Try the model
ULM

UL Monroe 31 at UTEP 25

UTEP
2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Sun Bowl
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UTEP
modelUTEP aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playUTEP scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:26 · Malachi Nelson pass complete to Wondame Davis Jr. for 11 yds to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 194Home team on offense−24.7Pregame prior+0.1Score differential−1.9Garbage-time factor−18.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−6.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:42: Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jonathan Bibbs for 35 yds for a TD (Luke Stagg KICK) — ULM win probability +7.1 pts (now 50%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:53: Hunter Herring run for 1 yd for a TD (Luke Stagg KICK) — ULM win probability +13.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:31: Wondame Davis Jr. 44 Yd pass from Malachi Nelson (Malachi Nelson Pass to Hahsaun Wilson for Two-Point Conversion) — UTEP win probability +16.7 pts (now 21%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:00: Malachi Nelson pass complete to Wondame Davis Jr. for 20 yds for a TD (Carlos Arreola KICK) — UTEP win probability +26.1 pts (now 35%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:00: Timeout UTEP, clock 06:00 — ULM win probability +17.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTEP made the numbers' call on 10 of 12ULM made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 9:21UTEP 4th & 4 at ULM 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    65.2%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    64.3%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:36ULM 4th & 12 at ULM 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:20UTEP 4th & 10 at ULM 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    62.7%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:49UTEP 4th & 18 at UTEP 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−2.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:55UTEP 4th & 5 at UTEP 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:40ULM 4th & 14 at UTEP 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−1.8
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    52.1%−5.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:28UTEP 4th & 3 at ULM 49, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    35.3%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:28UTEP 4th & 7 at ULM 41, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    33.6%
    32% to make
    Punt
    32.9%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:28UTEP 4th & 7 at ULM 41, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    33.6%
    32% to make
    Punt
    32.9%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:45ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 42, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−1.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:13UTEP 4th & 3 at UTEP 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.1%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:39UTEP 4th & 8 at ULM 10, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    3.1%−5.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:05ULM 4th & 11 at ULM 24, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%−1.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:02UTEP 4th & 24 at UTEP 33, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−3.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:02UTEP 4th & 24 at UTEP 33, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−3.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:52ULM 4th & 12 at ULM 32, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:35ULM 4th & 5 at UTEP 43, up 13
    Close callPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    90.3%−1.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%−0.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:32ULM 4th & 5 at midfield, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%−1.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:13ULM 4th & 4 at UTEP 24, up 6
    Close callWent for it · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.9%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    89.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    84.5%−4.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:26UTEP 4th & 2 at UTEP 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.8%−3.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTEP made the numbers' call on 1 of 3ULM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:44ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:27UTEP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:31ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:42ULM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:53ULM Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:31UTEP Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    12.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    12.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:00UTEP Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTEPDrive 1DOWNS
19 plays · 84 yds · 5:2269% → 68%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
68.8%
Hahsaun Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 11Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 11
OWN 11
+3
68.8%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the UTEP 14Similar
Q1 13:41
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+9
68.6%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Eric Willis III for 9 yds to the UTEP 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
68.7%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Trevon TateSimilar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+3
68.6%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+31
68.5%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Judah Ezinwa for 31 yds to the ULM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
68.9%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Toric Goins Jr.Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+20
68.9%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Jaylan Brown for 20 yds to the ULM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-6
69.0%
Malachi Nelson sacked by Dylan Howell for a loss of 6 yards to the ULM 29Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 16
OPP 29
+6
68.8%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Wondame Davis Jr. for 6 yds to the ULM 23Similar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 10
OPP 23
-10
68.9%
(10:55) No Huddle-Shotgun Nelson,Malachi pass complete deep left to Brown,Jaylan caught at ULM00, for 23 yards to the ULM00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 10:59 PENALTY UTEP Holding (Robinson,Mark) 10 yards from ULM23 to ULM33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 20
OPP 33
+24
68.6%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Hahsaun Wilson for 24 yds to the ULM 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
69.1%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the ULM 8Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
69.0%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the ULM 4Similar
Q1 9:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
68.9%
