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USM

Southern Miss 20 at Louisiana Tech 30

LT
2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Joe Aillet Stadium
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Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:00 · John Hoyet Chance punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USM 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 110Home team on offense+22.7Score differential+16.7Pregame prior+5.0Garbage-time factor+7.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:46: Omiri Wiggins run for 3 yds for a TD (Drew Henderson KICK) — LT win probability +4.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:23: Clay Thevenin run for 1 yd for a TD (Drew Henderson KICK) — LT win probability +12.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 0:58: Reed Harradine 30 yd FG GOOD — USM win probability +4.5 pts (now 8%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:22: Davis Dalton 34 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Creighton Wilbanks Kick) — USM win probability +4.8 pts (now 7%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:22: Timeout Louisiana Tech, clock 00:22 — LT win probability +5.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 7 of 11USM made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 14:17USM 4th & 7 at USM 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:11LT 4th & 1 at USM 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    60.1%−0.2
    77% to make
    Punt
    59.4%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:10LT 4th & 4 at USM 6, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.2%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    59.1%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:29USM 4th & 3 at LT 20, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.1%−0.2
    75% to make
    Punt
    36.9%−2.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:19USM 4th & 8 at USM 49, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:36LT 4th & 6 at LT 48, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:28USM 4th & 3 at LT 19, down 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.3%−0.5
    77% to make
    Punt
    20.9%−4.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:23LT 4th & 1 at USM 1, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    78.5%−1.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    73.5%−6.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:59LT 4th & 11 at LT 47, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:56USM 4th & 1 at USM 33, down 20
    Close callPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:00LT 4th & 8 at LT 37, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:34USM 4th & 1 at LT 1, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    2.6%−1.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    -2.0%−6.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:56LT 4th & 3 at LT 8, up 20
    Close callPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:58USM 4th & 9 at LT 12, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.7%
    86% to make
    Punt
    -0.9%−3.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:38LT 4th & 3 at LT 46, up 17
    Close callPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:47USM 4th & 4 at USM 29, down 17
    Close callPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:52LT 4th & 2 at LT 36, up 17
    Close callPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%−0.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:24USM 4th & 12 at USM 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:14LT 4th & 8 at LT 24, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:42USM 4th & 5 at LT 43, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    1.9%−0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:50LT 4th & 8 at LT 42, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4USM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:43LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:15USM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:46LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:01LT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    70.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:23LT Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:22USM Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3638% → 38%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.3%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Carl ChesterSimilar
Q1 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
62.3%
Robert Briggs run for 3 yds to the USM 28Similar
Q1 14:25
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
62.3%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Carl ChesterSimilar
Q1 14:17
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+1
62.3%
Jack Murley punt for 47 yds , Dedrick Latulas returns for 1 yd to the LT 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2TD
2 plays · 74 yds · 0:0762% → 63%
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+73
62.2%
Blake Baker pass complete to Eli Finley for 73 yds to the USM 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.8%
Blake Baker run for 1 yd for a TD (Drew Henderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2237% → 38%
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
62.7%
Robert Briggs run for 3 yds to the USM 28Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
62.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Bralon Brown for 3 yds to the USM 31Similar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+39
63.0%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Carl Chester for 39 yds to the LT 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
61.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kyirin Heath for 30 yds for a TD (Reed Harradine KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4FG
11 plays · 69 yds · 3:4462% → 63%
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+47
62.2%
Blake Baker pass complete to Eli Finley for 47 yds to the USM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
62.6%
Omiri Wiggins run for 2 yds to the USM 26Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+5
62.7%
Omiri Wiggins run for 5 yds to the USM 21Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+2
62.5%
Omiri Wiggins run for 2 yds to the USM 19Similar
Q1 10:11
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+7
62.3%
Clay Thevenin run for 7 yds to the USM 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
62.8%
Clay Thevenin run for 1 yd to the USM 11Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+1
62.9%
Clay Thevenin run for 1 yd to the USM 10Similar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+4
62.5%
Blake Baker pass complete to Eli Finley for 4 yds to the USM 6Similar
Q1 8:10
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+24
62.9%
Drew Henderson 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5FG
