2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Pitbull Stadium
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Win probability · FIU
modelFIU aheadDEL aheadconfidence bandkey playFIU scoreDEL score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:45 · Devonte Lyons run for 2 yds to the DEL 45 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:55: Jo Silver run for 14 yds for a TD (Nate Reed KICK) — DEL win probability +5.4 pts (now 40%) (top driver: DEL has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:26: Nick Minicucci pass complete to Nick Laboy for 2 yds for a TD (Nate Reed KICK) — DEL win probability +9.7 pts (now 56%) (top driver: DEL has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:53: Nick Minicucci pass complete to Nick Laboy for 14 yds for a TD (Nate Reed KICK) — DEL win probability +20.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: DEL has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:22: Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Alex Perry for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — FIU win probability +10.8 pts (now 18%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:45: Nick Minicucci pass complete to Viron Ellison Jr. for 9 yds for a TD (Nate Reed KICK) — DEL win probability +8.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: DEL has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FIU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10DEL made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 10:40DEL 4th & 2 at FIU 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call37.2%56% to convertField goal37.1%−0.177% to makePunt36.6%−0.6average punt
- Q1 9:31DEL 4th & 6 at FIU 7, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.2% before the snapGo for it37.2%−<0.132% to convertField goalTheir call37.2%91% to makePunt36.4%−0.8average punt
- Q1 4:17DEL 4th & 12 at DEL 18, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.7% before the snapGo for it37.3%−0.622% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.9%average punt
- Q2 14:56DEL 4th & 5 at FIU 20, down 4Close callWent for it · 36.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call36.2%−0.140% to convertField goal36.3%75% to makePunt33.8%−2.5average punt
- Q2 7:27FIU 4th & 9 at FIU 38, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snapGo for it55.2%−0.932% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.1%average punt
- Q2 2:37FIU 4th & 17 at FIU 18, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snapGo for it40.0%−2.013% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.0%average punt
- Q2 1:46FIU 4th & 15 at FIU 20, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snapGo for it30.1%−1.616% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.7%average punt
- Q2 0:01FIU 4th & 8 at DEL 29, down 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.7% before the snapGo for it30.8%−0.334% to convertField goalTheir call31.1%58% to makePunt26.7%−4.4average punt
- Q3 11:17FIU 4th & 2 at DEL 34, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call28.2%57% to convertField goal25.9%−2.347% to makePunt25.0%−3.2average punt
- Q3 9:24FIU 4th & 8 at DEL 18, down 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.2% before the snapGo for it23.8%−1.232% to convertField goalTheir call25.1%79% to makePunt17.6%−7.5average punt
- Q4 15:00FIU 4th & 4 at FIU 43, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.2%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt6.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 12:22FIU 4th & 5 at DEL 5, down 21Close callWent for it · 5.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.9%−<0.133% to convertField goal4.9%92% to makePunt1.4%−3.5average punt
- Q4 4:45FIU 4th & 2 at DEL 47, down 22Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.0%−0.2average punt
- Q4 0:00FIU 4th & 1 at DEL 1, down 22Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.4%59% to convertField goal0.8%−0.694% to makePunt0.5%−1.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2DEL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 3:32FIU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.6%97% to makeGo for two64.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:55DEL Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.3%97% to makeGo for two40.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:26DEL Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.4%97% to makeGo for two54.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:53DEL Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.1%97% to makeGo for two94.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:22FIU Touchdown, down 15 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick11.2%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call11.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:45DEL Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartDELDrive 1FG14 plays · 68 yds · 5:1733% → 34%
Q1 14:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
67.2%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Sean Wilson for 7 yds to the DEL 34Similar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+32
67.0%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Sean Wilson for 32 yds to the FIU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
66.7%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Ja'Carree Kelly for 4 yds to the FIU 23Similar
Q1 10:40
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+8
66.7%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Connor Witthoft for 8 yds to the FIU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+4
66.2%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Ja'Carree Kelly for 4 yds to the FIU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 2INT10 plays · 64 yds · 3:3266% → 66%
Q1 8:50
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+6
66.4%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Alex Perry for 6 yds to the FIU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+8
66.2%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dallas Payne for 8 yds to the FIU 46Similar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
67.0%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kyle McNeal for 5 yds to the DEL 10Similar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
65.7%
Keyone Jenkins pass intercepted, touchback. Mysonne Pollard return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 3PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2535% → 34%
FIUDrive 4TD4 plays · 54 yds · 0:3365% → 69%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+47
65.2%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Alex Perry for 47 yds to the DEL 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 5DOWNS10 plays · 41 yds · 3:1733% → 33%
FIUDrive 6INT3 plays · 3 yds · 0:4068% → 67%
DELDrive 7TD6 plays · 55 yds · 1:3933% → 40%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
66.6%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Connor Witthoft for 6 yds to the FIU 49Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+10
66.2%
(13:28) No Huddle-Shotgun Minicucci,Nick pass incomplete deep left to Wilson,Sean thrown to FIU00 PENALTY FIU Holding (Clark,Mister) 10 yards from FIU49 to FIU39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 8PUNT11 plays · 13 yds · 4:1962% → 57%
Q2 11:06
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
61.4%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to C'Quan Jnopierre for 5 yds to the FIU 29Similar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
60.8%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kyle McNeal for 8 yds to the FIU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 8
OWN 39
-5
59.2%
PENALTY FIU False Start (Perry,Alex) 5 yards from FIU39 to FIU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:27
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