Hahsaun Wilson run for no gain to the ULM 4Similar
Q1 9:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
68.4%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Toric Goins Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2TD
5 plays · 96 yds · 1:3532% → 36%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-2
68.1%
PENALTY ULM False Start (Mickle,Jay) 2 yards from ULM04 to ULM02. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 12
OWN 2
+72
68.0%
Dorian Lewis run for 72 yds to the UTEP 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+14
66.7%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Braylon McReynolds for 14 yds to the UTEP 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
64.2%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jake Godfrey for 12 yds for a TD (Luke Stagg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3TD
3 plays · 73 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+73
67.7%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Trevon Tate for 73 yds for a TD (Carlos Arreola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3432% → 32%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
67.9%
Dorian Lewis run for 1 yd to the ULM 26Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-3
67.1%
Aidan Armenta run for a loss of 3 yards to the ULM 23Similar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
67.4%
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Rico Powers Jr.Similar
Q1 5:36
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+23
67.6%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 47 yds , Eric Willis III returns for 23 yds to the ULM 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 5MISSED FG
10 plays · 24 yds · 2:0168% → 67%
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
68.2%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Wondame Davis Jr.Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+8
68.1%
Ashten Emory run for 8 yds to the ULM 39Similar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+4
67.9%
Ashten Emory run for 4 yds to the ULM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
68.4%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Jaylan Brown for 5 yds to the ULM 30Similar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 5
OPP 30
0
68.4%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Jaylan BrownSimilar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+7
68.0%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Mason Ferguson for 7 yds to the ULM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
68.3%
Ashten Emory run for no gain to the ULM 23Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
68.3%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Judah EzinwaSimilar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
67.8%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Trevon TateSimilar
Q1 3:20
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+40
67.0%
Carlos Arreola 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6TD
2 plays · 77 yds · 0:3134% → 40%
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+37
66.5%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jake Godfrey for 37 yds to the UTEP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
60.3%
Braylon McReynolds run for 40 yds for a TD (Luke Stagg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 1:3261% → 60%
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-9
61.4%
Malachi Nelson sacked by Kamrin Canterbury for a loss of 9 yards to the UTEP 20Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 19
OWN 20
+6
60.8%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 6 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 13
OWN 26
-5
60.3%
(01:15) PENALTY UTEP False Start (Davis Jr.,Wondame) 5 yards from UTEP26 to UTEP21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:03
3RD & 18
OWN 21
0
60.0%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Jaylan BrownSimilar
Q1 0:49
4TH & 18
OWN 21
0
59.8%
Noah Botsford punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ULM 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 2:4440% → 49%
Q1 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
60.0%
Jonathan Bibbs run for 14 yds to the ULM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
58.8%
Brandon Buckhaulter run for 1 yd to the ULM 41Similar
Q2 14:39
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+12
58.8%
Braylon McReynolds run for 12 yds to the UTEP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
57.8%
Braylon McReynolds run for 9 yds to the UTEP 38Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+3
56.9%
Zach Palmer-Smith run for 3 yds to the UTEP 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
49.8%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jonathan Bibbs for 35 yds for a TD (Luke Stagg KICK)Similar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
50.6%
PENALTY ULM UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Armenta,Aidan) 15 yards from ULM35 to ULM20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2448% → 45%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
47.9%
Ashten Emory run for 1 yd to the UTEP 37Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+4
45.8%
Ashten Emory run for 4 yds to the UTEP 41Similar
Q2 11:14
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
46.0%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Toric Goins Jr.Similar
Q2 10:55
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
45.1%
Noah Botsford punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ULM 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10FG
15 plays · 49 yds · 5:0453% → 60%
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
47.3%
Dorian Lewis run for 1 yd to the ULM 25Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+8
46.7%
Aidan Armenta run for 8 yds to the ULM 33Similar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+18
42.7%
Hunter Herring run for 18 yds to the UTEP 49 Hunter Herring fumbled, recovered by ULM Kevontay Wells for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
41.7%
UTEP Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Neil Campbell) to the UTEP 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
40.2%
Braylon McReynolds run for 4 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
39.9%
Zach Palmer-Smith run for no gain to the UTEP 28Similar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 6
OPP 28
-5
35.8%
(07:11) No Huddle-Shotgun Herring,Hunter rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UTEP24 (Davey,Micah; Bowser,Shakaun) PENALTY ULM Illegal Formation 5 yards from UTEP28 to UTEP33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 11
OPP 33
+10
35.4%
(06:43) No Huddle-Shotgun Armenta,Aidan pass incomplete deep right to Powers,Rico thrown to UTEP00 broken up by Campbell,Neil PENALTY UTEP Holding (Campbell,Neil) 10 yards from UTEP33 to UTEP23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
34.7%
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Julian NixonSimilar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-4
34.5%
Braylon McReynolds run for a loss of 4 yards to the UTEP 27Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 14
OPP 27
0
33.9%
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Jake GodfreySimilar
Q2 5:40
4TH & 14
OPP 27
+44
40.5%
Luke Stagg 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 11DOWNS
