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MRSH

Marshall 42 at Middle Tennessee 28

MTSU
2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
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Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreMRSH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:00 · Nathan Totten punt for 58 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsOne-score game
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 90Home team on offense−2.2Score differential−2.2Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0One-score game−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:05: Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 2 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK) — MRSH win probability +4.9 pts (now 55%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:54: Nicholas Vattiato 3 Yd Run (Hunter Tipton Pass to Nicholas Vattiato for Two-Point Conversion) — MTSU win probability +20.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:54: Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Toby Payne for 4 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK) — MRSH win probability +23.2 pts (now 54%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:12: Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to De'Andre Tamarez for 24 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK) — MRSH win probability +26.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:38: Michael Allen run for 11 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK) — MRSH win probability +7.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8MRSH made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:01MRSH 4th & 7 at MRSH 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:46MTSU 4th & 7 at MTSU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:22MRSH 4th & 8 at MRSH 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:22MRSH 4th & 8 at MRSH 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:36MTSU 4th & 10 at MRSH 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.2%
    51% to make
    Punt
    39.5%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:37MTSU 4th & 17 at MRSH 20, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−2.3
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    38.2%−5.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00MRSH 4th & 14 at MRSH 21, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−4.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:39MTSU 4th & 17 at MTSU 44, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−3.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:39MTSU 4th & 17 at MTSU 44, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−3.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:23MRSH 4th & 4 at MRSH 7, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:23MRSH 4th & 4 at MRSH 7, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:17MTSU 4th & 18 at MTSU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−7.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:26MTSU 4th & 18 at MTSU 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−4.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:26MTSU 4th & 2 at MRSH 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.6%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3MRSH made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 8:47MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:57MTSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:51MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 6:03MTSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 1:05MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:54MTSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    65.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    64.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:54MRSH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:12MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:38MRSH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−1.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MRSHDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 1:4749% → 48%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
51.4%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Ben Turner for 3 yds to the MRSH 28Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
51.5%
PENALTY MARS False Start (Adams,Shun'Markus) 5 yards from MARS28 to MARS23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+9
51.5%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 9 yds to the MRSH 32Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
51.6%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 1 yd to the MRSH 33Similar
Q1 13:01
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-5
51.8%
PENALTY MARS False Start (Green-McKnight,Jadarius) 5 yards from MARS33 to MARS28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:01
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
51.8%
Nathan Totten punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jekail Middlebrook at the MTSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:5252% → 52%
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
51.8%
(12:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Middlebrook,Jekail rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MTSU35 (Smith,Cam) PENALTY MTSU Holding 10 yards from MTSU30 to MTSU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 20
OWN 20
+15
51.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Nahzae Cox for 15 yds to the MTSU 35Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
52.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass intercepted Daytione Smith return for no gain to the MTSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 3TD
7 plays · 40 yds · 3:0349% → 51%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
51.5%
Michael Allen run for 6 yds to the MTSU 34Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+4
51.4%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 4 yds to the MTSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
51.4%
Michael Allen run for 5 yds to the MTSU 25Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+19
51.3%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Toby Payne for 19 yds to the MTSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
51.4%
Michael Allen run for 3 yds to the MTSU 3Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
51.4%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for no gain to the MTSU 3Similar
Q1 8:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
49.0%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Toby Payne for 3 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3550% → 54%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+72
