOOD
49.1%
-8.0
WKU · Drive 17PUNT · 5 plays · 5 yds
Q3 7:21
Keaton Emmett kickoff for 65 yds , George Hart III return for 33 yds to the WKU 33
50.4%
+1.3
Q3 7:17
Marvis Parrish run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKU 31
56.0%
+5.6
Q3 6:49
Marvis Parrish run for 2 yds to the WKU 33
56.0%
0.0
Q3 6:00
Maverick McIvor pass complete to La'Vell Wright for 5 yds to the WKU 38
56.0%
0.0
Q3 5:34
Cole Maynard punt for 52 yds
56.2%
+0.1
NEV · Drive 18PUNT · 10 plays · 37 yds
Q3 5:15
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 20 yds to the NEV 30 for a 1ST down
50.5%
-5.7
Q3 4:45
Ky Woods run for 6 yds to the NEV 36
50.0%
-0.4
Q3 4:07
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Herschel Turner
48.6%
-1.4
Q3 3:56
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Jett Carpenter for 9 yds to the NEV 45 for a 1ST down
48.6%
0.0
Q3 3:15
Herschel Turner run for a loss of 2 yards to the NEV 43
47.6%
-1.0
Q3 2:22
Caleb Ramseur run for 2 yds to the NEV 45
47.6%
0.0
Q3 1:44
(01:46) Shotgun Purdy,Chubba pass complete short right to Thomas,Dakota caught at WKU41, for 26 yards to the WKU29 (Lewis,Jaylen) PENALTY Nevada Holding (Cochnauer,Zach) 10 yards from Nevada45 to Nevada35. NO PLAY.
47.6%
0.0
Q3 1:19
Caleb Ramseur run for 7 yds to the NEV 42
49.3%
+1.7
Q3 0:38
PENALTY WKU Offside (Micatrotto,Kai) 5 yards from Nevada42 to Nevada47. NO PLAY.
48.0%
-1.3
Q3 0:25
Bailey Ettridge punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jairus Mack at the WKU 15
47.7%
-0.3
WKU · Drive 19TD · 9 plays · 85 yds
Q3 0:00
Jairus Mack run for 6 yds to the WKU 21
54.6%
+6.8
Q4 14:37
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Moussa Barry for 1 yd to the WKU 22
54.6%
0.0
Q4 14:19
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Jairus Mack for 8 yds to the WKU 30 for a 1ST down
54.6%
0.0
Q4 13:43
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Noah Meyers for 21 yds to the NEV 49 for a 1ST down
54.6%
0.0
Q4 13:30
George Hart III run for 2 yds to the NEV 47
56.5%
+1.9
Q4 12:59
George Hart III run for 5 yds to the NEV 42
56.5%
0.0
Q4 12:21
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Jairus Mack for 32 yds to the NEV 10 for a 1ST down
54.7%
-1.7
Q4 11:59
Marvis Parrish run for 2 yds to the NEV 8
55.0%
+0.2
Q4 11:23
George Hart III run for 8 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
77.6%
+22.7
NEV · Drive 20PUNT · 11 plays · 31 yds
Q4 11:23
Jack Cassidy kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
76.1%
-1.5
Q4 11:18
Carter Jones pass incomplete to Marcus Bellon
72.8%
-3.3
Q4 11:10
Chubba Purdy run for 3 yds to the NEV 28
72.8%
0.0
Q4 10:31
Chubba Purdy run for 7 yds to the NEV 35 for a 1ST down
72.8%
0.0
Q4 9:51
Marcus Bellon run for 5 yds to the NEV 40
72.5%
-0.3
Q4 9:17
(09:18) No Huddle-Shotgun Purdy,Chubba pass intercepted by Ward,Nazir at WKU30, End Of Play PENALTY WKU Pass Interference (Ward,Nazir) 15 yards from Nevada40 to WKU45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
71.7%
-0.8
Q4 8:49
Caleb Ramseur run for 5 yds to the WKU 40
70.7%
-1.0
Q4 8:09
(08:10) No Huddle Purdy,Chubba rush right for 10 yards gain to the WKU30, out of bounds at WKU30 PENALTY Nevada Holding (Henry,Jace) 10 yards from WKU40 to WKU50. NO PLAY.