17 plays · 27 yds · 4:5739% → 33%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
38.7%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the UTEP 35Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+1
38.1%
Shay Smith run for 1 yd to the UTEP 36Similar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+8
36.6%
Shay Smith run for 8 yds to the UTEP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
40.0%
Shay Smith run for 2 yds to the UTEP 46Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
40.1%
Shay Smith pass incomplete to Eric Willis IIISimilar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+5
38.8%
Shay Smith pass complete to Toric Goins Jr. for 5 yds to the ULM 49Similar
Q2 2:28
4TH & 3
OPP 49
-3
36.7%
Shay Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the UTEP 48Similar
Q2 2:28
4TH & 3
OPP 49
+5
36.7%
(02:20) No Huddle-Shotgun Smith,Shay rush left for 3 yards loss to the UTEP48 (Mack,Andre) PENALTY ULM Illegal Substitution 5 yards from ULM49 to ULM44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
40.3%
Shay Smith pass incomplete to Toric Goins Jr.Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-2
38.5%
Trevon Tate run for a loss of 2 yards to the ULM 46Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 12
OPP 46
+5
34.3%
(01:09) No Huddle-Shotgun Smith,Shay pass incomplete deep right to Goins Jr.,Toric thrown to ULM00 PENALTY ULM Offside (Hamlin,Jaden) 5 yards from ULM46 to ULM41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
34.4%
Shay Smith run for no gain to the ULM 41Similar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
33.0%
Shay Smith pass incomplete to Mason FergusonSimilar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
33.0%
Shay Smith pass incomplete to Mason FergusonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
19.8%
UL Monroe Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ULM 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:1569% → 73%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
31.3%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Brandon Buckhaulter for 14 yds to the ULM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
28.4%
Braylon McReynolds run for 1 yd to the ULM 40Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+2
28.8%
Braylon McReynolds run for 2 yds to the ULM 42Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
26.4%
UL Monroe Penalty, Offensive Holding (Julian Nixon) declinedSimilar
Q3 12:45
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
27.5%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Eric Willis III at the UTEP 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 14DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1630% → 28%
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
29.5%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Wondame Davis Jr. for 4 yds to the UTEP 24Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
29.4%
Ashten Emory run for 2 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+1
28.7%
Marquez Taylor run for 1 yd to the UTEP 27Similar
Q3 11:13
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
28.0%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Eric Willis IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15TD
10 plays · 27 yds · 2:5878% → 94%
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
22.0%
Zach Palmer-Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 28Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+3
21.4%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jonathan Bibbs for 3 yds to the UTEP 25Similar
Q3 9:41
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+12
21.1%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to JP Coulter for 12 yds to the UTEP 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
19.5%
Jake Godfrey run for 4 yds to the UTEP 9Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 6
OPP 9
-5
19.1%
PENALTY ULM False Start (Steele,Reese) 5 yards from UTEP09 to UTEP14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+13
19.5%
Hunter Herring pass complete to Julian Nixon for 13 yds to the UTEP 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.7%
Hunter Herring run for 1 yd for a TD (Luke Stagg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 16FG
10 plays · 78 yds · 1:388% → 10%
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
8.4%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Trevon Tate for 8 yds to the UTEP 20Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 2
OWN 20
0
8.5%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Judah EzinwaSimilar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+34
8.3%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Wondame Davis Jr. for 34 yds to the ULM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+23
8.1%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Trevon Tate for 23 yds to the ULM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
8.6%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Judah EzinwaSimilar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+11
8.4%
PENALTY ULM UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Smith,James) 11 yard from ULM23 to ULM12, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
8.6%
Malachi Nelson run for 2 yds to the ULM 10Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
8.5%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Jaylan BrownSimilar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
8.2%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Wondame Davis Jr.Similar
Q3 5:39
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+27
9.8%
Carlos Arreola 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1695% → 95%
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
5.3%
Braylon McReynolds run for a loss of 2 yards to the ULM 23Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+1
5.1%
Braylon McReynolds run for 1 yd to the ULM 24Similar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
5.0%
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Nate Sullivan Jr.Similar
Q3 4:05
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
5.1%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Eric Willis III at the UTEP 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · -5 yds · 1:478% → 6%
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
7.8%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Hahsaun WilsonSimilar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
6.9%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Marcus Torres for 6 yds to the UTEP 39Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+8
6.9%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Marcus Torres for 8 yds to the UTEP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
7.0%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Eric Willis IIISimilar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
6.8%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the UTEP 48Similar
Q3 2:13
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
6.4%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Jaylan BrownSimilar
Q3 2:13
4TH & 9
OWN 48
-15
6.3%
PENALTY UTEP UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 15 yards from UTEP48 to UTEP33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:02
4TH & 24
OWN 33
0
6.0%
Noah Botsford punt for 38 ydsSimilar
Q3 2:02
4TH & 24
OWN 33
0
6.0%
Noah Botsford punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:4597% → 97%