49.7%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 72 yds to the MRSH 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
53.5%
N. Vattiato pass to N. Cox for 3 yds for a TD (J. Hathaway KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 5TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5748% → 51%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
52.3%
Michael Allen run for 2 yds to the MRSH 27Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
52.2%
Michael Allen run for 5 yds to the MRSH 32Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+68
48.9%
C. Del Rio-Wilson pass to D. Lacey for 68 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3749% → 54%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
49.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Rickey Hunt Jr. for 34 yds to the MRSH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
53.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Amorion Walker for 41 yds for a TD (Jacob Hathaway KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 7TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:4748% → 55%
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
52.5%
Demarcus Lacey run for 32 yds to the MTSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
51.5%
Justin Williams-Thomas run for 7 yds to the MTSU 36Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+6
51.4%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 6 yds to the MTSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+20
51.2%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Toby Payne for 20 yds to the MTSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
51.0%
PENALTY MARS False Start (Slappy,Jalen) 5 yards from MTSU10 to MTSU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+7
51.2%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 7 yds to the MTSU 8Similar
Q1 2:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
50.2%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass incomplete to Demarcus LaceySimilar
Q1 2:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
50.7%
(02:30) No Huddle-Shotgun Del Rio-Wilson,Carlos pass incomplete short right to Tamarez,De'Andre thrown to MTSU04 QB hurried by Johnson,Reggie PENALTY MTSU Holding (Lowe,Jackson) 4 yards from MTSU08 to MTSU04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
50.1%
Justin Williams-Thomas run for 2 yds to the MTSU 2Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
50.1%
Justin Williams-Thomas run for no gain to the MTSU 2Similar
Q1 1:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
45.1%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 2 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1147% → 45%
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
46.8%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 5 yds to the MTSU 30Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-2
46.8%
Nicholas Vattiato run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTSU 28 Nicholas Vattiato fumbled, recovered by MRSH Nicholas VattiatoSimilar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
45.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Nahzae CoxSimilar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
45.4%
Ashton Logan punt for 49 yds , Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw returns for no gain to the MRSH 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:1554% → 54%
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
46.2%
Michael Allen run for 4 yds to the MRSH 27Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+6
45.3%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw for 6 yds to the MRSH 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
45.1%
Michael Allen run for 4 yds to the MRSH 37Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 6
OWN 37
0
44.5%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass incomplete to Antonio HarmonSimilar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 6
OWN 37
-2
44.8%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson sacked by Reggie Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the MRSH 35Similar
Q2 12:22
4TH & 8
OWN 35
+17
46.0%
Nathan Totten punt for 52 yds , Jekail Middlebrook returns for 17 yds to the MTSU 30Similar
Q2 12:22
4TH & 8
OWN 35
+17
46.0%
Nathan Totten punt for 52 yds , Jekail Middlebrook returns for 17 yds to the MTSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10FG
8 plays · 49 yds · 2:3946% → 47%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
45.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Jekail MiddlebrookSimilar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+6
45.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jekail Middlebrook for 6 yds to the MTSU 25Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+43
45.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Nahzae Cox for 43 yds to the MRSH 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
48.4%
AJ Jones pass incomplete to Myles ButlerSimilar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
48.3%
Jekail Middlebrook run for no gain to the MRSH 32Similar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 10
OPP 32
0
46.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to AJ JonesSimilar
Q2 9:36
4TH & 10
OPP 32
+50
47.0%
Jacob Hathaway 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 11FUMBLE
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:4051% → 56%
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
48.6%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Ben Turner for 11 yds to the MRSH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
47.7%
Michael Allen run for 6 yds to the MRSH 42Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+11
46.9%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Ben Turner for 11 yds to the MTSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+17
45.2%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw for 17 yds to the MTSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
44.0%
Michael Allen run for 4 yds to the MTSU 26Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 6
OPP 26
-9
43.7%
Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw run for a loss of 9 yards to the MTSU 35 Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw fumbled, recovered by MRSH Zeion Simpson-SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12FG
16 plays · 45 yds · 4:5645% → 50%
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
45.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to AJ Jones for 4 yds to the MTSU 39Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+16
47.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Nahzae Cox for 16 yds to the MRSH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