56.7%
Trey Wilhoit punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kyre Duplessis at the DEL 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 9TD9 plays · 77 yds · 2:5741% → 56%
Q2 7:17
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+15
58.9%
Florida International Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Mister Clark) to the DEL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+6
56.7%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Sean Wilson for 6 yds to the DEL 48Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+5
56.2%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Jo Silver for 5 yds to the FIU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+18
54.0%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Elijah Sessoms for 18 yds to the FIU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
53.4%
(04:36) No Huddle-Shotgun Minicucci,Nick pass incomplete short right to Wilson,Sean thrown to FIU00 PENALTY FIU Pass Interference (Evans III,Victor) 13 yards from FIU15 to FIU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
43.7%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Nick Laboy for 2 yds for a TD (Nate Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 10PUNT RETURN TD5 plays · -7 yds · 1:3746% → 44%
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.7%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Semaj Demps for no gain to the FIU 25Similar
Q2 3:26
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-7
44.2%
Keyone Jenkins sacked by Keyshawn Hunter for a loss of 7 yards to the FIU 18Similar
Q2 2:37
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+68
44.2%
Trey Wilhoit punt for 50 yds , Kyre Duplessis returns for 68 yds for a TD (Nate Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 11PUNT7 plays · -5 yds · 0:4043% → 34%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 12INT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:2774% → 78%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+33
25.8%
(01:42) No Huddle-Shotgun Minicucci,Nick pass complete deep right to Wilson,Sean caught at FIU21, for 33 yards to the FIU21 (Levells,Ashton) PENALTY DEL Holding offsetting FIU Holding offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
21.9%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Kyre Duplessis for 2 yds to the DEL 48Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 8
OWN 48
-5
22.1%
Nick Minicucci pass intercepted Jai-Ayviauynn Celestine return for 5 yds to the DEL 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 13MISSED FG6 plays · 18 yds · 1:0237% → 33%
Q2 0:42
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+14
36.1%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Devonte Lyons for 14 yds to the DEL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
35.9%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Justin Cayenne for 5 yds to the DEL 26Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 1
OPP 22
-7
29.6%
Keyone Jenkins sacked by Dillon Trainer for a loss of 7 yards to the DEL 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 14FG14 plays · 59 yds · 5:2632% → 31%
Q3 14:09
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+13
30.6%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Justin Cayenne for 13 yds to the FIU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+5
29.9%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kyle McNeal for 5 yds to the DEL 34Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
28.8%
Florida International Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 15TD16 plays · 79 yds · 6:2574% → 95%
Q3 8:44
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+4
25.4%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Elijah Sessoms for 4 yds to the DEL 28Similar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
4.8%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Nick Laboy for 14 yds for a TD (Nate Reed KICK)Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+4
5.4%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Sean Wilson for 4 yds to the DEL 36Similar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
5.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Minicucci,Nick pass incomplete short left to Duplessis,Kyre thrown to DEL48 PENALTY DEL Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Demboski,Steven) 5 yards from DEL43 to DEL38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 16
OWN 37
+7
5.2%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Max Patterson for 7 yds to the DEL 44Similar
Q3 2:47
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+15
5.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Minicucci,Nick pass incomplete short left to Wilson,Sean thrown to FIU40 PENALTY FIU Pass Interference (Thompson,Preston) 15 yards from DEL44 to FIU41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+16
4.9%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Sean Wilson for 16 yds to the FIU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 16TD12 plays · 75 yds · 5:318% → 18%
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
7.7%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dallas Payne for 4 yds to the FIU 29Similar
Q3 2:53
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
7.6%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Alex Perry for 10 yds to the FIU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
18.3%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Alex Perry for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 17TD16 plays · 81 yds · 7:3189% → 99%
Q4 12:16
3RD & 12
OWN 17
+36
11.2%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Kyre Duplessis for 36 yds to the FIU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+9
9.7%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Sean Wilson for 9 yds to the FIU 38Similar
Q4 12:16
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+6
9.4%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Viron Ellison Jr. for 6 yds to the FIU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
1.0%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Viron Ellison Jr. for 9 yds for a TD (Nate Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 18DOWNS16 plays · 74 yds · 4:451% → 1%
Q4 4:45
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+16
1.2%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Alex Perry for 16 yds to the FIU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 14
OWN 41
+3
1.2%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Devonte Lyons for 3 yds to the FIU 44Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+9
1.2%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dallas Payne for 9 yds to the DEL 47Similar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
1.3%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Devonte Lyons for 5 yds to the DEL 40Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+2
1.4%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Devonte Lyons for 2 yds to the DEL 38Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+9
1.4%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Devonte Lyons for 9 yds to the DEL 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
1.5%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Jackson Verdugo for 6 yds to the DEL 23Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+18
1.5%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Jackson Verdugo for 18 yds to the DEL 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:53
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Nick Laboy for 14 yds for a TD (Nate Reed KICK)
-20.6
TD · Q4 12:22
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Alex Perry for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+10.8
TD · Q2 4:26
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Nick Laboy for 2 yds for a TD (Nate Reed KICK)
-9.7