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
3.5%
Braylon McReynolds run for no gain to the ULM 34Similar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-5
3.4%
(01:09) Shotgun Armenta,Aidan pass complete short right to Lewis,Dorian caught at ULM48, for 31 yards to the UTEP35 (Davey,Micah) PENALTY ULM Illegal Formation 5 yards from ULM34 to ULM29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 15
OWN 29
0
3.3%
Braylon McReynolds run for no gain to the ULM 29Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 15
OWN 29
+3
3.2%
Dorian Lewis run for 3 yds to the ULM 32Similar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 12
OWN 32
+1
3.3%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 36 yds , Eric Willis III returns for 1 yd to the UTEP 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 20TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 0:485% → 21%
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+32
4.5%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Eric Willis III for 32 yds to the ULM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
4.7%
(14:10) No Huddle-Shotgun Nelson,Malachi pass incomplete deep middle to Davis Jr.,Wondame thrown to ULM10 broken up by Fauntroy,Carl PENALTY UTEP Holding (Roberts,Tyler) 10 yards from ULM35 to ULM45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 20
OPP 45
+1
4.1%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the ULM 44Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 19
OPP 44
+44
20.8%
Wondame Davis Jr. 44 Yd pass from Malachi Nelson (Malachi Nelson Pass to Hahsaun Wilson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 4:2087% → 94%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
12.7%
Zach Palmer-Smith run for 5 yds to the ULM 30Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
12.2%
Aidan Armenta run for 7 yds to the ULM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
10.4%
Zach Palmer-Smith run for 1 yd to the ULM 38Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+14
7.1%
Braylon McReynolds run for 14 yds to the UTEP 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
5.8%
Braylon McReynolds run for 3 yds to the UTEP 45Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+2
5.7%
Dorian Lewis run for 2 yds to the UTEP 43Similar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
5.7%
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Jake GodfreySimilar
Q4 8:35
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
5.8%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 20 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 22TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 2:127% → 35%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
7.0%
Malachi Nelson run for 5 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+6
7.0%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Trevon Tate for 6 yds to the UTEP 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
7.1%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Wondame Davis Jr.Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+8
6.8%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Trevon Tate for 8 yds to the UTEP 42Similar
Q4 7:38
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+15
6.8%
PENALTY ULM UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Canterbury,Kamrin) 15 yards from UTEP42 to ULM43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+17
8.1%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Toric Goins Jr. for 17 yds to the ULM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-7
10.1%
Malachi Nelson sacked by Ziggy Loa for a loss of 7 yards to the ULM 33Similar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 17
OPP 33
0
9.2%
(06:26) No Huddle-Shotgun Nelson,Malachi pass incomplete deep left to Brown,Jaylan thrown to ULM00 broken up by Ester,Jyren PENALTY ULM Offside declined ULM Pass Interference (Ester,Jyren) 15 yards from ULM33 to ULM18, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
8.9%
Trevon Tate run for a loss of 2 yards to the ULM 20Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 12
OPP 20
+20
35.0%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Wondame Davis Jr. for 20 yds for a TD (Carlos Arreola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 3:0883% → 90%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
17.1%
Aidan Armenta run for 7 yds to the ULM 32Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+13
16.0%
Braylon McReynolds run for 13 yds to the ULM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
11.7%
Braylon McReynolds run for 3 yds to the ULM 48Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-5
10.3%
PENALTY ULM Delay Of Game (Armenta,Aidan) 5 yards from ULM48 to ULM43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+9
9.9%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Tyler Griffin for 9 yds to the UTEP 48Similar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 3
OPP 48
-2
8.7%
Hunter Herring run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:32
4TH & 5
50
0
10.5%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 24INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1217% → 18%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
16.5%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Eric Willis IIISimilar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
18.9%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Trevon TateSimilar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-5
18.2%
Malachi Nelson pass intercepted Lynard Harris return for 5 yds to the UTEP 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 25DOWNS
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:5593% → 96%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
6.7%
Zach Palmer-Smith run for 4 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+3
4.3%
Braylon McReynolds run for 3 yds to the UTEP 23Similar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 3
OPP 23
-1
3.3%
Hunter Herring run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 24Similar
Q4 1:13
4TH & 4
OPP 24
0
4.2%
Landon Graves run for no gain to the UTEP 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 26INT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:518% → 8%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
8.1%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Trevon Tate for 8 yds to the UTEP 32Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 2
OWN 32
0
9.2%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Eric Willis IIISimilar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 2
OWN 32
0
8.1%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Wondame Davis Jr.Similar
Q4 0:26
4TH & 2
OWN 32
+11
6.4%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Wondame Davis Jr. for 11 yds to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
7.8%
Malachi Nelson pass intercepted David Godsey Jr. return for no gain to the ULM 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
3.1%
A. Armenta takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:00
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Wondame Davis Jr. for 20 yds for a TD (Carlos Arreola KICK)
+26.1
TD · Q4 6:00
Timeout UTEP, clock 06:00
-17.7
TD · Q4 13:31
Wondame Davis Jr. 44 Yd pass from Malachi Nelson (Malachi Nelson Pass to Hahsaun Wilson for Two-Point Conversion)
+16.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com