48.1%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 7 yds to the MRSH 38Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+10
48.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Nahzae Cox for 10 yds to the MRSH 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
48.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-10
48.7%
(04:04) No Huddle-Shotgun Vattiato,Nicholas pass incomplete deep right to Cox,Nahzae thrown to MARS03 PENALTY MTSU Holding (Otts,Jacob) 10 yards from MARS28 to MARS38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 20
OPP 38
+12
46.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Hunter Tipton for 12 yds to the MRSH 26Similar
Q2 3:17
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+13
47.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jekail Middlebrook for 13 yds to the MRSH 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-10
48.4%
(02:42) No Huddle-Shotgun Middlebrook,Jekail rush middle for 10 yards gain to the MARS03 (Myers,Marvae) PENALTY MTSU Holding (Poticher,Evan) 10 yards from MARS13 to MARS23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 20
OPP 23
+6
47.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 6 yds to the MRSH 17Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 14
OPP 17
-8
53.4%
Myles Butler sacked by Darrell Sweeting for a loss of 8 yards to the MRSH 25Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 22
OPP 25
+5
50.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Rickey Hunt Jr. for 5 yds to the MRSH 20Similar
Q2 1:37
4TH & 17
OPP 20
+38
49.5%
Jacob Hathaway 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:2951% → 47%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
49.4%
Justin Williams-Thomas run for 2 yds to the MRSH 27Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
49.4%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass incomplete to Adrian NortonSimilar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-6
50.8%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the MRSH 21Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
52.7%
Nathan Totten punt for 58 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 19 yds · 4:1552% → 49%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Amorion WalkerSimilar
Q3 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
51.5%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 4 yds to the MTSU 29Similar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+12
50.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 12 yds to the MTSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
54.5%
(13:34) No Huddle-Shotgun Vattiato,Nicholas pass complete short right to Tipton,Hunter caught at MTSU45, for 7 yards to the MTSU48, End Of Play PENALTY MARS Holding (Sweeting,Darrell) 10 yards from MTSU41 to MARS49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
55.3%
PENALTY MTSU False Start (Tipton,Hunter) 5 yards from MARS49 to MTSU46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 15
OWN 46
0
52.4%
Jekail Middlebrook run for no gain to the MTSU 46Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+8
52.0%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 8 yds to the MRSH 46Similar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 7
OPP 46
-10
54.5%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Cam Smith for a loss of 10 yards to the MTSU 44Similar
Q3 10:39
4TH & 17
OWN 44
0
49.2%
Ashton Logan punt for 55 ydsSimilar
Q3 10:39
4TH & 17
OWN 44
0
49.2%
Ashton Logan punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:0550% → 47%
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
50.4%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 1 yd to the MRSH 4 Carlos Del Rio-Wilson fumbled, recovered by MRSH De'Andre TamarezSimilar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+3
50.8%
Antwan Roberts run for 3 yds to the MRSH 7Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 4
OWN 7
0
52.0%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for no gain to the MRSH 7Similar
Q3 8:23
4TH & 4
OWN 7
0
53.2%
Nathan Totten punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jekail Middlebrook at the MTSU 43Similar
Q3 8:23
4TH & 4
OWN 7
0
53.2%
Nathan Totten punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jekail Middlebrook at the MTSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 2:1752% → 78%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+26
51.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Amorion Walker for 26 yds to the MRSH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
56.0%
Rickey Hunt Jr. run for 3 yds to the MRSH 38Similar
Q3 6:52
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+15
56.1%
(06:58) No Huddle-Shotgun Vattiato,Nicholas pass incomplete deep middle to Cox,Nahzae thrown to MARS00 broken up by Myers,Marvae PENALTY MARS Pass Interference (Myers,Marvae) 15 yards from MARS38 to MARS23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
57.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Kason StokesSimilar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+20
57.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jekail Middlebrook for 20 yds to the MRSH 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
77.8%
Nicholas Vattiato 3 Yd Run (Hunter Tipton Pass to Nicholas Vattiato for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 17TD
15 plays · 65 yds · 4:1829% → 54%
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
70.8%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to De'Andre Tamarez for 9 yds to the MRSH 44Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 1
OWN 44
0
68.2%
Michael Allen run for no gain to the MRSH 44Similar
Q3 3:36
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+1
69.2%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 1 yd to the MRSH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
69.9%
Demarcus Lacey run for 10 yds to the MTSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
68.5%
Michael Allen run for 1 yd to the MTSU 44Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 9
OPP 44
-5
68.6%
JacQai Long sacked by Damonte Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the MTSU 49 JacQai Long fumbled, recovered by MRSH Tariq Montgomery , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 2:33
3RD & 14
OPP 49
+9
72.3%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 9 yds to the MTSU 40Similar
Q3 2:02
4TH & 5
OPP 40
+15
71.2%
(02:02) Totten,Nathan punt 38 yards to the MTSU02 PENALTY MTSU Personal Foul (Smith,Korey) 15 yards from MTSU40 to MTSU25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
66.5%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 6 yds to the MTSU 19Similar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+1