13 plays · 55 yds · 4:3537% → 39%
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-13
62.8%
(08:10) Shotgun Braxton,Braylon rush right for 0 yards to the USM25 (Oguns,Emmanuel; Leota,Sifa) PENALTY USM Illegal Use Of Hands (Maui,Aloali'i) 13 yards from USM25 to USM12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:28
1ST & 23
OWN 12
+13
62.9%
Matt Jones run for 13 yds to the USM 25Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
62.9%
Matt Jones run for 4 yds to the USM 29Similar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+23
63.0%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Tychaun Chapman for 8 yds to the LT 37 for a 1ST down Louisiana Tech Penalty, Targeting (Jakari Foster) to the LT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
61.9%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Micah Davis for 2 yds to the LT 46Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-2
61.9%
Matt Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the LT 48Similar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+7
62.4%
(04:27) Shotgun Braxton,Braylon pass incomplete short right to Davis,Micah thrown to LAT39 PENALTY LAT Pass Interference (Butler,Amari) 7 yards from LAT48 to LAT41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+14
61.8%
Robert Briggs run for 14 yds to the LT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
61.2%
Robert Briggs run for 1 yd to the LT 26Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+6
61.4%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Robert Briggs for 6 yds to the LT 20Similar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 3
OPP 20
0
61.7%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Elijah MetcalfSimilar
Q1 3:29
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+38
60.6%
Reed Harradine 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 2:3062% → 68%
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
61.6%
Blake Baker pass complete to Eli Finley for 18 yds to the USM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
62.9%
Blake Baker run for 9 yds to the USM 38Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+3
63.1%
Blake Baker run for 3 yds to the USM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
63.3%
Blake Baker pass incomplete to Devin GandySimilar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+15
63.3%
(02:02) Shotgun Baker,Blake rush right for 2 yards loss to the USM37 (McKinney,Jaden) PENALTY USM Face Mask (McKinney,Jaden) 15 yards from USM35 to USM20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
63.3%
(01:57) Shotgun Baker,Blake pass incomplete deep right to Gandy,Devin thrown to USM00 PENALTY USM Illegal Substitution (Moten,Josh) 5 yards from USM20 to USM15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 5
OPP 15
+9
63.4%
Omiri Wiggins run for 9 yds to the USM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
63.4%
Omiri Wiggins run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 7Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
63.4%
PENALTY USM Offside (Harper,Joseph) 4 yards from USM07 to USM03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
67.6%
Omiri Wiggins run for 3 yds for a TD (Drew Henderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7INT TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:3934% → 31%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
65.9%
Robert Briggs run for 12 yds to the USM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
65.5%
Braylon Braxton sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the USM 33Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 14
OWN 33
+2
66.3%
Matt Jones run for 2 yds to the USM 35Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+15
66.8%
Braylon Braxton run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
50
-48
69.4%
Braylon Braxton pass intercepted Kolbe Fields return for 48 yds for a TD (Drew Henderson PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 2:3029% → 28%
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.1%
Braylon Braxton run for no gain to the USM 25Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
71.5%
Braylon Braxton run for no gain to the USM 25Similar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+22
72.0%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kyirin Heath for 22 yds to the USM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
70.6%
Matt Jones run for 8 yds to the LT 45Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 2
OPP 45
-6
69.9%
Robert Briggs run for a loss of 6 yards to the USM 49Similar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
71.2%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Micah DavisSimilar
Q2 11:19
4TH & 8
OWN 49
+24
71.7%
Reed Harradine punt for 47 yds , Dedrick Latulas returns for 24 yds to the LT 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:3574% → 74%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+16
73.8%
Blake Baker run for 16 yds to the LT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
75.1%
Andrew Burnette run for 3 yds to the LT 47Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+1
75.3%
Clay Thevenin run for 1 yd to the LT 48Similar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 6
OWN 48
0
74.9%
Blake Baker pass incomplete to Marques Singleton Jr.Similar
Q2 9:36
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
74.3%
John Hoyet Chance punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Elijah Metcalf at the USM 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10MISSED FG
8 plays · 74 yds · 3:0326% → 27%
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
73.6%
Matt Jones run for 6 yds to the USM 13Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+42
73.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Carl Chester for 42 yds to the LT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
71.9%
Matt Jones run for 1 yd to the LT 44Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+18
72.4%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kadinn Morris for 18 yds to the LT 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
71.8%
Braylon Braxton run for 1 yd to the LT 25Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+6
72.3%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Micah Davis for 6 yds to the LT 19Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 3
OPP 19
0
72.8%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Micah DavisSimilar
Q2 6:28
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+37
73.4%
Reed Harradine 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 11TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 5:5975% → 91%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
75.2%
Omiri Wiggins run for 7 yds to the LT 27Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+3
75.7%
Blake Baker pass complete to Marques Singleton Jr. for 3 yds to the LT 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
75.9%