70.2%
-0.5
Q4 7:42
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Dakota Thomas for 6 yds to the WKU 44
70.8%
+0.6
Q4 7:30
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Jett Carpenter
70.6%
-0.3
Q4 7:23
Bailey Ettridge punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jairus Mack at the WKU 13
70.9%
+0.3
WKU · Drive 21TD · 18 plays · 87 yds
Q4 7:17
La'Vell Wright run for 5 yds to the WKU 18
77.3%
+6.4
Q4 6:46
La'Vell Wright run for 6 yds to the WKU 24 for a 1ST down
77.3%
0.0
Q4 6:17
La'Vell Wright run for 14 yds to the WKU 38 for a 1ST down
77.1%
-0.2
Q4 5:35
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Moussa Barry for 5 yds to the WKU 43
79.4%
+2.4
Q4 5:09
Nevada Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Tanner Vaughan) to the NEV 40 for a 1ST down
80.6%
+1.2
Q4 4:56
Marvis Parrish run for 6 yds to the NEV 34
82.5%
+1.9
Q4 4:32
Marvis Parrish run for 1 yd to the NEV 33
82.5%
0.0
Q4 3:49
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Marvis Parrish for 2 yds to the NEV 31
82.9%
+0.5
Q4 3:49
Timeout Western Kentucky, clock 03:49
82.5%
-0.4
Q4 3:04
La'Vell Wright run for 3 yds to the NEV 28 for a 1ST down
82.6%
0.0
Q4 3:04
Timeout Nevada, clock 03:04
84.8%
+2.2
Q4 2:55
La'Vell Wright run for 9 yds to the NEV 19
84.8%
0.0
Q4 2:55
Timeout Nevada, clock 02:55
84.8%
0.0
Q4 2:44
George Hart III run for 10 yds to the NEV 9 for a 1ST down
85.8%
+0.9
Q4 2:44
Timeout Nevada, clock 02:44
85.8%
0.0
Q4 2:36
George Hart III run for 1 yd to the NEV 8
85.8%
0.0
Q4 1:55
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Jaylen Wester
87.3%
+1.6
Q4 1:49
La'Vell Wright run for 8 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
94.0%
+6.6
NEV · Drive 22FG · 15 plays · 69 yds
Q4 1:49
Jack Cassidy kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
94.0%
0.0
Q4 1:42
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Ky Woods for 12 yds to the NEV 37 for a 1ST down
91.5%
-2.4
Q4 1:33
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Jett Carpenter for 19 yds to the WKU 44 for a 1ST down
91.5%
0.0
Q4 1:25
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Jett Carpenter
91.5%
0.0
Q4 1:19
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Jett Carpenter
91.7%
+0.1
Q4 1:10
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Caleb Ramseur for 12 yds to the WKU 32 for a 1ST down
91.7%
0.0
Q4 1:05
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Marcus Bellon
91.3%
-0.4
Q4 0:56
Chubba Purdy run for 26 yds to the WKU 6 for a 1ST down
91.3%
0.0
Q4 0:51
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Jordan Brown
91.3%
0.0
Q4 0:47
(00:47) Shotgun Purdy,Chubba pass incomplete short right to Brown,Jordan thrown to WKU01 PENALTY WKU Pass Interference (Ward,Nazir), 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
91.3%
0.0
Q4 0:41
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Marcus Bellon
91.3%
0.0
Q4 0:37
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Jordan Brown
91.3%
0.0
Q4 0:33
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Jett Carpenter
91.3%
0.0
Q4 0:29
Joe McFadden 22 yd FG GOOD
91.3%
0.0
Q4 0:23
Matthew Henry 48 Yd Kickoff Return (John Cannon Kick)
93.4%
+2.1
NEV · Drive 23INT · 4 plays · 17 yds
Q4 0:23
Jack Cassidy kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
96.3%
+2.9
Q4 0:15
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Dakota Thomas for 17 yds to the NEV 42 for a 1ST down
93.4%
-2.9
Q4 0:14
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete
93.4%
0.0
Q4 0:00
Chubba Purdy pass intercepted Nazir Ward return for 12 yds to the NEV 46 Nazir Ward fumbled, recovered by NEV Andrew Madrigal
93.4%
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:23
George Hart III run for 8 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
+22.7
TD · Q3 11:08
La'Vell Wright run for 2 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
+19.7
TD · Q2 6:57
Chubba Purdy run for 6 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)
-17.4