68.3%
Justin Williams-Thomas run for 1 yd to the MTSU 18Similar
Q3 0:46
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+4
70.6%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 4 yds to the MTSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
68.7%
(00:16) No Huddle-Shotgun Del Rio-Wilson,Carlos pass incomplete short right to Norton,Adrian thrown to MTSU00 broken up by Gaston,Juwon PENALTY MTSU Pass Interference (Lowe,Jackson) 12 yards from MTSU14 to MTSU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
68.8%
Justin Williams-Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTSU 4Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
45.7%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Toby Payne for 4 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · -8 yds · 1:2857% → 53%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
56.5%
(14:51) No Huddle-Shotgun Middlebrook,Jekail rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MTSU28 (Ward,Braydin) PENALTY MTSU Illegal Shift 5 yards from MTSU25 to MTSU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
56.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Tayvion GallowaySimilar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+7
55.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Nahzae Cox for 7 yds to the MTSU 27Similar
Q4 13:46
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-10
54.1%
(13:52) No Huddle-Shotgun Vattiato,Nicholas pass complete short right to Middlebrook,Jekail caught at MTSU29, for 12 yards to the MTSU39 (Pierre-Louis,Joshua) PENALTY MTSU Holding (Otts,Jacob) 10 yards from MTSU27 to MTSU17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
53.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Jekail MiddlebrookSimilar
Q4 13:17
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+8
52.8%
Ashton Logan punt for 47 yds , Demarcus Lacey returns for 8 yds to the MRSH 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 19TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 2:5352% → 81%
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
48.4%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Michael Allen for 7 yds to the MTSU 49Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+4
46.6%
Michael Allen run for 4 yds to the MTSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
47.1%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass incomplete to Adrian NortonSimilar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-10
47.2%
Marshall Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MTSU 46Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+11
47.7%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to De'Andre Tamarez for 11 yds to the MTSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
45.3%
Michael Allen run for 11 yds to the MTSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
18.9%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to De'Andre Tamarez for 24 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:3127% → 24%
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
27.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Evan PoticherSimilar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+12
27.0%
(09:55) No Huddle-Shotgun Vattiato,Nicholas pass incomplete short middle to Walker,Amorion thrown to MTSU21 broken up by Myers,Marvae, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MARS Pass Interference (Myers,Marvae) 12 yards from MTSU10 to MTSU22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-4
27.2%
Cam'ron Lacy run for a loss of 4 yards to the MTSU 18Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 14
OWN 18
0
26.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Jekail MiddlebrookSimilar
Q4 9:01
3RD & 14
OWN 18
-4
25.2%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Jamaal Whyce Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the MTSU 14Similar
Q4 8:26
4TH & 18
OWN 14
0
23.8%
Ashton Logan punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Lacey at the MRSH 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 21TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 3:4079% → 96%
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
20.7%
Michael Allen run for 1 yd to the MRSH 34Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
20.4%
Michael Allen run for no gain to the MRSH 34Similar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+21
20.1%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 21 yds to the MTSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+21
14.6%
Antwan Roberts run for 21 yds to the MTSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+13
12.1%
Antwan Roberts run for 13 yds to the MTSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
4.3%
Michael Allen run for 11 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:544% → 4%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
4.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 18 yds to the MTSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
4.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Nahzae CoxSimilar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+8
4.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jekail Middlebrook for 8 yds to the MRSH 49Similar
Q4 3:34
3RD & 2
OPP 49
0
4.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Nahzae CoxSimilar
Q4 3:26
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
4.4%
Nicholas Vattiato run for no gain to the MRSH 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 23END OF GAME
10 plays · 20 yds · 3:1897% → 98%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
2.9%
Michael Allen run for 5 yds to the MTSU 46Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+8
2.8%
Michael Allen run for 8 yds to the MTSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
2.7%
Michael Allen run for 8 yds to the MTSU 30Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+1
2.5%
Michael Allen run for 1 yd to the MTSU 29Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+1
1.9%
Michael Allen run for 1 yd to the MTSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
1.8%
C. Del Rio-Wilson takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 29
-2
1.8%
C. Del Rio-Wilson takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:12
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to De'Andre Tamarez for 24 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK)
-26.4
TD · Q4 14:54
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Toby Payne for 4 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK)
-23.2
TD · Q3 5:54
Nicholas Vattiato 3 Yd Run (Hunter Tipton Pass to Nicholas Vattiato for Two-Point Conversion)
+20.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com