Blake Baker pass complete to Eli Finley for 7 yds to the LT 37Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+2
76.7%
Blake Baker pass complete to Omiri Wiggins for 2 yds to the LT 39Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+25
76.8%
Blake Baker pass complete to Devin Gandy for 25 yds to the USM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
78.2%
Clay Thevenin run for 1 yd to the USM 35Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+5
78.1%
(03:05) PENALTY USM Offside (Lewis,Brodarius) 5 yards from USM35 to USM30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+5
78.3%
Blake Baker pass complete to Omiri Wiggins for 5 yds to the USM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
78.8%
Omiri Wiggins run for 2 yds to the USM 23Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+1
79.8%
Amani Givens run for 1 yd to the USM 22Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+15
81.5%
Blake Baker pass complete to Marques Singleton Jr. for 15 yds to the USM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
80.7%
Blake Baker pass incomplete to Marques Singleton Jr.Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
80.5%
Blake Baker run for 4 yds to the USM 3Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
78.6%
Southern Miss Penalty, Defensive Offside (J'Mond Tapp) to the USM 1Similar
Q2 0:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.7%
Clay Thevenin run for 1 yd for a TD (Drew Henderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.8%
B. Braxton takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:3593% → 93%
Q3 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
92.8%
Blake Baker pass complete to Clay Thevenin for 17 yds to the LT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
93.2%
Blake Baker pass complete to Jalen Mickens for 4 yds to the USM 48Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 6
OPP 48
-5
93.2%
Blake Baker sacked by Garrick Ponder for a loss of 5 yards to the LT 47Similar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 11
OWN 47
0
93.3%
Blake Baker pass incomplete to Jalen MickensSimilar
Q3 12:59
4TH & 11
OWN 47
0
92.7%
John Hoyet Chance punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USM 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:558% → 8%
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
92.3%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kyirin Heath for 4 yds to the USM 28Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 6
OWN 28
0
92.0%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Elijah MetcalfSimilar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 6
OWN 28
0
91.9%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Elijah MetcalfSimilar
Q3 11:35
4TH & 6
OWN 28
+5
92.0%
(11:57) Harradine,Reed punt 33 yards to the LAT39 fair catch by Latulas,Dedrick at LAT39 PENALTY LAT Running Into The Kicker (Pierro,David) 5 yards from USM28 to USM33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:56
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
91.7%
Reed Harradine punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LT 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
93.9%
Blake Baker pass complete to Devin Gandy for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 34Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-5
93.8%
PENALTY LAT False Start (Christman,Hayden) 5 yards from LAT34 to LAT29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 16
OWN 29
-4
93.6%
Blake Baker sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the LT 25Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 20
OWN 25
+12
94.0%
Omiri Wiggins run for 12 yds to the LT 37Similar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
93.4%
John Hoyet Chance punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USM 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16DOWNS
12 plays · 86 yds · 5:116% → 5%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+23
93.6%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Carl Chester for 23 yds to the USM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
93.2%
Robert Briggs run for 19 yds to the LT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
92.9%
Robert Briggs run for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 46Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+5
93.7%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 5 yds to the LT 41Similar
Q3 8:09
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+14
93.9%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Carl Chester for 14 yds to the LT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
93.1%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Elijah MetcalfSimilar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
93.5%
Robert Briggs run for 2 yds to the LT 25Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+24
94.1%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 24 yds to the LT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
93.5%
Matt Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 2Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
93.6%
Matt Jones run for 1 yd to the LT 1Similar
Q3 5:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.4%
Braylon Braxton run for no gain to the LT 1Similar
Q3 4:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.8%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Kadinn MorrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3295% → 95%
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
95.1%
Blake Baker pass incomplete to Devin GandySimilar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+5
95.1%
Omiri Wiggins run for 5 yds to the LT 6Similar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 5
OWN 6
+2
95.3%
Omiri Wiggins run for 2 yds to the LT 8Similar
Q3 2:56
4TH & 3
OWN 8
+4
95.1%
John Hoyet Chance punt for 60 yds , Elijah Metcalf returns for 4 yds to the USM 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18FG
7 plays · 52 yds · 1:514% → 8%
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
96.1%
Matt Jones run for 2 yds to the USM 38Similar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+20
96.5%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Micah Davis for 20 yds to the LT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+29
96.5%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Bralon Brown for 15 yds to the LT 27 for a 1ST down Louisiana Tech Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Mekhi Mason) to the LT 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
96.5%
Matt Jones run for 1 yd to the LT 12Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 9
OPP 12
0
96.5%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Kadinn MorrisSimilar
Q3 1:05
3RD & 9
OPP 12
0
96.9%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Matt JonesSimilar
Q3 0:58
4TH & 9
OPP 12
+30
92.4%
Reed Harradine 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:2094% → 96%
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
