2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Williams Stadium (VA)
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Win probability · LIB
modelLIB aheadJMU aheadconfidence bandkey playLIB scoreJMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:55 · Jay Billingsley 47 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q3 8:06: Jay Billingsley 35 yd FG GOOD — LIB win probability +4.0 pts (now 52%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:32: Wayne Knight run for 1 yd for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK) — JMU win probability +19.9 pts (now 73%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:32: Timeout Liberty, clock 03:32 — LIB win probability +5.2 pts (now 33%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:07: Alonza Barnett III run for 9 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK) — JMU win probability +13.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:31: Alonza Barnett III run for 13 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK) — JMU win probability +2.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
LIB made the numbers' call on 9 of 9JMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 9:42JMU 4th & 14 at LIB 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.2% before the snapGo for it65.0%−0.217% to convertField goalTheir call65.2%74% to makePunt64.6%−0.6average punt
- Q1 7:01LIB 4th & 1 at JMU 49, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call35.3%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt35.0%−0.3average punt
- Q1 4:55LIB 4th & 9 at JMU 29, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.5% before the snapGo for it35.4%−0.131% to convertField goalTheir call35.5%58% to makePunt34.4%−1.1average punt
- Q2 11:51LIB 4th & 5 at LIB 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 39.5% before the snapGo for it39.6%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.8%average punt
- Q3 8:06LIB 4th & 15 at JMU 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.1% before the snapGo for it42.8%−3.615% to convertField goalTheir call46.4%81% to makePunt35.7%−10.7average punt
- Q3 1:59LIB 4th & 3 at LIB 32, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snapGo for it35.3%−0.652% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.9%average punt
- Q4 9:37LIB 4th & 5 at LIB 30, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snapGo for it12.1%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.2%average punt
- Q4 8:11JMU 4th & 5 at JMU 27, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.8% before the snapGo for it87.6%−0.440% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.0%average punt
- Q4 6:36LIB 4th & 14 at LIB 27, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snapGo for it8.6%−0.917% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.5%average punt
- Q4 1:56LIB 4th & 1 at LIB 34, down 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.3%−0.4average punt
- Q4 0:50LIB 4th & 7 at JMU 44, down 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.5%37% to convertField goal1.4%−<0.127% to makePunt1.2%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
JMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q3 3:32JMU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.9%97% to makeGo for two61.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 11:07JMU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.9%97% to makeGo for two83.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 2:31JMU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartJMUDrive 1FG14 plays · 54 yds · 5:0771% → 69%
Q1 14:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
29.2%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Nick DeGennaro for 11 yds to the JMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+9
29.7%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Landon Ellis for 9 yds to the LIB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
30.2%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Logan Kyle for 11 yds to the LIB 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 2FG12 plays · 46 yds · 4:3831% → 34%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 3INT14 plays · 70 yds · 4:4767% → 67%
Q1 2:54
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+4
33.2%
(02:57) No Huddle-Shotgun Barnett III,Alonza pass incomplete short right to DeGennaro,Nick thrown to JMU49, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY LU Pass Interference (Green,Brylan) 4 yards from JMU45 to JMU49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-15
33.0%
James Madison Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the JMU 37Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 22
OWN 37
+30
34.1%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Jaylan Sanchez for 30 yds to the LIB 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+15
33.2%
(01:14) No Huddle-Shotgun Barnett III,Alonza pass incomplete deep left to Ellis,Landon thrown to LU00 PENALTY LU Pass Interference (Williams,Amarian) 15 yards from LU29 to LU14, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
32.5%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Jaylan Sanchez for 4 yds to the LIB 10Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 5
0
33.3%
Alonza Barnett III pass intercepted, touchback. Brylan Green return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 2:5836% → 37%
LIBDrive 5FG17 plays · 59 yds · 6:4744% → 52%
Q3 11:26
2ND & 3
OPP 44
-5
48.8%
(11:28) PENALTY LU False Start (Williams,Christian) 5 yards from JMU44 to JMU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+24
50.4%
Michael Merdinger pass complete to Jamari Person for 12 yds to the JMU 23 for a 1ST down James Madison Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Amar Thomas) to the JMU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-10
50.8%
(09:55) No Huddle-Shotgun Houck,Ethan rush left for 1 yard gain to the JMU10 (Weathersby,Gannon) PENALTY LU Holding (Engbers,Joep) 10 yards from JMU11 to JMU21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 24
OPP 25
+9
47.9%
Michael Merdinger pass complete to Jacob Jenkins for 9 yds to the JMU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 6TD11 plays · 81 yds · 4:2049% → 73%
LIBDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2533% → 31%
Q3 1:59
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
31.2%
Max Morgan punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Wayne Knight at the JMU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 8TD14 plays · 67 yds · 5:4471% → 89%
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
28.9%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Wayne Knight for 12 yds to the JMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
27.3%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Wayne Knight for 2 yds to the JMU 47Similar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+5
27.3%
PENALTY LU Offside (Pirolli,Nathan) 5 yards from JMU47 to LU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
26.1%
PENALTY JMU False Start (Sweazie,Carter) 5 yards from LU42 to LU47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+10
27.1%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Landon Ellis for 10 yds to the LIB 37Similar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-8
23.6%
Ayo Adeyi run for 2 yds to the LIB 16 James Madison Penalty, Offensive Holding (Pat McMurtrie) to the LIB 26Similar
Q4 11:56
1ST & 18
OPP 26
+4
24.1%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Nick DeGennaro for 4 yds to the LIB 22Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 14
OPP 22
+13
24.0%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Wayne Knight for 13 yds to the LIB 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1913% → 10%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2189% → 90%
LIBDrive 11PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 1:2810% → 7%
JMUDrive 12TD10 plays · 68 yds · 3:5893% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:32
Wayne Knight run for 1 yd for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)
-19.9
TD · Q4 11:07
Alonza Barnett III run for 9 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)
-13
TD · Q3 3:32
Timeout Liberty, clock 03:32
+5.2