93.7%
Blake Baker pass complete to Devin Gandy for 14 yds to the LT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
94.8%
Blake Baker run for 1 yd to the LT 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
94.7%
Blake Baker run for no gain to the LT 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+6
94.6%
Blake Baker pass complete to Eli Finley for 6 yds to the LT 46Similar
Q4 13:38
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
95.6%
John Hoyet Chance punt for 43 yds , Elijah Metcalf returns for no gain to the USM 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:516% → 5%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
94.4%
Jaylin Carter run for 12 yds to the USM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
94.3%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Jaylin Carter for 5 yds to the USM 28Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+1
93.9%
Jaylin Carter run for 1 yd to the USM 29Similar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
94.0%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Carl ChesterSimilar
Q4 11:47
4TH & 4
OWN 29
+7
95.0%
Reed Harradine punt for 50 yds , Dedrick Latulas returns for 7 yds to the LT 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5596% → 97%
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
96.3%
Andrew Burnette run for 4 yds to the LT 32Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+4
96.2%
Andrew Burnette run for 4 yds to the LT 36Similar
Q4 11:47
3RD & 2
OWN 36
0
96.4%
Andrew Burnette run for no gain to the LT 36Similar
Q4 9:52
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
96.5%
John Hoyet Chance punt for 61 yds , Elijah Metcalf returns for no gain to the USM 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:284% → 4%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
95.9%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kadinn Morris for 5 yds to the USM 8Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+7
96.0%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Bralon Brown for 7 yds to the USM 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
95.8%
Matt Jones run for 1 yd to the USM 16Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+14
95.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Matt Jones for 14 yds to the USM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
95.5%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Carl ChesterSimilar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
95.7%
Jaylin Carter run for 3 yds to the USM 33Similar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
95.5%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Micah DavisSimilar
Q4 9:52
4TH & 7
OWN 33
-5
95.9%
PENALTY USM Delay Of Game (Harradine,Reed) 5 yards from USM33 to USM28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:24
4TH & 12
OWN 28
0
96.4%
Reed Harradine punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LT 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:1097% → 97%
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
96.9%
Omiri Wiggins run for 1 yd to the LT 23Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 9
OWN 23
-2
96.9%
Blake Baker run for a loss of 2 yards to the LT 21Similar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 11
OWN 21
+3
96.8%
Blake Baker run for 3 yds to the LT 24Similar
Q4 5:14
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
97.4%
John Hoyet Chance punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Elijah Metcalf at the USM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:323% → 2%
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
97.2%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kadinn Morris for 2 yds to the USM 41Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+11
97.2%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Bralon Brown for 11 yds to the LT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
97.1%
PENALTY USM Illegal Snap (Roman,Broderick) 5 yards from LAT48 to USM47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+2
97.2%
Braylon Braxton run for 2 yds to the USM 49Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+6
97.2%
Braylon Braxton run for 6 yds to the LT 45Similar
Q4 5:14
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+2
97.2%
Braylon Braxton run for 2 yds to the LT 43Similar
Q4 2:42
4TH & 5
OPP 43
+3
97.6%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Jaylin Carter for 3 yds to the LT 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5298% → 99%
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
98.4%
Blake Baker run for 2 yds to the LT 42Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-1
99.4%
Clay Thevenin run for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 41Similar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+1
99.4%
Blake Baker run for 1 yd to the LT 42Similar
Q4 1:50
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
99.3%
John Hoyet Chance punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 26TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 1:282% → 7%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
98.0%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kadinn Morris for 10 yds to the USM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
97.9%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Elijah MetcalfSimilar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+13
98.0%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Jaylin Carter for 13 yds to the USM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
97.9%
Shotgun Braxton,Braylon pass incomplete deep right to Davis,Micah thrown to LAT15 broken up by Carter,Kameron PENALTY LAT Illegal Substitution (Richard,Michael) 5 yards from USM43 to USM48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 5
OWN 48
+1
97.7%
Braylon Braxton run for 1 yd to the USM 49Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+7
97.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Davis Dalton for 7 yds to the LT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
97.7%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Davis Dalton for a 1ST down Louisiana Tech Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kameron Carter) to the LT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
97.5%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Jermane HayesSimilar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
97.5%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Kyirin HeathSimilar
Q4 0:22
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+34
92.6%
Davis Dalton 34 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
98.2%
B. Baker takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:23
Clay Thevenin run for 1 yd for a TD (Drew Henderson KICK)
+12.2
TD · Q4 0:22
Timeout Louisiana Tech, clock 00:22
+5.6
TD · Q4 0:22
Davis Dalton 34 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)
-4.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com